The Syndicate

Echo

Well, this is fucked. I know I’ve done this endgame a disservice; it hasn’t been because I’m bad but due to RL shit.

Guess we’ve lost the game. Well played, baddie.

Echo

The only thing I really don't understand is why a mafia Bravo would leave me alive in this situation when I was just suspecting him last phase.

Echo

Honestly both of you sound genuine AF and otherwise I'd be pretty torn right now, but I'm pretty sure it's Bravo based on the doctor claim, so yeah.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:14 am I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.

It's reconcilable pretty easily IMO. I realized I hadn't considered you to be bad pretty much all game, which was a mistake, so in the back of my mind I started thinking about ways in which you could be the baddie. Then I officially started catching up on the thread, and when I got to your post, it sort of came together and I genuinely began to tinfoil on you, though I admittedly played it up a bit in terms of the intensity to gauge exactly how you and Alpha would respond.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.

LOL, well, this made my decision for me. You're clearly lying.

Echo

Well, that was a weird kill target. RIP Alpha, you rocked this game and we'll avenge your death.

Echo

Well, I have to go. Best of luck. Hopefully the game will be over when I return but I'm not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, all.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:58 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:54 pm

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf

but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.
You may have already explained, but it's easier to talk in real-time: what makes Golf the lowest rainbow rank for you?

It's a new placement, actually, as of right now. POE basically. Your response to my poo thing seemed legit and Alpha has appeared pretty genuine throughout this phase as well. Now I feel like it's my turn to tinfoil Golf, lol. I suppose Golf's suspicion of Alpha did seem a bit forced and the interactions with the "baddies" may be the worst. It's probably recency bias based on which one of you I've most recently interacted with.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

Yeah, agreed.

I really understand your paranoia though; I keep running through all of you being bad, and pairs of you all being bad, and I technically can't rule any of them out even if I think a pair is unlikely. Hopefully that's not just wishful thinking.

Echo

I throw my hands up in the air at this point. I hope it's Delta and that just ends the game because otherwise we're pretty much losing since I can't seem to convince any of you all that it's not me.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:51 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.
Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf

but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.
Well.... tell me any other pair of players that could be a pair of mafia and I'll redact it.

Well, that's sort of my point I guess; I don't think there is a pair. But anyway, like I said, if there is a pair, if I were you I would think it's two people specifically not making a concerted effort at a power play. I guess you and Bravo or you and Golf are theoretically possible in that regard.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.
I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.

I'm not sure I even believe any of it; I just thought you have hardly gotten any heat all game and I had to come up with some explanation for your behavior if you are indeed the bad one.

Echo

I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:42 pm
Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:57 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:08 pm
Bravo wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:16 pm I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.
Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.
The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.
I guess I just don't understand why that makes the theory of Wilgy-as-Juliet more mafia-indicative than town?
When there is an "out there" theory in the thread and one of the mafia members (Echo in this scenario) feels the need to talk shit about it without naming anyone, it gives me the impression of there having been a dialogue about that theory (or the strategy behind employing the theory) outside the thread. I admit that it's a rather tinfoil notion, but it's something that I think warrants discussion.

Oh, okay, I got what you're saying now. Yeah, that is pretty tinfoily, but I get your point.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.

I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:18 pm Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:10 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:27 pm This is a lot of words to just say "everyone is town, I guess it's Delta, and if not it's Hotel, and reassessment will be necessary but I'm not really doing any of it".
Hell no.

First of all, what you've done in this accusation is essentially disparage the POE strategy as suspicious without naming it. I didn't just lazily say "m'kay, everyone is town so lynch the lurker". I have put a crap load of analytic content into this thread which describes my reads and how they align to each theory of the game I've entertained. I have more reasons to view the non-Delta players as civilians than I do Delta: this is POE. After Delta, I have the fewest reasons to read you as a civilian.

Recall this:

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pm That said, I do agree with Bravo that POE is the way to go. The thing is: I'm feeling that most of the players currently in the game are town. Juliet, Foxtrot, and Delta were the only three I didn't feel compelled to read as particularly town, and now Foxtrot is gone, a choice which I can't wrap my head around.
You were aware of my approach and stated your agreement with it. What is the sudden beef you have?

Second of all, regarding the highlighted portion at the top, fuck that shit. How dare you. I have been assessing and reassessing everything I can think of in this game throughout the game. I have been quieter this day phase because it's Christmas Eve and, as I said, I have been away.

Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:58 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:20 pm I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie...
Why?

I mean, I really hope it's true, it really just comes down to I think Delta has not been active on the site recent enough to have submitted the most recent kill.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:42 pm I've switched my vote to Hotel. I'm certain this is the correct choice. If you still think Delta is the best choice then I understand. If we already have a solo wolf or we currently have a living wolf who is partnered with Delta then I think lynching Delta is an okay choice that won't lead to disaster, and if Golf and Hotel are actually the mafia together then I get to have the satisfaction of being right, which in some ways is almost better than a winners banner. B)

Dude, it's not me. I'm not quite sure why I seem to be the consensus pick after Delta, but it'll be a good way to throw the game.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:57 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:08 pm
Bravo wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:16 pm I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.
Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.
The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.

I guess I just don't understand why that makes the theory of Wilgy-as-Juliet more mafia-indicative than town?

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:11 pm Today:
Alpha has accused (almost) everyone
Bravo has accused Golf
Delta has accused no one
Golf has accused Delta and Alpha
Hotel has accused Delta and Bravo

I don't see an easily compatible pair other than Golf and Hotel, but if they're mafia then Hotel is going through unnecessary hoops to play around with us because in that scenario even if Bravo and I do our best to win we can only win by winning two ties in a row. Maybe that certainty has given hotel the confidence and security to accuse bravo with relatively little consequence, because as mentioned.... if the mafia is a pair of active players at this point of the game, the worst case scenario isn't actually very bad for them, given a 75% chance to win

I think if we have a pair of mafia left then it has to be team Hotel Golf. I also.... am no longer sure that we're even looking for a pair.

Well, I know I'm not bad, but also in my experience mafia members don't make grand plays like this either -- so even if there are 2 baddies left, which I don't think is the case but is surely possible, I wouldn't expect them to be making some super brazen power play.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:58 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:19 pm Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.
I need to think about this.

If Bravo is mafia then he has pulled wool over our eyes big time which is well within his skillset.... Probably?

I think the kills make a little more sense with the context that Golf is who she appears to be, if she is mafia. I've known that player to as mafia choose to kill less active players instead of confirmed/trusted players, or more active players, to keep the game interesting. Which would explain why Charlie died instead of me or Bravo.

Although..... Those kills would also be smart for a mafia bravo now that I think about it....... because Charlie was close to confirmed civ and I've been following along with Bravo's stuff fairly closely...........

Yeah, I thought the kills were Bravo-compatible, even if the Foxtrot one is still a bit weird.

Echo

Crap, sorry for cutting this so close. Got busier than anticipated.

Echo

Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:44 pm If Hotel is being authentic about their theory about pushing Bravo and isn't just gonna do a "just kidding" vote at the last minute then.... Maybe there really is a solo mafia?

It's certainly possible I'll switch my vote, but not because of "just kidding". I really want to see what Bravo has to say. Despite the numbers/math due to having an inactive, I really want to keep my vote there unless he or someone else convinces me otherwise. Right now I want to see Bravo die; I can't imagine that changing.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:42 pm I feel comforted by the fact that I am going to feel like an idiot no matter who the mafia is.

I know, right? Excellent game to whoever you are.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:36 pm Alright so whether this was your intent or not I feel a little less sure that GH is the baddie pair. Which makes our scenario much more complicated and a little more hopeful than I hoped/feared.

The fact that you think/thought this was some sort of concerted attempt at a powerplay makes me believe you are sincere, else I would be questioning you harder right now as well. Let's win this thing.

Echo

Another thing that bothers me about Bravo now that I think about it is he's basically either soft or hard-pocketed all three of us throughout the game, yeah? He's at least soft town-read Golf and me all game. And he's NEVER expressed a single concern about Alpha. Explains why we're all still here.

Bravo is bad.

Echo

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:02 pm A current rainbow:

Alpha

Golf

Delta

Bravo

Actually, switch Golf and Delta if there's only 1 baddie.

If there's 2, keep it as is.

Echo

And here are Bravo's interactions with Echo:

Bravo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:37 pm
Echo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:03 am We only get information if the Oracle gets nightkilled. As information-starved letters, the clear path is to out the Oracle so that they can be nightkilled. I am the Oracle.
I don't get it. Why claim that right now?

Bravo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:03 pm
Echo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:55 pm Why not now?
I question the strategic utility and the sensibility of blurting the claim as you did.

Bravo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:13 pm
Echo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:08 pm I think it's less likely the Mafia will kill me because they don't want info out there. Also, it was a little spontaneous. Tell me about a better way for more strategic utility.
The spontaneity I won't argue. The first thing you said there is my concern. If that comes to fruition the role is useless, right?

This is a weaksauce way to express a concern. It's not particularly telling, but I could see teammates talking to each other ITT like this.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:36 pm People I wouldn't vote for today: Alpha, India, Juliet

Bravo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:33 pm Re: Juliet, I've appreciated that the rapping exists at all. In light of the discussion of ways to make life harder for the disguiser, such as adopting a distinctive style which will be more difficult for an interloper to replicate, the rapping method seems like an applicable effort.

I can at least agree that the hunting effort contained within the rapping is limited.

Echo

I'm looking at Bravo's ISO as we speak and if we work with the assumption that Echo and Juliet are bad as well, Bravo looks bad Day 1 with respect to Juliet.

Echo

Thinking on it, I still stand by my Bravo assessment. He's spewing town reads everywhere and not solving anything. He should die.

Echo

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:00 pm If Delta could just play the fucking game they signed up for or get replaced, that'd be ideal for us all, but as it stands we have an elephant in the room that's causing a difficult situation. IMO we really need to start lynching inactives earlier at this site, but that's a discussion for another time and place.

I just realized I should add to this, I apologize, sprityo -- this is not at all a comment on you or your game. This is an awesome game. I love it. Inactive situations happen. I know firsthand how difficult it is to deal with them from a host's perspective, so I hope you don't take this as a slight on your hosting ability.

Echo

A current rainbow:

Alpha

Golf

Delta

Bravo

Echo

If Delta could just play the fucking game they signed up for or get replaced, that'd be ideal for us all, but as it stands we have an elephant in the room that's causing a difficult situation. IMO we really need to start lynching inactives earlier at this site, but that's a discussion for another time and place.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:55 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:22 pmSince when am I not considering Golf as mafia? Why are you putting words in my mouth?
It just seems like you aren't. We're at a crucial moment in the game and it's important to consider everyone as suspects.
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:44 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:30 pmwe are probably already in lylo.
Why probably? I assume you think Echo was bad, but not Juliet, why? If you already explained this at length and I'm forgetting, my apologies. I haven't had as much time to devote to this game as I would have liked so I may be out of the loop a bit.
I actually just have 0 faith in my own scum hunting ability... And trusting that we were right about something uncertain from the past is a good way to get tricked in the future.

Well, I don't want to take away from the spirit of the game being sockpuppet, but I knew instantly who Golf was from the moment the game started and it's a person I know better than nearly everyone else here. And everything Golf has done has seemed genuine AF. But I have been wondering off and on all game whether Golf is bad, I just haven't really had the time or the distinct motivation to do so before this critical point in time. I'm still considering it, but I'm feeling Bravo being bad right now.

And if there are 2 baddies, like you're suggesting, then if Bravo is 1... I'm not sure who the second one is, but I suppose it could be Golf or Delta for that matter.

Echo

I've really, really thought you were town all game, Golf, but now even you're starting to make me wonder. I agree with your logic and can understand why you would go for a Delta lynch for that reason, but can you really fathom no reason that I would be a townie right now trying to reassess Bravo? I also am starting to find your line of attack of Alpha a bit dubious even though he should be subject for reassessment as well.

I was actually starting to think Alpha looked bad as I initially caught up, but it's that post of Bravo's that really caught my eye. That's not a townie Bravo post. Not in any universe.

Echo

Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:50 pm Hotel going after Bravo is a bad look imo...

But the numbers still support a Delta lynch. I'm not moving.

How the hell is it a bad look? Why isn't anyone assessing Bravo at all? He isn't even doing anything. Meanwhile, I'm the one that we all know is going to be lynched in a final LYLO situation if we only have a lone baddie and this goes onto another phase because somehow I became the default along the line, and you and Alpha are at each other's throats. Bravo's post is classic sit back and watch baddie.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:42 pm Please tell me more about the Bravo is bad theory

Well, think about it. We're essentially at endgame now, right? What's the best course of action for a mafia member to take right now, especially if that mafia member is a lone baddie and that baddie is sitting in a good position (deepwolf)? 9 times out of 10, the best course of action is to go with the path of least resistance. I've been willing to townread Bravo all game because 1) I know who is behind the sock (it's evident, at least to me), and 2) he's been putting forth an incredible effort to solve the game.

But it suddenly hit me reading his most recent giant post, what is he really solving? He's literally just going with the flow, and it's the endgame. Townies freak out during the endgame. That's what you're doing. That's what Golf is doing. That's what I'm doing right now. Bravo's content to just go with the flow that Golf presented, and if Delta is town and he is a lone baddie, then he'll just kill you or Golf and convince the other person to vote for me tomorrow. He's not finding any reasons for any of us to be bad, just setting up the easiest path to victory. The Bravo I know would be trying as hard as possible to see every conceivable perspective of each person being bad; he'd be garnering reactions and would be cautious of townclearing anyone until the very end. He may have been chugging out ISOs and such earlier in the game, and he says it's all about "reassessment", but what is he doing right now, when the sense of urgency should be at the maximum? Nothing.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:42 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:28 pm I'm starting to think Bravo is bad.
Oh. Huh.......
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:23 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:07 am
golf wrote:1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.
I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.
Preparing for the worst case scenario is great.

Here's the thing though. How probable is it that we have two mafia members left versus one? I don't think it's probable.
There is absolutely no downside to voting under the assumption that there are two baddies left. If there's actually a solo baddie left and we pick the wrong one then we get one more chance tomorrow. That's what I've been saying. The probability depends on whether or not we were correct about Juliet and to a lesser extent Kilo, and I want to hope that we were, I really do, but if we weren't correct then we risk mafia on dunking us today.

There is a downside though, right, since Delta is inactive? It means that would normally be a 2-1 LYLO is in essence a 1-1 standoff. And usually when I've played in games 1-1 standoff means either the baddie wins automatically or it's a coin-toss. That's essentially game over.

I'd love to get the game over with today, I'm with you. Don't get me wrong. But what do we do about Delta if we're wrong today and there is only 1 baddie left? Then we're screwed.

All of that said, I think it's more important to think about casing each other as much as possible right now. I've felt like all of you (except Delta) are heavily town all game, but now here we are. At least 1 of you isn't.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:30 pm
Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:20 pmI'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie... so unless there are two baddies (again, not feeling it, but possible), unfortunately I think it will be a mislynch. Nonetheless, this makes sense to me. I'm willing to vote Delta just because it makes 0 sense to leave an inactive player in LYLO because that's a death sentence.
we are probably already in lylo.

Why probably? I assume you think Echo was bad, but not Juliet, why? If you already explained this at length and I'm forgetting, my apologies. I haven't had as much time to devote to this game as I would have liked so I may be out of the loop a bit.

Echo

Okay, nevermind, I'll be here for a little while after all, but I'm multitasking and I'll randomly vanish at some point to return in the evening FYI.

Echo

I'm voting Bravo. Be back later.

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:26 pm
Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:28 amAnd my problem with you right now is you are pushing a very illogical and risky lynch. I know you don't know my role if you are civ, but I do and that is why I am sure of this fact. And if you are the deep wolf you've got to paint Hotel and I as bad because you might have to convince Bravo or the other one of us that it's the other person. So I am I the same place you are. I really want to believe you are tinfoiling but you are making it really hard.
It's not really illogical or risky at all. 2 players suddenly show an unprecedented amount of unity as soon as we get to endgame? That's bad news. This isn't tinfoil. If you can show me evidence that you and Hotel aren't mafia together then maybe that could put me closer to believing in you.

The worst part of this is that even if Bravo and I do work together and align our votes the best we can hope for is two ties, and we have to win both of them to stop the mafia from instantly winning.

What fucking unity are you talking about? This is getting annoying. Stop acting like we're the same person.

Echo

Think about it. Alpha and Golf up in here freaking out over the direction of the lynch. Bravo has been in cruise control mode. If there's only one baddie, it's him, and he's content to let us bring each other down.

Echo

I'm starting to think Bravo is bad.

Echo

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:50 am Christmas stuff is keeping me quite busy. I'm going to struggle to be in this thread much until later tonight approaching the deadline. Some quick thoughts on the discussion at hand:

- At face value, I think Golf's push for a Delta lynch right now looks more like a civilian concern than a con to push a game-ending mislynch. Golf's most recent posts just don't look manipulative to me.

- I don't think Alpha looks bad for being worried about that game-ending mislynch scenario. Prior to the start of this discussion Alpha had stated an intent to view this game through the lens of having two living baddies right now for the sake of maximum caution, and I'd say we're seeing the results of that mindset.

- I examined the Hotel/Golf pairing before this discussion and wasn't feeling it. I acknowledge there is some WIFOM in that conclusion, but it's where I was before. I think that right now, a modification of that conclusion based upon the Delta-game-ending-mislynch theory would fall into the realm of tinfoil, and I am just not inclined to go there.

- If Hotel and Golf are both bad, Juliet wasn't bad (if Echo was). That notion gives me problems. Juliet quit at the first indication of having received votes (without any of the typical civilian guilt-tripping) and said nothing through the finalization of the lynch. That is pretty much textbook for concession behavior. If Juliet wasn't bad, then that was truly a damaging and frankly unfair way to handle that situation. I have my doubts.

- Golf is right that even a civilian Delta presents issues in an end game scenario as a projected non-voter. Consider even a Hotel/Golf pairing: we lynch one and the other proceeds to an endgame phase with Delta alive. The civilian voting power in that phase can only be one vote if Delta doesn't contribute, which means at best the game can only be won in a 1-1 coin flip.

I think we're forced to make a judgment call here, and any decision is going to come with a degree of risk. That's the nature of this no-reveals setup. We cannot know for sure where we stand, but we still have to act according to the theories we develop. We treat the game probabalistically rather than deterministically. So the theory I feel the most confident about is as follows:

- Echo was bad.
- Juliet was bad.
- There is one living baddie.
- Delta is a prime candidate. After that, Juliet and Echo interactions and behavioral interpretation at face value take precedence. Based on where we stand right now with recent discussion in tow, my first guess after Delta would be Hotel. Continual dialogue and reassessment will be necessary through the finish.

I'm going to place a vote for Delta. I encourage you all to keep talking it out and I will try my best to get here early enough to engage it in real-time before the deadline.

This is a lot of words to just say "everyone is town, I guess it's Delta, and if not it's Hotel, and reassessment will be necessary but I'm not really doing any of it".

Echo

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:33 am
golf wrote:The absolute only risk here is if two people are bad and neither one is Delta, I just really don't see that as likely no matter how I dice it. Actions do not support that theory.
I guess my problem with this is exactly that. If you and Hotel are mafia then you'd want to push exactly this narrative, because if neither of you (in that circumstance) gets lynched today then this game is yours. The alternative to lynching Delta would be convincing Bravo or me to vote for the other, which would be significantly harder so.... Delta. Right? In the scenario where you and Hotel are the last living mafias, I believe that would be the best move, or at least it's what I would do.

You're reading either desperate baddie or tinfoiling townie. I can't decide which.

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