Holes Mafia {TOWN WINS}

[Sabiplz]

Mech talk going over my head

[Seanzie]

That’s basically the same thing I quoted. I just quoted it from the thread.

So are those plots otherwise empty? If not it’s only really a small advantage. It’s kinda vague?

My guess is that 1 is a lizard and the other 11 are randomly chosen, could be empty, could not be. If they were all empty, mafia would be given a HUGE advantage (avoid certain death, plus have very high chances of getting the PRs). By giving them 1 lizard, 11 randomly chosen, it just makes it so that mafia can dig without worrying about getting lizardead (which I think is a bit more than a "small advantage")

[Kate]

Yeah, seems so.

So far Kate and SVS are town.

Pyxxy is null.

Seanzie is wolf lean.

Thoughts on the good doctor?

[Sabiplz]

I hope I get lizard

[Kate]

Kinda weird that Seanzie did that little vote thing but I think it was funny so I'm okay with it

What do you think was funny about it?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I want to vote Sean right now lol

Is this the wolf Marmot was looking for?

Only if you are Level 0

I've dug a hole, so I'm underground. I'm level -1.

I laughed way too hard at this

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I hope I get lizard

Keep it as a pet

[pyxxy]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

Digging early maximizes the chance of getting a power role for either alignment, so the eagerness is NAI.

Why does it maximize the chance?

tldr: since I didn't dig the hole I knew was empty, the remaining 35 holes are a little more likely to be empty than the 35 I choose from.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I didn't completely work out the math, so it is possible I am overlooking something, but my intuition strongly suggests that digging first maximizes the chance. To explain, consider a simpler situation with three holes, one PR and just two people, both of whom are VT, VT1 and VT2.

VT1 digs first, and won't select the hole they know is empty, so has a 1/2 chance of getting the PR.

Now let's look at VT2. WIth probability 1/2 VT1 hit VT2's empty spot, so VT2 randomly chooses from the other two spots and VT2 has probability 1/2 of getting the PR, so this situation contributes 1/4 probability of VT2 getting a PR. The second situation to consider is that with probability 1/2 VT1 misses VT2's empty spot. In this case, VT1 must have gotten the PR, so VT2 has 0 chance of getting the PR.

Thus, with 3 holes, 2 VTs and 1 PR, the one who digs first has probability 1/2, while the other has probability 1/4 of getting the PR. Twice as likely.

With more holes, the differences in probabilities are significantly less than this, and it is worth noting that digging first also maximizes the probability of getting lizardead. Also, I didn't think too hard about how the people with extra powers or the mafia knowledge affects things, but I think it is still likely that digging first maximizes the chances of getting a PR.

This is a little like a backwards version of the goat and car probability puzzle (being someone who studies probability theory, you'd think I'd know the name of this super famous puzzle off the top of my head...).

ah see I think you knew that you dug a hole that wasn't the one you picked to be empty

but I didn't know that

and if I maybe guess that the theoretical first player is digging their guaranteed empty hole in order to guarantee making D2 (caveat DK / NK), then I have better odds of getting a PR (and lizardead) by waiting for the first or even first N players to dig their scaredy holes

[S~V~S]

That’s basically the same thing I quoted. I just quoted it from the thread.

So are those plots otherwise empty? If not it’s only really a small advantage. It’s kinda vague?

My guess is that 1 is a lizard and the other 11 are randomly chosen, could be empty, could not be. If they were all empty, mafia would be given a HUGE advantage (avoid certain death, plus have very high chances of getting the PRs). By giving them 1 lizard, 11 randomly chosen, it just makes it so that mafia can dig without worrying about getting lizardead (which I think is a bit more than a "small advantage")

That makes sense, actually.

And when I said "small advantage" I meant a small advantage in voting super early as opposed to later, not overall in the game. They won't *gain* by voting early, unless they are very unlucky and all the lizard free spots get taken out early.

[Kate]

I AM TOWN!



In a word, I was too cowardly to do what I knew to be right, as I'd been too cowardly to avoid doing what I knew to be wrong

Huh?

[S~V~S]

I hope I get lizard

Keep it as a pet

I used to have an Asian Water Dragon. Reptiles make good pets, especially if you live a busy life, they aren't as needy as cats/dogs.

[Kate]

hey soz team I'm a bit busy atm... I'll try to make some time

What's a soz team?

[pyxxy]

hey soz team I'm a bit busy atm... I'll try to make some time

What's a soz team?

soz = sorry

[Seanzie]

Aye, I think it's weird that Sean knew to dig but didn't know that votes were locked.

Like, how much of a slip is it to try to swing for the early power roles?

Yeah, don't really have an explanation. I even remembered all the other things mentioned in the bolded "Important:" thing, but was not aware votes were locked. Clearly I am a great reader

Why would trying to get a power role be a slip?

It's the eagerness.

Scum starts with more data than town SoD1. Figured it may be better for wolves to leverage it while it's available.

Digging early maximizes the chance of getting a power role for either alignment, so the eagerness is NAI.

Why does it maximize the chance?

tldr: since I didn't dig the hole I knew was empty, the remaining 35 holes are a little more likely to be empty than the 35 I choose from.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I didn't completely work out the math, so it is possible I am overlooking something, but my intuition strongly suggests that digging first maximizes the chance. To explain, consider a simpler situation with three holes, one PR and just two people, both of whom are VT, VT1 and VT2.

VT1 digs first, and won't select the hole they know is empty, so has a 1/2 chance of getting the PR.

Now let's look at VT2. WIth probability 1/2 VT1 hit VT2's empty spot, so VT2 randomly chooses from the other two spots and VT2 has probability 1/2 of getting the PR, so this situation contributes 1/4 probability of VT2 getting a PR. The second situation to consider is that with probability 1/2 VT1 misses VT2's empty spot. In this case, VT1 must have gotten the PR, so VT2 has 0 chance of getting the PR.

Thus, with 3 holes, 2 VTs and 1 PR, the one who digs first has probability 1/2, while the other has probability 1/4 of getting the PR. Twice as likely.

With more holes, the differences in probabilities are significantly less than this, and it is worth noting that digging first also maximizes the probability of getting lizardead. Also, I didn't think too hard about how the people with extra powers or the mafia knowledge affects things, but I think it is still likely that digging first maximizes the chances of getting a PR.

This is a little like a backwards version of the goat and car probability puzzle (being someone who studies probability theory, you'd think I'd know the name of this super famous puzzle off the top of my head...).

ah see I think you knew that you dug a hole that wasn't the one you picked to be empty

but I didn't know that

and if I maybe guess that the theoretical first player is digging their guaranteed empty hole in order to guarantee making D2 (caveat DK / NK), then I have better odds of getting a PR (and lizardead) by waiting for the first or even first N players to dig their scaredy holes

I do not assume my fellow townies' bellies to be the same color as the lizard.

[Kate]

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

Votes are not changeable in the poll.

Care to elaborate on reasons why?

Done.

Is it though?

[Dennis]

Kinda weird that Seanzie did that little vote thing but I think it was funny so I'm okay with it

What do you think was funny about it?

I meant literally like haha it's funny, not like it's weird or sus

Thought it was silly he immediately locked his vote in

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I hope I get lizard

Keep it as a pet

I used to have an Asian Water Dragon. Reptiles make good pets, especially if you live a busy life, they aren't as needy as cats/dogs.

Jealous!

[MacDougall]

hey soz team I'm a bit busy atm... I'll try to make some time

What's a soz team?

soz = sorry

yeah sorry lol

[falcon45ca]

I AM TOWN!



In a word, I was too cowardly to do what I knew to be right, as I'd been too cowardly to avoid doing what I knew to be wrong

Huh?

I think it's a quote from Maxim...maybe Sports Illustrated

[MacDougall]

Yeah, seems so.

So far Kate and SVS are town.

Pyxxy is null.

Seanzie is wolf lean.

Thoughts on the good doctor?

Feels OK? Do you think otherwise?

[Kate]

Mech talk going over my head

I think you're better at mech than you give yourself credit for.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I hate mech

[Kate]

Kinda weird that Seanzie did that little vote thing but I think it was funny so I'm okay with it

What do you think was funny about it?

I meant literally like haha it's funny, not like it's weird or sus

Thought it was silly he immediately locked his vote in

I know what kind of funny you meant. What did you find it haha funny?

[Kate]

Yeah, seems so.

So far Kate and SVS are town.

Pyxxy is null.

Seanzie is wolf lean.

Thoughts on the good doctor?

Feels OK? Do you think otherwise?

Not particularly, no. But right now I'm in a dark room with a napping baby so I can't check my notes

[falcon45ca]

I hate mech

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I hate mech

I also hate those kinds of mechs

[pyxxy]

I hate mech

I love you

[falcon45ca]

I hate mech

I also hate those kinds of mechs

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: neon] aubergine

[Seanzie]

So, Falcon's mafia.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Intresting choice.

[pyxxy]

[VOTE: neon] aubergine

@falcon45ca have you read the setup? Or the thread up to this point?

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: neon] aubergine

@falcon45ca have you read the setup? Or the thread up to this point?

Pffffft, not a chance

[falcon45ca]

So, Falcon's mafia.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

[VOTE: neon] aubergine

@falcon45ca have you read the setup? Or the thread up to this point?

Pffffft, not a chance

You can't move your vote...

[falcon45ca]

I haven't been Maf all year, I ain't about to start now

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine



Seems to work just fine

[Sabiplz]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine



Seems to work just fine

Only your first vote counts tho.

[Sabiplz]

Read the fucking set up

[falcon45ca]

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine



Seems to work just fine

Only your first vote counts tho.

Oh well, I never liked democracy anyways.



Benevolent dictatorship for the win baby

[falcon45ca]

Read the fucking set up

[Sabiplz]

Glad we have three wasted votes on:

Pyxxy
Wilgz
Neon

Mafia is will control the day kill if marmot, Seanzie and falcon are all town.

[falcon45ca]

Glad we have three wasted votes on:

Pyxxy
Wilgz
Neon

Mafia is will control the day kill if marmot, Seanzie and falcon are all town.

Why are they wasted? Do you have such firm TRs on Pyx, Wilgy & Neon?

[Sabiplz]

Glad we have three wasted votes on:

Pyxxy
Wilgz
Neon

Mafia is will control the day kill if marmot, Seanzie and falcon are all town.

Why are they wasted? Do you have such firm TRs on Pyx, Wilgy & Neon?

None of them are pinging me as scum. They are wasted because none of the votes are real because yall didn't read the set up

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I mean maybe Falcon thinks I'm scum because I hate mech and mechs.

[falcon45ca]

Glad we have three wasted votes on:

Pyxxy
Wilgz
Neon

Mafia is will control the day kill if marmot, Seanzie and falcon are all town.

Why are they wasted? Do you have such firm TRs on Pyx, Wilgy & Neon?

None of them are pinging me as scum. They are wasted because none of the votes are real because yall didn't read the set up

That does not follow. Like, you have no idea how many games I've won w/o reading the rules.



Monopoly for one, Super Mario World for another.

[Sabiplz]

Glad we have three wasted votes on:

Pyxxy
Wilgz
Neon

Mafia is will control the day kill if marmot, Seanzie and falcon are all town.

Why are they wasted? Do you have such firm TRs on Pyx, Wilgy & Neon?

None of them are pinging me as scum. They are wasted because none of the votes are real because yall didn't read the set up

That does not follow. Like, you have no idea how many games I've won w/o reading the rules.



Monopoly for one, Super Mario World for another.

OK and this is a different game with different mechs than usual

Super irresponsible

[falcon45ca]

I mean maybe Falcon thinks I'm scum because I hate mech and mechs.

Nah.



The words "Neon is Maf" appeared in my Alphagetti's this afternoon.

[pyxxy]

@Kate did you watch Holes growing up?

[falcon45ca]

Glad we have three wasted votes on:

Pyxxy
Wilgz
Neon

Mafia is will control the day kill if marmot, Seanzie and falcon are all town.

Why are they wasted? Do you have such firm TRs on Pyx, Wilgy & Neon?

None of them are pinging me as scum. They are wasted because none of the votes are real because yall didn't read the set up

That does not follow. Like, you have no idea how many games I've won w/o reading the rules.



Monopoly for one, Super Mario World for another.

OK and this is a different game with different mechs than usual

Super irresponsible