Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

[acrosstheaether]

I disagree about the notion that Elo's flip should be treated as a townie lynch though. Many people (including myself) would have been town, and read her behaviour as generally anti-town, rather than a mafia-tell in particular.

I have a distinct memory of an RYMer making the exact same point about a rogue lynch that i made there in a recent game.

It was you.

It wasn't an open setup, we didn't even know there was a rogue, and that rogue wasn't a serial killer, weren't they?

[acrosstheaether]

This is where open vs. closed setup mean a huge difference. As evident, quite a few people here were interested in serial killer hunting rather than mafiahunting. One less nightkill benefits town.

[fingersplints]

Unless the mafia kills nightly now.

This post:

I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

Why are you trying to draw attention to who might have a specific civvie role?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This is where open vs. closed setup mean a huge difference. As evident, quite a few people here were interested in serial killer hunting rather than mafiahunting. One less nightkill benefits town.

could you point to an example of distinct serial killer hunting and non-mafia hunting?

[acrosstheaether]

Unless the mafia kills nightly now.

This post:

I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

Why are you trying to draw attention to who might have a specific civvie role?

So we no longer need to suspect that person?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

aether, who are your suspects?

[fingersplints]

Unless the mafia kills nightly now.

This post:

I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

Why are you trying to draw attention to who might have a specific civvie role?

So we no longer need to suspect that person?

So the mafia can know who has what civvie role and who to kill next?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i'd like to echo a point made by sanmateo and Sloonei. DDL has put a lot of work into describing why he wouldn't play the way he has played as mafia. and in so doing, he has acknowledged the WIFOM nature of that mindset. this would make him a very self-aware mafioso.

but wait, what if he is very self-aware of the notion of being a self-aware mafioso? let's visit his comment directed at me:

If you are mafia, you are one of the most self-aware players I've ever seen.

this could be called an unintentional self-diagnosis.

[birdwithteeth11]

SON OF A.....

I saw I had about 30 seconds left (I thought), went to click on the bubble next to Bass' name, and then went to vote....and it wouldn't accept my vote because it was past the deadline. Oh well.

But yeah, if I could have voted, I would have voted for Bass probably. DDL would be a close second for his pressing Elo on her Golden vote, and DDL's voicing suspicion of her, but then going with an aether vote which seemed like an easy cop-out to me.

Might as well finish catching up for now.

Linki: If Elo flips civ, I think DDL is definitely getting a closer look from me. The only person I remember having anything resembling a substantial case on her is MP. I feel like there was one more player but I can't remember right now who it is.

That, and I think it's more likely Elo comes up civ because of all the weak reasons IMO I saw for voting for her. Seemed like an easy target unfortunately.

Linki: Holy shit did NOT expect that at ALL!

Calls me a cop out, but doesn't vote. Could be real life, but the guy was pretty active at the end of the phase. So am I too believe that he stayed active for the entire final hour, and for some reason decided to wait until the last few minutes to vote, but then something happened and he had to look away from the computer at the exact time the phase ended?

Wouldn't it be better to just, you know, vote half an hour earlier? It's not like you would have changed anything, but at least you would have avoided the possible host punishment?

If anything, that is the cop out. Sure, he may be punished by the mod, but this isn't the first instance I've seen of a player eating a mod punishment on purpose just to be able to stay away from the fray.

I tend to wait as late as I possibly can to vote. When RL doesn't get in the way, sometimes it is 30 minutes or less before the poll ends. I like to wait as late as possible because I want as much information as I can get before I vote. Sometimes things happen towards the end of a lynch period that make me change my mind.

And it wasn't RL that made me miss the vote. It was me trying to catch up in the thread and losing track of time. I thought I had more time than I did, looked down, and noticed I had almost no time left to vote. So I panicked and went to try and vote, and it had already gone past the deadline.

I stick by what I said about your aether vote though. Why voice your suspicion of Elo as much as you did, and then suddenly switch gears?

[birdwithteeth11]

i'd like to echo a point made by sanmateo and Sloonei. DDL has put a lot of work into describing why he wouldn't play the way he has played as mafia. and in so doing, he has acknowledged the WIFOM nature of that mindset. this would make him a very self-aware mafioso.

but wait, what if he is very self-aware of the notion of being a self-aware mafioso? let's visit his comment directed at me:

If you are mafia, you are one of the most self-aware players I've ever seen.

this could be called an unintentional self-diagnosis.

Hmmmmmm....interesting. I'll go back and look at it myself.

[birdwithteeth11]

i threw my vote on Elo. every other option is mathematically impossible. and she's a red read. so cool beans.

Same point here. Why throwing a vote that has no chance of changing anything?

You did point right after that that you were aware of the possibility of mafia knowing the lynch was inevitable though, which is interesting. If you are mafia, you are one of the most self-aware players I've ever seen.

If someone votes for a player that has no chance of getting lynched in, say, one or two lynches in a game, that's different IMO from someone who constantly does it throughout the game. Once or twice (or more if it's the same person over and over) I'm okay with because I generally interpret it as a civ thing to be going after the player you are most suspicious of. If one person gives it enough attention over time, it can cause other people to go and examine exactly what the original poster is seeing with a certain player.

Now if you're voting for people who have no chance of being lynched, and constantly throw your vote around on different players, then I view that as more absolving yourself of a lynch. Which looks more like a baddie act.

So I don't think "throwing a vote that has no chance of changing anything" is an exercise in futility. It can pay off down the road sometimes.

[Tangrowth]

Not here for long, will try to pop back in after I've actually been productive today to provide updated Rainbow Reads.

Very interesting points have been made about DDL. I'll ISO (but may not post it all, at least look back at all of his posts) to start off D3.

Unless the mafia kills nightly now.

This post:

I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

Why are you trying to draw attention to who might have a specific civvie role?

So we no longer need to suspect that person?

So the mafia can know who has what civvie role and who to kill next?

This is another area of contention for me between long-time LP-based players and myself. The mafia has constant BTSC. Surely they speculate on such matters? Why can't the civilians do so in thread?

The only time I agree that drawing attention is bad is if the observation is incredibly explicit and would otherwise be very difficult for the mafia to figure out by themselves, but such instances are very rare.

[Tangrowth]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

You willing to back that up with some suspicions?

[fingersplints]

MP - I'm sure the baddies speculate, but if they didn't figure it out then it's handing them information on a silver platter. Not everyone is good at figuring out who is what role. I just don't see any point in helping them out. Plus if everyone in the thread comes to the conclusion that a certain player is a certain civvie role, the mafia can no longer lynch them and they will be NKd instantly.

[Tangrowth]

MP - I'm sure the baddies speculate, but if they didn't figure it out then it's handing them information on a silver platter. Not everyone is good at figuring out who is what role. I just don't see any point in helping them out. Plus if everyone in the thread comes to the conclusion that a certain player is a certain civvie role, the mafia can no longer lynch them and they will be NKd instantly.

That's fair enough, but I'm not sure how cut and dry it would be to figure out Adam Smith's identity.

Even if it is, if I were on the mafia team, I'd feel more threatened by the role checker. Wouldn't you?

If we were speculating on that role instead, I'd share your hesitation.

[Tangrowth]

That said, I have no such desire to speculate on Adam Smith myself. It's obvious that there was a hard push against Elo yesterday and he could be any of Elo's voters, really.

[fingersplints]

No. Adam Smith steals abilities so is essentially a role checker who can steal kills. By far the most powerful role IMO

[Tangrowth]

No. Adam Smith steals abilities so is essentially a role checker who can steal kills. By far the most powerful role IMO

Inherent is an assumption about the role.

[fingersplints]

No. Adam Smith steals abilities so is essentially a role checker who can steal kills. By far the most powerful role IMO

Inherent is an assumption about the role.

You guys are making the same assumption when you say that whoever stole Elo's kill would know who she was.

[Tangrowth]

No. Adam Smith steals abilities so is essentially a role checker who can steal kills. By far the most powerful role IMO

Inherent is an assumption about the role.

You guys are making the same assumption when you say that whoever stole Elo's kill would know who she was.

I personally never made such an assumption.

[Tangrowth]

The fact is, Llama has a hand in this game, and he prefers vaguely-written roles to "Secrets", so to me, the role checker is a sure thing, whereas Adam Smith's role could easily be interpreted the way it has been, but I could also see it working differently.

[Turnip Head]

While we're talking about dangerous assumptions, maybe we should have a discussion about mathematical impossibilities, guns, and butter.

[Tangrowth]

While we're talking about dangerous assumptions, maybe we should have a discussion about mathematical impossibilities, guns, and butter.

That sounds fun.

[fingersplints]

No thanks

[Tangrowth]

Splints, now with all of that said, I don't feel good about aether at the moment, so I'm not trying to indicate that I do. I need to hear more from her, now that she's decided to ride this game out.

Now I really need to go. My self-discipline to stay away from mafia when I should be working is so terrible.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MP - I'm sure the baddies speculate, but if they didn't figure it out then it's handing them information on a silver platter. Not everyone is good at figuring out who is what role. I just don't see any point in helping them out. Plus if everyone in the thread comes to the conclusion that a certain player is a certain civvie role, the mafia can no longer lynch them and they will be NKd instantly.

i was going to wait for aether to talk about this, but i think it's too late. i understand your trepidation here, but i also think MP's point stands. a mafia team with BTSC (and presumably at least 3 members) would be able to discuss Adam Smith possibilities in their own forum without needing to bring it here. so are you saying then that you suspect aether brought the conversation to the public thread as a mafioso to enlist townie aid in figuring it out?

[fingersplints]

My suspicion of aether has been growing. Like I said before I don't see how every role not being revealed is enough to want to quit a game when you guys have a role that hides role reveals. So that is a possibility. I also brought up earlier how I believe mafia likes to comment on roles and the like to seem to be contributing without really. So I think the second was more likely the intention, while pinpointing a valuable role would have been a nice side effect.

[Turnip Head]

While we're talking about dangerous assumptions, maybe we should have a discussion about mathematical impossibilities, guns, and butter.

That sounds fun.

Spoken like a true accountant.

No thanks

But there's going to be a quiz!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My suspicion of aether has been growing. Like I said before I don't see how every role not being revealed is enough to want to quit a game when you guys have a role that hides role reveals. So that is a possibility. I also brought up earlier how I believe mafia likes to comment on roles and the like to seem to be contributing without really. So I think the second was more likely the intention, while pinpointing a valuable role would have been a nice side effect.

to be fair, the role you're referring to may have only appeared on RYM once or twice ever. it's not commonplace and i don't think i've ever played with one in a game myself. however, i highlighted the point in your quote that i think is most salient. i agree, and a parallel can be drawn that the RYMers might be more familiar with -- in our culture, this is usually expressed by fake-contributing mafia in the form of setup speculation (like guessing at how many scum there are, or what roles there might be, and how the game might be balanced), because on RYM we usually play in closed setups. so you're right to raise this point i think, fingersplints.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

While we're talking about dangerous assumptions, maybe we should have a discussion about mathematical impossibilities, guns, and butter.

That sounds fun.

Spoken like a true accountant.

No thanks

But there's going to be a quiz!

i'm not sure what you're talking about, but if it involves me making posts about this mafia game let's do it

[Turnip Head]

I'm just saying let's keep vote manipulation from guns and butter in mind going forward.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm just saying let's keep vote manipulation from guns and butter in mind going forward.

very good point. i'd not considered that and i should have.

[fingersplints]

My suspicion of aether has been growing. Like I said before I don't see how every role not being revealed is enough to want to quit a game when you guys have a role that hides role reveals. So that is a possibility. I also brought up earlier how I believe mafia likes to comment on roles and the like to seem to be contributing without really. So I think the second was more likely the intention, while pinpointing a valuable role would have been a nice side effect.

to be fair, the role you're referring to may have only appeared on RYM once or twice ever. it's not commonplace and i don't think i've ever played with one in a game myself. however, i highlighted the point in your quote that i think is most salient. i agree, and a parallel can be drawn that the RYMers might be more familiar with -- in our culture, this is usually expressed by fake-contributing mafia in the form of setup speculation (like guessing at how many scum there are, or what roles there might be, and how the game might be balanced), because on RYM we usually play in closed setups. so you're right to raise this point i think, fingersplints.

this is a reasonable explanation, but not one she provided. It feels like she ignored it hoping that suspicion would drop. (Another thing I associate as baddie behavior)

[thellama73]

I'm just saying let's keep vote manipulation from guns and butter in mind going forward.

very good point. i'd not considered that and i should have.

I don't believe this was made clear, so I want to do it here before anyone complains.

The items on the front page are to be purchased AT NIGHT ONLY. They can then be used at your convenience (with the exception of the NK protect, which only happens the night it is purchased.)

So if you buy a +1 vote, you hold onto it until you want to use it. You can't buy it at the last minute during the day though.

[Sloonei]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

[Vompatti]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

[Sloonei]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

why do you feel this way?

[Sloonei]

I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

I understand why this thought would occur to a townie, but i'm still a bit worried about the reason behind why ot was posted in the thread. It seems like it could be eiter one of a scum player trying to engage the town in a conversation about something other than scum hunting, or a scum player making observations about a town power role because that's genuinely what they're trying to discern.
Or a townie talking about the game.

[Sloonei]

I disagree about the notion that Elo's flip should be treated as a townie lynch though. Many people (including myself) would have been town, and read her behaviour as generally anti-town, rather than a mafia-tell in particular.

I have mixed feelings about the theory that her lynch should be treated as a town lynch. She definitely exhibited anti-town behavior and there was no doubt some real scum hunting which helped drive us to her lynch. But any scum players on or off the bandwagon would have assumed we were lynching a townie, or at least not one of their own, so they would have acted accordingly. Both things are important to keep in mind.

[Vompatti]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

why do you feel this way?

That's a bit of a personal question.

[Sloonei]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

why do you feel this way?

That's a bit of a personal question.

Does being your psychiatrist make me bad?

[Vompatti]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

why do you feel this way?

That's a bit of a personal question.

Does being your psychiatrist make me bad?

No but it might make you insane.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Would you agree, Vompatti, when i say that baddies are generally misunderstood and should be allowed to hang out with the rest of the townies? Even if they kill people sometimes

[Sloonei]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

why do you feel this way?

That's a bit of a personal question.

Does being your psychiatrist make me bad?

No but it might make you insane.

I'm a professional, you need not worry about me.

Am I not scum now?

[Vompatti]

Would you agree, Vompatti, when i say that baddies are generally misunderstood and should be allowed to hang out with the rest of the townies? Even if they kill people sometimes

I generally approve of killing people as long as it's done in a humane way.

[Vompatti]

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

why do you feel this way?

That's a bit of a personal question.

Does being your psychiatrist make me bad?

No but it might make you insane.

I'm a professional, you need not worry about me.

Am I not scum now?

Perhaps just a bit.

You may embed only 7 quotes within each other.

[Marmot]

Would you agree, Vompatti, when i say that baddies are generally misunderstood and should be allowed to hang out with the rest of the townies? Even if they kill people sometimes

I generally approve of killing people as long as it's done in a humane way.

Can I eat them?

[Vompatti]

Would you agree, Vompatti, when i say that baddies are generally misunderstood and should be allowed to hang out with the rest of the townies? Even if they kill people sometimes

I generally approve of killing people as long as it's done in a humane way.

Can I eat them?

You can and you should.

[S~V~S]

You may embed only 7 quotes within each other.

It used to be 5; I upped it out of frustration at being a formatting fail Send me a bribe, and we might discuss 9

Oh the powah!!!

[Sloonei]

Perhaps just a bit.

You may embed only 7 quotes within each other.

do you have reasons for maybe thinking i'm a bit of a bad guy? or is it just a Thing?