The Syndicate

Golden wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:13 pm
sig wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:07 pm @Elohcin @Golden

Given Vivax reasoning for voting for me what are your thoughts? Is this coming across as genuine reasons or not?
I need to read vivax for myself, and given sloonei’s read I think a look at scotty is valuable too.

The sense I have is vivax’s vote is poe and I don’t think it’s inherently ‘not genuine’ to vote for someone because you think the rest are townier.

True but more in the frame of mind that is the case genuine or am I misreading that the main reason is that I’m the last POE?

Since the reasons he gave appears as if he’s trying to build a case vs just saying you’re in the POE?

I’m still committed to the final POE of Sloonie vs Vivax.

@Elohcin @Golden

Given Vivax reasoning for voting for me what are your thoughts? Is this coming across as genuine reasons or not?

Vivax wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:03 pm When you see Sloonei going whack a mole on flipped mafia it makes you wonder why you should have been the exception on the following pages.

Far from NAI page 1.
Or Quin saying justice for dog aka sig.
Feels like there‘s insider jokes about that make more sense as the game goes on.

See this is why I don’t like your vote.

It’s an “inside joke” to the entire established player base. The fact you just locked in a vote with that as a reason frankly makes no sense.

It’s also a very odd reason to be placing a vote when we’re this late into the game.

Or Golden is just deep wolfing

Ooooor Eloh is under the radar scumming at which point GG rip

Meanwhile Sloonie is around but again not doing or saying much. At this point he’s just kind of adding fuel to the fire of lynching me without doing any leg work so won’t get the blame

I’d say there are two main things to look at with Vivax today

What’s his agenda for the push today. My first instinct is to NO U it especially since he’s in my POW. BUT, is it a bad look that he’s still digging and trying to build a case? If he was mafia he could just back the Sloonie lynch today. Then build said case tomorrow

Also Vivax post around the last two kills makes no sense.

Firstly Wilgy wasn’t suspecting me his eyes remained on a set POE of Sloonie/DF followed by Vivax

Scotty was an obvious choice as a rezzed civ and a town leader. He was eyeing DF/Sloonie

You look at the trajectory this mafia team has taken throughout the game they’ve gone after the universal town reads AND the people who seriously suspect them. There’s no reason to think this dynamic would change going into this phase.

That means are focus should remain on Sloonie or Vivax. Only one is mafia so it comes down to who do we think is being more civvie right now and who has been more civic or in the past

Vivax wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:55 pm
sig wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:44 pm Vivax reaosning for voting me is extremely bad and a push that quite frankly came from nowhere
It didn‘t come from nowhere.
Just the first page of the game put me into a new mindset to look at the game, specifically seeing Sloonei in a new light.
Then I re-evaluated what I already found suspicious with the new information from the Michelle flip in mind and reached said conclusions.

Feeling confident about them too. Unless there‘s TMI afloat where it shouldn‘t be.

As for Golden‘s question:
Iirc without checking my ISO I mostly sheeped legacies of my stronger townreads to decide to vote Quin.
In the Quin vs Michelle situation I played devil‘s advocate for Quin when Wilgy hinted at preferring Michelle iirc, but didn‘t follow up on it.

How did the first page of NAI randomness create any reads?

Vivax wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:14 pm These posts from around the phase where we limmed bea suggest sig held some extra info. Additionally, he's listing scenarios that don't aim at reaching any conclusion in the first post. In the second, he cleared DF under the assumption mafia will try to prevent their mates from not voting.
That should have been invalidated to him when we flipped Michelle, who was insanified on D2 iirc. Did Sig use the same rationale when we limmed DF? No. But that's to be expected even for a town.
Why did he clear DF but not Michelle for the same reason ? My guess would be that he avoided trying to clear teammates, but conf-bias alert on this.

Oh wait. Michelle voted Eloh on D1, was insanified on D2. Sig assumed nonvoting town got insanified.
He made that up to cover up that he was leaking info, of course he didn't pay attention to Michelle's actions while writing this not having a reason to look for mafia among his teammates.

Up next: Point 3 of his first post contains a sentence too much. Is it possible mafia forgot an action ? Sure. Where did the idea of them being punished for it come from ? They have 1-shot roles, which to an uninformed civ suggests the timing of the usage is free for them to choose as well as the usage overall.
So I believe that there's a rule that dictates mafia roles that can submit every night have to do so, and that sig was aware of it when he wrote this post.

Sig and Michelle were both insanified. For all we know that could have been Tangrowth's doing, or one or more hidden rules on how to post in this game (Minimum amount of posts? Minimum amount of words etc?)

Maybe there's other points I'm not seeing or thinking of but these feel like viable posts to pinpoint sig from and if you notice anything else, feel free to pile it on and choo-choo.

Spoiler: show
sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 2:53 pm Also it’s interesting to note we haven’t seen any Non player votes yet, if that holds true we can only assume one of 3 things

1. the mafia role was blocked so that’ll be a interesting thing to keep in mind if a new case suddenly springs up

2. Some sort of protection shenanigans occurred and nobody is aware of it

3. Mafia forgot to submit an action. I can only assume if they forgot to submit some form of punishment will be present just like for those who forget to vote

sig wrote: ↑Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:55 am
Vivax wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 11:11 pm
sig wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 10:34 pm 11 players left 3 mafia.

We’re still in a good place thankfully. (Assuming Scotty isn’t mafia which I’d have assumed if he was vigged said vig would’ve been freaking out)

I’m leaning toward Michelle or Quin. Quin based off and Michelle is mainly gut.

Bea’s flip semi clears DF for me since he was also insaned
Don't understand how being insaned clears DF for you

no
Vivax wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 11:19 pm
S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Nov 04, 2022 11:15 pm I thought people who missed votes were the ones who were insanified?
Not sure about that, and you aren't either, which is why this is off to me. Because it's worded as if sig's assuming that it only affects town, which is something town shouldn't know.

Bea’s flip semi clears DF for me since he was also insaned

I’m operating under the assumption missed vote = insanified.

Even prior to Bea flip I was leaning toward anyway who was insanified day 2 is town and potentially day 3. I just think someone on mafia would’ve caught the rule hint and made sure everyone voted while if town didn’t closely read the rules they’d miss it.

This to me makes DF look much better since I’m thinking inactive towb.

Look I won’t continue to relitigate what’s essential random mech discussions.

I stand by everything I said surrounded the mech talk it all made sense and Vivax is just nitpicking at this point.

End of the day his reasoning comes down to the idea I had extra info, even though we had a full day where it was basically agreed Insanfied = no vote WHICH has also been proven in just the most recent phase (Eloh was insanfied after missing a vote)

The second reason/why he brought it up is based on the idea that the Host would drop a hint in the kill post that I was mafia (I’m not) and the hosts wouldn’t do that. So that’s just instantly makes this case almost invalid

Vivax wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:25 pm In simpler terms: He unwittingly summed up reasons that made Michelle obvious mafia to other mafia, but used them in reverse to clear DF instead.

Since Michelle voted but got insanified, sig should've been able to infer she was mafia from his own assumptions.
DF didn't vote and got insanified.

At first glance we had two insanified players on D2. One voted, one didn't. No visible grounds for any assumption that it's nonvoting that insanifies players.

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

This is (if I remember correctly) very flawed logic.

Also keep in mind I didn’t say Michelle was likely mafia for not voting?

Assuming if we go by the everyone who doesn’t vote is insanified I said it was likely Civs were more likely to have missed and be insanified since missed those rules.

That was a reason for why I hung back on DF until it made sense to vote that way. Frankly your hang up with this doesn’t make any sense and that paired with the idea the Host would put the last mafia member isn’t solid reasoning to vote someone especially this late in the game

Vivax wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:39 pm So what rule could Michelle have possibly broken ? Maybe there's something we don't know from the OP, like Dead Red being responsible for choosing the mafia factional kill. Not unlikely the Fingersplints kill was randed or otherwise chosen.

This has already been resolved? She didn’t vote in the same phase of me. Also I don’t think the Splints kill or really any of them have been that odd or out of place. The game started with mafia targeting solid civ reads and rarely people who heavily accused someone. That’s held true throughout the game.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:24 pm None of the mafia members had any meaningful interactions with sig.

This might be true, but given the activity levels of the mafia team it isn’t that odd.

I don’t have e a lot of time but I’ll be answering Bivax post. I’ll be honest given that he and sloonie were the main two on the block today the fact he started to build a case while sloonie is still kind of coasting makes him look a bit worse in my eyes. I do have to mull it over though some.

I’m still torn between how much work I think the final scum would put in plus accounting for real life so I’ll say the activity level is NAI at this point

@Golden yea I switched to me since didn’t have a solid read and forgot to come back

Vivax reaosning for voting me is extremely bad and a push that quite frankly came from nowhere

Also any insight on why Wilgy would get the ax?

It’s odd given he was in some players Poe still

I’ve got a really hard time civ reading sloonie partly it’s since his play style is very different than a normal town sloonie, part gut/Scotty, and part voting records.

My thing is even if he’s semi disengaged at this point in the game there’s enough meat to throw some content out.

On the other hand I’d hate to go full buckle down on lynching all the inactive players just for them all to be town

I’ve got a really hard time civ reading sloonie partly it’s since his play style is very different than a normal town sloonie, part gut/Scotty, and part voting records.

My thing is even if he’s semi disengaged at this point in the game there’s enough meat to throw some content out.

On the other hand I’d hate to go full buckle down on lynching all the inactive players just for them all to be town

I’m almost solid on my thoughts but want to hear what others say first

Damn I hate when I’m near the end and one of the more active players.

@Vivax @Golden

Whatcha both thinking right now

Hopefully he’s mafia since I’m not really feeling having to try and solve this game lol

Well I still can’t vote in the polls so

[VOTE: DF] aubergine

No if we win you gotta come back for GoC this year @Golden it’s mandatory

Elohcin wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:35 pm I think DF is a good vote for today, the only most likely to be mafia imo. But, have we cleared wilgy? I still think the last mafia is a low poster.

I’d put him in my towncore for his votes. Unless he’s heavily wagoning on his teammates he’s a civ.

I’d say if we get to F3 and keep missing it might be a relook But until then I’m trusting him.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:14 pm
sig wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:35 am So I know sloonie is busy and all but the fact he just popped in to say he was busy but gave no reads is something I really dislike
What reads am I supposed to have when I have not read the thread?

I mean you see who flipped and had views prior to going more inactive?

Plus it’s not like the thread has been super active the last few Phases anyway.

I’m just saying you’re playing more like an inactive/disengaged mafia member then a civ atm

DF is definitely the most straightforward answer.

If he isn’t mafia though then things get a bit more tricky

The biggest play against Wilgy is he threw the vote away from Michelle (dead red) onto Quin. But, I think Quin could’ve weathered another day better than Michelle so that doesn’t make any sense.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:27 am If Sloonei is last wolf, they've been playing about as safe as possible. If that's the case, it makes sense as to it yielding quite abit of data.

I could see this style especially if teammates aren’t active.

So I know sloonie is busy and all but the fact he just popped in to say he was busy but gave no reads is something I really dislike

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:52 pm Elo is town, sloonei is town, viv is town. Clearing aside, they are ones i trust.

This elim is THE LEAST nervous I’ve felt in a while in this game, and frankly i’m exhausted lol so i’m all here for it

This does push me away from Sloonie/Vix given Scotty’s role I’ll probably ISO through and see if there are any hints about who may be his partner.

His main three were DF, Wilgy (only/mainly if Michelle was good) and golden (tinfoil)

Also @Elohcin early call out of Michelle further makes her look cleared to me. If she’s deep wolfing than damn I’m forever voting off or killing Eloh on day 1

@Sloonei i see you whatcha thinking? Should we lynch you or df first

My only two issue with a DF vote are

1. He’s been gone since Phase 4 and I know historically he’s not super active but having no activity is a weird look

2. His day 1 lacking if voting now given his level of participation that’s a bit less of a silver bullet reason now than before but it’s still there. I’ll add on this theory isn’t as good with Michelle flip either

Big pluses for it

1. Gmans interaction. Discussed by Scotty

2. Scotty’s general read on him

3. The lack of mafia movement/power this game. Given our current state in the game it doesn’t seem like they’ve really controlled any votes or been super motivated (no offense mafia) I think this could point to a less active team with lower moral.

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:44 pm
sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:42 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:38 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:20 pm Last wolf is in this PoE:
Vivax, Sloonei, DF

Which one is it tho?
If it is DF and he’s sending in kills but not posting, dealing with that at lylo is unappealing.
It could also be

1. Randomized kills
2. Other teammates sending in kills
3. Michelle was asked/allowed to out in nigjt actions

I’d say we can’t look too deeply into the kill in terms of being alive it was clear Scotty was going to be the kill imo
How do the hosts normally deal with this stuff in the current era?

I haven’t played since GoC so a bit Rusty but I want to say they do remove mafia members from the BTSC and would randomize kills. Though it’s just as likely DF jumped on last second

Eloh and Wilgy are solidly town for me.
Golden is heavy town I still don’t get why he ever thought sloonie was masons. I was under the impression sloonie was the vote switcher if he was a civ lol

Sloonie/vivax exist in the potential mafia camp, but like murky more tin foil world.

I don’t know if I think mafia sloonie would’ve taken a step back when he did vs a town sloonie who saw the game going well.

Vivax is uninspiring as a whole BUT a mafia vivax wouldn’t have pushed the vote to tie it into Dead Red vs Quin. + I still liked NAA d1

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:38 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:20 pm Last wolf is in this PoE:
Vivax, Sloonei, DF

Which one is it tho?
If it is DF and he’s sending in kills but not posting, dealing with that at lylo is unappealing.

It could also be

1. Randomized kills
2. Other teammates sending in kills
3. Michelle was asked/allowed to out in nigjt actions

I’d say we can’t look too deeply into the kill in terms of being alive it was clear Scotty was going to be the kill imo

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:20 pm Last wolf is in this PoE:
Vivax, Sloonei, DF

Which one is it tho?

I’d maybe potentially throw golden in there for me but otherwise solid list.

7 players left 1 mafia member assuming DF is civ he counts for our numbers but is useless in terms of votes.

6 to 1

Mislynch and kill: 4 to 1
Mislynch and kill: 2 to 1
Lynch or loose.

So we’ve got 3 lynches to solve the game. Best case scenario no vote manipulation exists in the game at this point.

The way I see it is it might be worth it today to go after the most suspicious player, but we’ve then got to resolve DF next day phase. I don’t want us to go into the final 3 with a civ that won’t vote. Unless the active civ is the moderator which is just way to unrealistic of a scenario

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:12 pm That Michelle just gave up and never answered me about sig makes me feel better about this.

I thought you thought I was mafia

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:01 pm Scenarios to discuss before the flip since night is a minigolf course on a schoolday:

If Michelle is mafia, DF is just the most likely teammate.
Sig isn’t leaving many outs for himself if he is partnered with her. He just (unsuccessfully) tried to clear DF for godsakes.

If Michelle is good, Wilgy is back on the menu for reasons previously discussed.
But then more importantly, so is sig, who just (unsuccessfully) tried to clear DF for godsakes; they’re probably just partners lol

I think if Michelle is civ that makes Vivax look 100x worse for pushing that wagon over Quin

Okay back to thinking df could be mafia then

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:47 pm
sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:44 pm
Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:24 pm
sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:20 pm Actually though I just had a thought.

I’m now back to thinking DF is a civ and stay with me here got his vote stolen last phase.

There’s no way we ended in a Quin lynch unless that was the case correct?

It was 5 v 5

Quin 5 players

Michelle 4 player + 1 non player

Remove one vote from a Quin voter and suddenly it’s 4 to 5 remove one vote from Michelle and it’s the same way.

That means either a protection was in play or DF lost his vote and mafia wouldn’t take a mafia members vote even an inactive one.
Michelle (5)
Voters: Matahari, Quin, Vivax, S~V~S, Scotty

Quin (5)
Voters: Sloonei, Golden, Michelle, sig, DrWilgy

Or one of SVS, Vivax or myself had their vote stolen, and DF has nothing to do with it.
A vote would’ve still been stolen and void
I mean yes. Hence if one of the players voting for Michelle had lost their vote, Quin’s elimination is therefore explained.

Am I missing something?

Lol ooops never mind I don’t know how to math i guess

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:24 pm
sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:20 pm Actually though I just had a thought.

I’m now back to thinking DF is a civ and stay with me here got his vote stolen last phase.

There’s no way we ended in a Quin lynch unless that was the case correct?

It was 5 v 5

Quin 5 players

Michelle 4 player + 1 non player

Remove one vote from a Quin voter and suddenly it’s 4 to 5 remove one vote from Michelle and it’s the same way.

That means either a protection was in play or DF lost his vote and mafia wouldn’t take a mafia members vote even an inactive one.
Michelle (5)
Voters: Matahari, Quin, Vivax, S~V~S, Scotty

Quin (5)
Voters: Sloonei, Golden, Michelle, sig, DrWilgy

Or one of SVS, Vivax or myself had their vote stolen, and DF has nothing to do with it.

A vote would’ve still been stolen and void

sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:20 pm Actually though I just had a thought.

I’m now back to thinking DF is a civ and stay with me here got his vote stolen last phase.

There’s no way we ended in a Quin lynch unless that was the case correct?

It was 5 v 5

Quin 5 players

Michelle 4 player + 1 non player

Remove one vote from a Quin voter and suddenly it’s 4 to 5 remove one vote from Michelle and it’s the same way.

That means either a protection was in play or DF lost his vote and mafia wouldn’t take a mafia members vote even an inactive one.

Unless thered some a double voter but I didn’t see that in the role lists

Actually though I just had a thought.

I’m now back to thinking DF is a civ and stay with me here got his vote stolen last phase.

There’s no way we ended in a Quin lynch unless that was the case correct?

It was 5 v 5

Quin 5 players

Michelle 4 player + 1 non player

Remove one vote from a Quin voter and suddenly it’s 4 to 5 remove one vote from Michelle and it’s the same way.

That means either a protection was in play or DF lost his vote and mafia wouldn’t take a mafia members vote even an inactive one.

In fact I’d put my mafia life on the line and say if Sig isn’t town vote for me

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:15 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:13 pm Before going to sleep I will vote

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

The case is in my posts, but to say it again I see he is pushing and voting now for a new mischop after Bea, and his game behaviour changed after the second wolf flip because the wolves need now their full voice, also he pretend he didn't notice the locked votes today even if Sloonei's post is on the same page, less than 10 posts above.
Of course he will show how he pushed Quin, but i can see that as a well done distancing performance.
Quick- before you go to bed- how do you feel about sig?
Spark notes version

I think he’s probably the best most important player in the game. 100% a civ 100% the hero and 100% right on everything

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:49 pm
sig wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:43 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:17 pm I tend to think the only world where Michelle isn’t bad is one where sig and df are trying to utr this.
What’s utr?
Under the radar

I don’t think I’m really playing an under the radar game. But, I can see that for DF. More inclined to think he just doesn’t have the time though.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:40 pm Based upon my sloonei tinfoil breakdown, I think I’m just psyching myself up too much. I feel like there’s so many logical hoops I have to jump through to start reading Sloonei as wolf. Like, the only sticking point (and one that SVS brought up) is that the GMan elimination vote wagonomics were bizarre if Sloonei is a civ. But that can be explained away with weird mafia motivations that don’t have anything to do with sloonei

I can’t recall the pushing for Quin early on I seem to recall Sloonie voters heir then dipped.

If Michelle isn’t mafia that makes sloonie look worse imo but not as bad as vivax

If she is mafia I’m at a bit of a loss for teammate four. I guess that’s when we deal with DF.

But, overall I’ll say I could se Sloonie being bad but it’s also a tin foil theory

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:17 pm I tend to think the only world where Michelle isn’t bad is one where sig and df are trying to utr this.

What’s utr?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 1:56 pm Lastly, claiming I'm not hunting is just malarkey.

Okay Joe calm down and like idk use the CIA to spy and figure this game out

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