Biblical Mafia [ENDGAME]

[dodo]

Let's also just remember that Heathens might not be our only problem. While I highly doubt Absalom is a Heathen, he could be a Horseman, and we don't know how much of a threat they are.

[NurseWilgy]

Let's also just remember that Heathens might not be our only problem. While I highly doubt Absalom is a Heathen, he could be a Horseman, and we don't know how much of a threat they are.

Whoa, what the heck is up with this post? Why did you single me out? ANYONE might be a horseman, including you. I don't like what you're implying.

In the interest of fairness, I will take a hard look at Jacob before voting for Jonathan, although I find Jonathan's "if you lynch me, you're going to look bad" defense very strange.

[Prisoner 509378]

Let's also just remember that Heathens might not be our only problem. While I highly doubt Absalom is a Heathen, he could be a Horseman, and we don't know how much of a threat they are.

I follow you. I've been wary of it all game. Getting on a roll with these Heathens makes me a little more optimistic about this though:

The Righteous
Eliminate The Heathens and survive

I'm hoping survive means 'be alive when the Heathens are gone' and not 'survive when the Horsemen open Pandora's Box.'

Dude, Absalom, I floated that theory already. I said you were Horseman at worst. Chillax bro.

[dodo]

Let's also just remember that Heathens might not be our only problem. While I highly doubt Absalom is a Heathen, he could be a Horseman, and we don't know how much of a threat they are.

Whoa, what the heck is up with this post? Why did you single me out? ANYONE might be a horseman, including you. I don't like what you're implying.

In the interest of fairness, I will take a hard look at Jacob before voting for Jonathan, although I find Jonathan's "if you lynch me, you're going to look bad" defense very strange.

I wasn't good with my wording, but my point was a general one with you as an example because people seem to be assuming that you're civvie. I apologize, however, you have reacted a bit extremely.

[NurseWilgy]

Dude, Absalom, I floated that theory already. I said you were Horseman at worst. Chillax bro.

Oh okay, I must have missed it. Sorry. I agree that the Horsemen are a worry. I cannot see how they can be civ aligned. But I don't want to break our Heathen killing streak.

[2 Stupid Dogs]

Balaam I was not trying to flatter you nor was I trying to set you up. You made a point in the past I considered it a good point - that was my decision not yours to consider it a good point - and I then made a vote. The vote was mine and mine alone. The comment that I have taken your thoughts into consideration all game is true of you and a couple of others so take that as you will.

[2 Stupid Dogs]

I will be in and out tomorrow getting ready to go out of town and then on Friday I will be unable to post. I do not expect nor do I want anyone to hesitate to vote me because I'm not in the thread. I just don't have much time in the thread if you want to ask me questions beforehand.

[Snapshot]

I could not be further from agreeing with the reasons for voting for Jonathan. Jonathan would be more of a last ditch vote if the other options failed, for me. I'm not sure how our eyes have fallen off seriously poor voting records (Jacob, Isaac, Deborah) for one that is average at worst. I don't understand why people aren't looking at Jonathan's day three vote and seeing what a terribly bad vote it would be if he was Uzz's teammate. Not sure how it is seen by Absalom as justifying their connection?

[Prisoner 509378]

I could not be further from agreeing with the reasons for voting for Jonathan. Jonathan would be more of a last ditch vote if the other options failed, for me. I'm not sure how our eyes have fallen off seriously poor voting records (Jacob, Isaac, Deborah) for one that is average at worst. I don't understand why people aren't looking at Jonathan's day three vote and seeing what a terribly bad vote it would be if he was Uzz's teammate. Not sure how it is seen by Absalom as justifying their connection?

Let's chat about that, Lot. I agree that Jacob and Deborah look worse than Jonathan still. I plan on doing more review work tomorrow before the lynch. I won't jump the gun on anybody. We're too darn close nabbing a third one to get hasty.

[Prisoner 509378]

Or maybe you don't want to talk about it. Suit yourself, Lot.

Now to re-read a few people. I'll take a look at Esther, Rebecca, and Pilate. That shouldn't take long.

[NurseWilgy]

I could not be further from agreeing with the reasons for voting for Jonathan. Jonathan would be more of a last ditch vote if the other options failed, for me. I'm not sure how our eyes have fallen off seriously poor voting records (Jacob, Isaac, Deborah) for one that is average at worst. I don't understand why people aren't looking at Jonathan's day three vote and seeing what a terribly bad vote it would be if he was Uzz's teammate. Not sure how it is seen by Absalom as justifying their connection?

Let's chat about that, Lot. I agree that Jacob and Deborah look worse than Jonathan still. I plan on doing more review work tomorrow before the lynch. I won't jump the gun on anybody. We're too darn close nabbing a third one to get hasty.

See, I just don't get this. I just looked at Jacob and Deborah's voting records, and neither of them look worse than Jonathan's to me. Jacob has missed a bunch of votes, which I think is less likely to happen when you have teammates to remind you to show up. Deborah has been part of too many bandwagons. I think baddies are usually more careful than that.

I think Jonathan's Day 3 vote is incredibly suspect. It was safe to vote Uzziah on Day 2. He wasn't going anywhere. It wasn't safe to vote for him on Day 3. He might actually have been lynched. And the reason he gave for switching his vote between those two days was vague and flimsy.

What do you guys think of the "don't lynch me, or other people will think you're bad and you'll be next" defense he gave? Did no one else find that incredibly weird?

[Prisoner 509378]

I could not be further from agreeing with the reasons for voting for Jonathan. Jonathan would be more of a last ditch vote if the other options failed, for me. I'm not sure how our eyes have fallen off seriously poor voting records (Jacob, Isaac, Deborah) for one that is average at worst. I don't understand why people aren't looking at Jonathan's day three vote and seeing what a terribly bad vote it would be if he was Uzz's teammate. Not sure how it is seen by Absalom as justifying their connection?

Let's chat about that, Lot. I agree that Jacob and Deborah look worse than Jonathan still. I plan on doing more review work tomorrow before the lynch. I won't jump the gun on anybody. We're too darn close nabbing a third one to get hasty.

See, I just don't get this. I just looked at Jacob and Deborah's voting records, and neither of them look worse than Jonathan's to me. Jacob has missed a bunch of votes, which I think is less likely to happen when you have teammates to remind you to show up. Deborah has been part of too many bandwagons. I think baddies are usually more careful than that.

I think Jonathan's Day 3 vote is incredibly suspect. It was safe to vote Uzziah on Day 2. He wasn't going anywhere. It wasn't safe to vote for him on Day 3. He might actually have been lynched. And the reason he gave for switching his vote between those two days was vague and flimsy.

What do you guys think of the "don't lynch me, or other people will think you're bad and you'll be next" defense he gave? Did no one else find that incredibly weird?

I guess we're just reading things differently when we analyze the votes. I'll try to keep your points in mind the next time I review the votes.

And yeah, the "just you wait and see what they'll do to you" defense is always weird. I can't knock it too much though, because I lobbed that one at you and Nicodemus on Day 4.

[NurseWilgy]

And yeah, the "just you wait and see what they'll do to you" defense is always weird. I can't knock it too much though, because I lobbed that one at you and Nicodemus on Day 4.

Yeah, but that was before I basically single-handedly led a lynch on a baddie. Does Jonathan really think people would turn on me and lynch me if I made the wrong call today?

[2 Stupid Dogs]

Please note I have amended that opinion to "some MAY see you as bad, others WON'T". We won't know until/unless I am lynched.

[dodo]

I could not be further from agreeing with the reasons for voting for Jonathan. Jonathan would be more of a last ditch vote if the other options failed, for me. I'm not sure how our eyes have fallen off seriously poor voting records (Jacob, Isaac, Deborah) for one that is average at worst. I don't understand why people aren't looking at Jonathan's day three vote and seeing what a terribly bad vote it would be if he was Uzz's teammate. Not sure how it is seen by Absalom as justifying their connection?

I am equally suspicious of Jacob and Jonathan at the moment. What do you make of Isaac right now, Lot?

What do you guys think of the "don't lynch me, or other people will think you're bad and you'll be next" defense he gave? Did no one else find that incredibly weird?

I have been questioning him pretty hard... why are you ignoring me?

[NurseWilgy]

What do you guys think of the "don't lynch me, or other people will think you're bad and you'll be next" defense he gave? Did no one else find that incredibly weird?

I have been questioning him pretty hard... why are you ignoring me?

I'm not ignoring you. I know you have been questioning him. My question was directed at Balaam and Lot.

[Snapshot]

Baddies miss votes all the time, for lots of reasons. Chief among them, holding them in case they are needed for a save. Generally speaking, I don't consider making or missing a vote any indication of alignment. However, if the theory is 'baddies have baddie teammates around to tell them to vote', then that is one reason why it is more relevant to see that they voted on the days Uzziah needed help and didn't vote on the days he didn't. Why would a baddie need to tell their teammate to vote when, frankly, they don't need to vote?

I'm not interested in missing votes. You can't analyse them. Especially with day two being a silence-fest. I'm only interested in the ones that are there.

Jonathan could have held his vote on day 3. Used it to actually help someone else be lynched instead of Uzziah. Put it on Uzziah later. Anything but use it at an absolutely critical period of the lynch on an absolutely irrelevant lynch train. It would literally be one of the most useless baddie votes of all time. On the other hand, I can see why that would make it good strategy. I just don't think 'he may have used good distancing strategy' is better than Jacob's votes which actually appeared to have a direct impact in controlling the lynch outcome on those days.

Jacob seems like a dead cert to me, I'd be really surprised if he isn't heathen.

@rachel - Isaac is the one I actually genuinely feel might have been in the wrong place at the wrong time. But the evidence is still strong enough that, if others like Jacob, Deborah or Jonathan didn't pan out, Isaac is worth considering.

[NurseWilgy]

I think Isaac's voting record is quite horrible. Apart from his Day 1 vote (the timing of which is pretty incriminating) the rest of his votes have been careful to keep blood off his hands.

[Snapshot]

Absalom, why don't you look at and use my voting analyses!!!!

Isaac's vote on day three was also incredibly damning.

I'm still looking harder at Jacob's vote yesterday, but honestly until then I think Isaac looked the worse of the two.

[NurseWilgy]

Okay, Lot, I looked at Jacob's voting record yet again, and I see what you're saying finally. With the exception of the Uzziah lynch, Jacob always showed up when a Heathen was in danger with well-timed votes for their opponent. Thanks for persevering in your explanation. I am still more suspicious of Jonathan, but I am much more open to a Jacob lynch than I was.

linki: calm down, Lot! I am going as fast as I can!

[NurseWilgy]

Now I'm confused. Do you suspect Jacob more...

@rachel - Isaac is the one I actually genuinely feel might have been in the wrong place at the wrong time. But the evidence is still strong enough that, if others like Jacob, Deborah or Jonathan didn't pan out, Isaac is worth considering.

Or Isaac...?

Isaac's vote on day three was also incredibly damning.

I'm still looking harder at Jacob's vote yesterday, but honestly until then I think Isaac looked the worse of the two.

[Snapshot]

Jacob. Votes + Ruth stuff yesterday. I think Jacob is a cinch. Jephthah second, Deborah third, Isaac fourth. Jonathan a distant fifth, or possibly even sixth after Pilate.

But I don't know why people keep inventing the wheel on vote analysis.

[NurseWilgy]

Jacob. Votes + Ruth stuff yesterday. I think Jacob is a cinch. Jephthah second, Deborah third, Isaac fourth. Jonathan a distant fifth, or possibly even sixth after Pilate.

But I don't know why people keep inventing the wheel on vote analysis.

Then why did you say you think Isaac is more suspicious than Jacob just a second ago?

And I prefer looking at the actual voting record to your analysis. Sorry, but there is more information there.

[Snapshot]

Because Isaac's voting record IS the most suspicious. Doesn't mean I find HIM most suspicious. Just that his voting record is, in my opinion, the worst. Jacob's second worse. But Isaac's posts alleviated my view on Isaac somewhat, and Ruth's lynch made me feel worse about Jacob.

[NurseWilgy]

Because Isaac's voting record IS the most suspicious. Doesn't mean I find HIM most suspicious. Just that his voting record is, in my opinion, the worst. Jacob's second worse. But Isaac's posts alleviated my view on Isaac somewhat, and Ruth's lynch made me feel worse about Jacob.

Okay, thanks for clarifying. I see now.

[Jack Shephard]

Either Jacob and Jonathan are both baddies or Jacob is Heathen and is trying to set Jonathan up after Jacob flips Heathen.

What?? Could you explain why you think this?

Jacob seems like a dead cert to me, I'd be really surprised if he isn't heathen.

Well then prepare to be surprised. Or, you know, actually read my posts and consider that you're wrong. You keep saying my votes are damning, and I keep explaining that I have just been misguided and in the wrong place at the wrong time, but your judgment is clouded. Wasting a lynch on me would tragically ruin our baddie-catching streak. We can't afford this.

Absalom no don't betray me I'm hesitant about Jonathan too as I said, I think he might be genuine. But if I have to vote him to save myself I will, because I know how valuable I am for the civvie cause.

[Phoebe Buffay]

I can't stay because I have work, but voting Jacob at this point, seems probably the most stupid thing to do! So in case I don't come back in a while, don't vote there.

[NurseWilgy]

Absalom no don't betray me I'm hesitant about Jonathan too as I said, I think he might be genuine. But if I have to vote him to save myself I will, because I know how valuable I am for the civvie cause.

All right, I'm going to go with my instincts. Lot makes a persuasive case on you, and your voting record is bad, but Jonathan's response to my accusation is just too fishy for me to ignore. I'm voting Jonathan. Let's make this interesting.

[Paul Stevens]

I think Isaac's voting record is quite horrible. Apart from his Day 1 vote (the timing of which is pretty incriminating) the rest of his votes have been careful to keep blood off his hands.

Careful? Not really. I've messed up a lot this game. I agree that my voting record is horrible. And as I've said multiple times before, if I hadn't missed the Day 4 vote, I would have voted Job (again, I might add). So yeah not trying to avoid anything there.

[Young Lady]

updating my reads on Isaac and Jacob and assessing Pilate for now, reading Jonathan will have to wait until later today - goddamn am I a slow analyser

Isaac
hard to say vote Day 3 (tied Job with Uzziah, but neither were lynched and the Mary train formed later on)
late vote Day 5 (hardly influencing the lynch anymore or seeming like a distancing act, but not very good on reasoning either)
tantrum vote for Rachel Day 6, which he regrets, then offers a symbolic "would totally join Ruth votes" in writing

inquisitive about Ruth but no more until Day 6
damning defense of Uzziah Day 3 (sides with Paul and Rachel's case on Job, plus said Uzziah "is least likely to turn up heathen at this point" and his rooting for scum is too daring to be true, then act self-aware of his defensive post and backs away)
damning defense of Uzziah Day 5, upon voting for Jeph

bottom line: votes don't make him look good, defense of Uzziah makes him look worse and if he's a Heathen he really kept some distance from Ruth until it was "bus time" on Day 6. Still don't feel good about his tantrum, followed by apologetic and oh-I-wish-I-would-vote-Ruth-now posts and he's been even more buddy buddy with Rachel since (agreeing with her that her Day 6 voters - other than him, of course - are worth watching). On the plus side, I agree with him that the late Ruth wagoners shouldn't really receive street cred after Ruth flipped civ (but nor should they receive too much flak; they are without doubt the easiest suspicion one could focus on or try to build on this Day) and I can also partially read his interest in Ruth on Day 6 as genuine, because it was a bit early to seem like Ruth was a goner and that there's need to start throwing rocks at her real quick.

He's claiming that he's just in the wrong spotlight and I have mixed feelings whether this is true or not, but overall I don't think here's the strongest candidate, based on the evidence we've got so far, I'd just keep him in mind.

I also fear that if we agree to lynch Isaac, God might stop us on the last minute :P

Jacob

damning vote Day 1 (further pushed Samson in front 4-2 to Uzziah)
damning vote Day 3 (built up Mary's lynch 2-3 against Uzziah)
no votes Days 2 & 4 (largely considered as no pressure days for Uzziah)
missed vote Day 5
hmmm vote Day 6 (4th for Rachel, with Ruth at 5 and Absalom likely in danger at 6)

absence of any read on Uzziah until Day 3
absence of any read on Ruth until Day 6!
damning defence of Uzziah Day 3
root for Uzziah or Jephthah lynch Day 5 (aka the two wagons)
damning defence of Ruth Day 6 (too-good-to-be-true distancing from her)

rebuttals: acknowledgment of bad record; claiming "wrong spotlight" situation; claiming his doubts about Ruth's distancing act and her lynch train were genuine or at least reasonable; claiming he's an important civ and that he's hinted at it

bottom line: worse than "worst spotlight" to be honest, more like "oh-god-everything-looks-awful spotlight". Since Ruth was a tough choice to go with it last Day, considering her good distacing skills, but since it actually paid off, I'd easily stick to it rather a bit more than scanning for defenders. For me, Heathens distancing from themselves (especially from Uzziah!) is starting to make more sense rather than the other way around. And with Ruth, I'll just say this: in a past game, I was bad and was caught not having payed attention in the thread to my teammate until he was on his way to be lynched and was confirmed baddie; so this kind of angle can sometimes lead to good results. Jacob never said a word about Ruth until Day 6, Ruth never said a word about him the entire game. I'm calling this worth considering.

As for his civ hint claim, something did in fact caught my eye, but not "multiple times" as you claim, Jacob. Still, I'll think about it. Can't state it out loud for safety reasons concerning that role. The second thought I had was about you saying in your Preface post that you're "part of History". But in this case, it could be anyone, dude. So were the Pharaoh and Nebuchadnezzar.

Pilate

Esther's read on Pilate yesterday looked quite solid to me, because I am incredibly wary of how much "meta" Pilate is using:

"I'm a civ, but I'm self aware I've done things that look bad and you should all normally suspect me. Wait, why aren't you?" wuuut
"Uzziah is framing me by reading me civ, so that I'll look like a baddie he distanced from when/if he flips bad". And yet Uzziah's lynch has done nothing but to actually make some consider Uzziah might have distanced from him, or Pilate might have distanced from Uzziah. So is Pilate constantly foreshadowing the possible suspicions on himself, what the ???

Plus, he did a totally irrational gunning for Rachel for two Days only to call it intentional fluff.
Plus #2, whilst his gunning for Absalom is fairly consistent, in light of Absalom having likely been in danger on the previous Day, his vote and Ruth's could be seen as an attempt to push Absalom to a difficult-to-beat 7-vote tally. But not feeling very strong about this theory.

Worth considering, overall, but I have to decide if he's the strongest candidate.

[Rachel Green]

I voted for Pilate as I said I probably would.

[Paul Stevens]

even more buddy buddy with Rachel since This is the only part of your post I disagree with. I'm still suspicious of her. Just apologetic for the way I reacted. I would still vote for her in a heartbeat if anyone else thought that we would find a Heathen there. But for now it seems we have better places to look. Like me (agreeing with her that her Day 6 voters - other than him, of course - are worth watching). On the plus side, I agree with him that the late Ruth wagoners shouldn't really receive street cred after Ruth flipped civ Uuuuuuhhh, Ruth didn't flip civ, pal. Check again.(but nor should they receive too much flak; they are without doubt the easiest suspicion one could focus on or try to build on this Day) and I can also partially read his interest in Ruth on Day 6 as genuine, because it was a bit early to seem like Ruth was a goner and that there's need to start throwing rocks at her real quick.

I also fear that if we agree to lynch Isaac, God might stop us on the last minute :P

I'm surprised I haven't been smited yet for my awful game play.

[Paul Stevens]

I get your reference, though, Belsh. Good one

[Young Lady]

even more buddy buddy with Rachel since On the plus side, I agree with him that the late Ruth wagoners shouldn't really receive street cred after Ruth flipped civ Uuuuuuhhh, Ruth didn't flip civ, pal. Check again.

whoops, flipped bad, I mean

[Prisoner 509378]

Okay, so I re-read Jacob and I haven't seen anything to make me feel any better about him. Anyone not named Jacob want to give me some reasons why I am off base in leaning his way in the vote? Also, I think that I may have caught the vaguest of references in one of Jacob's posts that could be construed as a hint at a role. Not sure I buy it as a hint though. Belsh, you say you think you spotted it. Coincidence or not?

Now to re-read Jonathan.

[Nicol Bolas]

Reading today's flurry of activity, I'm most suspicious of Jonathan, followed by Isaac. I'm going to vote Jonathan now just in case I disappear.

[Paul Stevens]

Reading today's flurry of activity, I'm most suspicious of Jonathan, followed by Isaac. I'm going to vote Jonathan now just in case I disappear.

Soooo, reasons? No? Just because I've eyeballed you every time you've voted? Like now?

[Prisoner 509378]

Yeah, still not feeling great about Jonathan either. My gut tells me that Jacob and Jonathan are two of the remaining three Heathens. Is that so far fetched?

Day 1:
-Uzz does his thing thing, succeeds at confusing us all
-Jacob joins the Samson train early
-Jonathan makes Samson more of a sure thing (3 vote lead)
-Uzz & Ruth vote for the other bandwagon after Samson has been put away
-Heathens split their votes between two civvie bandwagons


Day 2:
-Uzz continues his thing thing
-Everyone piles on the Cain train again because he was a sourpuss
-Jonathan votes for Uzz late to get some cred
-Jacob & Ruth miss the vote...


Day 3:
-Uzz does his thing thing again
-Not seeing enough bloodlust for Rachel to vote there, Jonathan and Jacob split their votes between two other interesting options to keep others close to Uzz's tally
-Mary Mag proves to be as pleasant as Cain
-Civvies pepper her with votes
-Ruth piles on at the end once Uzz is only 1 vote shy of tying Mary for the lead


Day 4:
-Uzz...
-Ruth throws a vote onto her teammate because we've forgotten about him in the Job v. Balaam trains (cred grab)
-Jonathan can pick either civvie train to ride again and says someone else's case has him convinced on Job (shrugging responsibility)
-Jacob missed the vote


Day 5:
-Uzz gets three of the first five votes
-Heathens see the writing on the wall
-Jonathan votes early because early voters on a baddie aren't usually suspicious
-Ruth votes Uzz to keep his lead up (team Heathen hoping to score some serious cred by not letting a civvie comeback happen)
-Jacob misses the vote


Day 6:
-Jonathan votes Jacob in an attempt to build cred for when Jacob gets lynched
-Jacob tries to keep the Rachel train alive
-Ruth votes in desperation hoping that Lazarus is Simon
-Last minute votes trump possible Simon shenanigans

[Prisoner 509378]

NOTE: Day 5- Jonathan voted Uzz

[Young Lady]

Okay, so I re-read Jacob and I haven't seen anything to make me feel any better about him. Anyone not named Jacob want to give me some reasons why I am off base in leaning his way in the vote? Also, I think that I may have caught the vaguest of references in one of Jacob's posts that could be construed as a hint at a role. Not sure I buy it as a hint though. Belsh, you say you think you spotted it. Coincidence or not?

Now to re-read Jonathan.

[Paul Stevens]

Yeah, still not feeling great about Jonathan either. My gut tells me that Jacob and Jonathan are two of the remaining three Heathens. Is that so far fetched?

Not at all. I wouldn't hesitate to say that if you lynched all 3 of us, you're bound to get at least 1 or 2 heathens. This is not a gambit!!!

[Paul Stevens]

In fact I will help vote for the one of the 3 of us that everyone wants to see lynched first. You have my word.

[Phoebe Buffay]

Okay, so I re-read Jacob and I haven't seen anything to make me feel any better about him. Anyone not named Jacob want to give me some reasons why I am off base in leaning his way in the vote? Also, I think that I may have caught the vaguest of references in one of Jacob's posts that could be construed as a hint at a role. Not sure I buy it as a hint though. Belsh, you say you think you spotted it. Coincidence or not?

Now to re-read Jonathan.

There's no one else to claim he's lying, and if I'm not wrong, he's hinted at it a few times, and at least once before all the pressure was on him, but I'm not sure. Not to mention the fact he seems genuinely frustrated to me, but that's just me. By the way, I'm sure the baddies are on to it already, because they're not as lazy as some of the civvies.

Looking back at the last lynch, I'm assuming they would have tried a little harder to save Ruth because they just lost one baddie, but had to be careful to not be caught as Ruth.

Question is, what was more important to the other baddies? Let's say they start by trying to save her. That would work until the time she got 5-6 votes. After that, whoever bandwagons on someone else, starts looking bad if she's lynched.
So these are the players who had votes:

Absalom
3
Pilate (7), Lazarus (16), Ruth (21)
12%

Jacob
2
Jonathan (17), Deborah (18)
8%

Pilate
2
Esther (11), Rahab (15)
8%

Rachel
4
Isaac (4), Rebecca (13), Mordecai (14), Jacob (20)
16%

Ruth
9
Absalom (5), Stephen (6), Lot (9), Jephthah (12), Rachel (19), Balaam (22), Belshazzar (23), Samuel (24), Bathsheba (25)
36%


Isaac voted before for Rachel before Ruth even had a vote and it was long before the first person, i.e. Absalom, started talking about her. And Issac's vote seemed like an annoyed vote for someone who he thought was framing him. It could have been fabricated, but I don't see it.

The next non Ruth vote is Pilate who voted for Absalom. Yeah, it can be an attempt for a save, but if it is, why not find a reason to vote Rachel too, to make this closer? Still, Ruth has only 2 votes at that point, so it's an open game.

Now Ruth gets another vote, and is leading 3 to 1 (on Rachel and Absalom). Next vote comes from Esther on Pilate. If you're trying to save Ruth, that's not the way to go, spreading it yet again. Better to wait and see where things are going. So I'm ruling Ester out for now.

Ruth gets another vote and is now 4 to 1. Still a chance to save her, but baddies need to move things. Now come in Rebecca and Mordecai and cast two consecutive votes for Rachel. I doubt they would be so obvious to put two baddie votes together, but I'm putting money on one of them being bad.

Rest of the analysis in the next post to cut this one short :P

[2 Stupid Dogs]

Yeah, still not feeling great about Jonathan either. My gut tells me that Jacob and Jonathan are two of the remaining three Heathens. Is that so far fetched?

Day 1:
-Uzz does his thing thing, succeeds at confusing us all
-Jacob joins the Samson train early
-Jonathan makes Samson more of a sure thing (3 vote lead)
-Uzz & Ruth vote for the other bandwagon after Samson has been put away
-Heathens split their votes between two civvie bandwagons


Day 2:
-Uzz continues his thing thing
-Everyone piles on the Cain train again because he was a sourpuss
-Jonathan votes for Uzz late to get some cred
-Jacob & Ruth miss the vote...


Day 3:
-Uzz does his thing thing again
-Not seeing enough bloodlust for Rachel to vote there, Jonathan and Jacob split their votes between two other interesting options to keep others close to Uzz's tally
-Mary Mag proves to be as pleasant as Cain
-Civvies pepper her with votes
-Ruth piles on at the end once Uzz is only 1 vote shy of tying Mary for the lead


Day 4:
-Uzz...
-Ruth throws a vote onto her teammate because we've forgotten about him in the Job v. Balaam trains (cred grab)
-Jonathan can pick either civvie train to ride again and says someone else's case has him convinced on Job (shrugging responsibility)
-Jacob missed the vote


Day 5:
-Uzz gets three of the first five votes
-Heathens see the writing on the wall
-Jonathan votes early because early voters on a baddie aren't usually suspicious
-Ruth votes Uzz to keep his lead up (team Heathen hoping to score some serious cred by not letting a civvie comeback happen)
-Jacob misses the vote


Day 6:
-Jonathan votes Jacob in an attempt to build cred for when Jacob gets lynched
-Jacob tries to keep the Rachel train alive
-Ruth votes in desperation hoping that Lazarus is Simon
-Last minute votes trump possible Simon shenanigans

Yes it is far fetched. Maybe there is one heathen but it isn't me. And on your above set of "facts" you are ascribing meaning that isn't there. For example, and most importantly that I voted Uzziah early on day 5 so that my vote wouldn't be suspicious. I vote when I'm ready to vote - some days that is late and some days that is early. And I did not vote Jacob for cred when Jacob gets lynched as you say on Day 6. I voted him because the info we had on Ruth at the end convinced me she wasn't on Uzziah's team. You twist things like this all through your presentation. I don't think you are bad, I think you want to believe I am bad so are finding things that could fit the bill if you give those things meaning that isn't there.

[Phoebe Buffay]

Continuing:
Side note: everything I've said is under the assumption Rachel is not bad, but it's also possible that she decided to cast a vote that would be at the most crucial time, when she herself was gaining momentum as a lynch candidate. That would establish a fantastic distance. But I'm going on with the first option first.

Now comes the Tricky part. Ruth has 4 votes and Rachel has 3. Assuming Rachel is good, they can't all bandwagon on the same person- 2 at most. So they either wait, or they cast a vote on another candidate and see how it develops with Ruth.

While I write this, I go back to the option that Rachel is bad, because I don't get the voting pattern otherwise. It's silly to jump in and vote for another person who doesn't have any votes, unless they were already giving Ruth up and planning for the day after because a civvie lynch would just secure Ruth's guilt. If that's the case, why not just vote for Ruth herself?
That would make Belshazaar the candidate for a baddie among the Ruth voters. Not too early, and not too late.

[Phoebe Buffay]

In any case, if we belive Rachel isn't bad, then I think we should vote for either Mordecai or Rebecca. Question is-who?

[Prisoner 509378]

Yes it is far fetched. Maybe there is one heathen but it isn't me. And on your above set of "facts" you are ascribing meaning that isn't there. For example, and most importantly that I voted Uzziah early on day 5 so that my vote wouldn't be suspicious. I vote when I'm ready to vote - some days that is late and some days that is early. And I did not vote Jacob for cred when Jacob gets lynched as you say on Day 6. I voted him because the info we had on Ruth at the end convinced me she wasn't on Uzziah's team. You twist things like this all through your presentation. I don't think you are bad, I think you want to believe I am bad so are finding things that could fit the bill if you give those things meaning that isn't there.

I'm applying baddie logic, which is perfectly reasonable once two baddies from the same team have been sniffed out.

In any case, if we belive Rachel isn't bad, then I think we should vote for either Mordecai or Rebecca. Question is-who?

And if you're like me, who doesn't think Rachel is bad? What do you arrive at then?

[Prisoner 509378]

blah. my reading comprehension skills let me down there. Let me read through all that again.

[Phoebe Buffay]

blah. my reading comprehension skills let me down there. Let me read through all that again.

Yeah, why don't you?

[Prisoner 509378]

Isaac voted before for Rachel before Ruth even had a vote and it was long before the first person, i.e. Absalom, started talking about her. And Issac's vote seemed like an annoyed vote for someone who he thought was framing him. It could have been fabricated, but I don't see it.

The next non Ruth vote is Pilate who voted for Absalom. Yeah, it can be an attempt for a save, but if it is, why not find a reason to vote Rachel too, to make this closer? Still, Ruth has only 2 votes at that point, so it's an open game.

Now Ruth gets another vote, and is leading 3 to 1 (on Rachel and Absalom). Next vote comes from Esther on Pilate. If you're trying to save Ruth, that's not the way to go, spreading it yet again. Better to wait and see where things are going. So I'm ruling Ester out for now.

Ruth gets another vote and is now 4 to 1. Still a chance to save her, but baddies need to move things. Now come in Rebecca and Mordecai and cast two consecutive votes for Rachel. I doubt they would be so obvious to put two baddie votes together, but I'm putting money on one of them being bad.

Rest of the analysis in the next post to cut this one short :P

-Agree on Isaac (for now)
-Reasonable assumption on Esther
-I'll have to go back to see if it feels like an attempt to ignite momentum on Rachel

Continuing:
Side note: everything I've said is under the assumption Rachel is not bad, but it's also possible that she decided to cast a vote that would be at the most crucial time, when she herself was gaining momentum as a lynch candidate. That would establish a fantastic distance. But I'm going on with the first option first.

Now comes the Tricky part. Ruth has 4 votes and Rachel has 3. Assuming Rachel is good, they can't all bandwagon on the same person- 2 at most. So they either wait, or they cast a vote on another candidate and see how it develops with Ruth.

While I write this, I go back to the option that Rachel is bad, because I don't get the voting pattern otherwise. It's silly to jump in and vote for another person who doesn't have any votes, unless they were already giving Ruth up and planning for the day after because a civvie lynch would just secure Ruth's guilt. If that's the case, why not just vote for Ruth herself?
That would make Belshazaar the candidate for a baddie among the Ruth voters. Not too early, and not too late.

I wouldn't say Rachel was gaining momentum when she voted. There were four non-Rachel votes in a row. I'll go back and look for when the Rachel momentum fell apart.

I don't think this theory has as firm a foundation as mine.

My theory lacks a third Heathen. It's possible Rebecca or Mordecai fit that mold. The timing of some of their votes could be intriguing. Blow your ideas up to the macro level- apply your suspicions from Day 1 on and show how the people you suspect fit into a larger picture alongside the votes by Uzz and Ruth. We're past the point of taking it day by day imo. Build a full case and we'll see if it all gels.