I doubt that you do much of anything "for show". If you're mafia the motivation isn't to "look a certain way", but rather to promote an elimination beneficial to you (and probably with something similar to rationale you really apply as town). One thing that is unclear to me:NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:39 pm I want you to answer honestly, but if you answer yes, I'm never taking time to explain a read ever again.
I am unfamiliar with your process, and am not sure how the first line becomes the second -- the math in the middle I cannot readily access or replicate without a better understanding of the statistical analysis you're employing.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.
Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.