Summer Sh*t Day 5
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- potentialsheltervet
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
I'm not sure why but this website keeps fighting with my laptop.
I'd assume the poll closes at 4 (central time). I hope SOMEONE other than me/SPF pops in to engage but I'm not confident that will happen.
I'd assume the poll closes at 4 (central time). I hope SOMEONE other than me/SPF pops in to engage but I'm not confident that will happen.

- staypositivefriend
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
i was antsy during that hour ii was gone thinking that maybe people had come back and started posting again
but nope
.
but nope
.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
Yep 4 your time, 5 my time and 10 splints timepotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 3:33 pm I'm not sure why but this website keeps fighting with my laptop.
I'd assume the poll closes at 4 (central time). I hope SOMEONE other than me/SPF pops in to engage but I'm not confident that will happen.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
Yep. At this point Dennis is going to get elimmed and... I just that's the end.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 4:34 pm i was antsy during that hour ii was gone thinking that maybe people had come back and started posting again
but nope
.

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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
i hope that dennis not showing up for this EOD is a sign that he's mafia
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
possibly confirmation biased thinking but yeah
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 4
Smack!

Sun was shinning and everyone decided it was the perfect beach day. fingersplints and Roxy set their chairs up and immediately proceeded to nap and ignore everyone.
The remaining five of the group decided that they wanted to play some beach volleyball. Since there were five, someone had to sit out. After some bickering they all decided on Dennis. He was so young that he would add a youthful advantage to either team and they decided that was just not fair. Dennis was ok with this as he didn’t trust anyone; not even to keep score on the volleyball game.
Everyone was really into the game. They all jumped high, and dove into the sand. Set. Spike. Point. Both teams were determined to win.
Dennis diligently kept score and looked out for rule infractions. He too, took it seriously.
The game was tied. Anyone could win. Suddenly Neon jumped into the air and spiked the ball so hard. Everyone gasped as the ball went out of bounds and straight at Dennis. He yelped and tried to move out of the way, but he wasn’t quick enough. the force of the volleyball was enough to knock him unconscious, so he had to go home.
Dennis has been eliminated. He was BBQ Picnic (Town)

Sun was shinning and everyone decided it was the perfect beach day. fingersplints and Roxy set their chairs up and immediately proceeded to nap and ignore everyone.
The remaining five of the group decided that they wanted to play some beach volleyball. Since there were five, someone had to sit out. After some bickering they all decided on Dennis. He was so young that he would add a youthful advantage to either team and they decided that was just not fair. Dennis was ok with this as he didn’t trust anyone; not even to keep score on the volleyball game.
Everyone was really into the game. They all jumped high, and dove into the sand. Set. Spike. Point. Both teams were determined to win.
Dennis diligently kept score and looked out for rule infractions. He too, took it seriously.
The game was tied. Anyone could win. Suddenly Neon jumped into the air and spiked the ball so hard. Everyone gasped as the ball went out of bounds and straight at Dennis. He yelped and tried to move out of the way, but he wasn’t quick enough. the force of the volleyball was enough to knock him unconscious, so he had to go home.
Dennis has been eliminated. He was BBQ Picnic (Town)
- potentialsheltervet
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Sorry, Dennis. I didn't think you were mafia.
I kinda want to pursue my heart's desire and just vote neon.
I kinda want to pursue my heart's desire and just vote neon.

- potentialsheltervet
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.

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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
pretty demotivating if im being honest
- staypositivefriend
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
if sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dyingpotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
No thank you, I'd rather not be left alive at this point. I'm so tired.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 5:53 pmif sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dyingpotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia

- potentialsheltervet
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
I imagine neon will vote me. Sig might vote SPF. SPF will vote sig. I will vote neon.
Merry go round.
Merry go round.

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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
PSV won't die because they are gonna snap vote mestaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 5:53 pmif sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dyingpotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.
saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia
I won't die because I'm the town getting snap voted
Basically you or sig is dying and the other is mafia probs
GGs.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Game was lost the minute I became the target of bad omgus like d2
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Alternatively psv is actually just mafia but.
Thing of it is that only push me when I vote them lol
Thing of it is that only push me when I vote them lol
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
I've intentionally tested this over and over and they only vote me and target me when I vote them
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
@potentialsheltervet - in a world where i end up dead tonight, please don't snapvote neon. ideally, please don't snapvote at all
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
this conversation made me realize who i think the final mafia is
mafia better kill me so that i don't say
uwu
mafia better kill me so that i don't say
uwu
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
i think i will most likely be safe from the nightkill except for a world where exactly sig is mafia and he wants to pit neon and psv against each other
maybe?
maybe?
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
i think that a world where i am alive will be very telling regardless of who is alive with me
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
i hope i die though tbh
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
me @ the mafia
- potentialsheltervet
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Yes, I singlehandedly lost the game twelve people were in. My bad. I'll just go to the shame circle.

- staypositivefriend
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
do u think neon's posts rn are towny?
(asking for a friend)
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Ehh. Tossup. I don't see why she would bother implying she thinks I'm town if she's mafia. I believe her most recent Poe was me/Dennis.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:20 pmdo u think neon's posts rn are towny?
(asking for a friend)

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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
i find them kind of towny but shrug
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
i wrote a very long post outlining my worldview and who i think the mafia are in each conceivable world but i havent decided if im going to post it yet
maybe like 10 minutes before the deadline so that the mafia doesnt have time to prepare around it
idk
maybe like 10 minutes before the deadline so that the mafia doesnt have time to prepare around it
idk
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
For the most part? No.
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Paranoia exists solely over treatment of me
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
In the sense that it has become very easy in a world where you are town to just keep you and me alive until f3 and get a free win...potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:19 pmYes, I singlehandedly lost the game twelve people were in. My bad. I'll just go to the shame circle.
Yes. I've been playing around with if I think a wolf bothers trying to play around me how you have and I think they do but it's a hard juxtaposition with the fact that if your town we are specifically here to tunnel each other
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
i'm just going to say that i have one very confident townread, one person i'm leaning on being wolf with a reasonable amount of confidence, and i think the game is probably easy to solve FMPOV depending on who i'm alive with
or, i'll be dead and i won't have to worry about it
or, i'll be dead and i won't have to worry about it
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
I probubbly should've done what I always do in FX closed the thread ignored it and than snap votedstaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 12:49 am i wrote a very long post outlining my worldview and who i think the mafia are in each conceivable world but i havent decided if im going to post it yet
maybe like 10 minutes before the deadline so that the mafia doesnt have time to prepare around it
idk
Outlining my thoughts here is really dumb. *sigh*
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
okay
i will be posting my thoughts roughly 10 minutes before the deadline
if i end up dead then i would strongly consider sheeping my thoughts/taking them into serious consideration. at the very least, please do not snap-vote in that world
if i'm still alive then alright then lol
i will be posting my thoughts roughly 10 minutes before the deadline
if i end up dead then i would strongly consider sheeping my thoughts/taking them into serious consideration. at the very least, please do not snap-vote in that world
if i'm still alive then alright then lol
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Okaystaypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 4:15 pm okay
i will be posting my thoughts roughly 10 minutes before the deadline
if i end up dead then i would strongly consider sheeping my thoughts/taking them into serious consideration. at the very least, please do not snap-vote in that world
if i'm still alive then alright then lol

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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
so…………
let’s start with sig:
sig doesn’t really have a progression on seanzie to speak of. there isn't anything to analyze here, because he didn't talk about seanzie until after seanzie was already dead, and didn't have much of a presence in the game to speak of at the time
his progression on falcon is a bit more telling, though:
from seanzie/falcon's side, there's nothing to read into here. seanzie did not interact with or mention sig at all. falcon also did not interact with or mention sig at all
i feel like i should have more to talk about here, but i honestly don't. sig was just not very involved with the conversations surrounding seanzie or falcon in general, which makes it difficult to analyze him from a more holistic pov
that said, i do have some thoughts about sig’s overall approach to seanzie/falcon, but i’m going to put a pin in that until i’ve completed the rest of the analysis
so, let’s move on to neon:
seanzie and neon interact a few more times throughout their ISO, but there isn't much to their interactions. i will note that seanzie did maintain his FOS on neon throughout his entire ISO
in my initial analysis, i thought this was a point in favor of neon being town, and i honestly do still kind of feel that way…..it’s just pretty rare for wolves to go out of their way to strongly tr their partners like that, and some of the posts that falcon makes toward neon do look fairly pockety
at this time, the seanzie wagon had already gained momentum, so kind of hard to give towncred here. it is positioned a bit like a bussing vote would be
she also kind of like ...gives up around this time? she seems adamant that falcon is town but doesn't really do anything to shift the momentum at all. ...i also have some thoughts here, but gonna wait until the end of this analysis to say them
now, let's move on to PSV:
this read does shift quite a bit, though
that's ....hm. again, let me finish this analysis before i give my thoughts on that
let’s take a look at psv’s progression on seanzie/falcon:
similarly to neon, PSV kind of "gives up" here too, in the sense that she seems adamant that falcon is town but she doesn't really do anything to sway the momentum or save falcon from dying
so....okay. i want to make some observations here:
psv
-it stands out to me that seanzie drops his suspicions of PSV very, very quickly, and made several posts throughout d1 that feel fairly cloying toward her/intended to get on her good side
if i put myself in seanzie’s shoes, and my objective is: “Distance From PSV”, his treatment of her doesn't make a lot of sense. why start off by pushing on your partner and making a big show out of scumreading them, only to shift to townreading them and talking about how they're towny/not scummy anymore? this would diminish any real "distancing" that seanzie had accomplished by pushing PSV at the beginning of the day, and it reads a bit more like a wolf shifting their positioning in an attempt to pocket PSV
-something that also stands out to me is that seanzie and falcon both had the progression of pushing on PSV at the beginning of the game, but then deciding that she’s town and defending her. in both cases, seanzie and falcon’s progressions on PSV are a bit “dynamic” and shift fairly abruptly. my general sense is that W/W progressions tend to be a bit more "clean" and a bit more carefully planned out, and i think the abrupt shift here is a good look for PSV
-on a similar note, i don’t really think that PSV would be bold enough to townread both of her partners in the way she did toward the beginning of d1, and the rest of her play does not really feel like it comes from someone who is trying to powerwolf
-...following that thought further, there is a lack of syncronity in the way that falcon/seanzie/PSV treated each other that makes me struggle to see them as a team as well. it would be weird for seanzie and falcon to come into the game distancing/bussing PSV, but then PSV deciding to townread both of them at the same time. i don't see much of a coherent strategy there
so, i don’t really think it’s PSV - if i’m wrong on that then well, whatever, i guess i just misread the spew badly and that’s on me
neon:
-i do still feel, at a base level, like the way that falcon treated neon throughout d1/d2 reads a bit more like a wolf pocketing a villager than a wolf talking to another wolf, and this is still the strongest point i have in favor of neon being town in general
-i also still find neon's overall progression on falcon hard to buy as a W/W progression. if i put myself in neon's shoes and my partner seanzie just died and my other partner falcon is in danger of dying, i could see her trying to defend him/divert the wagon elsewhere, but i guess what stands out to me is how ...defeated? she was about falcon in general. she was adamant about him being town but did not really meaningfully defend him or try to pull the momentum elsewhere. it is, indeed, a bizarre scum strategy if neon is mafia
-smaller point, but i kind of like how neon has treated my slot in general - if she was intending to pocket me then idk if she would randomly drop lines about how i might be mafia, or say she would instavote me in f3 - her paranoia feels kind of authentic/real to me
-neon’s vote on seanzie on d1 is positioned like a bus vote. this is something to keep in mind, i suppose, but i won't weigh this point too heavily, since the quick formation of the seanzie wagon on d1 means that it could have been pure
so....if i squint really hard and try to envision a world where neon is mafia, it's possible, but it doesn't seem particularly likely to me. i think that neon is a great scum player, and i know she has fooled me before, but i just fail to see a coherent scum strategy in a lot of the stuff that she did
sig:
-i like that sig was attacking falcon on d1 and that he went out of his way to bolster momentum against him on d2. it would be weird for sig to be comfortable with hardbussing on d2 right after his other partner died, unless he was just super prepared/ready to solo endgame, but he hasn't been playing like someone who has a vested interest in doing that
-sig’s conviction on dennis has felt fairly real to me at several points, even if it ended up being wrong. not sure what the point is in locking yourself in a tunnel on one player when he would need multiple miseliminations to win the game if he's maf
-i don't see why he makes the ted kill in a world where he’s maifa
now, on the other hand….
-sig has spoken ~about~ me a lot, but has consistently stopped short of giving any real conclusion. the specific way he has danced around me potentially being mafia without actually committing to it (and prioritizing his read on dennis) does make me worry that he might be trying to set me up
-when i look at each of psv/neon/sig, i feel that i have the least reasons to townread sig overall. i also feel like from a more holistic perspective, the reasons i have to townread neon/psv are a bit stronger than i do for sig
for example, my reasoning to townread psv/neon is largely reliant on me not being able to form a coherent scum strategy out of how they played, whereas the scum strategy in sig's play is a bit more obvious (ie: push on your widely POE'd partner to get cred for endgame, and then coast for as long as possiblee)
so i mean, honestly, i do think that it might just be sig
but anyway, let's do some theorycrafting for a while. here are the possible worlds FMPOV:
WORLD A: I end up dead
in this world, i would lean on the mafia being sig, but i'm not confident enough where i would say you should sheep that
the reason i would lean sig in a world where i'm dead tonight is bcuz PSV has telegraphed that she wants to vote neon, and i can see sig just leaving PSV and neon alive together and hoping they tunnel each other into oblivion. it might be the easiest possible win from his point of view
...whereas it's a little harder to see why psv/neon would kill me as a wolf when i would probably still be pretty pushable from their point of views
World B: I am alive with sig & neon
hm...i'm not so sure about this world, just because it makes sense fmpov for either neon or sig to leave me alive with the other. if sig is a wolf, it makes sense for him to leave me alive with neon, since sig has hinted that he intends to thunderdome me in the f3 multiple times, and he would probably find it easier to convince neon to vote me than to convince PSV to vote me. neon has also said she would instavote me in a f3 (though not sure how serious this is?), and sig might be aware of that
on the other hand, me and sig have also been kind of circling around our suspicions of each other for multiple days now, and from neon's POV, it might be an easy win from her point of view to let me and sig just thunderdome/push each other
even so, i think that in terms of “overall holistic reasons to townread”, i would lean on it being sig in this world, cause i feel like my reasons to TR neon are a bit stronger than my reasons to TR sig
World C: I am alive with sig & PSV
in this world, i ...think i would lean on it being sig over PSV. this is because i have independently concluded that PSV is probably town from my analysis
i will say that this world would probably make me doubt PSV a bit more tho, cause idk why sig would leave me alive with PSV when it seems like neon has an overall higher chance of voting me overall…? it doesn't make a lot of sense for sig to leave me alive with PSV when PSV has been townreading for p much this entire game, whereas it DOES make sense from PSV's perspective to leave me and sig with each other so that we could thunderdome
so i mean, in terms of ~overall solving~, i would probably lean on it being sig in this world, but it would make me a bit paranoid of PSV cause it's hard to see why sig makes a neon kill
so i mean, being fully transparent, if i am alive with sig in any capacity tomorrow, i would probably find it difficult not to vote him. so...
World D: I am alive with neon and PSV
i think the main point in favor of neon in this world would be i’m not sure what her endgame would be? if she's a wolf she might perceives me as having a higher chance of hammering PSV than sig would, since i’ve been defending neon/calling her towny all game? but i've been townreading PSV all game too, so idk if neon would want to bank on that
if i'm doing a direct comparison btwn neon and psv, i do townlean psv a bit more, since:
A. neon’s positioning on seanzie feels more like bus positioning, in comparison to PSV
B. the spew is a bit better for PSV than for neon, cause falcon & seanzie kind of conceded that PSV was town rather awkwardly after taking heat, whereas their progressions on neon were a bit more static and easier to read as "Strategic"
c. a lot of the reasons why i was townreading neon feel a bit flimsier in this world
for example, in this world, it would be a little harder for me to maintain the towncred im giving to neon for falcon tring her throughout d2, when falcon did the SAME THING to psv, but arguably in a townier way with the way he re-evaluated her
the same thing applies to neon’s treatment of falcon - one of the main reasons why i’ve been townreading neon is specifically because the way she defended falcon throughout d2 didn’t really seem like something a wolf would do, but PSV did exactly the same, so i couldn’t give towncred for that without also giving it to PSV
…which does make me think that sig might just be mafia but yeah
let’s start with sig:
sig doesn’t really have a progression on seanzie to speak of. there isn't anything to analyze here, because he didn't talk about seanzie until after seanzie was already dead, and didn't have much of a presence in the game to speak of at the time
his progression on falcon is a bit more telling, though:
sig does come right out of the gate saying that he thinks falcon is well within his scumrange on d1, and signal boosting the idea that falcon is a wolf
on d2, after seanzie has already died, sig also does give a boost to ted’s suspicions on falcon, and actively puts falcon in his immediate POEsig wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 2:02 pm Falcon, PSV, Dennis, and maybe Ted(?) are my four
I don't think Ted/Falcon or Pyxxy/Falcon are W/W if Falcon is mafia both are cleared. But, I also have no idea why I just wrote that about Pyxxy.
PSV and SPF I need to ISO.
Camilla while being a solid Civ wasn't the only one so that points to one of her legacy reads being correct.
I disagree with the people who say a teammate wouldn't bus D1/D2. If you have a clear mafia read then I could see it. For example, in this case Falcon is nearly a consensus of the strong town reads at the moment, so I could see a bus there. D1 a bus could happen if you got caught up in the moment.
from seanzie/falcon's side, there's nothing to read into here. seanzie did not interact with or mention sig at all. falcon also did not interact with or mention sig at all
i feel like i should have more to talk about here, but i honestly don't. sig was just not very involved with the conversations surrounding seanzie or falcon in general, which makes it difficult to analyze him from a more holistic pov
that said, i do have some thoughts about sig’s overall approach to seanzie/falcon, but i’m going to put a pin in that until i’ve completed the rest of the analysis
so, let’s move on to neon:
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 9:23 amFinally gettin' the respect I deserve.Neon wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 3:04 amWhy am I scum my lord?Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:34 pmYou entered with a song rather than a post. The first post is always the hardest for a wolf.potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:32 pm @Seanzie How are you drawing your conclusion? Do you not like Taylor Swift?
This looks like partners af.
so, the notable thing to me here is that seanzie does go out of his way to shade neon quite a lot in the early stages of the game. the shade is partially directed at me/PSV too, but the bulk of it seems to be directed at neon. ....hm. gonna put a pin in that thought for a moment
seanzie and neon interact a few more times throughout their ISO, but there isn't much to their interactions. i will note that seanzie did maintain his FOS on neon throughout his entire ISO
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:08 pmpotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:06 pmHi. Why are you sheeping neon?
Neon is supremely town Neon.
There are a few signs I've learned to look for...like, she might be fakin' it? But nah
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 2:30 pmNeon wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 3:24 amWhat makes me town here?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:08 pmpotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:06 pmHi. Why are you sheeping neon?
Neon is supremely town Neon.
There are a few signs I've learned to look for...like, she might be fakin' it? But nah
It's a combination of a few things, including your anime gif's & general solve energy.
now, on the other hand, falcon’s treatment of neon is very different from seanzie’s treatment of her. falcon townread neon quite strongly right out of the gate ,and he talked about/referenced his tr on her a LOTfalcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 11:48 am Oh sweet, Neon is still town.
Let the summer sheep continue
in my initial analysis, i thought this was a point in favor of neon being town, and i honestly do still kind of feel that way…..it’s just pretty rare for wolves to go out of their way to strongly tr their partners like that, and some of the posts that falcon makes toward neon do look fairly pockety
wrt to neon’s progression on seanzie, she talked TO seanzie quite a lot (particularly regarding his read on her), but she didn’t talk ABOUT seanzie much in general. she did end up silently voting for seanzie right around this point, for reasons that are a bit unclear/confusing to me
at this time, the seanzie wagon had already gained momentum, so kind of hard to give towncred here. it is positioned a bit like a bussing vote would be
Neon wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 5:35 amVibesCamilla wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 11:59 amWhy Falcon?Neon wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 4:12 amHmmm. I really like this post.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 3:15 am im not actually sure if i townlean neon anymore because the specific stuff i was soul townreading (like comfort/consistency in her wolfread on me and psv) is something that is likely to be more playstyle indicative for neon than alignment indicative. i stand by the other reads that i said in the last page
Town Core
Neon
SPF
Falcon
neon’s progression on falcon is a bit more interesting - she starts off by putting falcon in her towncore on d1, though i find it notable that she says that her read on him is “mostly fake” on d1:
Neon wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 11:29 am Quiet barely active doesn't give a fuck falcon is usually town ime he just wolfed and actually tried I think falcon is very much the type of player who cares about not letting his pack down so he's more active when scum.
Also also he just pocketed me as wolf and I'm not sure he's try to do literally the exact same thing two games in a row. That's uh less likely to be true though.
her townread on falcon seems to grow in confidence quite a lot when falcon became a wagon on d2, though. she defends him pretty actively and emphasizes that he is town multiple times
she also kind of like ...gives up around this time? she seems adamant that falcon is town but doesn't really do anything to shift the momentum at all. ...i also have some thoughts here, but gonna wait until the end of this analysis to say them
now, let's move on to PSV:
seanzie essentially treats PSV the same way she treated neon - he opens d1 by putting some pressure on PSV and calling her wolfySeanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:39 pmYou seem quite worried about a page 1 read. I'd vote you if I could.potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:37 pm...reallySeanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:34 pmYou entered with a song rather than a post. The first post is always the hardest for a wolf.potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:32 pm @Seanzie How are you drawing your conclusion? Do you not like Taylor Swift?
I am a rule follower. I am abiding by the rules.
this read does shift quite a bit, though
Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:30 pmFTR, it was a joke. What did you find sus about PSV's reaction?Neon wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 11:00 amWe have a history you and I. I have figured it out.Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 8:03 am*Checks to do list*Neon wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:41 amWell see the thing is it's a reaction test but something tells me PSV is actually gonna get tunneled by Sean now.Camilla wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:18 amThere was very little questioning of you and/or follow-up from him.potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 11:56 pmHe said serious read, so I took it seriously. I find his reasoning lackluster.
The suspicion's either a Mac-like reaction test or just a shitpost as I don't think it's sincere in the slightest.
Make breakfast
Work out
Play guitar
Write final exams
tunnel PSV
*puts to do list away*
Wow, how did you know?
Also because I've been side eyeing PSVs reaction so I assume you would be... but worse.
I am making a concerted effort to not "tunnel" people when I can, but even if I wasn't, I thought PSV's reaction was fine.
seanzie does shift over to townreading psv after he opened up by scumreading her, and he drops his suspicions of her rather quickly/abruptlySeanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 9:04 pmI rarely give townreads. You're fine, that's all I'll give.potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:47 pmI mean, Seanzie is TRing me and Neon is scumreading me so I'm not sure how you agree with both.tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:45 pmI don’t disagree with any reads stated etc is what i meant, tho i didn’t read with too much cautionpotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:43 pmWhat do you mean by you like where things are headed?tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:41 pm fwiw i feel like giving reads rn would be a LEAK due to 2 non posters
but i’ll add a wolfy remark of i kinda like where things are headed and have noticed nothing that i was going “huh wat” in my head to
a bit of a thing i spotted was alice stating a rand v read on seanzie and then making a post to spf saying she shouldn’t give him an easy villa pass, gth it feels bad but if i’m thinking about it, i don’t see what point it accomplishes as a wolf. might be a villagery progression
i’m a very lazy d1 player. and this isn’t even d1 yet tbh
and even more interestingly, falcon’s treatment of PSV is pretty similar to seanzie’s treatment of her. in both cases, both of them started off by pushing on PSV for a while and calling her wolfy, and then both shifted to her being townfalcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 11:32 amLemonfairy wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 10:59 am @falcon45ca
hi falcon what are your reads right now?
could you post a list or something?
I'm TR Neon & SR Kate
PSV actually giving links to their Maf games is pretty towny IMO, tho I've not yet compared their games.
After that I'll have to do some digging, I've barely read anything
that's ....hm. again, let me finish this analysis before i give my thoughts on that
let’s take a look at psv’s progression on seanzie/falcon:
psv does start off by townreading seanzie, though she wasn’t really around while he was being wagoned and generally did not have the chance to react to him being in danger. there's not much of a progression to speak of herepotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:12 pm I think of the people who have interacted with me, I feel best about Seanzie and Neon, since both are sticking to their guns in spite of thread flow-- Seanzie in saying my responses felt okay when others said they didn't, Neon saying they didn't feel okay when others said they had.
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:12 pm I think I feel fine about falcon, Neon, and Seanzie thus far.
so, psv also starts off d1 by townreading falcon (in tandem w/seanzie). she does acknowledge there are concerns about falcon that she disagrees with, but that there “isn’t enough substance” to defend that read:potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:19 pmHe seems chill in a town way.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:17 pmwhy falcon?potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:12 pm I think I feel fine about falcon, Neon, and Seanzie thus far.
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 6:39 pmWhat's your fixation with trying to push me, ted? There are legitimate concerns with sig/six, falcon (still disagree but not enough substance to really fight it) and Dennis, yet you insist on pooping and then throwing it at me.
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 6:50 pmSee, what happened last game was falcon was very aggressive very early with Zenge, Zenge snapped back, and falcon was mafia. Falcon was super aggressive then essentially dropped off the map.Kate wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 6:20 pmI'd ask you to reconsider your thoughts here.Neon wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 11:29 am Quiet barely active doesn't give a fuck falcon is usually town ime he just wolfed and actually tried I think falcon is very much the type of player who cares about not letting his pack down so he's more active when scum.
Also also he just pocketed me as wolf and I'm not sure he's try to do literally the exact same thing two games in a row. That's uh less likely to be true though.
Town falcon is more aggressive and solvy. Wolf falcon become aggressive later game and starts making fake arguments. Read his iso, it won't take long. There is absolutely nothing about psv that would make him have such a firm read. He's doing the same thing seanzie did day 1 with me as the target.
And he's definitely pocketing you.
I guess the point being I saw so much disagreement about falcon and his meta last game, and this point doesn't align with what I saw either, that I'm just going to ignore him and hope the wolves are elsewhere tbh
when falcon becomes a real wagon on d2, PSV is pretty blunt/adamant about the fact that she isn’t willing to vote for falcon and that she just doesn't want him to diepotentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 10:05 pmI'm reading, but I don't agree on falcon so I don't want to vote there. Sorry.
similarly to neon, PSV kind of "gives up" here too, in the sense that she seems adamant that falcon is town but she doesn't really do anything to sway the momentum or save falcon from dying
so....okay. i want to make some observations here:
psv
-it stands out to me that seanzie drops his suspicions of PSV very, very quickly, and made several posts throughout d1 that feel fairly cloying toward her/intended to get on her good side
if i put myself in seanzie’s shoes, and my objective is: “Distance From PSV”, his treatment of her doesn't make a lot of sense. why start off by pushing on your partner and making a big show out of scumreading them, only to shift to townreading them and talking about how they're towny/not scummy anymore? this would diminish any real "distancing" that seanzie had accomplished by pushing PSV at the beginning of the day, and it reads a bit more like a wolf shifting their positioning in an attempt to pocket PSV
-something that also stands out to me is that seanzie and falcon both had the progression of pushing on PSV at the beginning of the game, but then deciding that she’s town and defending her. in both cases, seanzie and falcon’s progressions on PSV are a bit “dynamic” and shift fairly abruptly. my general sense is that W/W progressions tend to be a bit more "clean" and a bit more carefully planned out, and i think the abrupt shift here is a good look for PSV
-on a similar note, i don’t really think that PSV would be bold enough to townread both of her partners in the way she did toward the beginning of d1, and the rest of her play does not really feel like it comes from someone who is trying to powerwolf
-...following that thought further, there is a lack of syncronity in the way that falcon/seanzie/PSV treated each other that makes me struggle to see them as a team as well. it would be weird for seanzie and falcon to come into the game distancing/bussing PSV, but then PSV deciding to townread both of them at the same time. i don't see much of a coherent strategy there
so, i don’t really think it’s PSV - if i’m wrong on that then well, whatever, i guess i just misread the spew badly and that’s on me
neon:
-i do still feel, at a base level, like the way that falcon treated neon throughout d1/d2 reads a bit more like a wolf pocketing a villager than a wolf talking to another wolf, and this is still the strongest point i have in favor of neon being town in general
-i also still find neon's overall progression on falcon hard to buy as a W/W progression. if i put myself in neon's shoes and my partner seanzie just died and my other partner falcon is in danger of dying, i could see her trying to defend him/divert the wagon elsewhere, but i guess what stands out to me is how ...defeated? she was about falcon in general. she was adamant about him being town but did not really meaningfully defend him or try to pull the momentum elsewhere. it is, indeed, a bizarre scum strategy if neon is mafia
-smaller point, but i kind of like how neon has treated my slot in general - if she was intending to pocket me then idk if she would randomly drop lines about how i might be mafia, or say she would instavote me in f3 - her paranoia feels kind of authentic/real to me
-neon’s vote on seanzie on d1 is positioned like a bus vote. this is something to keep in mind, i suppose, but i won't weigh this point too heavily, since the quick formation of the seanzie wagon on d1 means that it could have been pure
so....if i squint really hard and try to envision a world where neon is mafia, it's possible, but it doesn't seem particularly likely to me. i think that neon is a great scum player, and i know she has fooled me before, but i just fail to see a coherent scum strategy in a lot of the stuff that she did
sig:
-i like that sig was attacking falcon on d1 and that he went out of his way to bolster momentum against him on d2. it would be weird for sig to be comfortable with hardbussing on d2 right after his other partner died, unless he was just super prepared/ready to solo endgame, but he hasn't been playing like someone who has a vested interest in doing that
-sig’s conviction on dennis has felt fairly real to me at several points, even if it ended up being wrong. not sure what the point is in locking yourself in a tunnel on one player when he would need multiple miseliminations to win the game if he's maf
-i don't see why he makes the ted kill in a world where he’s maifa
now, on the other hand….
-sig has spoken ~about~ me a lot, but has consistently stopped short of giving any real conclusion. the specific way he has danced around me potentially being mafia without actually committing to it (and prioritizing his read on dennis) does make me worry that he might be trying to set me up
-when i look at each of psv/neon/sig, i feel that i have the least reasons to townread sig overall. i also feel like from a more holistic perspective, the reasons i have to townread neon/psv are a bit stronger than i do for sig
for example, my reasoning to townread psv/neon is largely reliant on me not being able to form a coherent scum strategy out of how they played, whereas the scum strategy in sig's play is a bit more obvious (ie: push on your widely POE'd partner to get cred for endgame, and then coast for as long as possiblee)
so i mean, honestly, i do think that it might just be sig
but anyway, let's do some theorycrafting for a while. here are the possible worlds FMPOV:
WORLD A: I end up dead
in this world, i would lean on the mafia being sig, but i'm not confident enough where i would say you should sheep that
the reason i would lean sig in a world where i'm dead tonight is bcuz PSV has telegraphed that she wants to vote neon, and i can see sig just leaving PSV and neon alive together and hoping they tunnel each other into oblivion. it might be the easiest possible win from his point of view
...whereas it's a little harder to see why psv/neon would kill me as a wolf when i would probably still be pretty pushable from their point of views
World B: I am alive with sig & neon
hm...i'm not so sure about this world, just because it makes sense fmpov for either neon or sig to leave me alive with the other. if sig is a wolf, it makes sense for him to leave me alive with neon, since sig has hinted that he intends to thunderdome me in the f3 multiple times, and he would probably find it easier to convince neon to vote me than to convince PSV to vote me. neon has also said she would instavote me in a f3 (though not sure how serious this is?), and sig might be aware of that
on the other hand, me and sig have also been kind of circling around our suspicions of each other for multiple days now, and from neon's POV, it might be an easy win from her point of view to let me and sig just thunderdome/push each other
even so, i think that in terms of “overall holistic reasons to townread”, i would lean on it being sig in this world, cause i feel like my reasons to TR neon are a bit stronger than my reasons to TR sig
World C: I am alive with sig & PSV
in this world, i ...think i would lean on it being sig over PSV. this is because i have independently concluded that PSV is probably town from my analysis
i will say that this world would probably make me doubt PSV a bit more tho, cause idk why sig would leave me alive with PSV when it seems like neon has an overall higher chance of voting me overall…? it doesn't make a lot of sense for sig to leave me alive with PSV when PSV has been townreading for p much this entire game, whereas it DOES make sense from PSV's perspective to leave me and sig with each other so that we could thunderdome
so i mean, in terms of ~overall solving~, i would probably lean on it being sig in this world, but it would make me a bit paranoid of PSV cause it's hard to see why sig makes a neon kill
so i mean, being fully transparent, if i am alive with sig in any capacity tomorrow, i would probably find it difficult not to vote him. so...
World D: I am alive with neon and PSV
i think the main point in favor of neon in this world would be i’m not sure what her endgame would be? if she's a wolf she might perceives me as having a higher chance of hammering PSV than sig would, since i’ve been defending neon/calling her towny all game? but i've been townreading PSV all game too, so idk if neon would want to bank on that
if i'm doing a direct comparison btwn neon and psv, i do townlean psv a bit more, since:
A. neon’s positioning on seanzie feels more like bus positioning, in comparison to PSV
B. the spew is a bit better for PSV than for neon, cause falcon & seanzie kind of conceded that PSV was town rather awkwardly after taking heat, whereas their progressions on neon were a bit more static and easier to read as "Strategic"
c. a lot of the reasons why i was townreading neon feel a bit flimsier in this world
for example, in this world, it would be a little harder for me to maintain the towncred im giving to neon for falcon tring her throughout d2, when falcon did the SAME THING to psv, but arguably in a townier way with the way he re-evaluated her
the same thing applies to neon’s treatment of falcon - one of the main reasons why i’ve been townreading neon is specifically because the way she defended falcon throughout d2 didn’t really seem like something a wolf would do, but PSV did exactly the same, so i couldn’t give towncred for that without also giving it to PSV
…which does make me think that sig might just be mafia but yeah
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
gl gl
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Re: Summer Sh*t Night 4
Sand in your crack

After everything that had gone down for this extremely long weekend with fingersplints and Roxy everyone was ready to just stay in the cabin.....except sig.
Couldn't keep nature boy inside trapped in a damn cabin where he was still sleeping on the stairs bc, hey, it was so comfy but he was thinking a moonlit swim would be so decadent. He headed back out to the beach area of the river.
He dove into the water and it felt so great. He swam and floated for awhile then became tired in that happy way you get after a good day.
He laid out his Rick and Morty beach towel and put his hat over his eyes and just relaxed. It was glorious having this quiet time with no one doing anything stupid. He promptly fell asleep.
A friend noticed sig on the beach and smirked to themselves. They slipped out the side door of the cabin and snuck over to where sig was sleeping.
They proceeded to bury sig up to his neck in sand and ran away giggling like a school kid out at recess.
Hours later, as the sun was coming up, sig woke up and was so relaxed it took him a minute to realize what had happened. And tried to stand up but could not. He kept falling back down on his butt. Pretty soon his butt crack was so full of sand he was in pain every time he moved. Sand had gotten into places that sand should NEVER be. He understood now why the others had left and he left without saying a word to anyone.
sig drove himself home.
He was Moonlight Swim - Townie
It is indeed hammer time today. If you hammer please collect a screenshot and forward it to BOTH hosts. Votes aren’t changeable.

After everything that had gone down for this extremely long weekend with fingersplints and Roxy everyone was ready to just stay in the cabin.....except sig.
Couldn't keep nature boy inside trapped in a damn cabin where he was still sleeping on the stairs bc, hey, it was so comfy but he was thinking a moonlit swim would be so decadent. He headed back out to the beach area of the river.
He dove into the water and it felt so great. He swam and floated for awhile then became tired in that happy way you get after a good day.
He laid out his Rick and Morty beach towel and put his hat over his eyes and just relaxed. It was glorious having this quiet time with no one doing anything stupid. He promptly fell asleep.
A friend noticed sig on the beach and smirked to themselves. They slipped out the side door of the cabin and snuck over to where sig was sleeping.
They proceeded to bury sig up to his neck in sand and ran away giggling like a school kid out at recess.
Hours later, as the sun was coming up, sig woke up and was so relaxed it took him a minute to realize what had happened. And tried to stand up but could not. He kept falling back down on his butt. Pretty soon his butt crack was so full of sand he was in pain every time he moved. Sand had gotten into places that sand should NEVER be. He understood now why the others had left and he left without saying a word to anyone.
sig drove himself home.
He was Moonlight Swim - Townie
It is indeed hammer time today. If you hammer please collect a screenshot and forward it to BOTH hosts. Votes aren’t changeable.
Gro-oo-ovy
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5
oh for fucks sake
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Re: Summer Sh*t Day 5
I am baffled by the endgame here.
Unless it really is SPF and she's banking on me voting Neon and she'll have free rein to hop aboard whichever one of us she chooses, since I think the crossvote is pretty obvious.
Unless it really is SPF and she's banking on me voting Neon and she'll have free rein to hop aboard whichever one of us she chooses, since I think the crossvote is pretty obvious.

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