The Syndicate

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:34 am Four Epi-fam players and not one of them Wolf? Possible, but I don't believe in it.

Would a mafia LC do this if Epi was his teammate?

@TonyStarkPrime where do you plan to vote today?

Clearing*

I guess I could clean him too, but I’d prefer not to

I’m comfortable cleaning TSP:

I think it’s clear he figured out who Moto was fairly quick and defended them in game. He could be third party, which would suck since he wouldn’t have a vested interest in town winning, but it’s too late to do anything about that

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:04 pm

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:57 pm Okay I’m doing an iso read,

I likely won’t be pulling quote since doing this from mobile.

Staring with living players, maybe I’ll do another NKA after of Wilgy and scotty.

Falcon:

He’s been pretty consistent since D2 regarding his Jay read and it evolved into a more solid mafia read which he then channeled on.

He consistently read lorab as mafia which is a plus in being genuine and D1 he did cast a wide net.

The big negatives here? Post D1 falcon stopped providing as many reads focusing in on Jay, while he did continue to vote off Jay and engaged with Simon/Moto we saw less of it.

So while Falcons evolution does appear genuine he didn’t really engage all players which could be bad

Can you literally not conceive of te thought that you are completely wrong about me?

I could see it, you were more in the neutral camp until this phase I’d say, but even if I’m wrong about you I think falcons read on you makes him look good. Does that make sense?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:55 pm Epi and Long Con have had an unusual relationship in this game.

How so

Okay I’m doing an iso read,

I likely won’t be pulling quote since doing this from mobile.

Staring with living players, maybe I’ll do another NKA after of Wilgy and scotty.

Falcon:

He’s been pretty consistent since D2 regarding his Jay read and it evolved into a more solid mafia read which he then channeled on.

He consistently read lorab as mafia which is a plus in being genuine and D1 he did cast a wide net.

The big negatives here? Post D1 falcon stopped providing as many reads focusing in on Jay, while he did continue to vote off Jay and engaged with Simon/Moto we saw less of it.

So while Falcons evolution does appear genuine he didn’t really engage all players which could be bad

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:37 pm You’re more confident than I am, sig. I may follow your lead today.

Okay, but if we loose it’s your fault for listening to me, not my fault for leading us astray

Also one thing to note, which I wasn’t going to bring up this soon, but the convo is dead so I will, if we flip mafia today we need to ALSO hit mafia tomorrow phase or we loose.


So a bussing strategy isn’t out of the question, that adds an extra layer of toughness.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:30 pm Put another way: this game has been characterized by players contributing to the discussion predominantly when they’re under pressure — when they have something to answer for. Other than that it’s emotional neutrality or absence. That applies strongly to LoRab and Epi. It applied to our previous misses. It applies less but still somewhat to falcon. It doesn’t quite apply to Long Con, and deciding what that means is basically guessing.

This is not a normal Mafia game.

I’d agree here, the question is though is that more civ or mafia behavior

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:25 pm

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:21 pm @JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

It’s just uncertainty. I don’t know. There’s a pretty easy argument available to call every candidate in the [LoRab, Epi, falcon, LC] group mafia and to call them town. It is incredibly difficult for me to differentiate any of them and have any sustained confidence in it.

Even now I don’t think LoRab “looks” like mafia. She still easily could be. Once again I find myself more or less guessing.

Yea, I can tell

My Epi read is a mix of gut and prior stuff. His jokey tone strikes me as more townie and I do think his reads on the kids were genuine.

On the flip side he’s very accomplished as mafia, but I put alot of trust in him soooooo I’m sticking with town there I think.

Falcon/lorab, up to her most recent posts fell into the same category, maybe I’m tunneling a bit now, but I think her last few posts scream baddie more than Falcons post today.

Falcon also seems to be more active than his normal mafia meta, which is typically blendy, or at least it was when we were mafia together in scooby doo last summer. Most of this is meta and gut though since he hasn’t done much townie

LC is a hard read for me, but I think out of the remaining players he’s got the most teammate equity.

@JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

And I’m practicing what I’m preaching here by reevaluating my Jay read so I’m allowed to say that

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:26 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 2:27 pm @LoRab if you had to choose just two suspects to be the mafia team, who would they be?

At this exact moment? Falcon and epi.

But I’m not locked into either of those thoughts.

LC and Sig are my next tier.

And I don’t think you are bad, other than in my most tinfoil-y moments.

And tsp’s Indy claim, I’m willing to assume is legit.

See here’s my issue with Lorab post again she quite literally leaves everyone but the person who doesn’t count towards parity, if we believe that claim, as an option for today.

It just doesn’t seem like a solid civ thing to do at this point we should be trying to narrow down the pool not expand it

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:23 pm

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 2:51 pm I’m also not a huge fan of the LC/lorab exchange

Why?

it seems fake to me

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:17 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:04 pm sig being mafia would certainly explain why this game has been so miserable. I’d need someone to lay out a theory/case.

Mean

And even more mean is TS that doesn’t read apple emojis

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:04 pm sig being mafia would certainly explain why this game has been so miserable. I’d need someone to lay out a theory/case.

Mean

I’m also not a huge fan of the LC/lorab exchange

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 1:15 pm And I am quickly losing motivation to defend myself. Because you are all clearly determined to lynch me. And I know I’m not bad. And I know that I’m unlikely to convince you all of that.

So, I’ll ask you 2 questions:

If I was off the table for this lynch, for whom would you be voting?

And

When you see that I flip civ, if somehow the game doesn’t end, who would you vote for next?

I ask, because that is the real topic to discuss. And I’m still very much undecided on where my vote should go.

Epi, maybe.
Jjj I don’t think is, but that would be masterful badness happening—and he is capable of that. But it isn’t my sense.
Sig, possibly
Falcon, possibly
LC I’ve gone back and forth on LC many times this game. It’s possible.
TSP, unlikely

But, yeah: please answer my questions. Thnx

I hate this post, it’s just one massive word salad saying you could go in any direction.

Meaning it gives us basically nothing if you do flip mafia and allows you and your partner to pivot onto anyone that gets attention

Oh never mind Jay is still on epi maybe he’s mafia with lorab

Yea the more I think about Jay today the more I think he’s towny, there’s still some head scratchers but unless Epi and Jay are mafia, Jay created the wagon on epi for lolz, then had to defuse it, I don’t see him being mafia.

For arguments sake we could say he created the Epi wagon, but epi push back made him switch to someone easier, but that seems a bit of a stretch

I’m skim caught up and wow some whiplash here from epi to not epi.

First thing first I did think about it and I still don’t see a world in which epi is mafia. Could he have tricked me? Sure, but it’s doubtful.

I won’t be voting Jay today unless it’s an agreed consensus it feels like a waste of a vote plus I’m having some doubts here. Mainly that’s based off two things.

1. Jay is actively engaging and I don’t think he’d have continued to do so if he was mafia and Epi was leading.

2. The fact nobody else besides Falcon who’s in the POE seems to think he’s mafia.

I still think there’s a chance but we know there’s another mafia member so I’m not dying on the Jay hill today.

That leaves LC, TSP, Falcon, and Lorab.

My first question would be do we believe TSP claim that he’s Indy? If not he’s likely mafia. This is a gamble and he does seem to be solving and engaged so probably not the direction to go in today.

So we take him out

LC, Falcon, Lorab.

In a world where Jay and Epi aren’t mafia and TSP is third party that leaves these three.

I think the points made against lorab are strong and a quick ISO read showed not much. Also while I did originally read her anti Third party thing as townie, in this set up the only people who would benefit from third party hunting is mafia so in a read back that looked bad. She’s also blending into the major wagons

Falcon/LC are the last two, I think both are playing within their civ meta, but also both are good at doing that as mafia.

I’d love to say LC being alive is a red flag, but with Jay and Epi both alive as well that doesn’t really hold true. He is game solving a bit, but not aggressively so and you could say he pocketed Jay.

Falcon is more active than when he’s mafia and seems to be attempting to solve, but (I recognize the irony of what I’m about to say) his main focus was Jay, this provided a good foil of engagement. I can’t recall right now if this is within his town meta. He also wasn’t on the AS wagon, and I very firmly think at mafia was there.


I do plan to ISO all three today time permitted. But, I think our best bet is to keep it within the three Falcon, LC, and Lorab.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:20 pm If Tony is mafia, I lose.
If sig is mafia, I lose.

Four others with 2-3 mafia in them. Epignosis, Long Con, LoRab, falcon45ca

I'll revisit the association dynamics in this smaller set and see what is most viable. And then sig will vote me out with his pecs glistening, and the game will end.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:54 pm

sig wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:51 pm However, my view on Jay hasn’t changed his willingness to switch from lorab/falcon to Simon is a red flag especially given his other theory which we were keeping quite but no point now.

I quite literally had no clue what do with my vote. Everyone felt like a guess. Ask yourself if you'd have a clue what you're doing if you didn't have me to sus about.

(I suspected motobot was the most likely Kagemusha/Shingen by a decent margin and accordingly never went after him beyond generic paranoia that he might be teamed with his dad -- Simon didn't even vote at EOD and seemed unconcerned that his own destruction would ruin the game).

Sorry Jay this is a tunnel I’m not leaving quite yet

But for the sake of the experiment if it isn’t you or epi we need 3

Falcon, lorab, TSP, and LC

If we say Falcon and lorab aren’t on a team that leaves one mafia one civ and TSP/LC

I’m mainly thinking we have two mafia, but the chance that we could have three means we need three at least in POE.

I think a reread of Falcon and lorab are in order.

I’m also leaning towards the AS voters as a good place to start

I also totally forgot about TSP in the above.

Do we think we have two independents? If not he has to be mafia right?

I could also see him being one to do a gambit with Wilgy

It’s pretty late here,so don’t expect much from me tonight.

I think I need to totally reevaluate this game. Ooooor I’m 100% right and can brag post game.

Tin foil: LC is Mafia
High chance either lorab or Falcon are mafia but I agree both aren’t.
Mafia in either Jay or epi, but I highly doubt epi.

@Epignosis im trusting you, what’s your view right now off game state?

Having said that I’m terrible at reading LC and getting a wee bit paranoid.

Falcon or lorab seems to be the popular decision.

The fact the Falcon wagon evaporated but more of a push was needed to remove lorab makes her look worse on the surface level.

I think Moto kill wasn’t aligned to Jay, as in he did suspect him, but doubt that had anything to do with it.

However, my view on Jay hasn’t changed his willingness to switch from lorab/falcon to Simon is a red flag especially given his other theory which we were keeping quite but no point now.

Is there a chance lc/Jay are the mafia?

Like I know it was thrown out there but the fact both are alive is odd

If epi is mafia we’re cooked and it may or may not be sigs fault

Things aren’t looking great, granted I didn’t pop up last phase in time so oops, BUT I don’t like how that Simon vote went down mafia definitely went along with it

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:52 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:08 pm I’m not sure if I like how closely aligned my ideas are with falcon or not this game

I feel tied up in a double-not when I read this.

Thanks.

I’m not sure if I like how closely aligned my ideas are with falcon or not this game

If we believe TSP claim that would knock one off, I guess the question is do we believe it?

Falcon like I said seems to be more within his civ meta
Lorab hasn’t raised any red flags so far and is a town lean.

So I guess I’m at Simon, LC and Jay for my three?

@Epignosis thoughts on current mafia team/make up?

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:02 pm No end time on this poll, but I believe it ends in just a hair under four hours.

10 pm I believe so yea

I should be able to be popping in and out for the rest of the phase.

Still at work (ew even though 6pm) but I’ll be around ish.

I see my Jay vote didn’t go anywhere, which sucks.
I’m still pretty sure he’s mafia, buuuuuut I’ll table it until we get closer to end game then y’all will listen to me :P


I’ll reread Falcon, I’m torn on him he doesn’t seem to be playing within his mafia meta and I did successfully call it out the last two games we played, but both of those games were more active generally.

Lorab. I only see her as mafia if we subscribe to Jays theory, which I don’t right now.Does anyone have insight on her mafia meta? I can’t remember it.

Simon I could see, but like there’s a risk in voting him off no?

I’m confident mafia is among the AS voters at least one.

I’m pretty sure Jay is Mafia.

That could leave TSP, LC, Falcon, lorab, and Simon

Moto is solid town for me.
Epi is solid town.

So 2-3 mafia in these.

Eeek I guess I’m fine with any of these options? I’ll need to try to catch up fully and maybe do some ISO

@Epignosis @Long Con

Can you both give me your thoughts on my thoughts regarding Jay?

@Simon could you give me a read list? Just what do you think each players alignment is and why

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:58 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:55 pm And? Maybe you killed him so you could use this exact argument, which wait you’re doing right now to try and defend yourself. See how that works? At this point it’s literally 50/50 if you killed him, add in the scotty kill who did heavily suspect you and the night kills make a lot of sense if you’re directing them.

Also it isn’t “generic suspicion” this is what I mean the verbiage you’re using is very mafia angled. You’re attempting to write it off as generic to brush it aside.

That's exactly what I just said. Hell. This kind of logic essentially never pans out. I strongly suggest you put it somewhere far under the Earth and grow a big beautiful tree where you left it as penance. You wanted to avoid wifom, and this argument is the definition of wifom. Find your bias.

When I say "generic", I mean accusations like setting up eliminations or killing people who suspected me. Those are ordinary, every day suspicions in Mafia games. I understand why you have those suspicions. But ignoring the evidence to the contrary is pure confirmation bias.

No see wifom is good but only when I do it

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:53 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:49 pm I’m also really not a fan of Jay going from saying I’m locked town, to trying to set up a future vote off, using the night kill as a reason.

This screams mafia. How so? You might ask. Well simple, Jay is leading the thread right now, he needs to not only set up votes, but also give himself cover when people flip town.

That’s exactly what I see him doing right now.


Now if everyone else disagrees I’ll table it, but I think it’s as clear as day

I'm considering the evidence in front of me, and what I said isn't even inconsistent. I acknowledged that at face value, you could fit the "who would make the wrong kill" theory just for having had sporadic involvement. That is technically true (as I see it).

I also said I don't think it's you and dedicated my attention to falcon and LoRab instead. Wilgy town read you, and you seemed town on your own. Those things are still true. I treated Epi's sons similarly. They both technically fit, and I have my doubts the same way.

Voicing a possibility out loud as I consider all the variables isn't "setting up eliminations". It's posting what's in my head. It's having conversations.

What’s your thought on Lorab’s vote

Okay I need other people to weight in on my Jay thoughts since we’re just gonna keep going around and around I’m pretty sure

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:50 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

And? Maybe you killed him so you could use this exact argument, which wait you’re doing right now to try and defend yourself. See how that works? At this point it’s literally 50/50 if you killed him, add in the scotty kill who did heavily suspect you and the night kills make a lot of sense if you’re directing them.

Also it isn’t “generic suspicion” this is what I mean the verbiage you’re using is very mafia angled. You’re attempting to write it off as generic to brush it aside.

I’m also really not a fan of Jay going from saying I’m locked town, to trying to set up a future vote off, using the night kill as a reason.

This screams mafia. How so? You might ask. Well simple, Jay is leading the thread right now, he needs to not only set up votes, but also give himself cover when people flip town.

That’s exactly what I see him doing right now.


Now if everyone else disagrees I’ll table it, but I think it’s as clear as day

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

I don’t really see the reason behind the Falcon vote, but i guess we could say Wilgy death hints at that?

I’ll probably do an NKA, but I also remember Wilgy going after Jay soooo that’s an area to look.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:34 pm But lets be real if Jay is town and wolves had the opportunity to get that flip and passed it up, either they’re silly or they had info or they just weren’t around

Which like also clears me along with all the other things that clear me

I’m really leaning more and more towards him being mafia.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

“Only kinda here”

Excuse me? I’m being very active this game more so than the vast amount of the player base.

This seems like you’re trying to “mech solve” your way to more non mafia kills

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:21 pm

sig wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:15 pm [VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I’m a bit torn about this vote, I think the points against him are strong and I’m not going to vote for Lorab.

That would leave JJJ or a useless vote.

While I did and honestly still do have some suspicion on Jay, he is being very active in a towny way right now and I do think hes solving very genuinely.

Now having said that he could also be a wolf who wasn’t motivated and then pulled it together. Either way I’m comfortable giving him another phase.

I still need to read him, LC, and Epi over. I’m also still thinking LC or JJJ are mafia.

When was JJJ not motivated?

I’d say for a portion of day 1 and maybe the beginning of day 2 he lacked that like towny energy?

He seemed demotivated, not as active, and very I guess negative for where we were at in the game.

Plus I like tying up the game makes it more interesting

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

I’m a bit torn about this vote, I think the points against him are strong and I’m not going to vote for Lorab.

That would leave JJJ or a useless vote.

While I did and honestly still do have some suspicion on Jay, he is being very active in a towny way right now and I do think hes solving very genuinely.

Now having said that he could also be a wolf who wasn’t motivated and then pulled it together. Either way I’m comfortable giving him another phase.

I still need to read him, LC, and Epi over. I’m also still thinking LC or JJJ are mafia.

I agree on Lorab, I like her content so far, it screams old school TS townie.

I also give her civ points for her take on the third party. Back in the day third parties were always more anti town than positive.