TOWN WINS Danganronpa 3: Future Mafia

[gims]

if its three, it can maybe be jack AND lc. hence lc pushing mac, instead of someone who could be scum.

[MacDougall]

if its three, it can maybe be jack AND lc. hence lc pushing mac, instead of someone who could be scum.

yup we are aligned

[Long Con]

I could/will vote for:

gims
Radish
Mac

I think 3 baddies max bc of the 3P role and the town had a f'n stump that is the most useless town role ever written. Whoever dreamed that up had zero imagination.

I feel like Mac/Radishes are almost a....what do you call it? Difference check? One is scum and the other is town.

Gims is wolfy with Radishes, seeming very unwilling to vote there. That was the main reason I voted Radishes, because of Gims super not wanting Radishes dead, not because of anything Radishes actually did or said beyond the quadcomboposts.

@Master Radishes Jack trying to put us in a difference check here is mafia agenda to try to keep miselims in front of Falcon who was being too passive.

Difference check is the most overused and misused term in contemporary Mafia so for that alone I'm happy to kill him.

I don't really get why you and I are a different check anyway. We've not interacted much.

As I say I'll look tomorrow.

The difference check thing is the only compelling evidence here. Articles 1 thru 3 look like standard distancing.

Following a rando vote on you, on a go-nowhere non-wagon, on the day he gets voted out as Mafia, is actually the literal example they give in the Distancing Textbook.

You voting me and the mafia taking a queue to vote me at the opportune moment when the momentum towards my death is at its apex is not how to distance. It's how to kill. Do you think wolf Falcon genuinely wants wolf Mac dead?

That's how bussing works. Why are you trying to make it seem ludicrous when you just described a common scenario?

[Long Con]

Part of me feels like LCs sus of me is somewhat genuine too. I can see a world in which he's sort of detached in a way where my still being alive and now suddenly posting a lot is just adding to suspicion he'd already vocalised and hasn't quite recognised yet that wolf Falcon sort of spewed me town by jumping on his suspicion.

That would be more likely to me than wolf Long Con doing this.

There's no falcon post that spews you Town, every example you gave look like regular distancing.

Falcon voted me after you and left it there all day. His and your vote put me in a situation where if the town were so compelled I'd be dead. Falcon didn't distance if I'm Mafia he bussed. And bussing me the way he did there is game losing. Why would Falcon my wolf teammate think the objective wolf wincon there is to bus me and try to carry himself?

Nonsense.

I would absolutely do that. It's a win-win for falcon if you ever die, whether it be that day or a later day, he can then reference this and get easy cred, possible townlock situation.

[Long Con]

Think past level 1 and imagine a world where Falcon and I are mafia IN THIS GAME.

How does both of our day 3 play make sense? Knowing what you know about how both of us play?

First and foremost I have zero need to bus him. And to do so in a blunt way where I've established no credibility decreases my wincon versus just continuing to vote MR. I can easily get MR over, maybe even Roxy if I want to flip to hard siding with MR. I could probably even get you over. But instead of any of those options I lazily vote out my wolf teammate? Cmon.

And then Falcon, the passive team member... decides to jump on me after ostensibly town LC votes me, putting me in danger of elimination too?

This makes zero sense as mafia agenda for me and you'd have to wilfully ignore everything you know about me to make argument to the contrary.

IN THIS GAME you already have gims absolutely convinced that you are Town, as soon as falcon flipped, Mac and Jack are just not even conceivable as possible baddies.

See, the scenario I'm seeing is that you bussed your teammate at an opportune time, in an optimal way, and have achieved the standard desired credibility results one receives for this sacrifice... and yet, you're saying to my face that it makes zero sense.

This is some absolute Trumpian-level 1984 crap and I almost feel insulted that you would try to present it as terrible, inconceivable play to make while you literally are publicly reaping the rewards.

[VOTE: mac] aubergine

[Long Con]

I understand the jack posts look bad. I'm not fighting this flip. but imo its really just LC.

@Long Con I think your interest would make more sense to be in debating your alignment with gims than mine with me.

I have no interest in doing that.

[Long Con]

roxy still just hardcore tunneled on radishes is somewhat earnestly towny

Probably

Spoiler: show

but in a 3 wolf world I think she still fits

Does anything particularly rule out the 3 wolf world?

And/or in that world does LC/Jack not make sense either?

I think it's probably 3. Others have raised the idea of 2 so I'll acknowledge it as a possibility.

Could be LC, sure.

We should probably assume 3. Who was it that said it has to be 2 because if it were 3 we'd have already lost... or something? I think it might have been situationally based on the falcon elimination, like that many Wolves would have rallied and saved him, maybe? I don't think the logic was sound there.

[MacDougall]

Think past level 1 and imagine a world where Falcon and I are mafia IN THIS GAME.

How does both of our day 3 play make sense? Knowing what you know about how both of us play?

First and foremost I have zero need to bus him. And to do so in a blunt way where I've established no credibility decreases my wincon versus just continuing to vote MR. I can easily get MR over, maybe even Roxy if I want to flip to hard siding with MR. I could probably even get you over. But instead of any of those options I lazily vote out my wolf teammate? Cmon.

And then Falcon, the passive team member... decides to jump on me after ostensibly town LC votes me, putting me in danger of elimination too?

This makes zero sense as mafia agenda for me and you'd have to wilfully ignore everything you know about me to make argument to the contrary.

IN THIS GAME you already have gims absolutely convinced that you are Town, as soon as falcon flipped, Mac and Jack are just not even conceivable as possible baddies.

See, the scenario I'm seeing is that you bussed your teammate at an opportune time, in an optimal way, and have achieved the standard desired credibility results one receives for this sacrifice... and yet, you're saying to my face that it makes zero sense.

This is some absolute Trumpian-level 1984 crap and I almost feel insulted that you would try to present it as terrible, inconceivable play to make while you literally are publicly reaping the rewards.

[VOTE: mac] aubergine

All I can say is it's nonsense. You're essentially saying i made my game harder by orders of magnitude just to explain the unlikely. That is quite literally your argument. "Mac could have done this so he did."

[MacDougall]

It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.

[Long Con]

It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.

Tell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?

It depends somewhat on how the fallout of that MR lynch comes around. But there'd be three voices in the thread to direct opinion, which would probably be pretty strong.

Wait, no. I just looked. There are six players left. That would have been the final elimination of the game; Mafia would have reached parity after the nightkill. Or it's a 2-person Mafia team and falcon's teammate would a) not be so disposed to bus and b) be scrambling to get a handle on several future yeets as a solo baddie.

If it's a three-Wolf team then everyone who voted falcon must be Town, because a Town yeet would have resulted in Mafia victory.

If it's a two-Wolf team then bussing is possible but a harder road to travel, albeit with an advantage.

Again, I have had a few drinks. Is my assessment accurate or did I miss some key factors?

[MacDougall]

It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.

Tell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?

It depends somewhat on how the fallout of that MR lynch comes around. But there'd be three voices in the thread to direct opinion, which would probably be pretty strong.

Wait, no. I just looked. There are six players left. That would have been the final elimination of the game; Mafia would have reached parity after the nightkill. Or it's a 2-person Mafia team and falcon's teammate would a) not be so disposed to bus and b) be scrambling to get a handle on several future yeets as a solo baddie.

If it's a three-Wolf team then everyone who voted falcon must be Town, because a Town yeet would have resulted in Mafia victory.

If it's a two-Wolf team then bussing is possible but a harder road to travel, albeit with an advantage.

Again, I have had a few drinks. Is my assessment accurate or did I miss some key factors?

Yes i think we are either in LC + Jack or just Jack.

[Long Con]

Why does that post make me a Wolf? I'm disappointed in your response.

[MacDougall]

Why does that post make me a Wolf? I'm disappointed in your response.

I didn't say that post made you a wolf. I already had that opinion.

[Long Con]

Why does that post make me a Wolf? I'm disappointed in your response.

I didn't say that post made you a wolf. I already had that opinion.

Ok but I'm disappointed because you treated the post like a presentation piece to the rest of the thread and not a conversation with Long Con. I asked a question at the end that is kind of important to the understanding of where we stand in this game and I want to know if I analyzed the situation correctly because I'm drunk and I may be way off-base, but you treated it like I was making a statement at my trial and you're addressing the jury.

[Long Con]

And me being right or wrong about this directly affects whether I suspect you or you are exonerated in my opinion. So I guess if you've written me off that harshly already that me developing an opinion of you doesn't even matter anymore, then I'll just chill over here.

[Long Con]

Anyways, bedtime. Love ya Mac, you are always the man.

[gims]

Tell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?

its parity

[gims]

notice we're 6 people

if there were 3 mafia alive, they could've voted together and if town didnt vote together they'd just win

they could crossvote, that could be a play, but it isn't the smartest way to deal with ELO imo

[Master Radishes]

Let's not forget wolves are often cautious and thinking of their image in a worst case scenario. They may have not wanted to stack to save falcon because it felt like momentum was not on their side and didn't want to risk missing in a tie situation or something. Or maybe one of them just wasn't going to be around in the final minutes.

[Master Radishes]

I won't yet dismiss the idea of Mac being mafia. And I don't think falcon's iso spews him as clear as he thinks it does or wants it to.

But he's not wrong that it'd be illogical for him to bus falcon there. He had all the room in the world to stick with voting me and at the very least create a tie. He could've just done his Mac thing of loudly and repeatedly flooding the thread with anti MR content and keeping momentum on me.

[MacDougall]

I won't yet dismiss the idea of Mac being mafia. And I don't think falcon's iso spews him as clear as he thinks it does or wants it to.

But he's not wrong that it'd be illogical for him to bus falcon there. He had all the room in the world to stick with voting me and at the very least create a tie. He could've just done his Mac thing of loudly and repeatedly flooding the thread with anti MR content and keeping momentum on me.

Okay then dismiss the idea.

[MacDougall]

Why does that post make me a Wolf? I'm disappointed in your response.

I didn't say that post made you a wolf. I already had that opinion.

Ok but I'm disappointed because you treated the post like a presentation piece to the rest of the thread and not a conversation with Long Con. I asked a question at the end that is kind of important to the understanding of where we stand in this game and I want to know if I analyzed the situation correctly because I'm drunk and I may be way off-base, but you treated it like I was making a statement at my trial and you're addressing the jury.

bruh imma be so fr

I was busy af and couldn't be fucked giving a more comprehensive answer.

[Roxy]

moved my vote bc I like ties esp when I'm not 100% on my vibe.

Though I do suspect both LC and Mac I suspected Mac longer so that's where I went.

[Master Radishes]

Not going to quote anything because it would just be a whole lot of 'may or may not be a scummy interaction' but I think it's fair to summarise falcon/LC association as perfectly plausible. They have a couple of soft interactions, not much more than that.

I suppose the way they both switched to Wilgy at EoD2, and then both went for Mac in D3, is a bit unusual? Or at least, conventionally wolves don't like to follow each other too much. But it's not impossible - moving off a stale wagon, mine, and onto Wilgy shows towny 'reevaluation', and if they have a chance to get a player like Mac pushed out they'd likely take it, since momentum briefly swung that way.


So like...yeah, LC can easily be with Falcon. It's no guarantee, but I'd be willing to vote there if gims insists. Still leaning towards Jack as more conventionally 'wolfy' though.

[Long Con]

It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.

Tell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?

It depends somewhat on how the fallout of that MR lynch comes around. But there'd be three voices in the thread to direct opinion, which would probably be pretty strong.

Wait, no. I just looked. There are six players left. That would have been the final elimination of the game; Mafia would have reached parity after the nightkill. Or it's a 2-person Mafia team and falcon's teammate would a) not be so disposed to bus and b) be scrambling to get a handle on several future yeets as a solo baddie.

If it's a three-Wolf team then everyone who voted falcon must be Town, because a Town yeet would have resulted in Mafia victory.

If it's a two-Wolf team then bussing is possible but a harder road to travel, albeit with an advantage.

Again, I have had a few drinks. Is my assessment accurate or did I miss some key factors?

Yes i think we are either in LC + Jack or just Jack.

You think Jack wouldn't play for the easier win, like you? How can he be a Wolf when he voted out falcon?

[Long Con]

So like...yeah, LC can easily be with Falcon. It's no guarantee, but I'd be willing to vote there if gims insists. Still leaning towards Jack as more conventionally 'wolfy' though.

Same question, why would Jack vote falcon when keeping him alive gets the win?

Or does one of these Jack suspecters KNOW its a two Wolf team?

[Master Radishes]

The fact that gims, Mac, and I all seem to be on more or less the same page after hitting a wolf feels good.

Spoiler: show

The fact that LC and Roxy, who have both probably played with Mac far more than I have, don't agree feels...less good.

[Master Radishes]

So like...yeah, LC can easily be with Falcon. It's no guarantee, but I'd be willing to vote there if gims insists. Still leaning towards Jack as more conventionally 'wolfy' though.

Same question, why would Jack vote falcon when keeping him alive gets the win?

Or does one of these Jack suspecters KNOW its a two Wolf team?

I'd have to go check the logs on how it all unfolded in real time, but perception is a funny thing when you're wolfing. It may not have seemed like 'if we just keep falcon alive we'll win' at the time. Votes change very last minute sometimes, and if it doesn't work perfectly (like they end up in a tie and lose the coinflip) they may worry they'd get 'caught out' openwolfing and end up slaughtered today instead. Safer to distance and try again the next phase.

[Master Radishes]

Also, was everyone present at EoD to be able to change their votes if need be? Stacking only works if all wolves are present and ready to go.

[Long Con]

Yes, these scenarios have all assumed optimal play, but mistakes and unavailability are both real.

[Long Con]

From memory, neither Mac nor Jack were around during the last few hours of the day. I was not there at all until after the poll closed, but I did reread the four (?) players present until the day ended. Lots of vote movement, and several players missing from the thread.

[gims]

LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.

also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.

[Long Con]

LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.

also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.

We just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.

I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.

[Long Con]

Like, I know I'm probably the king of tinfoil, and I can't think of another player on the site that I tinfoil more than Mac or Jack. Maybe Wilgy, actually. I know both these guys have Wolf games that are indistinguishable from their Town games; they've both earned the paranoia from me repeatedly.

I wish that they had both been present at the end of the day, and still kept their votes where they were.

I also acknowledge that, as Wolves, they are each likely to be running the numbers, and to realize that a Town elimination is Game Over yesterday. So then they both vote Wolves and clock out early? That's not very believable assuming optimum play.

All it takes is "damn I thought I'd be back well before the poll ended but life got in the way and/or I just forgot" and it looks to me like something very possible.

[gims]

excellent

our common denominator is jack, then

[gims]

there's something silly going on if the game is jack and mac though

if its jack and mac and falcon, they have all avoided auto winning the game to cross vote and peace out on a partner. yes it could be a play, but it feels really counterintuitive to me that scum team would behave this way. unfortunately I have grown to also townread the people outside of that wagon, so I'm in a pickle where maybe *forgetting* was a thing. for instance, if they vote for master radishes, they win? because one townie at least would be voting them. like. you need ONE townie to vote with you, because town votes were scattered.

[gims]

[VOTE: jack] aubergine

I suppose jack could flip today. not very confident about it, but its the common denominator between LC and mac, and they are probably not s^s, and maybe they're wrong about each other, which I think makes jack a good flip.

[Long Con]

there's something silly going on if the game is jack and mac though

if its jack and mac and falcon, they have all avoided auto winning the game to cross vote and peace out on a partner. yes it could be a play, but it feels really counterintuitive to me that scum team would behave this way. unfortunately I have grown to also townread the people outside of that wagon, so I'm in a pickle where maybe *forgetting* was a thing. for instance, if they vote for master radishes, they win? because one townie at least would be voting them. like. you need ONE townie to vote with you, because town votes were scattered.

That's more or less the point I was making. In order to believe this, you have to believe that they screwed up by not getting back by EoD and changing their votes.

Jack STILL hasn't posted since Thursday morning, you think he was being strategic, or just kinda dipped for a bit?

Falcon's last post was Wednesday afternoon - you think his team was counting on him to rally and do the optimal play?

[Long Con]

Radishes was the counterwagon. Why isn't it Radishes though?

[MacDougall]

LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.

also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.

We just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.

I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.

So your case is that I not only bussed Falcon but then to follow it up now decided to bury my other partner too?

[Long Con]

LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.

also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.

We just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.

I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.

So your case is that I not only bussed Falcon but then to follow it up now decided to bury my other partner too?

You do seem to be voting Jack right now, it's true. I'm willing to take it one step at a time. Instant double-bus is not realistic. [VOTE: jack] aubergine

[Long Con]

Why isn't it gims?

[gims]

Radishes was the counterwagon. Why isn't it Radishes though?

not if your worldview is jack/mac

[gims]

Why isn't it gims?

I had a lot of control over the gamestate at ELO because I was the only player townreading radish, while kay and roxy wanted to kill him. I had many ways to make sure a townie would die instead of my partner, as that would lead to a scum win. I'd be p ashamed if I put my partner on a 4-2 at EOD instead of at least going 3-3 and forcing a flip, and that doesn't even count for the fact that I put radish himself at 3 votes so he could flip with mac after I asked him to vote mac. I was in a position where I could kill radish, mac and falcon by playing very normal mafia, and if we're dealing with a 3 player scumteam, that would be scum win. if im scum at that eod, scum wouldn't flip.

[Master Radishes]

Radishes was the counterwagon. Why isn't it Radishes though?

I think falcon's iso spews me town more than it does anyone else but I realise I may be biased in that.

[gims]

Instant double-bus is not realistic.

and thats the problem im having with your solve.

you rely everything on mac scum, but when I ask for a partner, you choose exactly the guy mac is pushing, for *no* reason if mac is scum. we are once again very likely at ELO another day, and if both scum bussed, they can just clear the wagon and push elsewhere. thats simple enough, so for mac to be then pushing a jack flip as s^s, it just makes no sense. I don't really understand your push outside of agenda driven scum reasons, tbh. I'm trying to cause you post like a townie. but I don't understand this push. and I'm not saying mac is definitely always town, but not for the reasons you stated thus far imo.

[Master Radishes]

Why isn't it gims?

I've had this thought. I skimmed through his iso earlier today. Even if I tinfoil that he's pocketing me by deterring my elimination at every turn (which would be an unusual tactic considering my thread position but maybe he was just hoping to claim cred after my flip) I still see a very organic iso. I don't know how to explain it but he just seems to move from worldview to worldview we events unfold in a way that feels unnecessary as scum and genuine in a towny way.

If I end up in F3 with gims I'll re-evaluate but I just vibe in a way I occasionally do with someone on the same wavelength as I am about the gamestate.

[Master Radishes]

To use an old reference from MU,

Falcon's iso was a plinko board. Gims' iso is a waterfall.

[Long Con]

Why isn't it gims?

I had a lot of control over the gamestate at ELO because I was the only player townreading radish, while kay and roxy wanted to kill him. I had many ways to make sure a townie would die instead of my partner, as that would lead to a scum win. I'd be p ashamed if I put my partner on a 4-2 at EOD instead of at least going 3-3 and forcing a flip, and that doesn't even count for the fact that I put radish himself at 3 votes so he could flip with mac after I asked him to vote mac. I was in a position where I could kill radish, mac and falcon by playing very normal mafia, and if we're dealing with a 3 player scumteam, that would be scum win. if im scum at that eod, scum wouldn't flip.

Is it equally unlikely that any of the active voters at EoD are Wolf then?

[Long Con]

Radishes was the counterwagon. Why isn't it Radishes though?

not if your worldview is jack/mac

I don't want a worldview, I want a solve.