Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:41 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:39 pmDoubtful his wagon is pure.
Back up this statement.
Well what I mean is that if it is pure then he's probably mafia and if he is mafia then it can be. That's just how wagons work most of the time.
We have 3, 3 vote ties. If Scotty is town, his wagon has mafia on it to a probabilistic degree. If it didn't have mafia on it, mafia voted sub-optimally because Scotty was one place they could have voted to avoid voting the green check without having to stack Serhal.
I know that of the Rondo voters at least 1 is town (ya boi).
The Serhal wagon was on a townie. So mafia are probably on that one also.
Rondo had claimed and was green checked, I'd say that the mafia vote pattern is most likely that the mafia got off Rondo onto Scotty/Serhal because they felt compelled not to be voting someone for whom it would be outing to do so after it was apparent they'd read the information.
Tl/Dr check who moved from Rondo to Serhal or (if town) Scotty. There will be mafia in them.
We know the wagons were t/t/?. With the ? being someone who was silenced. We know the ? wagon was at least 66% pure. So ... we have a high percentage difference check between Robyn and Scotty.
If Scotty is mafia, DM is virtually outed as a partner and the last is almost always Pyxxy.
If Scotty is town it'll mean Robyn is probably mafia and the mafia is the hellworld where they're just all pocketing me.