Wolfwalkers Deireadh (ENDGAME)

[Porscha]

um
i'm gonna try to like. read at least some of the game before end of day tomorrow but i'm still not feeling well so no guarantees

is there someone who is like lock town in case I need to sheep vote tomorrow?

[Porscha]

also hello delta *waves* welcome to the sub club with me

[DrWilgy]

@robyn re Baker, I did these reviews towards the end of EoD to reflect on my sr. These still mostly apply.

Baker d1

i think i am gonna sheep chibi fami on d1

Arbitrary

When is the EoD anyway

22 minutes

fami senpai is still drinking probably.

i am a sucker for early one-tailed directions and saving my energy for later

you mentioned i am less likely to be a wolf & more likely to be a villager

ig i can sheep you instead

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

party at my place tonight if I'm indeed obvious villager!

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

please don't die martin

these wolves will rip me apart!!!

Arbitrary and overly buddy buddy

Baker's d1 was as poor as I remember. They were in and out for most of the day and not one conclusion or rhyme to their reason was provided.

Martin Baker not W/W

Oddly enough, Martin is becoming a much firmer town read as the people I see are unlikely partners to them.

Baker D2

Scotty OMGUS hard

Second conclusions are around me and Abi

Baker > Abigail > DM is my preferred vote as it stands.

Will vote out of line with Scotty though. [VOTE: DM] aubergine

I will townlean Wilgy for this post. I think we are all thinking Abi looks sus from this but honestly Scotty has been making pushes on a very false narrative that can harm town more. Wilgy voting DM here is a towny reaction to that.

Explain why ?

I think there was an observable difference in your D1 activity compared to what I know of your games in the past

+

Falcon was voting you and the Falcon wagon was formed at EoD which was a CW to yours, people decided to vote on it or vote on slots that weren't yours. You had the highest votes before with Falcon/Scotty. It is possible someone avoided voting you for whatever reason that can't be cleared alignment wise atp

And I don't know what to make of this. Like, it's correct that Abi was at 2 and didn't go to 3, LC did first, but it's inherently incorrect thinking that Falcon was Abi's CW. LC was. LC absolved into Falcon. I guess this is in line with other statements of Abi has neg vote momentum and that's wolfy, but hard to say why that's wolfy? I guess I can see town making that observation in spite of it being wrong? Like a townie gut feeling built on incorrect data? Does a wolf use incorrect data like this as a mistake to make a non ai generalization around a slot?

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine poke poke

i know you just said youre busy and that you can play tomorrow but...until then!!

this is an ok prod tbh given the gamestate

this post kinda reeks.


Eh, I'm kinda done with this. Keep getting distracted by the kids.

Baker's ISO is still bad but there's like afew very small bits of interaction that I can see from both angles. I think the thing I found most concerning that I hadn't noticed previously is the tendency to play kinda buddy buddy with afee players.

I get the time constraints make things hard and lack of familiarity makes things hard, but that didn't prevent a strong conclusion being pulled on Scotty during the omgus and that's kinda a big hangup for me.

Regarding the initial read: it was observable early that Baker had too much fluff for how often they'd poke into the thread. They were also present enough to observe yours and Martin's behavior, but couldn't come to any self made conclusions.

When this was called out, Baker was able to HARD omgus and provide a VERY nuanced read of Scotty and that effort hasn't been seen anywhere else.

If that level of nuance can be achieved for an omgus, where is it elsewhere in hunting? The conclusion is that they aren't hunting.

Final bit but minor was their entry into D2 was kinda poot. You can't just enter thread and be like "well I was ready to say it was Wilgy/Abit for reasons I won't detail but gee would you look at the Scotty!"

I've inquired about all this afew times now, but no direct response from Baker's been had, not have I seen the energy put into the game to rectify any of this.

Even in my review, I pointed out something that could be from town Baker, and I'd like to give it more credit re their thoughts on Abi, BUT Martin has basically already said the same thing about the slot. Martin, who Baker has already invested energy into pocketing.

[DrWilgy]

um
i'm gonna try to like. read at least some of the game before end of day tomorrow but i'm still not feeling well so no guarantees

is there someone who is like lock town in case I need to sheep vote tomorrow?

Consensus is that MR has their head on straight. I'd start there.

[DrWilgy]

Ugh. I had a fully detailed read list written out to Stick and my phone are it on accidental refresh. Bare bones is below.

Scotty: townie. We seem to have similar thoughts re the game and players present.

Porscha: null. Within scope of afk wolf theory. Seemed to have vote resistance d1 as observed by Martin and Baker.

Robyn: null. Catch up process seems genuine. Not within scope if afk wolf theory.

LC: wolfy. D1 should be reviewed. D2 was a strict drip in momentum with a very off putting EoD regarding treatment of the DM slot. Refuting meta arguments towards DM in spite of being in F5 of timelines is weird.

MR: townie. Posts seem to be from town mindset whenever I see them.

Stick: wolfy. Hedgey behavior appears to be in line with a player keeping their options open. Far too few conclusions from this slot with so many posts.

Delta: null. Center of afk wolf theory.

Baker: wolfy. See above.

Martin: townie. Their thinking isn't inherently straightforward to me, but it at least seems to be townie. Has good equity against those I find wolfy.

[DrWilgy]

It’s just strange behavior from wigly, i’m used to someone that would not be ultra manipulative or aggressive, he’d talk it out and try to find DM’s alignment and instead he went and decided to suspect her from the first sign that DM suspected wigly. They just wolfed together so wigly should have a rand< read on her and DM should have a rand< read on DM and her general aesthetic and general weakness when it comes to writing and expressing themself. Which is all to say that nobody is illogical and i think that dm correctly self voted after the blatant manipulation and aggression that wigly showed. If i had to bet dm would leave a legacy that says kill wigly

ohh nice meta. ive only played with w!wilgy so when i saw different i equated it to town

maybe im wrong

This is kinda the exact "keeping my options open" type stuff I keep feeling from your slot.

To me this reads as "oh sweet, perhaps I'll get to vote this slot maybe now." Without providing anything else to Robyn's arguments.

[DrWilgy]

Stick: What if there are 0 wolves between dm/baker, then who are the wolves? [P#495]

oh did i say there had to be one between them? my bad, i dont think theyre a difference check

you know what IS a difference check, though?


wilgy and LC


i will be surprised if this is two villagers, and im positive they arent w/w

Where does this dichotomy come from? Feels plucked out of a hat.

[DrWilgy]

@MartinGG99 @Long Con @DrWilgy @Scotty


lets vote for actual scumreads, garebare can be flashwagoned eod. dont waste the day imo.

I’m not looking to waste the day, and agree

I had a fitful sleep (don’t worry, it wasn’t mostly Mafia related, mostly coughing up Christmas) but I’m currently of the mind that the lack of NKs are one of two things:
-we actually do have that canoneer that I think Robyn suggested.
-only one mafia is assigned the kill of the team a la how SVS’ role functioned in Ted Lasso.

I can totally see the latter as this case, as it would explain why things are so quiet. Garebear.

And by association, I feel like garebear’s partner would be LOSING. THEIR. MIND. Wouldn’t surprise me if they came out swinging for Garebear this phase because he’s an actual liability for progressing the game state. OR has absolutely no wim the past day (LC/robyn/abbi). Maybe even Stick? But less so

Only one scum being able to kill was such a weird mech fmpov. I would've argued that this would be just not be a thing if it wasn't for it.

I'd still argue that if the killing W is afk, making a teammate go insane with the inability to submit for them would just feel bad for that player and really makes me think that's not the case.

If it's afk wolf theory, I do think it's the Porscha/Delta team.

[DrWilgy]

I've caught up.

Someone let me know if we are voting Stick/LC or Delta.

Tyvm.

Gn.

[MartinGG99]

why the fuck did the font change halfway through, i did nothing to it

Apparently having [ then "i" immediately after that and then putting a ] somewhere later makes the system thing you're italicizing.

Also anything between the i and ] get annihilated from existence. Probably some sort of minor bug.

@MartinGG99 @Long Con @DrWilgy @Scotty


lets vote for actual scumreads, garebare can be flashwagoned eod. dont waste the day imo.

I mean, I've already made my suspicions of LC clear before even landing on Care Bare.

What's exactly being wasted? My imagined potential solving, in a situation where there's been no NKs and very limited mechanical information and a bunch of people I find town? The time and energy I could put into this game, when I've done that already in the past two day phases? The DM flip didn't really advance anything either. I figured they were town and they were...town. You self-pressed (I find self-preservation to be NAI), Scotty is obvious town by this point, DM is very scummy for voting off Darling Monroe (I half-jest), and Long Con is kinda just already on my suspicions list.

Frankly, there's very little to advance if anything right now. At most you'd find a super-fancy and honestly performative (because I do not feel like putting much more into the game right now) reorganization of a reads list or something like that. Fmpov we're just dealing with a situation that we were dealt with, and I largely just don't care if either care bear (now Delta) or Long Con dies first. Might be suboptimal if Delta is a green flip, but the same applies to if I voted off Long Con and they were green and Delta was still alive and the lack-of-NKs question was still unanswered.

Even if we assume N3 actions (if any) could help us discern Delta's alignment, which would suggest it being more optimal to chop Long Con first, the fact that such importance exists (through the multiple votes placed on Delta and consensus thread attention to lower-activity/impact slots) likely makes the whole thing WIFOM-prone. Just thinking about it gives me vibes of when JJJ faked a red on D3 in a game themed around Don't Starve, leading to a smooth d4 victory because town failed to consolidate (if memory serves correctly), though that one certainly wasn't missing its night kills.

Actually

If mafia is truly trying to purposefully play on a self-imposed hard mode, stick is definitely doing everything in their power to come out of this with accolades befitting a mafia boss. It’s just a funny concept to me

atp i don't wanna speculate on what happened without info. but if we are in a world where mafia holstering for a prestige win, I would expect such effort from Martin too. I TR them though so its probably less likely.

Would you really not try such a concept though? What does this game mean to you @Scotty

I appreciate the thought, but I'd be more likely to do it over wanting to play a WIFOM-heavy game (or to spite someone, idk) than to actually do it for achievement purposes.

It’s just strange behavior from wigly, i’m used to someone that would not be ultra manipulative or aggressive, he’d talk it out and try to find DM’s alignment and instead he went and decided to suspect her from the first sign that DM suspected wigly. They just wolfed together so wigly should have a rand< read on her and DM should have a rand< read on DM and her general aesthetic and general weakness when it comes to writing and expressing themself. Which is all to say that nobody is illogical and i think that dm correctly self voted after the blatant manipulation and aggression that wigly showed. If i had to bet dm would leave a legacy that says kill wigly

ohh nice meta. ive only played with w!wilgy so when i saw different i equated it to town

maybe im wrong

This is kinda the exact "keeping my options open" type stuff I keep feeling from your slot.

To me this reads as "oh sweet, perhaps I'll get to vote this slot maybe now." Without providing anything else to Robyn's arguments.

Wilgy knows whats up

though Stick told me they're constantly evaluating which could make that appearance so idk what to make of it than to put them higher (as in, later) PoE

[MartinGG99]

Just thinking about it gives me vibes of when JJJ faked a red on D3 in a game themed around Don't Starve, leading to a smooth d4 victory because town failed to consolidate (if memory serves correctly), though that one certainly wasn't missing its night kills.

Come to think of it

If the mafia are truly inhibited in their NKs somehow

then vote-affecting abilities might not be unreasonable for the wolves

especially considering that for some reason a town role had tie-deciding capability and could pre-emptively decide ties or whatever

[MartinGG99]

You have the ability to settle tied votes. There are a few ways you can do this: sending a name at phase end, making a list of players from most preferred to least preferred, just letting me assume that if you're voting someone in the tie that would be your choice, etc. If you die, ties will result in no elimination.

underlined and bolded what I felt was of most interest

[MartinGG99]

more I think about it feels like a half-baked theory that's just as equally likely to not be true

given the 1x protection

but whatever

[Delta]

Question for whoever while I catch up for a bit;

I die town, so what's causing the lack of kills?

Because I dont get the whole "oh afk wolf no kill" because it seems unlikely the factional would be assigned to one role specifically anyway

And it doesnt really feel like it holds up when the guy before me was here at some point. Not to mention that if you think my guy is afk with the sole ability to NK, why then hand it back to wolves by killing him over hunting outside of that slot?

I dunno. Would like to hear some theories ab the NK stuff there because it'll need to happen sooner or later and on a skim it feels like that's been wilfully ignored :P

[Stick]

wtf is delta doing here

[Delta]

wtf is delta doing here

:3

Good morning Stick o/

[Stick]

i dont buy the whole afk team theory btw, and i like your slot for having naked voted LC d1

[Delta]

i dont buy the whole afk team theory btw, and i like your slot for having naked voted LC d1

Go pocket someone else I'm reading

[Stick]

Porscha's the other Wolf, of course. Could be known as having AFK Syndrome, and therefore becomes a suspect after two missed (?) kills. I hate to be that guy who didn't do "read posts and solve" in order to give an answer, but I'm not going to pretend I don't think it.

this makes very little sense cuz abbi was active enough d1/first half of2 to have submitted a kill n1

[Master Radishes]

um
i'm gonna try to like. read at least some of the game before end of day tomorrow but i'm still not feeling well so no guarantees

is there someone who is like lock town in case I need to sheep vote tomorrow?

Consensus is that MR has their head on straight. I'd start there.

This is not a position I am used to being in. It's strange and I don't like it.

[Delta]

@Long Con

Why have a lot of your posts followed a line of 'sorry for being town ): I get this makes me look bad ): wish I was wolf guys ):'?

Feels like such an odd route to take even if you're slanking? Whats up?

[Stick]

i dont buy the whole afk team theory btw, and i like your slot for having naked voted LC d1

Go pocket someone else I'm reading

we killed the strongest town pr d1 hope youre proud

[robyn]

[Delta]

i dont buy the whole afk team theory btw, and i like your slot for having naked voted LC d1

Go pocket someone else I'm reading

we killed the strongest town pr d1 hope youre proud

A JOAT no less

[DrWilgy]

i dont buy the whole afk team theory btw, and i like your slot for having naked voted LC d1

Go pocket someone else I'm reading

we killed the strongest town pr d1 hope youre proud

A JOAT no less

*Champs G1 flashbacks*

[Master Radishes]

because sometimes the vibe seems alright but I can't think of a good reason to not scumread him either.

i'd like elaboration for this because i literally don't see how to reconcile this with my pov of baker. i just don't read him as wolfy at all and he comes off as very genuine

I mean same from me to you - what's so genuine about him? What posts scream 'town' to you? I don't see that at all.

[Delta]

i dont buy the whole afk team theory btw, and i like your slot for having naked voted LC d1

Go pocket someone else I'm reading

we killed the strongest town pr d1 hope youre proud

A JOAT no less

*Champs G1 flashbacks*

I shouldve flashwagoned my other wolf reads I'm afraid ):

[Stick]

Theres 4 of you trying to kill my slot and my personal job is to make sure that either doesnt happen or it looks horrible for you all afterwards

hmmm

[Delta]

@Stick go respond to people I need a read >:)

Though wanna hear where your head is at rn

[robyn]

because sometimes the vibe seems alright but I can't think of a good reason to not scumread him either.

i'd like elaboration for this because i literally don't see how to reconcile this with my pov of baker. i just don't read him as wolfy at all and he comes off as very genuine

I mean same from me to you - what's so genuine about him? What posts scream 'town' to you? I don't see that at all.

(i just started writing the post)

[Delta]

Theres 4 of you trying to kill my slot and my personal job is to make sure that either doesnt happen or it looks horrible for you all afterwards

hmmm

Dont hmmm me, reads, go

[DrWilgy]

The kids won't let me sleep tonight send help

[Master Radishes]

I think this is the first time I've played with Stick and Delta despite having to suffer them in spec chat for so many months.

[Master Radishes]

The kids won't let me sleep tonight send help

Read out Robyn's wallpost to them

[Stick]

Theres 4 of you trying to kill my slot and my personal job is to make sure that either doesnt happen or it looks horrible for you all afterwards

hmmm

Dont hmmm me, reads, go

radishes scotty martin town, wilgy less sure on but not with LC. i also thought abbi sounded fine (now porscha)

you were fine before but the quoted bit looks fake

everyone else wolf

[Stick]

I think this is the first time I've played with Stick and Delta despite having to suffer them in spec chat for so many months.

LOL

[Delta]

I think this is the first time I've played with Stick and Delta despite having to suffer them in spec chat for so many months.

'Suffer'

But think if all the good times we had!

;0;

What are your current thoughts on people?

[Master Radishes]

I chose the word I chose.

[Delta]

Theres 4 of you trying to kill my slot and my personal job is to make sure that either doesnt happen or it looks horrible for you all afterwards

hmmm

Dont hmmm me, reads, go

radishes scotty martin town, wilgy less sure on but not with LC. i also thought abbi sounded fine (now porscha)

you were fine before but the quoted bit looks fake

everyone else wolf

'Fine before' what before my slot wasnt here ?_?

Agreed with the town part on catchup, Wilgy/LC I can see being a diff check, what I've seen of Abi's posts so far feel eh so ? to that but I'll see how that goes once I'm done

Do we have any idea on ratio or is it just like. Hope there's not four wolves or something like that

[Delta]

I chose the word I chose.

:c

[Stick]

That being the case, this is the cycle where we really need to attempt to quantify the value of removing unknown elements. If I follow PoE I'd be in the realm of Stick/LC/Baker as scummy where Robyn/Delta/Porscha are our null slots. Am I confident enough to hit a wolf in the scummy side of PoE? I'd give it like a 60/40 on stick and a 50/50 on the other two. The afk wolf theory at least puts Porscha and Delta up to 55/45 if we shoot in the realm of null. Robyn is still 50/50 as the afk wolf talk doesn't apply to them.

you know we share a lot of the same poe, you should stop trying to kill me :)

[DrWilgy]

The kids won't let me sleep tonight send help

Read out Robyn's wallpost to them

Lmao

[Master Radishes]

That being the case, this is the cycle where we really need to attempt to quantify the value of removing unknown elements. If I follow PoE I'd be in the realm of Stick/LC/Baker as scummy where Robyn/Delta/Porscha are our null slots. Am I confident enough to hit a wolf in the scummy side of PoE? I'd give it like a 60/40 on stick and a 50/50 on the other two. The afk wolf theory at least puts Porscha and Delta up to 55/45 if we shoot in the realm of null. Robyn is still 50/50 as the afk wolf talk doesn't apply to them.

you know we share a lot of the same poe, you should stop trying to kill me

Clearly he's a wolf pocketing you.

[Stick]

Theres 4 of you trying to kill my slot and my personal job is to make sure that either doesnt happen or it looks horrible for you all afterwards

hmmm

Dont hmmm me, reads, go

radishes scotty martin town, wilgy less sure on but not with LC. i also thought abbi sounded fine (now porscha)

you were fine before but the quoted bit looks fake

everyone else wolf

'Fine before' what before my slot wasnt here ?_?

Agreed with the town part on catchup, Wilgy/LC I can see being a diff check, what I've seen of Abi's posts so far feel eh so ? to that but I'll see how that goes once I'm done

Do we have any idea on ratio or is it just like. Hope there's not four wolves or something like that

yea they silently voted LC on the poll d1 and dipped, it was kinda based

[Delta]

[VOTE: Long con] aubergine

I say 'when I finish my catchup' as if I have time ;0;

Would like to start here, I'm not fond of the approach they've taken to my slot and the repeated feel of 'sorry for not being a wolf guys ):' is pretty odd & I'm not fond of it

[Delta]

Theres 4 of you trying to kill my slot and my personal job is to make sure that either doesnt happen or it looks horrible for you all afterwards

hmmm

Dont hmmm me, reads, go

radishes scotty martin town, wilgy less sure on but not with LC. i also thought abbi sounded fine (now porscha)

you were fine before but the quoted bit looks fake

everyone else wolf

'Fine before' what before my slot wasnt here ?_?

Agreed with the town part on catchup, Wilgy/LC I can see being a diff check, what I've seen of Abi's posts so far feel eh so ? to that but I'll see how that goes once I'm done

Do we have any idea on ratio or is it just like. Hope there's not four wolves or something like that

yea they silently voted LC on the poll d1 and dipped, it was kinda based

Time to finish what they started >:)

[Stick]

@Delta you despise creating difference check dichotomies - whyre you just agreeing with me on that when i havent even explained it yet

[Master Radishes]

@Delta you despise creating difference check dichotomies - whyre you just agreeing with me on that when i havent even explained it yet

Because delta is a wolf.

Or because you are.

One of the two.

[Stick]

@Delta you despise creating difference check dichotomies - whyre you just agreeing with me on that when i havent even explained it yet

Because delta is a wolf.

Or because you are.

One of the two.

are you calling us...a difference check???

[Master Radishes]

@Delta you despise creating difference check dichotomies - whyre you just agreeing with me on that when i havent even explained it yet

Because delta is a wolf.

Or because you are.

One of the two.

are you calling us...a difference check???

I was going to!

Then I realised 'we're both under fire, we better distance' is a plausible and likely convo in wolfchat after Delta subbed in and you had someone fun to play with.

So now there's a third option.