Fallout New Vegas: A Post-Nuclear Mafia Game [LEGION CONQUEST]

[Chelsea]

TSP, were you just busy D1?

It seems like your activity has picked up more and more each phase and I feel like that's a tell, however I can't really figure out in what direction.

[Manny]

I'm waiting for Mac to post cap before we just push him over tbf I have zero interest in engaging with it.

Im waiting to see if i bother trying to force the yeet away from Mac or not :curtain:

[Chelsea]

I'm waiting for Mac to post cap before we just push him over tbf I have zero interest in engaging with it.

Im waiting to see if i bother trying to force the yeet away from Mac or not :curtain:

Bold you to assume you have that level of sway.

Don't know why you'd even do that since you're trying to say we are a dif check and one of the dif check is going over.

[Manny]

Bold you to assume you have that level of sway.

Pretty sure if i try i can get one of epi or creature dead over Mac, i just dont know if i want to do that yet.
I think you two are a diffcheck but currently it seems a lot more likely for him to be the town between you two, my only minor tinfoil is Mac himself asking to be bussed but i dont think thats his style.

[Manny]

@LanMisa come start postting alr smh

[Chelsea]

Bold you to assume you have that level of sway.

Pretty sure if i try i can get one of epi or creature dead over Mac, i just dont know if i want to do that yet.
I think you two are a diffcheck but currently it seems a lot more likely for him to be the town between you two, my only minor tinfoil is Mac himself asking to be bussed but i dont think thats his style.

Dang Manny did you bus your partner and now you're going "oh no I need to help Mac" that's crazy.

[Manny]

Dang Manny did you bus your partner and now you're going "oh no I need to help Mac" that's crazy.

You are crazy if you think there is a world of me being w/w with either Mac or Falcon, i couldnt be more clear if i screenshotted my role in thread.

[Chelsea]

Dang Manny did you bus your partner and now you're going "oh no I need to help Mac" that's crazy.

You are crazy if you think there is a world of me being w/w with either Mac or Falcon, i couldnt be more clear if i screenshotted my role in thread.

One day you will understand my sarcasm.

[Manny]

One day you will understand my sarcasm.

Its funnier to play the straight man.
who you think is a wolf with Mac btw?

[Chelsea]

One day you will understand my sarcasm.

Its funnier to play the straight man.
who you think is a wolf with Mac btw?

That requires reading Mac iso and I'm not doing that until I have a day to do it. Of course I have ideas but quite frankly it's not really a relevant conversation.

[Chelsea]

(Also I don't think it's a mystery what I think the answer to that question is at a baseline but that can change)

[Jackofhearts2005]

Oh! Also, wolves had to have killed Long Con cause literally otherwise it’s the sk targeting his partner.

But mostly the explosion picture.

I don't think the third party roles were aligned or knew of each other.

Disagree. Look at LC’s flip.

[Jackofhearts2005]

You know what doesn’t ever help me solve Mac? Mac quoting his own iso and talking about his own meta. It’s either true cause Mac’s town or fakeable because Mac is pointing it out.

This isn’t unique to Mac, I’m just annoyed at how much of today has been Mac talking about Mac.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also really obnoxious that like none of the people voting Mac seem to have any interest in participating in the game besides Dunn

That too.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Chelsea 0
No votes
Voters: None

Creature 0
No votes
Voters: None

DarlingMonroe 0
No votes
Voters: None

Dunnstral 0
No votes
Voters: None

Epignosis 1
5%
Voters: Manny

falcon45ca 0
No votes
Voters: None

Jackofhearts2005 0
No votes
Voters: None

LanMisa 0
No votes
Voters: None

Lime Coke 0
No votes
Voters: None

Long Con 0
No votes
Voters: None

MacDougall 1
5%
Voters: Creature

Manny 1
5%
Voters: Chelsea

Michelle 0
No votes
Voters: None

Princess Abigail 0
No votes
Voters: None

Scotty 2
10%
Voters: Long Con, Jackofhearts2005

Seanzie 3
14%
Voters: falcon45ca, Epignosis, MacDougall

sig 7
33%
Voters: Dunnstral, Michelle, Seanzie, Scotty, Lime Coke, ☆Princess Abigail☆, LanMisa

TonyStarkPrime 0
No votes
Voters: None

No elimination / Sleep 0
No votes
Voters: None

No vote / Unvote 1
5%
Voters: TonyStarkPrime

D1 eod.

There have been sig voters dying every night. None have flipped mafia thus far. Why are the mafia continuously killing sig voters? Only Lan, Brad and Dunnstral remain alive from the 7. Probably 1 mafia here at most. It's probably pure tbh.

Falcon was off wagon on Seanzie with Epi and I. I am town. Epi is probably not stacking with Falcon here because it's just not textbook wolf play.

LC now outed 3p and Jack voting Scotty who is now confirmed town. This is why I am saying Jack is probably outed by d1 vote logic. If Jack is not mafia, why are mafia not voting Scotty? This is basic wagonomics.

Creature off wagon on me. Chelsea off wagon on Manny. Manny off wagon on Epi
TSP not voting at all.

Mafia under zero threat so they can all split and throw votes on vanities and call it a day.

They do that then go to night and prioritise killing two townie sig voters. Then another n2. Then another n3. They don't likely do this if one is on sig because it narrows them down into a smaller solvable group.

Jack is very likely mafia. Manny/Chelsea is probably 1 between them. Creature is probably the third.

This is the basis of my analysis I did over night

Tbh, even if I didn’t know this was wrong, I wouldn’t get what youre on about.

Why does mafia have to be on the Scotty wagon? Why doesn’t the same apply to the Mac wagon? Why is the Sig wagon pure or one wolf at most?

Mafia hasn’t been solely shooting the Sig wagon because they shot Scotty last night but it’s hard to tell how much that even enters into what you’re trying to say cause there’s just these huge logical leaps that you’re not explaining.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I meant they shot LC who was on Scotty, not Sig, last night.

[Dunnstral]

Oh! Also, wolves had to have killed Long Con cause literally otherwise it’s the sk targeting his partner.

But mostly the explosion picture.

I don't think the third party roles were aligned or knew of each other.

Disagree. Look at LC’s flip.

Good point. I thought they didn't flip with any info.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Day 2 Poll


Day 2 elimination
Poll ended at Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:00 pm


Chelsea
3
15%
Voters: Seanzie, TonyStarkPrime, MacDougall
Creature
0
No votes
Voters: None
DarlingMonroe / NANOOK
5
25%
Voters: LanMisa, Epignosis, Lime Coke, Creature, Chelsea
Dunnstral
0
No votes
Voters: None
Epignosis
1
5%
Voters: falcon45ca
falcon45ca
0
No votes
Voters: None
Jackofhearts2005
1
5%
Voters: Scotty
LanMisa
0
No votes
Voters: None
Lime Coke
1
5%
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Long Con
1
5%
Voters: Dunnstral
MacDougall
1
5%
Voters: Manny
Manny
2
10%
Voters: Long Con, Jackofhearts2005
Scotty
0
No votes
Voters: None
Seanzie
0
No votes
Voters: None
TonyStarkPrime
0
No votes
Voters: None
No elimination / Sleep
0
No votes
Voters: None
No vote / Unvote (no called vote needed)
0
No votes
Voters: None
Flat Sunset Sarsaparilla (spec)
5
25%
Voters: S~V~S, Justplayingitcool, ☆Princess Abigail☆, juliets, JaggedJimmyJay
Total votes: 20

Five living players voting Nanook over a Chelsea counterwagon with a dead town, TSP and ya boi on it.

There are clearly wolves voting Nanook here. Just on maths.

Chelsea is the c/w and one of her voters died immediately.

Chelsea has probably 3 town voting her here.

You wanna vote out a Chelsea voter here and not the actual c/w itself that clears me AND TSP?

But why? Why can’t it be t vs t wagons with votes split between Nook, Chelsea and off wagon? Why does the Chelsea wagon have to be pure and why do there have to be wolves on the Nook wagon?

I don’t get it.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I swear to mod if you’re town and postcap without answering my questions, Mac, I will never let you live it down.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Mac why you gotta make it hard to tr you, i was going to go for it if i didnt get nk'd since i think u would've normally but that is not real if u are going to push me zzz.
I think Mac/Chelsea is a diffcheck and i dont know if i actually wanna solve that today

i kinda just wanna kill epi and see who eats the nk

Sidenote: When I say difference check, I mean it. Like Manny/Sig was a mechanical difference check.

There’s nothing that makes exactly one of Mac/Chelsea mafia. I don’t have to squint very hard to see t/t t/w or w/w worlds. Like…why do you think that’s a difference check?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Chelsea is the c/w and one of her voters died immediately.

Seanzie was rolecopped by mafia

Arguments you make like this feel like you are trying to push a narrative rather than thinking things through. It feels like you are picking and choosing your points and evidence.

I agree but like fwiw, I’ve felt that way about town!Mac in the past.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Vote: Chelsea

This is a policy vote

[TonyStarkPrime]

You know what doesn’t ever help me solve Mac? Mac quoting his own iso and talking about his own meta. It’s either true cause Mac’s town or fakeable because Mac is pointing it out.

This isn’t unique to Mac, I’m just annoyed at how much of today has been Mac talking about Mac.

agree vaguely

[Jackofhearts2005]

viewtopic.php?p=1110861#p1110861

went to check why scotty might've died and this is a thing.
But mac being at 5 votes makes me think he's just lock!town and the designated miss-exe here, ugh.

Mac getting 5 votes = Mac locktown?

Let’s follow that train of logic so you say what you mean.

Do you mean that there are wolves in Mac’s wagon? Do you mean that wolves would have made a viable cw if Mac was a wolf?

Spell this shit out for me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Pretend I am a baby who has never vote analysised before

[Jackofhearts2005]

@TonyStarkPrime if you are town and you are townreading me you have unique information that shows Chelsea is a pure c/w to Nook with 3 votes.

Your perspective should be Chelsea is mafia. At min it should be Mac/Chelsea different.

Goo goo gaa gaa

[Jackofhearts2005]

People are missing the reasonable possibility that LC died as a result of poison or the result of game mechanics unknown to the common man, and that’s maybe relevant. But both kills are so out there that it’s hard to really manipulate that.

He literally asploded

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm waiting for Mac to post cap before we just push him over tbf I have zero interest in engaging with it.

Perhaps I could convince you? I’ve been told I’m very charming. Mostly by Juliets but whatever.

[VOTE: Chelsea] aubergine

[TonyStarkPrime]

Just the day 2 wagons with an MIA Lan

[LanMisa]

@LanMisa come start postting alr smh

Sorry, day was busy so far, had an online seminar with my students and also had to play chess games in the MU online tournament.

I'm going to look at the things that I missed and give you my thoughts on them as I see them.

[LanMisa]

So, according to the flips, Long Con had "pledged allegiance to Mr.House. I assume that

a) Long Con may have known the 3P then, and vice versa, and
b) Long Con should be the Mafia kill whereas Scotty was the 3P kill?

Would be ironic if the 3P ended up killing their own buddy at least.

[LanMisa]

I am now near mathematically confirmed town. Thanks y'all.

I get impulse-voting people you don't enjoy playing with but that's hardly a strategy for a game where you play to win...

I also don't quite understand the flashvote wagon on Mac since literally nobody gave an explanation but I guess I will hopefully find something along the line?

[LanMisa]

Abi and Seanzie townread me. Scotty was working amicably with me. LC I am fairly sure townread me but without stating as much. Michelle pressure voted me but really didn't suspect me.

Meanwhile all game long I've had Creature, Chelsea, Brad, Manny and Lanmisa threatening me existentially at all times and they're all still alive.

There's not a single reasonable argument that I am mafia aside from paranoia.

Seanzie was a pr kill. We know mafia rolecopped there now. Scotty called you mafia before they died. (And may have been a 3p kill anyway from a town perspective). Abigail was my top townread alongside Michelle and both of those kills make sense. You wouldn't be the only person on your team anyway, not every kill needs to center around you. Obviously town plus potentially threatening an ally is enough. All the names mentioned threatening you except Lanmisa can be seen as potential miseliminations from a mafia perspective.

Yeah, it stands to reason that Scotty was the 3P kill according to Long Con's flip.

Are you purely voting Mac out of flips/NAs though?

[Chelsea]

Vote: Chelsea

This is a policy vote

The irony on this made me laugh for a good 2 minutes

[Chelsea]

The way I took the 3p flip was they had to choose someone to join forces with and they picked the other 3p.

[LanMisa]

I think Manny is likely town for having outted seeing Falcon visit. Even thouh Manny wasn't the one to initially push Falcon for it.

Macdougall as I hinted at, I don't think you jumping straight to "mafia killed Scotty" makes sense and it seems you may privy to too much information here.

Ignoring the mechanics, Manny outing his result without hard pushing Falcon proves that he's town since if that was an elaborate bussing plot there was no need to downplay it for half of D2. Manny only really went for Falcon D3 when Falcon completely dipped anyways which is a rather natural...progression is the word I am looking for.

[LanMisa]

The way I took the 3p flip was they had to choose someone to join forces with and they picked the other 3p.

That seems to be the case, yeah.

[Chelsea]

Long Con does not seem like a good kill for mafia I can't think of a single team that would want that dead unless they knew Long Con was 3p?

I took the flip as they had to choose a wincon to join and they picked the 3p, not that they knew each other.

So I figured the 3p killed Long Con.

[Chelsea]

I'm waiting for Mac to post cap before we just push him over tbf I have zero interest in engaging with it.

Perhaps I could convince you? I’ve been told I’m very charming. Mostly by Juliets but whatever.

[VOTE: Chelsea] aubergine

[LanMisa]

Let me amend my opinion on Manny a bit. It is still possible that they are third party. The poisoner role has the same ability as the town role, and it is possible that this was their fake claim. My consideration here is that their claim was a result of thinking they were a possible elimination target. I still don't think Manny is a member of the mafia, but Manny has been hanging back enough and wasn't the one who made the initial push on Falcon, and I think they could be a third party.

Here is what I am thinking right now:

Chelsea - Town
LanMisa - Town
Lime Coke - Town
Jackofhearts2005 - Town

Manny - Town/3p
Creature - Town/3p

Epignosis - Town/Mafia/3p

MacDougall - Mafia
TonyStarkPrime - Mafia


Those listed as just town I have reasons for believing they're not mafia, and I think they're playing a bit too forward to be a third party. The third party roles in this game have weak protective abilities for themselves; either one-shot commute, show as vanilla to role cops, or night 1 bulletproof, and as the only member of the faction they don't want to make themselves kill targets for the mafia. For those listed as Town/3p, I have reasons to believe they are not aligned with the mafia, but still think they could be a third party. Epignosis is a big unknown; I do acknowledge they are currently voting for MacDougall, and I have bigger reasons to suspect other people. Those I listed as just Mafia I believe have associations that point towards them being a part of the mafia team.

I am open to counter arguments here.

Okay, can you give me some of your thoughts on Chelsea and Lime? Their interactions were a huge talking point on D2. I assume you believe Lime's read on Chelsea is genuine I assume?

Also, as I stated earlier the 3P had the Courier as a partner. While we don't know what that entails in its entirety do you think this weakens the "no protection" aspect of what you described earlier about 3Ps in this game or does your stance stay the same regardless?

[LanMisa]

Long Con does not seem like a good kill for mafia I can't think of a single team that would want that dead unless they knew Long Con was 3p?

I took the flip as they had to choose a wincon to join and they picked the 3p, not that they knew each other.

So I figured the 3p killed Long Con.

I mean, that's possible, I just feel like joining a 3P without that player being informed in any capacity about that feels... unfortunate, I guess. Or bad game design.

I guess we'll figure out post game.

[Creature]

Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?

I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding

[Chelsea]

Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?

I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding

Ty for being obvious town Creature.

[Creature]

LanMisa, Lime Coke and Manny are my townreads

like what would be the reason for Manny to out falcon like that even if that happened only one day later?

Kinda tempted to townread Chelsea too, but that's more circumstantial

Maybe Dunnstral too, but that'd be assuming all wolves are wolfsiding and there's not one wolf pretending to townside

atm I am ignoring SK

[Creature]

Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?

I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding

Ty for being obvious town Creature.

What have I done?

[Creature]

Could Epignosis be the SK for trolling with the outdoor image posts?

[Chelsea]

Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?

I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding

Ty for being obvious town Creature.

What have I done?

I think the stances you've taken, if my worldview is anywhere close to correct is sort of throwing if you're a wolf.

[Chelsea]

Long Con does not seem like a good kill for mafia I can't think of a single team that would want that dead unless they knew Long Con was 3p?

I took the flip as they had to choose a wincon to join and they picked the 3p, not that they knew each other.

So I figured the 3p killed Long Con.

I mean, that's possible, I just feel like joining a 3P without that player being informed in any capacity about that feels... unfortunate, I guess. Or bad game design.

I guess we'll figure out post game.

True, I don't think it needs to be talked about much. What's your read on Dunnstral?

[LanMisa]

he's not an outed wolf because he's been wolfy and there's circumstantial mech stuff, he's an outed wolf because either someone told him to shut up or he came to that conclusion himself

Which, for the record, does sorta limit who's on the wolf team but I don't know enough people in this game that I'm not really willing to make any determinations based on it

I don't understand the orange parts: Why does Falcon shutting down that way implicate any players or clear others from being partners here? I did see someone (Dunn?) point out that disappearing like that is very meta-like for Falcon and it's not like other teammates could have forced or prevented Falcon from showing up or staying out to begin with.

[Creature]

Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?

I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding

Ty for being obvious town Creature.

What have I done?

I think the stances you've taken, if my worldview is anywhere close to correct is sort of throwing if you're a wolf.

Honestly idk what I've been doing, but I think your read makes sense if Mac is a wolf here