The Donner Party - Day 7

[thellama73]

Anyway, I have not made up my mind to vote for you, FZ. As I mentioned, a lot of your posts do seem like you are sincerely trying to help. I'm just not comfortable giving out all of my previous teammates' info to people I'm not sure if I can trust. I'm going to reread the thread again before I decide who to vote for.

[FZ.]

How are the names of my teammates from previous days going to help you, and how is you knowing them going to help me?

For instance, you were a Donner. Which one of the Donners was first to leave, which was the second, and so on. Since then, how many died, and in what role (or power if we're allowed to discuss it). If we find a pattern of who moved first and if one of them died, in what role they died, it can help us figure out if there's a pattern we can follow. Of course, assuming we're allowed to do so (and I'm assuming we are because Roxy said we can talk about previous roles).

As far as I know, all the role changes happen at the same time, so I still don't understand this "who moved first business."

I also don't think "give me all the information you have and then decide whether you trust me" is a very trustworthy thing to ask.

Well, for us, 3 players stayed in the same roles in the first rotation and only one switched and disappeared and we got a former baddie. I don't know if the other baddies from his group moved, but judging by the fact Bloop didn't die, I'm thinking maybe she didn't. I know she started out as a baddie. Then, someone killed one of my team and then I lost the previous baddie and another player. What I'm trying to say is, it didn't all happen at once.
But let me tell you, you are protesting a little too much. Not sure how much I trust you at this point.


Anyway, I want to try a new angle.
Since three people are off the lynch poll, I wonder if there's a pattern there. Say at least one person has to be on the poll from each group. If there are two people in the group left, one is off and one is on. If there are three, two are on, and one is off, etc'. Not sure what happens if only one person is in the group, but I assume they are still on. I also think we have 5 groups because Levina is killed. We have 10 players alive and 7 are on the poll. If we can figure out how many people in each group are dead, we can know if my theory is right. If so, 2 out of the seven people are baddies and it will be easier to figure out who they are. Does that sound crazy?


linki: I still don't know what you have to lose by doing it. but fair enough

[FZ.]

By the way, I think my theory works both in my case and in Bass and Ty's case (unless they are more than two and I missed it)

[Long Con]

I also do not understand this "who moved first" talk. After the first rotation, all my family's roles stayed the same, but there was a number of abilities changed. After the second rotation, everything changed... my family, my role, my ability, my teammates.

Is this not the experience that everyone else had?

[FZ.]

I also do not understand this "who moved first" talk. After the first rotation, all my family's roles stayed the same, but there was a number of abilities changed. After the second rotation, everything changed... my family, my role, my ability, my teammates.

Is this not the experience that everyone else had?

No, I just explained it above.

[thellama73]

I also do not understand this "who moved first" talk. After the first rotation, all my family's roles stayed the same, but there was a number of abilities changed. After the second rotation, everything changed... my family, my role, my ability, my teammates.

Is this not the experience that everyone else had?

That's the experience I had.

Regarding FZ's theory... I guess I am alone on this, but I never see the point in speculations based on nothing. I don't understand when Turnip Head does it, I don't understand when FZ does it. I can make up anything, call it a "theory" and assume it's correct. "Maybe one of the role secrets is that we've been given access to each others' accounts and the person posting as FZ is not really FZ!" I don't understand why people like to assume things for which we have no evidence, but a lot of people do it, so maybe I am the weird one.

[FZ.]

I also do not understand this "who moved first" talk. After the first rotation, all my family's roles stayed the same, but there was a number of abilities changed. After the second rotation, everything changed... my family, my role, my ability, my teammates.

Is this not the experience that everyone else had?

That's the experience I had.

Regarding FZ's theory... I guess I am alone on this, but I never see the point in speculations based on nothing. I don't understand when Turnip Head does it, I don't understand when FZ does it. I can make up anything, call it a "theory" and assume it's correct. "Maybe one of the role secrets is that we've been given access to each others' accounts and the person posting as FZ is not really FZ!" I don't understand why people like to assume things for which we have no evidence, but a lot of people do it, so maybe I am the weird one.

You're shooting down every idea I have today. If we're going to base our votes on your ideas, we either come up with nothing at best, or at worst, lynch me and lose a civ.

But I'm kind of fed up with being the only one who's actually trying to find a way to find baddies. You don't want to go there, fine. I'm done. I'll make my decision before I go to bed.
No offence.

[Long Con]

Have you said yet who your system told you is a baddie? I caught up on my phone a little, so I might have missed it.

[thellama73]

I also do not understand this "who moved first" talk. After the first rotation, all my family's roles stayed the same, but there was a number of abilities changed. After the second rotation, everything changed... my family, my role, my ability, my teammates.

Is this not the experience that everyone else had?

That's the experience I had.

Regarding FZ's theory... I guess I am alone on this, but I never see the point in speculations based on nothing. I don't understand when Turnip Head does it, I don't understand when FZ does it. I can make up anything, call it a "theory" and assume it's correct. "Maybe one of the role secrets is that we've been given access to each others' accounts and the person posting as FZ is not really FZ!" I don't understand why people like to assume things for which we have no evidence, but a lot of people do it, so maybe I am the weird one.

You're shooting down every idea I have today. If we're going to base our votes on your ideas, we either come up with nothing at best, or at worst, lynch me and lose a civ.

But I'm kind of fed up with being the only one who's actually trying to find a way to find baddies. You don't want to go there, fine. I'm done. I'll make my decision before I go to bed.
No offence.

Sorry, I just don't see any point in speculation of that nature, and I never have. I don't see why we would assume things to be true that we have no reason to believe are true. I'm not the only one here though. I'm sure other people will be more receptive, but it doesn't make sense to me.

[Turnip Head]

I don't understand when Turnip Head does it

Hey now, watch it bub!

[thellama73]

So BR, LC and I all exerienced the same rotation pattern. FZ's was different, and no one else has said. I'm less inclined to vote people who share my rotation pattern, so that leaves BAss, FZ, Russ, and Zombrella.

[Long Con]

Since three people are off the lynch poll, I wonder if there's a pattern there. Say at least one person has to be on the poll from each group. If there are two people in the group left, one is off and one is on. If there are three, two are on, and one is off, etc'. Not sure what happens if only one person is in the group, but I assume they are still on. I also think we have 5 groups because Levina is killed. We have 10 players alive and 7 are on the poll. If we can figure out how many people in each group are dead, we can know if my theory is right. If so, 2 out of the seven people are baddies and it will be easier to figure out who they are. Does that sound crazy?

I like this idea. Are two Donners dead right now that we know of? I'd say there's four Civvies dead that I can feel sure of, and any that have been killed at night are not within my field of view... maybe a couple more Civs gone?

Ten out of seventeen players left, and... did we kill one baddie or two so far? If two, then the four Civvies dead that I'm thinking of, and one at night. I'd like to think that there's a couple of baddies represented on the poll at least.

[thellama73]

Oh, and SVS. Where is she today, anyway?

[FZ.]

Since three people are off the lynch poll, I wonder if there's a pattern there. Say at least one person has to be on the poll from each group. If there are two people in the group left, one is off and one is on. If there are three, two are on, and one is off, etc'. Not sure what happens if only one person is in the group, but I assume they are still on. I also think we have 5 groups because Levina is killed. We have 10 players alive and 7 are on the poll. If we can figure out how many people in each group are dead, we can know if my theory is right. If so, 2 out of the seven people are baddies and it will be easier to figure out who they are. Does that sound crazy?

I like this idea. Are two Donners dead right now that we know of? I'd say there's four Civvies dead that I can feel sure of, and any that have been killed at night are not within my field of view... maybe a couple more Civs gone?

Ten out of seventeen players left, and... did we kill one baddie or two so far? If two, then the four Civvies dead that I'm thinking of, and one at night. I'd like to think that there's a couple of baddies represented on the poll at least.

We killed two baddies: Epi and Trice, once from each team. MP, MM and Tricks were all civvies. We don't know about Rico and Bloop. Rico started out as Levina, and while his power was rotated, I think he was still Levina when NK. So it leaves Bloop. I fear that by the time she was NK, she was a civ too. MP was a Breen for sure and MM was a Donner. I think we still have 3 Donners, unless Bloop became one. That would make the Donners have 1-2 players still on the poll. The Breens only lost one, unless Bloop was a breen, so they have 2-3 on the poll. That makes 3-5 players. At least two Reeds are dead, and 2 are left, one of them being on the poll. This leads us to 4-6 players so far. Since I think there's at least one person off the poll from a group of more than 1 player, I'm assuming Bloop was a civ when killed (I'm thinking a Breen), and we still have 2 baddies on the poll.

It's not me, nor is it Bass. I think that whoever knows they are the Donners, can pick one of the others as the baddie

[Zombarella]

So BR, LC and I all exerienced the same rotation pattern. FZ's was different, and no one else has said. I'm less inclined to vote people who share my rotation pattern, so that leaves BAss, FZ, Russ, and Zombrella.

I don't get how my role rotation would affect my civviness. But based on the rotation pattern of my family I would suspect Russ, LC, Ty and BR. The only one that overlaps is Russ. I really like FZs analysis and I think they help the civs. She helped us find Blooper and Rico. Right now I want to vote for Russ.

[Zombarella]

So BR, LC and I all exerienced the same rotation pattern. FZ's was different, and no one else has said. I'm less inclined to vote people who share my rotation pattern, so that leaves BAss, FZ, Russ, and Zombrella.

I don't get how my role rotation would affect my civviness. But based on the rotation pattern of my family I would suspect Russ, LC, Ty and BR. The only one that overlaps is Russ. I really like FZs analysis and I think they help the civs. She helped us find Blooper and Rico. Right now I want to vote for Russ.

I mean Trice, not Rico.

[Zombarella]

I don't get how my role rotation would affect my civviness.

I said this wrong. I do get it.

[Roxy]

MP, MM and Tricks were all civvies.

[FZ.]

MP, MM and Tricks were all civvies.

I meant Splints. I always get you mixed up.

[Zombarella]

@Snowman- I don't think your vote for Bass makes any sense.

[FZ.]

@Snowman- I don't think your vote for Bass makes any sense.

Neither do I

[Zombarella]

@Snowman- I don't think your vote for Bass makes any sense.

Neither do I

So who are you going to vote for?

[FZ.]

@Snowman- I don't think your vote for Bass makes any sense.

Neither do I

So who are you going to vote for?

Probably Russ, unless someone gives me a good reason why I shouldn't

[FZ.]

LC, can you tell me who you started out as?
Same goes for BR? who was with you?

[FZ.]

I'm voting Russ for now, because I need to go. I hope I'll be able to stop by before deadline, and I hope and LC answer me, because my choice might change based on that.

[Long Con]

I'm fine with you voting for Russ. I don't know what role he changed into. I don't want to tell you who my old teammates and roles were, because I'm trying to stay as far away from the complicated line of info-dropping. If everyone else starts sharing this information, if everyone is in agreement that it's the way to go, then I'll gladly follow along and do the same. I'm just not going to be first out of the gates on this one, I don't need any more run-ins with the Infodump Police.

[Bass_the_Clever]

Has S~V~S been on at all today?

[thellama73]

Well, Russ may well be bad, but my gut is still saying Zombrella, so I'm placing my vote there.

[Zombarella]

Well, Russ may well be bad, but my gut is still saying Zombrella, so I'm placing my vote there.

You and your guy need to just take it easy! I'm willing to bet money on Russ' evility.

[Zombarella]

Well, Russ may well be bad, but my gut is still saying Zombrella, so I'm placing my vote there.

You and your guy need to just take it easy! I'm willing to bet money on Russ' evility.

Agggh! No more playing from my phone. You and your gut! Maybe you guy needs to too. :P

[Marmot]

Well, Russ may well be bad, but my gut is still saying Zombrella, so I'm placing my vote there.

You and your guy need to just take it easy! I'm willing to bet money on Russ' evility.

[TySlayer]

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

[thellama73]

Well, Russ may well be bad, but my gut is still saying Zombrella, so I'm placing my vote there.

You and your guy need to just take it easy! I'm willing to bet money on Russ' evility.

I guess we will see if you are right. I hope you are.

[thellama73]

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

I said she was TRYING to be helpful. I don't find her analysis helpful.

[Zombarella]

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

I wish we could lunch you!

[thellama73]

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

I wish we could lunch you!

On this we agree.

[Snowman]

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

I wish we could lunch you!

On this we agree.

[S~V~S]

Sorry for the AFK guys, for the second time in a week I was mafiaed out (not from this game) and needed to go do real things like balance my checkbook.

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

I wish we could lunch you!

On this we agree.

Did someone go over to the dark side last rotation? Ty is acting differently. Llama, I am not sure you are right re Zomba. I have not particularly noticed any change of tone in Russ' posts though, and I did not particularly think he is bad.

[thellama73]

I've been wrong before.

[Long Con]

Actually, I might be up for a zomberella lynch. I've been looking at the original letters and made a couple of assumptions based on the night polls , and I may have a pattern to follow. It points to Z and one other player as likely baddies based on what I know, and eliminating roles who have died.

[Zombarella]

Actually, I might be up for a zomberella lynch. I've been looking at the original letters and made a couple of assumptions based on the night polls , and I may have a pattern to follow. It points to Z and one other player as likely baddies based on what I know, and eliminating roles who have died.

That's convenient and weak. A secret pattern that only you know that points to me? Who is the other one that it points to?

[Bass_the_Clever]

I went ahead and voted russ.

[FZ.]

Sorry for the AFK guys, for the second time in a week I was mafiaed out (not from this game) and needed to go do real things like balance my checkbook.

Llama was too quick to trust FZ. I don't trust either of them, and if llama is actually saying FZs posts are HELPFUL, then there's trouble afoot.

I wish we could lunch you!

On this we agree.

Did someone go over to the dark side last rotation? Ty is acting differently. Llama, I am not sure you are right re Zomba. I have not particularly noticed any change of tone in Russ' posts though, and I did not particularly think he is bad.

Who do you think is bad?

And LC, who's the other baddie you're thinking about?

[FZ.]

Unless Russ is a Donner, he has to be bad

[Zombarella]

Unless Russ is a Donner, he has to be bad

My thoughts exactly!

[S~V~S]

@FZ~ It sounds to me like Ty is. He is acting like a totally different person, but he is off the poll.

Not sure how you can decide someone is bad based on what exactly? After two rotations? Haven't you been mistrusting Russ since Day 1?

I have almost no opinion of pretty much anyone that is actually on the poll. And since another rotation is imminent, I am not sure I want to take the time to find out tbh. I don't want to vote for either Zomba or Russ, so I need to do some quick rereading.

[FZ.]

@FZ~ It sounds to me like Ty is. He is acting like a totally different person, but he is off the poll.

Not sure how you can decide someone is bad based on what exactly? After two rotations? Haven't you been mistrusting Russ since Day 1?

I have almost no opinion of pretty much anyone that is actually on the poll. And since another rotation is imminent, I am not sure I want to take the time to find out tbh. I don't want to vote for either Zomba or Russ, so I need to do some quick rereading.

So your trust in Zomba and Russ if due to the fact you don't see a change in them from last day? Do you really expect people to be that obvious? If you had to choose between the two, who would you vote for?

[FZ.]

SVS, unless you convince some of us why it's not good to vote for Russ, you voting for someone else is not going to help anyone.

[thellama73]

I am also mystified as to how people are claiming that Russ must be bad if he's not a Donner. It's giving me the willies.

[FZ.]

I am also mystified as to how people are claiming that Russ must be bad if he's not a Donner. It's giving me the willies.

If I say why, you'll accuse me of info dumping. Make up your mind. If you want an explanation I'll give it to you. But let's say I'm seeing the voting pattern