The Syndicate

Nah the setup was fine, I don't think it was imbalanced. 9v3 is fair if civs have a lot of roles.

Never mind that the SK theory also opened the possibility that the Bob lynch didn't clear Quin.

From my perspective, those were the only ways I could make Quin look worse than me. I knew I was a civ, and I knew Mac and Colin were lock civs, so I had to come up with a way to kill the evidence that Quin was a civ too.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:35 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:23 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:58 pm There's no need to go off on wild speculation. You know someone is killing. If he's the last mafia or the serial killer, WHO GIVES A SHIT? It's the same thing from the civilian perspective, is it not?

I don’t think so. The methods one employs to find a mafioso are often entirely ineffective for a serial killer.

Interactions? Irrelevant, no teammates.

Hunting sincerity? They don’t know who’s bad either.

The only “reliable” evidence available is who was killed.

I was speaking in context: Look at what I came up with before I got lynched. Mac or Quin had to die.

Whether they were mafia or SKs was irrelevant at that point.

Wrong. We were analysing claims. Everyone thought it was mechanically impossible for Quin to be mafia, so the SK theory opened another possibility.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:55 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:22 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:17 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:08 pm Fourth game I get mislynched in lylo, but only the fifth game I get mislynched overall.

It's always lylo. If I don't get night killed, I live to lylo. And if I do, I make the civs lose the game.

Mafias of the world, always let me live until lylo, and town will never win a game in this site again.

I will give you a piece of advice:

DO: "Epignosis was a civilian and said Mac or Quin, so we should discuss those options."

DON'T: "OMG SKS! SKS EVERYWHERE."

It could have been a SK and you know it.

I made a post listing every possiblity for mafia/indies and got dismissed as "DDL only wrote that because he is desperate".

I even listed why Quin was not cleared as mafia. Twice. Nobody even quoted my post.

You weren't the only one that got ignored. The civilian faction pretty much chose to use Bob's lynch as the sole piece of valid evidence.

And I still believe there is something in my personality that makes people trust me but remain just suspicious enough to turn against me at the end of the game. I wish people would start paying attention to that.

No. If I thought there was a serial killer, I would have said so. I didn't. Because there was not serial killer killing, and it didn't need to be brought up.

There's one person killing.

Why even call him a serial killer and get people angry with you? Just call him the last mafia and lynch him accordingly. There's no reason to change the name.

Because I've played games in this site, specifically games hosted by you, where the SK can only kill after the mafia is eliminated.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:40 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:24 pm I was wondering what the reaction would be if I was lynched for DDL's theory that I was the SK and flipped mafia. It was really exciting.

The thought crossed my mind to chaos vote you at the last second and make it a tie but it would have been too embarrassing if DDL did turn out to be mafia.

I guess one problem is that we all followed Occam's Razor here (in the Epi lynch too, and arguably the Reywas one too) and Occam's Razor didn't work this time. The fact you were afraid of letting me win shows you were afraid of defying the Razor. You even used the world "chaos" for that.

All it takes is one bold move by the mafia for traditional logic to stop working. And Quin made two bold moves: bussing Bob, and claiming bulletproof. He trapped us under traditional logic and we didn't escape.

We could have used our tinfoils and cracked this down better. I am guilty of it too, in the other lynches.

I gotta give it to Jay, he was doing that work, considering everything and not discarding any possibility. Mafia made a good call on killing him.

Welp, thanks for the game Sloonei!

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:23 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:19 pm Hey mine was working pretty well so far.

I played GoC17 and Fire Emblem at once, noticed the difference in Quins and called both right. Then I called you bad when you were the cat in World Asunder. So I had reason to be confident.

I guess the error is that I stopped paying attention to you after day 1, when you joined that damn PoE. Shouldn't have.

Colin was right on something: the PoE wasn't universal. Though making a kill was still the better call, imo.

True. But in the case of FE, I remember the biggest thing you had against me is that you thought I was lying about not targetting or something - which wasn't a lie at all.

No, my beef was that your motivation was BS.

If you are mafia and not targetting with something, thats not my problem. But your excuse for not doing it as a civ was weak.

Cuz if I play another game as a civ and someone goes "DDL is suspicious but he looks genuine so I'll let him live FOR NOW" I'm gonna flip.

This "for now" seals the result of the game.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:17 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:08 pm Fourth game I get mislynched in lylo, but only the fifth game I get mislynched overall.

It's always lylo. If I don't get night killed, I live to lylo. And if I do, I make the civs lose the game.

Mafias of the world, always let me live until lylo, and town will never win a game in this site again.

I will give you a piece of advice:

DO: "Epignosis was a civilian and said Mac or Quin, so we should discuss those options."

DON'T: "OMG SKS! SKS EVERYWHERE."

It could have been a SK and you know it.

I made a post listing every possiblity for mafia/indies and got dismissed as "DDL only wrote that because he is desperate".

I even listed why Quin was not cleared as mafia. Twice. Nobody even quoted my post.

You weren't the only one that got ignored. The civilian faction pretty much chose to use Bob's lynch as the sole piece of valid evidence.

And I still believe there is something in my personality that makes people trust me but remain just suspicious enough to turn against me at the end of the game. I wish people would start paying attention to that.

Hey mine was working pretty well so far.

I played GoC17 and Fire Emblem at once, noticed the difference in Quins and called both right. Then I called you bad when you were the cat in World Asunder. So I had reason to be confident.

I guess the error is that I stopped paying attention to you after day 1, when you joined that damn PoE. Shouldn't have.

Colin was right on something: the PoE wasn't universal. Though making a kill was still the better call, imo.

Well time to bury the Quindar I guess.

Fourth game I get mislynched in lylo, but only the fifth game I get mislynched overall.

It's always lylo. If I don't get night killed, I live to lylo. And if I do, I make the civs lose the game.

Mafias of the world, always let me live until lylo, and town will never win a game in this site again.

This hurts because I spent a full game watching a pack of clueless civs, and mafia, constantly assume I would never add an indie to the setup.

You would think the experience would have been branded on their skins.

But here we are again, assuming indies are less likely to be in the game than a third mafia, for no rational reason.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:09 pm 3 people who were on the Bob train vs. 1 that wasn't.

Personally that's enough for me.

And if Sloonei decide to put an indie in the setup... you just throw the game?

If it helps I'm already preparing all the ways I can go "I told you so" after this is over.

Fuck DF pointed out how Quin could be mafia and it's not hard. Let's say they shoot someone and it failed. Quin claims bulletproof, on the hopes there is not another town BP (a risky gambit but not too much).

At least I can't be SK myself (my ability makes zero sense for a SK)

It's Quin.

I don't even know how to see on a SK, it's not like he can be linked to his teammates, and I was reading him genuQuin so far.

I guess what I can ask is that you don't immediately assume a SK is any more unlikely than a mafia (it's not) and check whether I like more sincere than Quin or not, cuz I'm pretty sure I saw some of you calling me sincere multiple times.

Heck, DH only won because the entire player base thought a serial killer was craaaaaazy.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:44 pm I'm leaning much more towards DDL than Quin. DDL's recent posts come across like he's throwing everything at the wall and hoping something sticks so he can get out of the hot seat. The SK scenario he keeps pushing strikes me as unlikely in a relatively small game like this, especially seeing as his version of the SK is pretty weak if he can't do anything until the Mafia are eliminated. Much more likely to me is that DDL is bad and gave me a reload to gain cred (thanks for that).

I can't believe people are calling serial killers "unlikely" after Hogwarts.

[vote/Quin[/vote]

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:13 pm It's still true? As in you're right I am doing all those things but I really do get mislynched?

Concede?

The resources you wasted writing that post could have fed 0.00001 children in Africa for a year.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:48 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:41 pm I bet nobody in this site has gotten mislynched more times in lylo versus any other phase than me. It's a weird statistics but it's a thing. It's happened 3 times so far.

Everyone just spends the whole game suspecting me but letting cold logic keep me alive. Then when they get desperate they throw logic to the window and go "screw it DDL is a weirdo let'st kill him".

Mafias of the world, keep me alive till lylo in every game. It pays off.

This is somewhere between misrepresentation and guiltripping. There's not a compelling logical case for you as a civ and the references to past mislynches reads like an appeal to emotion. This only makes me feel more confident in DDL as our last villain.

It's still true. I have the kind of personality that makes people want to lynch me in lylo more than others. I could make a statistics for that.

I mean, I like being able to come here, read everything, comment on everything, make a vote, and spend the rest of the day doing something else.

Don't try to take that away from me.

If after the game anyone wants to argue with me about the importance of spending over 8 hours a day looking at mafia threads, I'm in. Let's see what points you bring.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:02 am I'm not one to sit around on a critical day and not post anything. That's more of a you thing going by recent history.

Ok can you stop giving me shit for not being active all day?

This isn't a real time game. It lasts 24 hours so we can all come at whatever point we are available.

Not being active all day is NAI, and you know it.

Right now it's like 60% chance Quin is a SK, 20% chance Quin is mafia, 20% chance someone else is mafia or SK.

Mac is telling the truth about being a tracker. A mafia tracker in this game is unlikely. An indie tracker is ridiculous. Never mind the bussing godfather stuff.

DF claimed doctor. There is a strongman. But Quin's bulletproof role and sabie's commuter already cover for the strongman. But Doctor is such a classic role I don't see why there wouldn't be one, and it would be a super risky claim for a mafia/indie DF to make.

Colin killed a mafioso. Colin being mafia is madness. Colon being SK is possible but would have to explain why he wasn't active before. Having to wait for mafia to be gone doesn't explain it. Limited-shot is too weak for a SK. Maybe he tried but failed both times (stopped by DF/Quin/sabie roles) so he went and made a gambit to claim vig so he can keep killing? But if he hit town instead of mafia, he would have to stop killing again since he had already implied he had a single shot. Unless he asked me to reload his shot, but that's still a day of wait and he didn't know how many times I could do that. Sounds too convoluted.

Quin claimed BP. SKs are often BP. If he is a SK, the scenario above is way simpler. Mafia failed to kill him so he claimed BP. He can't kill until mafia is gone. His first kill will be tonight. If he is mafia this gambit poses the risk of being counter-claimed by a town BP. Town BPs aren't super common though (they tend to be OP). Then again, the SK's claim also risks being cc'd (but two bulletproofs and a commuter in a game? Meh)

It has to be Quin.

Ok so there is a post from Jay where he implies he watched Mac Night 2. This post comes one day before Mac's tracker claim.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:42 pm Epi, what'd you do to Mac?

Mac said he watched him on night 1 too though, and I'm finding no clues from Jay about that. And Jay did not deny Mac's claim that he targeted Mac. So Mac must be telling the truth.

I used my last reload shot, so sorry Colin I can't give it to you so you can kill me.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:40 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:59 pm @DFaraday are you a doctor or a jailkeeper?

I'm a doctor, and I did protect someone on Night 2. I don't know whether I protected the person the Mafia targeted (or if they tried to kill at all), so I can't say whether Quin is telling the truth just for that.

I'm actually decent at Mafia when it's in the endgame, so give me a little while and I'm going to come back with my thoughts after I've caught up.

You have a point, if mafia Quin sees a kill fail, he doesn't know why it failed, but he knows that if he claims bulletproof, a doctor or roleblocker has no way of confirming whether the kill failed because of their action or not.

The only risk is if the kill did fail because of a bulletproof, and they learned about having lost their BP vest, like Quin himself claimed. Then they could counterclaim. But bulletproof civ isn't a very common role.

When I first joined this site, serial killers who weren't allowed to kill until the mafia was gone was the standard here.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:53 pm Is it really cold logic that there is a SKer, rather than you’re the last person in a sensible PoE?

Well I know I'm a civ so

And what exactly is crazy about a SK in a mafia game?

I bet nobody in this site has gotten mislynched more times in lylo versus any other phase than me. It's a weird statistics but it's a thing. It's happened 3 times so far.

Everyone just spends the whole game suspecting me but letting cold logic keep me alive. Then when they get desperate they throw logic to the window and go "screw it DDL is a weirdo let'st kill him".

Mafias of the world, keep me alive till lylo in every game. It pays off.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:25 pm Look man, if you're a civ and right about this theory then hats off to you for being the only one to see it. From my seat I can't see anything but this.

Ok I urge you to not let this be the end of it. I don't want a repeat of Firefly (where I cracked the entire mafia on lylo and someone voted me for arbitrary reasons).

At least spend some time considering Quin to be a SK. We have two days for that.

Fuck it Jay speculated on that in the first page. Remember that post me, you and Epi roasted? Yeah.

Quin is a SK, lynch him maybe.

Well after doing some ISOs or whatver, I mean.

I dont really like the other 9 theories.

That said I'm personally offended if you think I can't elaborate most of it in half an hour.

You should all be more honest about your unwillingness to make a huge effort on this game, imo. It's healthy. And makesyour career last longer.

I did some thinking about it during the day.

But thinking takes a level of effort, and sitting down to type it in a world where Epi is still alive takes another level of effort.

Don't blame yourself too much, I made a conscious decision to vote for Epi and only come back after the day ended because I thought he was the Occam's Razor vote.

Now the razor is dead and we have to shave using a kitchen knife.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:19 pm I do like bastard roles.

The type that is fun for other people not for you.

I'll be honest mafia tracker is dumb unless the mafia has a gazillion abilities and the host has ran out of design space (i. e. Hogwarts)

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:08 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:06 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:04 pm Ok hear me out:

1- Quin is a bulletproof serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

2- Colin is a serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

Pick one.

How can I have killed nova if I don’t have the ability to kill yet?

Notwithstanding he literally said that the SK kills after the Mafia is gone and then proceeded to make out like the Mafia still need solving.

Good game DDL.

No I didn't.

Here is what i'm trying to say.

We either have 1 mafia or 1 hostile indie left (aka serial killer in most games).

If it's a mafia, one of that has to be true:

- I used my ability to reaload civ shots instead of mafia shots, including a watcher (aka the best investigation ability ever) and a doctor.
- Mafia skipped a kill on purpose just so Quin could fake claim BP.
- Mafia had an extra kill, and Colin used it on a teammate.
- There is no civ doctor in the game, and the strongman role is meant just to bypass Quin
- There is a mafia tracker and you bussed your godfather to save yourself

All 5 of those are crazy. #3 is fucking insane. The others are ridiculous too.

Now if it's a serial killer:

- I'm a serial killer who can reload shots from other players (even crazier than the mafia DDL theory)
- Quin is a bulletproof SK who starts killing after mafia is gone.
- Colin is a SK who could kill before but not every night, or chose not to kill every night.
- There is no civ doctor in the game, and the strongman role is meant just to bypass Quin (same as above)
- Mac is a SK with a tracking ability

Most of those are still insane, but the Quin theory is not. Other than the fact I'm civ reading Quin. But I trust logic before I trust my civ reads.

Either way, I urge you people analyse all 10 of those and see if you agree or disagree with me on which ones are more unlikely.

If you dismiss what I just wrote and just say "lol DDL got caught now he's saying crazy stuff" I'll give you a bastard role in my next game.

Mac stop playing like Epi. Also take more than 10 seconds to read before posting. You just misinterpreted a post of mine and now I have to wait time fixing that.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:08 pm I dunno why you did this. You should have just stfu and tried to make a case against me.

Cuz you should all be civs and yet this thing isn't over.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:07 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:05 pm That's the SK side of things.

The mafia side of things is also possible but afaik we are all soft confirmed.

You're not confirmed. Your role could easily be a Mafia role.

Neither are you. Mafia trackers are a thing.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:06 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:04 pm Ok hear me out:

1- Quin is a bulletproof serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

2- Colin is a serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

Pick one.

How can I have killed nova if I don’t have the ability to kill yet?

Brain fart.

Yeah you are probably vig then. Unless it's a x-shot SK. But that would be underpowered as fuck.

Our of the two scenarios above I'd go with Colin because he was shady as hell yesterday.

Also muh genuquin read.

That's the SK side of things.

The mafia side of things is also possible but afaik we are all soft confirmed.

Ok hear me out:

1- Quin is a bulletproof serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

2- Colin is a serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

Pick one.

I could do that but it will take triple the time since it's not my role. Will just doublecheck tomorrow.