Fallout New Vegas: A Post-Nuclear Mafia Game [LEGION CONQUEST]

[TonyStarkPrime]

he's not an outed wolf because he's been wolfy and there's circumstantial mech stuff, he's an outed wolf because either someone told him to shut up or he came to that conclusion himself

Which, for the record, does sorta limit who's on the wolf team but I don't know enough people in this game that I'm not really willing to make any determinations based on it

[Dunnstral]

Alright so I have a tell I like to use where a player does not understand why somebody is being suspected and ends up using different reasoning to try to explain why they are suspected. To me it feels that both MacDougall and TonyStarkPrime have no idea why falcon is suspected and so have defaulted to pointing out their activity, and while technically true, falcon was being voted with reasoning by me this day phase before they were expected to post - activity was not a factor in that read.

So let's go over why Falcon is being suspected and voted today:

First, they were seen visiting Seanzie on night 2. 4 town power roles are dead, and 1 other player (Manny) is claiming a town power role. There is a significant chance that Falcon is an anti-town role due to the number of town power roles we have already seen, and the amount of anti-town power roles that would be remaining. This is the big reason today.

Second, and this ties in with the above a bit, Falcon cannot have the role civilian, of which a significant number of remaining town players will have that role. This also makes Falcon more likely to be anti-town.

Third, as Chelsea pointed out the Seanzie kill was a bit weird. I was personally townreading them but I know a number of people were not, and they were almost eliminated on day 1. Falcon being a mafia role cop makes sense, as Seanzie flipped a power role.

Fourth, their posting today has been really lackluster, and seems like a caught mafia member avoiding giving anything away by arguing with other players.

------

Now as per my theory the mafia may find it hard to grasp why their partner is being suspected. Macdougall and TonyStarkPrime have only really engaged with point #4.

In post 1767 viewtopic.php?p=1110604#p1110604 MacDougall says that Falcon is "rand" so not a scumread, at this point the first point above has been discussed quite a bit, but two, three, and four haven't yet. As the day progresses they only engage with point four - Falcon is mafia because they are low posting this day phase and antispew.

In post 2047 viewtopic.php?p=1111030#p1111030 TonyStarkPrime says that it is not a courageous stance for me to be scumreading Falcon. I found this odd as I was the one to bring up points 1 and 2 above. They then go on to only engage with point #4: Falcon is mafia because they are low posting this phase and previous phases (though this call-out to previous phases only happens once the wagon is established on them today).

you didn't ask me why falcon was suspected, you asked me why falcon was outed wolf

What is the difference? Would it have changed your answer?

yeah it's a very different question

I believe the end result is the same. You thought Falcon was an outed wolf for low posting and didn't have much or anything to say about the other points. You demonstrated this through the whole day, not just in response to my questioning.

[Dunnstral]

he's not an outed wolf because he's been wolfy and there's circumstantial mech stuff, he's an outed wolf because either someone told him to shut up or he came to that conclusion himself

Which, for the record, does sorta limit who's on the wolf team but I don't know enough people in this game that I'm not really willing to make any determinations based on it

OK. I don't believe you said this yesterday, though. You talked about this low posting being their modus operandi as mafia, or something to that effect.

[TonyStarkPrime]

No I didn't

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok bear in mind that I've apparently either gotten a lot worse at reading falcon or (more likely) he's gotten a lot better but this is pretty textbook w!falcon. Very little real aggression, no bite in questions. That said I just got him wrong in BotB so I do think he's not really in line with that meta.

Sorta irrelevant but between the mech stuff and the ISO I'd lean that he's a wolf over 3P here, especially since I think he'd at least try to play a 3P as town

here is a post where I demonstrate knowledge of both the mech stuff and the ISO, both of which I looked into somewhat extensively (ok that's a lie I didn't really look into the mech stuff that extensively but I at least did my due diligence)

[Dunnstral]

falcon vanishing is unfortunately wolf mo but I'll check his ISO to get a feel anyways

This is the post I was thinking of. If you meant what you just explained, it wasn't really made clear here.

ok bear in mind that I've apparently either gotten a lot worse at reading falcon or (more likely) he's gotten a lot better but this is pretty textbook w!falcon. Very little real aggression, no bite in questions. That said I just got him wrong in BotB so I do think he's not really in line with that meta.

Sorta irrelevant but between the mech stuff and the ISO I'd lean that he's a wolf over 3P here, especially since I think he'd at least try to play a 3P as town

here is a post where I demonstrate knowledge of both the mech stuff and the ISO, both of which I looked into somewhat extensively (ok that's a lie I didn't really look into the mech stuff that extensively but I at least did my due diligence)

Well I didn't see this before, so perhaps this worth consideration.

[TonyStarkPrime]

also to be clear it wasn't because falcon was low-posting in previous phases it was because falcon had literally one post on the day he was to be betrayed

[TonyStarkPrime]

I feel like I missed my opportunity to reply to the mac / epi posts with a "dads stop fighting" thing but I do kinda feel that way. Just really don't understand where Epi's coming from though and honestly I think he should stop billboard posting and start making a genuine effort because if the situation is as dire as it looks it might be nice to have an actually fresh pair of eyes on the whole thing.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Le gasp Long Con was bad?

[TonyStarkPrime]

that better be sardonic

[Dunnstral]

OK that makes sense. I still have an issue with you because I don't think you had a big impact on the first two days, and your vote on day three could have easily been a bus vote IMO as it comes after suspicions have already formed. That and if you're not mafia I still think you are potentially 3p. Going to wait for other people to give opinions though.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sign in ate my self indulgent post about my ability to read Long Con. What’s sardonic mean?

[Jackofhearts2005]

No, I was totally serious. LC was my top townread not counting Manny, who is basically mech confirmed imo.

[TonyStarkPrime]

OK that makes sense. I still have an issue with you because I don't think you had a big impact on the first two days, and your vote on day three could have easily been a bus vote IMO as it comes after suspicions have already formed. That and if you're not mafia I still think you are potentially 3p. Going to wait for other people to give opinions though.

for the record I didn't vote for falcon and forgot this until after and then got upset because it makes my bar graph against lime coke look worse if I need to pull it out again but it's really hard to have bus votes on people you're not voting for.

and on that note not having a big impact on the first two days sounds like a huge win in my book, those days were abject disasters

[TonyStarkPrime]

No, I was totally serious. LC was my top townread not counting Manny, who is basically mech confirmed imo.

not to be the one who asks you to like do stuff but this would be a good time, particularly with a flip of your top town and your last-noted top wolf both as not-that

[TonyStarkPrime]

uh actually wait a second I might come up with mech reasons to take back that request but I'm kinda tired so instead I'm going to publicly out a completely untethered-from-reality jack=poisoner read and let other people do with it as they will

[Jackofhearts2005]

No, I was totally serious. LC was my top townread not counting Manny, who is basically mech confirmed imo.

not to be the one who asks you to like do stuff but this would be a good time, particularly with a flip of your top town and your last-noted top wolf both as not-that

My top wolf read just flipped wolf?

And my townread on LC was centered around D1, when he wasn’t a baddie since his flip says he chose to sk align.

Linki lol

[Jackofhearts2005]

Night 3 has ended.

Scotty was killed. He was:

Spoiler: show

You are the Omertas, civilian.

You have no special abilities.

To this point, the tribal families of New Vegas had managed to avoid the worst of the ongoing conflict. Hell, they'd profited from it. Beleaguered soldiers on both sides found solace and respite in the sweet arms of their casino daddies, ever eager to sacrifice their pay in honor of Lady Luck. But it seems luck had run out for the Omertas. Their Gomorrah hotel and casino stands vacant, ransacked and torched by the uncaring wastes.

Long Con was killed. He was:

Spoiler: show

Courier #6, and he had declared allegiance to Mr. House.

What are you supposed to do when the fate of an entire region is thrust upon your shoulders? The weight of destiny has never been indiscriminate, and the reasons you of all people found yourself in this position of power will forever elude you. But you accepted the responsibility and fought for what you believed was right, or for what best served your goals, or both. And maybe those goals can still be realized. But this game will end without your further influence.

Because the truth is...

The game was rigged from the start.

Day 4 is underway and will last 48 hours.

Scotty’s flip image kinda implies House DM instead of House MD.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine

Huh. There’s a joke about the silent majority in here somewhere.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Brad is town via being out of his range.
Chelsea is town because she was one of Abi's top town and Abi wouldn't have been killed in any mafia teams where their top town was mafia.
Dunnstral is just towny af. Along with Lanmisa.
Epi is probably not mafia due to lack of self pres and voting with Falcon d1 off wagon but that's not for sure.
Creature is following his mafia playstyle curve and not solving the way he generally does. He's not exhibiting Creature brand paranoia
Jack is now outed by his day 1 eod vote positioning.
TSP is a bit of an IC here.
Manny has been wolfsiding all game long egregiously.

Upper POE

Epi

Lower POE

Manny
Creature
Jack

Epi is probably Mr House.

What was my D1 vote positioning?

Didn’t Manny literally bag us a wolf yesterday?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Epi gimmick posting as a serial killer is also…a take that exists.

[TonyStarkPrime]

eh he just likes gimmick posting

[TonyStarkPrime]

my read on manny is that mac has to blame someone for bad things happening and bad things aren't the fault of you or creature so by process of elimination it's manny which actually isn't a good read but I need mac to be town for me to be happy

[TonyStarkPrime]

uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'd like to update the thread and say I have a new read for mr house who I won't be sharing with the thread (it's dunn)

[Jackofhearts2005]

Epi is now voting someone on a critical day 4 because "you're not fun to play with". Because I reacted to a 4 vote wagon aggressively.

Epi who is himself image posting.

Epi who is himself a curmudgeon.

If I was independent in this I'd be questioning Epi as to whether not enjoying someone's playstyle is a reasonable reason to be voting them on day 4.

Easier explanation is his agenda doesn't concern the town wincon tbh.

This is a desperate but valid point, the kinda point I make as a wolf when I feel like I’m caught for the wrong reasons.

Mac wolf, Epi sk or vice versa (and I know I just made fun of Mac’s 3P read on Epi) is a distinct possibility.

[Jackofhearts2005]

uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.

Means wolves thought killing LC (or possibly Scotty) was more important than killing essential IC Manny.

Who besides me was stanning Long Con?

Or maybe they role copped him N2 and thought they were in good position in spite of the Falcon yeet? That feels wrong.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m letting that exploded picture do a lot of heavy lifting but still.

[Dunnstral]

uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.

Mafia could have this role:


The Think Tank

Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. If that player has any special role abilities, they will be neutralized and no longer usable for the remainder of the game. This shot is not returned if the selected player has no special abilities.

Separately, twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told if that player has ever used any non-fatal night action.

[Jackofhearts2005]

uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.

Mafia could have this role:


The Think Tank

Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. If that player has any special role abilities, they will be neutralized and no longer usable for the remainder of the game. This shot is not returned if the selected player has no special abilities.

Separately, twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told if that player has ever used any non-fatal night action.

Manny is a 2 shot watcher who claimed blocked N2. Unless the shot doesn’t get burned when blocked (which iirc, is how Jay has done it in the past), Manny’s “vanilla” anyways.

I believe it was Mac who called Manny claiming blocked before it happened.

[Dunnstral]

I'd like to update the thread and say I have a new read for mr house who I won't be sharing with the thread (it's dunn)

The best reasoning for me not being third party is that I made myself a big target by going after falcon and now Macdouglas. Plus a lot of people think I'm town, so I make a lot of sense as a kill from the mafia faction.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Oh! Also, wolves had to have killed Long Con cause literally otherwise it’s the sk targeting his partner.

But mostly the explosion picture.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Gth, “Tony is an innocent child. Tony is null” is a thing Mac says about townTony, not wolfTony.

[Jackofhearts2005]

*wolfMac

[Dunnstral]

Oh! Also, wolves had to have killed Long Con cause literally otherwise it’s the sk targeting his partner.

But mostly the explosion picture.

I don't think the third party roles were aligned or knew of each other.

[MacDougall]

I want to apologize to Mac. I should not have posted that picture- that was not in good taste whatsoever.

all good mate

[MacDougall]

Brad is town via being out of his range.
Chelsea is town because she was one of Abi's top town and Abi wouldn't have been killed in any mafia teams where their top town was mafia.
Dunnstral is just towny af. Along with Lanmisa.
Epi is probably not mafia due to lack of self pres and voting with Falcon d1 off wagon but that's not for sure.
Creature is following his mafia playstyle curve and not solving the way he generally does. He's not exhibiting Creature brand paranoia
Jack is now outed by his day 1 eod vote positioning.
TSP is a bit of an IC here.
Manny has been wolfsiding all game long egregiously.

Upper POE

Epi

Lower POE

Manny
Creature
Jack

Epi is probably Mr House.

What was my D1 vote positioning?

Didn’t Manny literally bag us a wolf yesterday?

Let me frame it another way.

Manny claimed a real mafia night action as a mafia to lend credence to his assigned fake claim.

Falcon survived the initial claim. Falcon then didn't survive because a whole bunch of people not named Manny pushed him over.

Manny even initially read Falcon targeting Seanzie as probably town when he outed the action.

Far from clearing.

[MacDougall]

my read on manny is that mac has to blame someone for bad things happening and bad things aren't the fault of you or creature so by process of elimination it's manny which actually isn't a good read but I need mac to be town for me to be happy

Bad things like a mafia dying? Weird assessment.

[MacDougall]

Epi is now voting someone on a critical day 4 because "you're not fun to play with". Because I reacted to a 4 vote wagon aggressively.

Epi who is himself image posting.

Epi who is himself a curmudgeon.

If I was independent in this I'd be questioning Epi as to whether not enjoying someone's playstyle is a reasonable reason to be voting them on day 4.

Easier explanation is his agenda doesn't concern the town wincon tbh.

This is a desperate but valid point, the kinda point I make as a wolf when I feel like I’m caught for the wrong reasons.

Mac wolf, Epi sk or vice versa (and I know I just made fun of Mac’s 3P read on Epi) is a distinct possibility.

A point you wouldn't make as town in my shoes?

Bad faith appraisal.

[MacDougall]

uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.

Means wolves thought killing LC (or possibly Scotty) was more important than killing essential IC Manny.

Who besides me was stanning Long Con?

Or maybe they role copped him N2 and thought they were in good position in spite of the Falcon yeet? That feels wrong.

Or Manny is alive because he's mafia and wolves don't kill wolves.

[MacDougall]

uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.

Mafia could have this role:


The Think Tank

Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. If that player has any special role abilities, they will be neutralized and no longer usable for the remainder of the game. This shot is not returned if the selected player has no special abilities.

Separately, twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told if that player has ever used any non-fatal night action.

Manny is a 2 shot watcher who claimed blocked N2. Unless the shot doesn’t get burned when blocked (which iirc, is how Jay has done it in the past), Manny’s “vanilla” anyways.

I believe it was Mac who called Manny claiming blocked before it happened.

Manny was going to be doing that as mafia. He was going to be really blocked if he was town. It's wifom tbh.

He's scummy because he's wolfsiding. He voted me yesterday and kept it there despite me trying my best to read him in good faith because it was the pro wolf thing to do in the context.

If you want to clear him off of his check. I'd ask whether it actually makes sense for him to have actually made the check that he made contextually or whether it's more likely he knew Falcon's real action and claimed that because it was safer to claim a real action he knew occurred to avoid getting outed by someone else providing information that contradicted a hail Mary claim.

If you are the mafia watcher you have to claim the town watcher and you have to claim a real action. It's not clearing and aside from that he is deeply poe.

[MacDougall]

*wolfMac

Yes well it's also a thing town Mac says because town Mac is saying it.

[MacDougall]

I think the fact Jack is now acting like all of me is holistically wolfy is quite strong evidence he's not analysing in good faith given I'm not even voting him.

I'd like Jack to tell me who my teammates are.

[MacDougall]

I also would hope people have read mine and Falcon's isos to see if we looked teamed. I don't believe my analysis of Falcon, my play around the moments Falcon was under fire or his day 1 cajoling of me are remotely partner indicative.

I also would think that if Manny was town in a Mac mafia team it'd be fairly asinine for me to shoot Scotty or LC last night. I also think the idea that I'd have killed Abigail or Michelle n1 shouldn't pass the logic test for people who know anything about me.

[MacDougall]

I know Scotty claimed I was partners with Falcon which I question how because it's not true and also I don't look like Falcon's partner but you can certainly use that as evidence against me.

[MacDougall]

Still wondering whether I'm gonna get an answer from Chelsea about why they had Creature top town

I did never receive this answer.

[MacDougall]

Abi, while you’re here and obviously not busy, talk to me about Sig wowee

Uh Mac and Seanzie wagons succ so I'm voting the next biggest wagon I don't explicitly town read

Doubt mafia kills this if Seanzie is mafia. Town Abigail looks like a wolf ally in Seanzie or Mac mafia worlds.

Why I townread Seanzie btw.

[MacDougall]

Chelsea, Manny, Scotty, TSP, LC, Jack level 1 POE off wago. Probably 1 between Epi and Falcon due to the RO3 on the Seanzie wagon (unless Seanzie is mafia and I'm misreading the NKA).

Jack's EOD felt the most like "I'm just here so I won't get fined". Scotty at least was progressing the game so I will do the due diligence of trying to read you in good faith and solve with you and see if we can find a way to obv town you through townsiding. Chelsea feels like a reliably likely wolf, though probably not w/w with Manny, who I actually do think is the towniest in the list. Don't think LC hit town notes, and Jack had him as a member of his towncore so @Jackofhearts2005 elaborate on your LC read in a way that I can believe or I'll lock POE you.

@TonyStarkPrime speed up your curve and get towny or die.

@falcon45ca dome @Epignosis.

Not aligned with Falcon.

[MacDougall]

Seanzie is a name I think should get resolved at some point.

For now:
[VOTE: falcon] aubergine for science

I think Seanzie is fairly townie atm.

Scotty votes my partner Falcon but I care more about his push on Seanzie than contending with him about Falcon. Cuz I scumread Falcon and was fine with the vote. Because I'm town.

[MacDougall]

Thanks for the fish.

Fuck it Scotty can be town.

Do you base this on the mech post? I find that a tad odd because anyone can speak on mech, especially considering it's basically truth-talk and busy work Day 1. It's probably the most irrelevant line of conversation you can go down. Now, given it's RVS at that point, sure talk away on a matter I consider unimportant but out of all of Scotty's early posts, why that one?

I can't decipher whether your reaction is over-eager or just premature. Even with your later answer just doesn’t feel like you should be this set.

Lots of incorrect assumptions in this post.

@Scotty can you add Dunnstral to towncore lol.

Dunnstral is either towniest of towns or deepwolf, as I’ve said.

I don’t think there’s a middle ground. And I’m afraid to commit to either

I think Dunnstral and Falcon are actually a hard difference check.

Putting Falcon in another difference check.

This is textbook town Mac. Y'all are actually wilding with these votes.