Cartomancy [Game Over]

[sig]

I’ve got an issue with the NK argument since we’ve got so little data there.

Rondo was a universal town read so that one makes sense

Neon was an accident sk that makes sense

Sean I’ll reread his last phase and see what the legacy was there but he was also a town read by almost everyone.

Both of those kills makes sense especially with the number of protective cards floating around.

[robyn]

@sig there are worlds where you are town because of porscha's vote, i'd like you to reread all of d5 again but more closely, you will not be voting tutuu if you do

and if you are town then porscha is outed mafia from your point of view

[sig]

@sig there are worlds where you are town because of porscha's vote, i'd like you to reread all of d5 again but more closely, you will not be voting tutuu if you do

and if you are town then porscha is outed mafia from your point of view

I’ll give it or attempt to give it a reread + iso Mac but why aren’t we voting for creature if he was saved?

[DrWilgy]

Actually footage of this game.

Asuka losing WrestleMania 34 caused an emotional scar that I'll never recover from.

[Sabiplz]

I mean we can always vote the outted wolf creature but lucy and her pride want to dictate the game instead during limlo

[Sabiplz]

What is the point of voting outside of creature today? Lucy is chasing her pride read instead of quite literally outted wolf.

[Sabiplz]

Anyway last post of dayphase. I said what I had to say. I'm voting for the outted wolf while yall chase your pride reads.

[Bereft]

@sig there are worlds where you are town because of porscha's vote, i'd like you to reread all of d5 again but more closely, you will not be voting tutuu if you do

and if you are town then porscha is outed mafia from your point of view

My new question is, explained the crap that happened yesterday from a POV where Sig/Creature town and Mac/SPF mafia.

[tutuu]

@sig there are worlds where you are town because of porscha's vote, i'd like you to reread all of d5 again but more closely, you will not be voting tutuu if you do

and if you are town then porscha is outed mafia from your point of view

My new question is, explained the crap that happened yesterday from a POV where Sig/Creature town and Mac/SPF mafia.

OH I FINALLY GOT WHY WOLVES THIUGHT THEY WIN

They pile up on town creature. Play the stop chop card

Frame creature to be zealot. Chop him.

Would be 6v5. Then they just blitz, they have a zealot, they have mac and spf daytalk, they got everything

Was that it? Lmao

@sig for you too (explanation of events in which creature is town)

also @lucy @Jackofhearts2005 you two seem really good with using words and convincing ppl can you please make sure porscha is convinced and acknowledges the situation and stuff (i wrote like 10 posts at her but idk how good i did) (like dont antagonize her and write her off as outed mafia, lets be 100% sure we win and just be patient with her and get her to not vote me pls)

also dont worry lucy my Queen im not posting again until post cap lift. u told me so assertively "stop posting tutuu" like how can i not obey your command blush emoje

(im at 73/100)

[Jackofhearts2005]

To summarize.

The No Hang means someone played the Judgement card that they received the night before the hang.

The person who received the Judgement card is within Mac/SPF/ ????

And ??? Better be Seanzie or smth otherwise I will flip out.

So since a Judgement card was used, one of Mac/SPF/??? played it.

the part that outs spf and sabi in particular is the interference that i believe occurred, they were very quick to call it me getting roleblocked (too quickly) and mac/spf/sabi used the particular arguments that suggest tmi that i was not telling the truth

1) argument being "lying and FPSing"
2) hail marry by me on personal reads
3) egotistical play

now the problem here is that all of these arguments were presuming the axiom that i was not telling the truth, something too quickly assumed and not actually established. these arguments are all ones that directly cater to what mafia believe happened because they believed i was successfully interfered with mechanically

they believed i was fps'ing so the arguments would work, the arguments were off in that they assumed too much and tried gaslighting me too hard in the face of actual mech

because there is one in mac/spf that clearly implies the other due to threadstate, NK's and everything that has gone on along with my personal reads

100%

With the caviet that I often turn out to be wrong on 100% reads (including Alison in this game), I am currently 100% sure that Mac, SPF and Sabi are all wolves off this exact reasoning.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Anyway last post of dayphase. I said what I had to say. I'm voting for the outted wolf while yall chase your pride reads.

Ignoring that you can't be off wagon at lylo and still win as town...

Creature survived for one of two reasons.

1) Creature is the zealot -> yeeting him again loses the game for the town -> you shouldn't want to yeet Creature again

2) Creature isn't the zealot and he was protected by the judgement card yesterday -> Mac or SPF is confirmed wolf -> Mac and SPF are not thunderdoming and are holding onto mutual townreads in spite of each having the equivalent of a red check on each other -> both are wolves -> you shouldn't have a strong desire to yeet Creature over SPF/Mac

There's no logical reason for town Sabi to do this. Sabi is flat outted. Sabi has done things like this a lot this game, where she has a strong opinion about where she should vote based on reasoning that doesn't make sense. She has also spent a lot of time "sheeping" Mac, who is confirmed wolf.

@Dennis @sig @Porscha @DrWilgy

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like...it doesn't make sense to say "we should yeet Creature because he's not the Zealot, which means he was saved by the judgement card, which means SPF and Mac are wolves.....but I refuse to vote for SPF or Mac."

That's wolf nonsense.

[Jackofhearts2005]

OH I FINALLY GOT WHY WOLVES THIUGHT THEY WIN

They pile up on town creature. Play the stop chop card

Frame creature to be zealot. Chop him.

Would be 6v5. Then they just blitz, they have a zealot, they have mac and spf daytalk, they got everything

Was that it? Lmao

This idea had come to mind and I was debating whether or not to bring it up.

Things to consider

1) What were SPF, Mac and Sabi during yesterday? What was their goal?

2) They didn't have to choose Creature. They could have used the judgement card at EOD no matter who was a wolf. They could frame any townie as the zealot, making that townie super ineffective and on the off chance four wolves got yeeted, we'd likely yeet that townie ftl. Or they could "frame" any wolf as the zealot, making us yeet out of order and guaranteeing another no yeet day. The only player who this wouldn't work with was the actual zealot. We'd still waste a day phase but we wouldn't be fooled and the judgement card would essentially get burned.

Getting that big pile on Creature seemed difficult to me. In hindsight, it was because I was arguing likely incorrect reads (Tutuu wolf) and because I was fighting against townies like Falcon and Seanzie who wanted to yeet a wolf (SPF).

But what was the wolfteam doing? Were they trying to yeet Sig? Not yeet Sig? Distance? Distract? What tf was going on with them yesterday within the framework of many of my reads flipping? I think that's important....and I'm totally not gonna look into it yet.

Gth, I'm not sold on Creature being town but yeah, there is this outside possibility that he is. I think he's been outside his town meta but otoh, SPF pushed there pretty consistently.

[MacDougall]

I didn't have anything to do with the creature pile up though. I was tunneling sig not creature. Then sig got all townie. Like... just read posts jeez.

[MacDougall]

To summarize.

The No Hang means someone played the Judgement card that they received the night before the hang.

The person who received the Judgement card is within Mac/SPF/ ????

And ??? Better be Seanzie or smth otherwise I will flip out.

So since a Judgement card was used, one of Mac/SPF/??? played it.

the part that outs spf and sabi in particular is the interference that i believe occurred, they were very quick to call it me getting roleblocked (too quickly) and mac/spf/sabi used the particular arguments that suggest tmi that i was not telling the truth

1) argument being "lying and FPSing"
2) hail marry by me on personal reads
3) egotistical play

now the problem here is that all of these arguments were presuming the axiom that i was not telling the truth, something too quickly assumed and not actually established. these arguments are all ones that directly cater to what mafia believe happened because they believed i was successfully interfered with mechanically

they believed i was fps'ing so the arguments would work, the arguments were off in that they assumed too much and tried gaslighting me too hard in the face of actual mech

because there is one in mac/spf that clearly implies the other due to threadstate, NK's and everything that has gone on along with my personal reads

The Judgement card is day playable. I asked the host. Maybe you should have too before you FPSed.

Also it's not hard to tell you were lying and TMI doesn't have to factor into it. I know you are because I read my role PM you five head fuck.

[MacDougall]

What is the point of voting outside of creature today? Lucy is chasing her pride read instead of quite literally outted wolf.

There is a chance Creature is just the Zealot and doing so loses the game.

On the other hand Tutuu is literally naked mafia and Jack and Wilgy aren't far behind.

[robyn]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

[MacDougall]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Because I am town. Holy shit how hard is it.

You are saying I am mech scum. I am literally town Ergo I know you are full of shit.

Literally Higgs Boson level equation needed here.

[Jackofhearts2005]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Because he's wolves with SPF and the only way a red peek in Mac and SPF doesn't result in a wolf yeet is if you just pretend the peek doesn't exist.

[Jackofhearts2005]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Because I am town. Holy shit how hard is it.

You are saying I am mech scum. I am literally town Ergo I know you are full of shit.

Literally Higgs Boson level equation needed here.

If you were town, you would take a red peek in Seanzie/Mac/SPF as a red peek on SPF and vote there. Ya outted.

[MacDougall]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Also Bereft literally said in their post it was played at night and you didn't clarify it was day hence me correcting you. Before you find some one in a million wrinkle how this adds to your confirmation biased brain-dead solve.

[robyn]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Also Bereft literally said in their post it was played at night and you didn't clarify it was day hence me correcting you. Before you find some one in a million wrinkle how this adds to your confirmation biased brain-dead solve.

you played the mafia alignment well, don't be anymore of a fucking dick about it

[MacDougall]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Because I am town. Holy shit how hard is it.

You are saying I am mech scum. I am literally town Ergo I know you are full of shit.

Literally Higgs Boson level equation needed here.

If you were town, you would take a red peek in Seanzie/Mac/SPF as a red peek on SPF and vote there. Ya outted.

If I was mafia I would, actually. What the fuck is the mafia utility of not cutting bait here?

I am backing my read on SPF over a known FPSer's loose mech shit in a game with redirects where she has been outed town PR since day 1.

I'm not posting again until end of day so I don't precap again. I do hope Lucy decides to stop throwing at some point.

[MacDougall]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Also Bereft literally said in their post it was played at night and you didn't clarify it was day hence me correcting you. Before you find some one in a million wrinkle how this adds to your confirmation biased brain-dead solve.

you played the mafia alignment well, don't be anymore of a fucking dick about it

I'm town and you are going to look like an absolute moron.

[MacDougall]

The Judgement card is day playable

you don't think i know?

why do you insist i'm FPSing?

Because he's wolves with SPF and the only way a red peek in Mac and SPF doesn't result in a wolf yeet is if you just pretend the peek doesn't exist.

Notice how both Jack and Tutuu are doing exactly the same thing. Neither are thinking critically or reading this properly but you can't see this Lucy because you're confirmation biased by bad mech and think their perspective is normal when the correct perspective to have is scepticism and doubt.

[Creature]

Oh shit reading today's internet makes me so angry

[MacDougall]

Porscha who has fallen off a cliff
Jack
Wilgy
Tutuu
Dennis

This is my final solve.

Wow that was really easy. I mean yeah. The team is basically within 6 people, zealot within 2.

Not Bereft is now voting alongside nearly his entire POE.

[Dennis]

Anyway last post of dayphase. I said what I had to say. I'm voting for the outted wolf while yall chase your pride reads.

Ignoring that you can't be off wagon at lylo and still win as town...

Creature survived for one of two reasons.

1) Creature is the zealot -> yeeting him again loses the game for the town -> you shouldn't want to yeet Creature again

2) Creature isn't the zealot and he was protected by the judgement card yesterday -> Mac or SPF is confirmed wolf -> Mac and SPF are not thunderdoming and are holding onto mutual townreads in spite of each having the equivalent of a red check on each other -> both are wolves -> you shouldn't have a strong desire to yeet Creature over SPF/Mac

There's no logical reason for town Sabi to do this. Sabi is flat outted. Sabi has done things like this a lot this game, where she has a strong opinion about where she should vote based on reasoning that doesn't make sense. She has also spent a lot of time "sheeping" Mac, who is confirmed wolf.

@Dennis @sig @Porscha @DrWilgy

Please be respectful of people's pronouns

Not making it big to shame you but I want everyone to see the message

For the most part, I agree. I still am not the most comfortable with saying Mac is confirm mafia, because mechanically we are only sure there is one between the two of them and to be perfectly honest I townread (past tense) both of them before Lucy came in. But yeah Sabi is making me raised_eyebrow.jpg a lot atm

If jack flips town how does this affect your view on Sabi? Also why are you choosing us 4 to ping with a lot of your posts?

[robyn]

let's just say i have a bad feeling

Falcon
Dennis
Porscha
SPF
Seanzie

Final guess lol.

mac do u think the vote will go through today?

@Dennis vote spf and iso me and jack today, if you have any questions beyond that then ask however i only have 25 posts left

@Bereft @sig @Porscha do you still question my mech?

@staypositivefriend @MacDougall same to you, explain these posts if my mech is bad or that i'm FPS'ing or that i'm confused or some shit

[Creature]

Is deadline today or tomorrow? Can't see it in the poll.

[Porscha]

@Porscha @sig sorry for all the pings, i hope it doesnt come off like im yelling or strangling you. im just invested coz i dont wanna randomly lose like this

can you please explain to me why you think trusting your own townread on macdougall is a better route to go for, than trusting the (both personal and potentially mechanical) scumread on macdougall by an innocent child lucy?

do you think lucy is dumb and doesn't understand how the game or her role works? u think that her being dumb is a more likely scenario than your townread on mac being wrong?

I dont know how you can think I think lucy is "dumb" based on what I have said today. That is clearly not the issue at play here
I'm also aware she difference checked me and sig. Obviously I'm not surprised sig ended up wolf but lucy also very specifically put our difference check as the dead last part of the solve due to the zealot mechanic so I'm not going to sit around and waste time on that today when we have a much bigger issue at hand
I voted spf and I'm still open to SPF being a wolf but try to think about it from my perspective
You likely wont be able to convince me today that mac is wolfing
Which leaves me between only you and spf
But the solve doesnt fucking make sense !!!
So what if mac is correct that some of Lucy's reads got messed with? I know lucy is confident but if there are cards that can influence who she sees at night for example then she might not know of another card affecting what she sees
And since i am unable to entertain a wolf mac world, all i can do is try to help him figure out if and where he may be wrong, which is what I've done today

Whatever I'm not caught up I wont be until tomorrow probs cuz I gotta work late and then hit up a friends birthday. We will figure this out

[Porscha]

let's just say i have a bad feeling

Falcon
Dennis
Porscha
SPF
Seanzie

Final guess lol.

mac do u think the vote will go through today?

@Dennis vote spf and iso me and jack today, if you have any questions beyond that then ask however i only have 25 posts left

@Bereft @sig @Porscha do you still question my mech?

@staypositivefriend @MacDougall same to you, explain these posts if my mech is bad or that i'm FPS'ing or that i'm confused or some shit

I am uncertain if we can fully trust that your mech has not been tampered with based on individual reads. This is what is causing me to yield

[Porscha]

Like I assume finding the zealot is a lot easier for lucy than trying to ascertain if/who used a specific card at what time so unless something comes up to change that perspective I'm ride or die on that part of the mech solve and it makes sense to me. Everything else does not make sense

[MacDougall]

Okay I just read all the roles and the only world SPF is not outed is if Creature is literally Zealot and drew the Judgement card but didn't use it.

[MacDougall]

Okay I just read all the roles and the only world SPF is not outed is if Creature is literally Zealot and drew the Judgement card but didn't use it.

Which, if SPF was mafia, is the argument she would be making imo.

[MacDougall]

Btw

Temperance - Balance, Moderation, Patience, Purpose. If the player who draws this card chooses to play it, a number of living civilians equal to the number of living mafia members will be randomly chosen. The posts made by each during the following day phase will be added up and compared. If the totals are balanced within 5 posts of each other, the player who drew the Temperance card will be granted one alignment check. If they are not in balance within 5 posts of each other, the player will only be told how many total players were tallied. As this card has no useful purpose for the mafia, if a mafia member draws it, their night kill becomes a strongman kill for the following night.

Town should probably try to coordinate to ensure this card is playable moving forward.

[robyn]

mac, vote spf and trust me please. read my arguments and fucking assume i'm a the five head that's correct

@Porscha vote spf, you haven't, iso jack and me today for your catchup on mech if you are still confused and questions etc

[robyn]

mac, vote spf and trust me please. read my arguments and fucking assume i'm a the five head that's correct

i switched off you and onto spf BECAUSE spf/sabi outed themselves and you are town in some worlds

[MacDougall]

mac, vote spf and trust me please. read my arguments and fucking assume i'm a the five head that's correct

@Porscha vote spf, you haven't, iso jack and me today for your catchup on mech if you are still confused and questions etc

You are certain Creature cannot be Zealot. Please eli5 this to me.

[robyn]

mac, vote spf and trust me please. read my arguments and fucking assume i'm a the five head that's correct

@Porscha vote spf, you haven't, iso jack and me today for your catchup on mech if you are still confused and questions etc

You are certain Creature cannot be Zealot. Please eli5 this to me.

one in sig/porscha is zealot

[MacDougall]

the oracle is both confirmed town and has mechanical info that the rest of the lobby does not that

we have to follow my order of operations, or we lose, there are mechanics in play which make it so

i can pretty much chain 3 mafia

So why Mac

[robyn]

I could swap Sabi for idk Porscha. I’m scum reading Sabi off that one post alone. Wilgy could also potentially be town.

I don’t think there’s a world with town Tutuu or town Creature. I’m very concerned that one is just the zealot and we’ll have a shit time after getting essentially no yeet today. But there’s nothing we can do about that possibility.

Yeah there is. If there's a Zealot it's only Creature or Tutuu so vote out sig.

I very strongly think Creature is not the zealot. I'd bet my life on it.

Why

I have my reasons.

@MacDougall i suggest reading d5 again because EVERYTHING is there in the thread, i'm not incompetent and i'm playing correctly and spf/sabi are mafia in every world and we know who zealot is tomorrow

i've explained literally everything, you simply must take the position of me being a five head that isn't fps-ing and mafia being outed fmpov

i went off you for a reason, that is the most important part, i am a more than rational actor and you should view me as such

[sig]

My only issue right now (still mid reread) is that the wagonenomics don’t make sense atm.

[staypositivefriend]

I hate how I’m being forced to consider worlds where Tutuu is town but I kinda think in a world where Mac is a wolf and SPF is town and SPF is like “I trust Mac so much that I’m going to ignore a claimed red peek on him and say that Lucy just doesn’t understand mech” then it’s not really my fault if we misyeet SPF or if we misyeet today because SPF won’t vote with the rest of the town.

That is, I can assume SPF wolf because if SPF is town, nothing I do matters and the loss isn’t my fault.

@Jackofhearts2005 if you are town, then it actually is your fault for voting me. it's also clear that you are not reading my posts today because you still think that i'm claiming that lucy "doesn't understand mechanics" when i am actually saying that i believe she is being dishonest about them

this is because lucy has claimed all of the following to be true today:

1. that the person who played the judgement card had to be on the creature wagon

2. that me/mac have to be W/W

3. that me/mac might not actually be W/W

it's not possible for all 3 of those things to be true, but she has claimed a mechanical basis for all 3 of those things being true throughout this dayphase, which means she has demonstrably NOT TOLD THE TRUTH about AT LEAST ONE THING, which means that there is legitimate reason to believe that she is not being 100% upfront about the information that she has

if youre town then stop acting like it's my fault for believing that lucy might not be totally forthcoming about her information when it is proven that she has already lied today

[staypositivefriend]

Okay I just read all the roles and the only world SPF is not outed is if Creature is literally Zealot and drew the Judgement card but didn't use it.

but yeah sure maybe im just bad and woflsiding and mac is mafia regardless of anything else because the reasoning in this post is bullshit and mac has already explained why it is bullshit multiple times today

[staypositivefriend]

[VOTE: creature] aubergine

awful game

[staypositivefriend]

when i flip town today then i want everyone to ignore lucy for the rest for the rest of the game tbh, i dont even care if mac is mafia

[sig]

If we say one of Mac or SPF is mafia, then let’s for shits and giggles assume Porsche is zealot that’s 2 mafia members.

Who are the other 3? I know I’m not mafia, I’m confident Mac isn’t mafia. So that means the second counter wagon which is tuutuu only has 2 mafia on it. So again where are the other 3?

Okay let’s say Creature is mafia (maybe zealot) then what Sabie and Dennis? Both of whom are voting off wagon atm when they’ve got a great argument to vote on wagon against Lucy with the battle lines.

I guess we do have 24 hours mafia could be playing the game here by waiting until the last second, but that’s where my pause is.

I also don’t trust Jack or tuutuu at all. That’s the orher pause

[Creature]

Annoying

[sig]

[VOTE: creature] aubergine

awful game

Why did you switch off tuutuu? Why do you think Creatuee is a better wagon