[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

[Wiml]

Falcon is two posts away from having the same number of posts as he made over four day phases in Sesame Street as a wolf. He seems to have done very minimal solving in that game and the solving he did do was very weak stuff clearly without much thought put in which he has completely done the opposite of so far this game.

I'm not clearing falcon solely on this basis and I haven't had the time to read his stronger wolf games yet but I feel that the difference between this game and that is pretty jarring and he's playing much more like how I'm used to seeing town-falcon play.

Wilgy was the person who was most vocally repping a strong meta read on falcon in the games I specced (although admittedly Wilgy was wolfing in those) so him immediately prioritising Falcon's ISO and coming out with a strong townread there is a plus for both their slots as well.

[Wiml]

I think in particular this game, falcon feels a lot more personally invsted in the game than there.

I think he actually cares about his read on Lime Coke and isn't just sitting back eating popcorn. I feel like he cares about the game broadly as a whole and is actually trying to push the gamestate forward with his posting and the questions he's asking.

[Wiml]

Belzy is a fine yeet. Their interactions with me feels in likeness to Jay's interactions with me in Don't Starve, where I'm for some reason the best vote in spite of just not being there.

DrWilgy is a fine yeet. Was afk most of d1 and has apparently read like 5 pages of the game. Taking heed of what he says once flipped is advised.

Epi is a gentleman and a scholar. Do not yeet.

Falcon is a gentleman and a scholar. Do not yeet.

Splints is a lady and a scholar. Do not yeet.

LC is a fine yeet. Their play seems very in likeness to cyberpunk. Seems that they are keen to stack mislims on the back of Belzy while at the same time willing to change who their vote is and who's the most wolfy to them per the words of another (just like in cyberpunk).

MR is a fine yeet. Their play seems to be very indicative of desire to open the PoE. The more I think on Seanzie pointing out their PoEs seem like busy work the less well it sits with me.

Seanzie is a fine yeet. Their play around Belzy seems very hedgey. They seem to be on the wagon and off the wagon at their leisure. Somewhat in likeness of MR keeping the PoE wide, but seems to have more Belzy focus. Weird thread pulls I think.

SVS is a lady and a scholar. Do not yeet.

Ted is a gentleman and a scholar. Do not yeet.

Thunal is a lady and a scholar. Do not yeet.

Zenon is a lady and a scholar. Do not yeet.

Quoting this post as it's the only time wolf-Wilgy ever mentioned wolf-Falcon in the recent game where they were w/w.

In the games with w-wilgy and t-falcon, wilgy was always confidently townreading falcon.

I haven't verified but I'm expecting town-wilgy probably has a good track record with reading him?

Not a tonne to glean from this atm besides the two probably not being w/w here but I thought it was interesting to check out nonetheless.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Initial associations chart. I like to try to have one of these complete mid-Day 1 when I have the time. For those unfamiliar, the blocks represent my degree of confidence that two players are not compatible as mafia teammates (so if I assume one to be mafia, how confident am I that the other is not also mafia?).

Blue --> most confident dissociation
Green --> dissociations, with higher confidence in darker shades

This might be the most yellow chart I have ever produced, and that reflects my biggest concern about the present state of the game. We need to really get folks talking about everyone else. I don't mean flatly "more activity", I mean activity that directly contributes to interpreting associations and just making reads in general.

When I do these my preference is to try to find someone that can be cleared by lack of viable mafia associations, but that's impossible right now. I wouldn't clear a single player on that basis with a chart like this. But perhaps it helps anyway to begin framing a broader world view. If I consider names in my current POE pool:

Lime Coke
Kate
Quin
DrWilgy

They're all technically compatible, albeit with no team-indicative indicators, except a soft dissociation for Wilgy and Lime Coke (I tend to doubt that Wilgy defaults to sheeping exactly falcon on exactly LC if they're teamed). So that POE group is more or less internally consistent. There could easily be mafia outside that group of four, but associations don't seem to be a viable method of finding that person if so at this point. A number of people fit.

[DrWilgy]

Falcon T Is easy enough to find in my opinion.

It's similar to what Seanzie said about them in JJJ'S dates game that ended not too long ago. If what Seanzie said about T falcon in that game matches what you see in a game it's likely the same circumstance.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Roxy giving a full reads list was a big help. We could use more of those from everyone when they have the chance.

[DrWilgy]

I couldn't sleep so now I'm soupin instead. Will try to continue catching up now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I couldn't sleep so now I'm soupin instead. Will try to continue catching up now.

I hope DrWilgy doesn't discover that my role is vanilla so he can soup kill me.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

To the best of my memory, this is the first time I have been a civilian in a Syndicate game since 2021. I am probably going to be my worstbest self and play at full throttle, as though this is the last chance I will ever have to solve a Mafia game.

Come friends, and let us make mincemeat of malevolent mountainous mafia.

Wait... this is the last game your ever playing?

I don't believe you interpreted JJJ's statement this way.

Fake entrance.

[VOTE: ☆Princess Abigail☆] aubergine

a ott response - ping. a baby one.

What is ott?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

over-the-top

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Doesn't seem to care about his vote.

His question towards Epi voting Quinn didn't feel like something he was trying to use to solve Epi and didn't look like he cared about the response.

Understood, thanks. I'll stow my thoughts until falcon responds to this.

He'll probably post.






Like this.

Thanks for keeping your reads open Brad, this looks good for you

Can you explain, in detail that I am sure to understand, what you mean by this gif response to post that does concern you nor contain anything posted by you?

Well see I'm playing mafia so generally speaking wolfy behavior always concerns me. Including this.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

It's a read I've used with consistency for months with insanely high accuracy.

The read is the first wagon with 3 votes always had 1 wolf in 4 names

I admittedly forced it here but still.

I disagree with the "high accuracy" portion of this post as the games I have played it has had only a 50/50 accuracy no worse than GTH reads imo.

I keep stats and it's >75% accurate across all sites

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Somebody should be obvious town, I'd appreciate it.

Hi is be obvious town Abigail thanks for finding me

[Roxy]

Spoiler: show

Doesn't seem to care about his vote.

His question towards Epi voting Quinn didn't feel like something he was trying to use to solve Epi and didn't look like he cared about the response.

Understood, thanks. I'll stow my thoughts until falcon responds to this.

He'll probably post.






Like this.

Thanks for keeping your reads open Brad, this looks good for you

Can you explain, in detail that I am sure to understand, what you mean by this gif response to post that does concern you nor contain anything posted by you?

Well see I'm playing mafia so generally speaking wolfy behavior always concerns me. Including this.

Yah I am playing mafia too I do not need that.

What is wolfy behavior that you see in this post?
Who in the post you quoted is wolfy?
Why are they wolfy?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

If the following people could provide link representative games of the listed alignments like JJJ did earlier then I'd appreciate it greatly:

@DrWilgy - Town
@Epignosis - Mafia
@falcon45ca - Mafia (not the recent one)
@Kate - Mafia
@Quin - Both
@Roxy - Both

Sorry for the mass ping!

no wtaf? I do not play your way I play my own tyvm <3 I hope you will do the same.

What do you mean? I'm only asking you to link a couple past games of yours, not asking you to play in any specific way.

I just want to learn about the people playing in this game who I don't know.

I won't do it bc I disagree on playing a meta based game state. You can play by meta if ya want to I never will base my game on them nor can I learn about player just by reading a past game, if you can more power to ya.

I have played many games on this site. Have fun in the Museum of the Mafioso.

Meta is foundational its very useful for laying a ground work to build a read on top of but nobody is gonna build the whole house out of foundation

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@☆Princess Abigail☆ would you be able to put together a full list of reads? Rainbow or tiers or something like that would be super. Explanations only if you feel like it.

[Roxy]

It's a read I've used with consistency for months with insanely high accuracy.

The read is the first wagon with 3 votes always had 1 wolf in 4 names

I admittedly forced it here but still.

I disagree with the "high accuracy" portion of this post as the games I have played it has had only a 50/50 accuracy no worse than GTH reads imo.

I keep stats and it's >75% accurate across all sites

ok, but I'll agree to disagree with your stats <3 In the nicest poss way

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Wiml you asked for another town link.

It looks like my last town game here was early 2022. I played like crap, but here you go: link. I don't think that's representative stylistically either, but we're dynamic creatures we humans.

[Roxy]

@Prinncess - well the mention would not come up so sorry for that. Thank you for your responses it is helping me to guage you this game.

I am almost out of the office and starting my track to all 3 stations then it will be my fave time of day - YaYa time! I will be in and out and hope to - at the very least - stay caught up reading. Happy posting!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Lime Coke could you put together a full reads list?

[Wiml]

Initial associations chart. I like to try to have one of these complete mid-Day 1 when I have the time. For those unfamiliar, the blocks represent my degree of confidence that two players are not compatible as mafia teammates (so if I assume one to be mafia, how confident am I that the other is not also mafia?).

Blue --> most confident dissociation
Green --> dissociations, with higher confidence in darker shades

This might be the most yellow chart I have ever produced, and that reflects my biggest concern about the present state of the game. We need to really get folks talking about everyone else. I don't mean flatly "more activity", I mean activity that directly contributes to interpreting associations and just making reads in general.

When I do these my preference is to try to find someone that can be cleared by lack of viable mafia associations, but that's impossible right now. I wouldn't clear a single player on that basis with a chart like this. But perhaps it helps anyway to begin framing a broader world view. If I consider names in my current POE pool:

Lime Coke
Kate
Quin
DrWilgy

They're all technically compatible, albeit with no team-indicative indicators, except a soft dissociation for Wilgy and Lime Coke (I tend to doubt that Wilgy defaults to sheeping exactly falcon on exactly LC if they're teamed). So that POE group is more or less internally consistent. There could easily be mafia outside that group of four, but associations don't seem to be a viable method of finding that person if so at this point. A number of people fit.

I think a big issue with this game is just that it's heavily lopsided towards the higher posters having such a large proportion of the total posts. We've collectively got about half of the posts in the thread and about half of the remaining posts are from either Michelle or Abigail.

Not sure what can be done about that but I'd like to make things as accommodating as possible for everyone else and try to help them get into the game if they're struggling.

[Wiml]

My PoE is also Lime Coke / Kate / Quin / Wilgy with Epi on the verge of the but being townier than the rest.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Epignosis might become my #5 as well at the current trajectory. I get it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here's a general caution that isn't quite relevant yet, but it may become so (and I may not last long enough to promote it when it counts):

I think the prevailing wisdom in a mountainous game with two mafia is that bussing is unlikely. I think this is quite false. Indeed, mountainous games might be the most friendly to bussing, because it cannot be punished by investigative mechanics. If someone flips mafia, don't flatly clear their wagon. That doesn't mean someone has already bussed or will definitely bus -- just give everything the proper due diligence. I also acknowledge that it's possible that mafia methodology might pivot on the basis of me even making this post, but I'm not really bothered. They still have to make the decisions they make.

Meaningless right now, but store this for a later time.

[falcon45ca]

also I miss splints this game and also SVS.

I've got reasons to TR a few players, and as of now I'm looking at Epi, Lime & Kate.

[Wiml]

Here's a general caution that isn't quite relevant yet, but it may become so (and I may not last long enough to promote it when it counts):

I think the prevailing wisdom in a mountainous game with two mafia is that bussing is unlikely. I think this is quite false. Indeed, mountainous games might be the most friendly to bussing, because it cannot be punished by investigative mechanics. If someone flips mafia, don't flatly clear their wagon. That doesn't mean someone has already bussed or will definitely bus -- just give everything the proper due diligence. I also acknowledge that it's possible that mafia methodology might pivot on the basis of me even making this post, but I'm not really bothered. They still have to make the decisions they make.

Meaningless right now, but store this for a later time.

+1ing the sentiment here as well

[Wiml]

I'm very interested in opinions on Roxy from people who have experience playing with her.

[Michelle]

Spoiler: show

Doesn't seem to care about his vote.

His question towards Epi voting Quinn didn't feel like something he was trying to use to solve Epi and didn't look like he cared about the response.

Understood, thanks. I'll stow my thoughts until falcon responds to this.

He'll probably post.






Like this.

Thanks for keeping your reads open Brad, this looks good for you

Can you explain, in detail that I am sure to understand, what you mean by this gif response to post that does concern you nor contain anything posted by you?

Well see I'm playing mafia so generally speaking wolfy behavior always concerns me. Including this.

What's the wolfy behaviour you noticed?

[Kate]

Omg I had a crazy crazy day and now I'm Six pages behind??

Ok ill be in soon.

[Kate]

I'm very interested in opinions on Roxy from people who have experience playing with her.

Just saw this. I know her very well. I'll pay particular attention in my read through.

[Kate]

Michelle
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, falcon45ca, Wiml


One of these 4 names is a wolf. Spoiler. It's not me.

Why are you confident that there's specifically one wolf in those four names?

Given that you would know that you're town, I'm not seeing a compelling reason why a two vote wagon on another player during RVS has to contain a wolf within the three names with the confidence you're suggesting here.

Not that I don't think it's very plausible but I'm specifically interested about hearing about why you're so confident about this.

If this is in fact true, it's not falcon and I really don't see wolf Michelle at this point. Is anyone thinking this was a post made to throw us off of PA herself?

[Kate]

If the following people could provide link representative games of the listed alignments like JJJ did earlier then I'd appreciate it greatly:

@DrWilgy - Town
@Epignosis - Mafia
@falcon45ca - Mafia (not the recent one)
@Kate - Mafia
@Quin - Both
@Roxy - Both

Sorry for the mass ping!

In the last year, I've been mafia 3 times. Once I was very sick with covid and barely remember the game (felt) the other 2 I was a lone wolf (scooby doo and se7en). Which one would you like to see?

[Michelle]

I'm very interested in opinions on Roxy from people who have experience playing with her.

We played but I can't say I can describe meta.

I feel good about the content she posted until now, treating her like a new player for me but experienced in mafia and skilled as both alignments.

[Wiml]

If the following people could provide link representative games of the listed alignments like JJJ did earlier then I'd appreciate it greatly:

@DrWilgy - Town
@Epignosis - Mafia
@falcon45ca - Mafia (not the recent one)
@Kate - Mafia
@Quin - Both
@Roxy - Both

Sorry for the mass ping!

In the last year, I've been mafia 3 times. Once I was very sick with covid and barely remember the game (felt) the other 2 I was a lone wolf (scooby doo and se7en). Which one would you like to see?

Those probably won't help much tbh but I appreciate you letting me know. I've found those games already looking for meta on some other folks so you won't need to link.

[Wiml]

I'm very interested in opinions on Roxy from people who have experience playing with her.

We played but I can't say I can describe meta.

I feel good about the content she posted until now, treating her like a new player for me but experienced in mafia and skilled as both alignments.

Seems fair, yeah. I like Roxy's posting but if you asked me to towncase her then I'd have some level of difficulty putting those feelings into words.

I think I vaguely remember Kate having a good read on Roxy in the Cyberpunk game so I'm looking forward to what she has to say once she's caught up.

[Kate]

This is not real lol

Reads are fluid, especially this early. Keep doing your thing, Abigail.

Okay but like what I mean by this is not real is that 2 people have said that I'm town

Michelle has said why

They've answered

Michelle has said no

And they've been like oh ha yes you are right in fact no

And nobody thinks this is fishy or weird.

It brings to mind that famous W Bush quote

Fool me once shame on you fool me twice uh never fool me again

This is extremely coherent for a tzenon.

Gonna put my vote here for now.

[VOTE: PA] aubergine

[Wiml]

@☆Princess Abigail☆ what can I do to help you get into this game?

[Michelle]

I know Jay didn't ask me about reads. But I will try to make my own list, mainly for myself, to see where I land if I have to voice an opinion about everyone

☆Princess Abigail☆ - I am not convinced about her play, she accused me of omgus and her self claimed towniness is not supported in reads and solving intent

DrWilgy - needs to take care of himself. I don't think his posts are really AI. Not today's chop anyway.

Epignosis - I think he is town. I don't think wolf Epi lets his mate alone to play in a mountainous. Also I like his vote, I have to admit.

falcon45ca - refused a free and easy town read and has fluid reads like he wants to really solve, not to fake a solve.

JaggedJimmyJay - the mastermind manipulator if wolf or top town, it's TBD.

Kate - Kate seems fresh and honest in her takes, probably town

Lime Coke - I am not surprised about his read on me because he usually can get my alignament right. I need more from him and I don't think wolf Brad would attack Falcon like that. Seems like an easy push rn.

Michelle - town

Quin - inactive. Can go either way.

Roxy - if I have to find a word for her, that would be solvy. I liked the reaction to the meta reads, I think we have similar opinion about meta.

Wiml - extremely talkative and an easy poster, Brad's joke about the fear of wolf Wiml speaks for his wolfing skills. However I am ok with calling him above suspicion for now.

[Michelle]

And I have to sleep...

VC

Spoiler: show

Squash your first bug!
Poll runs till Thu Aug 03, 2023 12:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


☆Princess Abigail☆
3
25%
Voters: Epignosis, Michelle, Kate
DrWilgy
0
No votes
Voters: None
Epignosis
1
8%
Voters: falcon45ca
falcon45ca
1
8%
Voters: Lime Coke
JaggedJimmyJay
0
No votes
Voters: None
Kate
0
No votes
Voters: None
Lime Coke
3
25%
Voters: Wiml, DrWilgy, JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle
1
8%
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆
Quin
0
No votes
Voters: None
Roxy
0
No votes
Voters: None
Wiml
0
No votes
Voters: None
Unvote
0
No votes
Voters: None
Spectator
3
25%
Voters: Scotty, Seanzie, Syn
Total votes: 12

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm very interested in knowing Abigail's read on Kate.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Kate's volume trends:

Currently
18 posts

Town
Cyberpunk - 114 posts, 2 cycles (57 per)
Sesame Street - 80 posts, 1 cycle (80 per)
Summer Sh*t - 275 posts, 2 cycles (138 per)
Muppet Babies - 98 posts, 1 cycle (98 per)
Hotdog Fingers - 360 posts, 6 cycles (60 per)
Lawyers, Guns, Money - 344 posts, 4 cycles (86 per)
Bad Dates - 107, 1.5 cycles (71 per) *replacement

Mafia
Felt Mafia 3 - 115 posts, 3 cycles (38 per)
Scooby Doo - 194 posts, 4 cycles (49 per)

I won't call this damning, because every game is circumstantial. But it should be noted that the lowest two post rates are the two mafia games, and this game is on a slow Kate rate. The above list is not comprehensive. I just grabbed a decent handful of what I could find on a quick review of the site Hall of Fame.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@☆Princess Abigail☆

Would you agree that, even if the "first three-vote wagon contains one mafioso in four names" theory is consistently accurate, that you fundamentally break it by causing the wagon to reach three votes yourself?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Reminder to self to fix Sesame Street in the Hall of Fame stats. I misunderstood the alignments.

[Wiml]

Kate's volume trends:

Currently
18 posts

Town
Cyberpunk - 114 posts, 2 cycles (57 per)
Sesame Street - 80 posts, 1 cycle (80 per)
Summer Sh*t - 275 posts, 2 cycles (138 per)
Muppet Babies - 98 posts, 1 cycle (98 per)
Hotdog Fingers - 360 posts, 6 cycles (60 per)
Lawyers, Guns, Money - 344 posts, 4 cycles (86 per)
Bad Dates - 107, 1.5 cycles (71 per) *replacement

Mafia
Felt Mafia 3 - 115 posts, 3 cycles (38 per)
Scooby Doo - 194 posts, 4 cycles (49 per)

I won't call this damning, because every game is circumstantial. But it should be noted that the lowest two post rates are the two mafia games, and this game is on a slow Kate rate. The above list is not comprehensive. I just grabbed a decent handful of what I could find on a quick review of the site Hall of Fame.

viewtopic.php?t=2532

There's also this game, where she averaged 115.5 as a wolf over two cycles. Not sure if it fits into however you're sampling the games but it seems recent enough to be valid to read into for what you're calculating.

Worth noting that both the game I linked and Scooby Doo Kate was apparently a lost wolf whereas Kate said she was ill with covid during Felt mafia further up this page. I think both of those things + the outlier result make sorting her by post count a lot less reliable to read into.

[Quin]

So I was banking on having today off work for this, but alas.

I did a vanity name check at least. All I'm able to say there is that I'm not going feral over the people including me in their PoE's.

Except Epi. What the hell.

I'll be back tonight.

[Quin]

I need Quin.

k

[Wiml]

Welcome Quin!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

viewtopic.php?t=2532

There's also this game, where she averaged 115.5 as a wolf over two cycles. Not sure if it fits into however you're sampling the games but it seems recent enough to be valid to read into for what you're calculating.

Worth noting that both the game I linked and Scooby Doo Kate was apparently a lost wolf whereas Kate said she was ill with covid during Felt mafia further up this page. I think both of those things + the outlier result make sorting her by post count a lot less reliable to read into.

Thanks for bringing that out; I forgot to check full games (we just brought them back after a long hiatus). It's probably enough to just discard the notion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Were the "purple" mafia in that deadly sins game an actual team, i.e., informed minority? I never figured out the details of that setup.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I ask because the red names are explicitly called "mafia" and the purple ones are not. I had assumed them to be independents when I logged that game in the HOF.