Community Mafia [GAME OVER]

[ColinIsCool]

I don’t see a world where a civ comes in here and thinks, “Welp, everybody’s gotta be town so it’s gotta be a pretty convoluted SK now.” Are you ok?

[MacDougall]

That's the SK side of things.

The mafia side of things is also possible but afaik we are all soft confirmed.

You're not confirmed. Your role could easily be a Mafia role.

Neither are you. Mafia trackers are a thing.

Fuck Mafia trackers being a thing. Trackers are an easy ass fake claim. You don't even know how to cast doubt on me properly hahaha.

I'm a civilian for the same reason everyone removed me from the pool on day 2. Don't let time mix you up. You're POE jammed as far as I'm concerned.

[MacDougall]

Colin please tell me you're a two shot vig lol

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Mac stop playing like Epi. Also take more than 10 seconds to read before posting. You just misinterpreted a post of mine and now I have to wait time fixing that.

[ColinIsCool]

Colin please tell me you're a two shot vig lol

Nope, I hung up my guns already.

[MacDougall]

Mac stop playing like Epi. Also take more than 10 seconds to read before posting. You just misinterpreted a post of mine and now I have to wait time fixing that.

Playing like Epi lol.

[MacDougall]

Colin shot a Mafia
Mac got a Mafia Godfather lynched on day one
Quin got shot at and lived
DFaraday has a bulletproof claim
DDL has a role that refills chambers

One of those things is not like the other.

[ColinIsCool]

Ayo Quin what are you thinking?

[MacDougall]

Colin please tell me you're a two shot vig lol

Nope, I hung up my guns already.

DDL can you put another bullet in his chamber so he can shoot you please?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok hear me out:

1- Quin is a bulletproof serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

2- Colin is a serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

Pick one.

How can I have killed nova if I don’t have the ability to kill yet?

Notwithstanding he literally said that the SK kills after the Mafia is gone and then proceeded to make out like the Mafia still need solving.

Good game DDL.

No I didn't.

Here is what i'm trying to say.

We either have 1 mafia or 1 hostile indie left (aka serial killer in most games).

If it's a mafia, one of that has to be true:

- I used my ability to reaload civ shots instead of mafia shots, including a watcher (aka the best investigation ability ever) and a doctor.
- Mafia skipped a kill on purpose just so Quin could fake claim BP.
- Mafia had an extra kill, and Colin used it on a teammate.
- There is no civ doctor in the game, and the strongman role is meant just to bypass Quin
- There is a mafia tracker and you bussed your godfather to save yourself

All 5 of those are crazy. #3 is fucking insane. The others are ridiculous too.

Now if it's a serial killer:

- I'm a serial killer who can reload shots from other players (even crazier than the mafia DDL theory)
- Quin is a bulletproof SK who starts killing after mafia is gone.
- Colin is a SK who could kill before but not every night, or chose not to kill every night.
- There is no civ doctor in the game, and the strongman role is meant just to bypass Quin (same as above)
- Mac is a SK with a tracking ability

Most of those are still insane, but the Quin theory is not. Other than the fact I'm civ reading Quin. But I trust logic before I trust my civ reads.

Either way, I urge you people analyse all 10 of those and see if you agree or disagree with me on which ones are more unlikely.

If you dismiss what I just wrote and just say "lol DDL got caught now he's saying crazy stuff" I'll give you a bastard role in my next game.

[MacDougall]

I do like bastard roles.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'll be honest mafia tracker is dumb unless the mafia has a gazillion abilities and the host has ran out of design space (i. e. Hogwarts)

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I do like bastard roles.

The type that is fun for other people not for you.

[MacDougall]

See you are doing the right things here. Being all pragmatic. Buttering me up. Not coming out attacking me like Epi did. I want to trust and believe you. I wanted to tear Epi's head off.

If he had have acted like you he probably wouldn't have been lynched.

Bad [mention]Epignosis[/mention]. Smack for Epi.

[ColinIsCool]

[MacDougall]

Ok hear me out:

1- Quin is a bulletproof serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

2- Colin is a serial killer who starts killing after the mafia is gone.

Pick one.

How can I have killed nova if I don’t have the ability to kill yet?

Notwithstanding he literally said that the SK kills after the Mafia is gone and then proceeded to make out like the Mafia still need solving.

Good game DDL.

No I didn't.

Here is what i'm trying to say.

We either have 1 mafia or 1 hostile indie left (aka serial killer in most games).

If it's a mafia, one of that has to be true:

- I used my ability to reaload civ shots instead of mafia shots, including a watcher (aka the best investigation ability ever) and a doctor.
- Mafia skipped a kill on purpose just so Quin could fake claim BP.
- Mafia had an extra kill, and Colin used it on a teammate.
- There is no civ doctor in the game, and the strongman role is meant just to bypass Quin
- There is a mafia tracker and you bussed your godfather to save yourself

All 5 of those are crazy. #3 is fucking insane. The others are ridiculous too.

Now if it's a serial killer:

- I'm a serial killer who can reload shots from other players (even crazier than the mafia DDL theory)
- Quin is a bulletproof SK who starts killing after mafia is gone.
- Colin is a SK who could kill before but not every night, or chose not to kill every night.
- There is no civ doctor in the game, and the strongman role is meant just to bypass Quin (same as above)
- Mac is a SK with a tracking ability

Most of those are still insane, but the Quin theory is not. Other than the fact I'm civ reading Quin. But I trust logic before I trust my civ reads.

Either way, I urge you people analyse all 10 of those and see if you agree or disagree with me on which ones are more unlikely.

If you dismiss what I just wrote and just say "lol DDL got caught now he's saying crazy stuff" I'll give you a bastard role in my next game.

I won't say DDL got caught and now he's saying crazy stuff.

What I will say is that you thought long and hard about this and had this entire thing prepared before the Epi flip. This isn't off the cuff. The only way you do this is if you know Epi doesn't flip civ.

You also really laboured on the positive side of why your actions were civ and kind of brushed over the others.

Look man, if you're a civ and right about this theory then hats off to you for being the only one to see it. From my seat I can't see anything but this.

DDL is Mafia. His role is to reload his buddies. He didn't vote for his Godfather. He rationalised that the best use of his role was to make two civs feel more confident that he is a townie by giving them more shots.

I'm sorry, don't get mad, but I just can't buy your theory when this really obvious one is on the table.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Don't blame yourself too much, I made a conscious decision to vote for Epi and only come back after the day ended because I thought he was the Occam's Razor vote.

Now the razor is dead and we have to shave using a kitchen knife.

[MacDougall]

I wasn't saying I believe him. I was just complimenting him for the way he is coddling me.

[MacDougall]

Don't blame yourself too much, I made a conscious decision to vote for Epi and only come back after the day ended because I thought he was the Occam's Razor vote.

Now the razor is dead and we have to shave using a kitchen knife.

Yeah thanks man I really appreciate it. I was really hard on myself there for a minute and you helped me see the sunshine.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I did some thinking about it during the day.

But thinking takes a level of effort, and sitting down to type it in a world where Epi is still alive takes another level of effort.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

You should all be more honest about your unwillingness to make a huge effort on this game, imo. It's healthy. And makesyour career last longer.

[MacDougall]

Yeah I really don't feel like I put my best foot forward here. I should have managed to get the Mafia lynched on consecutive days instead of just the Godfather on the first one. Not good enough quite frankly.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

That said I'm personally offended if you think I can't elaborate most of it in half an hour.

[ColinIsCool]

I’m just kinda winging it and seeing what I can help with. I shot a guy, so that was cool.

[MacDougall]

Yeah maybe I should have also shot a guy and then I would have put in a better effort.

[MacDougall]

That said I'm personally offended if you think I can't elaborate most of it in half an hour.

No you aren't.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Quin is a SK, lynch him maybe.

Well after doing some ISOs or whatver, I mean.

I dont really like the other 9 theories.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Look man, if you're a civ and right about this theory then hats off to you for being the only one to see it. From my seat I can't see anything but this.

Ok I urge you to not let this be the end of it. I don't want a repeat of Firefly (where I cracked the entire mafia on lylo and someone voted me for arbitrary reasons).

At least spend some time considering Quin to be a SK. We have two days for that.

Fuck it Jay speculated on that in the first page. Remember that post me, you and Epi roasted? Yeah.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I bet nobody in this site has gotten mislynched more times in lylo versus any other phase than me. It's a weird statistics but it's a thing. It's happened 3 times so far.

Everyone just spends the whole game suspecting me but letting cold logic keep me alive. Then when they get desperate they throw logic to the window and go "screw it DDL is a weirdo let'st kill him".

Mafias of the world, keep me alive till lylo in every game. It pays off.

[ColinIsCool]

Is it really cold logic that there is a SKer, rather than you’re the last person in a sensible PoE?

[ColinIsCool]

A SKer who hasn’t yet killed, I might add.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Is it really cold logic that there is a SKer, rather than you’re the last person in a sensible PoE?

Well I know I'm a civ so

And what exactly is crazy about a SK in a mafia game?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

When I first joined this site, serial killers who weren't allowed to kill until the mafia was gone was the standard here.

[MacDougall]

I'm not one to sit around on a critical day and not post anything. That's more of a you thing going by recent history.

[DFaraday]

@DFaraday are you a doctor or a jailkeeper?

I'm a doctor, and I did protect someone on Night 2. I don't know whether I protected the person the Mafia targeted (or if they tried to kill at all), so I can't say whether Quin is telling the truth just for that.

I'm actually decent at Mafia when it's in the endgame, so give me a little while and I'm going to come back with my thoughts after I've caught up.

[Quin]

There was some insincerity to Quin's effort today I must admit. Starting his reverse trustfall with cleared town Colin was quite whack.

Considering barely anyone is ever even awake at the time I started doing it I didn't see a problem doing it alphabetically. Also that there was 12 hours left in EoD and plenty of time to complete it before crunch time. Also that I needed to do Colin to complete the process anyway. Also that I don't give a damn who's cleared or not when I'm trying to find mafia.

[Quin]

DFaraday has a bulletproof claim

Huh?

[Quin]

Ayo Quin what are you thinking?

I'm thinking DDL because when the confirmed doctor asks you to give them extra shots then that's exactly what you do. He doesn't get any points for boosting civilians.

[MacDougall]

DFaraday has a bulletproof claim

Huh?

There is a strongman. Ergo there is a doctor. DFaraday has claimed doctor. Nobody has countered it. He is untouchable. Ergo "bulletproof".

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@DFaraday are you a doctor or a jailkeeper?

I'm a doctor, and I did protect someone on Night 2. I don't know whether I protected the person the Mafia targeted (or if they tried to kill at all), so I can't say whether Quin is telling the truth just for that.

I'm actually decent at Mafia when it's in the endgame, so give me a little while and I'm going to come back with my thoughts after I've caught up.

You have a point, if mafia Quin sees a kill fail, he doesn't know why it failed, but he knows that if he claims bulletproof, a doctor or roleblocker has no way of confirming whether the kill failed because of their action or not.

The only risk is if the kill did fail because of a bulletproof, and they learned about having lost their BP vest, like Quin himself claimed. Then they could counterclaim. But bulletproof civ isn't a very common role.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I used my last reload shot, so sorry Colin I can't give it to you so you can kill me.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok so there is a post from Jay where he implies he watched Mac Night 2. This post comes one day before Mac's tracker claim.

Epi, what'd you do to Mac?

Mac said he watched him on night 1 too though, and I'm finding no clues from Jay about that. And Jay did not deny Mac's claim that he targeted Mac. So Mac must be telling the truth.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Mac is telling the truth about being a tracker. A mafia tracker in this game is unlikely. An indie tracker is ridiculous. Never mind the bussing godfather stuff.

DF claimed doctor. There is a strongman. But Quin's bulletproof role and sabie's commuter already cover for the strongman. But Doctor is such a classic role I don't see why there wouldn't be one, and it would be a super risky claim for a mafia/indie DF to make.

Colin killed a mafioso. Colin being mafia is madness. Colon being SK is possible but would have to explain why he wasn't active before. Having to wait for mafia to be gone doesn't explain it. Limited-shot is too weak for a SK. Maybe he tried but failed both times (stopped by DF/Quin/sabie roles) so he went and made a gambit to claim vig so he can keep killing? But if he hit town instead of mafia, he would have to stop killing again since he had already implied he had a single shot. Unless he asked me to reload his shot, but that's still a day of wait and he didn't know how many times I could do that. Sounds too convoluted.

Quin claimed BP. SKs are often BP. If he is a SK, the scenario above is way simpler. Mafia failed to kill him so he claimed BP. He can't kill until mafia is gone. His first kill will be tonight. If he is mafia this gambit poses the risk of being counter-claimed by a town BP. Town BPs aren't super common though (they tend to be OP). Then again, the SK's claim also risks being cc'd (but two bulletproofs and a commuter in a game? Meh)

It has to be Quin.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Right now it's like 60% chance Quin is a SK, 20% chance Quin is mafia, 20% chance someone else is mafia or SK.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'm not one to sit around on a critical day and not post anything. That's more of a you thing going by recent history.

Ok can you stop giving me shit for not being active all day?

This isn't a real time game. It lasts 24 hours so we can all come at whatever point we are available.

Not being active all day is NAI, and you know it.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

If after the game anyone wants to argue with me about the importance of spending over 8 hours a day looking at mafia threads, I'm in. Let's see what points you bring.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I mean, I like being able to come here, read everything, comment on everything, make a vote, and spend the rest of the day doing something else.

Don't try to take that away from me.

[ColinIsCool]

This might really just decide it all:

DDL is mafia

Tell me more.

Partly wanted in on the "blah is mafia" meme, partly sus of the way he latched onto your mechanics post. It was getting suspicion from other(s?), but for very different reasons than "JJJ is hiding behind mechanics talk" which is the typical accusation around that sort of thing. DDL expressed suspicion of a thing that other people found suspicious but for reasons that don't ring true. That makes my hunting instincts want to eat his face off.

We need to know if cbob is willing to bus this hard, this early. I’m going to look through some of his games and see.

[ColinIsCool]

I went through Cbob’s entire post history and couldn’t find a single example of him behaving as such. 2 points:

1. I skimmed at work, so I may have missed a game where he didn’t say much.

2. Some of these games were convoluted (Chicka Chicka, GoC 2017) and it’s hard for me to say as an outside observer what exactly was happening or even what his alignment was.

That said, there don’t seem to be a lot of games where cbob is mafia, so consider this exercise moot.

[ColinIsCool]

Checkpoint pg 9.