The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:31 pm I don't think they are unlikely to swap with each other by proxy. If I was mafia my card is one that would make sense to give to a mafia teammate in some contexts for instance.

Hm.

listo claimed TH gave him a neg util card. I suppose TH could have given him a card that makes sense to give to a mafia teammate and then told him to pretend it was neg util, that way when TH flips with listo's card listo gets soft cleared.

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:32 pm So... What I'm understanding Alison is I should not swap that horrid card tonight?

If TH flips with your flavor card, you are soft cleared because I do not think scum TH would swap a card with his partner.

If TH flips with your flavor card feel free to get rid of your "horrid card" by sending it to someone else.

If TH does not flip with your flavor card then we will likely exe you to figure out what is going on with the flavor card swaps. If you are town in that scenario, do not swap your horrid card so we can better track who swapped cards (especially negative utility cards) with whom.

The only assumption I made wrt flavor cards in my solve is that mafia are unlikely to swap flavor cards with each other. That is why I said to put listo at the back of the POE if TH flips with their card. Otherwise the AI-ness or lack thereof of flavor cards shouldn't impact anything.

I said I wouldn't give a solve today but I think we have auto regardless so I'll just give it.

Here is the flowchart.

If TH flips with listo's card: Exe c4 and nanook (don't particularly care about order), then Scotty, then listo.

If TH does not flip with listo's card: Exe listo to find out what the fuck is going on, exe c4 and nanook (don't particularly care about order), then Scotty. Adjust POE based on whose flavor card listo flips with if his exe does not end the game.

I am pretty confident this is a gamewinning solve unless someone has a reason to doubt one of my clears.

I think Scotty's posting today has been townie. I would put him at the end of the 4 person POE. listo is townier than him if TH flips with listo's card.

c4 and nanook should be taken out first. If TH doesn't flip with listo's card we probably flip listo first to resolve that mess.

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:20 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:18 pm

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:17 pm Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

Soup can target cards?

I hope not

Really got to go rn

Agree that Scotty looks good if TH flips with his flavorcard

I doubt it since then they could all forcibly swap flavor cards with townies and soupkill them all.

If listo flips with TH's card, just put him at the end of the POE of 4 and whack the other 3 first.

We have 2-3 wolves (most likely 3 given HK's testimony about Michelle's behavior in DVC and Ender associations) dead. With TH flipping wolf and a speculative team of 5 wolves that means that we have 3-4 wolves dead, aka 1-2 wolves alive. ​5 players (Dolby, LC, Mac, HK, myself) are mech cleared if you trust my analysis that the soup is most likely real.

I am assuming wolves shoot into one of the 5 tonight.

That will leave us 8 players alive with 4 clears. Of the 4 people who are not cleared (Scotty, listo, nanook, c4), 1-2 of them are a wolf. Unless wolves have extra KP they have been hiding up their sleeve (which would make no sense given several loud cleared town are still alive), we should have auto just mowing down this list. The only way this doesn't work is if the soup is fake but I don't think it is.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:15 pm Is there any threat to us outing all our card abilities exactly?

I don't think so, but they all seem to be 10% chances including mine so it seems to be taking an unnecessary risk for something we can't base a mech plan around anyway. Mine actually has a small chance of catching a careless wolf so outing it would be bad.

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:13 pm

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:08 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:05 pm Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

All I know is whoever stole my card gave me a terrible flavor card and I want rid of it now.

Who's flavor card do you have that is terrible?

TH.

So TH is scum and force swapped a shitty flavor card with you.

If your flavor card flips upon TH's death we will know that is what happened and you will be cleared.

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:08 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:05 pm Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

All I know is whoever stole my card gave me a terrible flavor card and I want rid of it now.

Who's flavor card do you have that is terrible?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:07 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:07 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:05 pm Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

How so?

Look at Garden Gnome's card.

Well the rules for flavor card swapping are as follows:

Every player can on odd nights, attempt to swap the flavor card in their possession with another player's. This decision does not have to be consensual and once submitted, the swap will go through. Every player has ONE chance to swap at night and once the swap is submitted to the host, it cannot be changed.

We are going into night 5. Is there any reason we cannot have the clears force-swap with the POE and turbo whoever has a scummy looking card?

As far as I can tell I still have my own flavor card.

The thing about the soup being fake theory is that it requires mafia to actually have a pretty good attempt at working out what my role is, read into LC's doctor soft, and then use those things to try to make their fake soup more convincing rather than, you know, actually souping us and getting free KP. According to Mac the Ascetic guess on him was correct and Dolby's guess was correct as well. Mafia had a bunch of information to genuinely soup on and with Ender being run up that day it makes more sense for them to try to end the game than go for a bluff play.

If the soup was fake, where is the real soup? Why is Dolby not dead after blasting Ender in the face with a claimed ability? Why is Mac not dead?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:05 pm Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

How so?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:49 pm @Alison do you have a gut read or anything on Listo?

My gut says he's town.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:18 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:56 am

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:14 am TH/Creature/Osi is where I am right now for scum.

Maybe Scotty replaces one of them.

GG could theoretically be in there but it'd have to be on a team without Creature. I honestly don't see her as scum rn.

I mean 2/3 wolves in his last post is pretty mindfucky. There’s no way creature is also wolf, right? I really want to eliminate Creature/c4 from the cutting board just based on this post alone

I recently played a game where I was miscleared for a post almost exactly like this
But also yeah rule of three mhm yeah no way he names his whole team there no way yeah mhm

I wouldn't make a read like this on someone who was almost certainly in anti spew. The writing on the wall wrt Ender was there for quite a while and he had plenty of time to prepare.

Then the POE of listo/c4/nanook should work. If that doesn't end the game, I'd probably go LC next.

I think I'm off my Mac paranoia, he was time looped, soupkilled and worked to bury Ender D1. LC has comparatively scumsided with pushes a lot more and only has the soupkill to his name. I don't think the soupkill is fake though and I think the 3 person POE just ends the game.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:53 am I know the day is all but determined, but mac is right- what next? @Alison I know you’re checked out, but you mentioned having a last slot read that you’re saving for some reason. Let’s bring Christmas in early and open that bow-covered read: why wait?

The mafia have a nightkill and we aren't exeing anyone other than TH today

I don't either.

Sorry if I spoiled Rebellion but it was a shit movie anyway so just pretend it never happened.

I think I've hit my post limit now so I'm going to chill for a bit. I'm multitabling fairly hard anyways.

I do need to hit 10 posts to avoid getting vanillaized so I'm just going to post some random anime stuff for a bit.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:27 pm solving other wolves?

I have a solve and it's unlikely to change without any new information. Nobody really seems to be posting much and there's no effective way to apply pressure when the exe is effectively already decided so it's hard to get motivation tbh.

I'm probably just going to check out of the rest of today ping me if you need me bye.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:29 pm wasn't there a wolf pushing creature? If so that kinda spews that slot (c4 now) town doesn't it?

According to Mac the push was likely a bus and they did nothing with it. He raised a point that Ender looked to be trying to tie Creature red flip to Scotty, suggesting he has TMI on Creature red, which I thought was good.

Flea the Magician wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:27 pm My solve sits at within TH, Mac and 1 other rn. Probably Nanook because ye gods the passivity here is unreal so I need to read them.

It's hard to imagine Mac intentionally postblocking himself for 2 day phases on end just to earn some towncred given the way he likes to play as scum. I have been burned by that kind of read before (Stardew Valley Mafia) though.

Regardless if Mac is mafia he is townsiding mafia based on his vote record and he will have to continue townsiding in order not to get exposed. In that world it is easier to let him expose his teammates for us and screw himself afterwards by being trapped solo. If he is town we should obviously allow him to give his solve. Either way I am inclined to give Mac a pass for now and search for candidates past TH. I am considering his point about Creature being a bus.

Wasn't Scotty in your POE? You voted a series of names after Martin to indicate who you suspected: c4, listo, Scotty, TH. What happened to your Scotty/listo suspicions?

The point about trying to tie Creature and Scotty is actually kinda good.

I thought c4's entrance was kinda townie though.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pm I honestly find Mac's behavior this night phase offputting, I would've thought he would come back into the game with slam dunk reads and just pop off on the wolf team but instead he has advocated a massclaim which I think is bad, attacked someone who both looks excellent off wagonomics and is IC'ed, and claimed to have prior suspicion on me for surviving when I've been NK-immunized every night.

I literally did you wet fart

What do you make of the Ender push on Creature when he was in danger? Do you think it was just a last minute bus after being outed? I saw it as an actual attempt to survive since Creature looked like he would go over for a bit and there was a sudden surge of momentum against him when Ender made that push.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:02 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pm Also Mac you don't know what you're talking about with the gender identity stuff and you're clearly hurting someone please stop.

They don't seem hurt to me.

Don't talk to me like this. You're literally the primary exponent of mafia being emotion free. Hypocrite free zone please Alison

Just so you know I have been intentionally called dude as a way of misgendering me in the past. I believe in mafia being emotion free but it's obvious that Flea feels as though fae are being misgendered by your calling faer dude so just stop doing that and get back to game related matters.

Also Mac you don't know what you're talking about with the gender identity stuff and you're clearly hurting someone please stop.

I honestly find Mac's behavior this night phase offputting, I would've thought he would come back into the game with slam dunk reads and just pop off on the wolf team but instead he has advocated a massclaim which I think is bad, attacked someone who both looks excellent off wagonomics and is IC'ed, and claimed to have prior suspicion on me for surviving when I've been NK-immunized every night.

Also we are not massclaiming because the possibility of a second soup is one of the few ways we lose this game and I am not sure why Mac is so eager to fall into that trap, especially since wolves could easily have fakeclaims or ways to twist their roles into being townie.

Flea is also town off the EOD vote movement disregarding the IC thing anyway

I don't actually think listo's push on nanook is that unreasonable. If they townread everyone else except for the consensus POE slots (TH/Martin) and also have a strong gut feeling on nook being a wolf then them pushing there isn't really out of the ordinary. If listo is a wolf he's probably using his tunnel on nook to try to avoid having to engage with the rest of the game but he actually seemed kinda annoyed people weren't engaging with him rather than happily coasting under the radar.

listo95 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:29 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:28 pm Ender started a wagon on creature that was immediately followed by listo, and then 2 others to push it to ender 3, creature 4. That was blatantly coordinated to look like a towny push on a new train. Your reasoning was shit, and I still want you dead

Then shoot me. Prove yourself wrong. Or shoot Nanook and prove me town.

If nanook were to be mod-confirmed town right now, Flea-style, what would your solve be like?

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 00#p827632

^ mansnicks (V), hollowkatt (V) and Ender (W) wagons at 4/4/4. From there, in order...

- Ender votes mansnicks. Self pres, duh.

- Flea votes Ender in order to sheep me. VERY good look for faer, putting a vote on a mafia member at a crucial moment + saying it's a sheep to minimize credit for faerself.

- Michelle votes mansnicks. This is indicative that Michelle is probably actually wolf and voted with her scum buddy to stop Flea from putting Ender over. This mansnicks vote involves an awkward backpedal on her Ender read ("Something on last Ender posts makes me to want him alive at this Eod"), which means Michelle felt fear at Flea's vote.

- Creature votes mansnicks. Bad vote, but later events made Creature most likely townie so I'm willing to say this was just a wrong read.

At this point the wagons are mansnicks 7, Ender 4 if I'm counting correctly. After Creature's vote mafia probably regained some confidence that mansnicks would go over and not Ender. That means they are less likely to baldly try to save Ender and more likely to make good-looking votes that will reflect well on them later on.

- LC drops in at the last second with a vote on mansnicks. Probably a townie vote, since at this point mansnicks had a huge lead and a scum LC could easily just not have shown up, or voted HK or even Ender to try to get some towncred later rather than be tied to the mansnicks exe.

- Creature votes a vanity wagon, Scotty. Weird vote, and I don't know what he was trying to do there. Probably just petulant that his desired exe did not go over and voted there to make a point, which is kinda townie.

- Then HK and mansnicks have a long argument and mansnicks flips.

So based on the EOD vote movement analysis...

1) Michelle is probably just scum.
2) Flea is spewed town.
3) Lime Coke gets small town points.

Flea being one of the D1 votes on Ender (a day where he was actually in danger of dying before the last minute mansnicks push) is a good look for faer and makes the TH push on them to save Martin even worse.

Oh yeah and c4 had a townie entrance but I'm pretty sure Creatureslot is already spewed V as the misexe Ender was trying to push to save himself so that isn't really surprising.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:18 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:16 pm I woke up with a splitting headache this morning and the game has kinda stalled so I don't have much to say. I am strongly reading TH and Martin as partners now that TH is blatantly chainsaw defending him. I kinda just want the day to end so we can see Martin's flip.

I can try and speed it up by shooting him.

I might get Seanzie’d or I might not. What we think?

I don't really trust the guns in this game so I wouldn't shoot if I was you.

If the soup is real my best guess for LoMo's death is some kind of KP that isn't tied to the factional NK, like a conditional kill or something along those lines. We know that Michelle had something similar (the killing framer role, which kills anyone that visits the person they framed and isn't an investigative), so there could be more conditional KP the mafia has.

Flea promised to tryhard but I'm not really seeing it. Fae've still been overall townie on play and if Martin flips red I'm pretty sure fae're cleared because in that world TH is pushing them as the next most viable misexe to try to save Martin. So I'm just going to let the Martin flip resolve faer for me.

I woke up with a splitting headache this morning and the game has kinda stalled so I don't have much to say. I am strongly reading TH and Martin as partners now that TH is blatantly chainsaw defending him. I kinda just want the day to end so we can see Martin's flip.