Summer Sh*t Day 5

[potentialsheltervet]

@Neon Where are you, POE wise? Narrow it down to three pls

Cool
Can you answer in non-GIF form?

[potentialsheltervet]

[VOTE: pyxxy ] aubergine

[pyxxy]

after that EOD I think I'm down to lock Dennis as town

and as is apparent by now, that makes Dennis the next nk *salutes*

Lul

Vote: Pyxxy

Look, I don't make the rules. No one is going to nk you before Dennis :/

Or would they

[pyxxy]

[VOTE: pyxxy ] aubergine

lmao not you too

[pyxxy]

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

[pyxxy]

also fyi EOD moved again

[pyxxy]

alright I'm out for today see y'all in 24 hours

I think you'll clear me if I just don't post

[Dennis]

I think all of those past 30 posts actually went into my brain and stole all of my thoughts minus the clearing me which I don't really follow still

My idea that the final mafia is just sig is growing and growing. Either way I kinda think we should kill him at this point because if we don't and we keep screwing up, we're stuck with him in limlo and then it's just a 50/50

[Dennis]

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

[Dennis]

Feels a bit like a shrug yeet but meh. Also, we should stop telling the mafia who to NK in the thread because now it's hard to read into the lemonfairy kill more than "3 people said she was obvitown" and if I did get NK'd, then there would be no analysis too

[Dennis]

Actually not so much a shrug yeet, but idk. Feels bad that he was absent but it's gonna be a liability in limlo

[sig]

I am here kinda and I see things are very sketchy hmm

[sig]

Feels a bit like a shrug yeet but meh. Also, we should stop telling the mafia who to NK in the thread because now it's hard to read into the lemonfairy kill more than "3 people said she was obvitown" and if I did get NK'd, then there would be no analysis too

Yea I’m pretty confident Dennis is the way to go just by his last three posts

[potentialsheltervet]

Feels a bit like a shrug yeet but meh. Also, we should stop telling the mafia who to NK in the thread because now it's hard to read into the lemonfairy kill more than "3 people said she was obvitown" and if I did get NK'd, then there would be no analysis too

Yea I’m pretty confident Dennis is the way to go just by his last three posts

...no
Did you catch the six/Dennis tie? Not really mafia behavior.
Pushing Dennis right now is weird.

[Dennis]

Feels a bit like a shrug yeet but meh. Also, we should stop telling the mafia who to NK in the thread because now it's hard to read into the lemonfairy kill more than "3 people said she was obvitown" and if I did get NK'd, then there would be no analysis too

Yea I’m pretty confident Dennis is the way to go just by his last three posts

...go on

Why do you think that

[Dennis]

Coming in and omgusing me isn't the best look in my opinion

[staypositivefriend]

@sig - what do u think of the reasons I gave to townread Dennis on the last page?

[staypositivefriend]

but honestly, full transparency, right now i am kind of feeling like the exact way to win the game is to eliminate me, pyxxy, and sig in whatever order. i struggle to see any of the other names being mafia right now, and my reasons to townread them feel good to me

so if anyone here thinks that im misclearing any of ted/neon/psv/dennis, then i really need you to speak up and help me see it

nope my only waver is PSV

if I had to order for myself:
Neon - towncore
Dennis - strong townread
ted - townread

and mostly this is a "how much have I played with someone" list

(but I suspect the last scum feels that Dennis is the most obv town, thus my guess earlier that he's next to go......home from the summer camp trip)

talk more about PSV? why is she a waver compared to your other townreads?

[staypositivefriend]

trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

i know things are rlly quiet today but i would super appreciate thoughts on any of the reads I gave her

[staypositivefriend]

here*

[staypositivefriend]

@tedxtr - wya?

[tedxtr]

Been on vacay since thursday, can be active tomorrow night euroland time but prolly gonna be tired then

[tedxtr]

Rn im in a headspace where a lot of the things you’re saying makes sense, but it just makes me realize maybe you’re painting the good image of misclears, but you aren’t offering the potential wolf on the plate

So maybe it means it’s you and that’s why there’s something missing

[staypositivefriend]

honestly I think that it is pyxxy right now

[staypositivefriend]

sig could be a wolf but he is showing a lack of any real self preservation intent by pushing on dennis

pyxxy had a progression on falcon throughout d1 and d2 that is very easy to see as a wolf awkwardly shifting their positioning once their other partner (seanzie) died, and his solving has felt the least sincere to me compared to my other townreads

so, willing to have my mind changed, willing to discuss it further, but that's where im at


that's the reason why I really want people to engage with my thoughts today, because if I'm wrong, I need help figuring out where

[tedxtr]

I think i agreed with one of your wallposts at some point

I’ll be re-reading when possible and see what i come up with

[tedxtr]

Sig being voted is ~probably a travesty

[tedxtr]

@pyxxy why are you voting sig?

[potentialsheltervet]

sig could be a wolf but he is showing a lack of any real self preservation intent by pushing on dennis

pyxxy had a progression on falcon throughout d1 and d2 that is very easy to see as a wolf awkwardly shifting their positioning once their other partner (seanzie) died, and his solving has felt the least sincere to me compared to my other townreads

so, willing to have my mind changed, willing to discuss it further, but that's where im at


that's the reason why I really want people to engage with my thoughts today, because if I'm wrong, I need help figuring out where

I came to the same conclusion as you in my reads list
And the "maybe you'll clear me if I don't post" feels... Not so good

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

@Neon Where are you, POE wise? Narrow it down to three pls

Cool
Can you answer in non-GIF form?

[potentialsheltervet]

kicks thread violently
We need town consensus on sig and pyxxy. So @sig why dennis over pyxxy?
@Dennis why sig other than omgus?
Does anyone have strong reasons to town read pyxxy?
Does anyone have strong reasons to scum read sig?

[potentialsheltervet]

@pyxxy If you're town, your absence isn't going to convince anyone to move off of you. Come back and be towny.

[staypositivefriend]

sigh

[staypositivefriend]

the thread needs to wake up

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I'm awake but have nothing of value to say

[Dennis]

kicks thread violently
We need town consensus on sig and pyxxy. So @sig why dennis over pyxxy?
@Dennis why sig other than omgus?
Does anyone have strong reasons to town read pyxxy?
Does anyone have strong reasons to scum read sig?

I said before, having him around is doing nothing for us other than making us go "hmm what if it's just sig" and if we don't kill him, he's never getting NKd and will just be a liability in limlo

It's better we do this asap so we still have other mischops before limlo

[Dennis]

Pyxxy I have no super strong feels either way, but somewhere along the line I decided I was townreading him

[sig]

Coming in and omgusing me isn't the best look in my opinion

Nah you’re playing within your scum meta and I’ve said that consistently since before your mentioned me and I voted their last phase.

You’re attempting to paint a picture that’s entirely inaccurate which only further fuels my suspicion that you’re mafia.

It also just makes sense from a wagonomics perspective. We had two wagons of players within the POE one got voted off and flipped civ. The next move isn’t to go and create two new wagons its to finish off the one we had and see how you flip

[sig]

kicks thread violently
We need town consensus on sig and pyxxy. So @sig why dennis over pyxxy?
@Dennis why sig other than omgus?
Does anyone have strong reasons to town read pyxxy?
Does anyone have strong reasons to scum read sig?

There is zero reason to scum read Pyxxy at this time and plenty of reason to go for Dennis which I and others have consistently said.

At this point I’m confident he’s the last mafia member and if it isn’t him it’s likely SPF and that’s just because they’re still alive

[sig]

@pyxxy If you're town, your absence isn't going to convince anyone to move off of you. Come back and be towny.

Also if anything this should convince you he’s town. Why would mafia go dark on a 2-2 tie?

[sig]

Actually with 6 civs left it would be what

6-1
4-1
2-1

So we have 3 phases left to solve.

We have to vote off SPF next phase if we don’t hit mafia this phase it’s really that simple.

Then we have 2 more slots. So I’m wondering what happened to

1. Following the POE
2. Why are we giving SPF a free pass after Kate’s last post?

[sig]

Feels a bit like a shrug yeet but meh. Also, we should stop telling the mafia who to NK in the thread because now it's hard to read into the lemonfairy kill more than "3 people said she was obvitown" and if I did get NK'd, then there would be no analysis too

The first is about me

Pyxxy I have no super strong feels either way, but somewhere along the line I decided I was townreading him

This is about Pyxxy.

Dennis has TMI and attempting to straddle the middle between two wagons

[sig]

Dude the wolf is just gonna be something annoying like sig literally watch this happen

Also Dennis just played with mafia Sig. He knows I’m active as mafia, this falls into the same way I caught him out last game he was mafia when he gave a fake reason for his Neon read.

And I’m 100% standing by what I said that game as this one.

He’s good as mafia but still somewhat inexperienced so he misreads people when he’s mafia. In this case he’s knowingly misread my lack of attention as civ as me being checked out mafia. He knows this isn’t correct since we just rolled mafia together.


Hence he doesn’t know how to read me so is being waffly while still voting my way. However, the entire read is coming across as wooden and disingenuous because it is.

[sig]

And if it isn’t him it’s SPF so a win is a win

[potentialsheltervet]

@sig You didn't actually respond to SPF's reasons to townread Dennis. Or her remarks on pyxxy. You came in here, asserted you're right, and then ghosted again.

[sig]

@sig You didn't actually respond to SPF's reasons to townread Dennis. Or her remarks on pyxxy. You came in here, asserted you're right, and then ghosted again.

Yup

I’m busy and haven’t caught up yet

[potentialsheltervet]

Oh you haven't ghosted. It was showing me a different time than it is now, oops

[sig]

I’m also not changing my read no matter what anyone says I was right last game and was ignored and he flipped mafia. So I’m sticking to my read unless there’s a green check which doesn’t exist

[potentialsheltervet]

@sig You didn't actually respond to SPF's reasons to townread Dennis. Or her remarks on pyxxy. You came in here, asserted you're right, and then ghosted again.

Yup

I’m busy and haven’t caught up yet

I'm pretty confident we don't need to be voting Dennis. SPF is someone who should be taken out if we get to lylo.
I don't think the mutual scowling from you and Dennis is beneficial at this time. Town needs to vote together and talk and establish a consensus, not fracture into factions.

[potentialsheltervet]

I’m also not changing my read no matter what anyone says I was right last game and was ignored and he flipped mafia. So I’m sticking to my read unless there’s a green check which doesn’t exist

Okay well, would you please at minimum review his conduct when it was tied between him and Six and report back?