Death Note Mafia [END]

#4551

Turnip Head wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I honestly don't know how to defend myself either. But, I will try to answer any and all questions to the best of my ability.
You're admittedly in a very crappy spot right now. I don't even know what sorts of questions to ask you. I don't want it to be true, but I have no reason not to trust L

Okay - so mark this page! This is TH's explanation for voting Elo. No one needs to ask him over and over again to explain his vote.

#4552

thellama73 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:L seems absolutely sure about this one but I hate to go simply off of info. Elo why do you think L would say that about you?
I have no clue. He seems to think he knows me. There are so many mechanics in this game...I just don't know.
Oh, so you're suddenly reluctant to assume. How quickly things change.

I wasn't assuming. There is "very little BTSC" in this game right now at this moment as compared to other Mafia games. That is a fact you can know by reading the roles. Get over it, deary.

Linki: I understand your position as well. But we have to think....where might L be getting his info from? Let's start there...maybe we can come up with something together.

#4553

Does anyone have any theories (assumptions okay) about how L could have found out this information?

#4554

Elohcin wrote: I wasn't assuming. There is "very little BTSC" in this game right now at this moment as compared to other Mafia games. That is a fact you can know by reading the roles. Get over it, deary.

Except it's not a fact at all, but we'll leave it for now.

#4555

Zomberella12 wrote:Does anyone have any theories (assumptions okay) about how L could have found out this information?

Nevermind, don't answer this. I'm going to vote Elo unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hours.

#4556

Zomberella12 wrote:Does anyone have any theories (assumptions okay) about how L could have found out this information?

L's secrets could say something like "He is looking for Kira. He gets a percentage back based on which roles his target could be. If L checks [insert Kira sympathizer role here], L automatically learns their role."

I'll also work on a theory that could explain how maybe L could be wrong, but I've got to think it through.

linki: Too late I'm answering you anyway :P

#4557

I am going to think heavily on this, do my own reading, but I won't be voting Eloh. Eloh is not Kira (at least according to L). If others want to lynch her, I won't interfere.

However, while L may be the best detective in the world, the person playing as L is not. Given the host's position on outing, I question info dumped into the thread by proxy of the host.

#4558

Zomberella12 wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:Does anyone have any theories (assumptions okay) about how L could have found out this information?
Nevermind, don't answer this. I'm going to vote Elo unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hours.

Linki: Thank you for taking time to at least consider L could be wrong guys.

#4559

Zomberella12 wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:Does anyone have any theories (assumptions okay) about how L could have found out this information?
Nevermind, don't answer this. I'm going to vote Elo unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hours.

That is a terribly suspicious question to ask. At least you noticed it was a suspicious question to ask.

#4560

Changed my mind again after thinking about it. Does it do any good to lynch a sympathizer if we are trying to kill Kiras? Why would L tell us to eliminate a sympathizer when that's not the goal?

#4561

Epignosis wrote:I am going to think heavily on this, do my own reading, but I won't be voting Eloh. Eloh is not Kira (at least according to L). If others want to lynch her, I won't interfere.

However, while L may be the best detective in the world, the person playing as L is not. Given the host's position on outing, I question info dumped into the thread by proxy of the host.

It does seem important that L stressed she is not actually Kira, but he also told us that we need to lynch her right away.

#4562

Zomberella12 wrote:Changed my mind again after thinking about it. Does it do any good to lynch a sympathizer if we are trying to kill Kiras? Why would L tell us to eliminate a sympathizer when that's not the goal?

Because two sympathizers can become Kira.

#4563

AceofSpaces wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:Does anyone have any theories (assumptions okay) about how L could have found out this information?
Nevermind, don't answer this. I'm going to vote Elo unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hours.
That is a terribly suspicious question to ask. At least you noticed it was a suspicious question to ask.

Yeah, sorry. Sometimes words fall out my mouth (or fingers) before I think them through all the way. I just get excited. I see Epi's point about role outing - however, there is role outing built into some of the roles.

#4564

Turnip Head wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I am going to think heavily on this, do my own reading, but I won't be voting Eloh. Eloh is not Kira (at least according to L). If others want to lynch her, I won't interfere.

However, while L may be the best detective in the world, the person playing as L is not. Given the host's position on outing, I question info dumped into the thread by proxy of the host.
It does seem important that L stressed she is not actually Kira, but he also told us that we need to lynch her right away.

L, to me, is nothing more than a gossip role. I know nothing else about his role that would prompt me to believe otherwise.

#4565

AceofSpaces wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:Changed my mind again after thinking about it. Does it do any good to lynch a sympathizer if we are trying to kill Kiras? Why would L tell us to eliminate a sympathizer when that's not the goal?
Because two sympathizers can become Kira.

Thanks Ace. That is a good point.

#4566

Maybe there is something we can discover in that Kira didn't kill last night. Stopped somehow?

#4567

Zomberella12 wrote:Maybe there is something we can discover in that Kira didn't kill last night. Stopped somehow?

Kira did not kill 2 nights ago. Last nights kill has yet to manifest itself.

#4568

I see one scenario, based on the events of the show, that would cause L to intentionally misguide us. But it wouldn't really be L, rather a certain someone impersonating him. The revealed role secrets don't currently support this hypothesis however.

#4569

These are the L posts:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

This is L.

I have determined that the likelihood of AceofSpaces as Kira is right around 4%.

Despite a poorly considered Day 1 lynch, I do not currently suspect AceofSpaces. Maybe don't let him lead any more lynches, though.

"I do not currently suspect AceofSpaces."
"Maybe don't let him lead any more lynches though."

An opinion and a suggestion.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Hello again. This is L.

I have determined that the likelihood of Russtifinko as Kira is right around 5%.

Hmm, the strong silent type. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

"Hmm, the strong silent type. I'm not sure how I feel about that."

Another subjective claim, followed by indecisiveness.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

This is L.

Elohcin has a 0% chance of being Kira, because she is a confirmed Kira sympathizer. She should be eliminated as soon as possible.

"Elohcin has a 0% chance of being Kira, because she is a confirmed Kira sympathizer."

That's pure objectivity containing an assertiveness that was absent in the previous two posts. This is another reason to maintain the opinion that L is not dropping facts into the thread, but his opinion.

I deduce that L is a someone who is learning how to use this role effectively over time, rather than L gaining definitive info on people that he or she can dump in a gossip post.

Do with this analysis what you wish.

#4570

@ Epi - I like your analysis.

#4571

Even so Epi, that analysis of L's posts doesn't explain why he would suddenly say something with such certainty if it weren't true. He says "confirmed Kira sympathizer". Confirmed. That sort of language wasn't present in his other investigations.

#4572

DharmaHelper wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:Maybe there is something we can discover in that Kira didn't kill last night. Stopped somehow?
Kira did not kill 2 nights ago. Last nights kill has yet to manifest itself.

I don't like this killing during the day thing. I think it encourages people to vote early so that they don't miss the chance to vote (like SVS did).

#4573

Actually, I think that there are lots of things about this game that encourage people to vote early.

#4574

Epignosis wrote:These are the L posts:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

This is L.

I have determined that the likelihood of AceofSpaces as Kira is right around 4%.

Despite a poorly considered Day 1 lynch, I do not currently suspect AceofSpaces. Maybe don't let him lead any more lynches, though.
"I do not currently suspect AceofSpaces."
"Maybe don't let him lead any more lynches though."

An opinion and a suggestion.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Hello again. This is L.

I have determined that the likelihood of Russtifinko as Kira is right around 5%.

Hmm, the strong silent type. I'm not sure how I feel about that.
"Hmm, the strong silent type. I'm not sure how I feel about that."

Another subjective claim, followed by indecisiveness.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

This is L.

Elohcin has a 0% chance of being Kira, because she is a confirmed Kira sympathizer. She should be eliminated as soon as possible.
"Elohcin has a 0% chance of being Kira, because she is a confirmed Kira sympathizer."

That's pure objectivity containing an assertiveness that was absent in the previous two posts. This is another reason to maintain the opinion that L is not dropping facts into the thread, but his opinion.

I deduce that L is a someone who is learning how to use this role effectively over time, rather than L gaining definitive info on people that he or she can dump in a gossip post.

Do with this analysis what you wish.

OORRRRR s/he has a role that can detect Kira and his supporters (not Higgy Smalls, which would leave the 5 percent uncertainty). S/he however just detected a mafia this time around.

ORRR it's not L at all. I have no reason to believe that other than the fact that this would be an straight up outing form L's perspective, and kinda bs-y if it's real. Even if I knew for a fact Elo was mafia, i'd hold that info and see if i could game it a bit. especially since it's a supporter, not a Kira.

#4575

Turnip Head wrote:Even so Epi, that analysis of L's posts doesn't explain why he would suddenly say something with such certainty if it weren't true. He says "confirmed Kira sympathizer". Confirmed. That sort of language wasn't present in his other investigations.

I don't blame you for not reading my post carefully, but at least refrain from posting about it.

I offered an explanation in my post. It's after the pink letters, and that explanation precludes certainty.

#4576

I'm going to have to think about this one a lot. I was intending to vote for FZ, but Elohcin is also somewhat guilty of the thing I was suspecting FZ for. I guess the question I have to answer is, how much do I trust L?

#4577

I mean with a no, a no, and a yes, and the outlier in post style also being the outlier in post result, it fits.

linki- same here llama re: trust

#4578

@Epi: I read your post and I'm pretty sure I understood it. What I don't understand is why L would act like his info is confirmed if it really isn't. Thoughts about that?

#4579

Made wrote:I mean with a no, a no, and a yes, and the outlier in post style also being the outlier in post result, it fits.

linki- same here llama re: trust

Yes and yes. I concur.

#4580

By the by, I am LOVING this game. It is so much fun. Thanks MP!

#4581

Turnip Head wrote:@Epi: I read your post and I'm pretty sure I understood it. What I don't understand is why L would act like his info is confirmed if it really isn't. Thoughts about that?

Because, if L is doing what everybody suggests, that makes L an alignment checker who can broadcast this information anonymously to the thread. That's a gamebreaking mechanic, one I would be disappointed to find in one of MP's games.

That's why.

#4582

That's not enough reason for me to distrust it, personally. There are already other role outing mechanics in place in this game.

#4583

I also hypothesize that L can only learn select roles for certain. Like I speculated earlier, possibly Misa.

#4584

Turnip Head wrote:That's not enough reason for me to distrust it, personally. There are already other role outing mechanics in place in this game.

I didn't ask that anyone distrust it. What I am asking people to do is not accept it as gospel and go voting out of the gate.

By people, I mean people. Not shinigami assholes voting out of the gate.

#4585

Shots fired! And hey now, I may have already voted, but I'm also here doing my part to help sort through this mess :P

#4586

Turnip Head wrote:That's not enough reason for me to distrust it, personally. There are already other role outing mechanics in place in this game.

Then what should be is the possibility that it's from Kyra, which would fit nicely into Epi's argument.

Here's where my head's going:

I went back to read Elo because i wanted to make a point with Russ that i realized was incredibly pette and dropped it. When i looked back, while she hasn't posted as much as are more prolific players, the majority of her post are incite full and strongly back. Why wouldn't a civvie alignment check them with Me, You-- oh wait you're TH...

#4587

And with that, I am hereby ignoring the guy who didn't get lynched last time. I am uncomfortable responding to his posts. If anyone wishes to talk I'm here.

#4588

#4589

*EDWOP Why would a civvie alignment check them with Me, You-- oh wait you're TH..

#4590

Made wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:That's not enough reason for me to distrust it, personally. There are already other role outing mechanics in place in this game.
Then what should be is the possibility that it's from Kyra, which would fit nicely into Epi's argument.

I actually brought up this possibility, but everyone ignored it.

#4591

I am also going to be increasingly suspicious of those who keep interacting with the individual who did not get lynched last.

#4592

Also, another outlier in L's post: the first two were players with large amount of Suspicion, Elo is not. I honestly think we should just ignore this post or use it to figure out who would want Elo dead.

Epi, any thoughts on the stuff i've said above.

#4593

I've been blackballed

#4594

Made wrote:Also, another outlier in L's post: the first two were players with large amount of Suspicion, Elo is not. I honestly think we should just ignore this post or use it to figure out who would want Elo dead.

Epi, any thoughts on the stuff i've said above.

Yeah.

You took the L post and suggested that "Kyra" (Kyra?) wrote the post and tied it to my argument. No no no holmes. That doesn't fit in with my argument at all. I made a very focused analysis with a very focused conclusion. I do not want people to ignore L. But I also do not want them voting just because of L.

Huh.

#4595

Elo who do you think could be a Kira sympathizer?

#4596

Two observations from a reread of Elo:
1. She caught a little heat earlier for suggesting that we not think of Kira sympathizers as baddies. What do people think of that in light of L's post?
2. Epignosis, I noticed in my reread (through a quoted post) that FZ was one of your original suspicions. How do you feel about her today?

#4597

Turnip Head wrote:Elo who do you think could be a Kira sympathizer?

"Who do you think is Kira" is probably a much better question actually.

#4598

Turnip Head wrote:Shots fired! And hey now, I may have already voted, but I'm also here doing my part to help sort through this mess :P

Baloney! Are we supposed to be grateful for your help in "sorting through this mess" before we vote when you don't hold yourself to the same standard? This pings me something terrible.

#4599

Eloh, please ignore anyone who votes for you first and asks questions later. Flat out ignore.

#4600

thellama73 wrote:Two observations from a reread of Elo:
1. She caught a little heat earlier for suggesting that we not think of Kira sympathizers as baddies. What do people think of that in light of L's post?

I think that it means that Elo is a kira sympathizer or that someone is exploiting her prior words to make us think she is. This game is full of lies!