Grasslands [Game Thread]

[Hally]

i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town

how do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?

idk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about it

okay valid, i honestly still want sloonei the most just factoring in the interaction analysis/how the game looks holistically to me rn - i have a harder time seeing a slooneitown world than i do seeing an alisontown world. i do understand your argument, though. the jagged kill gives me pause, and if sloonei is scum i dont understand the angle of killing one of his most passionate defenders

that’s because there isn’t one

(okay, okay, i’ve made my point. i’ll stop. but like, really though. mafia wants us to eliminate sloonei pretty sure.)

[staypositivefriend]

i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town

how do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?

idk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about it

okay valid, i honestly still want sloonei the most just factoring in the interaction analysis/how the game looks holistically to me rn - i have a harder time seeing a slooneitown world than i do seeing an alisontown world. i do understand your argument, though. the jagged kill gives me pause, and if sloonei is scum i dont understand the angle of killing one of his most passionate defenders

that’s because there isn’t one

(okay, okay, i’ve made my point. i’ll stop. but like, really though. mafia wants us to eliminate sloonei pretty sure.)

mm well, who do u think the maf is that's pushing for us to eliminate sloonei? alison and?

[Hally]

i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town

how do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?

idk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about it

okay valid, i honestly still want sloonei the most just factoring in the interaction analysis/how the game looks holistically to me rn - i have a harder time seeing a slooneitown world than i do seeing an alisontown world. i do understand your argument, though. the jagged kill gives me pause, and if sloonei is scum i dont understand the angle of killing one of his most passionate defenders

that’s because there isn’t one

(okay, okay, i’ve made my point. i’ll stop. but like, really though. mafia wants us to eliminate sloonei pretty sure.)

mm well, who do u think the maf is that's pushing for us to eliminate sloonei? alison and?

yea, probably alison. also, mafia doesn’t necessarily have to push for it. they can just let it happen since enough villagers also suspect sloonei

[Sloonei]

phantom vote: alison

[Sloonei]

phantom vote: alison

but noting that I also have not ISO'd martin yet.

[staypositivefriend]

i will feel extremely dumb if im wrong about this and to be clear, im not saying to lock sloonei town and throw away the key. but i do think that it’s something we can trust in at least for today. it feels like the sort of self evident thing that we will kick ourselves for not getting if sloonei is eliminated this day and flips town

how do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?

idk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about it

okay valid, i honestly still want sloonei the most just factoring in the interaction analysis/how the game looks holistically to me rn - i have a harder time seeing a slooneitown world than i do seeing an alisontown world. i do understand your argument, though. the jagged kill gives me pause, and if sloonei is scum i dont understand the angle of killing one of his most passionate defenders

that’s because there isn’t one

(okay, okay, i’ve made my point. i’ll stop. but like, really though. mafia wants us to eliminate sloonei pretty sure.)

mm well, who do u think the maf is that's pushing for us to eliminate sloonei? alison and?

yea, probably alison. also, mafia doesn’t necessarily have to push for it. they can just let it happen since enough villagers also suspect sloonei

sorry i worded that badly - who do u think is most likely to be partnered with alison if we live in an alisonscum world?

[Hally]

how do u feel about alison's play today in general? has it made u more suspicious of her?

idk i’ve only just barely skimmed what was said since last night. i just had this Thought and wanted to shout about it

okay valid, i honestly still want sloonei the most just factoring in the interaction analysis/how the game looks holistically to me rn - i have a harder time seeing a slooneitown world than i do seeing an alisontown world. i do understand your argument, though. the jagged kill gives me pause, and if sloonei is scum i dont understand the angle of killing one of his most passionate defenders

that’s because there isn’t one

(okay, okay, i’ve made my point. i’ll stop. but like, really though. mafia wants us to eliminate sloonei pretty sure.)

mm well, who do u think the maf is that's pushing for us to eliminate sloonei? alison and?

yea, probably alison. also, mafia doesn’t necessarily have to push for it. they can just let it happen since enough villagers also suspect sloonei

sorry i worded that badly - who do u think is most likely to be partnered with alison if we live in an alisonscum world?

uhhhh. hrm. i... don’t really know?

probably not actually sloonei even though i had that whole pepe silvia moment last night where i thought they were teamed. maybe nook? maybe tutuu? kinda doubt it’d be martin

i don’t really know who would be sloonei’s teammate either though. probably would be one of the same three people (nook/tutuu/martin) because i don’t think you, nut and thun are mafia here ~ever

[Alison]

now im paranoid jay was killed so sloonei would be misyeeted lol fuck

but

u guys are way more invested in the game

im glad i didnt defend lc even tho i townread him

so like i shouldnt get in the way

Meh. You can just as easily argue that Jay was killed while his read status on Sloonei was still uncertain, before he could get there on Sloonei being scum and soul read him as mafia.

[Alison]

maybe kill alison if sloonei is town

FMPOV (knowing I'm town) there has to be two deepwolves embedded in the towncore if Sloonei is town. I don't mind if you all want to clear the last person in the POE after but it's by no means curtains in that scenario that happens. You'll just have to figure out which two wolves would allow their scum buddy to die when I was a viable misexe on D2.

[Hally]

it could be lc/alison/nook and nook bussed lc because it was better to lose lc than alison lololol

[nutella]

it could be lc/alison/nook and nook bussed lc because it was better to lose lc than alison lololol

hmmmmmmmmm

[Hally]

now im paranoid jay was killed so sloonei would be misyeeted lol fuck

but

u guys are way more invested in the game

im glad i didnt defend lc even tho i townread him

so like i shouldnt get in the way

Meh. You can just as easily argue that Jay was killed while his read status on Sloonei was still uncertain, before he could get there on Sloonei being scum and soul read him as mafia.

i feel like two game days was sufficient enough time for jay to soul read sloonei mafia if that was going to happen

[nutella]

what if it was the n1 treehouse powerwolf duo nook/tutuu all along lmao

[Alison]

i honestly think we should eliminate alison today over sloonei

nova and jay both sussed alison and were more pro-sloonei than most others (and yes, i know jay had sloonei in his poe but he still defended sloonei a fair bit and resisted what he thought was undue pressure on him). if nova and jay were here they would be pushing alison over sloonei. they aren’t here because mafia didn’t want them here, and we should keep that in mind

another reason i don’t think mafia!sloonei would kill jay because there was quite a bit of speculation about a sloonei/jay w/w world. if sloonei is mafia he is killing someone that 1) would have helped him survive this day by pushing alison and 2) could have been eliminated after a scum!sloonei flip because he would have looked bad. sloonei would be shooting himself in the foot making that kill

meanwhile, nutella, who should have been the most lock cleared person out of anyone N2 pending an lc scum flip, is still alive over jay. nut has been the most anti-sloonei person from the start and pro-alison. mafia left her alive for a reason, and i think it’s because they want her to keep tunneling sloonei

sloonei doesn’t make these kills. they’re incredibly suboptimal for him and it doesn’t make sense when he could just kill nut instead

let’s trust in our dead teammates and kill alison

Don't let the mafia manipulate you into voting me through NKs. You know as well as I do that scum teams work in strange ways and make strange night kills. Look at my POE analysis about deepwolves and why Sloonei is always scum here. Also nova didn't really have the ability to get people exed despite being widely townread so I think your analysis about me killing nova because he sussed me is off.

[nutella]

now im paranoid jay was killed so sloonei would be misyeeted lol fuck

but

u guys are way more invested in the game

im glad i didnt defend lc even tho i townread him

so like i shouldnt get in the way

Meh. You can just as easily argue that Jay was killed while his read status on Sloonei was still uncertain, before he could get there on Sloonei being scum and soul read him as mafia.

i feel like two game days was sufficient enough time for jay to soul read sloonei mafia if that was going to happen

eh it could change after the first red flip though; plus killing jay after the first red flip is always smart because he always does the thorough interaction analyses (ofc spf is doing them and sloon himself also did his own lc spew analysis but i think silencing jay there does make sense and the argument could be made that it was to shut him down before he could more solidly find sloonei as mafia

[Hally]

i honestly think we should eliminate alison today over sloonei

nova and jay both sussed alison and were more pro-sloonei than most others (and yes, i know jay had sloonei in his poe but he still defended sloonei a fair bit and resisted what he thought was undue pressure on him). if nova and jay were here they would be pushing alison over sloonei. they aren’t here because mafia didn’t want them here, and we should keep that in mind

another reason i don’t think mafia!sloonei would kill jay because there was quite a bit of speculation about a sloonei/jay w/w world. if sloonei is mafia he is killing someone that 1) would have helped him survive this day by pushing alison and 2) could have been eliminated after a scum!sloonei flip because he would have looked bad. sloonei would be shooting himself in the foot making that kill

meanwhile, nutella, who should have been the most lock cleared person out of anyone N2 pending an lc scum flip, is still alive over jay. nut has been the most anti-sloonei person from the start and pro-alison. mafia left her alive for a reason, and i think it’s because they want her to keep tunneling sloonei

sloonei doesn’t make these kills. they’re incredibly suboptimal for him and it doesn’t make sense when he could just kill nut instead

let’s trust in our dead teammates and kill alison

Don't let the mafia manipulate you into voting me through NKs. You know as well as I do that scum teams work in strange ways and make strange night kills. Look at my POE analysis about deepwolves and why Sloonei is always scum here. Also nova didn't really have the ability to get people exed despite being widely townread so I think your analysis about me killing nova because he sussed me is off.

“scum teams work in mysterious ways”? no, i really don’t know that. what does that even mean? so you think sloonei made two wifom kills in a row just to frame you instead of shooting his biggest pusher and the clearest person in the game? is that your argument? why would he do that? how is that optimal? i expect you to have an actual, logical answer if you’re going to argue this, not “lol wifom idk”

also say what you want but at the end of the day nova’s vote was going to be on you not sloonei

[Alison]

NKA definitely has its place in mafia games but exeing someone who's less suspicious over someone who's more suspicious purely based off NKA doesn't make sense. The NK is controlled by the mafia; you don't want it to be the sole arbiter of who to exe, because it's not coming from people who are using it to achieve good outcomes for town. I wouldn't have boxed myself into a POE this small if I was scum. Heck, I'm openly offering to let you exe me without a single shred of resistance whatsoever if Sloonei flips town. Because at that point in the game my presence is -EV. I'd much rather die, flip green and leave you guys with strong legacy reads to help you hunt the deepwolf than be dragged to endgame as the designated game-losing misexe.

Sloonei has been scummy since Day 1. If you exe me, I am going to flip green and then you will have to exe Sloonei tomorrow anyway. Kill Sloonei first.

linki: That's not what I'm saying actually. I'm saying "NKA isn't reliable because the reasons scum make kills aren't the reasons you think they do sometimes". The town collectively buried itself in a hole in Space Invaders in part due to no-kill one night and it convinced itself that the only people who had a motive to do that were the people assigned to protect nutella.

No, I'm not going to stand here and pretend I know what Sloonei was thinking when he shot Jay and nova. I'm not Sloonei. I've posited a hypothesis about why Jay was shot, to silence him before he could get there about Sloonei being scum. No clue on nova. I'm just telling you what I know from my perspective, which is that it is incorrect to rely strongly on night-kill analysis to make your decisions over in-game actions. NKA has its place and it can be used as a tiebreaker or to try to track the mafia's patterns/philosophy in killing players, but don't use it as a substitute for actual hunting.

I've made actions that would box myself into a POE if I'm scum. I've offered to let you exe me without resistance if Sloonei flips town. If I'm scum I'm not doing that because I'm not gambling the game on my scum buddy winning a 6v1 in a playerlist this strong and a bunch of hard locked town. I'm going to hard push Thunal or someone else I think I can raise suspicion on, tutuu or something, and try to expand the POE at all costs and drag myself to endgame while murdering as many townies as possible. Not give it all up just to get a townie who was already destined to die sooner or later (Sloonei) exed before me.

Trust me on this. I am town. I saw Sloonei vent. Vote him out, and if it's not him you can vote me.

[Hally]

now im paranoid jay was killed so sloonei would be misyeeted lol fuck

but

u guys are way more invested in the game

im glad i didnt defend lc even tho i townread him

so like i shouldnt get in the way

Meh. You can just as easily argue that Jay was killed while his read status on Sloonei was still uncertain, before he could get there on Sloonei being scum and soul read him as mafia.

i feel like two game days was sufficient enough time for jay to soul read sloonei mafia if that was going to happen

eh it could change after the first red flip though; plus killing jay after the first red flip is always smart because he always does the thorough interaction analyses (ofc spf is doing them and sloon himself also did his own lc spew analysis but i think silencing jay there does make sense and the argument could be made that it was to shut him down before he could more solidly find sloonei as mafia

but you already found sloonei as mafia if he’s mafia. you already linked him to lc too. why not shoot you, the person who already found him, over the person who might possibly find him? idk, i don’t want to beat this horse to death but i really think it’s strictly better for sloonei to shoot you, and maybe even n1 instead of n2

[Hally]

to be clear, i don’t think sloonei is more suspicious than you, alison. i think you’re about even, which is why i’m using the kills and dead villagers’ reads to guide me

[Alison]

but you already found sloonei as mafia if he’s mafia. you already linked him to lc too. why not shoot you, the person who already found him, over the person who might possibly find him? idk, i don’t want to beat this horse to death but i really think it’s strictly better for sloonei to shoot you, and maybe even n1 instead of n2

Here's a line of argument I think might make sense to you. You argue to me that nutella already caught Sloonei. nutella is widely believed to be a townie and already got one scum exed. From the point of view of Sloonei, isn't he stuck between a rock and a hard place? If he lets nutella live, nutella finds him and uses her clout to vote him. If he lets Jay live, Jay probably finds him (not exactly hard since Jay is good at reading Sloonei and there's like two people in the POE to choose from), and uses his clout to vote him.

If Sloonei's already going into this day with the idea that a widely townread player with clout is going to find him and push him, what's the best way he can slip away? Neither nutella nor Jay are particularly easy to talk down when they really think someone is scum. I suggest to you that the most viable way for Sloonei to wriggle out of an exe here is actually by making the townies who have him pinned down doubt themselves and step away from their read out of paranoia or uncertainty. In that respect, a WIFOM kill meant to frame me makes more sense than just shooting whoever scumreads him more.

[nutella]

NKA definitely has its place in mafia games but exeing someone who's less suspicious over someone who's more suspicious purely based off NKA doesn't make sense. The NK is controlled by the mafia; you don't want it to be the sole arbiter of who to exe, because it's not coming from people who are using it to achieve good outcomes for town. I wouldn't have boxed myself into a POE this small if I was scum. Heck, I'm openly offering to let you exe me without a single shred of resistance whatsoever if Sloonei flips town. Because at that point in the game my presence is -EV. I'd much rather die, flip green and leave you guys with strong legacy reads to help you hunt the deepwolf than be dragged to endgame as the designated game-losing misexe.

Sloonei has been scummy since Day 1. If you exe me, I am going to flip green and then you will have to exe Sloonei tomorrow anyway. Kill Sloonei first.

linki: That's not what I'm saying actually. I'm saying "NKA isn't reliable because the reasons scum make kills aren't the reasons you think they do sometimes". The town collectively buried itself in a hole in Space Invaders in part due to no-kill one night and it convinced itself that the only people who had a motive to do that were the people assigned to protect nutella.

No, I'm not going to stand here and pretend I know what Sloonei was thinking when he shot Jay and nova. I'm not Sloonei. I've posited a hypothesis about why Jay was shot, to silence him before he could get there about Sloonei being scum. No clue on nova. I'm just telling you what I know from my perspective, which is that it is incorrect to rely strongly on night-kill analysis to make your decisions over in-game actions. NKA has its place and it can be used as a tiebreaker or to try to track the mafia's patterns/philosophy in killing players, but don't use it as a substitute for actual hunting.

I've made actions that would box myself into a POE if I'm scum. I've offered to let you exe me without resistance if Sloonei flips town. If I'm scum I'm not doing that because I'm not gambling the game on my scum buddy winning a 6v1 in a playerlist this strong and a bunch of hard locked town. I'm going to hard push Thunal or someone else I think I can raise suspicion on, tutuu or something, and try to expand the POE at all costs and drag myself to endgame while murdering as many townies as possible. Not give it all up just to get a townie who was already destined to die sooner or later (Sloonei) exed before me.

Trust me on this. I am town. I saw Sloonei vent. Vote him out, and if it's not him you can vote me.

ok

[nutella]

now im paranoid jay was killed so sloonei would be misyeeted lol fuck

but

u guys are way more invested in the game

im glad i didnt defend lc even tho i townread him

so like i shouldnt get in the way

Meh. You can just as easily argue that Jay was killed while his read status on Sloonei was still uncertain, before he could get there on Sloonei being scum and soul read him as mafia.

i feel like two game days was sufficient enough time for jay to soul read sloonei mafia if that was going to happen

eh it could change after the first red flip though; plus killing jay after the first red flip is always smart because he always does the thorough interaction analyses (ofc spf is doing them and sloon himself also did his own lc spew analysis but i think silencing jay there does make sense and the argument could be made that it was to shut him down before he could more solidly find sloonei as mafia

but you already found sloonei as mafia if he’s mafia. you already linked him to lc too. why not shoot you, the person who already found him, over the person who might possibly find him? idk, i don’t want to beat this horse to death but i really think it’s strictly better for sloonei to shoot you, and maybe even n1 instead of n2

i mean the obvious answer here is because of the specific jay sloonei meta thing where people will listen more definitively to jay's read of sloonei but i mean i don't want to devalue my own/the consensus scumread of sloonei that was already pretty established so eh

[nutella]

lol if this is a repeat of space invaders where alison is wolf and i'm the ic and blindly trust her

[nutella]

but you already found sloonei as mafia if he’s mafia. you already linked him to lc too. why not shoot you, the person who already found him, over the person who might possibly find him? idk, i don’t want to beat this horse to death but i really think it’s strictly better for sloonei to shoot you, and maybe even n1 instead of n2

Here's a line of argument I think might make sense to you. You argue to me that nutella already caught Sloonei. nutella is widely believed to be a townie and already got one scum exed. From the point of view of Sloonei, isn't he stuck between a rock and a hard place? If he lets nutella live, nutella finds him and uses her clout to vote him. If he lets Jay live, Jay probably finds him (not exactly hard since Jay is good at reading Sloonei and there's like two people in the POE to choose from), and uses his clout to vote him.

If Sloonei's already going into this day with the idea that a widely townread player with clout is going to find him and push him, what's the best way he can slip away? Neither nutella nor Jay are particularly easy to talk down when they really think someone is scum. I suggest to you that the most viable way for Sloonei to wriggle out of an exe here is actually by making the townies who have him pinned down doubt themselves and step away from their read out of paranoia or uncertainty. In that respect, a WIFOM kill meant to frame me makes more sense than just shooting whoever scumreads him more.

yeah perhaps


but also you could be the wolf who thought all this through already

[nutella]

idk that big alison post just really convinced me again and i just still want to kill sloonei first and if he does flip town then yes by all means absolutely go for alison next


but it has been established that alison can fool me with her reasoning and sounding like she's coming from a town pov

[staypositivefriend]

NKA definitely has its place in mafia games but exeing someone who's less suspicious over someone who's more suspicious purely based off NKA doesn't make sense. The NK is controlled by the mafia; you don't want it to be the sole arbiter of who to exe, because it's not coming from people who are using it to achieve good outcomes for town. I wouldn't have boxed myself into a POE this small if I was scum. Heck, I'm openly offering to let you exe me without a single shred of resistance whatsoever if Sloonei flips town. Because at that point in the game my presence is -EV. I'd much rather die, flip green and leave you guys with strong legacy reads to help you hunt the deepwolf than be dragged to endgame as the designated game-losing misexe.

Sloonei has been scummy since Day 1. If you exe me, I am going to flip green and then you will have to exe Sloonei tomorrow anyway. Kill Sloonei first.

linki: That's not what I'm saying actually. I'm saying "NKA isn't reliable because the reasons scum make kills aren't the reasons you think they do sometimes". The town collectively buried itself in a hole in Space Invaders in part due to no-kill one night and it convinced itself that the only people who had a motive to do that were the people assigned to protect nutella.

No, I'm not going to stand here and pretend I know what Sloonei was thinking when he shot Jay and nova. I'm not Sloonei. I've posited a hypothesis about why Jay was shot, to silence him before he could get there about Sloonei being scum. No clue on nova. I'm just telling you what I know from my perspective, which is that it is incorrect to rely strongly on night-kill analysis to make your decisions over in-game actions. NKA has its place and it can be used as a tiebreaker or to try to track the mafia's patterns/philosophy in killing players, but don't use it as a substitute for actual hunting.

I've made actions that would box myself into a POE if I'm scum. I've offered to let you exe me without resistance if Sloonei flips town. If I'm scum I'm not doing that because I'm not gambling the game on my scum buddy winning a 6v1 in a playerlist this strong and a bunch of hard locked town. I'm going to hard push Thunal or someone else I think I can raise suspicion on, tutuu or something, and try to expand the POE at all costs and drag myself to endgame while murdering as many townies as possible. Not give it all up just to get a townie who was already destined to die sooner or later (Sloonei) exed before me.

Trust me on this. I am town. I saw Sloonei vent. Vote him out, and if it's not him you can vote me.

is it bad that i find this convincing?

[Hally]

but you already found sloonei as mafia if he’s mafia. you already linked him to lc too. why not shoot you, the person who already found him, over the person who might possibly find him? idk, i don’t want to beat this horse to death but i really think it’s strictly better for sloonei to shoot you, and maybe even n1 instead of n2

Here's a line of argument I think might make sense to you. You argue to me that nutella already caught Sloonei. nutella is widely believed to be a townie and already got one scum exed. From the point of view of Sloonei, isn't he stuck between a rock and a hard place? If he lets nutella live, nutella finds him and uses her clout to vote him. If he lets Jay live, Jay probably finds him (not exactly hard since Jay is good at reading Sloonei and there's like two people in the POE to choose from), and uses his clout to vote him.

If Sloonei's already going into this day with the idea that a widely townread player with clout is going to find him and push him, what's the best way he can slip away? Neither nutella nor Jay are particularly easy to talk down when they really think someone is scum. I suggest to you that the most viable way for Sloonei to wriggle out of an exe here is actually by making the townies who have him pinned down doubt themselves and step away from their read out of paranoia or uncertainty. In that respect, a WIFOM kill meant to frame me makes more sense than just shooting whoever scumreads him more.

1) you’re taking it as a given that jay would be scum reading sloonei right now if he were here. i don’t know that and neither do you. for all i know, maybe he’d be screaming at us that sloonei is town and we should kill you. that is what his posts indicate, so that is what im going off of

2) you’re not taking into account that jay could potentially have been mislimed in the event of a sloonei wolf flip. a jay/sloonei wolf world has been speculated on a lot. jay wouldn’t look great if sloonei flipped scum and honestly didn’t look great off lc’s flip either. so scum!sloonei MIGHT get some bit of value out of wifoming people into doubting he’s scum and eliminating you instead (although i’d argue it’s doubtful he ever seriously thinks that given that typically nobody puts any stock into nk’s in the way i’m doing now) that bit of value is outweighed by the damage of losing jay as a possible future mischop

[MartinGG99]

I keep on feeling like there has to be some solution to all of our concerns or tinfoils here. I'm not opposed to compromising with others if it means they get to check out if their X hypothetical tinfoil world exists.

Personally in my beliefs and/or scum-read that 2 scum are in nook/sloonei/tutuu I feel fairly confident that's the right thing.

But we have 2 miseliminations till a situation where we have to correctly eliminate a mafia. With my 3 suspects theory, there's max 1 town (or miselimination there).

So, theoretically speaking, we can do a free elimination at any point outside my 3 suspects and it would be 100% fine if I'm right on that theory of 2 scum in the three suspects.

Better yet, if somehow an elimination outside of my 3 suspects is a red flip then obviously I am very much wrong....unless you're suggesting to eliminate me lol, but I would be open to a miselimination of me only if it furthered the persuasiveness my reads on the game-state.

(Yes, this is suggestive of info-elimination for which I got flak for before and probably will again)

However, considering that extra elimination could be used any time and right now I don't feel like enticing an Alison elimination unless we're doing it D4 (even though I believe she's 100% town).

~9 posts left for me.

[staypositivefriend]

i think that hally does present a compelling case for why sloonei being scum is not something we can say with 100% slam dunk certainty - and i agree with their points - but the part that i object to is the idea that we should chop alison over sloonei ~because~ of that case. i just think that sloonei's interactions with long con reflect a lot more poorly on sloonei than alison's do, and while i can see alison being scum, i also find it really hard to envision a world where sloonei flips town

i am mindful of the fact that i could easily be confirmation biasing myself because of how early into the game i was suspicious of sloonei, but i just think he's the best chop today based on the information we have. shrug

[Hally]

i think that hally does present a compelling case for why sloonei being scum is not something we can say with 100% slam dunk certainty - and i agree with their points - but the part that i object to is the idea that we should chop alison over sloonei ~because~ of that case. i just think that sloonei's interactions with long con reflect a lot more poorly on sloonei than alison's do, and while i can see alison being scum, i also find it really hard to envision a world where sloonei flips town

i am mindful of the fact that i could easily be confirmation biasing myself because of how early into the game i was suspicious of sloonei, but i just think he's the best chop today based on the information we have. shrug

okay, i’m not going to insist. i don’t even know how confident i am in it myself. my goal was more so to get us to not be complacent and at least think twice before eliminating sloonei. if i’m right i can say i told you so, and if i’m wrong i’ll look dumb. won’t be the first time

[staypositivefriend]

i think that hally does present a compelling case for why sloonei being scum is not something we can say with 100% slam dunk certainty - and i agree with their points - but the part that i object to is the idea that we should chop alison over sloonei ~because~ of that case. i just think that sloonei's interactions with long con reflect a lot more poorly on sloonei than alison's do, and while i can see alison being scum, i also find it really hard to envision a world where sloonei flips town

i am mindful of the fact that i could easily be confirmation biasing myself because of how early into the game i was suspicious of sloonei, but i just think he's the best chop today based on the information we have. shrug

okay, i’m not going to insist. i don’t even know how confident i am in it myself. my goal was more so to get us to not be complacent and at least think twice before eliminating sloonei. if i’m right i can say i told you so, and if i’m wrong i’ll look dumb. won’t be the first time

lol i feel the exact way but on the opposite end of the spectrum, im worried about conf biasing myself and following the exact plan of the mafia while looking dumb when i end up being wrong

mafia sucks

[Hally]

i think that hally does present a compelling case for why sloonei being scum is not something we can say with 100% slam dunk certainty - and i agree with their points - but the part that i object to is the idea that we should chop alison over sloonei ~because~ of that case. i just think that sloonei's interactions with long con reflect a lot more poorly on sloonei than alison's do, and while i can see alison being scum, i also find it really hard to envision a world where sloonei flips town

i am mindful of the fact that i could easily be confirmation biasing myself because of how early into the game i was suspicious of sloonei, but i just think he's the best chop today based on the information we have. shrug

okay, i’m not going to insist. i don’t even know how confident i am in it myself. my goal was more so to get us to not be complacent and at least think twice before eliminating sloonei. if i’m right i can say i told you so, and if i’m wrong i’ll look dumb. won’t be the first time

lol i feel the exact way but on the opposite end of the spectrum, im worried about conf biasing myself and following the exact plan of the mafia while looking dumb when i end up being wrong

mafia sucks

tfw no mindmeld

[Sloonei]

NKA definitely has its place in mafia games but exeing someone who's less suspicious over someone who's more suspicious purely based off NKA doesn't make sense. The NK is controlled by the mafia; you don't want it to be the sole arbiter of who to exe, because it's not coming from people who are using it to achieve good outcomes for town. I wouldn't have boxed myself into a POE this small if I was scum. Heck, I'm openly offering to let you exe me without a single shred of resistance whatsoever if Sloonei flips town. Because at that point in the game my presence is -EV. I'd much rather die, flip green and leave you guys with strong legacy reads to help you hunt the deepwolf than be dragged to endgame as the designated game-losing misexe.

Sloonei has been scummy since Day 1. If you exe me, I am going to flip green and then you will have to exe Sloonei tomorrow anyway. Kill Sloonei first.

linki: That's not what I'm saying actually. I'm saying "NKA isn't reliable because the reasons scum make kills aren't the reasons you think they do sometimes". The town collectively buried itself in a hole in Space Invaders in part due to no-kill one night and it convinced itself that the only people who had a motive to do that were the people assigned to protect nutella.

No, I'm not going to stand here and pretend I know what Sloonei was thinking when he shot Jay and nova. I'm not Sloonei. I've posited a hypothesis about why Jay was shot, to silence him before he could get there about Sloonei being scum. No clue on nova. I'm just telling you what I know from my perspective, which is that it is incorrect to rely strongly on night-kill analysis to make your decisions over in-game actions. NKA has its place and it can be used as a tiebreaker or to try to track the mafia's patterns/philosophy in killing players, but don't use it as a substitute for actual hunting.

I've made actions that would box myself into a POE if I'm scum. I've offered to let you exe me without resistance if Sloonei flips town. If I'm scum I'm not doing that because I'm not gambling the game on my scum buddy winning a 6v1 in a playerlist this strong and a bunch of hard locked town. I'm going to hard push Thunal or someone else I think I can raise suspicion on, tutuu or something, and try to expand the POE at all costs and drag myself to endgame while murdering as many townies as possible. Not give it all up just to get a townie who was already destined to die sooner or later (Sloonei) exed before me.

Trust me on this. I am town. I saw Sloonei vent. Vote him out, and if it's not him you can vote me.

How confident are you that I am mafia?

[staypositivefriend]

if i die tonight, then hally, nutella, and thunal are my strongest townreads

[staypositivefriend]

vote: sloonei

i'm about to go to bed, and after some consideration, this is where my voting is landing. i have reasons to be paranoid about alison, but sloonei has just straight up not towntold to me in the way that i would expect him to as town. i'll feel bad if i conf biased myself into a mischop, but i know that i'll feel worse if i talk myself out of voting one of my strongest scumreads because im scared that i'm wrong

dunno if i'll be around for the deadline or not - if im not, then good luck town! i have faith in all of u

[tutuu]

fwiw lc and spf had a lot of interaction in the grasslands chat that is worth looking at and i think reflects well on her

I disagree that it wasnt fakeable; long con just like lowkey flamed her but he had no reason to; could be w/w

[tutuu]

I decided to townread thunal now. So fuck me

[tutuu]

Maybe my reason to townread nook is dumb

[tutuu]

What if sloonei and alison are BOTH TOWN

DUN DUN DUUUUUUUUNNNNNNNNN

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Maybe my reason to townread nook is dumb

Whatever it is it’s accurate so don’t worry about it

[tutuu]

>.<

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Was that not reassuring

[tutuu]

Man if sloonei and alison are both town this game is HARD FUCKED

I do not wish to go to f5 as the designated misyeet, and ALSO this game has obnoxious f5 mechanics. If there is 1 mafia and 1 town in the tree house and it will come to which one of them votes faster in the quick topic. All week of mafia gameplay just to be decided on a coinflip. *click* noice

The only way to go around that id to put both mafia in the greenhouse but i havent done the math if its possible with 3 town votes vs 2

I wonder if its even mechanically possible to win f5 with 2 mafia in this setup, even if they are mechanically outed? Without resorting to the coinflip i meant. I just know thsts what it will come down to rofl. Better start practicing on quick racer rn

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

F5 is very very hard (and really really stupid fwiw)

Basically have to try to put both mafia in the grasslands, which is technically possible but very hard to manage (technically possible functionally not depending how Mafia play it)

Or town in the treehouse has to post their vote in the treehouse first AND vote for town

So yeah f5 is a loss a LOT of the time for really stupid game design reasons

[tutuu]

Like lets say f5 with 2 mod confirmed mafia and 3 town

The goal is to end the day with most votes on mafia and least votes on second mafia. Send both to grassland. They are forced to put a town in there. The last 2 town in treehouse dont have to worry about not voting fast enough

All townies combine. 3 votes on one of the mafia, each of them self votes, 0 votes on 2nd mafia. The mafia has enough votes to fuck up both spots for the greenhouse

So basically if it goes to f5 the game boils down to:
-arbitrary tiebreakers due to post count
-random ass chaotic eod vote timings with little place for coherency
-random ass 50/50 coinflip in the treehouse based on who votes first

Now this is the mafia experience im here for

[tutuu]

De jure we have 2 misyeets left but de facto we sort of have 1. If we hit town today its sort of lylo

[tutuu]

Actually they cant fuck up the spot with most votes cuz the tiebreaker there is decided by who gets to 3 votes first. Maf cant do that on their own. So we're actually good on that. The least votes tiebreaker is fucking post count tho. Rofl

It might actually be pro-town to spam the thread if ur town to inflate ur post count (because u want to lose the tiebreaker)

Post cap gets lifted 2 hours before eod

That begs the moral question - would we all actually start spamming the thread with "qwe qwe", making infinite posts, because it will increase ur chances to win the more posts u have

It will definitely make for a memorable game. Brb let me look if there are any rules against spamming on the syndicate

[tutuu]

I WANT

I WANT

I WANT

the game to degenerate to a spam fest when we're all spamming purely out of attempts to advance our wincons

PLEASE make it happen

Ive heard a wise saying: when u are forced to make a choice, go with the choice that will leave u with a better story to tell afterwards

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

A) plz don’t

B) there’s a post cap

C) plz don’t

[tutuu]

Post cap gets lifted 2 hours before eod

Just saw its written in the syndicate forum rules "users agree to not spam"

If that wasnt written there i swear to god i would have done it. It would have ben glorious