MINECRAFT - DAY SIX

#1301

I think you certainly implied it MP.

Well, nights Mafia people xoxoxo

#1302

Ambray wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.

I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.
And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?
Yes.

He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.

#1303

Ambray wrote: Spaghetti, your logic of, I think she's bad because of how she is going after BWT has me confused. We don't know his role, so how does it make ME bad?

Hooold up, did i ever say you were bad? Nuh uh, I didn't. I said it pinged me a bit by how certain you were.

#1304

With what I know, and unless somebody either tonight or tomorrow gives me pause with a reason as to why I'm wrong, I can't be.
The only other way would be host error and I doubt it's that.

So. I guess time will tell.

I'm off now, night.

linki - SE, well you don't say someone pings you because you think they're good.

#1305

Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.

#1306

hows about we stop asking for facts since fact dropping is info dropping, which is prohibited.

#1307

BWT, what say you? Can you vouch for llama here?

Also, S~V~S, what can I say? I can say I'm 99% sure someone is baddie and it doesn't mean I KNOW. Besides, trying to assert I am absolutely sure of something would be breaking the rules, surely? I'm not going to argue about it any further, but you of all people should know how I assert myself. I may have made a mistake, and I'll be the first to admit that, but I don't necessarily think I did just yet.

Ambray wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.

I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.
And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?
Yes.

Well, I suppose there's only way one to find out.

If he is lynched and doesn't flip that way though, I will be looking at you. I will sleep on all of this just to be sure, but does this seem fair to you?

thellama73 wrote:
Ambray wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.

I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.
And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?
Yes.
He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.

Who is then?

#1308

>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.

What say you? Snow Dog apparently was eyeing you considerably and he was the role blocker. Who do you think is baddie?

#1309

[quote="MovingPictures07"

thellama73 wrote: He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.

Who is then?[/quote]

I don't know. I think all the baddies including Hero are hiding among the quiet people, though.

#1310

How about Stevie NKs BWT?

Lol.

#1311

MovingPictures07 wrote:How about Stevie NKs BWT?

Lol.

How about stop having terrible ideas.

#1312

thellama73 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:How about Stevie NKs BWT?

Lol.
How about stop having terrible ideas.

I was joking, hence the Lol. Haha.

Hey, what can I say, I've been playing the game to the best of my ability and having a blast, that's all I can really ask for.

You don't feel more strongly about any particular quiet player over another?

#1313

I was also joking, hence the winky.

Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.

I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.

#1314

MovingPictures07 wrote:
>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.
What say you? Snow Dog apparently was eyeing you considerably and he was the role blocker. Who do you think is baddie?

I dont know if I would say he was eying me, he just asked everyone's opinions of me and nobody ever answered me. I think he may have been suspicious of me because I haven't been posting much, even though that's kind of my playstyle. As for people who I think are bad, I think llama and BF might be bad. Llama has been accused of a lot, keeps reassuring us he is civvie, and never really seems to defend himself when called out, as well as never has much of a reason as to why he suspects somebody. As for BF, I think he has been pretty wishy washy and that vote for ambray seems like an attempt to bandwagon somebody into taking out a civvie. I think ambray is a civvie, but depending on if BWT gets lynched or not and how he turns up if he does get lynched could affect how i feel about ambray.

#1315

thellama73 wrote:I was also joking, hence the winky.

Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.

I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.

You do realize this is a ballsy move on both your and Ambray's parts, correct? Because if one of you is incorrect here, you are going so very down.

>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.
What say you? Snow Dog apparently was eyeing you considerably and he was the role blocker. Who do you think is baddie?
I dont know if I would say he was eying me, he just asked everyone's opinions of me and nobody ever answered me. I think he may have been suspicious of me because I haven't been posting much, even though that's kind of my playstyle. As for people who I think are bad, I think llama and BF might be bad. Llama has been accused of a lot, keeps reassuring us he is civvie, and never really seems to defend himself when called out, as well as never has much of a reason as to why he suspects somebody. As for BF, I think he has been pretty wishy washy and that vote for ambray seems like an attempt to bandwagon somebody into taking out a civvie. I think ambray is a civvie, but depending on if BWT gets lynched or not and how he turns up if he does get lynched could affect how i feel about ambray.

Fair enough, thank you good sir.

#1316

That should read "you" as in whichever one of you is incorrect, of course, not "you" being llama in both cases.

Anyway, I suppose I'm out of here to get some rest as well. Let's see what happens in the course of the night period, I suppose.

#1317

EBWOP, it was supposed to say that nobody ever answered HIM not me. And I hope that can clear some things up for you alex

#1318

MovingPictures07 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I was also joking, hence the winky.

Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.

I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.
You do realize this is a ballsy move on both your and Ambray's parts, correct? Because if one of you is incorrect here, you are going so very down.

I'm very well aware of this, which is why I think we are both probably on the side of good, but one of us has bad info.

#1319

thellama73 wrote:Here's a thought. I think all of us engaged in this argument are probably civvies who have been duped in some way. Maybe we should focus on the people being quiet. (SE, DP, Boogs, BF)

Even when I'm trying to speak up I'm quiet. Lovely.

#1320

Just my little bit of input here

I doubt I will be lynching llama or Teeth anytime soon. I am willing to give them a chance plus I want to see what Teeth has to say about llama as well.

I thought spaghetti's last post was full of blendy and really is just rewording of other peoples suspicions without answering the actual suspicions against him. In other words he seemed to say something when he really didn't. Says he would lynch llama or bf or Teeth and if flips civ then he will rethink Ambray. Idk it just feels like heres some of the same you have been saying and I am going to follow the crowd with my vote.

#1321

Wow, a guy leaves for a little over 2 hours, and he has a ton of posts to catch up on. LOL Glad to see the discussion.

Catching up...

#1322

Roxy wrote:Just my little bit of input here

I doubt I will be lynching llama or Teeth anytime soon. I am willing to give them a chance plus I want to see what Teeth has to say about llama as well.

I thought spaghetti's last post was full of blendy and really is just rewording of other peoples suspicions without answering the actual suspicions against him. In other words he seemed to say something when he really didn't. Says he would lynch llama or bf or Teeth and if flips civ then he will rethink Ambray. Idk it just feels like heres some of the same you have been saying and I am going to follow the crowd with my vote.

What am I supposed to do if someone else has already said the same thing before I have, yet I still believe it? Its not like i'm going to throw out some other idea just to be "origional" with my posts

#1323

Yes spaghetti but this has been your m.o. for the whole game. I mean I get you are normally a low poster but you have blended in with suspicions for the whole game, I don't have vote records but I bet you went with the crowd for your votes.

#1324

Roxy wrote:Yes spaghetti but this has been your m.o. for the whole game. I mean I get you are normally a low poster but you have blended in with suspicions for the whole game, I don't have vote records but I bet you went with the crowd for your votes.

Wrong, The only time I was part of the big crowds of votes were when epi was lynched and russ was lynched.

#1325

Also you are leaving yourself with all sorts of outs.
Your vote will go to one of three people that in and of itself is easy for anyone to say - but a blendy person does it for the entire game.

Linky well tbh those votes actually make my nose twitch - everyone knew Edpig was going down so yah I am sure his teamies voted him and with russti well he was civ.

Idk spaghetti we are getting down to the final baddies and I am not voting llama or teeth and probs not Ambray just yet so - here is where I am at.

Where else would you have us look for lynch if not those that I just listed?

#1326

Roxy wrote:Also you are leaving yourself with all sorts of outs.
Your vote will go to one of three people that in and of itself is easy for anyone to say - but a blendy person does it for the entire game.

Linky well tbh those votes actually make my nose twitch - everyone knew Edpig was going down so yah I am sure his teamies voted him and with russti well he was civ.

Idk spaghetti we are getting down to the final baddies and I am not voting llama or teeth and probs not Ambray just yet so - here is where I am at.

Where else would you have us look for lynch if not those that I just listed?

BF possibly. Why are you not voting llama or teeth?

#1327

The only reason you said is in the last post and you just said you are willing to give them a chance.

#1328

Man. Insomnia. Couldn't sleep after all. Cocoa. I tried so hard to stop my lynch. Good luck.

#1329

I want to give what llama has to say a chance to prove itself. It will start by what Teeth may or may not say about llama. For now I will give them tbod.

As for bf the reasons I suspect him are the same as you - blendy.

I want to hear what FH and SVS have to say about llama/Teeth and spaghetti and bf in the morning hopefully the night will provide them clarity.

Rey - whereforartthou? I keep forgetting you are playing what are your thoughts going into this lynch what do you think of your llama suspicion after his latest batch of posts? Spaghetti? Bf? Boogs even? What did your re-read give you insight on?

#1330

I don't think I've been laying low at all. You forgetting I'm playing makes me

I'm still reading. I'm cooking dinner as well, so it's taking a little longer.

#1331

Now you know my pain, rey. LOL

#1332

Just got home from my girlfriend's house. I'm about to go to bed, but I will leave most of you with this when you wake up tomorrow.

I am a civvie. Llama has very good reason to suspect I am a civvie. I would also be willing to vouch for llama being one of the few, and for now possibly the only person, I would be willing to trust in this game. I would be willing to sacrifice myself to prove it (but obviously I can't. Plus I'd rather have a chance to defend myself).

I really think for the next lynch, we need to be taking a hard look at people who have been blendy for almost the entire game, and possible even start considering low posters. I think we're far enough into the game that those could be worthwhile suspicions. Plus it doesn't take that long to read up on someone who has hardly been around to post much.

Basically, I think for the next lynch, we need to be examining an entirely different angle. Or starting over from a clean slate. And if you all decide to lynch myself or llama, then I can guarantee the game WILL for all practical purposes be over for the civs.

#1333

Obvious hints are overly obvious. LOL

#1334

Okay, I've been thinking about the situation with Ambray and me. Here's my analysis of the possibilities.

Possibility One: We are both baddies.

Possibility Two: One of us is good and the other bad.

Possibility Three: We are both good, but one of us has received false info.

I don't think Possibility One is tenable (in fact, I know it to be false, since I know I am good), so I am going to discard that if you don't mind. Since we don't know whether Possibility Two or Three is the case, let's say it is a fifty-fifty chance. Therefore, if you lynch one of use, there is a 75% chance you will get a civvie. If the happens, the other will be implicated as a liar, and you will have little choice but to go after them the following day, regardless of whether Possibility Two or Three is actually the case.

Peruing this avenue leads to:
a 25% percent chance of lynching one baddie.
a 25% chance of lynching a civvie, followed by a baddie
and a 50% chance of lynching two civvies.

Those are not good odds. Given that there are at least two other baddies hiding among the other players, I think it makes much more sense to go after them than to come after Ambray and me, even if one of us turns out to be bad, which I doubt.

#1335

At this point I am feel utterly confused and I think a big part of that is that I haven't made a spreadsheet for this game yet. So I am going to spend some time today putting one together. I know some of the poll results were posted, but for the ones that weren't, I'll go back through the thread and piece them together.

I think llama is taking a big risk by vouching for BWT and as I said, I have been mostly leaning civvie on llama all game long.

I'm wondering if the confusion everyone in this discussion is experiencing is due to misinformation, or making faulty assumptions.

Anyway, I'm going to work on building the spreadsheet and hopefully I'll experience some clarity and be able to share my updated thoughts.

#1336

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I've been thinking about the situation with Ambray and me. Here's my analysis of the possibilities.

Possibility One: We are both baddies.

Possibility Two: One of us is good and the other bad.

Possibility Three: We are both good, but one of us has received false info.

I don't think Possibility One is tenable (in fact, I know it to be false, since I know I am good), so I am going to discard that if you don't mind. Since we don't know whether Possibility Two or Three is the case, let's say it is a fifty-fifty chance. Therefore, if you lynch one of use, there is a 75% chance you will get a civvie. If the happens, the other will be implicated as a liar, and you will have little choice but to go after them the following day, regardless of whether Possibility Two or Three is actually the case.

Peruing this avenue leads to:
a 25% percent chance of lynching one baddie.
a 25% chance of lynching a civvie, followed by a baddie
and a 50% chance of lynching two civvies.

Those are not good odds. Given that there are at least two other baddies hiding among the other players, I think it makes much more sense to go after them than to come after Ambray and me, even if one of us turns out to be bad, which I doubt.

I'm not sure what the point of this is. It's full of, really, non information...stuff that is obvious....you aren't breaking any news here. Or maybe, I just don't understand what you are getting at. I dunno.

#1337

reywaS wrote: I'm not sure what the point of this is. It's full of, really, non information...stuff that is obvious....you aren't breaking any news here. Or maybe, I just don't understand what you are getting at. I dunno.

It may be obvious to you, but it may not be to everyone else. There was some talk that either Ambray or I were lying and that perhaps one of us should be lynched. I was merely attempting to use math and logic to show why that would be a poor choice. I wasn't attempting to break news, I was providing analysis of things we all already know.

I'm not sure what you expect me to say. If you have some earth shattering new information, I'd love to hear it.

#1338

Yes, but my point was that you could use that same logic using any two players in this game. You are taking away people's suspicions in your break down there.

#1339

reywaS wrote:Yes, but my point was that you could use that same logic using any two players in this game. You are taking away people's suspicions in your break down there.

No, this is different than any other two players, because if a lynch of one of us turns up a civvie, it will inevitably lead to a lynch of the other. If you lynch me and find out I was telling the truth, you will be forced to lynch Ambray as well. If you lynch her and she flips civvie, you will be forced to lynch me. Thus, the probability of lynching not one, but two civvies is higher than it would be with other players due to the perceived link between us.

#1340

Just looked at the roles again, unless something is going on in the secrets, they can't vouch for each other and be civvies.

#1341

Quick question, was anyone insanified this past day? The only person I recall being insanified at all this game was BWT. I wonder if that means Elohcin was the Spider?

Because there was no insanification Night 1 and she didn't check in all of Night 1 if I recall so she may have forgotten to send in her night power? And she was killed Night 2 which is the only night we've seen an insanification take place.

I don't know why I hadn't connected that before, but that gives me peace of mind if we can use that to essentially confirm that Elohcin was bad rather than just assuming it.

Thoughts?

I'm almost done getting my spreadsheet sorted out. I just need to gather the vote record for Day 3 since I didn't see that poll posted in the thread.

#1342

Also, to further add to the realization I just had, we know Creeper is still alive since they killed LT last night so Elohcin couldn't have been that role.

#1343

Flyin' High wrote:RIPIYWG Elohcin and He-Man! I was leaning bad for Elohcin and good for He-Man.

Russtifinko wrote:Wow, a guy goes Öb vacation and suddenly he's evil! I'm busy as have only phone access (and limited, at that) until Wednesday, as I stated. You can lynch me before then if you really want, or I can mount a defense when I get home. If you do lynch me, you'll understand why I can personally guarantee either boogs or indi is bad. I'm leaning that it was indi and Herobrine did us a favor, but boogs bears a look just in case.

For the little it's worth, is it so far-fetched that I made a correct judgment? I know it's only my third game, but I'm fairly intelligent. I explained clearly the logical steps I took at the time to conclude it was Epi. I believe BWT's post was saying that in rl I'm a logical guy, so he may believe me at least.

Beyond that, make your own conclusions at least until wed. MP has, apparently, and that worked out very well for us last lynch, so I can't fault people for following him. MP, in a recent post you said you don't feel bad about sometimes being wrong in your suspicions. If I die, I hope this changes your mind some. You have unmatched power in thus game, and killing everyone you suspect may eventually lead to a win since you're experienced and good, but at the expense of some civvie lives. I was thinking maybe I could win this one for the first time, that seems unlikely now. Shame you chose to do this when I can't adequately defend. Good night all
Indi was one of the people that voted for Epignosis on Day 1 so the likelihood of her being bad is pretty slim to nonexistent if you ask me.

Oh wow! When reading back through the thread to get the voting order I came across this post by Russ which I had COMPLETELTY forgotten about!!!

He was the Minecart. Meaning he could track a player to see who targeted them. See my underlined.

#1344

If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.

#1345

thellama73 wrote:If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.

Right, and indi was an Epignosis voter and was killed by Herobrine so it couldn't have been her. Whoever Russ targeted on Night 1 or 2 must have been targeted by both indi and Boogs on the same night and was also either killed or had a kill attempted on them that night which would have led Russ to say that.

After I'm done reading through Day 3 I want to go back through boogs' posts again and also see who may have been defending boogs (blindfaeth immediately comes to mind).

#1346

I don't think Elo was the Spider.

That's a good catch FH, definitely something to look at.

#1347

Flyin' High wrote:
thellama73 wrote:If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.
Right, and indi was an Epignosis voter and was killed by Herobrine so it couldn't have been her. Whoever Russ targeted on Night 1 or 2 must have been targeted by both indi and Boogs on the same night and was also either killed or had a kill attempted on them that night which would have led Russ to say that.

After I'm done reading through Day 3 I want to go back through boogs' posts again and also see who may have been defending boogs (blindfaeth immediately comes to mind).

I had voted for Snow 2 times because I felt he was bad and have been consistent with voting on how I felt. It is my first game so maybe I don't pick up as some others. I felt confident Snow was bad but obviously was proven wrong. Honestly, I really feel the lynch needs to be BWT because Ambray was on to something but I'm not going to say more to give info to the baddies.

As for BF, we both have been busy and haven't been on and posting as much as MP and others. That doesn't make us being low posters "bad" because we have other thing going on. BF has been pretty good seeing who is bad and I think he is also Civ.

Others have been wrong lynching Civs including MP himself leading the Russ lynch.

#1348

Ambray wrote:I don't think Elo was the Spider.

That's a good catch FH, definitely something to look at.

Hrm, so you think she was the Skeleton then? I'd rather her have been the Skeleton because his role can have a much more negative impact on polls.

Any reason why though?

#1349

Boogs wrote:
Flyin' High wrote:
thellama73 wrote:If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.
Right, and indi was an Epignosis voter and was killed by Herobrine so it couldn't have been her. Whoever Russ targeted on Night 1 or 2 must have been targeted by both indi and Boogs on the same night and was also either killed or had a kill attempted on them that night which would have led Russ to say that.

After I'm done reading through Day 3 I want to go back through boogs' posts again and also see who may have been defending boogs (blindfaeth immediately comes to mind).
I had voted for Snow 2 times because I felt he was bad and have been consistent with voting on how I felt. It is my first game so maybe I don't pick up as some others. I felt confident Snow was bad but obviously was proven wrong. Honestly, I really feel the lynch needs to be BWT because Ambray was on to something but I'm not going to say more to give info to the baddies.

As for BF, we both have been busy and haven't been on and posting as much as MP and others. That doesn't make us being low posters "bad" because we have other thing going on. BF has been pretty good seeing who is bad and I think he is also Civ.

Others have been wrong lynching Civs including MP himself leading the Russ lynch.

If you think BF is good, Boogs. Who do you think the remaining baddies are, besides BWT?

#1350

Hi,

I haven't really caught up fully but I will try to alleviate people's feelings about me. First I've seen several people comment that me or others have voted civvies several times, lets keep in mind the only people who know who all the civvies are are the baddies. If you are bad you know everyone else is Indy or civvie, if you are civvie you know nothing.

Secondly MP I know you looked back and saw that at first I was going for boat and then changed my mind. If you look back at that post, the third option really was kind of an afterthought, I didn't even know it was an option until I looked up at the poll. Regardless, if you'll recall I pushed for your lynch day 1 because of your reply thinking it was possibly the bad option, I still don't understand why you changed your mind. It's something we're not allowed to talk about but it was definitely posted after the host post when any PMs would have been sent out is all I'm saying. So I think it was a sound logical jump. When you changed your mind I thought you were a baddie that had been caught and switched his tune to try and save face.

Alright I'll try to fully catch up in a moment I'm on my lunch break. And then address any other concerns I missed at a glimpse.

Who is a baddie mcbadderson?