The Syndicate

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

oh no I'm dying

I think he's largely removed a lot of the tonal tells but it used to be reasonably obvious on d1 (imo). But his Day 1 in Witcher was tonally on point, fooled both me and Alison.

He can't really generate the same excitement, he feels more normal, and he openwolfs hard (he occasionally also does this as town)

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:36 am falcon's not really posting himself clear, do you think that's rand town for him?

yeah but also it's kinda about how he posts. there's a recent wolf game for comparison (Witcher). my guess is my old meta tells are weaker than they used to be but in witcher he's still pretty clearly in wolf meta by the end of the game

probably at approx the one time I reared my head in thread

order -> dolby -> ilario -> G -> falcon (-> NAA) but anyone not named dolby can post themselves clear

I'd vote ilario before falcon

I'd vote NAA over joh here I think

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:30 am Oh hi TSP, don't ferget to call your votes itt

I haven't voted

I think falcon is probably rand

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:19 pm Please refrain from hammers for at least 24 hours, so I can make the most of my poisoning. I’m still recovering from Bengals rage.

Quickly:

Team theory 1: G-Man, Dolby, ilario

Team theory 2: G-Man, Dolby, falcon

If either is correct that’s a winning POE pool anyway. If not, it’s ip to the people named here to change the dynamic.

I think we kill G-Man and Dolby first and see where we're at. POE's probably good though.

Crazy

No suspects are voting

oh third post

I claimed fruit vendor in my second post for anyone who's interested in figuring out pr reading

Oh dolby also probably a wolf

I'm betting G is close to always a wolf here barring a spurt of life

so like ok can we clear either of the d1 zero posters

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:09 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:05 pm Just a quick question with regards to mischops and math. Have you been factoring in that nighkills are delayed? Does that matter at all in determining how many mistakes we’re allowed to make?
I have been treating the poisons as regular kills by the numbers. Let me consider that now though since you do represent an extra vote today.

11 vs. 4 to start

sig dead, Lime Coke dead, SPF dead

8 vs. 4 currently

If we miss today, plus Sloonei dead, we enter Night 3 at 6 vs. 4

Poison

Start Day 4 at 6 vs. 4 (traditionally Mimlo, but now Limlo because of the dying civilian).

I don't think we gain a day because of poison. I could be missing something.

we can sleep and go to 5v4

no protection on falcon here (since I just got burned on protecting falcon for no good reason) but I'd lean town there

not knowing SoA makes this worse tbh

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:12 pm I'm also trying to decide if Dizzy is scum who was planning on turboing anyone who cc'd him, but wasn't expecting it to be Sloonei, an already confirmed town.

the fact that it was sloonei and not say, marmot, makes this hard to see unfortunately

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:10 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm I think the latter is more likely for reasons previously mentioned
Did you happen to notice any moments in the game that pointed in that direction? If mafia had an inkling then perhaps that can be isolated to a timeline.
In what would normally spew me town but which here is is irrelevant, I haven’t been paying enough attention to say
Any thoughts on NAA's fruit vendor claim/rescind?

I don't find it suspicious. I wish to be cautious before handing out town stickers at this stage.

It was towny and good, could have been wolfy but who cares. You want to try to force wolves into making a CC that they don’t have to make

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm I think the latter is more likely for reasons previously mentioned
Did you happen to notice any moments in the game that pointed in that direction? If mafia had an inkling then perhaps that can be isolated to a timeline.

In what would normally spew me town but which here is is irrelevant, I haven’t been paying enough attention to say

Those reasons being wolves have an incentive to keep tinfoils alive

I think the latter is more likely for reasons previously mentioned

I don’t think those things are mutually exclusive

Yeah it’s all mildly frustrating

I think that was obvious

Ok hardclaim fruit vendor stop worrying about me

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:56 pm We should probably put the word "obvious" in the bin.

I’d personally prefer the watcher to not be dying

Sloonei is this a lock lock no rescind claim don’t respond to this if not

For multiple reasons

Sloonei claiming was obviously suboptimal

TBH Sloonei apparently you made it too obvious

Update: it’s still wolfy, because if the CC is one of the tracked people you can kill them

The double hit claim puts the game in a tough position: you can’t chop both and still chop dizzy if the claim’s false. That said, I considered it a bit and changed my mind: you target both because if either’s a wolf they carried the kill

Nah Dizzy doing it is very towny

Best time to fake claim is when you’re going to die

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:51 pm I am poisoned. I am confirmed town about to die. Why would I lie about being the watcher here?

Cause you’re you

Technically dizzy doing that is very wolfy

I’ll pretend to accept it as true

I think it’s most likely that Sloonei is doing a Sloonei but

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:38 pm I’m the watcher. Game is now mountainous.

Watched Dizzy N1. No one targeted him.

Was on TSP last night.

Lol

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:31 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:30 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:27 pm I mean, fruit vendor never targets spf, so that's kind of out of the question for me
curious why you think this
Because fruit vendor should target someone who basically never is killed. Like one of the (almost) no posters.

this is obviously incorrect but we'll save it for a theory discussion in post

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:31 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:30 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:27 pm I mean, fruit vendor never targets spf, so that's kind of out of the question for me
curious why you think this

Someone said yesterday that the fruit vendor should target suspects only, and I agree with that.

I didn't ask you

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:30 pm Assuming Dizzy is the real watcher, it seems we're left at a point where we must yeet Johanna or G-Man today.

In that same word, knowing Tony's alignment would be really useful to help us discover how mafia may have operated Day 2. If Tony is town, mafia might've believed his claim and played somewhat carefully around Jo/G-Man. If Tony's mafia, then mafia most certainly operated under the impression that they weren't caught.

don't worry about my alignment it's obviously town

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