Severance [Evening Four]

[leetic]

I don't know why Bereft voted the hedge option, but damn their posting method is just so cryptic. If they don't get serious this phase there will be issues.

What was Robyn's final read on schweppes?

I didn't read EoD and I won't

Robyn dipped for half the phase, so I doubt any read they posted has any sort of finality.

[leetic]

I have reason to believe this might be true because I am the connection point for Porscha who clearly was voted out in the other thread and I received an extra vote

How do you know this? I have no idea who, if anyone, is my "connection point"

[leetic]

I have reason to believe this might be true because I am the connection point for Porscha who clearly was voted out in the other thread and I received an extra vote

How do you know this? I have no idea who, if anyone, is my "connection point"

Okay, so I read up, and apparently you're neighbors? Which is weird, since I don't have one. Does anyone else here have a neighbor from the other thread?

[leetic]

I actually think Ted > Pyx > Dizzy/TSP just wins tbh

Some tinfoil on Gira Bereft Leetic though

prolly 1/4

Which one out of four?

[leetic]

Why is it that when I show up, it seems everyone else decides to leave?

[leetic]

Although if people truly are connected to others, if there a possibility of w/t pairings? I would assume there are, for the sake of balance. But none of this explains what to do with the twentyseventh player.

[Gira]

i don’t like ran’s analysis of mac death and also gira seems much less villagery than he normally is

fmpov the game is harder than it’s being portrayed. if the wolfteam was bad, i’d feel some type of way about it by now

mac’s entire PoE was voting me afaict and have NAI poasts, either spammers or just not really wolfy people. im not inclined to wolfread them just by voting me cuz it seems like villas on this site have a hard on for not giving me space and wolf reading me

i know i said rondo was outed but something about his t0an and positioning is making me doubt it

i guess im not ghanna push gira yet cuz i can see dizzy being a possible wolf, but it seems like yet another push that doesn’t have much reason to be a wolf other than not posting a lot. i did think dizzy’s vote on robyn was weak and the switcharoo from ran to robyn to be weird as it’s two polar opposite votes without much seeming development in between, but still, meh

go ahead and push me for all i care

[Gira]

Idk don’t make much of it

Do you still have Dyslexicon and Abby as wolfreads or have your views changed in light of the flip?

I think Dizzy looks maybe marginally better from the vote dip, Abby looks bad still

What about Dizzy's parked vote looks good? And can you elaborate on your read of Abby?

The atmosphere around the Robyn push shifted a lot, for Dizzy as a wolf to drop the vote in that manner would require in my mind maybe an unreasonable amount of foresight. This is somewhat of a bad explanation but I just think like it’s not an indicator of agenda. Then again, Dizzy is a good wolf and maybe knows Mac well enough to figure it out.

I don’t think Abby has contributed to the goals of the town in this game and moreover has received little attention and just occasionally some spare defenders saying “read her iso” (which ok I haven’t done). Granted we haven’t launched any wolves so no one has exactly contributed much. I also think it’s bizarre that people keep treating it like it’s a bad push. Like ??? No one has offered a concrete reason that Abby is towny, besides possibly if someone wants to make a spew read.

i don't think abigail seemingly "not contributing" is a valid tell for her, she's been a massive fluffposter in every game i've seen her in, her doing that is a nulltell. when she's actually said stuff about the game it feels fine.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don’t suspect Abigail for straight fluffposting

[TonyStarkPrime]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

[leetic]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

Do tell.

[Gira]

Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?

If that were the case, I would expect he'd be killed for having an incorrect townread and not necessarily an incorrect scumread, like if he were hard shielding a wolf.

(hes gonna hate that I'm saying this since it risks tearing up the towncore, but I mean from a wolf perspective it's more beneficial to kill a loud townie with thread pull who accidentally townreads a wolf imo)

But I legit just think he was killed for being super towny, and I'm not reading into whether his reads were accurate or not, beyond what I already formed opinions on while he was around.

i like highly disagree with this from a theory POV, but as this is all speculative there's no use to it

but to use a real concrete example from this game, mac was hard townreading me and now that he's dead you have shitters like bereft and tsp and insomnia wanting to kill me for no actual discernable reason. mac has never failed to recognize me as town when i am town, he would be shutting that down immediately, he is probably cringing at the fact that there is an attempted push on me at all

but no one actually cares who dead players were townreading. as far as the wolves are concerned i am now a viable mis-elim and there is almost certainly one who is trying for that

insomnia demonstrably can't actually read me and so him suspecting me feels the most believable of the 3

[Gira]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

i still think it's relevant and worth commenting on why people are reading her the way they are

[pyxxy]

that doesn’t make it better

Why the vote was 4 to 5 and than 76 people appeared to make it like 3 to 8 in favor of robyn immediately when it got to close for comfort.

Ted is wolf.

hey bud

please review the tapes

Spoiler: show

Bereft
0
No votes
Voters: None
Dubz
2
14%
Voters: tedxtr, leetic
Dyslexicon
0
No votes
Voters: None
Gira
0
No votes
Voters: None
leetic
1
7%
Voters: pyxxy
MacDougall
0
No votes
Voters: None
☆Princess Abigail☆
1
7%
Voters: TonyStarkPrime
pyxxy
0
No votes
Voters: None
Ranmilia
0
No votes
Voters: None
robyn
5
36%
Voters: Ranmilia, WindwardAway, Dyslexicon, Gira, MacDougall
tedxtr
2
14%
Voters: RondoDimBuckle, Bereft
TonyStarkPrime
0
No votes
Voters: None
WindwardAway
0
No votes
Voters: None
No elimination
0
No votes
Voters: None
No vote / Unvote
1
7%
Voters: robyn

after this

*is the shadow vote +1 modify in effect

I moved from leetic (1 -> 0) to ted (2 -> 3)
WWA moved from robyn (6* -> 5*) to ted (3 -> 4)
leetic moved from RondDubz (3*->2*) to robyn (5* -> 6*)
ted moved from RonDubz (2* -> 1*) to robyn (6* -> 7*)
Abigail voted for ted (4 -> 5)
WWA switched back from ted (5 -> 4) to robyn (7* -> 8*)
tsp moved from Abigail (1 -> 0) to robyn (8* -> 9*)

because I can see certain people already trying to pre-flip robyn and hey, I just want to help y'all do the work, because I'm a nice person

I made this post on D1 specifically for anyone wanting to do exactly what you're doing

[pyxxy]

Wait no this is news to me. I did not know you knew Porscha was your innie.

I find it weird though, since this effectively gives us extra clears. Unclear. ~ Schweppes

Yeah I thought I made it pretty obvious when I was drunk because I was basically like Porscha is never gonna betray me

When people were asking her for her read on me and I also tried to hint that we were tied together. But I didn't think about it mechanically till you said something and I think it bakes a lot of sense

The night kills are attached to both threads so neither thread gets a stump off the night kill but the day elim is moved to their attachment point in the other thread

Me and Porscha have a mason chat. I assume robyn did too and that's why there's a very clear statement of people being permanently removed when their anchor point is killed. I can only assume Mac and nutella are then connected.

We could test this by killing me but that kills a town.

When did the mason chat with Porscha start?

[Gira]

I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.

On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).

Well, the level 0 read is that Bereft and TSP are wolves, Bereft was getting buried by Robyn and everyone generally, and then TSP came in to break up the momentum and say "the obvious wolf yeet is bad, it can't be that easy day 1, why don't we vote [one of the towniest players and a social player] instead, see they must be wolves because they DON'T have votes, let's play opposites land where wolfy people are towny and towny people with no pressure must be wolfy!"

I don't think Ted is towny exactly but I think he is less scummy than my main suspects and doesn't fit in many teams with them.

Saying "ted/robyn were the wagons yesterday" is i think a very inaccurate description of the day. Bereft, Dizzy and Gira were all serious wagons at points as well, arguably Rondo too. If you want to look at only the late day then it's more like "Robyn vs [resolving ted vs rondo]" and I could not hazard a guess where wolves would fall on that. I don't think Bereft/Rondo is out of the question. I think it's more important to look at the... how to explain it. The flow of the thread rather than the votals on paper when looking at wagonomics like that. Like Bereft only ever had, like, 3 actual votes on him but mid day it felt like that was a solid wagon that was very likely to go over and at eod people would pile on unless something big happened. That is what I mean by spiritual votes. Although mac disagreed with me on that. But still that's how I think.

imho it's rrrrarely that simple and only an exceptionally ballsy/crazy scum player makes a push that direct to save a teammate

and if anything my knowledge of TSP is that he's very, very heavy handed with the distancing as mafia

a lot of what he posts comes across as towny in demeanor but i think his votes and pushes are objectively wolfsiding and the more he does it the more likely it becomes that he's just utterly full of it and trying to push a scum agenda

[leetic]

Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):

How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?

If anyone has any more feel free to add them

This is getting pretty irritating.

1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.

None of this is that hard to puzzle out.

~ Schweppes

Oh wait point 3

Omg...

I have a theory. I think everyone is connected to someone from the other thread right. So I wonder if schweppes is just right here that it's the net collective of who had their corresponding partner recieve the most votes

I have reason to believe this might be true because I am the connection point for Porscha who clearly was voted out in the other thread and I received an extra vote

I also think the reason Nutella AND Mac might be dead than is that they are connected. The wolfs probably get one joint night kill but it kills and fully eliminates the connection point in BOTH threads. I think when you die you become a stump in the other thread unless your connection point is dead because if I die I know for fact my connection point will die Porscha will die.

If this is true, it adds a pseudo-lovers aspect to the setup, which would mean that wolves would have to avoid killing people they're paired with. That assumes w/t pairings are possible, but I don't see why they aren't as too many potential mason pairs seem unbalanced. There's a question of whether Porscha is town, they said they were but that would be an easy lie, though we should get someone else here to corroborate that. Of course, both of the first lynches in the other thread could be wolves, but in that case we don't have much to worry about from the other thread anyway.

[pyxxy]

Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):

How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?

If anyone has any more feel free to add them

This is getting pretty irritating.

1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.

None of this is that hard to puzzle out.

~ Schweppes

If one and two are correct, why did nutella exit now instead of at EoD?

if nutella is the nk from the other thread, then nutella died when our thread closed, so makes more sense to announce when our thread re-opens

T1 = work thread aka not us
T2 = evening thread aka us

T1: |<----W1---->|<-N1->|<----W2--*
T2: |<-P0->|<-----E1---->|<-N1->|<-E2*

*being the current time for each thread, theoretically speaking

so my guess is Nutella was the nk for T1N1, gets announced at our SOD E2

not sure how this factors into Porscha's situation, given she said she gets post again during our night? and with robyn's situation we don't get to learn if our DKs end up in the other thread (oh well, that's in us)

for anyone with Porscha-related mech questions

just wait 24 hours and we'll see if I'm right about the above timings

I tried to draw the timeline is a helpful manner :3

[tedxtr]

I actually think Ted > Pyx > Dizzy/TSP just wins tbh

Some tinfoil on Gira Bereft Leetic though

prolly 1/4

Which one out of four?

possibly dizzy

[leetic]

I actually think Ted > Pyx > Dizzy/TSP just wins tbh

Some tinfoil on Gira Bereft Leetic though

prolly 1/4

Which one out of four?

possibly dizzy

Do you TR pyxxy and TSP, or just find them unlikely to be paired?

[tedxtr]

i think it’s irrelevant to discuss about pairings rn, but that theory seems unlikely to me

or at least i don’t hold the complexity of thought to see how it’d work

[leetic]

Also, will the threads merge? Presumably they will by D3 or D4 as you wouldn't want a situation where town wins one thread but wolves win the other, but I can't be sure just yet.

[tedxtr]

I actually think Ted > Pyx > Dizzy/TSP just wins tbh

Some tinfoil on Gira Bereft Leetic though

prolly 1/4

Which one out of four?

possibly dizzy

Do you TR pyxxy and TSP, or just find them unlikely to be paired?

i tr tsp, and for pyxxy i haven’t seen anything wolfy and they’ve had villagery moments. not particularly inclined to kill them

i keep seeing names mentioned as wolves and i just see 0 cases associated with those names. like i see names thrown around and i legit have 0 thoughts on why that person would be a wolf

kinda like you see a name being thrown in thread and think “they could be a wolf for x,y,z, yeah”. in here i have none of that thought process

and ideally you’d want to lunch on reasons, good reasons, for why someone would be a wolf

[leetic]

Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):

How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?

If anyone has any more feel free to add them

This is getting pretty irritating.

1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.

None of this is that hard to puzzle out.

~ Schweppes

Oh wait point 3

Omg...

I have a theory. I think everyone is connected to someone from the other thread right. So I wonder if schweppes is just right here that it's the net collective of who had their corresponding partner recieve the most votes

I have reason to believe this might be true because I am the connection point for Porscha who clearly was voted out in the other thread and I received an extra vote

I also think the reason Nutella AND Mac might be dead than is that they are connected. The wolfs probably get one joint night kill but it kills and fully eliminates the connection point in BOTH threads. I think when you die you become a stump in the other thread unless your connection point is dead because if I die I know for fact my connection point will die Porscha will die.

Is your neighbor chat still active? If so, you could be asking these questions for us!

[tedxtr]

unless you count “they haven’t done much” or “they haven’t played in a way i’d want them to” as a thought, but i don’t. example: robyn lunch was cuz they were apparently not posting anything of substance

we’re hitting the same trend with dizzy, although with dizzy i can see actual tangible reasons, even tho they’re thin

[tedxtr]

abi’s point above isn’t valid, because rondo and robyn both received additional votes, and only 1 person can die per day ldo

[tedxtr]

is there any reason we’re assuming lvl 100 things instead of lvl 0 nutella died to nk in the other thread, mac died to nk in this thread?

[Gira]

I actually think Ted > Pyx > Dizzy/TSP just wins tbh

Some tinfoil on Gira Bereft Leetic though

i would kill dizzy and tsp well before i killed the former two

maybe i'm a sucker but i still like pyxxy's posting, stuff like him running off with his theorizing about leetic being mafia yesterday feels like real thoughts where he's forming independent conclusions and really thinking about the game

[leetic]

MacDougall and nutella both look like they are expected nightkill options. I mean, there's a chance they're paired, but it seems like a hell of a coincidence if so. Thus, I think Abby's theory is unlikely.

[tedxtr]

It’s not only unlikely, but impossible.

how do we explain robyn getting a vote too then? and rondo, assuming he isn’t lying?

[leetic]

is there any reason we’re assuming lvl 100 things instead of lvl 0 nutella died to nk in the other thread, mac died to nk in this thread?

The thing with Abby is that she knows more about how pairings work than I, and presumably most people in this thread, do. But if she's a wolf, she could be intentionally misleading us, so we have to keep that in mind as well.

[leetic]

It’s not only unlikely, but impossible.

how do we explain robyn getting a vote too then? and rondo, assuming he isn’t lying?

We don't know who their partners, if anyone, are, plus we don't know anything about the wagons on the other thread besides that Porscha was presumably on top

But by this point, I feel the mechanical talk is distracting us. We'll have more answers soon.

[tedxtr]

i can’t tag her on mobile, smh

did she ever explain how she knew she was connected?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?

If that were the case, I would expect he'd be killed for having an incorrect townread and not necessarily an incorrect scumread, like if he were hard shielding a wolf.

(hes gonna hate that I'm saying this since it risks tearing up the towncore, but I mean from a wolf perspective it's more beneficial to kill a loud townie with thread pull who accidentally townreads a wolf imo)

But I legit just think he was killed for being super towny, and I'm not reading into whether his reads were accurate or not, beyond what I already formed opinions on while he was around.

i like highly disagree with this from a theory POV, but as this is all speculative there's no use to it

but to use a real concrete example from this game, mac was hard townreading me and now that he's dead you have shitters like bereft and tsp and insomnia wanting to kill me for no actual discernable reason. mac has never failed to recognize me as town when i am town, he would be shutting that down immediately, he is probably cringing at the fact that there is an attempted push on me at all

but no one actually cares who dead players were townreading. as far as the wolves are concerned i am now a viable mis-elim and there is almost certainly one who is trying for that

insomnia demonstrably can't actually read me and so him suspecting me feels the most believable of the 3

If I were given the ability to flip any five players in the game immediately you would not be on that list

[TonyStarkPrime]

To be clear

[TonyStarkPrime]

But also I agree with the analysis

[Gira]

It’s not only unlikely, but impossible.

how do we explain robyn getting a vote too then? and rondo, assuming he isn’t lying?

We don't know who their partners, if anyone, are, plus we don't know anything about the wagons on the other thread besides that Porscha was presumably on top

But by this point, I feel the mechanical talk is distracting us. We'll have more answers soon.

well, if you're the one saying it then i don't have to be the one telling you you're spending too much time on it

[leetic]

i can’t tag her on mobile, smh

did she ever explain how she knew she was connected?

By BTSC, I believe. She says Masons, but Neighbors is also a possibility.

[tedxtr]

that’s not proof for connections all around, lol

there being 2 masons doesn’t mean everyone is somehow related

[TonyStarkPrime]

I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.

On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).

Well, the level 0 read is that Bereft and TSP are wolves, Bereft was getting buried by Robyn and everyone generally, and then TSP came in to break up the momentum and say "the obvious wolf yeet is bad, it can't be that easy day 1, why don't we vote [one of the towniest players and a social player] instead, see they must be wolves because they DON'T have votes, let's play opposites land where wolfy people are towny and towny people with no pressure must be wolfy!"

I don't think Ted is towny exactly but I think he is less scummy than my main suspects and doesn't fit in many teams with them.

Saying "ted/robyn were the wagons yesterday" is i think a very inaccurate description of the day. Bereft, Dizzy and Gira were all serious wagons at points as well, arguably Rondo too. If you want to look at only the late day then it's more like "Robyn vs [resolving ted vs rondo]" and I could not hazard a guess where wolves would fall on that. I don't think Bereft/Rondo is out of the question. I think it's more important to look at the... how to explain it. The flow of the thread rather than the votals on paper when looking at wagonomics like that. Like Bereft only ever had, like, 3 actual votes on him but mid day it felt like that was a solid wagon that was very likely to go over and at eod people would pile on unless something big happened. That is what I mean by spiritual votes. Although mac disagreed with me on that. But still that's how I think.

imho it's rrrrarely that simple and only an exceptionally ballsy/crazy scum player makes a push that direct to save a teammate

and if anything my knowledge of TSP is that he's very, very heavy handed with the distancing as mafia

a lot of what he posts comes across as towny in demeanor but i think his votes and pushes are objectively wolfsiding and the more he does it the more likely it becomes that he's just utterly full of it and trying to push a scum agenda

While I’m on it 1) I think TSP-spew narratives have been fairly well discredited [hopefully] but in my defense 2) second and third paragraphs seem contradictory to me

[tedxtr]

[VOTE: dizzaaaaaay ] aubergine

wya

[TonyStarkPrime]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

Do tell.

The Abigail mech post was super speculative in a way that wolves — who probably know — might be scared to make, and I think Abigail has been spewed town by all of my other tinfoil wolf reads

[tedxtr]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

Do tell.

The Abigail mech post was super speculative in a way that wolves — who probably know — might be scared to make, and I think Abigail has been spewed town by all of my other tinfoil wolf reads

this might be a read of all times

but at least it looks villagery

[TonyStarkPrime]

Five flips are dizzy rondo bereft ran and Abigail narrowly over Ted before Leetic asks

[TonyStarkPrime]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

Do tell.

The Abigail mech post was super speculative in a way that wolves — who probably know — might be scared to make, and I think Abigail has been spewed town by all of my other tinfoil wolf reads

this might be a read of all times

but at least it looks villagery

I had been waiting for the pairing speculation and it actually seemed bizarre to me that (given what I learned from reading the synopsis of the show) some mechanically inclined people just seemed to be avoiding the topic

[Gira]

imho it's rrrrarely that simple and only an exceptionally ballsy/crazy scum player makes a push that direct to save a teammate

and if anything my knowledge of TSP is that he's very, very heavy handed with the distancing as mafia

a lot of what he posts comes across as towny in demeanor but i think his votes and pushes are objectively wolfsiding and the more he does it the more likely it becomes that he's just utterly full of it and trying to push a scum agenda

While I’m on it 1) I think TSP-spew narratives have been fairly well discredited [hopefully] but in my defense 2) second and third paragraphs seem contradictory to me

not really it's a matter of timing and positioning

you can throw shade on your partners all day but still make sure your main votes are pushing scum agenda

and atp your susses are increasingly egregious to the point where you should be killed for them, tbqh

[TonyStarkPrime]

Idk

[pyxxy]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

Do tell.

The Abigail mech post was super speculative in a way that wolves — who probably know — might be scared to make, and I think Abigail has been spewed town by all of my other tinfoil wolf reads

this might be a read of all times

but at least it looks villagery

I had been waiting for the pairing speculation and it actually seemed bizarre to me that (given what I learned from reading the synopsis of the show) some mechanically inclined people just seemed to be avoiding the topic

it's like I don't even fucking exist

[TonyStarkPrime]

Seems wrong, people in this thread are happily pushing way worse targets to me

[TonyStarkPrime]

Also somewhat moot because I think I might be past it

Do tell.

The Abigail mech post was super speculative in a way that wolves — who probably know — might be scared to make, and I think Abigail has been spewed town by all of my other tinfoil wolf reads

this might be a read of all times

but at least it looks villagery

I had been waiting for the pairing speculation and it actually seemed bizarre to me that (given what I learned from reading the synopsis of the show) some mechanically inclined people just seemed to be avoiding the topic

it's like I don't even fucking exist

I had already said something about you