Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[TonyStarkPrime]

someone ask me why I didn't vote PA and I'll give the same answer

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't quite think that Long Con has demonstrated the earnest concern about his status that w!LC tends to betray but I'm not really sold on that being a reason not to vote for him

[JaggedJimmyJay]

How about a baseline question to gauge our view of things:

Are the mafia in this game active, inactive, or a reasonably even mix?

The answer to this question ought to dictate our collective mindset, I think. If we just shrug and let things go as they go, the default future is likely to kill another low-activity player next.

I will answer myself shortly, but I want to give others a chance to think about it before I add bias.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't quite think that Long Con has demonstrated the earnest concern about his status that w!LC tends to betray but I'm not really sold on that being a reason not to vote for him

What's your impression of Epignosis?

[Epignosis]

Nah, them fuckers killed Scotty. Somebody is paying attention.

[Epignosis]

Nah, them fuckers killed Scotty. Somebody is paying attention.

Prolly JJJ since he was on Scotty's doo doo list.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Nah, them fuckers killed Scotty. Somebody is paying attention.

Prolly JJJ since he was on Scotty's doo doo list.

I'm sure Scotty thinks so in the unspoiled chat.

[Epignosis]

JJJ is Haman.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My immediate inclination is to lean toward a more active mafia team (active by the standards of this game). The bar is not set terribly high, and mafia are likely to find and meet that standard if it's this easy to do so. I agree with Epignosis that the Scotty kill suggests some level of mafia attentiveness too.

I would describe these players as being low in activity:

sig
LoRab
Abigail Sophia
Simon
motobot

Just by post count they're a tier below the next up (Long Con). However, I think there's good reason to believe all of them apart from sig and LoRab have been paying attention, so it's not entirely clear-cut.

I don't think it's motobot. I have mixed reviews for Simon. It could be Abigail Sophia. I doubt it's more than one of them.

Neither sig nor LoRab quite fit the "paying attention" bill, so it's unlikely to be both of them and could easily be neither of them.

Most iterations seem to demand one or more active mafia. Long Con is my first guess.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

falcon is also plausible. I forgot he's here.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Unfortunately Scotty didn't indicate why he town read falcon, unless I am overlooking something.

[Epignosis]

One hiccup is that you can have one mafia member paying attention and the other not.

[TonyStarkPrime]

SLiP ALERT SLIP ALERT SLIP ALERT (jk)

[TonyStarkPrime]

How about a baseline question to gauge our view of things:

Are the mafia in this game active, inactive, or a reasonably even mix?

The answer to this question ought to dictate our collective mindset, I think. If we just shrug and let things go as they go, the default future is likely to kill another low-activity player next.

I will answer myself shortly, but I want to give others a chance to think about it before I add bias.

I'm kinda with Epi. Scotty kill strikes me as ~reasonable. At least suggests the wolves read the setup, not always a guarantee. I think the kids might have something of an inclination to smite their own father. Wonder if the father has an inclination against smiting a kid (applies widely -- epi notes, correctly, that there's some general disdain for going after the kids).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yes, to be clear, I believe there's no more than one low-activity mafia member. It could be two with a team of three, but frankly I doubt it. The game doesn't feel that way to me.

0/2, 1/2, 1/3 or something

[TonyStarkPrime]

no solid read on falc

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The most generic team of three that comes to my head would be Long Con + falcon45ca + [low activity player of your choice].

Perhaps there's enough thread here for me to assess if these kinds of teams can be viably constructed (or refuted), but I'm not optimistic.

[Epignosis]

My current top suspect is Abigail Sophia.

[TonyStarkPrime]

not even gonna wait to out game state knowledge that if jay leads a chop on a relatively high activity player and they flip town then jay will almost invariably be up the next day.

The game mechanics strongly incentivizes choosing a suspect and pushing them with some combined force. Claims and counterclaims, while they can happen, are gonna be at least potentially very damaging to town now I'm realizing that there's a possibility that this is a claim-banned-game and I'm gonna go check

[TonyStarkPrime]

i mean how tf can you role claim without character claiming with two of the roles being open

[Epignosis]

Off to bed. Another full day of work for me tomorrow.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My current top suspect is Abigail Sophia.

She's at least my top suspect among the five players I put in the lower activity group. She's both been paying attention to the game and cannot be given any civilian credit.

[TonyStarkPrime]

gonna out more mech stuff I guess, everyone who gets put on the stand should at least strongly consider claiming kagemusha, depending on their relative game position. game theory works out that way. The PRs have to do it, the wolves then have to do it, at which point the town have to do it to provide proper cover. Don't think it's worth not talking this through before it starts happening and we have to start thinking about it.

[TonyStarkPrime]

The most generic team of three that comes to my head would be Long Con + falcon45ca + [low activity player of your choice].

Perhaps there's enough thread here for me to assess if these kinds of teams can be viably constructed (or refuted), but I'm not optimistic.

generic team indeed. could prove accurate enough.

[TonyStarkPrime]

the question is at what point do the wolves decide that it's in their best interest to start targeting the low-posters in order to reveal the gerat hope that they might find themselves, and quickly, with a decisive advantage

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't quite think that Long Con has demonstrated the earnest concern about his status that w!LC tends to betray but I'm not really sold on that being a reason not to vote for him

What's your impression of Epignosis?

who knows

[sig]

Has sig posted?

No. He and LoRab are both currently outside the rules (not intended as a slight, just a statement of fact).

No he hasn’t god damn slanker

[sig]

Oh wait now he has.

[sig]

But for real big oopsies on my part, I didn’t realize this started I’ve got some notes on my laptop did a quick skim yesterday afternoon, expect I’d say low to mid engagement today, but I will be around, I’ll share my catch up post, and try to do some general hunting.


Ooooooor just sheep somehow that works too

[sig]

How about a baseline question to gauge our view of things:

Are the mafia in this game active, inactive, or a reasonably even mix?

The answer to this question ought to dictate our collective mindset, I think. If we just shrug and let things go as they go, the default future is likely to kill another low-activity player next.

I will answer myself shortly, but I want to give others a chance to think about it before I add bias.

This is kinda a weird question isn’t it?

Like how would we even go about judging that? Something about this post is pingy, but like I’m also starting out the game a bit paranoid and behind the ball.

[sig]

The scotty kill is odd, I’ll need to do an NKA of them though.

I don’t recall a single post by PA, however both Epi and Jay reasoning mirror the game that just ended where she was civ and also misvoted fairly early I think. (I died D2 and stopped paying attention, but we won so GoC 2024 here I come )

[sig]

Anyway back to bed for me expect a kinda big mega post later this morning

[JaggedJimmyJay]

How about a baseline question to gauge our view of things:

Are the mafia in this game active, inactive, or a reasonably even mix?

The answer to this question ought to dictate our collective mindset, I think. If we just shrug and let things go as they go, the default future is likely to kill another low-activity player next.

I will answer myself shortly, but I want to give others a chance to think about it before I add bias.

This is kinda a weird question isn’t it?

Like how would we even go about judging that? Something about this post is pingy, but like I’m also starting out the game a bit paranoid and behind the ball.

We certainly can't know the answer, but we may have gut feelings. I'll take whatever I can get at this point, because I have no idea how to solve this game.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sig pinged me twice in six posts ("this is a weird question isn't it?" | "the Scotty kill is odd").

So he's probably town.

[sig]

sig pinged me twice in six posts ("this is a weird question isn't it?" | "the Scotty kill is odd").

So he's probably town.

Why does the Scotty kill post ping you?

[sig]

Not to brag, but I either solved this game in like 10 minutes or I’m about to hard core bus some town for a few phases

[sig]

Initial thoughts from my catch up this was very much a skim so this is more of a word vomit.

I’m liking Epi post he’s got the standard joking going on, but still contributing. I’m interested to see how he goes with not 1, not 2. But all 3 of his kids. Further in the game he continues to solve so slight town read.

Lots of fluff from others TSP and Falcon both seem to be doing their standard town fluff during the initial period. Both seem to be posting and I do like the back and forth between Jay and TSP.

Wilgy gave me a slight gut ping, but I can’t remember why.

JJJ, I’m conflicted on. I don’t quite like his 5 deep POE, it seems to early to even have a POE/towncore. I also don’t quite see why he wouldn’t count the Indy as pro civ? I don’t want to delve too deep into third parties, but from what I saw it seems to be a more civ aligned third party. Reading further into the game he’s very engaged and posting, does push a bit here and there, but isn’t really 100% committed to his reads or have that town fire I’m used to.

This could just be since he took a large break and is back again or perhaps he’s mafia and can’t find anyone to vote off? I’d not vote for him D2 but I’d watch him

I agree with the Motobus read he seems towny.

Scotty is looking good, but j need more from him. And I don’t appreciate the sig vote joke

LC seems to be slanking a bit, which is odd since I recall someone saying he had lots of posts?

Lorab isn’t here so I’ll give them another day.

Simon/PS: no solid read on

[sig]

A few posts stand out to me from scotty
1. His read list: I’m thinking we have one mafia in his scum reads at least hence the kill then 1-2, depending on mafia size, in the town area. Potentially one in the talk more, but I know I’m town, so that’s either lorab or AS. Who I’m pretty sure I called PS a second ago oops

Lorab we should hear more from this phase and AS seemed active just hard to place. I personally plan to focus on the scum lean unless we get some big news.

It should be noted even with LC/Jay both here Scotty did target Jay more. Is anyone still familiar with Jays meta regarding NKing people who suspect him?

Town reads:
Tony
Simon
Falcon
Wilgy

Townlean:
Moto
Epi

Scumlean:
JJJ
Long con

SCUMREAD:
Princess Abbi

TALK MORE:
Lorab
Sig
Abbi sophia

The other big thing I noticed is he was engaging Epi gang a lot. I’ve got a gut feeling that this is important, but I can’t articulate it at this time.


So this is where the odd comment still stands. Besides the read list and some points scotty wasn’t a town leader right now but he was also semi active.

I’d think mafia would go for a low/no poster or shoot for the top end with epi/Jay.

So I think the main focus for me in the next day or so is to do an ISO of Jay, Epi, LC, AS, and Simon.

I do still have epi as a town read and AS/Simon/LC as a Null.

[sig]

Also don’t expect 6:30 posts from sig usually, he had to be at work to sit around and do nothing at from like 5:30

[sig]

For such a small game I feel like I should have better reads

[sig]

Alternative strategy. We can vote off all Epi’s kid so they can join the Aveneger game and we can get that one started sooner.

[sig]

Nah, them fuckers killed Scotty. Somebody is paying attention.

Why do you say rhis

[sig]

This* rip my phone

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sig pinged me twice in six posts ("this is a weird question isn't it?" | "the Scotty kill is odd").

So he's probably town.

Why does the Scotty kill post ping you?

I don’t see why the kill would be regarded as odd.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sig is probably fine.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It’s fair to suggest that I don’t have my usual “town fire” as sig said. Two big reasons:

1) This game hasn’t really been approachable with my tried-and-true methods. So I’ve just kind of been making the best guesses I can. It’s dispiriting.

2) I don’t have playing Mafia energy in general. I joined this game so we could finally get it running. I am tired and cranky. Forgive my lack of enthusiasm, friends.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I will try to get cooking a bit this afternoon. For all my groaning, there may be enough to work with at this point for me to solidify process of elimination. sig’s appearance helps.

[Long Con]

gonna out more mech stuff I guess, everyone who gets put on the stand should at least strongly consider claiming kagemusha, depending on their relative game position. game theory works out that way. The PRs have to do it, the wolves then have to do it, at which point the town have to do it to provide proper cover. Don't think it's worth not talking this through before it starts happening and we have to start thinking about it.

I wouldn't bother; I'm Kagemusha.

[Long Con]

Four Epi-fam players and not one of them Wolf? Possible, but I don't believe in it.

[Long Con]

RIP Scotty, look, I didn't confbias you a Wolf this time! I hope you appreciate my attempt to improve.