Death Note Mafia [END]

#5751

night post was hilarious and unsurprising. - that said. Scotch? Really kira? Vodka is more my style

#5752

RIP bea

#5753

Well shit. RIP bea.

#5754

goodbye bea!

but I did love that post.

#5755

Juliets, where are you looking for today's vote?

#5756

Turnip Head, you haven't voted yet. Why for?

#5757

I would really like to lynch FZ. However, if a Matahari lynch is in the cards, I will support that.

There are two people I am sure are detectives. If either one of them would dissuade me from either course, I will listen.

"BEA: I've got a message for you from Master Kira himself! YOU'RE NEXT, FZ!"

Horse shit. That's an amateur trying to hard (no offense to whomever wrote it).

#5758

*too

God almighty.

#5759

*whoever

Imma go lie down.

#5760

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Turnip Head, you haven't voted yet. Why for?

I decided to stop doing that.

#5761

RIP Bea

#5762

Turnip Head wrote:Juliets, where are you looking for today's vote?

Well, I'm going to look back at Mata's posts and see if anyone has anything else to say about her and I'll probably look some more at FZ, though I tend to fall on the side that says she wouldn't have said fuck you all if she were bad. I just haven't totally given up on her. Mata will be my first look though, and no telling where else that might lead.

#5763

Epignosis wrote:Imma go lie down.

You've just decreased your deductive reasoning skills by 40%.

#5764

RIP Bea

Pretty sure you were on the level.

@boo

I am here early and late. You post early or late in my British day and I'm likely to be online. I'm not just popping up to defend myself, nor do I "make up" reasons to vote for people. How about asking some fucking questions instead of making faulty conclusions?

It's getting pretty clear to me you're trying to put me in an unwinnable situation. I own my actions and explain them and I'm avoiding accountability. I wait for suspects to emerge because of lack of time and I'm hanging back and being blendy, even though you said you like to do the same. I respond to you and all you have is further questions and twists on my words. All you have is WIFOM and it's beginning to grate. I'll take criticism but not manipulation.

But that's cool, I'd rather you vote for me than chat more of this utter shit.

#5765

I respond to you and all you have is further pre-answered questions and twists on my words.

#5766

zeek, why didn't you vote for FZ.?

#5767

Epignosis wrote:zeek, why didn't you vote for FZ.?

Because that's not how you spell boo.

#5768

zeek wrote:RIP Bea Pretty sure you were on the level.

@boo

I am here early and late. You post early or late in my British day and I'm likely to be online. I'm not just popping up to defend myself, nor do I "make up" reasons to vote for people. How about asking some fucking questions instead of making faulty conclusions?

It's getting pretty clear to me you're trying to put me in an unwinnable situation. I own my actions and explain them and I'm avoiding accountability. I wait for suspects to emerge because of lack of time and I'm hanging back and being blendy, even though you said you like to do the same. I respond to you and all you have is further questions and twists on my words. All you have is WIFOM and it's beginning to grate. I'll take criticism but not manipulation.

But that's cool, I'd rather you vote for me than chat more of this utter shit.

You've made more posts to defend yourself in about a 12 hour window than you had for days before the suspicion combined. So you're able to post, you've just chosen not to prior to now.

You don't own your actions, and you've actually said you won't explain them. So yes, you're avoiding accountability. I don't wait for suspects to emerge as the reason to hold back my vote, I wait to see what, if any, new discussion occurs, so I can use my vote in the way I think is best. You're saving yours (or at least, would be if you were actually saving your vote) to join a bandwagon. I guess if we want to use the time reason, you aren't waiting, because you can't, so you vote earlier than you may like (before the lynch is already decided), but you still make an effort to just vote for the person who gets lynched (without offering anything to the discussion yourself, or when you, offering some really questionable stuff, like with Snowman).

Yes, responding to me will get you more questions. It's a back-and-forth, that's how it works. You haven't said enough in the game for me to get a real read on you, so yes, I'm looking to put you in a position where you'll come out of the shadows and give me something to form an opinion on you. So far? Not feeling eased. Is it a lose-lose for you? No, you could have been more reasonable, everything you've said could have been shifted in a way that would make me feel better about you, but so far, you just feel like a baddie who has been called out for playing a safe game, and is just grumpy about it.

#5769

Where are you looking for today's vote, Zeek?

#5770

There you go again making assumptions about my ability to post. I have a day off today, that's why I can post. If I didn't, I'd get a load of shit about avoiding suspicion. So don't pretend otherwise.

And more assumptions about me. Prove anything you're saying about me bandwagoning, or why I vote the way I have. You can't, because you're making a commentary on my gameplay based on stupid ideas.

Honestly, you said the same bullcrap to bea and look how that turned out. This is exactly lose-lose for me, with you. You've made up your mind, don't pretend otherwise.

What questions? You don't ask questions. I've looked back at your posts and there's a distinct lack of questions. You're not asking why I did this or that, you're saying I think you did this because of that. How can I convince you you're wrong when you've provided the plot details and allowed your ignorant fervour to determine my answers?

#5771

RIP Bea! I had good feelings about you.

I still think FZ should die, but I also agree with Epi and Boomslang about Matahari.

#5772

Turnip Head wrote:Where are you looking for today's vote, Zeek?

I'll have to wait for a bandwagon to jump on. Maybe <insert name here>, because I think <generic statement of baddie behaviour>.

#5773

Thanks for the genuine reply.

#5774

Bass_the_Clever wrote:I not sure who to vote for yet. I'm going to think about it, and come back to vote later.

Does anyone else find it strange that Made forgot the one of the Sympathizers was dead? It almost makes me wonder if he could be Yotsuba and their secret win condition isn't effected by having the Sympathizers dead.

Ok, well. I did a read of Bass now.

Of 50 posts, this is the only one I want to quote, but first, most of his posts are:
1) Telling us he's getting caught up.
2) Telling us he has caught up.
3) Saying goodbye to the person who gets killed.
4) Telling us he's currently busy and well get caught up later.
5) Quoting people and offering a one or two sentence thought.
6) Quoting people he agrees with and using their reason to vote.
7) Voting without quoting, and just vaguely saying he agrees with the suspicion.

So, bass, questions for you:
1) Can you name the 3 people your most suspicious of and think you will vote for today.
2) Without quoting people, can you give reasons why you think those 3 people are the most suspicious? And I do mean reasons, not just saying Person A, Person B, and Person C, because they're suspicious.
3) We know you were right that Made was Yotsuba. Do you still think the reason Made seemed to have forgot a Sympathizer was dead was because it wasn't important to his win condition?

#5775

Zeek, who are you suspicious of?

#5776

I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.

#5777

I have come to the conclusion that my previous deduction (that Higuchi is now killing) is wrong.

#5778

Done reading Boomslang.

He was more active up until Day 3 (in comparison to zeek and Bass). He actually offered his own thoughts, was a part of the discussion, etc. Not all stuff I agree with (and stuff I was suspicious of him at the time for), but at least actual stuff. Since Day 3, he has mostly dropped off, making a few posts during each cycle.

Could just be because he got busy, but the thread was the busiest in the early game, and has (somewhat) toned down since, so it's a little odd to me that given how active he was able to be when things were moving fast, he has been barely able to keep up at all since things slowed down.

For in-game conclusions, it makes me wonder if he got BTSC during or around N3, which would mean he could be Misa or Rem, and he dropped off posting in thread, because most of his activity and attention went to things in BTSC instead.

So, Boom:
If it isn't you, who would you say your top contenders for Misa and Rem are?

#5779

zeek wrote:I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.

I already discussed DP.

#5780

I just looked anyway, not much from DP except a lot of :P

#5781

zeek wrote:I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.

From when I wrote about you:

Now, all that, doesn't necessarily really make me all that suspicious of zeek, I think it's just me not agreeing with how he defines safe play vs. flying under the radar. But I do find how he phrased things that he thinks to be inconsistent, and giving him the benefit of the doubt there over that kind of inconsistency isn't how I do things. So, it results in some suspicion created. I'd at least like to see him discuss what he thinks, what he meant, etc. The kind of thing that I don't think was adequately questioned at the time."

I said what I wanted to see from you. You refused to discuss it, closing off discussion I could actually have with you, making asking you actual questions difficult. You have yet to give TH a straight answer to a simple question, so I'm not sure why you think my not asking you pointed questions would be a good use of my time, when everything you've done since I started discussing you have run contrary to the idea that you're willing to answer anything.

#5782

zeek wrote:I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.

What do you think of Matahari?

#5783

That is complete and utter nonsense, boo. Yeah, I said I didn't want to rehash my Snowman vote AGAIN, but as you can see I did when TH mentioned it again. I've given a simple answer to a simple question back then: I voted Snowman because of the "team" terminology. Is that difficult to read? Just because it's not the best reason to vote for somebody it doesn't mean I haven't answered his concerns as best I can.

Now respond to how easily and without merit you put a commentary to my game play based completely on WIFOM and assumptions about the usage of my free time.

#5784

Turnip Head wrote:
zeek wrote:I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.
What do you think of Matahari?

I haven't seen that much I find suspicious of her. Boom made some interesting points but I don't think it's enough to vote on right now. Who do you suspect?

#5785

Boo, are you saying I haven't explained the safe/radar thing ot my Snowman vote?

Playing it safe means not ruffling feathers of case makers. (And in Zomb's situation playing her baddie role safely by elminating her husband incase he ever got onto her.)
Flying under the radar means not expressing opinions and trying to go unnoticed.

Under the radar players can play it safe, but playing it safe doesn't mean being under the radar.

Anyway, you're clearly trying to box me and twist my words so whatever. If you're not a baddie, don't act this way. Conclusions come after discussions, not before.

#5786

I do hereby summon Turnip Head, the foe of the living, to this realm for conversation and apples.

#5787

zeek wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
zeek wrote:I'm going to try to look at DP tomorrow. I find it strangle boo didn't include him, considering I have about double his posts. I'm also suspicious of boo because of his "questioning" techniques that involve zero questions.

I'm still wary of FZ. She sounded genuine in her defence but I can't help feeling there is a reason Epi is going after her so hard.
What do you think of Matahari?
I haven't seen that much I find suspicious of her. Boom made some interesting points but I don't think it's enough to vote on right now. Who do you suspect?

Mata is by far my biggest suspicion right now, although I don't think she's Mikami, which is the role I'm most interested in lynching today. That said I will still vote for her if I don't feel comfortable voting elsewhere. I think you could be Mikami, zeek, but I'm far from sure about that. At this point I am more suspicious of your general tone - I find you more abrasive and short-tempered here than I remember you being in past games - than your vote for Snowman or willingness to jump on bandwagons.

I have a few other names that I'm keeping an eye on, but am not ready to commit to suspecting them yet.

linki: You rang?

#5788

Turnip Head wrote:linki: You rang?

I am interested in your present thoughts on FZ. I'll respond to anything you ask henceforth. I am sorry for ignoring you. Apple? I myself prefer the prunes.

#5789

I agree with the consensus that FZ wouldn't have told us all to fuck off if she was a baddie. I just don't think it's her style. (I'm sure she will use this against us in the future, though :P ) She also had a chance to hop onto the Made bandwagon on the day she (FZ) was getting the most heat, yet she resisted. That earned her some more goodwill from me, because I think a baddie would have wanted to shift focus anywhere else she could in that moment, and it's not like it would have been difficult for her or anyone else to fake a suspicion of Made.

I do think there's a chance she is Yotsuba, based on her reactions to both BWT's death and Made's team-claim. But if that's the case, I think she's working toward a detective victory as long as it doesn't interfere with her other goals. Her Kira-hunting seems genuine to me.

While you made some good points about her inconsistencies and contradictions, it wasn't enough to sway me into thinking she was bad. I admit I could be getting completely fooled. But that's where I'm at right now.

#5790

Not a big fan of apples or prunes... got any cookies?

#5791

Turnip Head wrote:I agree with the consensus that FZ wouldn't have told us all to fuck off if she was a baddie.

There isn't a consensus. There's a few people who believe that.

Turnip Head wrote:I just don't think it's her style. (I'm sure she will use this against us in the future, though :P )

I don't get this "style" business. With a few exceptions, I have never seen anyone who wasn't an utter noob play according to a style when he or she was bad. That's why that, for me, when people start talking about their style, I question it. Very few people have a consistent style across the board with very few tells.

A bad guy's "style" is to make other people believe he or she shouldn't or can't be lynched.

Turnip Head wrote:She also had a chance to hop onto the Made bandwagon on the day she (FZ) was getting the most heat, yet she resisted. That earned her some more goodwill from me, because I think a baddie would have wanted to shift focus anywhere else she could in that moment, and it's not like it would have been difficult for her or anyone else to fake a suspicion of Made.

She voted bea to tie it with herself once Made had 6 votes.

Another thing I don't get: The "I think a baddie would XXXX." I have hosted far too many games to be able to tell you what Mafioso would do in a given situation. What I can tell you is that it differs from player to player, and that it differs from situation to situation. Speculating exactly what a bad guy would do in a given situation, to me, is not helpful (especially if you tell everybody in the thread what it is you THINK a bad guy would do in a given situation).

Turnip Head wrote:I do think there's a chance she is Yotsuba, based on her reactions to both BWT's death and Made's team-claim. But if that's the case, I think she's working toward a detective victory as long as it doesn't interfere with her other goals. Her Kira-hunting seems genuine to me.

I think I demonstrated that she is not non-Kira Yotsuba. Further evidence backing up my view is that Russ didn't check her as Yotsuba. He came out strongly and swiftly against her the day he died. What do you make of that? I've been doing some math, but I've been hesitant to present it.

Turnip Head wrote:While you made some good points about her inconsistencies and contradictions, it wasn't enough to sway me into thinking she was bad. I admit I could be getting completely fooled. But that's where I'm at right now.

Thank you. And again I'm sorry Mr. Shinigami. If I have to vote for you again sometime soon, no hard feelings, right?

#5792

Epignosis wrote:I don't get this "style" business. With a few exceptions, I have never seen anyone who wasn't an utter noob play according to a style when he or she was bad. That's why that, for me, when people start talking about their style, I question it. Very few people have a consistent style across the board with very few tells.

I can elaborate on this point then. I think FZ views something she calls "emotional appeals" exclusively as a baddie tactic. I think she views it this way when she is a civvie, definitely. But also when she's a baddie, I think she's hesitant to make these kinds of appeals because of how she would perceive it as a civvie, and thus how she would think others would perceive it when she's a baddie. The "fuck you all" seemed to come from a genuine place of frustration, completely off script. But I don't think that frustration stemmed from being "found out". I think she was just tired of fighting for her life. I've been there before as a civvie.

Epignosis wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:She also had a chance to hop onto the Made bandwagon on the day she (FZ) was getting the most heat, yet she resisted. That earned her some more goodwill from me, because I think a baddie would have wanted to shift focus anywhere else she could in that moment, and it's not like it would have been difficult for her or anyone else to fake a suspicion of Made.
She voted bea to tie it with herself once Made had 6 votes.

A fair enough point.

Epignosis wrote:I think I demonstrated that she is not non-Kira Yotsuba. Further evidence backing up my view is that Russ didn't check her as Yotsuba. He came out strongly and swiftly against her the day he died. What do you make of that? I've been doing some math, but I've been hesitant to present it.

I'll have to go back and look for your demonstration, I must have missed it. As for Russ... while I want to trust his word, I think that Russ would have had to check FZ on 2 - 3 separate occasions to feel any sort of certainty about her role. Russ also made a case on Made that had me convinced he knew something about Made's role, but Made was Yotsuba. As much as I trust Russ himself, I'm afraid I don't know what to do with any information he gained, without knowing how much effort he put into checking his suspects. A single check would not be enough to determine anything, IMO. I haven't done the math here... do you think Russ may have checked FZ more than once?

Epignosis wrote:Thank you. And again I'm sorry Mr. Shinigami. If I have to vote for you again sometime soon, no hard feelings, right?

I have to admit I'm a bit irked that you have suddenly laid off the silent treatment :P But no, no hard feelings at all.

#5793

boo wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:I not sure who to vote for yet. I'm going to think about it, and come back to vote later.

Does anyone else find it strange that Made forgot the one of the Sympathizers was dead? It almost makes me wonder if he could be Yotsuba and their secret win condition isn't effected by having the Sympathizers dead.
Ok, well. I did a read of Bass now.

Of 50 posts, this is the only one I want to quote, but first, most of his posts are:
1) Telling us he's getting caught up.
2) Telling us he has caught up.
3) Saying goodbye to the person who gets killed.
4) Telling us he's currently busy and well get caught up later.
5) Quoting people and offering a one or two sentence thought.
6) Quoting people he agrees with and using their reason to vote.
7) Voting without quoting, and just vaguely saying he agrees with the suspicion.

So, bass, questions for you:
1) Can you name the 3 people your most suspicious of and think you will vote for today.
2) Without quoting people, can you give reasons why you think those 3 people are the most suspicious? And I do mean reasons, not just saying Person A, Person B, and Person C, because they're suspicious.
3) We know you were right that Made was Yotsuba. Do you still think the reason Made seemed to have forgot a Sympathizer was dead was because it wasn't important to his win condition?

Well my top three are
1. TH
2. MM
3. The llama

I might be wrong or missed somethings in the thread because of how crazy RL has been and how crazy this game has been but those are the top 3.

The reason for the top two is because of them surviving the lynches. I know their are roles that aren't kiras that can survive but why should we just give them a free pass because of that.

The llama because he asked a question that made me raise my eye brow. he asked who would kill S~V~S and LC. It made me raise my brow because I asked almost the same question in zelda mafia only I asked, who would kill S~V~S and MP? The answer was lama so I think its possible that he would take those players out early here.

With made I think it might make sense because we don't know what their win conditions are.

#5794

My thinking about Russ requires a drink. I will have a bourbon with a twist on the rocks tonight. Something a little different, like my perspective: Not too much of a deviation, but a slight change. Plus we are lousy with lemons. I should have offered you a lemon instead.

Give me a few moments, and I'll post again.

#5795

boo wrote:Done reading Boomslang.

He was more active up until Day 3 (in comparison to zeek and Bass). He actually offered his own thoughts, was a part of the discussion, etc. Not all stuff I agree with (and stuff I was suspicious of him at the time for), but at least actual stuff. Since Day 3, he has mostly dropped off, making a few posts during each cycle.

Could just be because he got busy, but the thread was the busiest in the early game, and has (somewhat) toned down since, so it's a little odd to me that given how active he was able to be when things were moving fast, he has been barely able to keep up at all since things slowed down.

For in-game conclusions, it makes me wonder if he got BTSC during or around N3, which would mean he could be Misa or Rem, and he dropped off posting in thread, because most of his activity and attention went to things in BTSC instead.

So, Boom:
If it isn't you, who would you say your top contenders for Misa and Rem are?

Well, I'm not either of those roles, so we'll need to search for new contenders. I did get busier IRL around Day 3, but I also felt like the thread got less interesting. For example, I completely tuned out the puzzles; others were jumping on that, and they took up so much space. There was also a lot of pointless banter between TH and a number of people. (sorry TH, but you know it's true.) I've been keeping up to a good extent, just feel like I've had less to add.

You do make interesting points regarding the possibility that lower posters could be more involved in BTSC; in that case, Mata or Bass present themselves as possibilities for either Rem or Misa. Maybe more likely Misa, because I feel Rem would be more aggressive with the Shinigami immunity. Otherwise... possibly juliets, whose post number stayed up after Day 3 but whose post length seemed to shorten fairly significantly?

#5796

My analysis has a couple of reasonable assumptions in place.

First, I will assume that Russ was Mogi.

Second, I will assume that Mogi's incorrect check will yield a result containing all other possible roles (26 total), not just living ones.

++++

There is a 50% chance Russ got FZ.'s role and it came back bad and he voted for her. That's half.

++++

There is a 50% chance Russ got an incorrect role.

There are 26 available roles: 11 detectives, 7 Yotsuba, 7 Kira sympathizers, and Sidoh.

++++

We can rule out some of these, because, even if Russ got a lynched role, it would be obvious to him that it was a false read. So that's 1 detective, 2 Kira sympathizers, and 2 Yotsuba out.

++++

So now there are 21 available roles: 10 detectives, 5 Yotsuba, 5 Kira sympathizers, and Sidoh.

That's 21.

++++

Remember, the question is this: Under what set of circumstances would Russtifinko 180 and vote early for someone?

++++

Now then, if Mogi got a wrong read, then there would be a 48% chance he would get a detective read, a 24% Yotsuba, a 24% Kira sympathizer, and then a 4% chance of Sidoh.

++++

Conclusion: Russtifinko would have had to fail a 50% role check, and THEN he would have to get in that 24% Kira check, in order for him to be wrong about FZ.

My point here is that the people poo-pooing Russ' check as "only 50%" are not being rational. There is a small window that Russ checked FZ., got a wrong answer, and that answer was Kira.

++++

For those in need of a more concrete example:

Step 1: To prove Russ' check wrong, you need to roll one die. If you get 3, 2, of 1, you learn that FZ. is Kira. If you get 4, 5, or 6, go to step 2.

Step 2: Roll a 100 sided die. If you get 24 or lower, then FZ. is Kira. If you get 25 or higher, then FZ. is some other role.

In other words, there is a 12% chance Russ got a false Kira check on FZ.

Someone check my math. It's 50% x 24% which is 12%.

Yes?

#5797

guys, let me just review my rl while in this game. It's all in the thread but not all in one place. I started out out of town. Then, I got very ill for two weeks, then I had a death in the family. Through it all I have tried to keep up and post regularly but there are bound to be some times when I posted irregularly or not at great length. Still, I managed to stay ahead of other posters but not nearly in line with those who post hundreds of posts. I will never be that player, I just don't post like that. I had 161 posts in GOC where I was a civ and won and that game ended somewhere around night 13. Here I have 144 and its day 8. I'm posting at my normal rate.

#5798

juliets wrote:guys, let me just review my rl while in this game. It's all in the thread but not all in one place. I started out out of town. Then, I got very ill for two weeks, then I had a death in the family. Through it all I have tried to keep up and post regularly but there are bound to be some times when I posted irregularly or not at great length. Still, I managed to stay ahead of other posters but not nearly in line with those who post hundreds of posts. I will never be that player, I just don't post like that. I had 161 posts in GOC where I was a civ and won and that game ended somewhere around night 13. Here I have 144 and its day 8. I'm posting at my normal rate.

You're Yotsuba. No shame in it.

What do you think of those numbers?

#5799

I think that makes sense Epi. I think. I'm gonna keep trying to wrap my head around it.

#5800

In other words:

There is a 78% chance Russ was right about FZ. being bad.

It was never 50%.

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous