Napoleon Dynamite Mafia [ENDGAME]

[S~V~S]

You got it

[Thunal33]

I think Wisdom would remember to send in the kill n1 even if her teammates didn't. I'd guess it's successful protections or blocks, not just forgetting to submit.

I kind of want to buy LPP's derp clear. LC is strong town to me after EoD yesterday, and SVS is strong town because of her Wisdom push.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

What is a symphony

[Dragon D. Luffy]

lol I don't remember when the last time town had a higher kill count than mafia was.

GJ jail keeper

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The third option is that the kills were never sent in on either night, because the whole Wolf team is not on the ball. Which is why I said Jibay/NANOOK/Roxy, the lowest-posters, with Roxy an additional angle of her leaving the thread angrily. Was she upset about being caught as a Wolf, and failed to return in time to put a kill in, and with Wisdom gone, only Jibay was left to take care of business, but didn't realize?

Not worth thinking about tbh.

Also, I do believe if there is no NK submitted, this is not mafia. but that's a problem for postgame (like EPi would ping the hell of wc or/and send a kill using random.org)

Fun fact I once found an article where the guy proved, mathematically, that the best strategy for town was to just vote at random every day. No discussion, just RNG.

Then I looked closely and realized they were talking about a version of the game where mafia did not have kills. Because somewhere, that version exists.

In the comments, someone said "what if you let mafia kill each night" and the author's response was like "hmm sounds interesting, bet that would even the odds!"

[Le petit poussin]

I think Wisdom would remember to send in the kill n1 even if her teammates didn't. I'd guess it's successful protections or blocks, not just forgetting to submit.

I kind of want to buy LPP's derp clear. LC is strong town to me after EoD yesterday, and SVS is strong town because of her Wisdom push.

Can you expand on LC (assuming Long Con here)?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I think only one wolf in thunal and Lime Coke and more inclined towards Thunal still

You made a similar post last EoD right as votes locked and left me intrigued. Why Thunal over Lime?

Two nights of no kills. We did have two protectors. Maybe motobot protected the right person on Night 1, did he mention anyone in a more pointed way or anything?

Or it was the Principal, protect-blocking someone each night. Double chance of stopping a kill, but then he doesn't know if he targeted the killer or the victim. Did it happen twice? Maybe.

I checked, Moto didn't give any reads d2. But now we can narrow the no kill down to the jailkeeper (or no submission ig, but I don't think that happened) so that could be useful.

It's possible moto just didn't think of leaving breadcrumbs, or commenting on the person he protected being town. He is fairly new at the game, I think? And his activity was pretty bad, maybe he just didn't care.

Though occam's razor is that our school principal just got really lucky tbh.

That said I'm not sure if the jailkeeper would straight up assume they targeted a townie. It's 50/50. But if I were them, I'd leave some sort of hint anyway.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

A bit concerned by Lime Coke's behaviour at EOD2 (lurking, selfpressing onto motobot on top of my head. prolly need to check if he posted about that slot heh)

I noticed it too, so I did some work during the night.

Turns out Lime did vote for Moto very early in the phase... but only in the thread, not in the poll. Here.

I just realized a reason Jack maybe isn't mafia and it might be dumb to clear someone for but this instance it might work.

[VOTE: motobot] aubergine

Just go here fuck it.

So I then tried to track when exactly he voted in the poll. If it was really near the poll locking, on earlier.

As of this post by Scotty, this was the poll:

(not gonna analyse the first 19 hours of the day. This is a DDL project not a JJJ one. The budget is not as high)

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005
1 (Lime)

Lime Coke
2 (Jack, Nanook)

motobot
1 (Wisdom)

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
1 (Long Con)

Thunal33
2 (DDL, Syn)

Wisdom
3 (Thunal, Scotty, SVS)

So Lime hadn't switched his vote in the poll yet. I then tracked the next votes to see how the wagons formed:

scotty: Syn to 1 (Wisdom to 2)
LPP: Syn to 2
Daisy: Long Con to 1
DDL: Lime to 3 (Thunal to 1)
Jibay: Syn to 3
Thunal: Long Con to 2 (Wisdom to 1)
dunya: Thunal to 2
Roxy: Roxy to 1
Long Con: Thunal to 3 (Nanook to 0)

Then Long Con made another tally, where we still don't see the moto vote by Lime:

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005
1 (Lime)

Lime Coke
3 (Jack, Nanook, DDL)

Long Con
2 (Daisy, Thunal)

motobot
1 (Wisdom)

Roxy
1 (Roxy)

Syn
3 (Jibay, LPP, Scotty)

Thunal33
3 (dunya, Syn, Long Con)

Wisdom
1 (SVS)

Finally, these are the final votes.

Thunal: Syn to 4 (Long Con to 1)
LPP: Moto to 2 (Syn to 3)
Thunal: Moto to 4 (Syn to 2)
SVS: Moto to 5 (Wisdom to 0)
[[[Lime: Moto to 3 (Jack to 0)]]]

I don't know where to place Lime's vote exactly. I know it's after LPP, because a little after LPP voted, LC made another of his meme posts about ties, and the count only fits if Lime hasn't voted. But Lime's vote could be before Thunal's, after THunal's, or after SVS's.

Anyway, Wisdom was the one who started the moto wagon. LPP raised it to 2, since Lime failed to vote in the poll. Then Thunal, Lime and SVS put it at 5, in unknown order.

My take from this is that Lime is terrible here, because I feel like the odds of him appearing in the last 15 minutes and making a vote he had forgotten to make is way more likely if there are angry teammates tagging him on discord. It's not a 100% odd, but likely.

LPP and SVS are possible candidates for counter-wagons from mafia, assuming there was even one. Thunal not really, since if was self-pres.

[Le petit poussin]

People aren't accusing each other yet and I feel like creating a crappy case on someone just to get discussion rolling but last game I did that and it was too crappy even for D1 standards, so instead if got everybody to make fun of me so I think this time I'll just shitpost until someone else does that work for me.

Pretend I'm a wolf and case me, awoo!

Hi! My town streak continues.

It's been over 3 years since the last time I was mafia.

Well mine isn’t quite that long. But this is the 6th (non turbo) game in a row I’ve been town and I’m loving the change from 2023 where I randed non-town in half my games.

I feel ya! I've had a 75% wolf rate since last summer so I'm just glad I got to town again, maybe the curse is over!

Maybe it's not.

[VOTE: Wisdom] aubergine

In a vacuum, I think DDL seems townie but this looks like w/w flirting.

actually this is the one post I liked from Jack early game.

Thunal straight up attacked it.

in hindsight, dunyas feeling about moto wagon being a counter to a wolf wagon makes sense to me smh.

Like Wisdom/DDL/Thunal lol.

The fact Wis just naked townread both these slots is giving me pause but heh.

Won't prevent me from

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine though

for now

[S~V~S]

~snip~

Speaking of mech talk, however, we CAN include some of that, given that this is a non-mountainous open setup. Maybe we can cook up some Town advantages.

I was looking through the roles, and I found a couple of things:
~snip~

Kip

Training to be a cage fighter, but in the meantime, chatting with babes on the Internet.

Each Night, you will search for LaFawnduh. If you find her, you will gain BTSC.


LaFawnduh

Yes, I love technology. But not as much as you, you see. But I still love technology. Always and forever.

Each Night, you can send Kip a private message (through the Host) a name who isn’t LaFawnduh. You’re playing hard to get.

To LaFawnduh: Send Kip the name that is one name below yours tonight. Then he will know who you are.

The first post, from early game, and the last post, from late in the day yesterday, solidified a strong town feel, to my mind. This was very much a thing town did where we came from, and i view LC trying to start that talk up as definitely protown.

Like I said before, I hope LaFawnduh saw it, too.

[Le petit poussin]

A bit concerned by Lime Coke's behaviour at EOD2 (lurking, selfpressing onto motobot on top of my head. prolly need to check if he posted about that slot heh)

I noticed it too, so I did some work during the night.

Turns out Lime did vote for Moto very early in the phase... but only in the thread, not in the poll. Here.

I just realized a reason Jack maybe isn't mafia and it might be dumb to clear someone for but this instance it might work.

[VOTE: motobot] aubergine

Just go here fuck it.

So I then tried to track when exactly he voted in the poll. If it was really near the poll locking, on earlier.

As of this post by Scotty, this was the poll:

(not gonna analyse the first 19 hours of the day. This is a DDL project not a JJJ one. The budget is not as high)

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005
1 (Lime)

Lime Coke
2 (Jack, Nanook)

motobot
1 (Wisdom)

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
1 (Long Con)

Thunal33
2 (DDL, Syn)

Wisdom
3 (Thunal, Scotty, SVS)

So Lime hadn't switched his vote in the poll yet. I then tracked the next votes to see how the wagons formed:

scotty: Syn to 1 (Wisdom to 2)
LPP: Syn to 2
Daisy: Long Con to 1
DDL: Lime to 3 (Thunal to 1)
Jibay: Syn to 3
Thunal: Long Con to 2 (Wisdom to 1)
dunya: Thunal to 2
Roxy: Roxy to 1
Long Con: Thunal to 3 (Nanook to 0)

Then Long Con made another tally, where we still don't see the moto vote by Lime:

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005
1 (Lime)

Lime Coke
3 (Jack, Nanook, DDL)

Long Con
2 (Daisy, Thunal)

motobot
1 (Wisdom)

Roxy
1 (Roxy)

Syn
3 (Jibay, LPP, Scotty)

Thunal33
3 (dunya, Syn, Long Con)

Wisdom
1 (SVS)

Finally, these are the final votes.

Thunal: Syn to 4 (Long Con to 1)
LPP: Moto to 2 (Syn to 3)
Thunal: Moto to 4 (Syn to 2)
SVS: Moto to 5 (Wisdom to 0)
[[[Lime: Moto to 3 (Jack to 0)]]]

I don't know where to place Lime's vote exactly. I know it's after LPP, because a little after LPP voted, LC made another of his meme posts about ties, and the count only fits if Lime hasn't voted. But Lime's vote could be before Thunal's, after THunal's, or after SVS's.

Anyway, Wisdom was the one who started the moto wagon. LPP raised it to 2, since Lime failed to vote in the poll. Then Thunal, Lime and SVS put it at 5, in unknown order.

My take from this is that Lime is terrible here, because I feel like the odds of him appearing in the last 15 minutes and making a vote he had forgotten to make is way more likely if there are angry teammates tagging him on discord. It's not a 100% odd, but likely.

LPP and SVS are possible candidates for counter-wagons from mafia, assuming there was even one. Thunal not really, since if was self-pres.

I do think he voted in the last 5 minutes or something yeah. Can't remember the order though.

DOn't remove Thunal from the suspect pool because she self-pressed (not sure it's what you are doing, I just want to make sure you aren't doing it though )

[Syn]

btw I am sorry to inform you that Wisdom flipping wolf makes you IC to me. glgl

Syn is innocent child? I forget what that means.

He was Wisdom's first (only?) real push. I think that makes him lock town

I do not grok this

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I also made another big post (yes, I was gambling really hard on not dying N2. Also I was bored).

You all needed it, so I'm coming down with it.

EVERYONE'S INTERACTIONS WITH WISDOM

(without quotes, because again, the JJJ-level budget is no longer available)

First of all, the wolf herself:

- Wisdom
D1: says I'm town when I accuse her. Cases Syn and votes him. Names me, Lime and Thunal as main town reads, and Syn/Long Com as main wolves. Continues to defend me and Thunal. Votes falcon for no reason. Defends herself against SVS multiple times.

Posts a reads list: me and Thunal main town reads, Lime not sure anymore, dunya lean town, Syn neutral, falcon bad, inactives bad.

Says Lime being nice to dunya is NAI. Leans town on Scotty. Says she would yeet Roxy or falcon over Scotty. Announces SVS is a townread. Agrees with her negative take on falcon. Gets cold feet on falcon wagon. But mentions she thinks it's pure. Questions Jack on his town read of Long Con and says she is considering voting there.

Posts another reads list. Main townies are me, SVS and Thunal, main wolves are falcon, LC/LC and moto. Tries to start a flash wagon on DADV, and votes moto. States she would feel bad about misyeeting Lime.

D2: low activity, stating RL reasons. Mostly self-defense. Throws shade on Moto again. Asks dunya for a daisy read. Makes a weak town read of Roxy. Votes moto again. When questioned by Thunal on Lime, says she's null on him. "I had him as town but I dunno, I want more on him". LPP is "town for bad reasons". Arrives right as the day ends, says she is not moving to Thunal after the vote locked.

Next, all the possible teammate candidates. I'll be listing how each person talked about/with Wisdom, then being up a summary of what Wisdom said about them. Finally, I'll provided a GTH read of them, considering only they relationship with Wisdom. GTH means either town or mafia, no null reads allowed.

1- SVS
from her: Calls wisdom manipulative on D0 and again D1. Argues with her. Ends up voting falcon. D2 brings it up again and votes her after naming her among a few options. Suspects dunya for defending wisdom. Continues to attack Wisdom. Is the last one to drop her wagon when it's clear it won't take off.
GTH: town (solid casing and pursuit from SVS. Lots of defenses from Wisdom, seems like pocketing. Since she also defends me and I know that's pocketing, it could be a pattern)

2 - dunya:
from her: D1:asks Wisdom some questions. Agrees with a post from SVS suspecting her. Discusses reads with Wisdom a few times. Says Lime isn't wolf with Wisdom or Roxy. Is friendly about her emotions. Says Lime is wishy-washy on Wisdom.
D2: Attacks a post from Thunal suspecting Wisdom, while also speculating they could be w/w. Discusses more cases with Wisdom. Later soft defends wisdom against Thunal. Replies to a post from Wisdom asking who is responsible for he moto yeet, and accuses Thunal 1st and Lime 2nd.
GTH: wolf (losts of posts that could be friendly Wolf banter, dunya throws some shade but not strongly and prioritizes other people. Also makes some defenses. Wisdom leans town on her too.)

3. jibay:
from him: no mention
from Wisdom: no mention. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: wolf (no mention is wolfy, though low post count kind of explains it on his side)

4. nanook
from him: calls wisdom town early, doesn't have a reason. Pushes other wagons
from Wisdom: no mention. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: wolf (calling a teammate town early is ballsy, but the lack of mentions afterwards even when inquired by other people is wolfy. No mention from Wisdom is wolfy)

5. roxy
from her: builds a case early, mentions she suspects her a few times, votes her in the end of D1. mentions she still want to vote wisdom D2, though ends up voting herself.
from Wisdom: soft town read once. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: town (good D1 from Roxy. D2 isn't great but it seemed like a personal thing. Low mention from Wisdom is wolfy though.)

6. daisy
from her: expresses doubt about the wisdom wagon early D2 in a big post, but says she will double check. Later on mentions her again in another big post, leaning mafia
from Wisdom: interacts, but doesn't talk of her. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: wolf (easy for Daisy to put wisdom suspicions in the middle of big posts, but not vote there. Low mentions from Wisdom is wolfy.)

7. lime
from him: soft defense of wisdom D1, implying he considered yeeting her but explaining why he won't. Never mentions her again.
from Wisdom: all over the place. Initially defends, then flips all the way to a main suspect, then later calls him null and doesn't acknowledge ving him as a main suspect before.
GTH: wolf (soft defense by Lime D1 and lack of mention on D2. Wisdom could be setting a misyeet on him, but she is never quite focusing on him for that)

8. LPP:
from him: asks Wisdom about her opinion. Promises a few times to other people he will provide a wisdom reason eventually. Never does.
from Wisdom: little mention, though he was inactive D1 when she was active. One soft town post.
GTH: wolf (LPP seems aware of her but never actually commiting to a read, which is wolfy. Wisdom didn't quite have the timing to talk about him so her side is null)

9. Syn
from him: states he doesn't want wisdom killed D1, no explanation. Repeats D2, again no explanation
GTH: town (Syn a bit too ballsy for teammates. The Wisdom side is tricky, she cases him earlier then just forgets about him)

10. Jack
from him: Makes GTH read that I'm a wolf with Wisdom. Changes his mind a while later. Agrees with a post from SVS casing Wisdom. Explains his LC town read to Wisdom when questioned. Later on states that he disagrees with people's defense of Wisdom, though he is willing to wait another day to vote. Says he has na "uninspired" scum read on her.
GTH: town (not strong on it, but Jack is suspecting her from diferente angles and bringing it up again. She doesn't go after Jack much though, which is wolfy)

11. Long Con:
from him: no mention
GTH: Wolf (no mention from LC is wolfy, even more with a higher post count. The Wisdom side is null, she throws shade a few times but doesn't really pursue)

12. thunal:
from her: D1: Earlier calls her town, comparing to her own previous xperiences being suspected. Later on is surprised Wisdom is townreading her, discusses reads with her.
D2: suspects Wisdom for her comment on falcon. Says she is aware she looks w/w with Wisdom but states her opinion has changed. Says Scotty is towny for agreeing on Wisdom. Says Wisdom is her 2nd main suspect (Lime is 1st) and votes Lime. Questions nanook on his Wisdom townread. Says she is not sure on Wisdom anymore. Changes her mind on Lime and moves to Wisdom. Makes an ISO of Wisdom and decides she changed her mind on her too. Votes Long Con. Speculates on her again, saying she could be either alignment.
GTH: town (Thunal's day 1 is bad, day 2 is better, but the main thing is that she brings a lot of attention to Wisdom, often negative. Wisdom's side could be pocketing or maybe she threw a scummate in the mix)

13. Scotty:
from him: D1: early joke vote on Wisdom. Agrees with me on a Wisdom suspicion. Agrees with Wisdom on a town DDL read. Builds a case against her. Argues about it with Thunal. Continues to mention her as a suspect. Mindmelds with SVS on that. Implies Wisdom could be 3P. Later says Wisdom's posts feel good, but suspects her lack of mention of him. Then says he keeps suspecting her, though he's aware he's voting with her elsewhere.
D2: says Wisdom could have TMI for trying a flash wagon. Says she and Thunal could be w/w. Continues to case her. Accepts Wisdom's meta defense. Brings up the flash wagon again. Votes Wisdom. Then finds a post from Wisdom that he believes absolves her, and unvotes. Later says he hasn't made his mind on her yet. Then posts a tier list with Wisdom as one of the main suspects. Votes her again. Questions Nanook's defense of her. Suspects other people for townreading her with no explanation. Before leaving lists her among a list of possible votes. Votes Syn.
GTH: town (Scotty is not as sure as SVS, but cases her a lot and keeps bringing up attention to her. From Wisdom there are some townreads, though not as involved as me/SVS/Thunal, so that side is null.)

GTH results:

town:

DDL ( )
SVS
Scotty
Thunal
Syn
Roxy
Jack

mafia:

Lime
nanook
dunya
LPP
Jibay
daisy
Long Con

So obviously there are no 7 wolves, but I tried to ignore setup proportion when picking the reads, to capture what I really feel. This does mean I don't intend to touch those people in the Town list, unless someone can convince me to change my mind on those interactions.

There are some weirdnessess here too, like Syn getting a town read for defending Wisdom and nanook not getting it after defending one, but feeling plays a role here. I think one w/w defense is feasible, and Nanook is the kind of troll who might do it. Two defenses on different days is VERY bold, and I'm not sure if Syn would do it.

Daisy looks bad-ish in this list, but otherwise I've been feeling her pretty town. I kind of liked Long Con in D2 too.

Anyway, I really want to kill Lime here. I've been suspecting him for a while, his Day 2 is the worst ever and he doesn't look great interacting with our known flipped wolf.

Otherwise I'd be ok with yeeting Nanook, dunya, LPP or Jibay.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

[Syn]

Everyone should send music to symphony. It's the best categories in all the years I've done it. JOIN OR ELSE

that's not what you said in private about them

wolfy

[Syn]

btw I am sorry to inform you that Wisdom flipping wolf makes you IC to me. glgl

Syn is innocent child? I forget what that means.

He was Wisdom's first (only?) real push. I think that makes him lock town

actually let me retract that. She went from casing him at SOD1 to putting him at null after a while, felt like she forgot she had made the scum read in the first place. Not sure what this means wrt Syn's alignment.

But it's not as much clearing as I was remembering. sadge tbh

ok crisis averted

[Dragon D. Luffy]

DOn't remove Thunal from the suspect pool because she self-pressed (not sure it's what you are doing, I just want to make sure you aren't doing it though )

I'm not doing it. Self-pres is a null tell.

[Syn]

What is a symphony

is a walrus: https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2653

[Le petit poussin]

~snip~

Speaking of mech talk, however, we CAN include some of that, given that this is a non-mountainous open setup. Maybe we can cook up some Town advantages.

I was looking through the roles, and I found a couple of things:
~snip~

Kip

Training to be a cage fighter, but in the meantime, chatting with babes on the Internet.

Each Night, you will search for LaFawnduh. If you find her, you will gain BTSC.


LaFawnduh

Yes, I love technology. But not as much as you, you see. But I still love technology. Always and forever.

Each Night, you can send Kip a private message (through the Host) a name who isn’t LaFawnduh. You’re playing hard to get.

To LaFawnduh: Send Kip the name that is one name below yours tonight. Then he will know who you are.

The first post, from early game, and the last post, from late in the day yesterday, solidified a strong town feel, to my mind. This was very much a thing town did where we came from, and i view LC trying to start that talk up as definitely protown.

Like I said before, I hope LaFawnduh saw it, too.

agreed (LC being town)

unrelated but "LaFawnDuh" is cracking me up smh (it's phonetic for the french "La fondue" which would mean "the nut one" in that context lol). Really need to watch that movie again.

[Le petit poussin]

btw I am sorry to inform you that Wisdom flipping wolf makes you IC to me. glgl

Syn is innocent child? I forget what that means.

He was Wisdom's first (only?) real push. I think that makes him lock town

actually let me retract that. She went from casing him at SOD1 to putting him at null after a while, felt like she forgot she had made the scum read in the first place. Not sure what this means wrt Syn's alignment.

But it's not as much clearing as I was remembering. sadge tbh

ok crisis averted

:curtain:

[Dragon D. Luffy]

One thing that called my attention is that Wisdom seriously had a towncore. Namely me, SVS and Thunal. She also defended Scotty quite a lot.

I could see one wolf there, because statistics. Two, there is no way. The fact everyone in that core is someone I'm townreading due to the previous analysis rn contradicts that, though. Maybe it's really Thunal.

[Le petit poussin]

One thing that called my attention is that Wisdom seriously had a towncore. Namely me, SVS and Thunal. She also defended Scotty quite a lot.

I could see one wolf there, because statistics. Two, there is no way. The fact everyone in that core is someone I'm townreading due to the previous analysis rn contradicts that, though. Maybe it's really Thunal.

yeah, I have reduce the wolf pool to Thunal/you in their towncore. I do share your concerns but I am not ruling it out (2 wolves in her towncore scenario). I will try to make my mind about it tmr (I see your wall but won't touch it tonight, too many words and it's past midnight here).

stay safe friendos, su tmr

[S~V~S]

Seeing Wisdom flip bad gave me some feels, about how baddies act when they think they are safe.

I have to process all that, and read more to see who looks like they could be teamed with Wisdom as a good place for me to start.

The two people who felt most teamed with Wisdom to me, in retrospect, are Thunal and Dunya. I don't think they're teamed with each other, though.

In my first list, Dunya was prolly town, but I missed her on my second. Thunal I had as lean town first list, and firm town the second.

For overall various reasons I still feel townier re Thunal, but i plan to iso both.

I do think that whoever might have been teamies with Wisdom was fairly familiar with me, since she pocketed me somewhat, and I can be susceptible to that. Plus she was one of the people who responded when DDL asked, "Why is SVS town?"

@Dragon D. Luffy I read that towncore, at least as it related to me, as pocketing. But it could be possible.

[Syn]

9. Syn
from him: states he doesn't want wisdom killed D1, no explanation. Repeats D2, again no explanation
GTH: town (Syn a bit too ballsy for teammates. The Wisdom side is tricky, she cases him earlier then just forgets about him)

it was purely based on the last game I played with them, where they were handled similarly as in this game and subsequently flipped town. not a good reason based on just this game

though I won't pretend I wolf-read them, since I didn't

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

-.-

[Le petit poussin]

@DDL: I read ur stuff finally: I can see why you would think my behaviour around Wisdom was wolfy. I just didn't get time to do a full ISO (was trying to real time while ISOing low posters or stuff that pinged me) and it seemed villa!Wisdom to me anyway (ngl she is a good wolf and a weird yet accurate villager lol).

it won't help you but it's true hehe.

Now I am really off.

[Le petit poussin]

-.-

I have a story for you Nanook. A long time ago, in a far away galaxy, Tim, HK and I were woofing. We couldn't kill a villager before N3 lol. it didn't end well.

Spoiler: show

[Dragon D. Luffy]

If you people think my big post is too big (it is), I suggest you read the text in front of the "GTH", then read the above if you want more details. Alternatively, just ISO the people yourselves. You should all be doing that anyway. And feel free to ISO me too, since I can't do that.

But really, interactions with Wisdom are the biggest piece of evidence we should all be looking at.

[S~V~S]

I think Wisdom would remember to send in the kill n1 even if her teammates didn't. I'd guess it's successful protections or blocks, not just forgetting to submit.

I kind of want to buy LPP's derp clear. LC is strong town to me after EoD yesterday, and SVS is strong town because of her Wisdom push.

I have seen Rox floated as potentially bad becasue of the no kill, but I would doubt that, at least for that reasoning.

She is a responsible person, and will send in her PM if she has one. I saw her in a game once with a bad teammate, who didn't come to chat, who sent in team decisions with no discussion, and who basically went rogue in thread, and Roxy must have been at wits end (I heard this post game as i was playing) and i know she was super annoyed, but she did what she had to do and sent in her PM's.

So if she is bad (and tbh, I don't think she is) it isn't for that reason.

[S~V~S]

If you people think my big post is too big (it is), I suggest you read the text in front of the "GTH", then read the above if you want more details. Alternatively, just ISO the people yourselves. You should all be doing that anyway. And feel free to ISO me too, since I can't do that.

But really, interactions with Wisdom are the biggest piece of evidence we should all be looking at.

Two thumbs up here, I don't share all of your conclusions, but if we all had the same thoughts, this whole thing would be boring and pointless.

Now I gotta stop tangenting and just read.

[Lime Coke]

Okay two nights in a row without a death so like...there has to be a wolf team that just isn't active or doing night actions...right?

[Thunal33]

I think Wisdom would remember to send in the kill n1 even if her teammates didn't. I'd guess it's successful protections or blocks, not just forgetting to submit.

I kind of want to buy LPP's derp clear. LC is strong town to me after EoD yesterday, and SVS is strong town because of her Wisdom push.

Can you expand on LC (assuming Long Con here)?

I like that he found a good mech strategy with LaFawnDuh which means he was actually thinking about how to make the mech better for town.

I also liked how he reevaluated on me at EoD and his poking around later yesterday.

[Lime Coke]

Also I never knew Le Petit was Rask this entire time...

[Thunal33]

I think Wisdom would remember to send in the kill n1 even if her teammates didn't. I'd guess it's successful protections or blocks, not just forgetting to submit.

I kind of want to buy LPP's derp clear. LC is strong town to me after EoD yesterday, and SVS is strong town because of her Wisdom push.

I have seen Rox floated as potentially bad becasue of the no kill, but I would doubt that, at least for that reasoning.

She is a responsible person, and will send in her PM if she has one. I saw her in a game once with a bad teammate, who didn't come to chat, who sent in team decisions with no discussion, and who basically went rogue in thread, and Roxy must have been at wits end (I heard this post game as i was playing) and i know she was super annoyed, but she did what she had to do and sent in her PM's.

So if she is bad (and tbh, I don't think she is) it isn't for that reason.

Yeah, I trust Roxy and most people here to submit a kill at night.

[Lime Coke]

[VOTE: Roxy] aubergine

[Lime Coke]

Alright I just read what Dragon is talking about and I didn't even see the part with Wisdom flipping/didn't open the spoiler I just read the part with motobot flipping...well shit.

[Long Con]

The jailkeeper should probably say townreads on their targets (unless they think they got a block instead of a protect) so we can figure out who they were if the JK dies.

Well that's the thing, isn't it? Blocked or protected? Angel or devil? So you can't just make them townreads. So, what, a more advanced coded system, like "these are my townreads and THESE maybe I'm not sure about " kinda thing? Too obvious. Maybe everyone can give their own "here's MY jailkeeper targets!" in an I Am Spartacus kind of way, but that would just tip off to the wolves who it is.

I don't know that there's an easy way for the jailkeeper to communicate their targets to the thread before they die.

(not gonna analyse the first 19 hours of the day. This is a DDL project not a JJJ one. The budget is not as high)

You did great with a limited budget, fo sho!

Okay two nights in a row without a death so like...there has to be a wolf team that just isn't active or doing night actions...right?

Yeah we talked about that.

[Long Con]

Alright I just read what Dragon is talking about and I didn't even see the part with Wisdom flipping/didn't open the spoiler I just read the part with motobot flipping...well shit.

It was a very subtle add-on. But nice to see, of course!

[Thunal33]

Seeing Wisdom flip bad gave me some feels, about how baddies act when they think they are safe.

I have to process all that, and read more to see who looks like they could be teamed with Wisdom as a good place for me to start.

The two people who felt most teamed with Wisdom to me, in retrospect, are Thunal and Dunya. I don't think they're teamed with each other, though.

In my first list, Dunya was prolly town, but I missed her on my second. Thunal I had as lean town first list, and firm town the second.

For overall various reasons I still feel townier re Thunal, but i plan to iso both.

I do think that whoever might have been teamies with Wisdom was fairly familiar with me, since she pocketed me somewhat, and I can be susceptible to that. Plus she was one of the people who responded when DDL asked, "Why is SVS town?"

@Dragon D. Luffy I read that towncore, at least as it related to me, as pocketing. But it could be possible.

Fwiw I had a couple votes on Wisdom near EoD typed up while I was voting for Long Con and almost sent it, but I second guessed myself. I kind of kicked myself for that after the flip, I thought her EoD1 was really wolfy and I considered sheeping your read because I had you as town but I couldn't quite bring myself to get past her worry about being a manipulative person d1. I've actually written in my notes for improving in future games to not trust these "is this a thought mafia would ever have" reads as much as I have been.

I'm saying this so people can find me as town by seeing where my process was at the time.

[Thunal33]

Well that's the thing, isn't it? Blocked or protected? Angel or devil? So you can't just make them townreads. So, what, a more advanced coded system, like "these are my townreads and THESE maybe I'm not sure about " kinda thing? Too obvious. Maybe everyone can give their own "here's MY jailkeeper targets!" in an I Am Spartacus kind of way, but that would just tip off to the wolves who it is.

I don't know that there's an easy way for the jailkeeper to communicate their targets to the thread before they die.

In my last role madness game I remember people posting full lists of what they would have done if they were each role, but the host stepped in and said it wasn't allowed. The reason I said townreads was if the jailkeeper was choosing obvious NK targets because it's much easier to guess the NK than it is to guess the specific mafia that carries the kill.

[Long Con]

11. Long Con:
from him: no mention
GTH: Wolf (no mention from LC is wolfy, even more with a higher post count. The Wisdom side is null, she throws shade a few times but doesn't really pursue)

Fair analysis. I would say I interact less with players I don't really know, until I get a measure of them.

[Long Con]

I will always try to put a secret code into my posts for after I die, if I happen to have the role for it. For future reference.

[Lime Coke]

A bit concerned by Lime Coke's behaviour at EOD2 (lurking, selfpressing onto motobot on top of my head. prolly need to check if he posted about that slot heh)

I noticed it too, so I did some work during the night.

Turns out Lime did vote for Moto very early in the phase... but only in the thread, not in the poll. Here.

I just realized a reason Jack maybe isn't mafia and it might be dumb to clear someone for but this instance it might work.

[VOTE: motobot] aubergine

Just go here fuck it.

So I then tried to track when exactly he voted in the poll. If it was really near the poll locking, on earlier.

As of this post by Scotty, this was the poll:

(not gonna analyse the first 19 hours of the day. This is a DDL project not a JJJ one. The budget is not as high)

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005
1 (Lime)

Lime Coke
2 (Jack, Nanook)

motobot
1 (Wisdom)

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
1 (Long Con)

Thunal33
2 (DDL, Syn)

Wisdom
3 (Thunal, Scotty, SVS)

So Lime hadn't switched his vote in the poll yet. I then tracked the next votes to see how the wagons formed:

scotty: Syn to 1 (Wisdom to 2)
LPP: Syn to 2
Daisy: Long Con to 1
DDL: Lime to 3 (Thunal to 1)
Jibay: Syn to 3
Thunal: Long Con to 2 (Wisdom to 1)
dunya: Thunal to 2
Roxy: Roxy to 1
Long Con: Thunal to 3 (Nanook to 0)

Then Long Con made another tally, where we still don't see the moto vote by Lime:

Spoiler: show

Jackofhearts2005
1 (Lime)

Lime Coke
3 (Jack, Nanook, DDL)

Long Con
2 (Daisy, Thunal)

motobot
1 (Wisdom)

Roxy
1 (Roxy)

Syn
3 (Jibay, LPP, Scotty)

Thunal33
3 (dunya, Syn, Long Con)

Wisdom
1 (SVS)

Finally, these are the final votes.

Thunal: Syn to 4 (Long Con to 1)
LPP: Moto to 2 (Syn to 3)
Thunal: Moto to 4 (Syn to 2)
SVS: Moto to 5 (Wisdom to 0)
[[[Lime: Moto to 3 (Jack to 0)]]]

I don't know where to place Lime's vote exactly. I know it's after LPP, because a little after LPP voted, LC made another of his meme posts about ties, and the count only fits if Lime hasn't voted. But Lime's vote could be before Thunal's, after THunal's, or after SVS's.

Anyway, Wisdom was the one who started the moto wagon. LPP raised it to 2, since Lime failed to vote in the poll. Then Thunal, Lime and SVS put it at 5, in unknown order.

My take from this is that Lime is terrible here, because I feel like the odds of him appearing in the last 15 minutes and making a vote he had forgotten to make is way more likely if there are angry teammates tagging him on discord. It's not a 100% odd, but likely.

LPP and SVS are possible candidates for counter-wagons from mafia, assuming there was even one. Thunal not really, since if was self-pres.

Made the switch because I legitimately forgot to switch my vote in the poll when I made that post...why do people need to read into something that doesn't mean shit?

Also I wasn't lurking EOD either I legit ended up getting on right at that time.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

You did great with a limited budget, fo sho!

You get an honorary mention for all those posts about the ties, because they helped me track Lime's vote.

The award will only be gifted after it ends though. Please provide your town role card at the ticket office to receive it. We are not liable if you don't havce a town role card.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

why do people need to read into something that doesn't mean shit?

That's like the whole reason this game exists for.

[Lime Coke]

The only reason I'm thinking Roxy is she's probably been less active than what I'm used to seeing from her?

Also for some reason I can't shake the scumread idea from reading her.

[Lime Coke]

[VOTE: Scotty] aubergine

Meh

[Lime Coke]

Yeah fuck it, doesn't feel like that bad of a vote actually.

[Long Con]

I also made another big post (yes, I was gambling really hard on not dying N2. Also I was bored).

You all needed it, so I'm coming down with it.

EVERYONE'S INTERACTIONS WITH WISDOM

Spoiler: show

(without quotes, because again, the JJJ-level budget is no longer available)

First of all, the wolf herself:

- Wisdom
D1: says I'm town when I accuse her. Cases Syn and votes him. Names me, Lime and Thunal as main town reads, and Syn/Long Com as main wolves. Continues to defend me and Thunal. Votes falcon for no reason. Defends herself against SVS multiple times.

Posts a reads list: me and Thunal main town reads, Lime not sure anymore, dunya lean town, Syn neutral, falcon bad, inactives bad.

Says Lime being nice to dunya is NAI. Leans town on Scotty. Says she would yeet Roxy or falcon over Scotty. Announces SVS is a townread. Agrees with her negative take on falcon. Gets cold feet on falcon wagon. But mentions she thinks it's pure. Questions Jack on his town read of Long Con and says she is considering voting there.

Posts another reads list. Main townies are me, SVS and Thunal, main wolves are falcon, LC/LC and moto. Tries to start a flash wagon on DADV, and votes moto. States she would feel bad about misyeeting Lime.

D2: low activity, stating RL reasons. Mostly self-defense. Throws shade on Moto again. Asks dunya for a daisy read. Makes a weak town read of Roxy. Votes moto again. When questioned by Thunal on Lime, says she's null on him. "I had him as town but I dunno, I want more on him". LPP is "town for bad reasons". Arrives right as the day ends, says she is not moving to Thunal after the vote locked.

Next, all the possible teammate candidates. I'll be listing how each person talked about/with Wisdom, then being up a summary of what Wisdom said about them. Finally, I'll provided a GTH read of them, considering only they relationship with Wisdom. GTH means either town or mafia, no null reads allowed.

1- SVS
from her: Calls wisdom manipulative on D0 and again D1. Argues with her. Ends up voting falcon. D2 brings it up again and votes her after naming her among a few options. Suspects dunya for defending wisdom. Continues to attack Wisdom. Is the last one to drop her wagon when it's clear it won't take off.
GTH: town (solid casing and pursuit from SVS. Lots of defenses from Wisdom, seems like pocketing. Since she also defends me and I know that's pocketing, it could be a pattern)

2 - dunya:
from her: D1:asks Wisdom some questions. Agrees with a post from SVS suspecting her. Discusses reads with Wisdom a few times. Says Lime isn't wolf with Wisdom or Roxy. Is friendly about her emotions. Says Lime is wishy-washy on Wisdom.
D2: Attacks a post from Thunal suspecting Wisdom, while also speculating they could be w/w. Discusses more cases with Wisdom. Later soft defends wisdom against Thunal. Replies to a post from Wisdom asking who is responsible for he moto yeet, and accuses Thunal 1st and Lime 2nd.
GTH: wolf (losts of posts that could be friendly Wolf banter, dunya throws some shade but not strongly and prioritizes other people. Also makes some defenses. Wisdom leans town on her too.)

3. jibay:
from him: no mention
from Wisdom: no mention. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: wolf (no mention is wolfy, though low post count kind of explains it on his side)

4. nanook
from him: calls wisdom town early, doesn't have a reason. Pushes other wagons
from Wisdom: no mention. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: wolf (calling a teammate town early is ballsy, but the lack of mentions afterwards even when inquired by other people is wolfy. No mention from Wisdom is wolfy)

5. roxy
from her: builds a case early, mentions she suspects her a few times, votes her in the end of D1. mentions she still want to vote wisdom D2, though ends up voting herself.
from Wisdom: soft town read once. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: town (good D1 from Roxy. D2 isn't great but it seemed like a personal thing. Low mention from Wisdom is wolfy though.)

6. daisy
from her: expresses doubt about the wisdom wagon early D2 in a big post, but says she will double check. Later on mentions her again in another big post, leaning mafia
from Wisdom: interacts, but doesn't talk of her. Appears neutral on reads lists.
GTH: wolf (easy for Daisy to put wisdom suspicions in the middle of big posts, but not vote there. Low mentions from Wisdom is wolfy.)

7. lime
from him: soft defense of wisdom D1, implying he considered yeeting her but explaining why he won't. Never mentions her again.
from Wisdom: all over the place. Initially defends, then flips all the way to a main suspect, then later calls him null and doesn't acknowledge ving him as a main suspect before.
GTH: wolf (soft defense by Lime D1 and lack of mention on D2. Wisdom could be setting a misyeet on him, but she is never quite focusing on him for that)

8. LPP:
from him: asks Wisdom about her opinion. Promises a few times to other people he will provide a wisdom reason eventually. Never does.
from Wisdom: little mention, though he was inactive D1 when she was active. One soft town post.
GTH: wolf (LPP seems aware of her but never actually commiting to a read, which is wolfy. Wisdom didn't quite have the timing to talk about him so her side is null)

9. Syn
from him: states he doesn't want wisdom killed D1, no explanation. Repeats D2, again no explanation
GTH: town (Syn a bit too ballsy for teammates. The Wisdom side is tricky, she cases him earlier then just forgets about him)

10. Jack
from him: Makes GTH read that I'm a wolf with Wisdom. Changes his mind a while later. Agrees with a post from SVS casing Wisdom. Explains his LC town read to Wisdom when questioned. Later on states that he disagrees with people's defense of Wisdom, though he is willing to wait another day to vote. Says he has na "uninspired" scum read on her.
GTH: town (not strong on it, but Jack is suspecting her from diferente angles and bringing it up again. She doesn't go after Jack much though, which is wolfy)

11. Long Con:
from him: no mention
GTH: Wolf (no mention from LC is wolfy, even more with a higher post count. The Wisdom side is null, she throws shade a few times but doesn't really pursue)

12. thunal:
from her: D1: Earlier calls her town, comparing to her own previous xperiences being suspected. Later on is surprised Wisdom is townreading her, discusses reads with her.
D2: suspects Wisdom for her comment on falcon. Says she is aware she looks w/w with Wisdom but states her opinion has changed. Says Scotty is towny for agreeing on Wisdom. Says Wisdom is her 2nd main suspect (Lime is 1st) and votes Lime. Questions nanook on his Wisdom townread. Says she is not sure on Wisdom anymore. Changes her mind on Lime and moves to Wisdom. Makes an ISO of Wisdom and decides she changed her mind on her too. Votes Long Con. Speculates on her again, saying she could be either alignment.
GTH: town (Thunal's day 1 is bad, day 2 is better, but the main thing is that she brings a lot of attention to Wisdom, often negative. Wisdom's side could be pocketing or maybe she threw a scummate in the mix)

13. Scotty:
from him: D1: early joke vote on Wisdom. Agrees with me on a Wisdom suspicion. Agrees with Wisdom on a town DDL read. Builds a case against her. Argues about it with Thunal. Continues to mention her as a suspect. Mindmelds with SVS on that. Implies Wisdom could be 3P. Later says Wisdom's posts feel good, but suspects her lack of mention of him. Then says he keeps suspecting her, though he's aware he's voting with her elsewhere.
D2: says Wisdom could have TMI for trying a flash wagon. Says she and Thunal could be w/w. Continues to case her. Accepts Wisdom's meta defense. Brings up the flash wagon again. Votes Wisdom. Then finds a post from Wisdom that he believes absolves her, and unvotes. Later says he hasn't made his mind on her yet. Then posts a tier list with Wisdom as one of the main suspects. Votes her again. Questions Nanook's defense of her. Suspects other people for townreading her with no explanation. Before leaving lists her among a list of possible votes. Votes Syn.
GTH: town (Scotty is not as sure as SVS, but cases her a lot and keeps bringing up attention to her. From Wisdom there are some townreads, though not as involved as me/SVS/Thunal, so that side is null.)

GTH results:

town:

DDL ( )
SVS
Scotty
Thunal
Syn
Roxy
Jack

mafia:

Lime
nanook
dunya
LPP
Jibay
daisy
Long Con

So obviously there are no 7 wolves, but I tried to ignore setup proportion when picking the reads, to capture what I really feel. This does mean I don't intend to touch those people in the Town list, unless someone can convince me to change my mind on those interactions.

There are some weirdnessess here too, like Syn getting a town read for defending Wisdom and nanook not getting it after defending one, but feeling plays a role here. I think one w/w defense is feasible, and Nanook is the kind of troll who might do it. Two defenses on different days is VERY bold, and I'm not sure if Syn would do it.

Daisy looks bad-ish in this list, but otherwise I've been feeling her pretty town. I kind of liked Long Con in D2 too.

Anyway, I really want to kill Lime here. I've been suspecting him for a while, his Day 2 is the worst ever and he doesn't look great interacting with our known flipped wolf.

Otherwise I'd be ok with yeeting Nanook, dunya, LPP or Jibay.

[VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine

I'm pretty okay with this. Still unsure about Roxy. She knows about distancing from a teammate.

[Long Con]

Yeah fuck it, doesn't feel like that bad of a vote actually.

Is that mostly feels-based?

[Lime Coke]

Yeah fuck it, doesn't feel like that bad of a vote actually.

Is that mostly feels-based?

100%