The Syndicate

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:21 am I don't even know the issue here. We're not in lylo or mylo or whatever. Lynch me tomorrow if you're not satisfied.

Your defense is that you'll prove yourself tomorrow, in a game which forbids roleclaiming and infodumping. Nah.
I need to see a sincere effort to scum hint in order to change my mind.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:12 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:10 am Wait Nova wants to lynch Marmot. I'm confused now. What is this defense even anyway?

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

Interpret that however you may.

I don't interpret this as a power claim.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:54 pm The Marmot/Mac thing is weird. Mac is being weird.

Does weird = bad in either of these cases?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:53 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:12 pmSloonbeard being unstoppable started her wagon.

Well then good job Sloonbread. What prompted this wagon and what do you think of Kyle in light of this?

Me feeling like LoRab was being less than honest prompted me to grill her, which then inspired me to campaign for her lynch. I felt like Kyle was bad unto he made a comment about speedchuck today, aftet speedchuck had died. I don't think mafia kyle forgets which player he just killed.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:49 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:44 pm I don't think nutella and lorab are probable teammates. Nutella was the first person to join the nutella wagon after me, and LoRab's behavior toward nutella has the appearance of buddying/pocketing.

Rule her out then. LC and Marmot compatible?

I haven't looked into it. Nothing jumps out immediately in my memory one way or the ither.

I don't think nutella and lorab are probable teammates. Nutella was the first person to join the nutella wagon after me, and LoRab's behavior toward nutella has the appearance of buddying/pocketing.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:18 pm To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Do you think marmot/lorab is a compelling pairing?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:55 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:46 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:45 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:37 pm

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:34 pm I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

Yup. I do my own thing.

What's up people? Last thing I saw was LoRab be bad and die.

Yep, that happened. How's it going, Wilgy? Everything jolly? Happen to think anything of anyone's play in this thing?

Not much, my last mindset had me torn between Kyle and Sloonbread.

Now that we know LoRab was bad, there more info to play with, but I haven't even read what started her wagon.

Sloonbeard being unstoppable started her wagon.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:34 pm Of my strong town reads, mac is the easiest to tinfoil.

But he's still a strong town read.

Of my strong town reads, mac is the easiest to tinfoil.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:05 pm I think for some or many of us, Mac vaulted from being a less conclusive read to a solid civilian read after the Spacedaisy lynch when he began to investigate potential connections and narrow down possible relationships. Does anyone read him as a civilian for a reason other than this, and do we feel that this is sufficient reason for him to have enjoyed such a position of comfort?

Outside of that, I've had a general sense that this is a focused and committed town Macdougall. I can follow his thoughts, even when they're incomplete. His probes have been wide-ranging, and I don't feel like there was much reason to believe in a partnership between him and LoRab, though I didn't ISO him for that information.
If I have doubts about him, it's actually because of his Night 1 analysis. It doesn't seem like he's done a lot with that work since he posted it to the thread.

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:32 pm Epi, why are you voting for Wilgy? Why are you not voting for LC?

I think he just wanted to give LC some space so he's not sitting there with all the votes on him all day. I appreciate the mindset. LC hasn't done much with his breath today when he's been here.
If LC is town, who should we look at next?

I think it's interesting that there's been so much fringe attention paid to Marmot and Mac today. LC is the consensus top suspect, Daisy and NVN have received a good deal of scrutiny, and I've been loudly hanging onto my Kyle thing. But nearly all of the focus once you get past those names has been on that M&M pairing. The two of them have been pointing at each other since last night, Long Con came in pushing Mac as his top suspect, and NVN is pushing the two of them as suspects after Long Con. It's too soon to know what to make of it exactly, but it's something I want to make note of now so it can be looked into later on when we have more solid information to work with.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:07 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:35 pmMac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.

Wouldn't this imply a teammate relationship?

I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

I don't think I follow. This is just a list of things Mac has said. I don't know why any of it makes him bad.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:35 pmMac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I put my vote on Long Con because I'll be at work all night and don't see my decision changing at the moment.

I've been struggling to articulate why I think the tied lynch poll indicates a LoRab/Long Con scum pairing, but here it is: if only one of them was scum, I think we would have seen a push to save that one of them. There was no such push and the votes just kind of fell into place, with each of them having a more or less equal shot at being lynched. It was left in the hands of the rabbi without anyone being exposed by making a desperate heavento save a partner... except maybe Long Con for his brief Epi vote.

Granted, some of these votes came down in a quick flurry right around the deadline, and this theory assumes a somewhat complete coordination from the scum team. But if Long Con is bad then that's 2/3 right there. If it was just the two of them online at the time, then I could also see them hoping that we'd look past the survivor of the lynch under the assumption that they were the counterwagon to a baddie lynch.

Do you have any other reads to share, [mention]novaselinenever[/mention]? I'd even be happy if you could just go through the list of remaining players and give a simple "Good" or "Bad" read for each of them. Of course, any more detailed reads you might be able to shade would be superb as well.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

What makes you say this?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:27 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:03 amWell, if you read the lynch sober, you'll see that I came in after work last minute, and wasn't able to catch up, just voting to try to save myself. I didn't have a chance to investigate Lorab or anyone else.

you arrived around 8:40, so you had about a half hour to figure things out. you made about 6 or 7 posts. you asked about the case against yourself and responded to my directly asking you directly about why I shouldn't vote for you (and lorab and a secret player named jaggedjimmyjag). you didn't ask about the case against lorab or jay, or anyone else for that matter.

also:

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:52 pmI had several tabs open, for catching up, writing responses, Mortal Kombat, etc, and when I realized that the time was running out, the poll I voted in had Epi as the best possibility to save myself. After my vote went in, though, there was some shifting due to last-few-minutes vote changing, and Lorab was my only way.

which parts of this thread did you prioritize while catching up last night? even if you weren't able to get caught up completely, you at least started. what was your focus in those 27 minutes?

I also liked this post from Kyle and am waiting patiently for an answer from LC. There seems to be a discrepancy between LC Post #1 ("I didn't have a chance to investigate Lorab or anyone else.") and LC Post #2 ("I had several tabs open, for catching up."). The first, which is a retrospective summary from LC, suggests he was totally at a loss. The second, which came closer to the heat of the moment, implies he had been actively working to catch up. This is not a slam dunk, and this line of scum hunting usually produces more messiness than successful lynches, but this looks to me like a player fumbling over their words and fudging the story of their vote behavior. Epi has also called into question the validity of LC's excuse about "last-minute vote changing". I don't like LC's aura from EOD2 and I don't feel like he's adequately addressed any of the concerns around him today, nor do I feel like he's presented any insightful arguments for an alternative candidate. I'm open to a theory against Mac, but I'm not seeing it yet.

we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

Is there an argument for Long Con to be town?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:40 am Lorab:

lorabs push against epi was too consistent to be distancing, I see where Sloonei is coming from in the comment about buddying Nutella, asks about the LC case, doesn't seem to do anything with it. speed is an unlikely partner as well, same reason as epi. I don't see Sloonei as a partner either. Lorab doesn't seem to discuss long con at all, even near the end of day when the lynch is down to the two of them

Does anyone else feel like this is as strong as I think it is? Kyle made this post well after speedchuck's death have been revealed. I don't see scum kyle overlooking or forgetting his own nightkill victim.

24 hours ago I felt good that one of Daisy or Kyle was bad, but they've both done things thay prompt me tk change my mind. Long Con has not, so he's emerged as my top suspect, but the other two have complicated things for me and I've begun to second guess some of my town reads.
It could just be LC and NVN as the remaining baddies, but I'm not comfortable banking on that. We've also got an indie role that might be worth worrying about.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:03 am Well, if you read the lynch sober, you'll see that I came in after work last minute, and wasn't able to catch up, just voting to try to save myself. I didn't have a chance to investigate Lorab or anyone else.

so why the vote for epi?

Moved my vote to novaselinenever because I don't want to pile on LC or wilgy right now.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:00 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:53 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:40 am Lorab:

lorabs push against epi was too consistent to be distancing, I see where Sloonei is coming from in the comment about buddying Nutella, asks about the LC case, doesn't seem to do anything with it. speed is an unlikely partner as well, same reason as epi. I don't see Sloonei as a partner either. Lorab doesn't seem to discuss long con at all, even near the end of day when the lynch is down to the two of them

stream of consciousness; I was commenting on lorabs pursuit of him. obviously his death makes him even less likely to be mafia

Yeah. This makes me want to move my vote. I highly doubt a mafia member momentarily forgets they just killed a guy.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:57 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:55 am Long Con- do me a favor, will ya? And go find mafia.

I'm trying.

Does anyone else have trouble with the two concurrent games?

No, I'm handling it pretty well over here.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:40 am Lorab:

lorabs push against epi was too consistent to be distancing, I see where Sloonei is coming from in the comment about buddying Nutella, asks about the LC case, doesn't seem to do anything with it. speed is an unlikely partner as well, same reason as epi. I don't see Sloonei as a partner either. Lorab doesn't seem to discuss long con at all, even near the end of day when the lynch is down to the two of them

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:45 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:36 am why is "push Marmot" a viable scum strategy for Macdougall entering Day 3?

Attacking Marmot for lazy play, as if Marmot tends to be an overly-vocal, super-analytical player. Possibly ironic, because THAT looks like lazy play on Macdougall's part, going after Marmot for his extremely usual play.

I'm not sure this answers my question, so I'll rephrase: why does it make sense for macdougall, as scum, to pick Marmot of all people as his lynch target for the day?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:41 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:29 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:26 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:18 am Can anyone make an argument for Kyle to be town?

yes :/

Of the players you've ISO'd so far, who do you think is the most likely partner of LoRab?

at this point, long con

Tellmemore.gif

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:32 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:25 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:19 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:15 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.

Do you read Marmot as town?

GTH yes. I haven't been pinged by him. Lazy play, despite what Macdougall is saying, isn't much of a baddie tell for Marmot.

Can you tell me more about why Macdougall is scum? Is it based entirely on his recent treatment of the marmot?

Actually, it is based on the recent stuff. I'm having some trouble with the two concurrent games running, and getting mixed up between them. This is something that currently looks suspicious.

why is "push Marmot" a viable scum strategy for Macdougall entering Day 3?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:34 am RIP speed.

I like daisy's defense I think. Not liking Marmot, and still think LC and Kyle are also reasonably likely lorab teamies.

what don't you like about marmot?

[mention]MacDougall[/mention], what do you say to LC's accusation that you're "dubiously shoehorning" Marmot into a lynch?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:26 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:18 am Can anyone make an argument for Kyle to be town?

yes :/

Of the players you've ISO'd so far, who do you think is the most likely partner of LoRab?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:19 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:15 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.

Do you read Marmot as town?

GTH yes. I haven't been pinged by him. Lazy play, despite what Macdougall is saying, isn't much of a baddie tell for Marmot.

Can you tell me more about why Macdougall is scum? Is it based entirely on his recent treatment of the marmot?

New rainbow:
Epignosis
Macdougall
JaggedJimmyJay
nutella
Dyslexicon
FZ.
Spacedavey
Drwilgy
Marmot
novaselinenever
Kylemii
Long Con


No completely ready to say I've got a 3-person POE. The lowest tier of town reads have not done enough to be completely ruled out, and I could still tinfoil a case on a few of my darker greens, but I feel almost pretty good that the bottom three holds our remaining baddies. LoRab's post history reveals no clear trail back to any partners, but it does paint Epi in a very favorable light. I also think she may have been trying to buddy nutella a little bit.

Can anyone make an argument for Kyle to be town?

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am A shitty lynch you say?

I did not say those words, no.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.

Do you read Marmot as town?

Town read on Daisy for her entrance to the thread tonight. Lesser town read on Marmot for his dialogue with Mac.

Speedchuck's death is a good look for Dyslexicon. She maintained a tinfoil suspicion on chuck (who played an excellent game, btw) through the night. I don't see any reason for a mafia Dizzy to push that angle at all in her nightwork.

Speedchuck's death is also a bad look for the people who pursued his lynch yesterday, I think. It suggests that he was a primary target for the scum team, and we know at least one of them (LoRab) sought to capitalize on a moment in which a case could be built against him for a lynch. How boldly the baddie team would pursue this strategy on Day 2 is the critical question in this theory.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:55 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:50 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:48 am

DFaraday wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:40 am A message from Avram:
LoRab and LC both seemed to want to push for Epignosis and didn't offer much criticism of each other.

That isn't accurate. I never wanted to push for Epignosis, I voted him for maybe two minutes when I thought it was the best chance to save my life. I had said nothing about Lorab because she hadn't really gotten involved with the game that much, it wasn't some kind of teammate-avoidance strategy.

who should we lynch today?

Why shouldn't it be Macdougall?

why should it be Macdougall? I sense a lot of effort and focus coming from him this game. I don't want to lynch that player right now.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:48 am

DFaraday wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:40 am A message from Avram:
LoRab and LC both seemed to want to push for Epignosis and didn't offer much criticism of each other.

That isn't accurate. I never wanted to push for Epignosis, I voted him for maybe two minutes when I thought it was the best chance to save my life. I had said nothing about Lorab because she hadn't really gotten involved with the game that much, it wasn't some kind of teammate-avoidance strategy.

who should we lynch today?

Voted Kyle. I'm back where I started.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:20 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:50 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:57 am ISO links:
Dave
DrWilgy
Dyslexicon
Epignosis
FZ.
JaggedJimmyJay
Kylemii
Long Con
LoRab
MacDougall
Marmot
novaselinenever
nutella
Sloonei
Spacedaisy
speedchuck

And our host, DFaraday.

bumping this forward for contemporary use

Dfaraday added them to the front page

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:48 pm i only say it because the concept of me voting for spacedaisy to save lorab or long con is being pushed around as if it's a realistic theory and it really isn't

This has nothing to do with why I suspect you, for the record. Well maybe a little, but only in the sense that you chose to essentially abstain from the vote.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:32 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:56 pmI promise all of my questions are designed to go somewhere.

I think I get the difference. I think I'm way less methodical and way more general in viewing the game. I've seen you ask questions that I've understood the value of knowing, but that I myself just assume the answers to, and then when the player answers it's usually some variant of what I assumed. Probably not always. This is not invalidating your method or anything, it's just pointing out it's different to mine, and so it has confused me sometimes.

Yeah, my thing is to make people talk, even if I can guess what they're going to say. That way everything's on record later on.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:25 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:23 pm I didn't question your alignment, dizzy. I asked about why lorab's treatment of speedchuck isn't a good luck for him?

It was a general offer for you in case you are questioning my alignment, it was not a response to your one question. Take from it what you want/need.

I don't think you're bad right now.

I didn't question your alignment, dizzy. I asked about why lorab's treatment of speedchuck isn't a good luck for him?

Could you elaborate on your speedchuck read, dizzy? Why does LoRab's treatment of him not reflect well to you?