Holes Mafia {TOWN WINS}

[DrWilgy]

I see sleeping fur 12 hours was a mistake

Hello Neon! Are you a wolf this game?

[Sabiplz]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yea that's why I'm doubting Sean slip more than marmot

[DrWilgy]

@Marmot can you detail your Splints read for me?

That entry honestly felt the most off. It was very little motivation and an excuse for not engaging in mechanical talk.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

[Sabiplz]

I volunteer to be the last voter we dont end day early.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I volunteer to accidentally sleep for 12 hours and miss the start of the game

[Kate]

Sean is volume cleared.

Everyone else who has posted is also town

Volume cleared? His first 10-15 posts were one letter each

You didn't say why you voted for Wilgy. Lulz?

I would like to make a public plea to tptb to please bring back the linki!

Plz no

Plz yes.

@pyxxy I love mechanical discussion, and no one seems to want to do it anymore, I haz a sad. I especially love it in a game like this with unusual variables. Knowing what hypothetical zany shenanigans can happen before they happen to you is a good thing.

It's mostly a silly read that I don't believe in very much.

At least that part of it. I do think that Sean snapvoting to start the day while non-optimal is slightly townie.


Why would I do the same thing as Sean even if it's not optimal? It's been a long time since I've played a game with locked votes on Day 1, and if you remember, I used to be "that person" who would snapvote on Day 1, and I kinda wanted to do it again for old time's sake.

Ok I can get with the nostalgia with the best of them. But I have to wonder, today and even back when you were that guy, isn't it better to let some discussion happen before laying a vote on a potential civ with no way to undo it?

[Seanzie]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

[Seanzie]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

[Kate]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

I don't think it's a great idea for Marmot to do something someone else already did, then proclaim 'anyone who pushes me or Sean as wolf is wolf' and for us to fall for that. I was more pingy about Marmot doing this early vote thing until Sean then turned around and tried to push neon for doing what Marmot said we shouldn't do. Ya know?

[Seanzie]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

I don't think it's a great idea for Marmot to do something someone else already did, then proclaim 'anyone who pushes me or Sean as wolf is wolf' and for us to fall for that. I was more pingy about Marmot doing this early vote thing until Sean then turned around and tried to push neon for doing what Marmot said we shouldn't do. Ya know?

Your post has the penumbra of a Sean/Marmot w/w read. Do you think it makes sense for two wolves to lock votes on different people super early into D1?

[Kate]

To be honest I think seanzie just voting immediately doesn't mean much but I won't forget about it

Mac, do you sign up for games without reading the setup? Or am I weird for reading the setup

I know you asked Mac, but I never read the set up first. I have literally been eliminated before for not knowing my own town win condition.

I don’t mind mech discussion, and it’s not my forte, so I won’t participate much. I only don’t like mech discussion when it’s ALL someone will talk about as it seems like they are trying to be involved without actually

LOL good to know I'm just a weirdo

This is a good post 8.5/10 would read again

Maybe 9/10 if I'm feeling generous

Hi feeling generous, I'm Kate. That is if you are actually feeling generous.

[Kate]

Okay yeah I'm definitely just weird for reading setups

Good to know

Hi djwfrs, I'm Kate.

[Kate]

You forgetting to dig is honestly like, NAI because we just talked about how a lot of people don't read the setup

Can someone say something controversial to get this game really going

Something controversial.


Can someone else play so I can stop trolling the child??

[Kate]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

I don't think it's a great idea for Marmot to do something someone else already did, then proclaim 'anyone who pushes me or Sean as wolf is wolf' and for us to fall for that. I was more pingy about Marmot doing this early vote thing until Sean then turned around and tried to push neon for doing what Marmot said we shouldn't do. Ya know?

Your post has the penumbra of a Sean/Marmot w/w read. Do you think it makes sense for two wolves to lock votes on different people super early into D1?

No, do you

[Seanzie]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

I don't think it's a great idea for Marmot to do something someone else already did, then proclaim 'anyone who pushes me or Sean as wolf is wolf' and for us to fall for that. I was more pingy about Marmot doing this early vote thing until Sean then turned around and tried to push neon for doing what Marmot said we shouldn't do. Ya know?

Your post has the penumbra of a Sean/Marmot w/w read. Do you think it makes sense for two wolves to lock votes on different people super early into D1?

No, do you

No. That's why we did it. To trick you into thinking we're town by doing something that'd make no sense as wolves. We're good like that.

[Kate]

pe·num·bra
/pəˈnəmbrə/
Learn to pronounce
noun
the partially shaded outer region of the shadow cast by an opaque object.

My new favorite word.

[Kate]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

I don't think it's a great idea for Marmot to do something someone else already did, then proclaim 'anyone who pushes me or Sean as wolf is wolf' and for us to fall for that. I was more pingy about Marmot doing this early vote thing until Sean then turned around and tried to push neon for doing what Marmot said we shouldn't do. Ya know?

Your post has the penumbra of a Sean/Marmot w/w read. Do you think it makes sense for two wolves to lock votes on different people super early into D1?

No, do you

No. That's why we did it. To trick you into thinking we're town by doing something that'd make no sense as wolves. We're good like that.

Super good tbh.

[DrWilgy]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

[Seanzie]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

Digging early maximizes the chance of getting a power role for either alignment, so the eagerness is NAI.

[Kate]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

I'll start this off by saying I read the rules 3x before I even understood what mayyy be going on. So yes, I've read them.

Don't the wolves only know 3 empty spots? Did I miss something showing they have more info than that?

[Seanzie]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

I'll start this off by saying I read the rules 3x before I even understood what mayyy be going on. So yes, I've read them.

Don't the wolves only know 3 empty spots? Did I miss something showing they have more info than that?

Scotty updated the setup. The wolves also have some info about where the lizard is.

[Kate]

Oh, well that's a lizard of a different color...

[Seanzie]

Oh, well that's a lizard of a different color...

No, the lizard is yellow... with spots.

[pyxxy]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

Digging early maximizes the chance of getting a power role for either alignment, so the eagerness is NAI.

Why does it maximize the chance?

[pyxxy]

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

Votes are not changeable in the poll.

You have to dig in the same post as your vote

Ture, although I don't have to dig today.

I probably should have waited though, pyxxxy made a good point that digging early is pro-town in order to give the powers to the townies.

I don't know if you're allowed to dig in a separate post from you vote? You might be SOL.

@/GM: can people dig in a separate post from their vote?

Specifically my point was that I think digging is pro-town after D1. I think. I wrote that very late at night. And now Seanzie has me wondering if I missed something.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

Only if you are Level 0

[Kate]

@Scotty when the items are found will they be announced to the thread?

[S~V~S]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

I'll start this off by saying I read the rules 3x before I even understood what mayyy be going on. So yes, I've read them.

Don't the wolves only know 3 empty spots? Did I miss something showing they have more info than that?

Now see, I thought it was more than that. If it's only 3 squares, or the location of the lizard, what does this 12 squares mean? I'm a bit confuzzled re this.

At top of D2, Caveman and Zero will each learn the location of the cop check and the tracker, respectively, if available.

Kate Barlow starts the game knowing 3 locations- one containing the vig shot, one containing nothing, and one containing the yellow-spotted lizard- but won’t know which is which.

At the top of D1 I will provide the Mafia with 12 random plots- one of which will have the Yellow Spotted Lizard.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

Only if you are Level 0

I vote you every game and the fact I can't do that here without being locked in is sad

[Kate]

He posted something in the landing strip about a change to the mafias awareness of empty slots or summat. Hang in I'll get it.

[Kate]

Screenshot_20230114_151201_Discord.jpg (246.28 KiB) Viewed 887 times

[Kate]

So in theory, voting early for mafia could be advantageous as they can avoid those 12 plots.

[S~V~S]

That’s basically the same thing I quoted. I just quoted it from the thread.

So are those plots otherwise empty? If not it’s only really a small advantage. It’s kinda vague?

[Kate]

That’s basically the same thing I quoted. I just quoted it from the thread.

So are those plots otherwise empty? If not it’s only really a small advantage. It’s kinda vague?

Oh sorry, little lady.

[S~V~S]

In any case there’s a civ reason for a person digging day one as well, If you look at the roles.

[Kate]

Yea I don't know if the other 11 are empty or just random.

[Kate]

Edit: although it does say random

[Dennis]

Well voting early is beneficial to everyone so we can get powers before mafia

Problems arise when it means you have to stay locked into an empty vote just for that tiny chance, and that you have a better chance of hitting the instakill

So ultimately I guess it's kinda up to you if you want to take that risk or not. But I think most would agree holding off for a while until we have okay enough reads is optimal

[Kate]

In any case there’s a civ reason for a person digging day one as well, If you look at the roles.

True.

[Dennis]

I think the other holes in the 12 could have nothing or could have something

It's still an advantage, but not much. Just gives you a certified "this area over here MIGHT kill you so stay away from there"

[S~V~S]

Edit: although it does say random

Yeah, vague lol. Tricksy hosts be tricksy.

I plan to not wait till the last minute to vote, but hope to vote for a reason, although Day One can be a crapshoot without the digging complication.

Gonna reread to see what I missed by going out for a few hours.

[S~V~S]

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

Votes are not changeable in the poll.

You have to dig in the same post as your vote

Ture, although I don't have to dig today.

I probably should have waited though, pyxxxy made a good point that digging early is pro-town in order to give the powers to the townies.

I don't know if you're allowed to dig in a separate post from you vote? You might be SOL.

@/GM: can people dig in a separate post from their vote?

Specifically my point was that I think digging is pro-town after D1. I think. I wrote that very late at night. And now Seanzie has me wondering if I missed something.

The host said "this must be submitted WITH your vote in the same post during the day"

So yeah, if you want to dig, you can only submit it with your vote.

[Sabiplz]

I'm gay nya

[fingersplints]

Okay yeah I'm definitely just weird for reading setups

Good to know

Nah, I wouldn’t say that. I’ve know many players who read thoroughly and ask the hosts lots of questions about the roles and what not. People play differently and to me, that’s what makes the game most interesting.

As the say, you do you!

[Seanzie]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

Digging early maximizes the chance of getting a power role for either alignment, so the eagerness is NAI.

Why does it maximize the chance?

tldr: since I didn't dig the hole I knew was empty, the remaining 35 holes are a little more likely to be empty than the 35 I choose from.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I didn't completely work out the math, so it is possible I am overlooking something, but my intuition strongly suggests that digging first maximizes the chance. To explain, consider a simpler situation with three holes, one PR and just two people, both of whom are VT, VT1 and VT2.

VT1 digs first, and won't select the hole they know is empty, so has a 1/2 chance of getting the PR.

Now let's look at VT2. WIth probability 1/2 VT1 hit VT2's empty spot, so VT2 randomly chooses from the other two spots and VT2 has probability 1/2 of getting the PR, so this situation contributes 1/4 probability of VT2 getting a PR. The second situation to consider is that with probability 1/2 VT1 misses VT2's empty spot. In this case, VT1 must have gotten the PR, so VT2 has 0 chance of getting the PR.

Thus, with 3 holes, 2 VTs and 1 PR, the one who digs first has probability 1/2, while the other has probability 1/4 of getting the PR. Twice as likely.

With more holes, the differences in probabilities are significantly less than this, and it is worth noting that digging first also maximizes the probability of getting lizardead. Also, I didn't think too hard about how the people with extra powers or the mafia knowledge affects things, but I think it is still likely that digging first maximizes the chances of getting a PR.

This is a little like a backwards version of the goat and car probability puzzle (being someone who studies probability theory, you'd think I'd know the name of this super famous puzzle off the top of my head...).

[Seanzie]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

Only if you are Level 0

I've dug a hole, so I'm underground. I'm level -1.

[fingersplints]

Of the group of townreads I mentioned, the two that I think I could be wrong on are:

Sean: yeah he did the same thing as I did, but I do think it's in Sean's wolf range to do that.
pyxxxy: all of her discussion has been mech-related thus far, and wolves hiding behind mech discussion as their primary content early on isn't uncommon.

^ this

Marmot - solid town read this game. I even did a brief (less than 3 minute) comparison to a previous wolf game just to confirm, and I feel pretty confident about this

[Seanzie]

So in theory, voting early for mafia could be advantageous as they can avoid those 12 plots.

I am fairly certain that digging early is advantageous to anyone, but the 12 plot thing makes little difference since with only 13 people, even after eliminating those 12 plots and possibly 3 other plots mafia knows are empty, there are still 21 plots remaining, more than enough for the mafia to dig in while avoiding getting lizardead, even if all the townies dig in those 21 plots.

[fingersplints]

@Marmot can you detail your Splints read for me?

That entry honestly felt the most off. It was very little motivation and an excuse for not engaging in mechanical talk.

Very little motivation sounds pretty standard for me.