Watchmen [ENDGAME]

[Marmot]

RIP Llama and Scotty (if you were good and not a ninja'd baddie)

Sorry everyone, I'll be your Timmer for Day 2. Hiking awaits, leaving in one hour in fact, my playing is compromised until Sunday night. I skimmed the thread a few times, but I'm not caught up - had to prepare, shop, pack, etc. Even if I will get Internet occasionally, burning the phone battery by playing Mafia might still be unwise. Anyway, I've asked the host for clemency, so I'm asking you as well. I'll definitely be back full time after this weekend.

Have a good time!

I will also be leaving tomorrow morning for a weekend camping, hiking trip. I'll be back mid-Sunday.

[Marmot]

Sigh. NK'd on night 1 again. Good luck all...

See you in the next game.

[Golden]

RIPIYWG Scotty and Llama.

I think the Comedian should have bided his time a little. I don't really think Scotty was bad.

Unless he is llama, in which case I understand.

I hope llama was Moloch

Although why would the Comedian care? The Watchmen seem, to me, to be more indy than civie. But that's just my read.

Would anyone want to revenge kill Scotty from another game? Or set someone up to seem like a revenge kill? My initial thought on the kill choice.

Epignosis has already confirmed in the thread that the Watchmen are civilian and can't win with mafia. Their win cons are additional.

[Golden]

Well, I had a new suspect I was going to fly in here with, but there is no point now that I see the poll.

Unfortunately, I haven't had any bad vibes from any of these players. I know I would not be a good choice for a lynch.

Guess I'm going to have to read the others back.

[Long Con]

LC, since you've caught up a bit, do you have any suspicions on anyone?

Yes, I suspect Bass, Lorab, Elohcin, and Golden. They're my top four right now, but I'm only caught up to when you asked this question. Maybe later in this post I'll change for some reason. Read on and see!

Ah, I see. So you're saying that Elohcin could be a teammate, since Sloonei lists a bunch of reasons he thinks she is bad, but then votes for nijuu instead.

Yes, exactly. It looks like distancing to me.


*****

Writing this in chunks, and talking to my wife about this game as I went, and I was telling her about The Comedian. I haven't caught up to the Night 1 post yet, but I would be absolutely tickled if The Comedian used his one night kill to kill himself and win the game. Absolutely tickled. That's what I'd do. Epic damn win, easiest win condition I ever did see.

Also, I see that Nite Owl II did this to me and my three poll-friends. Thanks, Danny. I understand why you'd include me, I guess. I think this would have been a much more useful power to employ later in the game, it was a mistake to do it with so little info. My vote will likely be going to Golden. I don't think Metalmarsh is bad at all, and I also have civ feels for Russ.

*****

Speaking of DharmaHelper, can you elaborate on any of the reads you have made just yet, or are you still forming them? I've noted what you've said thus far, but I'm a bit unclear on whom you're considering for your vote at the moment.

I am not sure what to think of Scotty, personally. Something about him is giving me pings, but I don't feel comfortable right now voting for him, since it's 100% a gut read and I'd have a hard time building a case around it.

The crowd you asked about originally (Llama, DDL, G-Man, etc) have my eye as well, and I'd maybe put a vote in there. I still haven't gotten to the sloonei thing yet, so I don't know too much about that. Timmer's self vote is frustrating but I feel like there's enough discussion to put a vote somewhere else.

My read on you is kind of odd. You are way too agreeable and friendly, for one thing, like you're afraid to ruffle feathers and you want to get on everyone's good side. Your massive posts also skeeve me out. You are reminding me of me, when I'm bad and I want to take the leadership role in the thread.

Intriguing observation. Especially considering MP's absolving himself from voting Sloonei and then tacking a mid-to-late vote on Scotty to bring him within one vote of Sloonei and tied with Niju.

Agreed on this one, MP is on my suspicion list as well. Fantastic Day 1 lynch, to see such close margins and still get a baddie!

*****

I think Bass and Lorab (opinion stands as I read, maybe more will step up) are a bit suspicious for saying they think G-Man was trying to dance around the Lie Detector. His statement, in my opinion, is totally kosher as an easy Lie Detect option. If he's a baddie, then a Lie Detect will catch him for that statement, plain and simple.

That's exactly what I think, LC. The wording G-Man used could hardly be considered to be an attempt to avoid the lie detector. Even if it was, the alternative (saying I'm a civilian) also would avoid the lie detector. So I had difficulty really understanding what LoRab was getting at there (bass I felt less suspicious of).

Cool, this response will be used in my analysis of players in my baddie list and how they relate to each other, thank you. Why less of Bass?

Spoiler: show

Well, I read Sloonei's responses to you differently than you did. I'm not sure which of us is wrong. I thought he was saying it was you he found suspicious in BoB, but he hasn't been able to determine whether or not it is relevant because Epi 2.0 is still alive and we don't know his role.

At this point, I'd say I'm highly likely to vote for Ninja today. The only other real issue I have is with G-Man, and I think I've talked myself out of that. I need to revisit the LoRab stuff about lie detectors more closely before I pursue that.

Golden pings me here, equivocating on Sloonei, and then pushing three other suspects. G-Man could be a Sloonei teammate based on this post.

That bit wasn't even about whether or not sloonei was suspicious. It was just MP saying 'we agree on everything' and me pointing out one thing we didn't agere on.

Later on, I was very clear that I didn't find sloonei suspicious, so my vote also looks bad. But I just didn't find him bad. It's pretty much the same kind of badness that I would have looked in Bullets over Broadway had you ended up getting lynched on day one. I'd spent that whole first day saying how I didn't find the case on you persuasive as well. I'm just not very persuaded by cases about adverbs, the word 'interesting', smilies etc. Maybe if I'd had an extra day I might have come around on sloonei. I just don't know, it's impossible to say these things in hindsight when you already know he is bad and it would be wifom anyway.

(However - it is abundantly clear, in case anyone didn't realise it, that this is not actually why llama voted sloonei or why sloonei got caught. It was his reaction to it that nabbed him.)

The Spoiler is Golden's post that compares his views on Sloonei to BoB Day 1. It makes me feel a little better about him... but it's a lot harder to get OUT of a stated baddie list than it is to get IN.

*****

I agree with DDL's definition of a bandwagon. I think Nijuu's Day 1 votes-received qualifies as a bandwagon, because she was at risk of getting lynched. If there were 10 votes on one person and Nijuu got 3, no bandwagon... but as it stands, yes bandwagon. Risk of lynch.

*****

Ha ha, so Scotty was The Comedian. Right? I just caught up to the Night Post. Edit: it looks like no one yet has figured out that Scotty was probably The Comedian. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm the only one who would have shot myself in the head on Night 1 in that role.

RIP Llama, obvious reasons there. The bandwidth isn't always so great in the rural area where I live, so I'll watch these videos when I have time to wait for them, namely the longer ones.

[Long Con]

Oh, and my "Civvie" read of Metalmarsh was based on the fact that I thought he was The Comedian, and I was trying to help him get nightkilled. I thought was was that role because of his claim that he got something form the Night 1 poll... seemed like a good way to make oneself into a target for the baddies.

Now that I think Scotty was The Comedian, MM goes back to an unsure read. What do you do with intentionally mysterious and obstinate players? I'll try and figure out something along the way for MM.

[Golden]

Because Bass didn't raise it, and bass wasn't around much in the days I was thinking of where people used to phrase things deliberately to be able to be lie detected. Essentially, because I think LoRab ought to have known better, but I don't really know if Bass should have.

I don't think Scotty was the Comedian. But I guess it isn't out of the question, if he felt he was a candidate for lynch tomorrow. I'm guessing epi didn't allow self-targetting for that role.

I'm clearly most likely going to have to use my vote self-defensively today.

[Marmot]

Oh, and my "Civvie" read of Metalmarsh was based on the fact that I thought he was The Comedian, and I was trying to help him get nightkilled. I thought was was that role because of his claim that he got something form the Night 1 poll... seemed like a good way to make oneself into a target for the baddies.

Now that I think Scotty was The Comedian, MM goes back to an unsure read. What do you do with intentionally mysterious and obstinate players? I'll try and figure out something along the way for MM.

I can't say I'm upset to see Scotty go. He was on my tail, and I didn't like the way he as going about it.

But I do hope the Comedian got it right.

[LoRab]

Would anyone want to revenge kill Scotty from another game? Or set someone up to seem like a revenge kill? My initial thought on the kill choice.

Pretty sure the Watchmen also have to eliminate Inmates/Moloch to win...

Yes, but they don't nee to be as careeful as whom they leave alive. I see them as more neutral. i can hope tht they are civ neutral based on players. But I cant assume a civ based sttrategy from them. But we'll see.'

Need to see my opinions on the 4 that are there.

[Long Con]

I'm guessing epi didn't allow self-targetting for that role.

I'm guessing he did allow it. Should we... should we ask him?

I'm clearly most likely going to have to use my vote self-defensively today.

It's a burden that any of the four of us are likely to bear.

[Golden]

I'm guessing epi didn't allow self-targetting for that role.

I'm guessing he did allow it. Should we... should we ask him?

I'm clearly most likely going to have to use my vote self-defensively today.

It's a burden that any of the four of us are likely to bear.

I think asking him might be a good idea. Should you do it, or shall I?

[Long Con]

I'm guessing epi didn't allow self-targetting for that role.

I'm guessing he did allow it. Should we... should we ask him?

I'm clearly most likely going to have to use my vote self-defensively today.

It's a burden that any of the four of us are likely to bear.

I think asking him might be a good idea. Should you do it, or shall I?

I'll handle this one. Wish me luck!

Host: Can The Comedian use his nightkill on himself, securing his own win?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating Epignosis.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

What's up with everybody hiking?

Would anyone want to revenge kill Scotty from another game? Or set someone up to seem like a revenge kill? My initial thought on the kill choice.

Pretty sure the Watchmen also have to eliminate Inmates/Moloch to win...

Yes, but they don't nee to be as careeful as whom they leave alive. I see them as more neutral. i can hope tht they are civ neutral based on players. But I cant assume a civ based sttrategy from them. But we'll see.'

Need to see my opinions on the 4 that are there.

I think they're all pro-civ at start, but but if the game gets close to ending without they getting close to fulfilling their wincons, I could see they turning against town to make the game last longer. Rorscharch and Silk Spectre seem to have particulary difficult wincons.

Well, I had a new suspect I was going to fly in here with, but there is no point now that I see the poll.

Unfortunately, I haven't had any bad vibes from any of these players. I know I would not be a good choice for a lynch.

Guess I'm going to have to read the others back.

If you die today, your thoughts will be wasted. I think you should post it now, even if your suspect doesn't get lynched today.

Oh, and my "Civvie" read of Metalmarsh was based on the fact that I thought he was The Comedian, and I was trying to help him get nightkilled. I thought was was that role because of his claim that he got something form the Night 1 poll... seemed like a good way to make oneself into a target for the baddies.

Now that I think Scotty was The Comedian, MM goes back to an unsure read. What do you do with intentionally mysterious and obstinate players? I'll try and figure out something along the way for MM.

I think it might be meaningful that MM was the only player that got something, while only one watchman won the poll.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I had the same thought - the Golden I (think) I know wouldn't be this clumsy.

I'm torn about this point. I have to admit openly defending Sloonei would be pretty sloppy for a baddie, specially a skilled one like Golden. But I hate the WIFOM this creates. I'm not sure if I wanna give him a free pass just because he's "too bad to be a baddie".

[Long Con]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating Epignosis.

Both Golden and I are underestimating him? Even though we have opposite opinions on the matter?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok sorry, you are underestimating Epi. Golden isn't.

[Long Con]

Well, he seems to be online now, so we should know soon.

If I'm wrong about The Comedian, then I consider it a case of overestimating Epignosis, because the idea of him blowing his brains out to win on Night 1 is more awesome than the alternative.

[Bass_the_Clever]

LC why do you think you for are the only ones on the poll? Why did they choose you four?

[Long Con]

I think that Nite Owl II is probably most suspicious of the four of us. Do you have an alternate theory?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's either Nite Owl I or Nite Owl II.

[Epignosis]

Important note: Rule #14 has been altered to reflect my expectations. No one has violated rule 14, either in its previous or current form.

Host: Can The Comedian use his nightkill on himself, securing his own win?

Except for, well, certain rare exceptions, I do not allow self-targeting, ever. And even if I did, Blake killing himself would not be enough to secure his own win.

[Marmot]

I'm guessing epi didn't allow self-targetting for that role.

I'm guessing he did allow it. Should we... should we ask him?

I'm clearly most likely going to have to use my vote self-defensively today.

It's a burden that any of the four of us are likely to bear.

I think asking him might be a good idea. Should you do it, or shall I?

I'll handle this one. Wish me luck!

Host: Can The Comedian use his nightkill on himself, securing his own win?

Ah, but as Epignosis pointed out already, this win condition is in addition to winning alongside the civilians, not in lieu of.

[Marmot]

Bully you again.

[Marmot]

Oh, and my "Civvie" read of Metalmarsh was based on the fact that I thought he was The Comedian, and I was trying to help him get nightkilled. I thought was was that role because of his claim that he got something form the Night 1 poll... seemed like a good way to make oneself into a target for the baddies.

Now that I think Scotty was The Comedian, MM goes back to an unsure read. What do you do with intentionally mysterious and obstinate players? I'll try and figure out something along the way for MM.

I think it might be meaningful that MM was the only player that got something, while only one watchman won the poll.

What do you mean only one watchman won the poll? I'm confused.

[Marmot]

Also, I leave in an hour, and I have no idea who to vote for.

[Long Con]

It's either Nite Owl I or Nite Owl II.

Ah yes, true. I recall seeing that, he can use one of Nite Owl II's powers once in the game. It's more likely that it was Nite Owl II, but maybe Hollis went for the gusto on Nite 1.

Thanks for clarifying, Epi! So it doesn't work like I had thought. But still... ooooh, eh?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@MM: The poll options clearly referred to specific Watchmen.

[Marmot]

Ah, I suppose that's one way to look at it.

[Elohcin]

Good morning all! Four names on the poll sounds good to me. So Epi is seriously telling us, "Hey, there is a baddie among these four." Would he really do that? I guess he would if he felt it was a good thing to do for balance sake. Epi is all about the balance. I am going to do my daily workout and then come back and read through each person on the poll. I will then make my decision. I may not finish my read-throughs and vote until this evening however, as we have a birthday pool party to go to this afternoon. Swimming is much better than hiking

[Marmot]

Good morning all! Four names on the poll sounds good to me. So Epi is seriously telling us, "Hey, there is a baddie among these four." Would he really do that? I guess he would if he felt it was a good thing to do for balance sake. Epi is all about the balance. I am going to do my daily workout and then come back and read through each person on the poll. I will then make my decision. I may not finish my read-throughs and vote until this evening however, as we have a birthday pool party to go to this afternoon. Swimming is much better than hiking

Epignosis didn't pick these names. A player did.

[Elohcin]

I see. I missed that somehow. What do you make of them not being in alphabetical order? Do you think that is just the way the player submitted the names to Epi?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Or is it Epi sending us a subliminal message to vote Golden?

[Elohcin]

I would say LC. They are all in alphabetical order but him.

[Elohcin]

And honestly, without any reread, LC seems most fishy to me. Missed vote. But I am rereading now.

[Elohcin]

I know I said I would workout first...but I decided to wait

[Marmot]

I see. I missed that somehow. What do you make of them not being in alphabetical order? Do you think that is just the way the player submitted the names to Epi?

That makes sense, which would put me at Number 2.

[Long Con]

If you read my explanation of missed vote (really missed Day 1) then I hope you'd not hold it against me. It certainly isn't a baddie scheme that I would ever use.... miss Day 1 and give a real life excuse for it. If you want to punish me for neglecting the game at the start, then at least call it that.

I think that Nite Owl probably submitted the names in that order... and perhaps added me as the fourth at the end because I was unreadable at the time, because my participation wasn't revved up yet.

[Long Con]

(First part of that post was to Elo.)

[Marmot]

I self-voted. I don't feel comfortable voting anyone else right now, and I have to place my vote now.

[Long Con]

Are votes changeable?

[Bass_the_Clever]

Are votes changeable?

No I don't think so.

[timmer]

Quickly reading through the four lynchees before my guests wake up. Read Long Con. I see nothing wrong with his posts at all.

[timmer]

Read through Golden. Obviously his posts regarding Sloonei are bad. The rest of his posts are too mixed to declare anything about. On a normal day, I'd be wanting more than this, but depending on how my reads of the other two go, Golden's posts re: Sloo may be enough to earn him my vote in this truncated lynch poll.

[timmer]

MetalMarsh next. I'm not too pinged by anything in his posts, although there is a general bit of flippancy that could mask baddieness but is more likely just MM being MM. I'm not very concerned about his Day 1 vote, either. Yes, he voted with Sloonei but it was early and Sloo didn't even have a vote yet. I don't see a baddie plot there.

[timmer]

Russ was a quick read. I see nothing wrong in his posts at all.

So I will vote Golden, I don't see any reason not to and it's now or never for my vote today.

[DharmaHelper]

After DnD I'll post my thoughts on the poll options.

[Long Con]

Questions and comments on the roles in this colour. I put it in Spoiler tags because it's not all that Day 2 Lynch relevant.

Spoiler: show

Civilians (9)
Win Con: The Inmates and Moloch the Mystic are Dead. Be alive.

Bernard the News Vendor
He posts his unsolicited opinions in the thread via the Host. Have we seen this? I haven't watched the longer videos yet, so did Bernard's opinion comes through

Dr. Malcolm Long
Walter’s psychoanalyst, in attempting to convince Rorschach that there are good people in the world, can each Night remove someone’s name from the list of people Rorschach needs dead to win.

Unlike the Civilians, Watchmen have superior abilities, but have an additional win condition. Also, unlike the Civilians, Watchmen do not need to be alive at the end to win.

Walter Kovacs / Rorschach
Whenever a civilian or Watchman is lynched, Rorschach will investigate, and track one of the guilty voters on odd Nights. On even Nights, he may choose to kill or spare the person he tracked. What is "tracking", exactly? I've see some different variations of what tracking tells a player.

Win Con: Rorschach does not compromise with evil. Anyone who participates in a civilian or Watchman lynch must be dead for Rorschach to win.
Does that include Rorschach himself? Depending on how this goes, I feel like it's sort of likely that, by endgame, Rorschach will need every single player dead in order to win. I haven't done any math or statistical analysis on it, but... a couple of civ lynches could easily put everyone in the game on Rorschach's list, right? We've done ok so far and haven't pissed Rorschach off, but can we keep it up? My current opinion is... maybe?

Danny Dreiberg / Nite Owl II

Nite Owl has an impressive array of technological wonders at his disposal. He can:

• Apply his advanced polygraph to lie detect one statement.
  Use his sonic amplifier to deliver an anonymous message to the thread through the Host.
  Reinforce his owl suit to protect himself.
  Activate a projectile shield to protect someone else.
  Airlift from the immediate area, taking all but four people off the poll.
  Scan the perimeter and make an alignment check.

These may only be used once.

Win Con: Nite Owl needs Hollis Mason alive to win. If Hollis Mason is dead, then he needs Derf dead.
I just find it hard to believe that Nite Owl used up his four-person-lynch power before even attempting an alignment check on one of us. Perhaps Moloch can emulate or steal/control other players' powers?

Adrian Veidt / Ozymandias

Using his vast wealth and intellect, Veidt can manipulate many things. *Secrets*

Win Con: ???
Or maybe Ozymandias "manipulated" Nite Owl II's power? It really doesn't matter at all whether or not this was Nite Owl II intentional power use or not. I just think it's a really unusual choice because this power would be much more effective if used later.


The Inmates (3)
Has BTSC
Kills each Night.
I think it's safe to assume that if Big Figure and one other baddie die, the nightly kill will be inherited by the last surviving Inmate.
Win Con: Must eliminate the Civilians, the Watchmen, and Moloch the Mystic.

Big Figure
Intimidates someone, buying that person's silence and preventing him or her from voting the next Day. Inherits the kill from Larry or Mike if either of them are dead.

Lawrence
Blocks on Odd Nights. Kills on Even Nights. Bye Sloonei. So no Odd Night blocks, that's good to know.

Michael
Blocks on Even Nights. Kills on Odd Nights.


Edgar Jacobi / Moloch the Mystic
*Secrets*
Dun dun dunnn...

[Dragon D. Luffy]

You didn't watch the Bernard video?

Go ahead and do it. It's one of the best things Epi posted in this game.

It's the one with the guy holding an umbrella. I think.

[Bass_the_Clever]

Yes Bernard use his power. Unless Nite Owl 2 used two of his powers night one.