The Syndicate

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:28 pm Also, I almost killed leetic a few nights ago but swapped to Long Con instead
Interesting how that mightve turned out

I self-protected N5, so it wouldn't have mattered.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:24 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:23 pm Wow, super-impressive leetic!!! Congrats to you AND WWA for a very well-played game. And leetic with the unforeseen handicap of no kills!
Poor delta tbh, he was kinda doomed

I thought they had to be an ITP or something for the game to still be going on. It's definitely a rough position to be in

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:24 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:23 pm Also, I attempted to kill WWA N6 lol. LC was my N2 target
Why didn't I die? Kill bounced off me?

I have no clue. If nutella tried to redirect it, that would be the answer.

Also, I attempted to kill WWA N6 lol. LC was my N2 target

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:20 pm Arbiters had an odd-night kill btw

Yeah, I had figured out as much, which is why I knew it had to be you and not Delta. I only said otherwise in thread to pass the responsibility of the Epi kill

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:16 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:15 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm IJFESEWIOARJHEFSAFIJODWBAFDWIUf NO NO NO NONO NO
You still voted the right person. I was just an entirely separate threat; )
Very good play, I couldn't pinpoint you as SK xD I considered that the mafia puppet in East meant there was an extra 3p in West but the extra kills had stopped so I scrapped the idea lmao. Well done!

I could only kill even nights, and in fact the only people I successfully managed to kill were Dyslexicon and Epignosis (though I may or may not have killed nutella by accident). The rest was pure endurance

Still, well played WWA. That was a really clean wolf game in terms of effort, tone, and interactions. In fact, if I didn't have certain mechanical information I may have been convinced to vote Delta.

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm IJFESEWIOARJHEFSAFIJODWBAFDWIUf NO NO NO NONO NO

You still voted the right person. I was just an entirely separate threat; )

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:53 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:50 pm This is definitely nerve-wracking, and I know if I'm wrong I'm gonna be yelled at by everyone in the postgame. Nevertheless, I must make a decision, so [VOTE: WindwardAway] aubergine. Ultimately, it's just Delta's roleblock that I simply cannot get past. Further, Delta's play here is typical of townies that wolves prefer to keep around for endgame. It's nervewracking, but I want to give WWA one last chance to sway me.
I'm not going to convince you much on Delta if I don't think Delta is wolfing, though

If you're that certain, why haven't you voted yet?

This is definitely nerve-wracking, and I know if I'm wrong I'm gonna be yelled at by everyone in the postgame. Nevertheless, I must make a decision, so [VOTE: WindwardAway] aubergine. Ultimately, it's just Delta's roleblock that I simply cannot get past. Further, Delta's play here is typical of townies that wolves prefer to keep around for endgame. It's nervewracking, but I want to give WWA one last chance to sway me.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:40 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:39 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:07 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:49 pm Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.
Which direction would you say you're leaning in at the moment?
Leaning back toward thinking it's you tbh
It's a combination of a couple factors. Quite a bit of it is actually more like, "I don't think Delta would do this as a wolf", though, which admittedly is not reasoning against you so much as it is reasoning for Delta being town.
What specific things do you think Delta wouldn't do as wolf? Do you have a lot of meta on them?
I've only ever seen Delta as town and 3p, a handful of games including mashes which are probably not the strongest on meta.
One thing I don't think Delta would do as a wolf, or more generally that I don't think A Wolf would do, is float around in the thread so late in the game without that urgency to look like they're solving. I said this earlier but it's still on my mind. A wolf before the Wilgy flip would want to solve the other wolf team, and a wolf today would want to un-PoE themselves by looking productive. I feel pretty bad in saying this but I really do not get the impression Delta is attempting to look productive at all They skipped or procrastinating doing a lot of the analysis work they said they'd do earlier and they didn't really seem like they felt the need to make up for it. I mean, they were just ok with it like oh well it didn't get done, time to move on to the next thing. And I rarely see that from wolves.

I mean, that depends on the player doesn't it? I've seen wolves like NANOOK who slanked to endgame

If we're going by the theory that arbiters kill on even nights, then nutella would have been the last kill. I do find it interesting that WWA has framed the nutella kill as being because nutella was willing to look for wolves on my side, while acknowledging nutella's suspicion of them in other posts (to be fair, nutella suspected Wilgy as well at various points). Again, the lack of mechanical information means I can't consider this too heavily

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:39 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:07 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:49 pm Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.
Which direction would you say you're leaning in at the moment?
Leaning back toward thinking it's you tbh
It's a combination of a couple factors. Quite a bit of it is actually more like, "I don't think Delta would do this as a wolf", though, which admittedly is not reasoning against you so much as it is reasoning for Delta being town.

What specific things do you think Delta wouldn't do as wolf? Do you have a lot of meta on them?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:36 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:21 pm I waited a little because I wanted to see how WWA would react to Delta's vote. Not responding in eight minutes is... a decision I guess. Watch them respond as I post this
I'm typing on my phone, I thought it would take less than 8 minutes but apparently not what's the pressure, anyway? I don't think I need to rush to react to it.

Well, it's less than 25 minutes to EoD, so we don't have much time

Come on @WindwardAway. Where the hell are you?

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:22 pm Anyway, the one thing that still has me doubting if it was Delta was that they were roleblocked N7. I mean, surely a wolf would have noticed that, especially since they were the only one on their team? Maybe it was a sign of a lack of motivation, but still.

Like, if I was a wolf and noticed that I was roleblocked because I didn't vote for several phases, I would be much more proactive about voting in the next phase. Delta would have almost certainly been aware of the roleblock as a wolf.

Anyway, the one thing that still has me doubting if it was Delta was that they were roleblocked N7. I mean, surely a wolf would have noticed that, especially since they were the only one on their team? Maybe it was a sign of a lack of motivation, but still.

I waited a little because I wanted to see how WWA would react to Delta's vote. Not responding in eight minutes is... a decision I guess. Watch them respond as I post this

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:49 pm Yesss I made it back for EoD! Gonna look at some stuff but I'm open to realtiming as well.

Which direction would you say you're leaning in at the moment?

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:51 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:43 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:47 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:46 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:22 pm I have to close in an hour. Will try to finish a scan of the Darling wagoners.

Lemon wagoners probably not worth pursuing. And, in just two lines, there's nothing good looking left in there. I recall no serious push(es) from Nanook - just an instavote on sabi, due to lingering post-wolfflip, and then a tag vote right after Dizzy back and forth. Davos doesn't sound like making any trustworthy contribution all game and just plants votes. I trusted Scrappy more in West, I'd come back to whether Davos can be trusted, but not this phase, I suppose.
Chooses to basically ignore the Lemon wagon, interesting. I would not be surprised if there was at least one Arbiter among them
Is there a record of what the wagon was like at that point?

I can go back and get a manually compiled version otherwise
I was referring to this post specifically
OH

Sorry I mustve missed that ;_;

It still kinda stands of 'I wasnt really in thread with them' & was trying to give myself jobs to do to get back into the swing of things

Looking back at it now as well, I believe everyone from the wagon flipped? Went back to check & I think Ricochet covered the wagon in a post themselves

Everyone who hasn't flipped was on the falcon wagon, yes.

Also two hours 'til EoD, so be mindful.

Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:47 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:46 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:22 pm I have to close in an hour. Will try to finish a scan of the Darling wagoners.

Lemon wagoners probably not worth pursuing. And, in just two lines, there's nothing good looking left in there. I recall no serious push(es) from Nanook - just an instavote on sabi, due to lingering post-wolfflip, and then a tag vote right after Dizzy back and forth. Davos doesn't sound like making any trustworthy contribution all game and just plants votes. I trusted Scrappy more in West, I'd come back to whether Davos can be trusted, but not this phase, I suppose.
Chooses to basically ignore the Lemon wagon, interesting. I would not be surprised if there was at least one Arbiter among them
Is there a record of what the wagon was like at that point?

I can go back and get a manually compiled version otherwise

I was referring to this post specifically

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:42 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:24 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:18 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:15 pm You said last night as you unvoted that you thought you could get better responses out of me when I'm in danger

It's not. quite a situation of me being in danger right now, but if you want responses fire away while I compile a few things
Why did you vote falcon over sig D3, and why did you barely interact with Lemonfairy?
Sig wasnt a viable vote, would've been stuck on a vanity vote, and as I had said that day I didnt think DM was mafia so not voting Falcon there was 1.) a throwaway vote and 2.) leaving someone I was shielding to die there

I was one of the later votes, I cant remember if the final one or not. but made no sense to rock up and vanity vote when there were 2 distinct wagons and one was someone I was somewhat shielding

& as for Lemon, I kinda just dont think I saw her around much? Considering my own time constraints, I dont think we really crossed paths
You were both around at EoD, they posted their "legacy" right before you voted
when it came to EOD, I showed up with about.. half hour on the clock? so even then my main priority was just throw thoughts out n vote

In the following days, we werent really in thread around each other & I think I came back at one point and saw they were shot? Thats about it

That's not entirely true, I believe you asked about the wagon formation on Lemonfairy before they flipped?

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:24 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:18 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:15 pm You said last night as you unvoted that you thought you could get better responses out of me when I'm in danger

It's not. quite a situation of me being in danger right now, but if you want responses fire away while I compile a few things
Why did you vote falcon over sig D3, and why did you barely interact with Lemonfairy?
Sig wasnt a viable vote, would've been stuck on a vanity vote, and as I had said that day I didnt think DM was mafia so not voting Falcon there was 1.) a throwaway vote and 2.) leaving someone I was shielding to die there

I was one of the later votes, I cant remember if the final one or not. but made no sense to rock up and vanity vote when there were 2 distinct wagons and one was someone I was somewhat shielding

& as for Lemon, I kinda just dont think I saw her around much? Considering my own time constraints, I dont think we really crossed paths

You were both around at EoD, they posted their "legacy" right before you voted

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:15 pm You said last night as you unvoted that you thought you could get better responses out of me when I'm in danger

It's not. quite a situation of me being in danger right now, but if you want responses fire away while I compile a few things

Why did you vote falcon over sig D3, and why did you barely interact with Lemonfairy?

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:06 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:02 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:58 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:53 pm Yeah, this is bad. "If Davos flips town [...] one of these names is mafia."
Because mafia would want a day wasted.
My point is, we CAN get the mafia that way, but we have to take the risk.
It's fine though, I'll flip today.

Legacy is sig and Epi are town, I believe mafia are within Wilgy/Delta/leetic and Davos if it's a separate slot, less likely Delta than the others.

Thanks for a great game, and I hope you guys pull through
I keep coming back to this because it's like
It was so close to deadline, you had the extra vote on you, you didnt self pres etc so its like
I dont know what to make of it because when I say you towntold hard, I mean this

I dunno it's such a trivial thing to be weighing on my mind but it's still like
eh

It's stuck with me a lil I guess

I need to double check something though since you had the extra vote on you from the event and I cant remember if it's something Davos took part in or not
WWA and Davos crossvoted and were the main wagons, so it's not really a matter of refusing to self-pres
They unvoted the post after which put them back into the rand

I know people, myself included, had talked about the puppet having no weighting to their vote though, so it couldve been risk/reward kind of thing but eh

Hmm. That is similar to WWA unvoting in the crossvote earlier this phase. If WWA is a wolf, they've definitely taken some risks to get this far. Although in this case, WWA could have just thought they'd have a better shot of surviving a crossvote with Delta than with me and knew they could always put their vote back anyway with little risk, but it is still worth keeping in mind.

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:58 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:53 pm Yeah, this is bad. "If Davos flips town [...] one of these names is mafia."
Because mafia would want a day wasted.
My point is, we CAN get the mafia that way, but we have to take the risk.
It's fine though, I'll flip today.

Legacy is sig and Epi are town, I believe mafia are within Wilgy/Delta/leetic and Davos if it's a separate slot, less likely Delta than the others.

Thanks for a great game, and I hope you guys pull through
I keep coming back to this because it's like
It was so close to deadline, you had the extra vote on you, you didnt self pres etc so its like
I dont know what to make of it because when I say you towntold hard, I mean this

I dunno it's such a trivial thing to be weighing on my mind but it's still like
eh

It's stuck with me a lil I guess

I need to double check something though since you had the extra vote on you from the event and I cant remember if it's something Davos took part in or not

WWA and Davos crossvoted and were the main wagons, so it's not really a matter of refusing to self-pres

Delta wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:02 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:19 pm I swear, Delta better show up for EoD.
IM HERE ;O;

here from now until EOD

Are you going to be doing any of the analysis that you said you'd do?

I swear, Delta better show up for EoD.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:45 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:42 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:39 pm Actually uhhh 360 no scope [VOTE: windwardaway] aubergine

I just got bored enough to finally go back to reading some east facility isos and I feel better about wilgy and worse about wind again

Think wilgy posts dont quite make sense with either team but wind fits as landlord (and radish could still be the arbiter)

Wilgy did basically just never interact with brad yeah but idk just a vibe that i could easily see him as just uninformed while i could see your brad comments as a light bus
Read Brad's response to me, though
He didn't even reply directly to me and just went like, oh man, I thought you were town as soon as I voted him
You are the only non-flipped (non-me) name in his town list and I think it's decently likely he included his teammate actually. Put you second. I mean either way that gets read is just gonna be confbiased but I don't see why his response to you can't be a teammate interaction

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:14 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:12 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:07 pm i feel decently confident it's just wilgy and radishes
What makes you think WWA is least likely? I think it's obvious they aren't an arbiter but nothing I've seen clears them from being a landlord
Wind is possible, I just think she's been the towniest. I did scumread her at the beginning of the game in her back and forth with Alison, so it's in the back of my mind that it's possible she bounced back from that and has been fooling me since

Here are nutella's posts on WWA's activity in the previous thread I could find. The idea that WWA was paired with Brad turned out to be false, but there's still the other point, but it's not elaborated much so I'm not sure how much I can get from it

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:31 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:59 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:13 pm Look, in theory (a very questionable theory) we should just shoot into the East and have a 50% chance of hitting correctly.

But if we hit a town (and I can't help but feel we will) then the survivors need to abandon the idea of wolves only being there.
This is what I'm talking about playing against the hosts.

This is a gamblers fallacy.

Maybe they split shit up evenly.

Maybe they didn't.

You don't know.

Unless you do know.

Fuck the camps and get to work on who is bad.
Actually, I think this is probably why Epi got killed last night.
He never focused on whether the wolves would be evenly split between the threads, over who he thought was actually wolfiest.

Im looking through some stuff while I have a couple minutes free

Hmm, maybe. If Delta is the arbiter, maybe they came into this expecting me to vote you. I'm not sure how w!WWA would even want to approach this after killing Epi. The most likely scenario would be an attempted frame up on Delta, but eh.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:35 am
leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:12 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:12 pm
wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Epignosis - posts
sig - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm leetic - posts
nutella - posts
WindwardAway - posts
( )

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm TonyStarkPrime - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DarlingMonroe - posts
Delta - posts
Dyslexicon - posts
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - posts
Lemonfairy - posts
Cape90 - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DrWilgy - posts
Long Con - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Master Radishes - posts
Sloonei - posts

Next come the smiley posts, and while I probably should go over them I still really don't want to. However, this appears to be Ricochet's list of players based on falcon interactions (which we know to be entirely faked) so that is something a lot more straightforward, and sure I'll talk about WWA here too since I haven't talked about this post before. But first, Delta is in the same middle category as Lemonfairy, which is the largest grouping to boot. (For some reason, TSP gets their own category.) Windward is in a higher category, and if Ricochet wanted to put their partners in different categories it would point to Windward, but that's not something I would hold to any degree of certainty. Interestingly, the bottom two categories are free of any of Ricochet's partners; this does not appear to be typical of them (remember that they put falcon in the second to bottom category D1) so it may suggest that the arbiters were extremely wary of bussing after falcon's death.
I would like to return to this point. Remember how Lemonfairy never brought up their supposed suspicion on Delta again after falcon died? Or how despite pushing Delta quite a few times D3 Ricochet only put them in the middling category? I can easily see this being a shift in the wolves' strategy after their first domino fell.

I'll address a couple of potential counterarguments for Ricochet. Yes, they had a restriction (or were at least faking one) that made it difficult to communicate, and their push on Delta was mainly based on Delta potentially being pyxxy's partner. However, Ricochet knew who the arbiters were and could make the list anything they wanted. Furthermore, the smiley restriction would make people less likely to question where they put people, and it's not like you can't easily argue that Delta's falcon interactions are less than impressive. If Ricochet wanted to continue the push on Delta, they very easily could have.

Damn, I rarely ever do this, but [VOTE: unvote] aubergine. Yes, I'm now more unsure of who the final wolf is than ever. But more to the point, me voting WWA puts Delta into a very comfortable position for a wolf. I believe we can get better interactions out of Delta if they are in some sort of danger. And with my replacement phone in order, I should definitely be able to make it to EoD.

leetic wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:12 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:12 pm
wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Epignosis - posts
sig - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm leetic - posts
nutella - posts
WindwardAway - posts
( )

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm TonyStarkPrime - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DarlingMonroe - posts
Delta - posts
Dyslexicon - posts
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - posts
Lemonfairy - posts
Cape90 - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DrWilgy - posts
Long Con - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Master Radishes - posts
Sloonei - posts

Next come the smiley posts, and while I probably should go over them I still really don't want to. However, this appears to be Ricochet's list of players based on falcon interactions (which we know to be entirely faked) so that is something a lot more straightforward, and sure I'll talk about WWA here too since I haven't talked about this post before. But first, Delta is in the same middle category as Lemonfairy, which is the largest grouping to boot. (For some reason, TSP gets their own category.) Windward is in a higher category, and if Ricochet wanted to put their partners in different categories it would point to Windward, but that's not something I would hold to any degree of certainty. Interestingly, the bottom two categories are free of any of Ricochet's partners; this does not appear to be typical of them (remember that they put falcon in the second to bottom category D1) so it may suggest that the arbiters were extremely wary of bussing after falcon's death.

I would like to return to this point. Remember how Lemonfairy never brought up their supposed suspicion on Delta again after falcon died? Or how despite pushing Delta quite a few times D3 Ricochet only put them in the middling category? I can easily see this being a shift in the wolves' strategy after their first domino fell.

And that's everything, and once again I feel split. If you consider only their interactions with wolves, WindwardAway at least has a few votes that would have been bold coming from an arbiter, even if they are not clearing, while Delta has pretty much nothing impressive in their entire ISO. But if you look at wolves' interactions with them, it's a lot easier to believe that WindwardAway is a wolf, but going over the full context even the interactions with Delta aren't as clearing as they seem. And that's not even getting into any mechanical stuff. I was going into this believing the last wolf was like 75% WWA 25% Delta, but now I'm like 55% WWA if that.

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:17 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:11 pm As for Monroe, I was gonna ask what the Lime connections might be, but nutella just covered it.

nutella, what are you seeing in just four bitter posts?
squinty squint at nutella (just a little)

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:22 pm I have to close in an hour. Will try to finish a scan of the Darling wagoners.

Lemon wagoners probably not worth pursuing. And, in just two lines, there's nothing good looking left in there. I recall no serious push(es) from Nanook - just an instavote on sabi, due to lingering post-wolfflip, and then a tag vote right after Dizzy back and forth. Davos doesn't sound like making any trustworthy contribution all game and just plants votes. I trusted Scrappy more in West, I'd come back to whether Davos can be trusted, but not this phase, I suppose.
what does this mean? like the people on my wagon are OK and don't need to be pursued?
but then Ricochet says there's "nothing good looking left in there"??

Davos is probably not controlled by Ricochet's teammates?
there's a little shade but no solid conclusion

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:32 pm Epignosis wrt Delta pauses me a lot toDay.

He was chief detective on case-making Delta D2 wrt pyxxy interactions (lifelining him intermittently and starting what proved pyxxy's counterwagon chance). The thing about too many townreads was also a point.

Then the Delta wagon fizzled through.

And now Epignosis comes into the merge with just that one point about the townreads.
this looks unaligned for Epignosis

good thing about Ricochet's posts is that unlike falcon, who probably knew they were going to die, Ricochet was probs not expecting to be NK'd so there's no extra WIFOM to think about

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:51 pm I'm le tired.

I didn't even process Delta toDay.
Only note I had was that they noted Davos's drive-by vote on Lemon. No input.

Delta was my main pyxxy teammate profile, though. In that regard, I melded with Epig's D2 case. Signs of lifelining pyxxy into playing better and creating a cushion for a feasible counterwagon, till it proved too late. Could be.
Davos pretty unaligned too

--
I'm not about to decipher these smileys
if someone else wants to, pls be my guest

Despite quoting multiple posts that mention Delta, Lemonfairy doesn't once talk about Delta's chances of being partnered with Ricochet. It is also mighty convenient that Delta completely drops any "suspicion" of Delta after D3 despite having them as the wolfiest person on my side. Granted, that "read" was probably poorly-thought out, but there is no real progression here.

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 2:34 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 11:14 pm DarlingMonroe

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:30 pm I am not exactly sure why falcon has the votes he does, but I wanna keep playing and helping town/civilians
"I didn't try to find out."

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:08 pm going to falcon bc i dont feel safe with so many votes on me

im going to work so i wont be online for eod

love yall

[VOTE: vote:falcon ] aubergine really hope its mafia
DarlingMonroe is a highly compatible teammate with Falcon.
contrast above with:
DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:31 am Epi is giving very much wolf. Delta also pings. Not sure how to feel about this lemon wagon. I'd rather no.

Could be down to vote Epi, though. Oh and Wilgy too.
1. OMGUS wolfread on Epignosis
2. Delta pings but no explanation
3. Saw my wagon, said they would "rather not" but didn't explain (no commitment to read)

current Monroe:
1. OMGUS vote on me (I voted them D3)
2. Pinged by me and Radishes but no explanation
3. Keeps dropping names but doesn't explain/expand on reads

Lemonfairy seems to have the same reaction to the DM post as Ricochet did, right down to not noticing the Wilgy mention! It's such a minor reference to Delta in the grand scheme of things though

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:46 pm Quick ISOs. This list is alphabetical btw.
Delta - Cheerful and cutesy first impression. Posts have mostly neutral/even tone. Will put them at mid now and change later after I've seen everyone. Could be scum.
Epignosis - Couple of takes. Feels alright.
falcon45ca - Couple of takes. Too many spaces. Feels alright.
leetic - Strong focus on pyxxy wagon and what happened. Feels alright/mid.
Long Con - Likes some posts. Probably first slot I feel OK putting in towns.
☆Princess Abigail☆ - Fighting for wolf pelt means this is probs town Abigail? Can see a few takes from rest of posts. Might be being a bit too generous.
Ricochet - Now that I've seen these wallposts, I've realized how obnoxious mine was. Sorry. ISO feels alright/pretty good.
sig - Not much there. Feels alight/mid.
Sloonei - It's kind of alright. Although the bar is set pretty low at this point. A bit wordy.
TonyStarkPrime - I remember Dyslexicon calling Tony town at least twice (not relevant but thought I'd mention it). After ISOing, feels mid.
Scrappy Doo - Definitely better than whatever Davos is doing. Towny tone. Feels alright.

Ordered list:
Long Con
Ricochet
Princess Abigail

Epignosis
falcon
Sloonei
Scrappy Doo

leetic
Tony
sig

Delta

Something like this.
I skimmed a lot so take it with salt.

I've went over this post like a million times, I'm not even sure why I'm quoting it again. You know what, I'm not even coloring it in this time, too much effort when you can just look in my ISO. Again, obviously Delta is at the very bottom in their own category. The only thing that makes it not a complete clear is that Ricochet is high and falcon is in the middle, meaning it would be balanced in terms of high, middle, low, but why separate Delta from the other three on the bottom? I remember that nutella I believe tried to start a Delta wagon near the end of the day, but Lemonfairy never seemed interested in joining it (in fact, this is the only D3 Delta mention), granted Lemonfairy was pretty insistent in only voting someone from their own side of the thread.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:56 pm band

smoky smoky smoky

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Delta - posts
falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 3:27 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:48 am
Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:39 am
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:06 am I'd beg people to get off falcon but my thoughts on falcon are confusing and jumbled and I don't want to hurt town by pulling votes off a wolf if I'm wrong ugh

That said I'm rarely wrong on falcon. But Caitlin got me doubting myself...
What got you to your v!Falcon read to begin with?

I had something similar to this yesterday with people pushing Porscha ;_; so at least let's run through why you townread him to begin with and work from there? If you're rarely wrong on him, walk me through how you read him to begin with?

\o/
I read falcon entirely off vibes and D1 I hard town read how he was vibing lol
ah, got it
shrug

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:43 pm of our thread, I feel most confident in LC/Abbi/Sloonei/Ricochet town, Epi/Leetic/TSP to a slightly lesser extent. Leaves question marks around Falcon/Sig. if there's town in either would go back and look at those I'm not as confident.

From the other side of the thread, I think WWA/DrWilgy/MR/Nutella have all seemed fine to me, nothing sure due to being first day back w both threads but that's my gut read for the opposing thread. Off of pure gut read I dont really think DM's reactions today feel wolfy, more in line with what I've skimmed from town games, but without seeing other thread there's only so much I can say on that. The rest have kinda just been white noise, Cape slight town ping but nothing huge.

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'm more comfortable voting within my facility today, as I mentioned earlier, so \o/
glgl o/
burp

wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:02 pm member of the Arbiters of the Rose Empire
burger burger

Ricochet's post on Delta. I removed the colons from the smileys in case it would make the post any more readable. I still got nothing.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:12 pm
wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm falcon45ca - posts - Stanley Yelnats IV (Mafia)

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Epignosis - posts
sig - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm leetic - posts
nutella - posts
WindwardAway - posts
( )

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm TonyStarkPrime - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DarlingMonroe - posts
Delta - posts
Dyslexicon - posts
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - posts
Lemonfairy - posts
Cape90 - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm DrWilgy - posts
Long Con - posts

wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:42 pm Master Radishes - posts
Sloonei - posts

Next come the smiley posts, and while I probably should go over them I still really don't want to. However, this appears to be Ricochet's list of players based on falcon interactions (which we know to be entirely faked) so that is something a lot more straightforward, and sure I'll talk about WWA here too since I haven't talked about this post before. But first, Delta is in the same middle category as Lemonfairy, which is the largest grouping to boot. (For some reason, TSP gets their own category.) Windward is in a higher category, and if Ricochet wanted to put their partners in different categories it would point to Windward, but that's not something I would hold to any degree of certainty. Interestingly, the bottom two categories are free of any of Ricochet's partners; this does not appear to be typical of them (remember that they put falcon in the second to bottom category D1) so it may suggest that the arbiters were extremely wary of bussing after falcon's death.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:32 pm Epignosis wrt Delta pauses me a lot toDay.

He was chief detective on case-making Delta D2 wrt pyxxy interactions (lifelining him intermittently and starting what proved pyxxy's counterwagon chance). The thing about too many townreads was also a point.

Then the Delta wagon fizzled through.

And now Epignosis comes into the merge with just that one point about the townreads.

Another time when I want to quote another post for context. I believe this is the Epi post that Ricochet is referring to:

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 1:42 am One thing about Delta.

Delta has 900 people on the good list.

I mean, it looks like Ricochet is yelling at Epi for not pushing Delta harder. Thing is, this is an argument that Epi looks wolfy, not Delta.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:51 pm I'm le tired.

I didn't even process Delta toDay.
Only note I had was that they noted Davos's drive-by vote on Lemon. No input.

Delta was my main pyxxy teammate profile, though. In that regard, I melded with Epig's D2 case. Signs of lifelining pyxxy into playing better and creating a cushion for a feasible counterwagon, till it proved too late. Could be.

Interesting that the only thing about Delta that Ricochet found noteworthy was Delta's interaction with another arbiter. This is another post that I'd find a bit weird if everyone involved is an arbiter. I'm not even sure what point this is supposed to make about Lemon. The rest is a bit of hedging, but Ricochet does seem insistent on giving Epi the credit for the read, which would make more sense if Delta is non-arbiter than arbiter, as Ricochet would want towncred for the bus. The one thing that doesn't add up about that, though, is that the case is about Delta being a pyxxy's partner (aka a landlord), and I'm not sure why Ricochet would be so quick to give all the credit to a potential landlord flip to Epi (unless they really wanted to lay low?). I think I found something that doesn't make sense regardless of how Delta flips!

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 1:10 pm So I'll work my way from the wagons to others, within my capability.

Wagons

Overall, I'd favor a falcon lynch over a Lemon or Monroe one. Grouping bias is a factor, cuz I've played and judged falcon down in West, whereas I know less on why the other two are wolfread or didn't catch all the details from others' cases.

Between Lemon and Monroe, I'd place Monroe within question marks, both in regards to why they've become a D3 wagon and what they've done in response.

So, falcon > Monroe > Lemon

falcon

West - pyxxy connection: none that could have been established, because they interacted with / mentioned each other a total of zero times
West D1-D2 judgement: ended D2 with a low opinion on him and down on my would-vote list; excluding pyxxy connections I considered (Porscha, Delta), he was the lowest ranked de facto. West gameplay resembled current gameplay: brief intervals of engagement, much of which was spent prodding others (with a degree of randomness, never focused) or reactive-toned defending when voted/wagoned
D3 judgement:
-- pretty much the same, tone and grasp of play have not improved.
-- noted him hitting back in rebuttal form at most of his wagoners (Sloonei's characterisations, calling MRadishes opportunistic, bark back at nutella), plus placing three others (leetic, sig, Abigail) within wolf pairings with no reasoning. so pretty much a kind of "you're all bad" howl.
-- parked defense into two main ideas: that the Western nightkills are a frame and that he is towning like mad and we fail to see it. Former boils down to wifom, as leetic also said; latter is not something I can agree with, based on what I've judged. I've read or remember no strong meta read from others on this gameplay, as it stands, being town!falcon indicative
-- meanwhile, withheld to offer townreads (apart from not wanting to vote LC and Epignosis).
-- of his votes, Abigail and Monroe were/are without discernible cause. Monroe isn't even the counterwagon to self-pres on, at the moment

Monroe
D3 judgement: only 3 posts, of which their essence is an aggro response and vote on Epignosis (for their vote / case on them); other reads (Delta ping, wouldn't wagon Lemon) all vague. It doesn't look great, of course, to drop and omgus upon the very first interaction with a player from the other group. But also not the deepest material to make a solid case out of. Hence the question mark status.

Lemon
D3 judgement: I'd structure 3 phases, thus far, of activity.
-- first phase (posts 1-3) in which she mentioned postponing activity and also a statement on the merger being a sensible disorienting moment. I think some wagoned her starting for as little as this and, without proper context if this would classify as a pattern from wolf!lemon (that I can remember), I felt it was undeserved.
-- second phase (pre legacy post), with a first wave of rebuttals (at nutella and Windward). something about wanting to sit more on it. at worst, could display nerviness in face of pressure.
-- third phase (the legacy post): quite a shift from small bites to extensive reads. rebuttal-wise, argues more than the cases on her are not solid or convincing, then also tiers the wagoners based on individual performance. if this alone (or more of this throughout D3), without suss pressure, would have been Lemon's activity, I'd probably read it well. given suss and wagon pressure, I am missing meta info on whether Lemon would as to go steroids, from feeble to opinionated, as wolf. also, a bit funny to have labeled it as "legacy", as if the lynch is a done deal.

tldr: falcon suss (with no prevailing meta info that he towns this way), Monroe who knows (startled by bad form, but tis all so far), lemon no real ping on her elaborate reply

I'll probably go through Rico's posts a bit more slowly, as there is a lot of stuff that I somehow missed. Notably, Delta gets mentioned twice in this post that has little to do with them (colored orange for visibility). Both of them are interesting; Delta gets mentioned alongside flipped town Porscha as a potential pyxxy partner, though this is used to mention that falcon was the same (which mostly aligns with what was said in the previous thread, although Ricochet's look at falcon was more "there is nothing I can say here"). In the second one, DM's reads on Delta and flipped arbiter Lemon are both called vague. This is in fact the second time that Delta is paired with a flipped arbiter in one of Ricochet's posts; the first was from the previous thread when they had Delta and falcon in the lowest tier besides me. Let's quote these "vague" reads, why not:

DarlingMonroe wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:31 am Epi is giving very much wolf. Delta also pings. Not sure how to feel about this lemon wagon. I'd rather no.

Could be down to vote Epi, though. Oh and Wilgy too.

Well, it's just one post? Although I don't think DM posted much at that point. DM's alleged "reads" on Lemonfairy and Delta that Ricochet called out were opposite, so maybe this isn't worth looking too deeply into, but it is interesting that Ricochet completely missed the mention of Wilgy.

I looked through falcon's ISO once again, post by post, to confirm that falcon indeed does not have any D3 interactions with Delta.

Delta wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 7:48 pm davos' vote popped up on lemonfairy, dont know if that was there before ?_?

This is Delta's only mention of Lemonfairy D3. Delta did express an interest in Davos in their opener, so it's not like this post came out of nowhere. But Lemonfairy was being voted by (at least) NANOOK and Dyslexicon at the time, so it is a little interesting that they had no further comment on the wagon. And as I said before, Lemonfairy's absence from the post where they vote falcon is noticeable.

Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:47 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:46 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 5:22 pm I have to close in an hour. Will try to finish a scan of the Darling wagoners.

Lemon wagoners probably not worth pursuing. And, in just two lines, there's nothing good looking left in there. I recall no serious push(es) from Nanook - just an instavote on sabi, due to lingering post-wolfflip, and then a tag vote right after Dizzy back and forth. Davos doesn't sound like making any trustworthy contribution all game and just plants votes. I trusted Scrappy more in West, I'd come back to whether Davos can be trusted, but not this phase, I suppose.
Chooses to basically ignore the Lemon wagon, interesting. I would not be surprised if there was at least one Arbiter among them
Is there a record of what the wagon was like at that point?

I can go back and get a manually compiled version otherwise

I was about to say that was the only pre-flip Lemonfairy interaction, but then I noticed this post from D5, which doesn't really move the needle either way. I guess I'm a little late on this one, but the wagon was NANOOK and Davos (per the post), with maybe Abby on it at that point as well? All three flipped not arbiter. I don't think Delta ever got that "manually compiled version"?

No pre-flip interactions with Ricochet aside from the post I colored in, so I'll quote something post-flip to be different. (I just realized that Delta did next to nothing D4)

Delta wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:40 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:30 pm Assuming Ricochet was killed by the landlords, I doubt whoever doing so did so with the intent of shooting a wolf, as I don't think anyone expressed a strong wolfread of them as of late. I mean, it is possible they had mechanical evidence against Ricochet but never confronted them in-thread as they were afraid of crossfire, but that's pure speculation at this point. They may have been killed for their reads (or another standard reason like PR hunting, although I'm not sure how wolves would do this when claiming isn't allowed (again, discounting the possibility that they had mechanical evidence)) though unfortunately their D2 material is basically unreadable.
I do kinda think Rico was assumed to be town by landlords considering they were fairly townread, at least from what I remember?

And maybe a given since majority of wolves had come from our side at that point, but probably just reaffirms the idea that majority of the wolves sit in the other thread because if Rico was killed for being townread, it was probably under the assumption of 'this thread has much more town in the remaining numbers than ours did'

at least maybe? Like I said it's probably a given with the amount of flipped wolves from our thread vs the other but it's what came to mind regardless

I dont know if all wolves from ours are gone, unsure if there would be an even split? but eh

I mean, maybe I'm just quoting this just to find something to say. Ricochet was indeed widely townread, and there weren't many people who seriously pushed him, especially not in the merged thread. So I guess I can say that this reaction to the flip doesn't look unnatural, at least.

Alright, retry, now with 100% less fucked-up formatting!

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:39 am
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:06 am I'd beg people to get off falcon but my thoughts on falcon are confusing and jumbled and I don't want to hurt town by pulling votes off a wolf if I'm wrong ugh

That said I'm rarely wrong on falcon. But Caitlin got me doubting myself...
What got you to your v!Falcon read to begin with?

I had something similar to this yesterday with people pushing Porscha ;_; so at least let's run through why you townread him to begin with and work from there? If you're rarely wrong on him, walk me through how you read him to begin with?

\o/

This time around I am going to be thorough, and I'll start by actually looking at the previous thread to see what the context with Porscha is. In the other thread, Delta posted a townread on Porscha based on tone, and Porscha of course flipped town. Read in that context, this can be seen as an attempt to push Abby to make a defense of falcon, and if Delta is a wolf this would be a good way to try and get heat off of falcon without getting themselves too deeply involved.

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:43 pm of our thread, I feel most confident in LC/Abbi/Sloonei/Ricochet town, Epi/Leetic/TSP to a slightly lesser extent. Leaves question marks around Falcon/Sig. if there's town in either would go back and look at those I'm not as confident.

From the other side of the thread, I think WWA/DrWilgy/MR/Nutella have all seemed fine to me, nothing sure due to being first day back w both threads but that's my gut read for the opposing thread. Off of pure gut read I dont really think DM's reactions today feel wolfy, more in line with what I've skimmed from town games, but without seeing other thread there's only so much I can say on that. The rest have kinda just been white noise, Cape slight town ping but nothing huge.

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'm more comfortable voting within my facility today, as I mentioned earlier, so \o/
glgl o/

This vote was posted at 6:43 PM (EST, all times going forward will be in EST for convenience), seventeen minutes before EoD, and this was Delta's first vote of the day. Looking forward, here are the votes:

6:49: Lemonfairy votes DM (I believe this was their first vote of the day)
6:57: Abby votes falcon (switching off of Lemonfairy)

Working backwards, the three main wagons just before Delta's vote were:

falcon: 7 (sig, WindwardAway, Ricochet, Long Con, leetic, DarlingMonroe, DrWilgy)
DM: 5 (falcon45ca, Master Radishes, TonyStarkPrime, Epignosis, Sloonei)
Lemonfairy: 3 (NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Davos, ☆Princess Abigail☆)

Now, the one thing you can say in favor here is that Delta and Lemonfairy could have both jumped on DM to tie with falcon, as they were both online at the same time, even if Abby's switch would've still ruined their plans. However, the one thing we have to consider is that Delta's first post that day was this:

Delta wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:33 pm hihi o/ will be around in a bit, have caught up but will share my thoughts once I'm free

could someone from the other thread run me through how Davos approached things while split? would kinda like to look into both the sock puppets here since the fact we have two is interesting

agreed with the general idea of voting within our facilities today & will follow suit \o/

They may have felt constrained by their pledge to vote someone from their own side. They had sig as an option, and even mentioned a suspicion of sig in post 449, but ultimately chose falcon who they had not posted a suspicion of (at least not in this thread). Granted, converging can be a good idea if you want to save the CW, and to be fair Delta did point out that the DM wagon was mostly composed of voters from my side, meaning from a town perspective they did have reason to be skeptical of the DM wagon, but their mention of DM in the quoted post is a little hedgy. And you also have to consider that Delta and Lemonfairy being on DM would have resulted in three arbiters being on the wagon in a w!Delta world, and they may have thought that it would look terrible for them if falcon did end up flipping, as even their best hope is a tie. I guess the one variable is if Delta is known for bold gambits like this as wolf, but from my experience, most (non-NSM) wolves don't do this kind of thing.

As for the other part of the post, Ricochet and falcon are on opposite ends of the list, making it balanced (see Ricochet listing falcon > DM > Lemonfairy in order from wolfiest to towniest of the three main wagons. He didn't mention Lemonfairy at all, which is interesting. (For the record, he also didn't list Sabiplz, Dyslexicon, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, and Davos. Most of these are understandable since they're slankers, but Lemonfairy's absense does stand out as they were working on their "legacy" when Delta wrote this.)

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:39 am
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:06 am I'd beg people to get off falcon but my thoughts on falcon are confusing and jumbled and I don't want to hurt town by pulling votes off a wolf if I'm wrong ugh

That said I'm rarely wrong on falcon. But Caitlin got me doubting myself...
What got you to your v!Falcon read to begin with?

I had something similar to this yesterday with people pushing Porscha ;_; so at least let's run through why you townread him to begin with and work from there? If you're rarely wrong on him, walk me through how you read him to begin with?

\o/

This time around I am going to be thorough, and I'll start by actually looking at the previous thread to see what the context with Porscha is. In the other thread, Delta posted a townread on Porscha based on tone, and Porscha of course flipped town. Read in that context, this can be seen as an attempt to push Abby to make a defense of falcon, and if Delta is a wolf this would be a good way to try and get heat off of falcon without getting themselves too deeply involved.

Delta wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:43 pm of our thread, I feel most confident in LC/Abbi/Sloonei/Ricochet town, Epi/Leetic/TSP to a slightly lesser extent. Leaves question marks around Falcon/Sig. if there's town in either would go back and look at those I'm not as confident.

From the other side of the thread, I think WWA/DrWilgy/MR/Nutella have all seemed fine to me, nothing sure due to being first day back w both threads but that's my gut read for the opposing thread. Off of pure gut read I dont really think DM's reactions today feel wolfy, more in line with what I've skimmed from town games, but without seeing other thread there's only so much I can say on that. The rest have kinda just been white noise, Cape slight town ping but nothing huge.

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

I'm more comfortable voting within my facility today, as I mentioned earlier, so \o/
glgl o/

This vote was posted at 6:43 PM (EST, all times going forward will be in EST for convenience), seventeen minutes before EoD, and this was Delta's first vote of the day. Looking forward, here are the votes:

6:49: Lemonfairy votes DM (I believe this was their first vote of the day)
6:57: Abby votes falcon (switching off of Lemonfairy)

Working backwards, the three main wagons just before Delta's vote were:

falcon: 7 (sig, WindwardAway, Ricochet, Long Con, leetic, DarlingMonroe, DrWilgy)
DM: 5 (falcon45ca, Master Radishes, TonyStarkPrime, Epignosis, Sloonei)
Lemonfairy: 3 (NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Davos, ☆Princess Abigail☆)

Now, the one thing you can say in favor here is that Delta and Lemonfairy could have both jumped on DM to tie with falcon, as they were both online at the same time, even if Abby's switch would've still ruined their plans. However, the one thing we have to consider is that Delta's first post that day was this:

Delta wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:33 pm hihi o/ will be around in a bit, have caught up but will share my thoughts once I'm free

could someone from the other thread run me through how Davos approached things while split? would kinda like to look into both the sock puppets here since the fact we have two is interesting

agreed with the general idea of voting within our facilities today & will follow suit \o/

They may have felt constrained by their pledge to vote someone from their own side. They had sig as an option, and even mentioned a suspicion of sig in post 449, but ultimately chose falcon who they had not posted a suspicion of (at least not in this thread). Granted, converging can be a good idea if you want to save the CW, and to be fair Delta did point out that the DM wagon was mostly composed of voters from my side, meaning from a town perspective they did have reason to be skeptical of the DM wagon, but their mention of DM in the quoted post is a little hedgy. And you also have to consider that Delta and Lemonfairy being on DM would have resulted in three arbiters being on the wagon in a w!Delta world, and they may have thought that it would look terrible for them if falcon did end up flipping, as even their best hope is a tie. I guess the one variable is if Delta is known for bold gambits like this as wolf, but from my experience, most (non-NSM) wolves don't do this kind of thing.

As for the other part of the post, Ricochet and falcon are on opposite ends of the list, making it balanced (see Ricochet listing falcon > DM > Lemonfairy in order from wolfiest to towniest of the three main wagons. He didn't mention Lemonfairy at all, which is interesting. (For the record, he also didn't list Sabiplz, Dyslexicon, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, and Davos. Most of these are understandable since they're slankers, but Lemonfairy's absense does stand out as they were working on their "legacy" when Delta wrote this.)

Anyway, I'll go over Delta's interactions in this thread with flipped wolves once more. I did it yesterday, but at LyLo it's best to leave no stone unturned and all that.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 2:18 pm I've been trying to read Wilgy's posts for whatever good that does.
Because I do believe he was genuinely hunting for the last wolf, but then again it wouldn't have mattered to him who got lunched as long as it wasn't him.
He put extremely heavy suspicion on leetic two days ago and said he'd bet the game on leetic being a wolf, but spent all of yesterday pushing back against my case that he had to be Davos's owner and that I had to specifically be an arbiter to think that, and didn't really revisit leetic at all but instead pointed a weak finger at Epi, who has since flipped town.
But like, no, that was a bogus counterargument and Wilgy knew it lol. Wilgy was the only other one besides me from East Facility. And Davos flipped landlord. So that's the thing that sealed the deal for me, Wilgy never truly scumhunted me, he pushed me for being a wolf on the basis that I was pushing that he was a landlord, which he was.
This came up cause I was looking through leetic's posts from the day we yeeted Davos, and it got me wondering, how close were we to a full solve that day, as compared to yesterday? There was more pushback then, while yesterday was considerably more quiet.

Wilgy's push on me was an OMGUS, after I concluded (at F9 I believe?) that Wilgy was the most likely wolf from your side. He did the exact same thing with nutella, but said feud conveniently ended with nutella's death (and his push on you may have been the same as well). This was actually one of the reasons I wolfread Wilgy: he pulled a similar OMGUS on me on the only other wolf game of his that I've seen, and while that was eight years ago I guess old habits die hard. I am certainly mystified why he gave up a push on me to go after his sock partner, but I guess that'll have to be something I'll ask him in postgame.

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:09 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:07 pm The more I think about it, the less likely a significant disparity of 3 vs 1 wolf in one thread seems. I'm glad Delta seems to be stepping up here, I was a bit worried the game might already be lost due to them not showing up.
;_; I do apologise, been a series of unfortunate events & other things that are my fault

this is the first f3 ive been part of and being handed hammer - its not really hammer but theres the cross there so it does feel like it comes down to me - is terrifying so I want to be thorough, both from a mech standpoint and a reads one

This is my second F3 as far as I can remember, though I have been in a few F4s. First time didn't go so well; I got the wolf correct but was unable to convince the other townie in time. It's definitely stressful, especially when you can't enter the thread for large stretches of time, but fortunately that should no longer be an issue for me.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:02 pm As for me, idk if I really have much of a defense, I can tell you that in East thread I mostly pushed Alison and Nutella at the start, then reversed my Nutella read, happily wagoned Brad, and misyeeted Alison.

I can't exactly take your word for it since nobody's around to fact-check, although if any past statements in this thread from dead townies corroborate your claims it would be helpful if you could quote them.

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