[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

[Michelle]

I have to sleep, I will be here in the morning

[DrWilgy]

Gn Michelle

[Wiml]

Fear

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

I'm not a wolf this game because if I were a wolf I'd be more townread.

You were universally town read until today.

Yeah and one more day of that and this game would have locked with my nightkill.

But what I actually meant (semi-jokingly) was that as a wolf I am very confident in my ability to get townreads just from my posting and not interactions with other teammates. It's one of the reasons why I very rarely bus (the other being that I can rarely survive F3 situations due to paranoia about my survival since I tend to get halfway ruled even if I don't bus).

Talk to me about bussing please. Why not?

I don't bus the vast majority of the time.

It's not that I philosophically have an issue with bussing. I simply try to approach games as a wolf in the most +ev way and I rarely consider it to be optimal to bus in the situations I most commonly find myself in:

- I'm a pretty good coach + very active manager in wolf chats and often times my teammates simply do not need to be bussed even if they're normally weaker wolves.

- I am usually too townread in the early game by posting alone to substantially benefit from bussing. If anything, getting excessively townread tends to be detrimental in the long run as I'm a wolf who's biggest weakness is probably somebody saying "just halfway rule him if he's alive too long". Might as well burn that towncred on flipping some villagers instead of cannibalising my partners for minimal gain.

- People are too paranoid of me for me to consistently win F3s. The easy alternatives are to allow other partner/s to bus me and win with less paranoia or to powerwolf and just win with all my partners alive.

- I am confident in my ability to spew my partners town while simultaneously defending them (and spew villagers wolf for after I flip).

Obviously I still need to bus sometimes and if people come into games with me expecting me to powerwolf or for some other reason bussing seems +ev then I'll turn round and weaponise that against them in a heartbeat. But I'm definitely a powerwolf at heart lol.

[Epignosis]

Popping in to [VOTE: Unvote] aubergine for now.

[Epignosis]

Epi what changed from you calling everyone town and having no suspects yesterday to opening the PoE to everyone minus Michelle and Roxy today?

You have been bemoaning the "threadstate." So I found a tree and shook it.

This lines up exactly with what your gameplan for victory needs to be if you're a wolf.

If.

[Epignosis]

Town Core

Wilgy
Roxy
Wiml

Probs Michelle is town and I'm letting earlier emotions get to me again.

I think Kate is less likely to play this way as wolf but I think Kate is unlikely to play this way as either alignment so I'm trying not to read too hard into that

Epi is probs just a wolf.

GGs

Talk to me more about the bolded please. Why the suspicion I have gives you emotions?

I think my feelings for what happened D1 have been pretty on my shoulder and I don't really want to rehash it. I'm acutely aware that my emotional state can sometimes impact my reads negatively.

You're doing a good job there Abi (and I'm sure JJJ agrees as well).

I'd like a minute for rebuttal.

(Just kidding- I get the context)

[Epignosis]

Epi is hard because I have a perpetual bad read on the slot.

Is that what's getting it going for me? I had no idea.

[Wiml]

Epi what changed from you calling everyone town and having no suspects yesterday to opening the PoE to everyone minus Michelle and Roxy today?

You have been bemoaning the "threadstate." So I found a tree and shook it.

This lines up exactly with what your gameplan for victory needs to be if you're a wolf.

If.

How does what you're saying here tie into my thoughts on the threadstate?

(And yeah for the second part, there are obviously logical explanations for how you could have gotten to that point with your reads as town but it's concerning that if I were asked "how does Epi approach this situation here if he's a wolf and needs to win this game?" I'd probably answer "exactly the same approach as he's playing here" so it rings some alarm bells for me).

[Epignosis]

Bruh

Hombre you know why I can't clear you this game, as much as I'd like to.

Why can't you?

Fear

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

Wtf why I'm not even good ...

Appreciate the confession. [VOTE: PA] aubergine

[Wiml]

Epi is hard because I have a perpetual bad read on the slot.

Is that what's getting it going for me? I had no idea.

You've got a playstyle that I also find pretty tough to read tbh.

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

[Epignosis]

Epi is hard because I have a perpetual bad read on the slot.

Is that what's getting it going for me? I had no idea.

You've got a playstyle that I also find pretty tough to read tbh.

It's called a sense of humor.

[Epignosis]

Nobody is lynching Wiml today. That would be epically goofy.

Maybe Day 4.

[DrWilgy]

Epi is hard because I have a perpetual bad read on the slot.

Is that what's getting it going for me? I had no idea.

Always here to help

[Epignosis]

I'll say one thing if somebody can find me a soapbox.

That'll do, thank you very much Wilgy, you are a gentleman and scho- HEY There's a fucking nail sticking out of this one!

Ahem.

I get the rationale behind "POE" and why it's appealing, but I don't think it's an advantageous way to carry on in general. I think it's rather dangerous.

It's psychologically appealing to feel like you've got it in the bag three days out. You don't though. It's also demoralizing, particularly to those who have neither the time nor inclination to post a great deal.

I think Quin showed up, saw he was halfway out the door and said "Fuck it mates, I'll be at the barbie" or whatever folks in his neck of the woods say when they can't be bothered.

"Town core" is even worse. That's a parlay bet. If one leg of the parlay is wrong, you lose.

So yeah, JJJ is dead and I'm pissing in his tool box. And he can't do a damn thing about it but rage from beyond the grave and dream of how he'd get me if he was alive. Alas. Alack. Alex Trekbek.

For real, I understand those tools. They can have their place and be effective despite what I said above.

I definitely don't think they're very helpful here. I say that because Lime Coke, 50% of the mafia faction, is dead and had a whopping 26 posts. There's so little to work with.

As Wilgy (and perhaps someone else) mentioned, we're effectively hunting a serial killer at this point.

So when someone says, the POE is "Quin, Epi, and Kate," I know right there the damn thing is 33% fucked. I now know it's 67% fucked. You're banking on it not being 100% fucked.

That will be all Wilg- SON OF A BITCH how'd you get another nail in there while I was addressing the crowd?

[Epignosis]

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

I'm not a wolf this game because if I were a wolf I'd be more townread.

You were universally town read until today.

Yeah and one more day of that and this game would have locked with my nightkill.

But what I actually meant (semi-jokingly) was that as a wolf I am very confident in my ability to get townreads just from my posting and not interactions with other teammates. It's one of the reasons why I very rarely bus (the other being that I can rarely survive F3 situations due to paranoia about my survival since I tend to get halfway ruled even if I don't bus).

Talk to me about bussing please. Why not?

I don't bus the vast majority of the time.

It's not that I philosophically have an issue with bussing. I simply try to approach games as a wolf in the most +ev way and I rarely consider it to be optimal to bus in the situations I most commonly find myself in:

- I'm a pretty good coach + very active manager in wolf chats and often times my teammates simply do not need to be bussed even if they're normally weaker wolves.

- I am usually too townread in the early game by posting alone to substantially benefit from bussing. If anything, getting excessively townread tends to be detrimental in the long run as I'm a wolf who's biggest weakness is probably somebody saying "just halfway rule him if he's alive too long". Might as well burn that towncred on flipping some villagers instead of cannibalising my partners for minimal gain.

- People are too paranoid of me for me to consistently win F3s. The easy alternatives are to allow other partner/s to bus me and win with less paranoia or to powerwolf and just win with all my partners alive.

- I am confident in my ability to spew my partners town while simultaneously defending them (and spew villagers wolf for after I flip).

Obviously I still need to bus sometimes and if people come into games with me expecting me to powerwolf or for some other reason bussing seems +ev then I'll turn round and weaponise that against them in a heartbeat. But I'm definitely a powerwolf at heart lol.

I don't know you and you don't know me but

Spoiler: show

[Epignosis]

Epi what changed from you calling everyone town and having no suspects yesterday to opening the PoE to everyone minus Michelle and Roxy today?

You have been bemoaning the "threadstate." So I found a tree and shook it.

This lines up exactly with what your gameplan for victory needs to be if you're a wolf.

If.

How does what you're saying here tie into my thoughts on the threadstate?

I made the best case I could make against you last night. Shit, I even woke up feeling kind of good about it.

I was hoping to see more than 80% of the posts being yours, but we'll settle for what we get I suppose.

As for what you call "threadstate," I think things are stagnant, and hopefully my diatribe above sheds some light on why I think that is.

(And yeah for the second part, there are obviously logical explanations for how you could have gotten to that point with your reads as town but it's concerning that if I were asked "how does Epi approach this situation here if he's a wolf and needs to win this game?" I'd probably answer "exactly the same approach as he's playing here" so it rings some alarm bells for me).

And sometimes I just make shit up and see what happens.

[Roxy]

Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

[Epignosis]

So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

[Roxy]

So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

How embarrassing.

"So my gut says Epi is bad but my brain says he's good".

[Kate]

Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

I'm really sorry. I can't do any quick reads bc I haven't even read. I am so sorry. I never play this way and I would never use real life to cover my wolfness. This slot is civ. I've asked for a sub.

I'll see you all in a few weeks after Andrew is gone to school.

Love you all.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Fear

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

Wtf why I'm not even good ...

You're amazing, don't undersell yourself.

I've lost like 2 of my 3 wolf Rands this year and got D1d in 1

I'm trashhhh

I just lost 2/3 wolf rands this week and you carried my dumbass to victory in champs.

You're goat

If I carried why am I a tier 2 sub... don't put that champs victory on me I played trash you were amazing and died because of my push

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Fear

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

Wtf why I'm not even good ...

You're amazing, don't undersell yourself.

I've lost like 2 of my 3 wolf Rands this year and got D1d in 1

I'm trashhhh

Don't say that, it's not true. You should think higher of yourself

I barely think i deserve my girlfriend

I dunno hard to do

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Hombre you know why I can't clear you this game, as much as I'd like to.

Why can't you?

Fear

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

Wtf why I'm not even good ...

Appreciate the confession. [VOTE: PA] aubergine

Your welcome.

I kinda town read this

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Vote Kate

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

Wait maybe I don't town read it the unvote came too fast

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

I thought Epi jumping on the sudden Wiml push was wolfy. I still... kinda think that. Originally I also didn't like how Michelle was treating Wiml but thinking deeper I understand what they were getting at and think the push comes from the right place

Epis push continues to make me nervous.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

I'm really sorry. I can't do any quick reads bc I haven't even read. I am so sorry. I never play this way and I would never use real life to cover my wolfness. This slot is civ. I've asked for a sub.

I'll see you all in a few weeks after Andrew is gone to school.

Love you all.

Fuck I town read this

Unvote

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Fuck fuck fuck

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Vote Epi

Aaaa

[DrWilgy]

Do you fear Abi more than you fear me?

Yes

Wtf why I'm not even good ...

You're amazing, don't undersell yourself.

I've lost like 2 of my 3 wolf Rands this year and got D1d in 1

I'm trashhhh

I just lost 2/3 wolf rands this week and you carried my dumbass to victory in champs.

You're goat

If I carried why am I a tier 2 sub... don't put that champs victory on me I played trash you were amazing and died because of my push

Incorrect. Your play to IC yourself in response to the tragedy that was Darth Wilgus the Flash Wagoner, set us back in motion and preserved good momentum for the town! I contribute that highly to T victory of G1.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I wish it mattered... watching semis without being there hurts.

[Epignosis]

Let's talk Abi. Your vote is on me. It shouldn't be.

[DrWilgy]

I wish it mattered... watching semis without being there hurts.

I think it does matter.

[DrWilgy]

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

You worry too much about me my friend.

[Michelle]

Good morning!
I feel the game is stagnant.

Probably not the best day to go outside the PoE because of low activity.

I see Wilgy is choosing the easiest path.

[Wiml]

Morning folks.

[Michelle]

Spoiler: show

Squash your third bug!
Poll runs till Tue Aug 08, 2023 12:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


☆Princess Abigail☆
0
No votes
Voters: None
DrWilgy
0
No votes
Voters: None
Epignosis
1
11%
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆
Kate
1
11%
Voters: DrWilgy
Michelle
0
No votes
Voters: None
Roxy
0
No votes
Voters: None
Wiml
0
No votes
Voters: None
Unvote
2
22%
Voters: Michelle, Epignosis
Spectator
5
56%
Voters: Seanzie, JaggedJimmyJay, S~V~S, Syn, Kate
Total votes: 9

[Wiml]

I wish it mattered... watching semis without being there hurts.

Fwiw as a past finalist and (technically) past jury member I really don't think those games are as important as they're made out to be. Champs things in general are severely overhyped on MU.

Champs progression favours specific playstyles more than others and there's a very small sample size so how highly you rank isn't necessarily indicative of how skilled you are.

[Wiml]

I'll say one thing if somebody can find me a soapbox.

That'll do, thank you very much Wilgy, you are a gentleman and scho- HEY There's a fucking nail sticking out of this one!

Ahem.

I get the rationale behind "POE" and why it's appealing, but I don't think it's an advantageous way to carry on in general. I think it's rather dangerous.

It's psychologically appealing to feel like you've got it in the bag three days out. You don't though. It's also demoralizing, particularly to those who have neither the time nor inclination to post a great deal.

I think Quin showed up, saw he was halfway out the door and said "Fuck it mates, I'll be at the barbie" or whatever folks in his neck of the woods say when they can't be bothered.

"Town core" is even worse. That's a parlay bet. If one leg of the parlay is wrong, you lose.

So yeah, JJJ is dead and I'm pissing in his tool box. And he can't do a damn thing about it but rage from beyond the grave and dream of how he'd get me if he was alive. Alas. Alack. Alex Trekbek.

For real, I understand those tools. They can have their place and be effective despite what I said above.

I definitely don't think they're very helpful here. I say that because Lime Coke, 50% of the mafia faction, is dead and had a whopping 26 posts. There's so little to work with.

As Wilgy (and perhaps someone else) mentioned, we're effectively hunting a serial killer at this point.

So when someone says, the POE is "Quin, Epi, and Kate," I know right there the damn thing is 33% fucked. I now know it's 67% fucked. You're banking on it not being 100% fucked.

That will be all Wilg- SON OF A BITCH how'd you get another nail in there while I was addressing the crowd?

I understand and appreciate this sentiment but I'll be real and say that I'm not going to be fundamentally changing my playstyle here. I appreviate your concerns and am aware that several of them are valid but it's simply the most accurate way for me to be able to find wolves and, imo, the most reliably accurate way to find wolves in general.

Villagers are generally much easier to find to an accuracy level worth betting the game on that wolves are because they're actually trying to be found whereas wolves are actively trying to deceive you.

I'd also disagree that we're hunting for a serial killer in the traditional sense. Serial killers typically don't have TMI for the vast majority of the game and can genuinely solve of they so like (same with non-pack wolves which is why I don't like them as a mechanic) but a solo mafia member does still have TMI. They still know that every player they're trying to push on or townread is town for sure. So finding people by demonstrating that TMI or a lack thereof in their solving is still possible.

But yes, I'll admit that POE strats aren't perfect and can definitely cause issues like you've brought up here and I'll be trying to keep that in mind even if I'm not going to change my playstyle because of them.

[Wiml]

Yes

I'm not a wolf this game because if I were a wolf I'd be more townread.

You were universally town read until today.

Yeah and one more day of that and this game would have locked with my nightkill.

But what I actually meant (semi-jokingly) was that as a wolf I am very confident in my ability to get townreads just from my posting and not interactions with other teammates. It's one of the reasons why I very rarely bus (the other being that I can rarely survive F3 situations due to paranoia about my survival since I tend to get halfway ruled even if I don't bus).

Talk to me about bussing please. Why not?

I don't bus the vast majority of the time.

It's not that I philosophically have an issue with bussing. I simply try to approach games as a wolf in the most +ev way and I rarely consider it to be optimal to bus in the situations I most commonly find myself in:

- I'm a pretty good coach + very active manager in wolf chats and often times my teammates simply do not need to be bussed even if they're normally weaker wolves.

- I am usually too townread in the early game by posting alone to substantially benefit from bussing. If anything, getting excessively townread tends to be detrimental in the long run as I'm a wolf who's biggest weakness is probably somebody saying "just halfway rule him if he's alive too long". Might as well burn that towncred on flipping some villagers instead of cannibalising my partners for minimal gain.

- People are too paranoid of me for me to consistently win F3s. The easy alternatives are to allow other partner/s to bus me and win with less paranoia or to powerwolf and just win with all my partners alive.

- I am confident in my ability to spew my partners town while simultaneously defending them (and spew villagers wolf for after I flip).

Obviously I still need to bus sometimes and if people come into games with me expecting me to powerwolf or for some other reason bussing seems +ev then I'll turn round and weaponise that against them in a heartbeat. But I'm definitely a powerwolf at heart lol.

I don't know you and you don't know me but

Spoiler: show

Thank you!

[Wiml]

I'll probably back off of Kate for now and see how things progress with her slot.

I don't really think she's a hit but I don't think I could ever fully remove her from my PoE with current posts in good faith.

[Wiml]

I understand that in Felt Mafia Kate was ill so that wolf game was nowhere near the upper end of her wolf range.

But she really didn't do much solving in that game at all (I think she did literally nothing outside of fluff for the first day or two iirc) so her coming in pretty confidently pushing reads in this game is probably a good look for her.

[Wiml]

Her ISO is mildly wolfy outside of that though so shrug.

[Wiml]

Why are yall voting for 7up?

Let me guess, without reading, princess Abigail has used ATE to get yall to move off her?

Mmmmmmmmmm

[Wiml]

Why are yall voting for 7up?

Talk to me about what you find in his ISO

Carbonation, sugar and artificial flavorings.

I just played 2 games with him.

1. Bad. Was quiet and evasive, but popping in and out and still personable.

2. Good. More involved in solving. Much more. Still personable.

And then just not making a stance on Lime at all.

It's such a strange set of interactions but I don't yet have a confident stance on it.

[Wiml]

Ok caught up.

My thoughts have been all over the place today.

My read of Epi is based on I'm always wrong in my gut about him so I just call him opposite and move on and has been a pretty good strategy so far. So but says Epi us bad but brain says he's good.

My Wigly read is a bit shaky I was all good thinking he was town until---- he started posting. I can't help it. It makes me nervous.

My Kate read feels like I possibly made it on quicksand. I'm trying very hard to not suspect her I *know* for a fact that she is busy. But to not post at all? Not even a couple of quick reads? Idk,idk,idk. I feel icky just thinking she could be bad.

My Princess read is all vibe. I really feel they are town. I'm just vibing with their posts. I cannot seem to make you pop up to mention you but I have a question. What do you think of Michelle/Epi vs Wiml? Let's chat about it please.

Michelle and Wiml damn. I have to sleep on all I've digested in the last few pages. I really have you both as town now I have Epi and Michelle and their cases on Wiml.

If I go on gut I feel Wiml does come across as a bit cornered only bc they kept trying to shut down their investigation.

Princess please respond to my query.

For the record, I was shutting down the questioning because it wasn't productive for either of us to continue the conversation and not because I couldn't answer.

I made sure to address most of the major points of the case but I wasn't going to spend hours self defending when I had better things to spend that time on.

[Wiml]

@Michelle what was your read on Brad towards EoD1?

I think I remember that you acknowledged that he seemed to be lolcatting, what kept your vote on Abigail in those circumstances?

[Wiml]

Lime Coke seems consistently confident throughout his ISO that people will townread Michelle even at the point early in D1 while she was getting pushed.

Seems pretty telling.

[Wiml]

In hindsight, if Abigail is spewed town by the early shrugread from Lime then Kate probably should be by the same logic.

Since I'm sure if Lime was asked to expand his read on Kate he'd have given a similar answer to his read on Abigail given how he framed it.