The Syndicate

G-Man if you're interested in the idea of an all-civ game you should check out my 1984 mafia idea. The idea there is that the host flips a coin at the start of the game: if it lands heads there's mafia, if it lands tails there's no mafia. If there's no mafia, then town wants to no exe like in this game. If there is mafia, then town wants to root them out - so the mafia tries to convince town there's no mafia.

Enrique wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:36 pm It didn't come out of nowhere. G-Man left hints, and not just in the flavor but especially in the set-up. It was winnable. It wasn't that bad.

I don't read flavor.

Flavor being relevant to in-game mechanics is also bastard.

I'm glad tutuu isn't playing in this game or she'd have a fucking novel prepared about this.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:28 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:23 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:15 pm "What if everyone is town" is a funny idea but annoying and a waste of time jn practice
The worst thing about this is that I'll have to hear "everyone is so dang townie! what if everyone is town and there's no mafia and the host is jerking our chain?" which I hear in every closed setup role madness game I play and shoot down every time because it's silly.

Except now it actually happened so people will take it seriously lol
Twice at the same time, even!

Well, GOC didn't have a mafia in the traditional sense but there was a hostile 3P making nightkills that town had to try and stop so it was at least a proper game. This is just weird.

So now we have a game explicitly declared bastard that contained no bastard elements and a game marketed as simply "mafia" that contains no mafia

I suggest we create a Game of Champions next year where only players who have not won a game on the Syndicate in 2021 get to sign up.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:19 pm This is, to be clear, the epitome of a bastard game. So if folks are upset I don’t blame them either. There was a time when I’d have been pissed.

I’m getting too old for this.

I'm not upset I just think bastard games should be declared bastard. My solving was oriented around the basic idea that there was a malicious force working behind the scenes in the night.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:15 pm "What if everyone is town" is a funny idea but annoying and a waste of time jn practice

The worst thing about this is that I'll have to hear "everyone is so dang townie! what if everyone is town and there's no mafia and the host is jerking our chain?" which I hear in every closed setup role madness game I play and shoot down every time because it's silly.

Except now it actually happened so people will take it seriously lol

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:12 pm I wonder how long it took our dear departed corpses to begin to come to terms with the idea that something just isn’t right.

After I died and nokills kept happening I abandoned the idea that mafia were blocked - it was too much of a coincidence. I theorized that maybe the mafia team had no nightkills and had to win via elimination, or they had a secret ability that allowed them to win conditionally (like my own role in GOC). But I didn't expect this.

imo declare your games are bastard before I replace into them

I was working under the impression that this wasn't a bastard game and "everyone is town" is a bastard mechanic

KZA wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:40 pm I'm town. Gonna read the whole thread in a bit.

There are two afks player slots.

The mafia team did not submit a night action last night. No protective abilities were used, and nobody was blocked or jailkept.

Tell me why you and Poison aren't just the outed team.

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:34 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:28 am basically the only way that theory is true is if ALL the scum members are afk (because otherwise the active scum would just submit the factional NK), and that seems unlikely compared to just "the mafia were roleblocked"
Okay, but it’s not me. And if it’s Scirrus then I still don’t believe there was a vig kill of Marmot, IMO that would’ve just been a straight mafia kill, and Scirrus takes a big gamble claiming vig without being able to know for certain that there’s another. And IYO, does the existence of a mafia vig imply that there can’t be a town one?

not sure

town vig + mafia vig + 2 docs is an interesting setup

I tend to believe mafia vig = no town vig

it's possible scirrus just carried the NK to marmot's door and there was never a vig at all, yes.

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:30 am The flipside for you in case of a Grogu scum flip: we couldn’t really say you’re cleared for Night 1 anymore (I had been operating under the assumption mafia failed to kill you), but you’d still pretty much get cleared on Night 2, when you would have been free to kill someone.

i can, because I was around n1 and could have submitted the kill

lol

basically the only way that theory is true is if ALL the scum members are afk (because otherwise the active scum would just submit the factional NK), and that seems unlikely compared to just "the mafia were roleblocked"

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:20 am If there was a person who was supposed to do it and just forgot, nobody else had to forget, and aside from the straight up missing reywaS it wouldn’t be unlikely for a relatively innactive teammate (ie. Poison) to not follow up on the state of the kill.

The same thing happening on two consecutive nights is a lot, I realize that. But the mafia failing to kill in two nights doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that they’re here and active / paying attention.

Grogu just accused me of hoping he flips scum. Yes, I hope exactly that, but I wouldn’t be able to if I was scum! He missed a night action and is exactly as disconnected as I expect the mafia to be at this point.

most scum team NKs are factional. even if an inactive player was selected to carry the kill, the active player could still confirm it and have it go through.

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:08 am Okay but. This player admitted that they forgot to send their night action. They weren’t ant more active the following day. I’m not pulling it out of my ass.

yeah and the entire mafia team also forgot, did they? 2-3 players that comprise the exact mafia team, talking in BTSC, all just getting confused and noping out of submitting an NK? I don't buy it.

it could be scirrus and grogu. or scirrus, grogu and JJJ. or all three.

that's my solve atm.

3 voters on enrique. 2 voters on grogu. 0 votes on scirrus.

enrique and scirrus are implicated by the roleblock.

scirrus' teammates are trying to save him. vote scirrus.

you're implicated by the roleblock so obviously you have an incentive to argue that the mafia kill was simply forgotten and not blocked

but I do not accept facetious arguments like "what if the mafia team all just vanished into thin air and totally forgot to submit an NK" when I have 2 roleblocks on the table

Given the roles we know about, 2 mafia with one of them being given extra KP is reasonable balance. We have two doctors after all.

fingersplints wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:26 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:22 am As long as one mafia member is active, they aren't sending in nokills. So yes it is insane.

Scirrus can be a mafia vigilante.

We should always vote the mechanically outed scum. Always.
I don’t know that I buy in this small of a game the mafia would be given an extra kill.

We just lynched a civ by following “mechanically outed”

LC could be town and the kill was protected. There is no explanation for why the kill is missing tonight other than a mafia being blocked. None. Nada. Zilch. "The mafia were afk" doesn't cut it because even a single mafia member alive lets them carry a kill.

I suspect Scirrus more and too many random people want to vote Enrique. Whoever mafia is they have someone angling for an Enrique exe. I am voting Scirrus.

It doesn't matter. Scirrus and Enrique were roleblocked. The mafia kill is missing. One of them carried the factional kill. At least one of them is mafia. It is always mech optimal to vote there and even the most clueless greenhorn who plays on Town of Salem knows that.

As long as one mafia member is active, they aren't sending in nokills. So yes it is insane.

Scirrus can be a mafia vigilante.

We should always vote the mechanically outed scum. Always.

I can't get over this. Anyone who looks at a nokill + two claimed roleblocks and thjnks mafia was afk is out of their minds or TMI-ing like crazy. Someone give me a dayvig so I can gun down Scirrus and exe Enrique.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:49 pm I'm not accepting this.

There was a kill N1. That was Marmot. Someone sent that in. Who was it?

I block Enrique and there's no kill and people are voting Grogu?

Yes. It is completely insane to be voting afks when we have a caught scum between Scirrus and Enrique.

[VOTE: Scirrus] aubergine

Scirrus wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:15 pm
Scirrus wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:09 pm
fingersplints wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:02 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:51 pm I'll see what splints has to say about a block or anyone else with mechanical theories for another failed kill.

Otherwise my fresh thoughts are I'm going to kill the people not sending actions.
I blocked scirrus. I was hoping to test if he claimed civ vig but was actually the mafia kill but dunno with Epi’s block and inactivity out there.
I was a civ vig before and i'm a civ vig now. Well, a 0-shot vig anyway

I don't know if I think the enrique block was block either, tbh.

The LC block makes me not wanna blindly trust them
"block was block" yeah lol sorry

i meant:

"I don't know if the enrique block was a block on mafia"

The LC block led us to believe that we caught mafia which caused on pile on and nothing much happened for the rest of D2. Which I don't want to repeat itself.

The LC block wasn't a hit because Epi protected me. If mafia wasn't blocked, why was there a nokill?

You are trying to use what happened D2 to stop town from voting you after you got caught trying to carry you. JJJ is a possible partner. The alternative is Enrique, who can still be partnered with you, but might be partnered with Grogu or Poison or reywas instead.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:16 pm I tend to view the game as follows:

reywaS and/or Grogu are mafia. They fit on any team and offer their own explanations for two non-kills.

[Alison OR Scirrus] + Enrique rounds it out if any rounding is needed.

It is not sane to attribute a no kill to a completely afk mafia team when two blocks happened

I forgot reywas even existed. How have they not been replaced?

you can go to the last of the POE.

scirrus and one or two of poison/grogu.

if I haven't miscleared anyone then this is auto. if there's two mafia then we can afford the misexe, if there's three mafia then all three are going to be hits.

the big question is whether enrique can make #484 as mafia. I'm not sure but it's a better reason to townread him than anyone else in the POE.

if the mafia nightkill here, there will be 8 players alive tomorrow.

we have 0 misexes if there's 3 mafia, and only 1 misexe if there's 2 mafia.

we do not have the space to go through all of [grogu/poison/scirrus/enrique], and they're too low activity for me to sort easily, so we have to use some other method. I'm open to suggestions.

I don't have the space to entertain tinfoil. JJJ and Epignosis and fingersplints are town. If they fooled me, congrats, have your win.

grogu and poison are the big question marks.

town has been led astray this game.

are they the ones lurking in the shadows?

I'm most confident in scirrus scum, but enrique could be innocent and it could be scirrus + grogu or scirrus + poison.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:39 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:36 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:30 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:25 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:19 pm Long Con wasn't blocked, therefore Alison was protected -- unless anyone else has something she's "mechanically" civilian. Quotes added for the G-Manism.
Nobody is denying Alison was protected. I'm telling you that much.

Is Alison a civilian?
What I mean is that her protection is what prevented the kill. So she’s a civilian in nearly all scenarios other than [mafia teammate of Scirrus and they just shot Marmot as a normal kill]. That’s not a scenario that moves me, so she’s clear.

If anyone has some other logic by all means throw it out there.
Genius, if Alison is Mafia, I waste my protection on mafia instead of a civilian.
Right, but if a kill was stopped then it must have an explanation. Two alternatives exist that I can see. Alison and Scirrus are both mafia and Marmot was a regular kill, or Alison is with an abstained kill.
The third alternative is that mafia didn't submit a kill and neither of these individuals had anything to do with it.

not likely. the mafia would know you were protecting me, or strongly suspect, so they'd risk clearing me for free while leaving PRs run around amok. doesn't seem reasonable.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:31 pm Alison's role is useless. "I get heads or tails." Super. Why ask me to protect you?

the PR line: because I thought there was a strongman kill and wanted to bait them into using it on me and not the real PRs.

the actual line: because the town was in a shambles and I felt our best shot at winning was to have a town leader who could whip everyone else into shape, and I decided to take on that role so I needed to live.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:20 am
Enrique wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:08 pm I’m not inclined to buy either the “mafia voluntarily abstained” or “Scirrus is a vig but a bad one” explanations. He could be lying, but not in that way... maybe it’s just my ignorance but how often are mafia vigs even a thing? In a game so small that feels super unbalanced. On the other hand if there was a real civ vig and it wasn’t him we would probably find out. Alison has to twist the while history of the game so far to make her explanation make any sense. I feel pretty confident that her version of the events is not what happened. I have trouble seeing her sincerelt believe it.

splints gets the big catch blocking LC. It could be an elaborate plan but on its own it’s already a much likelier explanation than the two mentioned above.

one min left gota got
enrique's scumreads this game:
JJJ
nook
me
LC

I know three players on this list are town and townread the last one. enrique has been trying to kill townies all game. enrique is scum.

the same goes for JJJ, but I trust him more. he has a townier role and he has been townier on play. however if JJJ is town he needs to re-eval because all his scumreads have been wrong.

does splints as mafia ever decide to randomly claim a roleblock on a civillian to frame them?

I think the probability is low. Maybe I am being outplayed but I had a townread on splints earlier.

splints is fine for now.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:23 pm Whatever I think of Scirrus at face value and/or theories of his claim, I must acknowledge he was a wet noodle all of Day 2. I'm open to dialogue.

i propose to you that scirrus and I should be treated as difference checked.

1) we both have strong scumreads on each other.

2) if I am town, scum tried to shoot me last night. my scumreads were marmot and scirrus. if both marmot and scirrus were town, scum would shoot epi and let me tunnel townies. therefore if I am town scirrus is scum, and since we aren't scum together, if I am scum scirrus is town.

Enrique wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:08 pm I’m not inclined to buy either the “mafia voluntarily abstained” or “Scirrus is a vig but a bad one” explanations. He could be lying, but not in that way... maybe it’s just my ignorance but how often are mafia vigs even a thing? In a game so small that feels super unbalanced. On the other hand if there was a real civ vig and it wasn’t him we would probably find out. Alison has to twist the while history of the game so far to make her explanation make any sense. I feel pretty confident that her version of the events is not what happened. I have trouble seeing her sincerelt believe it.

splints gets the big catch blocking LC. It could be an elaborate plan but on its own it’s already a much likelier explanation than the two mentioned above.

one min left gota got

enrique's scumreads this game:
JJJ
nook
me
LC

I know three players on this list are town and townread the last one. enrique has been trying to kill townies all game. enrique is scum.

Enrique wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:58 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:56 pm
Enrique wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:55 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:06 am Why is part of the theory involving me trying to kill Epi? That's the most unbelievable thing. I'd never target Epi night 1 for a kill.

The host made an announcement that the mafia can withhold their kill. This is probably what happened
Stretch.
At least one of us is trying to solve.
Unfair.

what are your reads

You think mafia nokilled with 3 PR claims on the table? I don't.

Voting is not what I meant about not getting into the fray. Show me a post where he engages with a scumread or steps into a conflict (etc. between you and Epi). Show me where he was interrogating people, trying to form a towncore, or doing all the shit that town normally does. I see him avoiding conflict, not courting it. I don't think he does that as town, at least not to this degree.

I think my reads were pretty well explained, yes, and that is a bad defense. I know Scirrus was anti-Marmot but it seemed to me that he was more anti-Alison and since Alison is scumreading Marmot, even if you suspect both you should logically resolve Alison first. Unless you think he shot Marmot over me because he was afraid Epi would protect me?

I don't think Scirrus shot Marmot to claim for credit I think Scirrus shot Marmot because JJJ/Alison are most likely protected, Epi was taken care of by LC (or so he thought), and so the shot pool for a hypothetical Mafia Vigilante Scirrus is {splints, Grogu, Poison, Enrique, Marmot}, and out of those, Marmot is the most likely to catch a scum during the day since the others are all kinda low energy/distracted/gimmicky. It's a SPK, and the fact that it helps cast doubt on you and me + it's easy to say you did as Vigilante is fine.

If Scirrus is town Vigilante, why doesn't he shoot me? He thought I was scum. I was attacking Marmot.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:35 am Scirrus is mafia because his early readslist was a player salad, his posts have been uninspiring, he's refused to get his hands dirty in the fray, and his response to my case was an instant OMGUS and attempt to discredit it. He is mafia on play.

^

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:26 am Gonna be frank:

I don't think there's any way in hell a civilian Alison thinks [mafia vigilante Scirrus] is the most probable explanation for these events. The logic is loaded with holes, the assumptions are too numerous, and the odds at face value should seem low. I also don't really believe her suspicion of Scirrus's behavior is real and have been tweaked by that since she got here.

She fits just fine with Long Con, and I feel like two mafia are solved. If anyone has a reason to calm my bravado, go for it. But I feel pretty damned good about this.

The logic is perfectly sound to be honest, and you're just wrong.

Scirrus is mafia because his early readslist was a player salad, his posts have been uninspiring, he's refused to get his hands dirty in the fray, and his response to my case was an instant OMGUS and attempt to discredit it. He is mafia on play.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:11 am A mafia vigilante is conceivable in a 9:2:1 game or a 10:2 game. Town would have strength by the numbers already and their role allotments would likely compensate for the worse. Maybe add a pinch of power if G-Man thinks Rackets are inherently pro-mafia (I do).

Town had an every night watcher (Marmot). Town had an every night doctor (Nanook). Town probably has a three-powered JOAT (Epignosis). Town has my hider role, which is butts but still actually presents a minimal chance of killing mafia by redirection.

This is hard to believe.

Which is more likely: town has 4 PRs and a mafia vigilante to balance things out, or town has 5 PRs (we'll take my own role as vanilla-ish since it's so unreliable)?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:05 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:01 am LC carries factional kill to Epi's door. Scirrus uses extra KP on marmot. It doesn't seem that ludicrous.
I think it seems pretty farfetched, and that you're calling it a top possibility makes me doubt you in general.

There are too many assumptions:

1) Scirrus wouldn't do what he did as a town vigilante
2) The mafia have a vigilante
3) The mafia were willing to use their vigilante kill on a consensus suspect that could have been chopped -- particularly one that claimed vanilla when both you and Epi existed with strong claims
4) Scirrus felt it was necessary to spam out his claim immediately to cover for a failed kill

I don't think 1) is a necessary assumption.

2) seems like a well justified assumption given what we know about town power roles this game.

3) I suspect Long Con tried to kill Epi. Epi was on me, so I wasn't a valid kill target that night.

4) is not a questionable assumption - Scirrus shot consensus scumread, so claiming the shot seems reasonable as it's not something that anyone would question.

Why is a more interesting question. He could have a PR read on Marmot, or think that the obvious kills (claimed PRs) are too likely to be protected. Or he could shoot a consensus suspect to make himself look like a town vig. You told us to analyze the game on behavior and not get into the setup spec weeds. On behavior scirrus is scum.

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