Severance [Evening Four]

[RondoDimBuckle]

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

I had to delete the poll to get rid of the issue. Please recast your votes as soon as you see this. This also means we lose the automated poll deadline. I will discuss how to handle that when the end of day is near.

lol, I think its just a host problem that the poll breaks once per game. If it doesnt you're doing it wrong

[pyxxy]

s/flail/goes manic but otherwise agree with that version of events

[leetic]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

[pyxxy]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

[RondoDimBuckle]

obligatory page 69 nice

[Ranmilia]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

wat

If there is another phantom vote on you today Jack will go super saiyan and cross time and space to smite the unbelievers in [redacted] town in the other thread. (not really.) (maybe.)

[RondoDimBuckle]

I am legit hype that I might hit 8888 posts this cycle. If I do I am going to stop posting and quit syndicate

Spoiler: show

This is mostly a joke

[Ranmilia]

s/flail/goes manic but otherwise agree with that version of events

yeah that was maybe harsh sorry

[leetic]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty

[pyxxy]

s/flail/goes manic but otherwise agree with that version of events

yeah that was maybe harsh sorry

no no, as when we talked like last day or w/e, you're not being too harsh, it's your perspective

[pyxxy]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty

stats is poison

[pyxxy]

s/flail/goes manic but otherwise agree with that version of events

yeah that was maybe harsh sorry

no no, as when we talked like last day or w/e, you're not being too harsh, it's your perspective

for legal reasons this post is NAI

[Ranmilia]

I am legit hype that I might hit 8888 posts this cycle. If I do I am going to stop posting and quit syndicate

Spoiler: show

This is mostly a joke

Can I get you to at least look over the TSP ISO and give thoughts?

[RondoDimBuckle]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

wat

If there is another phantom vote on you today Jack will go super saiyan and cross time and space to smite the unbelievers in [redacted] town in the other thread. (not really.) (maybe.)

Jack where?

Spoiler: show

jack.PNG (46.06 KiB) Viewed 997 times

[leetic]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

wat

If there is another phantom vote on you today Jack will go super saiyan and cross time and space to smite the unbelievers in [redacted] town in the other thread. (not really.) (maybe.)

Jack where?

Spoiler: show

jack.PNG

BTSC

[pyxxy]

WindwardAway has been bonked on to the Lumon hospital. She was:

Spoiler: show

You’re a severed employee working at Lumon Industries (town).

Twice during the game during any separate Night phases, you may select a player. That player's role will not function that night.

Evening Three is underway. You have 48 hours to vote someone out.

Spoiler: show

@Bereft
@Gira
@leetic
@Made
@☆Princess Abigail☆
@pyxxy
@Ranmilia
@RondoDimBuckle
@tedxtr

not surprised in the slightest. About to head into a Dark Heresy Ascension game that I DM and need to prep for it. Can someone recap SOD for me?

Me leetic gira all go on pyxxy. Pyxxy flails, says maybe it's me, then no longer thinks it's me. The poll breaks but this seems to have been a site break and not a game mechanic. I have the power of god, anime and JackofHearts2005 on my side and we now know a fair bit about the other thread, see above for that.

wat

If there is another phantom vote on you today Jack will go super saiyan and cross time and space to smite the unbelievers in [redacted] town in the other thread. (not really.) (maybe.)

Jack where?

Spoiler: show

jack.PNG

*slowly turns and points at Ranmilia's head*

[RondoDimBuckle]

I am legit hype that I might hit 8888 posts this cycle. If I do I am going to stop posting and quit syndicate

Spoiler: show

This is mostly a joke

Can I get you to at least look over the TSP ISO and give thoughts?

negative. I am really supposed to be gone already but I didnt expect thread to be hopping.

[Ranmilia]

s/flail/goes manic but otherwise agree with that version of events

yeah that was maybe harsh sorry

no no, as when we talked like last day or w/e, you're not being too harsh, it's your perspective

for legal reasons this post is NAI

even if you do turn out to be a wolf it is really a pleasure playing with you and I super respect you keeping it clean <3

[pyxxy]

s/flail/goes manic but otherwise agree with that version of events

yeah that was maybe harsh sorry

no no, as when we talked like last day or w/e, you're not being too harsh, it's your perspective

for legal reasons this post is NAI

even if you do turn out to be a wolf it is really a pleasure playing with you and I super respect you keeping it clean <3

uhoh

people only compliment me when I rand scum :x

[RondoDimBuckle]

Tell me something only Jack would say

[pyxxy]

arrr, matey

[Ranmilia]

Tell me something only Jack would say

Unfortunately I think I am specifically forbidden from doing this. He will show up and make his 5 posts in due time though.

Spoiler: show

or he's illario's partner and got vigged or illario was actually town or something wild is going on but i mean i'm running with the baseline assumption that he is town and truthful here

[RondoDimBuckle]

Tell me something only Jack would say

Unfortunately I think I am specifically forbidden from doing this. He will show up and make his 5 posts in due time though.

Spoiler: show

or he's illario's partner and got vigged or illario was actually town or something wild is going on but i mean i'm running with the baseline assumption that he is town and truthful here

Ah... well that is easily dis/provable. peace

[leetic]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty

stats is poison

I put the problem in a LLM, and this is what it gave me:

"This is a combinatorics problem. We need to find the probability that no wolves are paired with each other when each person from one thread is paired randomly with someone from the other thread.

Let's break down the problem:

1. There are 13 players in each thread, so there are 13! ways to pair them. 2. There are 3 wolves in each thread, so there are 3! ways to pair the wolves. 3. The remaining 10 players in each thread can be paired in 10! ways.

The total number of ways to pair the players is 13!, and the number of ways to pair the players such that no wolves are paired with each other is (3! * 10!).

The probability that no wolves are paired with each other is therefore (3! * 10!) / 13!.

Let's calculate this:

1. 13! = 6,227,020,800 2. 3! = 6 3. 10! = 3,628,800

So, the probability is (6 * 3,628,800) / 6,227,020,800 = 0.00349206349.

Therefore, the probability that no wolves are paired with each other is approximately 0.0035.

Let's return this in an html-like answer tag:

0.0035"

Take that as you will

[tedxtr]

leetic, i’m p sure i was the one that was rb’d again, and not you

[tedxtr]

anyway

i was a 2x watcher that can’t detect kills

ama

[leetic]

leetic, i’m p sure i was the one that was rb’d again, and not you

What result did you get?

[Ranmilia]

Ramza... what did you get?

[tedxtr]

Ramza... what did you get?

i said i was rb’d twice

and in the 1% wwa didn’t block me again, nobody visited wwa

[tedxtr]

the only reason im not mad is cuz if wwa hadn’t blocked me, leetic would’ve thought he had a red check on me today

it could be worse!

[leetic]

There's probably a wolf blocker and a town blocker. But I don't know why WW would target ted again, maybe they were just pissed off at me? That said, ted being roleblocked again is perhaps a bit convenient

[tedxtr]

Wait no im stupid

i wasn’t blocked

[tedxtr]

There's probably a wolf blocker and a town blocker. But I don't know why WW would target ted again, maybe they were just pissed off at me? That said, ted being roleblocked again is perhaps a bit convenient

I wasn’t, i can’t read

[leetic]

the only reason im not mad is cuz if wwa hadn’t blocked me, leetic would’ve thought he had a red check on me today

it could be worse!

If I wasn't roleblocked, I feel I would have gotten the same wording as I did with Bereft. Yet I didn't.

[leetic]

Wait no im stupid

i wasn’t blocked

What happened then?

[tedxtr]

ye you were

[leetic]

ye you were

So did you get results or what?

[tedxtr]

Wait no im stupid

i wasn’t blocked

What happened then?

nobody visited..

[leetic]

Wait no im stupid

i wasn’t blocked

What happened then?

nobody visited..

Who did you target N1?

[tedxtr]

mac

[leetic]

"Watcher but you can't track kills" seems a bit useless for town, at best you're going to catch a wolf blocker. Granted, Watcher is pretty overpowered without that restriction, but it seems wolves would have more use for this role as they could try to catch Doctors/etc. Why did you choose to target the likely NK targets knowing that you couldn't detect kills?

[tedxtr]

"Watcher but you can't track kills" seems a bit useless for town, at best you're going to catch a wolf blocker. Granted, Watcher is pretty overpowered without that restriction, but it seems wolves would have more use for this role as they could try to catch Doctors/etc. Why did you choose to target the likely NK targets knowing that you couldn't detect kills?

for the reason you seem to think wolves would do it

it’s a pretty rng role, i could either mash buttons and hope for aroleblocker or role cop or i could clear villas

i thought the same thing as you w/r/t usefulness and i just winged it like this, didn’t have a grand strat cuz there really isn’t one

[Ranmilia]

it would have been so much easier if there was one thread

Ted can you explain what you meant by this post again? I was chalking it up to potentially part of whatever your PR was but...

[tedxtr]

it would have been so much easier if there was one thread

Ted can you explain what you meant by this post again? I was chalking it up to potentially part of whatever your PR was but...

it was already explained

i just meant that it would’ve been easier for wolfhunting cuz i come from mashes

nothing role related

[tedxtr]

and for the mech post i made, given the rng aspect i considered they would maybe doc dodge and instead check if the person they’re dodging from is a PR

my role wasn’t meant to be the primary one to catch wolves, so playing for that is silly, the odds are low i’d catch one

[Ranmilia]

Seems like you'd have a pretty high chance of catching TSP's role specifically? Not only would you see it, you'd see that your target was swapped?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Anyway, no one seems to have left the game. Does anyone now have a chat with the person who was nightkilled in the other thread? Or perhaps they blocked the nightkill over there?

It would've told us if a NK happened no? It did last time anyways.

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Y'know, the whole point of a soft is for it to not be outed unless the person softing wants to do so. Outing it is anti-town.

If that was a soft it was a very fucking hard soft

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Yee. o7 Wind

chicken scratch TSP ISO thoughts overnight.

Spoiler: show

TSP ISO thoughts
#285 "wolves in nutella brad monroe scotty" in other thread
early back and forths with leetic, abigail
#483 i'm bad at the game
randomly townreads pyxxy when gira/pyxxy call him scummy
asks me about pyxxy
shades me shading dizzy
#671 says i should not have a serious wolfread on dizzy
claims not to realize abigail asked me the question...
#728 calls gira most likely wolf when i press him
"we're about to chop rondo, right"
#1166 votes wind, "convinced myself against the leetic vote" what leetic vote???
#1180: "Here’s the situation: not all is right. We’re about to limp into the stupidest looking bereft chop I’ve ever seen. It’s probably rand and there are somewhat good reasons not to do that. So then, who’s in this game who should know better? I promise I didn’t just immediately jump to the two voters on Bereft for the record, I think that looks slightly towny. Leetic seems to have lost a bit of the edge, can’t tell why. WWA is posting a lot but has no thread control nor have they attempted to wrest it. I won’t vote for Mac or dizzy day 1. Ted seems alright. Mac’s defending Gira. I won’t vote Rondo D1 for opposite reasons. Ran and Robyn are self resolving."
then "can't bring himself to think leetic is a wolf"
"if we are going to roll the dice beter to do it on abigail imo"
calls abi/pyxxy the standard d1s that don't have votes
opposes consolidating on bereft
keeps naming leetic/abigail/gira in interactions
responds to dizzy disavowing setting up a ran/dizzy dichotomy
votes robyn claims "going with the flow", says ted not a good choice today.
-- d2
claims he would have left his vote off wagon, prob on abigail or "maybe" dizzy
claims dizzy looks better, abby looks bad
#2124 doubles down on abi attack
has the bad push on me
"Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?" lol
then throws out Gira/Ran/x team
"Five flips are dizzy rondo bereft ran and Abigail narrowly over Ted before Leetic asks"
pyxxy asks if i have wolf equity with dizzy, tsp says no
then kinda shuts down
"Actually like ok yeah Rondo / Abby / Bereft / Dizzy is probably a two wolf group"
and then all seems noncommittal towards eod and ghosts the actual eod

Conclusions: prob exactly 1 in bereft/dizzymade and the other in pyxxy/leetic, pretty heavily leaning pyxxy since not making eod is pretty congruous with no one trying to save TSP.
Rondo, Gira town, Abi town unless world's best theatre.

[VOTE: Pyxxy] aubergine

[VOTE: Ranmilia] aubergine

will happily thunderdome you today

Well that's just silly

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

TonyStarkPrime: Bereft, RondoDimBuckle, Gira, WindwardAway, leetic, Ranmilia

I... actually think this is pure holy fuck