The Syndicate

I figured Martin was town on D1. That's why I red checked him.

GG all!

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine ok

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

I mean, if LC is scum, game would have ended 26 hours ago, so...

But I'll be nice and wait.

I'm fine with immediately voting but I'll hold off in case we wanna chat.

Weekend is starting for me, so, uh... got things to do.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:36 pm The only person who's truly cleared in my mind is Marmot, it's easy to imagine Speed or LC missing an opportunity to win, especially given that it was 3/2 char speed and 3/2 char LC at various points in the last few minutes. Everyone who wasn't marmot had at least 2 votes on them in the last 5 minutes

I think you're exaggerating. LC and I were just hopping back and forth between you and Char, mostly. I think you got Marmot to vote me with you for a bit, and I voted LC as a one-off at some point, but that was more like last 3 hours, not last 5 minutes.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:01 am Potential for mod lies!

The only lie:

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:01 am Possibly bastard!

I have finally posted enough times for a full day/night phase.

40 posts per phase was more than enough thank you.

Reading over Tony's last posts and looking at votes... I think he still be scum.

First, the votes:

Chardonnay - 3 Voters: speedchuck, TonyStarkPrime, Long Con
TSP - 2 Voters: Marmot, chardonnay

If TSP is town, then myself or LC could have easily won if we were scum by just throwing a vote on him. We were there, and it wasn't that chaotic or one-sided.
That leaves Marmot and, of course, TSP. TSP couldn't have switched like LC and I could, or it'd be too obvious who both scum are. And Marmot stayed on TSP. Ergo, scum is between TSP and Marmot. That I'm sure of.

Then, after narrowing it down, we can look at posts. Marmot's... aren't bad. But he DID have the chance to hammer TSP, and didn't, so that's good. And his opposition to the Chard wagon even when it would be less dangerous to bus char looked pretty good. The 'Char isn't even here!' argument is almost a so-bad-it's-good sort of thing. It's too blatant to be a teammate defense, maybe. And his waffling between me and tsp looks genuinely uncertain I think.

Tony's posts look more like a built-up bus as he realized what was going on. He was quick to link me in with a Char/Speed callout (I recognize that Marmot did something similar, but given that he was completely wrong and less pushy about it it feels less calculated.) Combined with his earlier resignation and his constant pushing toward the easiest target (My relative absence from this game combined with Marmot's refusal to hammer TSP earlier makes me an EZ clap) I think pushed him over the top. Then there's the fake 'Is the game over yet?' stuff. One post of that is okay, maybe, depending. TSP posted that sentiment more than once, in an 'IDK if the game is over or not guys' kinda move.

This may be kinda obvious to everyone but obvious cases are the best kind. If anyone but TSP was the other scum, the game would be over (LC/Speed switch or marmot hammer). GG scumteam if I'm right, scum deserves the win if I'm wrong, and where tf are the bastard mechanics?

I'm going to go get my work done.

yeet

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:01 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:00 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:59 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:59 pm speed doesn't care about the chop

He feels like he cares like I do!

what

I mean if you were faking the anguish, it resonated with my own. Is the game over then?

Ah okay gotcha.

I vibe with that.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:59 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:59 pm speed doesn't care about the chop

He feels like he cares like I do!

what

TSP or CHAr pls choose one minte

EL SEE STOP

[VOTE: Char] aubergine

I will NOT let this end in a tie tyvm

EL CEEEEEE

Wait fuck LC moved

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine you little butt

A tie. Amazing.

I'm back

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine
About to drive.
I'll revote when I get home. The vote swing is there. 20 minutes. Discus.

I know nothing meta-wise about chard. The above is more of a case than I've seen on TSP, but question is, do you have anything other than possible LC alignment?

I know I laid my LC skeevyness out, but is there anything incriminating directly on Char?

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:58 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:22 pm I will get to that when I finish my long con case post

I read your case, but you didn't talk about anyone else, just LC.

Ended up waffling too much and forgot.

Doesn't really matter. If LC is scum, this game is all but over. I can't see myself convincing you or anyone else (or myself) to pull out the big guns and lay the votes down.

Another reason I voted TSP. I don't think I can sway things at this point (except maybe onto myself) and that makes TSP a necessary gamble to take.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:34 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:33 pm I'm busy today, I can't lurk around a slow thread and wait for someone to talk to.

You mean other than Marmot and I?

When I posted that, it had been nearly an hour since either of you posted. Which is significant, with so little time left.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:33 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:33 pm [VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Can you walk me through your decision?

My best argument for a scum lynch is the one I just gave for you, and I don't feel too strongly about it. I doubt the final hours will see a flurry of activity and thought-out opinions. TSP has all but resigned, which is usually not a good sign vis a vis the resigned's alignment.

What I can do is make sure the vote isn't as manipulatable for scum.

I'm busy today, I can't lurk around a slow thread and wait for someone to talk to.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:32 pm I don't think you can derpclear off forgetting things discussed in the thread?

Feel like a scumboi wouldn't forget that he's not one vote away from winning the game.

Doesn't mean a whole lot if you were scum with Char or TSP tho I guess

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:29 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:11 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:08 am Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.

No, I was just operating on a false assumption of hammer 3.

. . .

lol derpclear?

HI LONG CON! I just DESTROYED you with FATS and LOGIC

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:44 pm

chardonnay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:49 pm I was under the impression that Martian response's impacted you badly, because in part, he was AtEing. Tho it was Martin who specify mentioned that he was AtEing out of frustration. Maybe you didn't perceive it that way at all.

Sorry, if i keep making incorrect assumptions about how you play. Thats a bad habit of mine w/ regaruds to players i have minor to moderate exp with.

How do you feel about Made's vote on Martin when he thought it was EoD now? I also thought it was curious, but wasnt sure if there was info there to break down.

It's a little sketchy. Maybe Martin is town and Made is not. He agreed with me maybe too easily on Martin, especially when I think most other players disagree with my points on him.

I'm going to diverge and disagree with Martin's final take. I think the LC push on Martin was NotGood^tm. It started from Martin causing a tie to happen on D1. LC called that scummy because it was bad for town. 'Town has no motivation to do that,' he said. I posited (and still do) that MAFIA has no reason to do that either! It was a derp play, or a forgetful moment, or whatever, which we now know.
LC hammered on this only a little, Martin got defensive and sarcastic, started playing to meta and post count and other such things. Things that can feel like overdefensiveness, but I swear to the mafia gods we should be past lynching people for overdefensiveness. LC said it made him suspect Martin more.
And then he dropped it, and Martin said it felt genuine, and we all promptly forgot about it.

I don't get why it was dropped, I think LC's push felt like snapping up an easy lynchbait from the poorly-placed vote, and LC's dropping it (when no one else really picked it up) was... not that great? Maybe not directly scummy, but I thought it ingenuine.

The above post is just bewhilderingly bold, if LC is scum. "Nobody believes in my ingenuine case except you? You must be scum!" *lynches town Made*

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:42 am I'd say the one town member out of Tony, chard, and chuck needs to make themselves known in a real way somehow.

It's not Martin or Marmot because I came to suspect them on my own and I'm just probably wrong. I think I might be able to start using my wrongness as a positive solving tool.

The above post sort of takes all credibility and thus, responsibility, away from LC. It doesn't *look* like a bad post, but the end effect (subtly intended effect?) is that we can drop all of the above and not worry so much about LC's cases one way or another.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:08 am Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

I don't like the 'understanding' take here. "Wait, I wasn't thinking about the way you might see it, since of course, you can't know how town I am. You HAVE to think that. I get you." It just feels manipulative, on a base level, but also like it's trying really hard not to give off that feeling.

That's all I got. In the grand scheme of things, not much, but I'd like to hear thoughts if anyone has time in the next three hours.

I will get to that when I finish my long con case post

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

(I am willing to switch to TSP right now and end this day but I want to weigh this option)

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:08 am Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.

Oh, hey, me and marmot are online at the same time.

So that's helpful I guess.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:05 am So! How is Tony still alive?

If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.

So he can't be town.

Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.

I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.

Let's finish this attention-starved game.

He could be town if the mafia are already voting for him. Honestly, with hammer at 4, that entire tell is useless. Imagine, the only time that the tell says anything is if:

Case - three town, two mafia.

two town vote for the other townie. Mafia can hammer with two more votes. This is the only way a double trouble surprise hammer can happen.

So how is tony still alive? Well, either tony is mafia, or LC is mafia, or Char is mafia. This literally only rules out speed/marmot, and even then only if we were both online at the same time to hammer.

Let's just ignore this technique methinks.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:07 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:48 pm why not speed? you ask? well, I don't believe that speed would be the kind of person to fake derps. simple enough.

That's not really a derpclear, it's not like that information was available outside of that post.

Yeah, I don't read host posts.

You guys can safely ignore that.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:03 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:22 am Not to my knowledge. If it exists, this is probably a really good time to reveal it. I think Tony forgot about it? Which doesn't look great.

I'll stay on Tony, speedchuck. I am Town, and so I like your logic about it being more likely Tony is bad as time goes on.

definitely forgot.
But more seriously, I think nk analysis points away. marmot not dying d1 points away. Marmot was on the ride or die chop TSP train and when mafia chose death they didn't kill marmot. And maybe I towntold somewhere and don't remember.

Which is why you wanted someone else to say it, I guess. If a person extols their own innocence due to NK analysis, it's pretty much bunk.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:01 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:55 am So, uh.

LC has had a vote on TSP for 3 hours. Assuming two scum, we're sitting with a viable hammer. If we risk this much longer, it will become apparent that either:
LC is scum.
TSP is scum.
Scum can't coordinate worth a damn/marmot is scum and hasn't shown up.

I mean, it's not apparent yet, but the bait is there. If it stays, eventually the above will be proven, or we'll lose the game. It's not a lot, but it's something.

hammer at 4

... no?

Even if there is somehow only one mafia, no. Hammer is at three.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:24 am I guess that kind of forces a town member to take a leap of faith on MY alignment over even Tony's?

Or, Tony's hypothetical partner steps up to bus to try and get that sliver of towncred?

Or, Chard and Marmot are bad, and just haven't been here yet.

It's not super clear cut.

For example, if I were scum, I'd still need Char or Marmot here at the same time to hammer TSP with me. So nothing is proven yet, I think.

Tony's partner could step up and bus, yeah, but it'd be dangerous to do so. One vote on TSP is a test. The second would be an invitation.

Or you're scum, which... yeah, leap of faith is a good word. I always find it really hard to read people in a game with no scumflips.

I'll watch.

Wait, I forgot, there's an obvious reason TSP is town.

Did we ever figure out what that was?

chardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:11 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:21 pm Oh and I would like to emphasize one thing:

Long Con should be lock-town IMO, his whole progression for D2 feels very genuine, and while perhaps a scum could replicate it at certain points I really don't think that's plausible.

hmm, ok, this points against LC scum.

I dont think anybody else was TRing LC as hard as Martin was yesterday. That'd be a weird kill to make.

I say it's a good point Martin made. Dunno if the kill has anything to do with it.

Does anyone recall Martin/Marmot feeling anti-aligned on D2, just with the back and forth that was going on? Or was that just me?

So, uh.

LC has had a vote on TSP for 3 hours. Assuming two scum, we're sitting with a viable hammer. If we risk this much longer, it will become apparent that either:
LC is scum.
TSP is scum.
Scum can't coordinate worth a damn/marmot is scum and hasn't shown up.

I mean, it's not apparent yet, but the bait is there. If it stays, eventually the above will be proven, or we'll lose the game. It's not a lot, but it's something.

chardonnay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:02 am Actually @TonyStarkPrime & @speedchuck

what do you think of LC's movement away from SRing Marmot recently?

I don't like it. "It didn't take" is a terrible reason for town to drop a scumread.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:34 pm Damn you Martin. Why'd you have to go and leave me here?

Let's yeet someone bad. Tony? Chard? Speed?

I read this as you having a town read on Marmot?

Damn.

I'm not bad. Pretty sure I can solve the whole game tomorrow though. Sorry I wasn't around more, weekends are hard.

chardonnay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:20 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:26 pm

chardonnay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:07 am Oh yeah, Made exudes town looking paranoia several times this game. Expressing concerns over things that I dont think mafia would be comfortable asserting. Like the "Maybe mod OP is lie, and ties aren't mafia kill choice" line.

I think tonally he looks town over all I'd say.

-/-/-/-

Ill lookit LC tomorrow.

So (I was looking at Char and remembered this:)

The 'maybe OP lies and ties aren't mafia choice' is just the worst thing. -EV. Not a helpful observation. It's like observing that 'Maybe Esoaa was scum and the flip was a lie.' It's unhelpful for town to consider calling those bluffs, because it's what we have to work with.

Don't remember the context, but if Made was going 'Eh, don't worry about the Tie,' that's bad. If they were being subtle about it, that's worse.

maybe its personal pref but i feel most scum avoid making blatant unhelpful/anti-town observations for the exact reason that they could get SR'd for it

Iduno maybe I should just say 'Vibe' I'm having trouble articulating why Made's ISO is meh to me

[VOTE: Made] aubergine

Seeing a lot of egging on from the sidelines to push people in direction, not a whole lot of leading or genuine consideration of points? It is hilarious, but I have no idea where Made stands.