The Syndicate

I don't think DH looks like a civilian because of anything related to Long Con. That's a bad rationale, IMO. I do think he has behaved and hunted in a way that looks authentic though, and I think INH may have spewed him as a civilian. Let me find that thing again.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:06 pm That is a good point. Could be a secret dark arts ability, could be another patronus but it is not likely to be I suppose.

Dragon D. Luffy Were mafia roles assigned randomly as well as Hogwarts abilities, or did you have a hand in manually balancing it?

A quick skim tells me these are applicable, so this doesn't bear quite the reductive power I'd hoped:

Protego
Wingardium Leviosa
Invigoration Draught
Felix Felicis
Elixir of Life

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:57 pm...now that's the question. He claimed odd night vig on D3(?) and no counter claim so far. Only possible if he really is the vig or one of the dead townies was the real vig.

I thought he claimed earlier, though I can't recall. I'll just go spelunking in his ISO and get that for you.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:58 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:53 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:51 pm Unless you're referring to other mafia not having these abilities, which... Might be a good point? But I'm not sure where to go with it.

Do you think it's probable that two mafia members can summon a patronus?

Do you think Quin did summon a patronus if he's lying scum?

(To answer your question, I have no idea. There are 14 regular abilities in the game, and each person has two. If DDL randomly assigned the mafia stuff, I'd say yes, it's very possible two would have patronus. But if he distributed abilities evenly, INH would have the only one)

I dunno. If he didn't summon a patronus though, that means he targeted Long Con with something else. That would seem to be an important detail, yeah? What does a mafia Quin do to a mafia Long Con if not that?

*ventures off to page 1*

ebwop

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:48 pm Because he said I came out of nowhere with my claim. Same as Kara and DH. If Speed is scum, timmer has the reason of trying to discredit me for that

Does timmer's vigilante claim move your read in either direction?

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:48 pm

Because he said I came out of nowhere with my claim. Same as Kara and DH. If Speed is scum, timmer has the reason of trying to discredit me for that
[/quote]

Does timmer's vigilante claim move your read in either direction?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:51 pm Unless you're referring to other mafia not having these abilities, which... Might be a good point? But I'm not sure where to go with it.

Do you think it's probable that two mafia members can summon a patronus?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:43 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:33 pm speedchuck, how do you feel INH's flip reflects on Quin?

You are joking, right?

No. I'm referring to INH's role abilities, not his alignment.

poutanko wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:32 pm @poutanko who could you gimme eight players you believe to be the least likely members of the mafia team?

Me
No particular order:
Collin
Luna from interaction with INH
Slowner same reason as Luna. LC saved her could be just scum tactic to make people buy his towniness had people lynch her
Nutella
Glorf/Juliet 2 because truth meta
You (don't do same thing as Negan ok)
Quin
DH from LC lynch (unless it's like what MacD said)

So by POE you'd be left with a suspect pool comprised of:

speedzeye
Mac
Jack
karavalenge
sprityo
timmer

timmer is a standout name here. What do you presently make of him?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:36 pm The flip is a solid look for timmer, as it strikes me as unlikely that the mafia team was granted more than one skrewt.

I'm trying to piece together scenarios in my head in which timmer never actually was an odd-night vigilante, and instead inferred the existence of the role because his teammate INH had an even-night version. There is no kill officially attributed to timmer after all (he said he targeted speedzeye on N1).

Is there anything we can extract from the night action gobbledygook that would eliminate this possibility?

[mention]speedchuck[/mention], how do you feel INH's flip reflects on Quin?

[mention]poutanko[/mention] who could you gimme eight players you believe to be the least likely members of the mafia team?

I don’t know what that gnome is but I like it.

The flip is a solid look for timmer, as it strikes me as unlikely that the mafia team was granted more than one skrewt.

Glad the lynch worked. Cool beans.

Perhaps of interest:

INH, Sloonei, and poutanko all remained on speedchuck through the deadline. The lynch was clearly not being swayed, but there's another angle of import -- the House Cup. INH is a mafioso and assuming a successful lynch, votes on him will amount to House Cup points.

speedchuck is not a successful lynch today, regardless of his alignment. Those three people earned no cup points for their votes. INH's vote is obvious WIFOM, though one could wonder if it says anything about Colin and DH (and myself from your perspectives), since a self-vote is legal and would have earned more points for Gryffindor. Eschewing that inhibits the chances of winning for the three people I mentioned, which could be a decent indicator. It's a stretch, but it's something.

It's also of note that neither Sloonei nor poutanko were concerned with House Cup points apparently. Whether there's something to read into that I cannot say, and indeed I thought I would be able to do more with this post when I started typing it. But bleh, I already typed it, it's typed, so here, have a post.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:45 pm I think you could make this argument no matter who the kills were. It is the fact that they all flipped scum.

Jay killed oh it's Jay it makes sense. Mac, Glor, etc. You could rationalise all the deaths but since when do 3 consecutive vigilante kills all land let alone land on Mafia.

Why do I feel like you are intentionally suppressing the notion?

I don't think the notion is well-founded. I think exploring alternative theories as you have has value to a point, but there are limits to that. Eventually it can incite paranoia and lead to civilians doing dumb shit that they have no business doing.

I'm not rationalizing any kills in a vacuum. Comparing a hypothetical kill of me or you or Glorf to night kills of mafia members is illogical. The implied sources are different.

What are you suggesting is the issue here? What are you worried about? I seriously don't know.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:42 pm Mac said his civvy agenda. DH needs to not get lynched as a townie, too. Civvy Jay likes making things happen and might have even bought Mac’s case.

How am I not easy to lynch? I just make whatever arguments you ask me to on command.

What is the point of this?

You're in most POEs and any additional shit you say about the continuing shit in the thread bears some potential to nudge you deeper into or out of those lists knawmsaying knawmean

I don't care anymore though so as you were

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:28 pm 3 dead mafia all via nk. A failed Mafia lynch. A mafia rezz. You're all unperturbed?

They all made sense and were predictable. Not perturbed.

N1, the most obvious vig target is the guy who hasn't made a post. Token.

N2, a consensus suspect who had just spilled his salad all over the floor makes sense as a target.

N3, a guy who had just survived a lynch and looked obvious makes sense as a target.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:20 pm The mafia agenda is obvious.

Scum DH doesn’t want to be suspected and defends himself accordingly.

Scum Mac wants to breakup the towncore.

Scum Jay sees a t/t squabble and pushes it but then takes himself out of it.

If there are multiple scum players here (unlikely, given the estimated number of scum left and other suspects), distancing would be a factor.

I’m not sure why you’re asking this question. You seem to imply “there is no possible scum motivation for the behavior of these 3 players.” Is that what you believe?

Just about anything can be assigned a mafia motive, so no I don't suggest that there isn't one or couldn't be one. It is your task to express what that is though, so I prompted you as such. And you answered the prompt. Hooray!

Now tell me the civilian agenda. Go!

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:00 pm I'd have to reread it to be sure, but... DH hasn't undergone a whole lot of scrutiny, since the LC lynch. Perhaps this was an effort, either on Mac's part or on you egging him on to do it, to lay out a case against DH's Long Con cred and see if anyone else bites at it. Perhaps not to get him lynched today, but to get that seed of doubt in there and remove the townlock status that DH has in the general estimation of the thread?

What would the town agenda be in that weirdness? I have no idea.

BTW me saying I don't understand it is an opportunity for involved parties to clarify, not for you to treat it as a suspicion. Not every question needs to be answered with "do you think I'm scum?" Sometimes I just wanna know the dang answer, and then make conclusions from there.

Oh I know that not every query reflects suspicion. The highlighted portion there is what is of interest to me. I think the answer to that question is quite obvious, to such a degree that I am surprised to see such uncertainty and whatever might Jay and/or Mac have been doing?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:31 pm I have no idea what you're trying to tell me.

Anyway. You express uncertainty about Mac and I going after DH, and then my removing myself from that dialogue.

What do you suspect is the mafia agenda which may exist underneath that behavior on the part of any of the three? If you don't mean to suggest a mafia agenda, what is the source of your uncertainty?

[mention]speedchuck[/mention], you too.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:30 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:26 pm If what I did with DH wasn’t as obvious as I thought it was, then maybe it’s a strategy I’ll adopt more often.

It’s a bit of a relic from 2012 era me.

Is it the thing like when your friend says "Let's roll this giant round bale of hay down the hill into this fire because it's molded and needs to burn" and you go "Yeah, sure buddy, got your back" and then you watch this whole thing go just to get a better idea of your friend's IQ and the laws of physics but then the burning hay bale starts rolling towards a barn and you have to stop it somehow?

Yes blame Mac if the barn burns down.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:26 pm If what I did with DH wasn’t as obvious as I thought it was, then maybe it’s a strategy I’ll adopt more often.

It’s a bit of a relic from 2012 era me.

You're in grad school right? So you're probably about...22. So 16 year old Jay's signature move...



I have no idea what you're trying to tell me.

When I was 16 if I had a QT sitting next to me I’d probably puke from horror

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:27 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:25 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:23 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:19 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:15 pm (This all kinda ignores Jay and Mac going after DH and then Jay being like "meh nm.")

I'd love to hear more about this. I was gone at the time and I'm still not sure how to feel about it.

I'm a bit torn as well. It would be convenient if Mac was wrong/shading.

What would be convenient?

If DH is town.

I don’t know what you’re saying. Convenient for whom about what?

If what I did with DH wasn’t as obvious as I thought it was, then maybe it’s a strategy I’ll adopt more often.

It’s a bit of a relic from 2012 era me.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:23 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:19 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:15 pm (This all kinda ignores Jay and Mac going after DH and then Jay being like "meh nm.")

I'd love to hear more about this. I was gone at the time and I'm still not sure how to feel about it.

I'm a bit torn as well. It would be convenient if Mac was wrong/shading.

What would be convenient?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:20 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:18 pm Avoidance of protections.

Is just kicking the can down the road unless you're able to remove protections.

Baddies are known to kick cans.

Avoidance of protections.

Hey gang it’s me, JaggedJimmyJay.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:52 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:51 am I would like one raviolus.

That's raviolo to you

I would like one raviolus.

It seems nutella is also baked.

timmer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:28 am My cat's breath smells like ass.

That's rough, my man. That's rough.

My guesses:

Mechanically, it's possible that they're both civilians. There are countless moving parts. Do I think that's the situation? No. Their behavior speaks to me more than their action discrepancies, and I don't think it looks like friendly fire.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:07 am If I'm right and Quin is bad, that means the other visitor was prolly a town vig with the elder wand.

Who thinks it's a good idea for me to share that info publicly? Answer me, you who have been pooh-poohing my ??? person.

I'm going to bed.

No need right now. All that can provide is some corroboration with your claims, but not enough that it'll sort out the entire web of nonsense comprising your combat with Quin. If ??? is real person and is a vigilante and/or has a hallow, their name is best kept secret.

karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:03 am Again, don't take what I say too seriously. I know you just want more info and insight, but I'm definitely not reading everything and making really biased judgments based on how people act.

The most important thing that these conversations with you help me to do is solidify my read on you, which is very important. You're one of the players remaining on whom the game may end up hinging, because many others aren't sure exactly how to judge your alignment. The closer we come to figuring you out with confidence, the closer we are to solving the whole game.

I think you sound genuine at least, and that means something.

karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:56 amRight now I'm willing to trust nutella, Colin, and MacDougall.

Thanks. Could you briefly describe what it is about those players that gives you confidence?

karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:48 am Honestly I think Quin is scum for focusing on my part too hard and I think Speed is scum for focusing on his investigation too hard and I think Jay and Pou are scum for believing Pou's one Maf call too hard.

You're all too trusting, it sickens me

Do you think anyone looks particularly good?

karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:39 am I want to die because my continued presence is not a help to the serious players.

Untrue! We're all just pretending we know what we're doing. Everyone has unique insight to offer, especially newcomers like yourself who aren't going to blinded by preconceptions about how people are "supposed" to behave.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:59 pm not playing 20 questions about why i couldn't put everyone inside a 6 person PoE pool, thank you very much.

It's a necessary chore if I am going to have any chance of believing that your pool isn't fake. I don't know what it is about Owner and/or Sloonei which makes you feel better about him than those you included in your pools.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:56 pm You could also be good.

Why do you trust him?

Quin, would you be able to throw together a six-player POE list?

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:31 pm no thanks

This really would help me a great deal. I don't mean to be a bossy ass. Please humor me.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:28 pm bad
good
good
good

Please build me a full mafia team compatible with these reads.

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine

going out on a limb here

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:25 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:25 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:24 pm i was supposed to be confirmed town today

how

by being myself

gun to your head immediately:

speedchuck
poutanko
karavalenge
Sloonei

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:24 pm i was supposed to be confirmed town today

how

23% of me thinks this is all horseshit between teammates meant to sow extreme confusion in a game otherwise cruising toward a civilian victory.