WORLD TOUR MAFIA II: JAPAN [DAY FIVE]

[GoSpursGo]

Day 1 VC, 9/25/26 at 1300 EDT

Duelist Mirage () -
Trekkie99 (1) - Scotty
Tranq () -
Vivax (2) - Nicole, Long Con
dubz () -
Nicole (2) - gims, nutella, vivax
nutella (1) - leetic
DrWilgy (1) - Epig
Porscha () -
leetic (1) - DM, Spurs
Spurs (1) - pyxxy
pyxxy () -
Epig (2) - MacDougall, gims

12/20

Leading: Nicole, @Vivax and @Epignosis
Missing: DrWilgy, dubz, Michelle, Porscha, Trekkie, Rondo, Tranq, Jess

Vote closes at on 9/26/26 at 0600 EDT (17 hours)

@GoSpursGo

I appreciate the gesture, but I'd prefer if you didn't mention (at) me for leading a poll. It's not necessary. I have a machine that does that for me. Plus eyeballs.

Noted

[Scotty]

Excellent. My inclination is to look at the wagoners that tried to run up the numbers on Nicole in the twilight hours.

Oh wait, I’m one of those.

I feel really good about the early wagoners

As far as potential matrix’s….im only worried about Framers existing. There exists some Miller options, but I refuse to believe Nicole is a miller with
A) how she went about her d1
B) the fact that we started the LAST World tour with a miller D1 death. Odds are we aren’t that monumentally unlucky

Framer is a possibility with that role, I suppose, to throw us off with this D1, because as we know, working off a solve with a faulty D1 is bingo bongo bango for mafia teams

Need to see how night deaths shake up the mess

[Scotty]

If Nicole really was a politician, it should be mafia’s job to run up those numbers.

[VOTE: Nicole] aubergine

This is fine.

I'm going to sleep. Will probably regret not voting Rondo here, but at least Nicole seems to have tension with both Leetic and DM.

Now departing. Please clear the doors.

This is not someone that wants to really push for Nicole. It’s quite shruggy and hedgy, and I think it’s a GREAT look for Wilgy based on circumstances

[Scotty]

I can’t get over the fact Nights are open. This is huge for the functioning members of Japanese society

[gims]

I caught nicole on page 1 and voted her like 3 times I'm clear

[GoSpursGo]

I can’t get over the fact Nights are open. This is huge for the functioning members of Japanese society

I simultaneously love and hate open nights

[gims]

I still find DM and trekkie sus

[gims]

alright yeah she could be town we'll never know I suppose but I'm running with the assumption she was mafia

DM hopping on multiple counterwagons looked self aware abt that flip to me

[Scotty]

Tranq is probably the sketchiest late vote for NAD, but even then, it doesn’t feel like a slam dunk. Rondo waffled and offered to vote there, but didn’t vote at all. That’s NAI, but I’m wondering how much effort he would have made to switch up the pot onto a different person if he were bad with Nicole.

Gims followed my vote without word, and could also be considered a sketchy vote, but also didn’t push too hard for her.

Those 2 are the sketchiest votes from my POV. But I don’t particularly find them…wolfy.

Barring a framer, I feel good about the entire wagon on Nicole tbh

[Scotty]

I caught nicole on page 1 and voted her like 3 times I'm clear

Ak-shull-ee

Nicole is a role that mafia would want to push early and often.

So….

[Scotty]

I still find DM and trekkie sus

alright yeah she could be town we'll never know I suppose but I'm running with the assumption she was mafia

DM hopping on multiple counterwagons looked self aware abt that flip to me

Does Nicole being that particular role weigh in at all for you in finding DM Sus?

[gims]

I have no idea what role she is

[GoSpursGo]

Excellent. My inclination is to look at the wagoners that tried to run up the numbers on Nicole in the twilight hours.

Assuming she was a politician, the wagon was in a sweet spot where it was hard to do anything with it. They needed three votes to make a majority.

Could also have been hiding among the nonvoters, or simply gone to bed before the wagon picked back up

[gims]

mafia wont want to kill their partners cause numbers

DM just felt self aware abt the nicole wagon going through and her positing on multiple counterwagons almost look like she wanted to appear unaware of the flip, thats what im suspecting

[gims]

spurs and scotty can lead us moving forward at any rate

[GoSpursGo]

I caught nicole on page 1 and voted her like 3 times I'm clear

Ak-shull-ee

Nicole is a role that mafia would want to push early and often.

So….

I’m not sure I fully agree, a politician seems like it would grow much more powerful late in the game when wagons often break down into two counter wagons, increasing the odds of a true majority (and thus the vote failing). D1 is probably the most vulnerable time for them when you would expect a wagon to win with a plurality

[MacDougall]

Day 1 has ended.

NicoleandDime has died.

Their affiliation was:

Spoiler: show

MAFIA

Their role was:

Spoiler: show

Politician - You are only able to die via day poll if you receive a plurality (but not an outright majority) of all votes cast.

It is now Night One. The thread is unlocked. You have ~22 hours to get in your night actions, because it's daylight savings for me overnight and I can't quite work out how that's going to screw with timezones yet.

Wowww. Wilgy and Scotty are so townie. Sheep til dead.

[Trekkie99]

Good evening (morning) lol
sips coffee
mmm. I’m dumb

[GoSpursGo]

spurs and scotty can lead us moving forward at any rate

Oh goodness no, don’t give me that sort of responsibility!

Nutella can be fearless leader

[MacDougall]

Excellent. My inclination is to look at the wagoners that tried to run up the numbers on Nicole in the twilight hours.

Oh wait, I’m one of those.

I feel really good about the early wagoners

As far as potential matrix’s….im only worried about Framers existing. There exists some Miller options, but I refuse to believe Nicole is a miller with
A) how she went about her d1
B) the fact that we started the LAST World tour with a miller D1 death. Odds are we aren’t that monumentally unlucky

Framer is a possibility with that role, I suppose, to throw us off with this D1, because as we know, working off a solve with a faulty D1 is bingo bongo bango for mafia teams

Need to see how night deaths shake up the mess

What a strange inclination. Late voters essentially nailed the wolf including you. Just clear the whole wagon haha.

[MacDougall]

Tranq is probably the sketchiest late vote for NAD, but even then, it doesn’t feel like a slam dunk. Rondo waffled and offered to vote there, but didn’t vote at all. That’s NAI, but I’m wondering how much effort he would have made to switch up the pot onto a different person if he were bad with Nicole.

Gims followed my vote without word, and could also be considered a sketchy vote, but also didn’t push too hard for her.

Those 2 are the sketchiest votes from my POV. But I don’t particularly find them…wolfy.

Barring a framer, I feel good about the entire wagon on Nicole tbh

Thats better. Soothe your anoos.

[MacDougall]

I have no idea what role she is

This fuqer is town asf

[MacDougall]

mafia wont want to kill their partners cause numbers

DM just felt self aware abt the nicole wagon going through and her positing on multiple counterwagons almost look like she wanted to appear unaware of the flip, thats what im suspecting

This is suuuuuuch a good read and so towny

[MacDougall]

So DM was also a wolf so there was no valid town c/w. Seems pretty likely.

Dubz is probs town.

Trekkie can be mafia too. Tried to get some motion on michele after I said she was a lil sus.

Do the things town. I believe in u and such.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Politician
Coordinates:
U7 / S8 / L14 / H16 / G19

Letters: G / H / L / S / U
Numbers: 7 / 8 / 14 / 16 / 19

Surgeon
Coordinates:
A4 / U6 / Q8 / L17

Letters: A / L / Q / U
Numbers: 4 / 6 / 8 / 17

Miller
Coordinates:
W3 / O4 / D8 / N9 / L12 / U13 / I14 / T21

Letters: D / I / L / N / O / T / U / W
Numbers: 3 / 4 / 8 / 9 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 21

Forger
Coordinates:
T2 / R3 / D4 / B10 / V10 / Q11 / C13 / B21 / J21

Letters: B / C / D / J / Q / R / T / V
Numbers: 2 / 3 / 4 / 10 / 11 / 13 / 21


=====================
33 non miller options
16 miller options
49 options total
67.35% not miller

23 non politician options
10 politician options
33 mafia total
69.70% not politician

Both % are true
67.35% × 69.70% = 46.94%

Both % are wrong
32.65% × 30.30% = 9.89%

conclusion, worlds for not politician not miller most likely
=====================
all worlds
A / B / C / D / G / H / I / J / L / N / O / Q / R / S / T / U / V / W
2 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 16 / 17 / 19 / 21

[RondoDimBuckle]

my maths is probably flawed

[Scotty]

Good evening (morning) lol
sips coffee
mmm. I’m dumb

Your haiku skills need work

[Scotty]

Politician
Coordinates:
U7 / S8 / L14 / H16 / G19

Letters: G / H / L / S / U
Numbers: 7 / 8 / 14 / 16 / 19

Surgeon
Coordinates:
A4 / U6 / Q8 / L17

Letters: A / L / Q / U
Numbers: 4 / 6 / 8 / 17

Miller
Coordinates:
W3 / O4 / D8 / N9 / L12 / U13 / I14 / T21

Letters: D / I / L / N / O / T / U / W
Numbers: 3 / 4 / 8 / 9 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 21

Forger
Coordinates:
T2 / R3 / D4 / B10 / V10 / Q11 / C13 / B21 / J21

Letters: B / C / D / J / Q / R / T / V
Numbers: 2 / 3 / 4 / 10 / 11 / 13 / 21


=====================
33 non miller options
16 miller options
49 options total
67.35% not miller

23 non politician options
10 politician options
33 mafia total
69.70% not politician

Both % are true
67.35% × 69.70% = 46.94%

Both % are wrong
32.65% × 30.30% = 9.89%

conclusion, worlds for not politician not miller most likely
=====================
all worlds
A / B / C / D / G / H / I / J / L / N / O / Q / R / S / T / U / V / W
2 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 16 / 17 / 19 / 21

Eliminate the worlds with surgeon

That is the most backwards way of using that role, I refuse to believe

[Scotty]

Politician
Coordinates:
U7 / S8 / L14 / H16 / G19

Letters: G / H / L / S / U
Numbers: 7 / 8 / 14 / 16 / 19

Surgeon
Coordinates:
A4 / U6 / Q8 / L17

Letters: A / L / Q / U
Numbers: 4 / 6 / 8 / 17

Miller
Coordinates:
W3 / O4 / D8 / N9 / L12 / U13 / I14 / T21

Letters: D / I / L / N / O / T / U / W
Numbers: 3 / 4 / 8 / 9 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 21

Forger
Coordinates:
T2 / R3 / D4 / B10 / V10 / Q11 / C13 / B21 / J21

Letters: B / C / D / J / Q / R / T / V
Numbers: 2 / 3 / 4 / 10 / 11 / 13 / 21


=====================
33 non miller options
16 miller options
49 options total
67.35% not miller

23 non politician options
10 politician options
33 mafia total
69.70% not politician

Both % are true
67.35% × 69.70% = 46.94%

Both % are wrong
32.65% × 30.30% = 9.89%

conclusion, worlds for not politician not miller most likely
=====================
all worlds
A / B / C / D / G / H / I / J / L / N / O / Q / R / S / T / U / V / W
2 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 16 / 17 / 19 / 21

Eliminate the worlds with surgeon

That is the most backwards way of using that role, I refuse to believe

Er, at least the worlds with surgeon and NO politician

[Scotty]

Gah, framer possibility makes this phase and night phase largely circumstantial for solving this early.

Might just need to stick to D1 scumreads for now.

There’s so many of you.

[RondoDimBuckle]

there is a chance its multiball with politician on the other side and they (team with surgeon) might not be aware of it (team with politician) so Its worth being aware of it

[RondoDimBuckle]

the questions is, if you think NiCHol is town, miller / forger, if you think NiCHol is mafia, surgeon / politician

[RondoDimBuckle]

time to go back to ignoring the game till flips

[GoSpursGo]

I’ve never played with a framer—is it basically always correct to use it day 1? It feels like given how jumbled d1 often is it may be better to just get a miselim d1 and then use the framer later to mislear players due to more information

That said since eventually it will become obvious what matrix world we are in, maybe it is correct to use it now before it’s obvious that a framer exists.

Hum

[RondoDimBuckle]

oh one more thing

Politician - You are only able to die via day poll if you receive a plurality (but not an outright majority) of all votes cast.

does 7/18 count as "plurality"????

[GoSpursGo]

oh one more thing

Politician - You are only able to die via day poll if you receive a plurality (but not an outright majority) of all votes cast.

does 7/18 count as "plurality"????

Yes. Majority would have been 10/18 or more

[RondoDimBuckle]

yeah as I posted it it finally made sense to me

[RondoDimBuckle]

A nice round even 20, time to really bail

[Trekkie99]

@gims I would prefer going back to nicole over leetic tbh

Anyone wanna bring back the nicole wagon

Anyone wanna bring back the nicole wagon

Why not you?

But sure, I’m a vain person, I can vote the person I called “actual mafia” on page 1

[VOTE: nicoleanddime] aubergine

[VOTE: Nicole ] aubergine

Anyone wanna bring back the nicole wagon

Could do that since she didn't vote in the poll.

[VOTE: NicoleAndDime] aubergine

I think Epi is a miss, strictly because I don’t trust Mac who is currently voting there, and he is not a worthwhile flip at this juncture

I don't really disagree (other than maybe about Mac? it was the early Vivax townread that I liked from him, I checked)

[VOTE: Rondo] aubergine

It's gotta work someday?

Wilgy is so townie wowee.

Epi seems townier now too.

I didn't like that it's trying to undermine towncore

What bloody towncore?

lol

Michelle's use of the phrase "late to the party" is noteworthy as the only other time she has said that was earlier this year in GoC where she was mafia: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 0#p1165130

So yeah, maybe. That could be a tell. Other than that it looks like she was only able to be here for about 15 minutes.

Beautiful. Stunning. Exquisite. Forum mafia in it's purist form.

Mac 3p?

I don’t like you immediately labeling Mac as 3p in a game that may not even have 3p’s.

Trekkie still on my wolf list

It’s probably just their play style but their confidence felt like it was on a higher plane above town or scum with TMI. Could also be multiball but 3p pinged in my head like a missing puzzle piece

[Trekkie99]

Good evening (morning) lol
sips coffee
mmm. I’m dumb

Your haiku skills need work

LMAO

[Trekkie99]

Fuck me if I found two scum and immediately town read them

Wilgy catchup felt really good

[Scotty]

the questions is, if you think NiCHol is town, miller / forger, if you think NiCHol is mafia, surgeon / politician

Well there’s a reason I voted Nicole, and it wasn’t because I thought she was town

[Duelist Mirage]

Cool, open night ...Did we get told that was gonna happen or could happen? I don't recall seeing anything about that being possible

I still find DM and trekkie sus

Are you still sick? Your continued inability to find me here is distressing

And Trek is like, so not a wolf with Nicole

[gims]

Are you still sick?

yes

[gims]

Politician - You are only able to die via day poll if you receive a plurality (but not an outright majority) of all votes cast.

does 7/18 count as "plurality"????

I frankly have absolutely no idea what any of this means

so scum could've piled on nicole to save her and they didn't?

[gims]

maybe they didn't cause it would out them after she eventually flipped

good chance that this was never tried by the scum team, especially when I look at the wagon which seems to be most if not all townies

[gims]

Your continued inability to find me here is distressing

I don't find you in many games

this is one of those games if you're town

[GoSpursGo]

Politician - You are only able to die via day poll if you receive a plurality (but not an outright majority) of all votes cast.

does 7/18 count as "plurality"????

I frankly have absolutely no idea what any of this means

so scum could've piled on nicole to save her and they didn't?

In addition to it potentially being outing in the future, they may also not have had the numbers. Would need 3 votes to save her. Possible they already had some votes on her, or if this is multiball they may not have 4 in a single pack.

[Tranq]

This cannot be multiball, right? Politician only appears in worlds with 1 mafia team.

[gims]

Politician only appears in worlds with 1 mafia team.

why is that? I think it would make sense in multiball precisely because multiple scum teams cannot manipulate wagons as well, so the politician needs to be outed mafia basically to work