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by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

NotAnAxehole wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:39 pm I want you to answer honestly, but if you answer yes, I'm never taking time to explain a read ever again.
I doubt that you do much of anything "for show". If you're mafia the motivation isn't to "look a certain way", but rather to promote an elimination beneficial to you (and probably with something similar to rationale you really apply as town). One thing that is unclear to me:
NotAnAxehole wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.
I am unfamiliar with your process, and am not sure how the first line becomes the second -- the math in the middle I cannot readily access or replicate without a better understanding of the statistical analysis you're employing.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:35 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

NotAnAxehole wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:33 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:07 pm
Hally wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:03 pm Gun to my head, Mac is town. I probably don't have quite your confidence. I think this Day 3 is kind of broadcasting a gamestate though with people clearly solving and people clearly solved. If someone wants to tear me out of that mindset, I am open to being torn. It's happening in my head though.
not sure what you mean?
Both NAA and c4 seem to be struggling to find their place in this day phase, and to me it looks like teammates who aren't sure of the way forward anymore. You and Mac are still working out the game with the progressions and strands that must exist in town brains at MYLO. Nanook isn't doing so quite as visibly, but I think I see inklings of it anyway.
I think you're just projecting. You're struggling to find a justification for your bad read.
Does that mean I am wrong or I am mafia?
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:21 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Yes we got lucky with the power role situation.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:07 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:03 pm Gun to my head, Mac is town. I probably don't have quite your confidence. I think this Day 3 is kind of broadcasting a gamestate though with people clearly solving and people clearly solved. If someone wants to tear me out of that mindset, I am open to being torn. It's happening in my head though.
not sure what you mean?
Both NAA and c4 seem to be struggling to find their place in this day phase, and to me it looks like teammates who aren't sure of the way forward anymore. You and Mac are still working out the game with the progressions and strands that must exist in town brains at MYLO. Nanook isn't doing so quite as visibly, but I think I see inklings of it anyway.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:03 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Gun to my head, Mac is town. I probably don't have quite your confidence. I think this Day 3 is kind of broadcasting a gamestate though with people clearly solving and people clearly solved. If someone wants to tear me out of that mindset, I am open to being torn. It's happening in my head though.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:51 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:47 pm axe and c4’s posts are both poop today :shrug:
Feels like the game is solved

:smile:
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:50 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:21 pm i’m not talking about that, i’m talking about some of the reasons you were using to push him

specifically pushing him for trolling about wilgy’s hammer thing and for asking NAA to explain the wolf read on him struck me as reachy (and i think i expressed that at the time)

it kinda felt like you were simply piling on reasons and just trying to bury him rather than considering his alignment

again, it was to the point where i even thought you may have red checked him because your treatment of him just seemed weird otherwise

if you’re a wolf i think that section of the thread is where i’m supposed to catch you, but i don’t know that i really feel it’s enough to consider you and i don’t have any other concrete reasons to think you’re a wolf so meh
I get it. There was a moment there after I had done all of my interactive work and came upon the MR/Dizzy answer that things felt rather puzzle pieces sliding into place, and I felt good about it. I had one of those "I feel like the game is solved" moments where I am just asking to look like a doofus later, but them's the breaks. I think that if you follow the thread of my posts in the hours following that moment you'll see my confidence steadily degrade and my confusion steadily increase (before EOD2 blew it all up and quadrupled my confusion). So I understand your perspective, and I do think there's evidence that can help you sort that tinfoil in my progression.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 4:15 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Yep. If c4 is mafia I am a proper dunce. :shrug2:

In my defense I almost got there when the madness was at its peak at EOD2. Almost counts.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:12 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (Day 1)

MacDougall wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:35 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:37 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:34 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:27 pm The following are reads. The categories are reads. The categories aren't ordered so it's not like a rainbow list, k

Having a good time on the highway into town
c4
Dizzy
MR
Town reads

Having a good time, but maybe driving the wrong way
Nanook
Mac
Dunno but gun to my head, town

Driving cautiously, both blinkers activated
Alison
Hally
Dunno kinda iffy

Stopped in the right lane at a red light preventing people from turning right behind him
NAA
"suspicious" I guess

Haven't hit the road yet
DrWilgy
Marmot
Eagerly awaiting
I decided to rainbow them so people know what the hell I am talking about
#shouldhavestayedinretirement

I'm good with sheeping Alison and see where it goes.
this post is townie because if axe is mafia and alison is town he's placing himself in a bad situation and if they are mafia together he's openly siding with alison which is just weird
NotAnAxehole wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pm
MacDougall wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:38 pm @NotAnAxehole why did u have c4 as outed mafia?
A minor technicality.

I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
this post is townie because he has made no effort to product a townie post on request
NotAnAxehole wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:45 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pm
MacDougall wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:38 pm @NotAnAxehole why did u have c4 as outed mafia?
A minor technicality.

I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
why do your reads strike me as fake?
A lack of understanding + I haven't actually seriously evaluated.

Combination.
see above explanation

tl;dr he feels like he's just being straightforward in a game in which he's not really motivated to push very hard the end
Vaguely tracks with the progression Mac describes above.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:56 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:54 am I am going to do an exercise that I've never done before called. "Here are posts and reasons that I am never mafia with anyone in the game." I am going to do so by quoting my own posts and articulating my mindset during each of them to a degree that you will have no doubt is legitimately what I was thinking. Here goes. Wish me luck.
Good luck.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:52 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:51 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:50 am Feels like one of those games that is just a slog to play, largely because town is wrong so often (very much myself included), but then at the end the answer is kind of obvious and we just win anyway. A la Tree Mafia.
I like how Tree Mafia still gets brought up all these years later but only ever by you or me.
I definitely remember the four mischops I have ever suffered. :smile:
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:50 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Feels like one of those games that is just a slog to play, largely because town is wrong so often (very much myself included), but then at the end the answer is kind of obvious and we just win anyway. A la Tree Mafia.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:45 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:44 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:42 am Nanook and c4 are definitely not mafia teammates. So if Nanook is in that set of three, both of the open teams include NAA.
Why's that?
That's where I think fuck off has meaning. It doesn't tell me Nanook's alignment, but it evidences frustration in a key moment -- immediately after I had mused over the possibility of a Nanook/c4 team. If that was a mafia Nanook reaction, it'd reflect a very loud case of caught for the wrong reasons.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:42 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Nanook and c4 are definitely not mafia teammates. So if Nanook is in that set of three, both of the open teams include NAA.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:39 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I don't town read Nanook for fuck off.

I might town read Nanook for being annoyed by mechanical incompetence in a scenario where he wanted to act as cover for Wilgy and felt the EOD dialogue was blowing his cover.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:35 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Struggling to see a probable scenario with a town NAA.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:28 am
MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:28 am I think that if you read over some of that game you'll realise that your townread on me here is pretty solid. You had me wolf for large swathes of that game for good reasons. Those reasons are all entirely absent in my play in this game. I know I have range, but I don't believe I have range that I can deploy that tactically to fool specifically you. And that game was not that long ago.
@JaggedJimmyJay
I was just snooping around in the posts. I'm not sure I'd call your play here "similar" to that endgame, but the dimensions along which the games differ don't tell me a lot about alignment (if I stretch for your sake, I could say you were much more resigned in that one). I think the context is too different though, since that was a gigantic game with a mafia team that melted around you from Day 1 onward.

Anyway, I try to temper my impressions or expectations of your "meta". As I have suggested in this game: I don't think you or I do a great job historically of interpreting each other's meta.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:22 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:19 am
MacDougall wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:02 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:04 pm Concern about Mac: if he's town I'd expect him to want my head on a pike right now
This is a misplaced concern. I already had that dance at the start of day 2 and you rectified my concerns to a point where it would be unreasonable for me to act that way again and it's unreasonable for you to assume I'd be that irrational.

Your worldview aligns most to mine as of today. I think you are out of your known wolf range too honestly. I doubt you have it in you these days as mafia to replicate your wolf game to this degree.

If anything you should ponder your statement as I think it would make more sense for me as mafia to "want your head on a pike". By not pushing you I am doing nothing but wrapping the POE around myself more tightly.
@JaggedJimmyJay remember the last time I was mafia and ran out of partners when you were town. What things did I attempt to do on that final day prior to going belly up?
I can't remember clearly, but I suppose it'd be simple to glance at the PerC crossover for a moment.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:21 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I wouldn't say I was "confident" about the assertion Master Radishes is mafia. I was somewhat confident about the assertion that Dizzy and MR make a ton of sense as a mafia team. I wasn't surprised though when MR claimed watcher or when Dizzy flipped green. Just one of those things. Sometimes reads are poop.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:12 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

If @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME can eliminate the NAA/Mac world, that'd be something I'd immensely appreciate. Even just 2-3 words to point the way or summarize the rationale.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:51 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:31 am for completeness sake, my other concern with jay aside from his NAA defense is how hard he was pushing on MR

i had MR as PoE but i didn’t think he was really wolfy, and i felt jay was kind of stretching for reasons to call MR a wolf and was maybe too confident in it

at one point i even thought jay was softing a red check on MR (hence my 🍿 post and me asking jay how confident he was in it) because he was pretty much slamming MR and seemed like he was pre-flipping him wolf

in hindsight it isn’t really difficult to view that whole section of the thread as “power wolf jay ruthlessly dunks on LHF villager radishes”

but i’m not sure how much i believe it and outside of that i think jay’s play has generally been villagery
Sure. I didn't feel like I was slamming him really, but I think I understand the perception. He was trying to defend himself, and I kept saying that it wasn't doing much for me and that I needed him to find mafia. It's not MR's fault, but there are certain forms of defense that I simply am not receptive to as a player (because I consider them to be essentially irrelevant to alignment and within most people's ranges). Indeed, sometimes the mere act of defense raises my suspicion depending upon the context or delivery, particularly when it becomes a significant proportion of someone's posts. That's just Mafia philosophy though, and clearly MR was town. Them's the breaks.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:23 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)

c4e5g3d5 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm Discouraging wagons
why were the wagons discouraging
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:23 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Mac being wagoned looks kinda similar to Dizzy being wagoned, in terms of his reception of that and how he handled the thread in real-time.

c4 being wagoned elicited no meaningful response other than for c4 to acknowledge that it had occurred. NAA did not acknowledge his wagon.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:20 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)

Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:40 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:22 pm I think that's everyone except Mac not countering.
yeah no cc here
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:40 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:39 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:39 pm [VOTE: NAA] aubergine

we’re not killing c4
I'll vote this if you don't want to vote Mac
why suddenly do you want to vote me again? was I away from the thread an adequate amount of time for you to feel comfortable pushing me?
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:42 pm everyone's a villager hally so let's start there and then find which villager is the mafia
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:47 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:45 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:44 pm there’s things wolves do not ever fake and c4 thinking dizzy was softing a red check on me at SoD and soft communicating about it itt is one of those things
Yeah, so there's probably scum between Mac and Jay. Get into it.
there really probably just is not unless Jay is playing his greatest wolf game
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:48 pm dizzy kinda spewing him and wilgy as the team imo
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:49 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:47 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:46 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:44 pm there’s things wolves do not ever fake and c4 thinking dizzy was softing a red check on me at SoD and soft communicating about it itt is one of those things
Yeah, I don't agree with this.
with respect, i don’t care what you agree with
no need to be like that... wilgy is just wilgen
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:50 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:49 pm
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:48 pm dizzy kinda spewing him and wilgy as the team imo
[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

no no no. This is disgusting.
ahhh found it lol
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm I don't care tbh I've played enough mafia for one lifetime I'm proper over it hey.
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pmdizzy pushing everywhere he can showing he's actually content with whatever even foiling you and me
Be quiet.
don't be rude...
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:55 pm y'all being way too haughty and rude for my tastes... dial it down ten notches
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:55 pm Don't vote either Wilgy or Nook

Vote me rather, I want out of this game anyway

Good luck figuring out the power Wolfes OR NAA lol
there's just no need for you to be mean
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:56 pm [VOTE: mac] aubergine
whatever trevor
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:58 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm i really don’t know what’s going on
both mafia fake claimed BP in a game they know there isn't one
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:58 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:58 pm There's scum between Mac/Jay and I'd even say Hally. That is scary. Likely Mac imo.

NAA is also probably just mafia btw.

Wilgy/Nanook will likely become clear.
there really probably just is not mafia between mac/Jay and hally no matter how much you say it

Mac's posts over the final 20 minutes of Day 2. Again just dumping them for ease of reference while I thonk over the game.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:17 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:14 am does he usually tend to read you primarily off results or off of how villagery he thinks you are?
I think he tries to do both, but if the results aren't happening the trust tends to erode or instantly vanish. He's been a bit agreeable too with some of my theories (e.g., MR/Dizzy late in Day 2 and c4/NAA now), so I am concerned about that uniquely Maccian in-your-face pocket. It also feels a little bit parainoid as I type it here, so my feelings are mixed.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:13 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)

c4e5g3d5 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:37 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:36 pm Is this where we flash wagon c4
Apparently
c4e5g3d5 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:40 pm Am I actually gonna vote Axe
NotAnAxehole wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm Wilgy is like, so obviously town... Unless I'm wrong.
NotAnAxehole wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:56 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:55 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm can't stand the fps claims
And I can't stand mechanical incompetence, yet here we fucking are
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pmdizzy pushing everywhere he can showing he's actually content with whatever even foiling you and me
Be quiet.
don't be rude...
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm
MacDougall wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pmdizzy pushing everywhere he can showing he's actually content with whatever even foiling you and me
Be quiet.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm Discouraging wagons
c4e5g3d5 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:59 pm [VOTE: NotAnAxehole] aubergine
This is [most of] the commentary from c4 and NAA at EOD2 starting immediately after a c4 wagon appeared (votes from Nanook, Wilgy, and I). I'm just going to look at it and let feelings develop.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:56 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

@c4e5g3d5 why did your suspicion of me increase when I asked you for your suspects
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:29 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I believe wagons or near-wagons existed around the EOD2 stretch on both c4 and NAA, so it'd be interesting to see how each handled that. Mac had a wagon too obviously so that needs to be checked out beyond just NAA's vote placement.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:22 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:15 pm Just bringing these back for my own ease of reference:

Mac and NAA
c4 and NAA
c4 and Mac
Fixing the first link: Mac and NAA
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:20 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:16 pm jay, as i chug through this let me know if my thoughts don’t match your analysis


also apologies, usually i would multiquote the posts that lead me to these conclusions but multiquoting is harder on ts on my phone
I think your conclusion on NAA/Mac is valid. I had previously "light greened" them, but my reasoning was pretty specific and not hard to discard. NAA's voting behavior at EOD2 makes that team plausible on its own power.

I might be more conservative about NAA/Nanook than you were. I think those two aim for what they believe to be optimal, and I would give 451ers in general a higher probability of low interactivity as mafia teammates than players from most other sites. I don't think their interaction is necessarily a "problem" though -- just one I'd call null.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:15 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Just bringing these back for my own ease of reference:

Mac and NAA
c4 and NAA
c4 and Mac
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:06 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

c4e5g3d5 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:03 pm @JaggedJimmyJay

Have you said your issues with me with words

Can we start there now that we're in LyLo
You are a suspect by POE. I don't find it that hard to believe you can be mafia given your relatively emotionless play. You've provided keen insights, but the vast majority to my memory have been of the town reads variety and require only that you be paying attention. I've seen slots like I perceive yours to be flip mafia with reasonable enough regularity.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:39 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:38 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:30 pm I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.
agreed 👍
I'd very much appreciate your take on the c4/Mac relationship. If that team can be eliminated, then today's choice becomes a bit simpler for me. But right now I can't do that.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:34 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Flat, basic reasons to accept the three teams I believe to be most likely:

c4/NAA -- Nanook, if town, can be trusted for his c4 read being a genuine insight. That means he can absolutely be right. c4's best teammate fit is pretty easily NAA, who is not hard to view as mafia in general.

Mac/NAA -- Marmot left a legacy that implicates this team. Link. Marmot rules and we might just be dumb.

c4/Mac -- When I reviewed their interactions, I found at least the potential for an argument that distancing might be in play. It wasn't super convincing to me, but nor would it shock me.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:30 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I think Nanook's EOD2 frustration was real, which would suggest he was really frustrated about the state of game mechanics (which would be town-indicative given the mechanics were town-aligned). I am tempted to call him town and just move on from that, which is what leads me to my three suspects. I don't want to completely shut the door though, so if anyone has a protest for this logic or generally town reading Nanook I will listen to you.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:28 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I have a hard time plugging Hally with anyone alive other than c4, and that one is just kind of whatever "it technically fits if I want it to fit". Pack it for later if appropriate, but Hally isn't the choice today. I realize it was unlikely in the first place, but due diligence is critical at this point.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:25 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

MacDougall wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:46 pm Furthermore I will add that nobody outright attacking me (the way Jay and Hally have done right now) d1 is a strong indicator that it's because I was pushing an incorrect POE and wasn't being a threat. Jay and Hally at multiple points exhibited TMI that I was town.
I might dissociate Hally from Mac entirely as a product of this Day 2 stretch when Mac and I fought and Hally was caught in the scuffle.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:20 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)

Hally wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:13 pm If I ignore all notions of building a total game theory and just give flat reads of players in isolation, it'd look something like this:

c4e5g3d5
Hally


NotAnAxehole
MacDougall


Dyslexicon
DrWilgy


Nanook
Master Radishes
i’m actually not as sold on c4 as i was yesterday. he feels a bit off today just because i’d expect him to have a bit more investment after a villager got lunched.

also talk about NAA? he’s still squarely PoE to me. and i would move dizzy up a tier.
Best post I can find that might dissociate Hally from c4 (I'm not sure Hally would have bothered with this "distancing" instead of just letting c4 ride in the limelight). It's a small bit so call them technically compatible in an emergency. I don't see much else that speaks to me.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:17 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Hally wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:12 pm i should say i have a not insignificant tinfoil on you, jay

question is if i will ever be able to pull the trigger on it
That's fine. It comes with the mimlo territory.

I'm town. There's no single thing I can say to annihilate your tinfoil, but I will give one suggestion/assertion that you can take however you will: you've always had a pretty strong grasp of what I am about in my town body. In our limited games together I don't think you've ever misread me when I have been town (at least not long enough to matter). You found me again this time, and I don't think there'd be much room for doubt if we weren't currently playing in a hot mess.

I have something resembling tinfoil on you too. Chances are it's the same phenomenon. Sort as you must. :srsnod:
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:10 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I don't think it's Hally/NAA.
I don't think it's Hally/Nanook.

These are uncontroversial takes, I am just making note as I review (not going to do the whole formatted post spiel unless it becomes pertinent)
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:04 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Concern about Mac: if he's town I'd expect him to want my head on a pike right now
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:53 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Every post should make everyone question shit. It’s MYLO and the game has been a cluster.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:52 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I think we have two mafia in [c4, NAA, Mac]. Gut feeling:

c4/NAA > Mac/NAA > c4/Mac

Some concerns: Marmot kill most suggests Mac/NAA. Nanook isn’t clear (nor is Hally even).

Maybe today’s business for me should start with Hally interactions just to try to close that world for good.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:41 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

@c4e5g3d5 who are your suspects
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:57 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I don’t clear Nanook. At least not without doing some work
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:56 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

My absolute first GTH guess is c4/NAA.

I have to think about things though and don’t want to conf bias any theories.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:55 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

We’re not getting a sleep option, so perhaps the group should agree on a top town read. Doesn’t have to be immediately.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:52 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

Might be pointless to say but:

I’m town.
I’m town.
I’m town.
I’m town.
I’m town.

I think it’s emotionally obvious, but I understand we’re all gonna get suspicion today so fine.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:51 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (DAY 3- MYLO)

I am out playing tennis and will be around later.

First concern: NAA had Mac in a strong difference check with Nanook, and stayed on the Dizzy wagon after the Nanook/Wilgy BP business.
by JaggedJimmyJay
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:59 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
Replies: 3198
Views: 53486

Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)

if Dizzy is town I take Mac's theory seriously D3

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