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https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... Hydra-Game the closest thing I have to a recent scum game is this where I was specifically Wanda.
So you have 'mechs' for Falcon wolf and said it so late? Really?Cape90 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:16 amI'm looking at this and I think I have mech that literally confirms falcon as a very likely wolf. If not, that would be just absolutely wild. Thanks for outing that ScottyScotty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 8:36 pmMy role is mostly useless. Mostly.
But it’s not what my role does more than what I know in the game.
So I guess now’s as good a time as any at the 24 hour mark:
-I targeted LC on N2 with my ability and it was blocked. But wouldn’t ya know it, that still apparently triggered LC’s ‘A Trustworthy Friend.’ So I’ve been talking with him since the start of
D3. Since it wasn’t an action, we weren’t blocked when that happened. So that’s cool.
LC has been busy this game, and I owe all this info to him to pass on as the provincial Town Crier:
—————————————
He did in fact take the ‘Block every night’ and the ‘redirect’ ability. He blocked Nutella N1, and you’ll find that he left little breadcrumbs in little codes saying exactly that. Whether or not that was the
block or Thunal protected me, we don’t know. Could’ve been both.
N2 he blocked Wilgy.
N3 he inexplicably didn’t send in his action.
N4 he blocked Michelle, who has confirmed being blocked.
But the main thing- the thing he died for- was targeting falcon and redirecting falcon to target DM instead.
Falcon is confirmed wolf.
I’ve taken my time posting this in order to observe who has been softly defending falcon in a neutral setting.
Cape came out with pretty suspicious post of townreading falcon for no earthly reason but then focused his big whale eye on falcon/porscha and settling on falcon. So that’s a great look, as he started that wagon and falcon was in no danger.
Sprityo has come out committed to laying down some reads today. He’s fighting for his life and I fully believe he’s a 3p.
Especially after being the 2nd on falcon in a low-voting first half of the day. His action failed N2 like the rest of us, when he supposedly targeted falcon. So this push makes sense. It doesn’t make any sense if he is mafia with falcon.
Pyxxy is a troublesome case. I like that he followed through with voting for falcon, but I’m having my reservations.
I admit we had an ice cream social on D2 and had some fun times doing behind the scenes mech talk, and his tone felt so genuine but here I feel like all of that comes to a screeching halt with this confessed silencing mech. I just can’t come to terms with this being a town thing. I unfortunately feel like the only two options are:
1) He was affected by an unknown, probably mafia-aligned
ability that wasn’t an action, therefore not blocked for N2, or
2) He was just caught in a lie.
—————————————
So what does this all boil down to, Scotty?
We [VOTE: Falcon] aubergine today. Take out a wolf. NOT sprityo today @☆Princess Abigail☆.
We see if sprityo can get another target and maybe address that
tomorrow with more info. I really don’t feel like even if he’s some form of nefarious wolf-siding role that we can lose tonight by letting him live another day. If he is, I’ll take that loss for the team. But I want to give him a bit of leeway.
********************
Feel free to look at the first 24 hours of the day with the lens that falcon is bad, and see if anyone sticks out. Besides falcon, of course, who is acting plenty wolfy today on his own lol
If anyone has any questions, I’ll be in my trailer.
Like Porscha acted so offended when my solve today was me solving between her and falcon
Statistic and feelings are 2 different concepts.
With such large wagons on day 3/4 and we know for a fact that falcon is wolf, who also has been off wagon all game, what are the odds that the last wolf is also not on wagon (most of the game)? Aka Porscha and Wilgy. I think it’s more likely that wolves have had a hand in recent polls to keep up appearances.Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:56 amStatistic and feelings are 2 different concepts.
Can you explain more about the vote analysis?
I genuinely no longer believe that you don't know what's going on this much
Last time I heard this from you you were very wrong and town
Omg it's the thing I've been saying all phase just with more numbersDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 12:26 pm Just thinking about timeline
Sprit has had 4 opportunities to target and we've got 9 left
thinking along the lines of 3 or 2 remaining wolves, anything else seems unreasonable unless we missed something critical.
1. If Sprit is an arsonist, and triggers we'll be left with 4 after both trigger + yeet. 3 if there's still a nk.
Depending on the win condition we can just lose here to both 3p and wolves if there are 2 remaining after falcon.
2. If Sprit is lying about just targets, Sprit could potentially be removed from the game this cycle.
Leaving us with 7, 6 if there's a nk. Resulting in one of:
7:2, 6:2
7:1, 6:1
3. If Sprit isn't lying about anything, Sprit doesn't leave after this cycle and we are at
8:2, 7:2
8:1, 7:1
4. Lastly we opt to remove sprit
8:3, 7:3
8:2, 7:2
Then we remove Falc
7:2, 6:2, 5:2
7:1, 6:1, 5:1
So ultimately best case scenario Sprit just isn't lying, however worst case scenario can result in a loss if we don't remove this cycle.
I don't think we play to that, and removing falcon now is optimal. This would also cover the nightmare scenario of there being 4 wolves left, but that seems like it'd be absolutely bonkers.
I guess I'm just worried about losing to an unknowable 3p when we don't have to. If we remove Sprit now we are still +1 again assuming not 4. I assume we'll not dodge NKs with our protectives gone so we'll likely always be in the rightmost column ratio.
tl:dr removing sprit now is still the safest assuming there's not 4 wolves or another multi kill. It's probably unnecessary until we reassess tomorrow UNLESS everything has gone correct for sprit.
Hey I believed you, just needed to do the work myself.☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 1:11 pmOmg it's the thing I've been saying all phase just with more numbersDrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 12:26 pm Just thinking about timeline
Sprit has had 4 opportunities to target and we've got 9 left
thinking along the lines of 3 or 2 remaining wolves, anything else seems unreasonable unless we missed something critical.
1. If Sprit is an arsonist, and triggers we'll be left with 4 after both trigger + yeet. 3 if there's still a nk.
Depending on the win condition we can just lose here to both 3p and wolves if there are 2 remaining after falcon.
2. If Sprit is lying about just targets, Sprit could potentially be removed from the game this cycle.
Leaving us with 7, 6 if there's a nk. Resulting in one of:
7:2, 6:2
7:1, 6:1
3. If Sprit isn't lying about anything, Sprit doesn't leave after this cycle and we are at
8:2, 7:2
8:1, 7:1
4. Lastly we opt to remove sprit
8:3, 7:3
8:2, 7:2
Then we remove Falc
7:2, 6:2, 5:2
7:1, 6:1, 5:1
So ultimately best case scenario Sprit just isn't lying, however worst case scenario can result in a loss if we don't remove this cycle.
I don't think we play to that, and removing falcon now is optimal. This would also cover the nightmare scenario of there being 4 wolves left, but that seems like it'd be absolutely bonkers.
I guess I'm just worried about losing to an unknowable 3p when we don't have to. If we remove Sprit now we are still +1 again assuming not 4. I assume we'll not dodge NKs with our protectives gone so we'll likely always be in the rightmost column ratio.
tl:dr removing sprit now is still the safest assuming there's not 4 wolves or another multi kill. It's probably unnecessary until we reassess tomorrow UNLESS everything has gone correct for sprit.
So it's bad for a POE to be too large but to have a narrow focus for another day is really that bad? Also Porscha is all like "oh you aren't solving any other slots" which isn't true, I just have better reasons to trust other slots over both her and falcon as i have literally expressed in my vote on Porscha.
Thanks, I’ll read this when I get off workCape90 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:48 amhttps://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... Hydra-Game the closest thing I have to a recent scum game is this where I was specifically Wanda.
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/44010 here is a regular game where I was scum that's probably easier to read but is much further back in time
So to play devils advocate here:DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 12:26 pm Just thinking about timeline
Sprit has had 4 opportunities to target and we've got 9 left
thinking along the lines of 3 or 2 remaining wolves, anything else seems unreasonable unless we missed something critical.
1. If Sprit is an arsonist, and triggers we'll be left with 4 after both trigger + yeet. 3 if there's still a nk.
Depending on the win condition we can just lose here to both 3p and wolves if there are 2 remaining after falcon.
2. If Sprit is lying about just targets, Sprit could potentially be removed from the game this cycle.
Leaving us with 7, 6 if there's a nk. Resulting in one of:
7:2, 6:2
7:1, 6:1
3. If Sprit isn't lying about anything, Sprit doesn't leave after this cycle and we are at
8:2, 7:2
8:1, 7:1
4. Lastly we opt to remove sprit
8:3, 7:3
8:2, 7:2
Then we remove Falc
7:2, 6:2, 5:2
7:1, 6:1, 5:1
So ultimately best case scenario Sprit just isn't lying, however worst case scenario can result in a loss if we don't remove this cycle.
I don't think we play to that, and removing falcon now is optimal. This would also cover the nightmare scenario of there being 4 wolves left, but that seems like it'd be absolutely bonkers.
I guess I'm just worried about losing to an unknowable 3p when we don't have to. If we remove Sprit now we are still +1 again assuming not 4. I assume we'll not dodge NKs with our protectives gone so we'll likely always be in the rightmost column ratio.
tl:dr removing sprit now is still the safest assuming there's not 4 wolves or another multi kill. It's probably unnecessary until we reassess tomorrow UNLESS everything has gone correct for sprit.
Sorry, meant bumping cape down on my POEScotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:21 pm I don’t think I learned anything amazong from cape’s MU wolf games. That hydra one was not conclusive, but I guess if there’s any takeaways from what I read in the second one:
-that game seemed cleaner than what we’re seeing in cape here. The cape here is making some baffling leaps and mech mistakes that stand out. Would cape continue to make such baffling mistakes?
-he bussed his partner and it didn’t work out, and he regretted it. This was last month.
The bussing is inconclusive. Nutella is a bad example, as mafia wanted her dead and would want a busser for cred.
I do feel like it’s still a point in his favor that he boxes his poe into Porscha/falcon and voted for falcon before I outed my info. This is a risky play if falcon is his last partner. This would also track for a town cape that seemingly has info on a bad falcon from his vague postal pigeon
Bumping cape down.
Revisiting Michelle.
more like hard stuck plat in rivals My hope is that flipping falcon will give us some mech info to shed some light on your silence.pyxxy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:32 pm I'm pretty conflicted
I trust mech and math and Wilgy's post is pretty clear math
however I think Scotty's math about us having 1 more night makes sense
so we kill Falcon and come back tomorrow
I don't trust Abby
I think Porscha is town now based on Falcon's iso
I’m curious what your opinion on Michelle is when you get around to it, hopefully before EODScotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:22 pmSorry, meant bumping cape down on my POEScotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:21 pm I don’t think I learned anything amazong from cape’s MU wolf games. That hydra one was not conclusive, but I guess if there’s any takeaways from what I read in the second one:
-that game seemed cleaner than what we’re seeing in cape here. The cape here is making some baffling leaps and mech mistakes that stand out. Would cape continue to make such baffling mistakes?
-he bussed his partner and it didn’t work out, and he regretted it. This was last month.
The bussing is inconclusive. Nutella is a bad example, as mafia wanted her dead and would want a busser for cred.
I do feel like it’s still a point in his favor that he boxes his poe into Porscha/falcon and voted for falcon before I outed my info. This is a risky play if falcon is his last partner. This would also track for a town cape that seemingly has info on a bad falcon from his vague postal pigeon
Bumping cape down.
Revisiting Michelle.
Currently still leaning pyxxy >>> Porscha/michelle >>> cape
As the solve
So there’s this terrifying role from Fallout New Vegas:
What’s terrifying is that it matches a few things that sprityo has claimed:Demo Man (Arsonist)
During each night phase, you may elect to either mark, detonate, or clean. If you choose to mark, you will select any player. That player will be marked. Your marks can be prevented by blocking abilities. If you choose to detonate, all living players who have been marked will be exploded (killed). This may not be prevented by any means other than commuting (your detonation cannot be blocked or protected). You may choose to detonate multiple times during the game. If you choose to clean, you will select a previously marked player. That player will no longer be marked.
Separately, once during the game during any night phase, you may elect to commute. You will be immune to all night actions targeted upon you during that phase.
To win the game, you must be the sole survivor (or reach 1:1 parity with the civilians). If you reach 1:1 parity with the mafia, any remaining mechanics will dictate a winner. If the remaining mechanics result in a draw, you will be the winner.
that'd be sick nglScotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:49 pmMy hope is that flipping falcon will give us some mech info to shed some light on your silence.pyxxy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:32 pm I'm pretty conflicted
I trust mech and math and Wilgy's post is pretty clear math
however I think Scotty's math about us having 1 more night makes sense
so we kill Falcon and come back tomorrow
I don't trust Abby
I think Porscha is town now based on Falcon's iso
this makes me 10% less certain in my vote nglScotty wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 6:39 pmSo there’s this terrifying role from Fallout New Vegas:What’s terrifying is that it matches a few things that sprityo has claimed:Demo Man (Arsonist)
During each night phase, you may elect to either mark, detonate, or clean. If you choose to mark, you will select any player. That player will be marked. Your marks can be prevented by blocking abilities. If you choose to detonate, all living players who have been marked will be exploded (killed). This may not be prevented by any means other than commuting (your detonation cannot be blocked or protected). You may choose to detonate multiple times during the game. If you choose to clean, you will select a previously marked player. That player will no longer be marked.
Separately, once during the game during any night phase, you may elect to commute. You will be immune to all night actions targeted upon you during that phase.
To win the game, you must be the sole survivor (or reach 1:1 parity with the civilians). If you reach 1:1 parity with the mafia, any remaining mechanics will dictate a winner. If the remaining mechanics result in a draw, you will be the winner.
-marking
-‘commuting’ is a lot like ‘bullet proof vest’
Though devils advocate, all of Epi’s devised roles thus far I don’t feel like have been direct rips from other games. More like homages.
But to answer your question, this was a possible role in a game this past year
I wouldn’t look to that as an indicator.
