The Syndicate

The way we lose the game is probably nook exe -> tutuu NK and we decide to vote out Thunal over SPF

and a tutuu exe -> nook NK would end up in the same f3

The entire dead chat collectively locked tutuu town for the copypasta stuff about having servants feed her or whatever

You can't NK Thunal if nook gets exed, because nutella and tutuu are both ICs at that point.

https://discord.gg/ftGSys

Discord server if you want to see the F3 deliberations and/or vanity search. I think giving dead townies the gun in endgame makes the setup townsided - I think I commented something similar during pregame.

On Day 5 my POE was Thunal -> SPF -> Nanook, tutuu townclearing herself that day was really good.

There was consensus amongst everyone that SPF was the shot there but there was some concern that nutella would go rogue given her suspicions on nanook yesterday, thankfully that didn't happen!

Alright, I'm going to bed. Flash wagons are bad, don't do them. You know I hate them regardless of my alignment.

See you all in the quicktopic.

Why Nook and Martin over tutuu? Like Nook is correct that he did make a good-looking vote and AFAIK tutuu has not done anything other than have good tone.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:08 pm Idk I’m pretty confident in my POE. We’ll see

oh no! nanook is being complacent!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:00 pm I mean that you are the person who seems least willing to consider alternatives at this very moment. It’s great that you’ve put in work previously. But now it’s time for us all to make a decision and you’re just sitting there.

What is the single most compelling piece of evidence against me, Alison?

What do you mean consider alternatives?

I don't have an alternative vote here. Like even if I didn't scumread you. What am I going to do, ask everyone to vote me instead of you? Try to start a flash wagon against someone else? I'm confused why you think I would seriously consider doing those things.

I don't think there's one slam dunk compelling piece of evidence against you, like a scumslip or something. If you're expecting me to give you some undeniable or irrefutable proof that you're mafia, you're not going to be satisfied. I'm voting you because I scumread your early game play, Jay had issues getting there on you being town, the nightkills look like they were made to frame me (which points towards you), and if you are town then the team is mostly likely something like nanook/tutuu or maybe Martin/[nanook/tutuu] in the world where my read on Martin is wrong. And those teams are, on a base probability, unlikely enough that I think the chance you are mafia is just much higher than that. All of those pieces of evidence put together make me believe that you are the best vote for today.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:58 pm [VOTE: sloonei] aubergine

Pretty much just a sheep of jay, I can’t read sloonei for shit

eh?

Jay put Sloonei as town GTH, shouldn't you be voting me if you're sheeping Jay?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:51 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:50 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:49 pm I am town. No one is asking for you to get mad. It is wrong to assume I will flip wolf. It js not wrong to continue to solve the game.

I am solving the game though, I listed out who's the most likely to be the scumteam in the event you and I both flip town and explained the reasons why.

Of everyone here right now, you seem the most complacent.

What exactly do you mean by complacent? Do you mean:

...that I am the person who is most confident that I am right? I have good reasons to believe I am right; I showed my work, my POE analysis, my read on you all the way. If I am good reasons to believe I am right, I am going to be confident that I will be right. I am not going to downplay the confidence I have in my beliefs in order to avoid feeling ashamed in the event I am wrong. That would be misrepresenting my read of the game in order to achieve personal emotional fulfilment, which is not optimal play.

...that I am the person who is doing the least to cover the possibility that I am wrong? I've done my best to show you what I think you should do in the 3v2 if I am wrong. Because if I am wrong here, then the events of the next day will be fairly straightforward; town can't afford not to exe me, and frankly I would prefer they did so I don't get dragged to F5 as the designated game-losing misexe. So in the event that I am in fact wrong, I've already done work to show how I believe town should act in that scenario, which I believe counts as covering that possibility.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:49 pm I am town. No one is asking for you to get mad. It is wrong to assume I will flip wolf. It js not wrong to continue to solve the game.

I am solving the game though, I listed out who's the most likely to be the scumteam in the event you and I both flip town and explained the reasons why.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:43 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:38 pm fwiw it may just be alison’s personality to not freak out or doubt herself much. she is very logic oriented and perhaps doesn’t concern herself with “what if’s” because they don’t logically make sense to her to consider

this is a plausible explanation for her behavior that isn’t “alison is a wolf”

I mean I try to take the play with the highest % chance of being correct every Day and I don't worry too much about the possibility that it's wrong. Like imagine I'm the confirmed town in an F3 where one player has a 51% chance of being scum and the other has a 49% chance of being scum. Assuming that I'm in a situation where no new evidence will come out to change these numbers (as we're in right now), do you think I should be paranoid or worried or freak out because I have a 49% chance of losing? Like even if I do get paranoid, what am I going to do, vote the other person and have a 51% chance of losing? You just take the highest value play and see how it shakes out. No point getting upset or second guessing yourself over a decision that you realistically aren't going to change.

Like this isn't being "complacent even though you only have a coinflip chance of winning", this is taking the best possible play and not beating yourself up over it.

And obviously I think Sloonei has a much higher than 51% chance of flipping scum.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:38 pm fwiw it may just be alison’s personality to not freak out or doubt herself much. she is very logic oriented and perhaps doesn’t concern herself with “what if’s” because they don’t logically make sense to her to consider

this is a plausible explanation for her behavior that isn’t “alison is a wolf”

I mean I try to take the play with the highest % chance of being correct every Day and I don't worry too much about the possibility that it's wrong. Like imagine I'm the confirmed town in an F3 where one player has a 51% chance of being scum and the other has a 49% chance of being scum. Assuming that I'm in a situation where no new evidence will come out to change these numbers (as we're in right now), do you think I should be paranoid or worried or freak out because I have a 49% chance of losing? Like even if I do get paranoid, what am I going to do, vote the other person and have a 51% chance of losing? You just take the highest value play and see how it shakes out. No point getting upset or second guessing yourself over a decision that you realistically aren't going to change.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:35 pm If you are town and the game follows the path you are assuming it will over this phase and the next, then we are at a 3vs2 lylo. Does that not concern you? You are acting like that is an ideal spot to be in or something.

That is only true if you are town which I am not convinced is the case. But also if that was really the case then there's nothing I can do about it so why would I get mad? Like even if you convince me that town always loses in the event you flip town, what am I going to do about it? Not flip you? That's just wrong. You don't have near enough chance of flipping town for that. I obviously can't stop the town from exeing me if you flip town either. The only thing I can do in that situation is to tell the town who I think is scum in that scenario to help them win the 3v2, which is what I just did.

So even in that worst case scenario there's no reason for me to act in a different way from the way I'm acting right now.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:24 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:19 pm Also not that Alison is framing it as "panic" and "self-doubt" once people start to town-read me. bleh.

I mean it's true. People are so afraid of the possibility of losing the game that they'd rather write about nutella being scum, or how mafia is going to destroy us with their prewritten vote post in F5, rather than like, just figuring out who has the highest possibility of flipping scum here and voting them.

If Sloonei does flip town, who do you think the scum team would be?

My guess is nanook/tutuu in that world. In that scenario I'd be exed next, which is fine and correct play, and then after that you'll have proven there's two deepwolves so you have to figure out who's the least towncleared. Which is nanook and tutuu (assuming my read on Martin is correct, which I believe it is right now). There's nothing indicating they aren't teammates. Obviously you probably don't want to sleepwalk exe in F5 and you'll have to do your own solving after I'm dead but like if you put a gun to my head and asked me who's the most likely scum team I'd say it's probably them.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:25 pm we're not talking about a sudden cfd or something. that's not ok the table. we're talking about what to do if we're wrong. you refuse to even consider it's possible.

Not only is this not true (I gave you an actual % number of how probable I believe I am to be wrong here), I have also given you my thoughts on what to do if we're wrong. What's the issue?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:19 pm Also not that Alison is framing it as "panic" and "self-doubt" once people start to town-read me. bleh.

I mean it's true. People are so afraid of the possibility of losing the game that they'd rather write about nutella being scum, or how mafia is going to destroy us with their prewritten vote post in F5, rather than like, just figuring out who has the highest possibility of flipping scum here and voting them.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:21 pm it's not about changing the outcome of today it's about being prepared for future days and allowing people to contribute to that preparation before they die

I mean if what you want from me is "Alison's theories about who the deepwolves are" I have already told you my thoughts on that and who I think have the most deepwolf equity. The way you people are handling EOD is extremely counter-productive. I've never believed in tinfoil reads and I've never believed in abruptly changing the vote target EOD when the outcome of the day looks set.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:15 pm alison how can you tell us we’re panicking for no reason and we can easily win in f5 when you don’t even know how it works? this is what i mean. if you are town, you are over confident

yeah. her lack of any degree of paranoia is concerning. like the rest of us are worried about the possibility of sloon flipping town and she's just...not. i hope that means she's just right, but it's unsettling atm

I mean I've said this like five thousand times but how does paranoia help here

Like let's say I go "oh shit what if Sloonei is town shit shit shit let's flash wagon tutuu"

Even disregarding my well-known meta for never engaging in flash wagons, do you think this kind of thing can actually be pushed through? And if it can't then why exactly should I be paranoid right now when to me the correct vote today and the outcome of the day seem predetermined and I have a very good reason to believe that both of them will likely lead to good outcomes?

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:13 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:11 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:09 pm i don’t know why you think that i should treat your read on martin like gospel when you’ve never played with him before, alison. and if you are town you should consider that people may not follow your reads when you die and stop being so complacent

Complacent about what exactly? Am I supposed to run around fearing some imaginary future that has a 5% chance of existing? You are seriously panicking for no reason and you need to calm down. "The end is near" rhetoric helps nobody regardless of anyone's alignment.

complacent about sloonei being mafia. i do mot believe the chance he’s town is only five percent

ok bye, seriously

Give me one single reason to believe that Sloonei has a high chance of flipping town, knowing that I am town.

Now give me one single reason to believe that town is definitely screwed in the event that Sloonei and I both flip town.

Now after you've given me a reason to believe those things, give me one single reason to believe that panicking and coming up with absurd tinfoil theories about nutella being scum is going to change the outcome of the day phase or vote in a way that alters the % that Sloonei gets exed as town or that town loses in the event both Sloonei and I flip town.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:05 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:04 pm Like everyone is running around like a headless chicken screaming about how the game is lost, tinfoiling, paranoia, incoming F5, I don't see it. There's still a very high chance Sloonei flips scum. Like why are we acting like he's already flipped town

Alternatively, why are you the only one sitting here not panicking, acting with complete assurance that your read on me is correct?

Give me one good reason for me to believe that things will go wrong. I've done my homework, I know you're the correct vote for today. If it's two deepwolves and we've all been owned then nothing I say or do in this day phase will change that so there's no reason to panic. If it's not two deepwolves then I don't see how you can flip town.

Furthermore, panicking and self-doubt doesn't catch deepwolves; neither does random tinfoil spewed out out of paranoia. What catches deepwolves is calmly clearing the POE, proving there's a deepwolf, and then trying to figure out who in that position is the most likely to be a deepwolf. How does any of the behavior I've seen in the past couple of pages help anyone?

[mention]Dyslexicon[/mention] how does an F5 situation play out?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:11 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:06 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:40 pm at least it wont be standard f5 where i can throw with my horrible reads. we will lose due to scum copy pasting their pre-written vote faster. and i get to feel less personally responsible and guilty

Can you like explain the mechanics of this to me? I don't understand why you seem to think that scum gets auto victory if they get into the Grasslands at FX

If we fail to put both scum in the grasslands, and there's one scum and one town in the treehouse, it comes down to who votes first. We just have to ensure we put both scum in the grassland *and* correctly vote for the one town in it.

I don't think that's how the game actually works unless Dizzy confirms it?

Like it doesn't seem realistic to me that the setup is designed to reward posting first in F5, that's just silly.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:09 pm i don’t know why you think that i should treat your read on martin like gospel when you’ve never played with him before, alison. and if you are town you should consider that people may not follow your reads when you die and stop being so complacent

Complacent about what exactly? Am I supposed to run around fearing some imaginary future that has a 5% chance of existing? You are seriously panicking for no reason and you need to calm down. "The end is near" rhetoric helps nobody regardless of anyone's alignment.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:05 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:02 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:23 pm i really don’t like how alison has no sense of urgency. “oh yea if sloonei is town you just eliminate me and have however many chances to find the deepwolves.” we will have ONE chance. and it will be one chance in a F5 scenario that, as tutuu pointed out, is extremely hard to win for town. but alison seems to not care that in the event of a sloonei town flip, her offering herself up as the next one will put us in a near unwinnable situation

i honestly think she’s just manipulating us to get sloonei killed and buy herself an extra day

I am extremely confused about why you believe that F5 with like 3 lock town is a scary or difficult situation. I also don't really think there's a high chance Sloonei would flip town so why would I have any sense of urgency?

if you are town, i think you’re overconfident

also we won’t have three lock town in f5

Ok Hally. Put yourself in my shoes. What exactly does Alison, knowing she is town, fear here? Like why exactly do you think town Alison here would fear Sloonei flipping town? I have every reason to believe Sloonei will flip scum, every reason to believe the vote on Sloonei is correct, and it's not like endgame is an autowin for mafia either, town can easily still get there and win in the endgame.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:40 pm at least it wont be standard f5 where i can throw with my horrible reads. we will lose due to scum copy pasting their pre-written vote faster. and i get to feel less personally responsible and guilty

Can you like explain the mechanics of this to me? I don't understand why you seem to think that scum gets auto victory if they get into the Grasslands at FX

Also how does it make sense to exe Martin in a situation where I have flipped green and you know my read on him was in good faith

Like everyone is running around like a headless chicken screaming about how the game is lost, tinfoiling, paranoia, incoming F5, I don't see it. There's still a very high chance Sloonei flips scum. Like why are we acting like he's already flipped town

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:23 pm i really don’t like how alison has no sense of urgency. “oh yea if sloonei is town you just eliminate me and have however many chances to find the deepwolves.” we will have ONE chance. and it will be one chance in a F5 scenario that, as tutuu pointed out, is extremely hard to win for town. but alison seems to not care that in the event of a sloonei town flip, her offering herself up as the next one will put us in a near unwinnable situation

i honestly think she’s just manipulating us to get sloonei killed and buy herself an extra day

I am extremely confused about why you believe that F5 with like 3 lock town is a scary or difficult situation. I also don't really think there's a high chance Sloonei would flip town so why would I have any sense of urgency?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:22 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:21 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:24 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:08 am tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

Am I lock scum, 100% confirmed, no doubt, slam dunk wolf to you, Alison?

It's more like 85% or 90% rather than 100% (leaving 15-10% chance of something really unexpected or me just completely misreading the game), but I'm 100% sure that you're the right exe for today. What's the purpose of this question?

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:24 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:08 am tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:50 pm but you already found sloonei as mafia if he’s mafia. you already linked him to lc too. why not shoot you, the person who already found him, over the person who might possibly find him? idk, i don’t want to beat this horse to death but i really think it’s strictly better for sloonei to shoot you, and maybe even n1 instead of n2

Here's a line of argument I think might make sense to you. You argue to me that nutella already caught Sloonei. nutella is widely believed to be a townie and already got one scum exed. From the point of view of Sloonei, isn't he stuck between a rock and a hard place? If he lets nutella live, nutella finds him and uses her clout to vote him. If he lets Jay live, Jay probably finds him (not exactly hard since Jay is good at reading Sloonei and there's like two people in the POE to choose from), and uses his clout to vote him.

If Sloonei's already going into this day with the idea that a widely townread player with clout is going to find him and push him, what's the best way he can slip away? Neither nutella nor Jay are particularly easy to talk down when they really think someone is scum. I suggest to you that the most viable way for Sloonei to wriggle out of an exe here is actually by making the townies who have him pinned down doubt themselves and step away from their read out of paranoia or uncertainty. In that respect, a WIFOM kill meant to frame me makes more sense than just shooting whoever scumreads him more.

NKA definitely has its place in mafia games but exeing someone who's less suspicious over someone who's more suspicious purely based off NKA doesn't make sense. The NK is controlled by the mafia; you don't want it to be the sole arbiter of who to exe, because it's not coming from people who are using it to achieve good outcomes for town. I wouldn't have boxed myself into a POE this small if I was scum. Heck, I'm openly offering to let you exe me without a single shred of resistance whatsoever if Sloonei flips town. Because at that point in the game my presence is -EV. I'd much rather die, flip green and leave you guys with strong legacy reads to help you hunt the deepwolf than be dragged to endgame as the designated game-losing misexe.

Sloonei has been scummy since Day 1. If you exe me, I am going to flip green and then you will have to exe Sloonei tomorrow anyway. Kill Sloonei first.

linki: That's not what I'm saying actually. I'm saying "NKA isn't reliable because the reasons scum make kills aren't the reasons you think they do sometimes". The town collectively buried itself in a hole in Space Invaders in part due to no-kill one night and it convinced itself that the only people who had a motive to do that were the people assigned to protect nutella.

No, I'm not going to stand here and pretend I know what Sloonei was thinking when he shot Jay and nova. I'm not Sloonei. I've posited a hypothesis about why Jay was shot, to silence him before he could get there about Sloonei being scum. No clue on nova. I'm just telling you what I know from my perspective, which is that it is incorrect to rely strongly on night-kill analysis to make your decisions over in-game actions. NKA has its place and it can be used as a tiebreaker or to try to track the mafia's patterns/philosophy in killing players, but don't use it as a substitute for actual hunting.

I've made actions that would box myself into a POE if I'm scum. I've offered to let you exe me without resistance if Sloonei flips town. If I'm scum I'm not doing that because I'm not gambling the game on my scum buddy winning a 6v1 in a playerlist this strong and a bunch of hard locked town. I'm going to hard push Thunal or someone else I think I can raise suspicion on, tutuu or something, and try to expand the POE at all costs and drag myself to endgame while murdering as many townies as possible. Not give it all up just to get a townie who was already destined to die sooner or later (Sloonei) exed before me.

Trust me on this. I am town. I saw Sloonei vent. Vote him out, and if it's not him you can vote me.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:54 pm i honestly think we should eliminate alison today over sloonei

nova and jay both sussed alison and were more pro-sloonei than most others (and yes, i know jay had sloonei in his poe but he still defended sloonei a fair bit and resisted what he thought was undue pressure on him). if nova and jay were here they would be pushing alison over sloonei. they aren’t here because mafia didn’t want them here, and we should keep that in mind

another reason i don’t think mafia!sloonei would kill jay because there was quite a bit of speculation about a sloonei/jay w/w world. if sloonei is mafia he is killing someone that 1) would have helped him survive this day by pushing alison and 2) could have been eliminated after a scum!sloonei flip because he would have looked bad. sloonei would be shooting himself in the foot making that kill

meanwhile, nutella, who should have been the most lock cleared person out of anyone N2 pending an lc scum flip, is still alive over jay. nut has been the most anti-sloonei person from the start and pro-alison. mafia left her alive for a reason, and i think it’s because they want her to keep tunneling sloonei

sloonei doesn’t make these kills. they’re incredibly suboptimal for him and it doesn’t make sense when he could just kill nut instead

let’s trust in our dead teammates and kill alison

Don't let the mafia manipulate you into voting me through NKs. You know as well as I do that scum teams work in strange ways and make strange night kills. Look at my POE analysis about deepwolves and why Sloonei is always scum here. Also nova didn't really have the ability to get people exed despite being widely townread so I think your analysis about me killing nova because he sussed me is off.

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:35 pm maybe kill alison if sloonei is town

FMPOV (knowing I'm town) there has to be two deepwolves embedded in the towncore if Sloonei is town. I don't mind if you all want to clear the last person in the POE after but it's by no means curtains in that scenario that happens. You'll just have to figure out which two wolves would allow their scum buddy to die when I was a viable misexe on D2.

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:34 pm now im paranoid jay was killed so sloonei would be misyeeted lol fuck

but

u guys are way more invested in the game

im glad i didnt defend lc even tho i townread him

so like i shouldnt get in the way

Meh. You can just as easily argue that Jay was killed while his read status on Sloonei was still uncertain, before he could get there on Sloonei being scum and soul read him as mafia.

I vote for giving nutella the gun, yeah. Like she nailed LC and has been independently very townie so.

Also Martin has been obvtown so if anyone still suspects Martin I want to hear why. I don't care what interactions he's had with LC, as far as I'm concerned he's spewed himself town by his behavior these past few pages.

The avatar-change thing by tutuu is not a big deal and no reasonable person is going to actually change their view on the game based on it. I don't really care about it and I don't think it has any impact whatsoever on game integrity. If tutuu hadn't changed her avatar she'd just have posted a crying anime girl and pointed to that instead.

I'm ready to vote.

[VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine
[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Nothing I've seen since my POE analysis has convinced me that it is untrue. I challenge anyone who disagrees that Sloonei is the correct vote for today to either show how Sloonei town is possible without two deepwolves, or how two deepwolves are likely given the gamestate.

Also note: if I was scum here and pincered in a POE with Sloonei, I would be trying to widen the POE by reopening my case on Thunal, not calling for a Sloonei exe when scum!Alison has virtually no chance of winning if her scum buddy gets exed today. That is the path to victory if I am scum with Sloonei here, and I have chosen to walk away from it, because I am town and I am willing to let myself get exed in a tight POE if I believe that POE is game winning.

The POE is small enough that for Sloonei not to be scum would mean that there are two deepwolves. I think that's really hard for mafia to have in general, and I think if they did have two deepwolves they would have enough clout to convince everyone not to vote LC. Therefore there's only one deepwolf as most. Therefore Sloonei is scum.

If we accept this, I think the people with the highest deepwolf equity are nanook or tutuu. Both had strong D1s and D2s and then are doing less D3 after a scum exe. I don't think nanook has posted at all and tutuu has gone all-in on the "I am a sheep" thing. I still townread them individually and think this behavior is very well within their respective town ranges, but it's where I'd look first for a deepwolf.

It's hard to see Thunal being buddied with both Sloonei and LC because there is associative evidence against Thunal/LC and against Thunal/Sloonei at this point. So unless some real shenanigans were involved I probably have to lay down my suspicions of Thunal as well.

Hally and SPF are both individually really town and both (iirc) have taken attempts to break up stuff like Thunal/Alison thunderdome that was totally unnecessary to do as scum, when they could have let it ride and allowed town to self destruct. Also, they townread each other hard, and the team being exactly Hally/SPF is extremely unlikely for a lot of reasons, so I'm fairly sure that mutual townread/mindmeld is in good faith. nutella nailed LC to a wall. I have my soulread on Martin. So it's just Sloonei and (nook/tutuu) probably.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:31 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:27 am something something

- alison sees sloonei getting heat, jumps in saying sloonei is “making stuff up,” which is overly harsh because she Knows sloonei is doing that (alison did a similar thing with mac D1 of space invaders)
- sloonei resists suspecting alison back for a bit, instead saying that my push on him is the one that most rubs him wrong. he even kinda pushes back on jay having alison in his poe
- meanwhile, jay calls out alison for her overly harsh treatment of sloonei and quickly makes alison his Top Suspect
- sloonei sees that and knows jay expects him to agree with him if they’re both town, so he decides that he should bus alison back to curry favor with jay. he knows he doesn’t have a top notch scum performance in him and that he won’t be able to shake the pressure he’s getting, so he thinks bussing alison is the only way to get cred and/or set alison up to go deep if he goes over
- alison meanwhile has moved on to trying to push Not Sloonei (thun)
- they both make it known repeatedly that they’re each other’s top suspects but try to avoid getting each other over for as long as they can

is this a terrible theory? perhaps. will i post in anyway? yes, yes i will

alison pushing the angle of: "im going to thunderdome thunal today no matter what" does make sense if viewed through the framework of alison trying to find a way to avoid having to hardpush on sloonei. i do like that alison is re-considering her read on thunal, but it's notable that her attention has mostly been outside of sloonei in spite of him being one of her top scumreads. the jay kill also makes me feel a little nervous about alison even though i know speculating on night kills is silly/meaningless

it still feels too easy, though? like i honestly have been getting the impression that i'm getting owned by someone, and i really doubt that im 2/2 on d3

If that was my angle I would be playing up the tunnelled townie line and would use it as an excuse to stick to the thunderdome rather than moving away after Hally posted in the quicktopic arguing that I shouldn't. I don't actually think my attention has been mostly outside of Sloonei given that JJJ actually took issue with my suspicion on Sloonei and had an interaction with me where he tried to shoot down my Sloonei suspicions.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

could you break down your thought process on martin for me? what made you go from townreading him to being suspicious of him to townreading him again? do his interactions with long con play a factor into ur read at all?

#1528 was my town case on Martin. Then he had a bad entrance today. #1825 sums up my issues with that entrance. Then I questioned him further and his tone + thought process was just so easy to vibe with that I dismissed my concerns. One of my concerns ("if I am town...") was alleviated by the fact that it's a common turn of phrase used by actual townies in other games.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:52 pm One takeaway I have from reading some of Martin's later posts from his scum game is that I revoke the "effort/content generating" reason to townread him. He was able to give plenty of content and long posts in his scum game. His tone does feel somewhat different though, a bit less honest and more detached.

You should never volume clear players with Martin's playstyle. But Martin has been super townie outside of that one interaction and I don't think someone of his playstyle and personality would find it easy (or even possible, maybe) to fake a tone this good on less than 10 mafia games. He's town.

I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.