speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:43 am
The infamous D2 TIE!!!!
Here we go:
Here are a couple of before and after polls, placing LC's vote as being worth 2 (-2)
The minus 2 assumes that Quin is town. If Quin is scum, LC's vote was worth 2. If Quin is town, his vote was worth 0. Thus, 2 (with an optional -2 addition).
What actually happened:
DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 5 or 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4
changed to
DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4
What LC saw if he isn't scum with DDL:
DDL - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 7 or 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4
changed to
DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4
I'm assuming DDL did not put -2 points on me, as scum or town.
. . .
Been staring at these polls for ten minutes. Some observations:
1. If Quin was scum with LC, and his vote was worth 2, LC
changed the tide of the lynch. LC did so in a dangerous way, one that revealed that vote manipulations were taking place. He was also the most suspect vote in this case. That's a blow to LC/Quin.
2. If DDL was scum with LC, and Quin was town, then LC would have known what was most likely happening. He also would have seen that the guy with 4 votes (me) getting lynched over the guy with 6 votes (DDL) would have been very incriminating. So he might have vote hopped to avoid suspicion. His vote was
probably worth zero anyway, and he might as well make the result look more legitimate. Also, the more he votes for townies, the more -1s he has to his vote. This would help explain how DDL avoided lynching the following day as well. LC is trying to make his vote into a train nullifier.
3. If neither are scum with LC, then LC's vote is most likely worth zero in his eyes. He may have switched his vote at the end to find out, just in case there are other scumteams. That's the only reason I can think of.
It's a difficult puzzle, but I'd say of these three, result 2 is most likely, followed by result 3. Much as I was just suspecting Quin, I don't think LC would have tried to change the tide of the lynch for no reason. LC/Quin is disproven in my book.
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Also, the Nutella lynch on the following day:
DDL (-2 votes) - Epi, cbob, speedchuck, nutella, DH, LC = 4
nutella - Dom, DDL, SVS = 3
If Quin and I are both town, LC's vote was worth -1, two less than normal. If Quin is scum, it's worth 1. Soooo Quin is basically townfirmed. I don't know why we argued with this earlier. Quin and speechuck1 are both townfirms.
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Talk to me about all of this please.
Also
[VOTE:
DDL] aubergine
linkis: Yeah DDL is totes bad guys