MINECRAFT - DAY SIX

#501

S~V~S wrote:
He-Man wrote:Also epig didn't really fight or deny the suspicion on day one it looks like he knew he wasn't being lynched.
This is true. Having done some rereading of the time right before the poll ended this AM (I was trying to post on phone and got a zillion linkitises, I missed a lot of what happened at the time), I have to agree with this, he really didn't. So while a frame is still possible, the possibility seems more remote to me now. Although it is very possible he could be the civ switcher, or just timing is in play here about his lack of defense, and it is still a frame

His last few posts really are pretty civvie feeling to me, so

It still feels to me that with the votes spread as widely as they were, and having reread, that the drop on Epig at the end felt like a save. He really did not seem as suspish as some of the other vote getters, all of the non boring discussion was about other people, them the boom gets dropped on Epi when it was starting to look like Llama was going down.

I was really shocked Epi even was the one with the highest votes because it felt random to me or maybe even planned by baddies. I am more leaning towards someone switched the lynch that felt he was innocent or that he was maybe the sword or had an ability. I haven't felt any uneasiness about Epi just yet....

#502

Epignosis wrote:
He-Man wrote:Roxy I am precious lol also epig made that comment about making him vote me not snow dog

Epig llama had enough attention you had none he was trying to take heat off of him you made your comment to blend. This is why I aimed my suspicion at you and not llama
I think you and thellama73 are together. I think you wanted to absorb my vote, since he had, in your own words, "enough heat."

If you're bad, there's no such thing as enough heat.

So you think llama is bad but the lynch got switched to MP a civ? Wassup Wid that?

That switch was not one a civvie would use IMO. No way no how!

#503

He-Man wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
He-Man wrote:Roxy I am precious lol also epig made that comment about making him vote me not snow dog

Epig llama had enough attention you had none he was trying to take heat off of him you made your comment to blend. This is why I aimed my suspicion at you and not llama
I think you and thellama73 are together. I think you wanted to absorb my vote, since he had, in your own words, "enough heat."

If you're bad, there's no such thing as enough heat.
So you think llama is bad but the lynch got switched to MP a civ? Wassup Wid that?

That switch was not one a civvie would use IMO. No way no how!

No one knew MP was a civ. Except the mafia of course, so it could still have been either. Or maybe something else entirely.

#504

Russtifinko wrote:Wow. RIP, MP.

Boogs, I think your remark about vote manipulation was astute, but to me a lynch switch seems much more likely because MP only had 2 votes and being able to manipulate votes that much seems unlikely to me.

Regarding switches, if it was a baddie switch to save Epi it was probably a poor idea, since it seems likely to lead to a relynch tomorrow. I think a frame is slightly more likely. A civ switch by diamond sword seems nearly impossible to me. Unless there's unmentioned civ BTSC going on, no one else would have used that power to save Epi because they couldn't have known whether he was civ. That would mean Epi himself was Diamond Sword and switched the lynch to MP instead of the person he voted for, llama, and instead of stopping the lynch, which would seem smarter for an experienced player like him.

So in short, I think the baddies definitely caused this, though whether it's because Epi is one of them or to frame him I'm personally not sure yet

I am having a hard time seeing this as a frame-up on Epignosis by the baddies. Using up their one lynch switch Day 1 just feels like a very risky move to make unless they were saving one of their own. I agree though that it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I would like to read back and see who first suggested a possible frame-up. I also don't see this as having been done by the Diamond Sword because using the stop would make much more sense than taking a chance of switching a lynch onto a fellow civvie.

Day 1 Voting Order:
1. thellama (DP)
2. BWT (Snow Dog)
3. reywaS (thellama) 1
4. Ambray (BWT)
5. He-Man (Epignosis) 1
6. Boogs (Snow Dog)
7. blindfaeth (MP)
8. Flyin' High (Epignosis) 2
9. spaghetti (He-Man)
10. DP (spaghetti)
11. S~V~S (thellama) 2
12. Elohcin (DP)
13. LT (MP)
14. Russtifinko (thellama) 3
15. Roxy (Epignosis) 3
16. MP (Epignosis) 4
17. Epignosis (thellama) 4
18. indiglo (Epignosis) 5
19. Snow Dog (reywaS)
The numbers after thellama and Epignosis votes show how many votes each had as the lynch votes came in.
**I put together this vote order from my screencap of the poll. If anyone sees any mistakes please let me know!**

I think it's interesting to see how neck and neck the votes were between thellama and Epignosis. I still feel like Epignosis is mafia. I know it was suggested that the last minute votes for Epignosis might have been a save for llama, but indiglo said she was voting in the thread for Epignosis before MP even mentioned it at all so MP was actually the last to decide out of the blue to vote for Epignosis (even though he got his vote in just before indi). And we know that MP is civvie so he couldn't have been trying to save thellama with his vote.

The person who really stands out to me as peculiar is Elohcin. I didn't like thellama's rationale for voting DP and I thought Elohcin's was even weaker (just voting the lowest poster). There was tons of discussion taking place Day 1 and to vote the lowest poster felt like a cop-out to me.

I will try to read back through the thread some today, but I'm home sick and will probably spend more time curled up in bed, than in front of my computer.

#505

After sleeping on it, I am more convinced that the switch was an attempt to frame Epignosis.
The baddies had to know that saving Rob would cast suspicion on him and that he would be a likely target for the next lynch. So, if Rob is bad, they would likely get one baddie lynch and one civvie lynch (MP).
But on the other hand, the baddies know who all the good guys are, so if they switched the vote from one civvie to another, and then Rob gets lynched as a response, they end up with two dead civvies and no dead baddies, starting the game off with a two person advantage. It makes me really anxious about voting for Rob today.

#506

Boogs wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
He-Man wrote:Also epig didn't really fight or deny the suspicion on day one it looks like he knew he wasn't being lynched.
This is true. Having done some rereading of the time right before the poll ended this AM (I was trying to post on phone and got a zillion linkitises, I missed a lot of what happened at the time), I have to agree with this, he really didn't. So while a frame is still possible, the possibility seems more remote to me now. Although it is very possible he could be the civ switcher, or just timing is in play here about his lack of defense, and it is still a frame

His last few posts really are pretty civvie feeling to me, so

It still feels to me that with the votes spread as widely as they were, and having reread, that the drop on Epig at the end felt like a save. He really did not seem as suspish as some of the other vote getters, all of the non boring discussion was about other people, them the boom gets dropped on Epi when it was starting to look like Llama was going down.
I was really shocked Epi even was the one with the highest votes because it felt random to me or maybe even planned by baddies. I am more leaning towards someone switched the lynch that felt he was innocent or that he was maybe the sword or had an ability. I haven't felt any uneasiness about Epi just yet....

No one would switch the lynch this early for just a 'feeling' that somebody is civvie.

thellama73 wrote:I like how spread out the voting is so far and that there appears to be no bandwagon effect. It fits in with my suspicion that the baddies are hiding among the low posters.

This post really, really struck out to me. The more I read what others are bringing up against llama, the more it makes sense to me.
Now I'm waring with myself, because llama is relatively new to mafia, but he has still played 2 games so should've picked up the mechanics by now, perhaps not tactics. So should he know that no it's a terrible thing to spread out the votes, because it means the baddies can manipulate the vote?
This post just doesn't sit with me.

Regarding the lynch, I won't be surprised if it's a frame and it turns out the lynch leaders are civvies. What was the last game I played?? Whatever it was, I was a baddie on a team with SVS who switched the lynch D1 and it meant the thread thought the lynch leaders were baddies and had been saved and the civvies ended up wasting lynches.
Don't want to see a repeat performance here, so I am wary.

PS. Ruff, do I know you by another name??

#507

Llama if you are correct why not get rid of you instead of MP??

#508

Snow Dog wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Going to bed now but I wasn't really here at the end i was watching The Dark Night. Amazed I wasn't lynched but glad I'm not.

Never thought MP or Epignosis were bad but hard to tell. Not convinced Llama is bad either. Had to decide between voting He Man and reywaS and chose the latter.
Snow Dog, my gut is still slightly civ on you, but things like this in the thread look really bad to me. Really, you weren't here at the end despite being the last vote? And I understand you not seeing llama or Epi as particularly bad, but it is strange to me that your top 2 candidates were both players you had had personal arguments with before. I know you were very busy with them, but none of the other discussions going on gave you any ideas whatsoever? Beware tunnel vision when things get personal.

He-Man, the vote order is on page 11, I believe. Roxy posted it. Do you have any suspicions besides Epi at the moment? I know you're convinced he's bad, and he may well be, but I'm a bit worried about tunnel vision there as well.

Linki with snowie: that's fair about your vote. I sympathize with wanting to protect yourself. Anything about rey's behavior (votes etc) ping you besides the fact that he was suspicious of you?
His vehement attack on me in defence of Roxy seemed like he was likely bad to me, but He-Man even more so. His case against Epi seems to me to be a bit crazy. Comparing his playing this game to hoew he mod's another? Come on.

vehement attacks? You mean the posts where I was suspicious of you? At what point did they become vehement attacks? You speak in hyperbole, much? LOL

You do realize that this is the very first time in this entire game that you've called me suspicious, right?

About the lynch, I think it's one of two things: The final vote tally was Epig 5 votes to llama's 4 votes yet MP gets lynched. Two possibilities are they either Epig and llama are both baddies and that's why it was switched to MP, or epig is civ and llama is bad...and llama's team switched to MP for two reasons. One was the close vote...perhaps they didn't want to risk llama getting lynched due to vote manipulation. Two to set up Epig to get lynched next instead of llama. It is possible that Epig is bad and llama is not, also. Certainly, lots to discuss between now and the next lynch.

#509

Ambray wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I like how spread out the voting is so far and that there appears to be no bandwagon effect. It fits in with my suspicion that the baddies are hiding among the low posters.
This post really, really struck out to me. The more I read what others are bringing up against llama, the more it makes sense to me.
Now I'm waring with myself, because llama is relatively new to mafia, but he has still played 2 games so should've picked up the mechanics by now, perhaps not tactics. So should he know that no it's a terrible thing to spread out the votes, because it means the baddies can manipulate the vote?
This post just doesn't sit with me.

I can certainly see your point here, and it did occur to me that the baddies could vote late and manipulate the results, but from my perspective as someone who expected to get a lot of votes, it was comforting to see that I was not the clear favorite. I also think it's kind of boring when everyone votes the same, and so for purely a-strategic reasons, I liked seeing the suspicion spread around. Makes for a more interesting game, IMO.

linki: he man, because I am already under a lot of suspicion and will probably be voted off soon anyway.

#510

Why do people think the lynch switch would be more likely to go to the person with the second least number of votes? If it were me, I would switch to someone no one suspects, knowing that they will be harder to kill off later than someone who is already getting votes.

#511

thellama73 wrote:
Ambray wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I like how spread out the voting is so far and that there appears to be no bandwagon effect. It fits in with my suspicion that the baddies are hiding among the low posters.
This post really, really struck out to me. The more I read what others are bringing up against llama, the more it makes sense to me.
Now I'm waring with myself, because llama is relatively new to mafia, but he has still played 2 games so should've picked up the mechanics by now, perhaps not tactics. So should he know that no it's a terrible thing to spread out the votes, because it means the baddies can manipulate the vote?
This post just doesn't sit with me.
I can certainly see your point here, and it did occur to me that the baddies could vote late and manipulate the results, but from my perspective as someone who expected to get a lot of votes, it was comforting to see that I was not the clear favorite. I also think it's kind of boring when everyone votes the same, and so for purely a-strategic reasons, I liked seeing the suspicion spread around. Makes for a more interesting game, IMO.

linki: he man, because I am already under a lot of suspicion and will probably be voted off soon anyway.

A more interesting game? You can have many suspicions, doesn't mean everyone has to vote it.
There is a point to this game, you know. Civvies try to get rid of baddies and vice versa. Kinda need to play stategicly.

If you have just said your first sentence, I would've said "okay, makes sense to me"...but no.

#512

I too am finding that post odd now it's been bought up again sofi.

#513

I really want a rezz still! I'm really alone in the zombie bar, no one is here.

#514

Ambray wrote:
A more interesting game? You can have many suspicions, doesn't mean everyone has to vote it.
There is a point to this game, you know. Civvies try to get rid of baddies and vice versa. Kinda need to play stategicly.

If you have just said your first sentence, I would've said "okay, makes sense to me"...but no.

I play to have fun. If I manage to win while having fun, great, but fun is my priority. I happen to think it is more fun when suspicion and votes are spread around than when there are a series of unanimous lynch votes.

#515

If I were playing a purely strategic game, I would have made exactly three posts by now, like DP, and no one would now be suspecting me, but a purely strategic game is not an interesting game, at least not for me.

#516

reywaS wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Going to bed now but I wasn't really here at the end i was watching The Dark Night. Amazed I wasn't lynched but glad I'm not.

Never thought MP or Epignosis were bad but hard to tell. Not convinced Llama is bad either. Had to decide between voting He Man and reywaS and chose the latter.
Snow Dog, my gut is still slightly civ on you, but things like this in the thread look really bad to me. Really, you weren't here at the end despite being the last vote? And I understand you not seeing llama or Epi as particularly bad, but it is strange to me that your top 2 candidates were both players you had had personal arguments with before. I know you were very busy with them, but none of the other discussions going on gave you any ideas whatsoever? Beware tunnel vision when things get personal.

He-Man, the vote order is on page 11, I believe. Roxy posted it. Do you have any suspicions besides Epi at the moment? I know you're convinced he's bad, and he may well be, but I'm a bit worried about tunnel vision there as well.

Linki with snowie: that's fair about your vote. I sympathize with wanting to protect yourself. Anything about rey's behavior (votes etc) ping you besides the fact that he was suspicious of you?
His vehement attack on me in defence of Roxy seemed like he was likely bad to me, but He-Man even more so. His case against Epi seems to me to be a bit crazy. Comparing his playing this game to hoew he mod's another? Come on.
vehement attacks? You mean the posts where I was suspicious of you? At what point did they become vehement attacks? You speak in hyperbole, much? LOL

You do realize that this is the very first time in this entire game that you've called me suspicious, right?

Yes, what of it?

Vehement is how I remember it. But maybe replace that with continuous, harrasing and tedious? I kept answering from my point and you wouldn't accept it. To me that is suspicious.

#517

So you admit that it's hyperbole? At least you can admit that. lol

#518

reywaS wrote:So you admit that it's hyperbole? At least you can admit that. lol

I hate hyperbole. It's the worst thing in the whole world!

#519

You just sound like you are taking events of the past and changing them however you want to fit into your narrative. I really, really think you are bad.....if not on the bad team, then you are the rouge.

linki w/ llama:

#520

*rogue*

#521

Flyin' High wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Wow. RIP, MP.

Boogs, I think your remark about vote manipulation was astute, but to me a lynch switch seems much more likely because MP only had 2 votes and being able to manipulate votes that much seems unlikely to me.

Regarding switches, if it was a baddie switch to save Epi it was probably a poor idea, since it seems likely to lead to a relynch tomorrow. I think a frame is slightly more likely. A civ switch by diamond sword seems nearly impossible to me. Unless there's unmentioned civ BTSC going on, no one else would have used that power to save Epi because they couldn't have known whether he was civ. That would mean Epi himself was Diamond Sword and switched the lynch to MP instead of the person he voted for, llama, and instead of stopping the lynch, which would seem smarter for an experienced player like him.

So in short, I think the baddies definitely caused this, though whether it's because Epi is one of them or to frame him I'm personally not sure yet
I am having a hard time seeing this as a frame-up on Epignosis by the baddies. Using up their one lynch switch Day 1 just feels like a very risky move to make unless they were saving one of their own. I agree though that it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I would like to read back and see who first suggested a possible frame-up. I also don't see this as having been done by the Diamond Sword because using the stop would make much more sense than taking a chance of switching a lynch onto a fellow civvie.

Day 1 Voting Order:
1. thellama (DP)
2. BWT (Snow Dog)
3. reywaS (thellama) 1
4. Ambray (BWT)
5. He-Man (Epignosis) 1
6. Boogs (Snow Dog)
7. blindfaeth (MP)
8. Flyin' High (Epignosis) 2
9. spaghetti (He-Man)
10. DP (spaghetti)
11. S~V~S (thellama) 2
12. Elohcin (DP)
13. LT (MP)
14. Russtifinko (thellama) 3
15. Roxy (Epignosis) 3
16. MP (Epignosis) 4
17. Epignosis (thellama) 4
18. indiglo (Epignosis) 5
19. Snow Dog (reywaS)
The numbers after thellama and Epignosis votes show how many votes each had as the lynch votes came in.
**I put together this vote order from my screencap of the poll. If anyone sees any mistakes please let me know!**

I think it's interesting to see how neck and neck the votes were between thellama and Epignosis. I still feel like Epignosis is mafia. I know it was suggested that the last minute votes for Epignosis might have been a save for llama, but indiglo said she was voting in the thread for Epignosis before MP even mentioned it at all so MP was actually the last to decide out of the blue to vote for Epignosis (even though he got his vote in just before indi). And we know that MP is civvie so he couldn't have been trying to save thellama with his vote.
The person who really stands out to me as peculiar is Elohcin. I didn't like thellama's rationale for voting DP and I thought Elohcin's was even weaker (just voting the lowest poster). There was tons of discussion taking place Day 1 and to vote the lowest poster felt like a cop-out to me.

I will try to read back through the thread some today, but I'm home sick and will probably spend more time curled up in bed, than in front of my computer.

Thanks for the analysis, FH! I agree that Elohcin looks bad here. I went so far as to vote llama, mainly because of his DP vote, and she did the same thing. Llama at least offered a rationale for his vote, even if it was a poor one in my opinion.

As for the current discussion on llama, I think if Epi was not framed then they're likely teammates. If he was framed, however, I don't think it gives us any info on llama. If I were bad and saving a teammate I'd keep other civ vote-getters alive to keep suspicion divided. I still don't trust llama, but this doesn't make him look any worse to me.

What really puzzles me is why MP? He got 2 votes, so he was drawing some suspicion himself. I think something he was saying must have threatened them somehow, but I can't for the life of me figure out what it could be. He did keep saying toward the end that ship was a baddie option in the poll, so maybe ship voters wanted to silence him? As FH noted he was also the last to decide to vote Epi, so if Epi is bad maybe it was a revenge thing. They could have even randomized. Anyway, any other theories or thoughts on why MP got it would be greatly appreciated.

One last thing: I wouldn't give too much weight to vite order for that poll. It matters some obviously, but lots of people voted at once. I remember being surprised that llama already had 2 when my vite went through, and his second vote came 5 before mine. So there was a big clump there

#522

Oh, I meant Russ, not Ruff. xD

So..

PS. Russ, do I know you by another name? xD

#523

Russtifinko wrote: Thanks for the analysis, FH! I agree that Elohcin looks bad here. I went so far as to vote llama, mainly because of his DP vote, and she did the same thing. Llama at least offered a rationale for his vote, even if it was a poor one in my opinion.

Oh, I freely acknowledge that my rationale for voting DP was poor, but I contend that the rationale for voting for anyone on Day 1 is going to be poor, as there is not enough data to go on. My vote was a guess, just as everyone else's vote was a guess. At least I didn't randomize like DP did.

I also suspect Elohcin and right now she is probably the most likely candidate for my vote (assuming I survive the night.)

#524

thellama73 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote: Thanks for the analysis, FH! I agree that Elohcin looks bad here. I went so far as to vote llama, mainly because of his DP vote, and she did the same thing. Llama at least offered a rationale for his vote, even if it was a poor one in my opinion.
Oh, I freely acknowledge that my rationale for voting DP was poor, but I contend that the rationale for voting for anyone on Day 1 is going to be poor, as there is not enough data to go on. My vote was a guess, just as everyone else's vote was a guess. At least I didn't randomize like DP did.

I also suspect Elohcin and right now she is probably the most likely candidate for my vote (assuming I survive the night.)

Why do you suspect Elohcin? Forgive me if you've answered this already. Why Elohcin and not Epig?

#525

reywaS wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote: Thanks for the analysis, FH! I agree that Elohcin looks bad here. I went so far as to vote llama, mainly because of his DP vote, and she did the same thing. Llama at least offered a rationale for his vote, even if it was a poor one in my opinion.
Oh, I freely acknowledge that my rationale for voting DP was poor, but I contend that the rationale for voting for anyone on Day 1 is going to be poor, as there is not enough data to go on. My vote was a guess, just as everyone else's vote was a guess. At least I didn't randomize like DP did.

I also suspect Elohcin and right now she is probably the most likely candidate for my vote (assuming I survive the night.)
Why do you suspect Elohcin? Forgive me if you've answered this already. Why Elohcin and not Epig?

She seems very willing to go along with what other people say without much analysis of her own. I couldn't understand why she followed my DP vote. The way she has been echoing Rob looks weird. It's possible that she's a civvie with secret BTSC, but at the moment I don't trust her.

#526

I'm going to assume this Rob fella people keep talking about is Epig..

#527

Ambray wrote:I'm going to assume this Rob fella people keep talking about is Epig..

indeed.

#528

reywaS wrote:You just sound like you are taking events of the past and changing them however you want to fit into your narrative. I really, really think you are bad.....if not on the bad team, then you are the rouge.

linki w/ llama:

I don't admit it was hyperbole. It seemed vehement at the time. It might be a slight exageration but I have created no narrative. the evidence is all posted. And because of my personal style I cannot be a civ? Interesting mister baddie.

#529

Perhaps I was the one being vehement?

#530

Snow Dog wrote:
reywaS wrote:You just sound like you are taking events of the past and changing them however you want to fit into your narrative. I really, really think you are bad.....if not on the bad team, then you are the rouge.

linki w/ llama:
I don't admit it was hyperbole. It seemed vehement at the time. It might be a slight exageration but I have created no narrative. the evidence is all posted. And because of my personal style I cannot be a civ? Interesting mister baddie.

It has nothing to do with your style of play.

#531

Ambray wrote:Oh, I meant Russ, not Ruff. xD

So..

PS. Russ, do I know you by another name? xD

Nope! This I'd my third mafia game, and first forum. Nice to meet you though!

#532

reywaS wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
reywaS wrote:You just sound like you are taking events of the past and changing them however you want to fit into your narrative. I really, really think you are bad.....if not on the bad team, then you are the rouge.

linki w/ llama:
I don't admit it was hyperbole. It seemed vehement at the time. It might be a slight exageration but I have created no narrative. the evidence is all posted. And because of my personal style I cannot be a civ? Interesting mister baddie.
It has nothing to do with your style of play.

So the first part and second part of your post are not related? Ok. Well you are more than welcome to vote for me next lynch.

#533

I have a feeling that baddies didnt have anything to do with MP getting lynched. I'm more inclined to think that Epi possibly had a lynch protection from somewhere (possibly from a role or from some item acquired) although i think it has to be part of the role because it seems weird that he would have received an item so early in the game. Unless it was a result of the day 0 vote. it seems like a waste for a baddie team to use a lynch switch so early, unless he was the only baddie member able to use the lynch switch, so thats an option too.

#534

Flyin' High wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Wow. RIP, MP.

Boogs, I think your remark about vote manipulation was astute, but to me a lynch switch seems much more likely because MP only had 2 votes and being able to manipulate votes that much seems unlikely to me.

Regarding switches, if it was a baddie switch to save Epi it was probably a poor idea, since it seems likely to lead to a relynch tomorrow. I think a frame is slightly more likely. A civ switch by diamond sword seems nearly impossible to me. Unless there's unmentioned civ BTSC going on, no one else would have used that power to save Epi because they couldn't have known whether he was civ. That would mean Epi himself was Diamond Sword and switched the lynch to MP instead of the person he voted for, llama, and instead of stopping the lynch, which would seem smarter for an experienced player like him.

So in short, I think the baddies definitely caused this, though whether it's because Epi is one of them or to frame him I'm personally not sure yet
I am having a hard time seeing this as a frame-up on Epignosis by the baddies. Using up their one lynch switch Day 1 just feels like a very risky move to make unless they were saving one of their own. I agree though that it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I would like to read back and see who first suggested a possible frame-up. I also don't see this as having been done by the Diamond Sword because using the stop would make much more sense than taking a chance of switching a lynch onto a fellow civvie.

Day 1 Voting Order:
1. thellama (DP)
2. BWT (Snow Dog)
3. reywaS (thellama) 1
4. Ambray (BWT)
5. He-Man (Epignosis) 1
6. Boogs (Snow Dog)
7. blindfaeth (MP)
8. Flyin' High (Epignosis) 2
9. spaghetti (He-Man)
10. DP (spaghetti)
11. S~V~S (thellama) 2
12. Elohcin (DP)
13. LT (MP)
14. Russtifinko (thellama) 3
15. Roxy (Epignosis) 3
16. MP (Epignosis) 4
17. Epignosis (thellama) 4
18. indiglo (Epignosis) 5
19. Snow Dog (reywaS)
The numbers after thellama and Epignosis votes show how many votes each had as the lynch votes came in.
**I put together this vote order from my screencap of the poll. If anyone sees any mistakes please let me know!**

I think it's interesting to see how neck and neck the votes were between thellama and Epignosis. I still feel like Epignosis is mafia. I know it was suggested that the last minute votes for Epignosis might have been a save for llama, but indiglo said she was voting in the thread for Epignosis before MP even mentioned it at all so MP was actually the last to decide out of the blue to vote for Epignosis (even though he got his vote in just before indi). And we know that MP is civvie so he couldn't have been trying to save thellama with his vote.

The person who really stands out to me as peculiar is Elohcin. I didn't like thellama's rationale for voting DP and I thought Elohcin's was even weaker (just voting the lowest poster). There was tons of discussion taking place Day 1 and to vote the lowest poster felt like a cop-out to me.

I will try to read back through the thread some today, but I'm home sick and will probably spend more time curled up in bed, than in front of my computer.

Same wavelength here. I don't think the mafia would use a switch day 1 unless they were saving a teammate, that's just because saving guarantees it buys you another day and not saving could backfire. But I'm not ruling out because if I'm not mistaken SVS and I just did this very thing as baddies in a game on RM.

Anyway, I agree those votes were odd/cop outs, there was plenty of discussion and suspicion flying around and they just kind of felt forced.

#535

blindfaeth wrote:
Flyin' High wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Wow. RIP, MP.

Boogs, I think your remark about vote manipulation was astute, but to me a lynch switch seems much more likely because MP only had 2 votes and being able to manipulate votes that much seems unlikely to me.

Regarding switches, if it was a baddie switch to save Epi it was probably a poor idea, since it seems likely to lead to a relynch tomorrow. I think a frame is slightly more likely. A civ switch by diamond sword seems nearly impossible to me. Unless there's unmentioned civ BTSC going on, no one else would have used that power to save Epi because they couldn't have known whether he was civ. That would mean Epi himself was Diamond Sword and switched the lynch to MP instead of the person he voted for, llama, and instead of stopping the lynch, which would seem smarter for an experienced player like him.

So in short, I think the baddies definitely caused this, though whether it's because Epi is one of them or to frame him I'm personally not sure yet
I am having a hard time seeing this as a frame-up on Epignosis by the baddies. Using up their one lynch switch Day 1 just feels like a very risky move to make unless they were saving one of their own. I agree though that it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I would like to read back and see who first suggested a possible frame-up. I also don't see this as having been done by the Diamond Sword because using the stop would make much more sense than taking a chance of switching a lynch onto a fellow civvie.

Day 1 Voting Order:
1. thellama (DP)
2. BWT (Snow Dog)
3. reywaS (thellama) 1
4. Ambray (BWT)
5. He-Man (Epignosis) 1
6. Boogs (Snow Dog)
7. blindfaeth (MP)
8. Flyin' High (Epignosis) 2
9. spaghetti (He-Man)
10. DP (spaghetti)
11. S~V~S (thellama) 2
12. Elohcin (DP)
13. LT (MP)
14. Russtifinko (thellama) 3
15. Roxy (Epignosis) 3
16. MP (Epignosis) 4
17. Epignosis (thellama) 4
18. indiglo (Epignosis) 5
19. Snow Dog (reywaS)
The numbers after thellama and Epignosis votes show how many votes each had as the lynch votes came in.
**I put together this vote order from my screencap of the poll. If anyone sees any mistakes please let me know!**

I think it's interesting to see how neck and neck the votes were between thellama and Epignosis. I still feel like Epignosis is mafia. I know it was suggested that the last minute votes for Epignosis might have been a save for llama, but indiglo said she was voting in the thread for Epignosis before MP even mentioned it at all so MP was actually the last to decide out of the blue to vote for Epignosis (even though he got his vote in just before indi). And we know that MP is civvie so he couldn't have been trying to save thellama with his vote.

The person who really stands out to me as peculiar is Elohcin. I didn't like thellama's rationale for voting DP and I thought Elohcin's was even weaker (just voting the lowest poster). There was tons of discussion taking place Day 1 and to vote the lowest poster felt like a cop-out to me.

I will try to read back through the thread some today, but I'm home sick and will probably spend more time curled up in bed, than in front of my computer.
Same wavelength here. I don't think the mafia would use a switch day 1 unless they were saving a teammate, that's just because saving guarantees it buys you another day and not saving could backfire. But I'm not ruling out because if I'm not mistaken SVS and I just did this very thing as baddies in a game on RM.

Anyway, I agree those votes were odd/cop outs, there was plenty of discussion and suspicion flying around and they just kind of felt forced.

Agreed babe, which is why I felt weird about the votes when plenty of people were accusing others and then poll played out weird. I'm still fixed on there was some special thing from Day 0 or ability that affected the poll results. It could be possible Epi used an ability or had a lynch protection from some other Civ that trusts him.

#536

Meh,

I really just think it was the baddie switch. Whether it was to save him or frame him, is what's bothering me. All three of my teammates from the game I was talking about are present here. SVS, ambray and Rey. So they are certainly capable of coming up with the idea but having happened so recently and with all the teammates from that game here, is it too risky? Maybe, but I suppose I'll keep an eye on them. Unless Eli is the sword I can't see a reason why he'd switch, and like someone pointed out, he wasn't eyeing mp right, so that doesn't really add up. The main purpose of day 1 is to get information. Usually it ends in disaster and a civvie gets lynched, which is unfortunate. If you get a baddie, great, but otherwise the results of that first lynch give you circumstantial info. To have switched it makes everything muddied and creates confusion.

#537

I think the lynch protection angle is a possibility, but why would the lynch then switch to MP? Don't lynch protections usually mean the person with the next highest votes gets lynched instead? I still think a switch is the most probable.

#538

S~V~S wrote:Well crud, RIP MP Sad to see both you and your role go~

I am not sure whether I think Epi is bad or whether he was set up; it would be a bold move, but speed games are all about bold moves.

S~V~S wrote:
Roxy wrote:Aww too bad! RIP Socktastic!
I wonder who/how Epig was saved?
Yeah~ was it him/his team, or is he an innocent victim of a frame up? I could see it either way.

Just for the record, it was SVS who first introduced the idea that Epig was set up, including the rationale why mafia might do it. (Someone asked who was the first to bring up the idea, but now I don't remember who.)

Knowing this, and now hearing from 2 other players that they've just done that in a game with SVS... well let's say it gives me pause for thought. And something else I'll quote in a second...

#539

Meh. Now I can't find what else it was I wanted to quote.

#540

Sorry Snow Dog for confusing you with Epig.

And thanks for the response anyway Epig. Still your post don't give me a very civvie vibe.

SVS- I have re-read llama and tbs he wasbacking up Snow Dog for most of the day but he did bring up low posters first acting like there wasn't much else to go on.
He really did not care or respond to other when they mentioned this was absolutely normal behavior from Porcu.
He just posted and voted not waiting for a response from Porcu.
He basically backed up every person that was brought up for lynch except Reywas.
Then this morning he refused to respond to all of your queries and suspicions.

I do wonder, however, about this last lynch. Why it was not switched to llama. I feel like I am missing a piece to this puzzle.

When you first posted that you thought Epig was framed I had to wonder why you jumped immediately to this conclusion. You said at first you did not see the case and felt it was a baddie drive to Epig. Now you say you see the case on Epig though you still hold out it was a frame.

There is no way a civ would have switched this lynch this early in the game with no civ btsc. It is just too early to be so sure and use your one time power on a person you have no idea about.

On the other side of the coin as a baddie I wouldn't use it to save a civ at all. I would be greedy and save it for someone on my team. Which is what I think happened.They probs left llama b/c either he is a teammate (not likely but probable) or b/c he was/is under a ton of suspicion.

I firmly believe this switch had NOTHING to do with the D 0 poll.

So I am extremely torn about what to think and I hope others weigh in with their thoughts maybe the picture will be more clear.

#541

Haha yes Indi it was SVS who first brought up the frame job. It was FH who couldn't remember who said it first. <3

#542

Also I do agree with llama a switch is most likely. And a baddie switch at that .

#543

Roxy wrote: When you first posted that you thought Epig was framed I had to wonder why you jumped immediately to this conclusion. You said at first you did not see the case and felt it was a baddie drive to Epig. Now you say you see the case on Epig though you still hold out it was a frame.

I "ditto" this paragraph.

#544

@Roxy, that's no problem. I hope we can put any misunderstandings behind us.

@reywaS....why do you think I am a baddie or rogue?

@everyone else. I want to believe Epignosis is civ which is why I think he is framed, but of course that solely relies on that belief. Certainly it was a gamble if was the baddies trying to frame him. But maybe worthwhile to get two civvies in a row down.

#545

I think that the baddies switched this lynch because the civvie lynch switcher would have definitely used the stop lynch first.

As for it being used to set up Epignosis, interesting theory... not sure I buy it though.

#546

Thank you indi for looking back and seeing that it was S~V~S that first suggested the idea that Epignosis was framed. Coupled with what BF is saying about them doing that in a past game is interesting and something to keep in mind.

Snow Dog wrote:@Roxy, that's no problem. I hope we can put any misunderstandings behind us.

@reywaS....why do you think I am a baddie or rogue?

@everyone else. I want to believe Epignosis is civ which is why I think he is framed, but of course that solely relies on that belief. Certainly it was a gamble if was the baddies trying to frame him. But maybe worthwhile to get two civvies in a row down.

Why do you want to believe Epignosis is civvie?

#547

Roxy wrote:
I do wonder, however, about this last lynch. Why it was not switched to llama. I feel like I am missing a piece to this puzzle.

It does seem strange. I think it's a pretty sure bet that at least one of llama and Epi is a baddie. I have seen the frame job thing happen...twice I think I've seen it happen. I saw it first in a game on RM...can't remember which game... Anyway, I didn't think that there was any way that the baddie team would waster their lynch switch on someone other than a team mate. I was a civvie and I was very vocal in protest of the possibility. It turns out that that is exactly what happened. It's a very bold move, but if none of the baddies are being suspected it's a perfect way to waste 2 days lynching the ones that seemed to benefit from the switch. I don't think that is what happened in this game. I think either llama or epi is bad....maybe both. Looking at the lynch, it makes the most sense to me that both epi and llama are bad and that's why the lynch was switched to MP. It's possible that epi is bad and his team switched to MP instead of llama to create this doubt that we are discussing. It's also possible that llama is bad and switched to MP because the vote was so close and they wanted to be safe from vote manipulation and/or they knew Epi would flip either civ or indy and the suspicion would come back to llama.

either way, I think we have at least one baddie in llama/epi.

#548

Flyin' High wrote:Thank you indi for looking back and seeing that it was S~V~S that first suggested the idea that Epignosis was framed. Coupled with what BF is saying about them doing that in a past game is interesting and something to keep in mind.

Snow Dog wrote:@Roxy, that's no problem. I hope we can put any misunderstandings behind us.

@reywaS....why do you think I am a baddie or rogue?

@everyone else. I want to believe Epignosis is civ which is why I think he is framed, but of course that solely relies on that belief. Certainly it was a gamble if was the baddies trying to frame him. But maybe worthwhile to get two civvies in a row down.
Why do you want to believe Epignosis is civvie?

Just a feeling. From his posting. His manner. Just seems civ to me. I still find these things hard to tell though.

#549

reywaS wrote:I have seen the frame job thing happen...twice I think I've seen it happen. I saw it first in a game on RM...can't remember which game... Anyway, I didn't think that there was any way that the baddie team would waster their lynch switch on someone other than a team mate. I was a civvie and I was very vocal in protest of the possibility. It turns out that that is exactly what happened. It's a very bold move, but if none of the baddies are being suspected it's a perfect way to waste 2 days lynching the ones that seemed to benefit from the switch.

This is exactly what I think happened, and I think the reason I was not chosen for the switch is that they thought I would be easy to convince people to lynch me without having to resort to behind the scenes trickery. In my view, it would be foolish for the baddies to use so strong a power to lynch the civvie who's getting the most suspicion anyway.

#550

@Rey - I agree with you but still why MP? He was under some suspicion as well. Why not, for example, Porcu who had no suspicions, except from llama's "random" vote.

Who is a baddie mcbadderson?