[ENDGAME] Bullets Over Broadway Mafia

[Sloonei]

Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

To be fair, he wouldn't have been a bad kill from anyone's perspective.

[Golden]

Night 8 kill options:

Civvie ninja.
Event kill (West Wide Story PM had one explanation for this, but it doesn't fit the other facts)
Wildhorn kill with less flavour.
Independent (I think thats very unlikely)

I'm inclined to Occam's razor, myself, but I acknowledge there are other options.

[Marmot]

Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

It kinda changes your theory though. You had DF listed as the Phantom and fingersplints listed as B&C. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Is it vote records?

[Sloonei]

I put my vote on dfaraday a while ago but did not announce it, this is just me doing that.

[Marmot]

Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

It kinda changes your theory though. You had DF listed as the Phantom and fingersplints listed as B&C. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Is it vote records?

If anything, I think it would be the other way around. There is a noticeable trend among the nightkills.

Team Webber has nightkilled Epignosis, Sloonei, FZ., timmer, Scotty, and Epignosis 2.0. All solid mafia players who contribute consistently and don't miss votes.

Team Longhorn has nightkilled Golden, Bass_the_Clever, Sloonei, Canucklehead, and JaggedJimmyJay. A couple solid choices, but Bass and Canucklehead are both much quieter players, making for odder nightkill choices.

So to me, I think whoever is making the nightkills selections for Team Wildhorn is not paying attention as much as the player from Team Webber. Factor in the 1 or 2 missed nightkills, and the theory gets a little more support.

[Marmot]

I'm also only 300 posts behind you two.

[Sloonei]

Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

It kinda changes your theory though. You had DF listed as the Phantom and fingersplints listed as B&C. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Is it vote records?

If anything, I think it would be the other way around. There is a noticeable trend among the nightkills.

Team Webber has nightkilled Epignosis, Sloonei, FZ., timmer, Scotty, and Epignosis 2.0. All solid mafia players who contribute consistently and don't miss votes.

Team Longhorn has nightkilled Golden, Bass_the_Clever, Sloonei, Canucklehead, and JaggedJimmyJay. A couple solid choices, but Bass and Canucklehead are both much quieter players, making for odder nightkill choices.

So to me, I think whoever is making the nightkills selections for Team Wildhorn is not paying attention as much as the player from Team Webber. Factor in the 1 or 2 missed nightkills, and the theory gets a little more support.

i'm not sure i agree with this assessment. There could be any number of explanations for all of these nightkills. The Bass kill attempt could have been an attempt to cause confusion or (perhaps) a reidrection, if such a thing exists in this game, or something else. Canucklehead was a widely accepted town read from what I remember of my time earlier in the game, so it's possible that peron just wanted to get her out of the way on a night where they thought she'd be a safe kill and a more obvious choice would likely be protected.

[Sloonei]

I'm also only 300 posts behind you two.

we better lynch you before you catch up.

[Marmot]

Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

It kinda changes your theory though. You had DF listed as the Phantom and fingersplints listed as B&C. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Is it vote records?

If anything, I think it would be the other way around. There is a noticeable trend among the nightkills.

Team Webber has nightkilled Epignosis, Sloonei, FZ., timmer, Scotty, and Epignosis 2.0. All solid mafia players who contribute consistently and don't miss votes.

Team Longhorn has nightkilled Golden, Bass_the_Clever, Sloonei, Canucklehead, and JaggedJimmyJay. A couple solid choices, but Bass and Canucklehead are both much quieter players, making for odder nightkill choices.

So to me, I think whoever is making the nightkills selections for Team Wildhorn is not paying attention as much as the player from Team Webber. Factor in the 1 or 2 missed nightkills, and the theory gets a little more support.

i'm not sure i agree with this assessment. There could be any number of explanations for all of these nightkills. The Bass kill attempt could have been an attempt to cause confusion or (perhaps) a reidrection, if such a thing exists in this game, or something else. Canucklehead was a widely accepted town read from what I remember of my time earlier in the game, so it's possible that peron just wanted to get her out of the way on a night where they thought she'd be a safe kill and a more obvious choice would likely be protected.

niju has been a pretty accepted town read by everyone. DFaraday does not seem to realize this, and coincidentally, niju is still alive.

[Marmot]

I'm also only 300 posts behind you two.

we better lynch you before you catch up.

Aw shit. I'mma stop posting now.

But seriously, Jay is missing out on all this activity.

[Sloonei]

Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

It kinda changes your theory though. You had DF listed as the Phantom and fingersplints listed as B&C. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Is it vote records?

If anything, I think it would be the other way around. There is a noticeable trend among the nightkills.

Team Webber has nightkilled Epignosis, Sloonei, FZ., timmer, Scotty, and Epignosis 2.0. All solid mafia players who contribute consistently and don't miss votes.

Team Longhorn has nightkilled Golden, Bass_the_Clever, Sloonei, Canucklehead, and JaggedJimmyJay. A couple solid choices, but Bass and Canucklehead are both much quieter players, making for odder nightkill choices.

So to me, I think whoever is making the nightkills selections for Team Wildhorn is not paying attention as much as the player from Team Webber. Factor in the 1 or 2 missed nightkills, and the theory gets a little more support.

i'm not sure i agree with this assessment. There could be any number of explanations for all of these nightkills. The Bass kill attempt could have been an attempt to cause confusion or (perhaps) a reidrection, if such a thing exists in this game, or something else. Canucklehead was a widely accepted town read from what I remember of my time earlier in the game, so it's possible that peron just wanted to get her out of the way on a night where they thought she'd be a safe kill and a more obvious choice would likely be protected.

niju has been a pretty accepted town read by everyone. DFaraday does not seem to realize this, and coincidentally, niju is still alive.

i don't seem to realize this either :o

[Marmot]

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

It kinda changes your theory though. You had DF listed as the Phantom and fingersplints listed as B&C. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Is it vote records?

If anything, I think it would be the other way around. There is a noticeable trend among the nightkills.

Team Webber has nightkilled Epignosis, Sloonei, FZ., timmer, Scotty, and Epignosis 2.0. All solid mafia players who contribute consistently and don't miss votes.

Team Longhorn has nightkilled Golden, Bass_the_Clever, Sloonei, Canucklehead, and JaggedJimmyJay. A couple solid choices, but Bass and Canucklehead are both much quieter players, making for odder nightkill choices.

So to me, I think whoever is making the nightkills selections for Team Wildhorn is not paying attention as much as the player from Team Webber. Factor in the 1 or 2 missed nightkills, and the theory gets a little more support.

i'm not sure i agree with this assessment. There could be any number of explanations for all of these nightkills. The Bass kill attempt could have been an attempt to cause confusion or (perhaps) a reidrection, if such a thing exists in this game, or something else. Canucklehead was a widely accepted town read from what I remember of my time earlier in the game, so it's possible that peron just wanted to get her out of the way on a night where they thought she'd be a safe kill and a more obvious choice would likely be protected.

niju has been a pretty accepted town read by everyone. DFaraday does not seem to realize this, and coincidentally, niju is still alive.

i don't seem to realize this either :o

You're so bad.

:P

[Sloonei]

Tonight's discussion has got me feeling very confident about a DFaradat lynch. I would like it if everyone could offer some comment on him today. I'll do a thorough casing of him tomorrow when I can. However, it would he utterly silly to end the discussion and settle this early in the day. All names are still on the table, but I've now got a clear top suspect. I do not speak for everyone.

Sorry to make this post without substantiating my suspicion first, DFaraday.

[Dom]

ADDENDUM TO THE NIGHT POST HAS BEEN MADE BECAUSE I POSTED IT EARLY

[nijuukyugou]

I am not singling you out per se, dfaraday, but your silence is the most suspicious of that bunch imo, for reasons i highlighted in my early ISO of you. Daisy and SVS are also unique cases.
I feel like splints has been an easy target all game, and am currently leaning slightly town on her.

Disagree with the splints assessment here. She has been mentioned by people, yes, but she has received a total of three votes all game, two of those from DF

I haven't updated my spreadsheet in ages, but plan to do that today. I originally leaned civ on DF, but mainly because I saw him as the easy target, which looks like for very good reason given what's been said in the thread lately (as in, it looks like it's for good reasons that he's on the chopping block). I will come back with a fresh perspective on him later. I tried to look at roles that might have a funereal theme (y'know, for the mystery kill-fail of Scotty) since the host post had a funeral flavor, but couldn't come up with anything (I'm not familiar with a lot of the musicals listed). Also might use the Power of the Internet! to do more research into that, if it is warranted.

That is all for now.

[Sloonei]

I still feel like one of the inactives is scum, and I really don't know what we're supposed to do about that. The only option is to blindly lynch one of them and hope we're right.
I've read over DFaraday's posts and feel like there is a strong case to be made against him. I'll make a big post when i'm on my laptop.

[fingersplints]

JJJ

dfaraday is my strongest suspect atm so will place my vote there for now. Sloonei I am right there with you with still finding nijuu suspicious. I don't know why MM is trying to push her as a confirmed civvie. I don't trust him at all though, so I am not really surprised by that. I would consider voting for him or nijuu as well.

nijuu I'm positive I have had more then 3 votes actually with the changing votes. (off the top of my head the two you mention from DF, some from nutella, you at least once I think, one from Golden when silenced, and another from JJJ) Just because they changed off of me doesn't mean they weren't cast.

Golden, I vote as late as I can every single game (I feel like a broken record as I know I have said this before), but have needed to especially in this one where I have been under considerable suspicion for days. I'm not sure how anyone can fault me for holding my vote to possibly save myself.

[fingersplints]

I don't know what to do about the inactives either. I agree that one is still likely scum, but from reading their posts I have no idea which one.

[Sloonei]

Why are you suspicious of niju and/or mm, splints?

[Golden]

Golden, I vote as late as I can every single game (I feel like a broken record as I know I have said this before), but have needed to especially in this one where I have been under considerable suspicion for days. I'm not sure how anyone can fault me for holding my vote to possibly save myself.

I can't, really. I can't honestly mesh your posts so well with you being bad. Like I say, I'm working on process of elimination. I wouldn't choose to lynch you where there are viable alternatives for who is bad.

[Marmot]

JJJ

dfaraday is my strongest suspect atm so will place my vote there for now. Sloonei I am right there with you with still finding nijuu suspicious. I don't know why MM is trying to push her as a confirmed civvie. I don't trust him at all though, so I am not really surprised by that. I would consider voting for him or nijuu as well.

nijuu I'm positive I have had more then 3 votes actually with the changing votes. (off the top of my head the two you mention from DF, some from nutella, you at least once I think, one from Golden when silenced, and another from JJJ) Just because they changed off of me doesn't mean they weren't cast.

Golden, I vote as late as I can every single game (I feel like a broken record as I know I have said this before), but have needed to especially in this one where I have been under considerable suspicion for days. I'm not sure how anyone can fault me for holding my vote to possibly save myself.

I believe niju was only talking about official votes.

Suggestion for you, and anyone else for that matter. The singer appears to still be active and alive. Who do you suppose it could be? I'm not looking for an answer from anyone, but it's worth looking back at the songs.

[Sloonei]

I think the singer should be obvious at this point.

[Golden]

I think the singer should be obvious at this point.

I think that was MM's point.

[S~V~S]

Well, if that is the case, I will be disappoint. The person in mind is one of the people I think of as being vehemently opposed to info or hints or role claims of any kind. So using that role in that fashion is something I would not expect of this individual, which was why i was somewhat resistant to the obviousness of it all. At first I thought that perhaps the Singer just really, really trusted that person quite a bit.

i did not think that the person believed to be the Singer would in fact blatantly role claim. So this added a bit to my *meh* attitude here. Sorry, I will get over myself & I am here to catch back up again.

[S~V~S]

Looking back, I am intrigued by the people backing Ninja up, and implying anyone who does not get on the hayride with them has to be bad. We had one recruit; perhaps another? I dunno, perhaps i am just tunneling. I am finding all the original case on her inexplicably negated by something I don't think she would do on her own to be hella confusing, and less than convincing.



I am gonna reread Epi. I was feeling kinda demoralized about this game, but this whole thing has me scratching my head a bit.

[Golden]

Looking back, I am intrigued by the people backing Ninja up, and implying anyone who does not get on the hayride with them has to be bad.

I do not think anyone implied that anyone who thought otherwise 'has to be bad'. And circumstances have moved on several days since that point anyway, to the point that now I just think anyone not 'getting on the hayride' is simply choosing not to believe the obvious truth.

I see no reason not to believe someone who was primed for lynch wouldn't use their role to save themselves. If someone has the civilian ability to stop a lynch, they frequently use it on themselves - and frequently earn town cred through doing so. What's the difference?

[S~V~S]

Using a power behind the scenes and role claiming are not the same.

I know she hates that crap; I am having issues believing she would do it. And iirc, MM said, when someone questioned why everyone was so sure Ninja was a civ said to them, "You're bad".

I may be tunneling or paranoid, but if there was one recruit, there could be more, and I don't get the eagerness to just drop the whole thing based on a role claim. Either that or perhaps there is some buddying going on if I am judging her incorrectly. Which is very possible.

[S~V~S]

I want to hear from her; that might give me some understanding of this.

[nijuukyugou]

Finally updated my spreadsheet. I'll look at it more closely in a moment, but it looks like I need to address something first because I know it's driving her mad

I want to hear from her; that might give me some understanding of this.

I assume you're referring to me? And you're right - you know my hatred of role-claiming. I haven't claimed any role, so you're not crazy if you've scoured my posts for anything of the sort and didn't find anything There has been deduction and speculation as to what I am based on happenings in the game, not in what I've posted. I'm not sure if that answered your questions or eased your mind, so let me know if something else needs addressing.

[S~V~S]

Do you think that someone who has a gossip role should use it as a platform for hard role hinting?

[Golden]

Using a power behind the scenes and role claiming are not the same.

I think no-one has ever suggested ninja has role claimed though.

But I do think she has used a power behind the scenes in a way that has me thinking she is civ.

[Golden]

Ninja, purple looks good on you.

[S~V~S]

Using a power behind the scenes and role claiming are not the same.

I think no-one has ever suggested ninja has role claimed though.

But I do think she has used a power behind the scenes in a way that has me thinking she is civ.

She knows what i am talking about. And as I view it, using that power that way is tantamount to role claiming.

[S~V~S]

It's like this; I have a theory. It could be wrong, it's just a theory. But I was thinking that Ninja was a baddie, and maybe the other role was recruited. And the recruit said what they said without maybe clearing it with her first. Or something of that nature.

Because i very seriously doubt Ninja would use a role in that way. I just do. Unless she has different thoughts on that kind of thing that I *think* she has.

It is hard to be euphemistic about all of this, and it is normally not something I would do, but this can of worms was opened already by the people pointing out that she could not be bad, cause, hey look, it should be obvious.

[Golden]

SVS, I think this probably an agree to disagree in terms of whether it would be role hinting, but putting that aside I would note that there is pretty decent evidence that there isn't another recruit out there.

We know they were recruited by LC, who died after only three nights and could recruit on odd nights only - giving him exactly two opportunities. He also could only recruit three specific roles. I calculate the odds of him successfully hitting would be 0.08%. Add to that, we had specific evidence in the night post of LC recruiting BR (the two hooded figures shaking hands on night three).

[S~V~S]

How do you know the team other than LC's did or did not have something similar? Like I said, i am having problems accepting this as something Ninja would do.

[S~V~S]

I mean this whole thing is circumstantial, based on a gossip post, pretty much. And vague roles with no powers listed. I guess i am just not seeing this in terms of black & white as much as you are, Golden.

[Golden]

I mean this whole thing is circumstantial, based on a gossip post, pretty much. And vague roles with no powers listed. I guess i am just not seeing this in terms of black & white as much as you are, Golden.

I don't have a problem with that, SVS. I get where you are coming from. I understand why it's not black and white. I just think there is enough context to what has happened in the game for me to feel comfortable another recruit is very unlikely (for instance - team 1 starting with 4 mafia, team 2 with three, the recruit ability creating balance).

But mostly, it's just because I have a very specific world view about how to approach this game at this point. It's not just ninja I'm excluding from suspicion - its people like you and daisy as well - and the reason I'm doing it is because I am certain those people can't be phantom or Bonnie & Clyde and I'm more interesting in catching those two first and then seeing if there are still baddies left.

[S~V~S]

When i think of all the games i have played, "It's so obvious" seems ...too obvious, you know?

I know you think Ninja is a civvie. What is your opinion on Metalmarsh?

As i said, I may be tunneling a bit. But when that night post was made, then you came out saying, "well, ninja is off the table", and then MM chimed in with the same song. Like it was a given, a FACT. Look at the role descriptions; nothing is a FACT.

Linki~ you only are interested in catching baddies on one team?

[Golden]

Those two are on different teams.

Sometimes the obvious is the obvious because it's true. Honestly, in this game I think the mafia's best move might have been killing off some of the inactives. But I wouldn't have - it's easy to say in hindsight.

My opinion on MM is that I have no reason to rule him out as possible mafia, but that I think he is less likely to be bad than DF. Also, I think that he role hinted, but it's not a difficult role hint to test. I'd still choose to lynch DF first.

[nijuukyugou]

Do you think that someone who has a gossip role should use it as a platform for hard role hinting?

Short answer: No, with a "depends" clause.

Long answer: It depends on one's definition of hard role hinting, and that would be difficult to determine to make everyone happy. The job of the role is to express to fellow civs who should and should not be under scrutiny and lynched, and that may include the gossiper his/herself. Listing names of who should go and who shouldn't go could be considered role-hinting, by process of elimination. I agree with Golden here - other roles allow for protection, blocking, and gathering information behind the scenes about fellow players, and civs will use them to protect themselves if they're pretty sure they'll be targeted. The gossip role must maintain a balance since it's much more public than the more behind-the-scenes roles, but using it to lead civs away from lynching a civ, including the gossiper, by allowing them to do their own guesswork without the gossiper specifically saying, "Hey look, it's me, [insert player name here], I'm the gossiper!" is valid to me.

Now that you mention it, I can see your perplexity - I think a lot of it stems from Golden's (and others) seeing it as black and white. Me, I like being in the gray area.

Ninja, purple looks good on you.

[Golden]

Grey, or purple? You just want it both ways.

[S~V~S]

Going to bed, i will be back in the AM. I am sure MM will "No U" me, lol.

Sorry to come out of the clear blue with this, but I think what i think. I left the thread after the whole "Well it's obvious" thing since the thing that was obvious to me was that I did not think she would do that, and yet another exoneration in a game based on role hints/claims etc was too much for me. And I am still not sure I think she would. So i am theorizing ways to account for that post. The recruit thing was one way, but i am sure we could think of others. We're smart folk.

In any case, i should have spoke my mind rather than walked away. I like speaking my mind.

Linki, thanks Ninjajujube~ food for thought.

[nijuukyugou]

Grey, or purple? You just want it both ways.

I can, with heather!

[nijuukyugou]

Going to bed, i will be back in the AM. I am sure MM will "No U" me, lol.

Sorry to come out of the clear blue with this, but I think what i think. I left the thread after the whole "Well it's obvious" thing since the thing that was obvious to me was that I did not think she would do that, and yet another exoneration in a game based on role hints/claims etc was too much for me. And I am still not sure I think she would. So i am theorizing ways to account for that post. The recruit thing was one way, but i am sure we could think of others. We're smart folk.

In any case, i should have spoke my mind rather than walked away. I like speaking my mind.

Linki, thanks Ninjajujube~ food for thought.

[Sloonei]

What were the roles that were mentioned along with that corruption role?

[Sloonei]

How do you know the team other than LC's did or did not have something similar? Like I said, i am having problems accepting this as something Ninja would do.

My thinking this whole game has been that only Team Wildhorn was able to recruit because they started the game with one fewer member than Team Webber, and the recruitment/corruption was a way of balancing that. Do we really even know what "corruption" entails in this game?

[Marmot]

SVS, I think this probably an agree to disagree in terms of whether it would be role hinting, but putting that aside I would note that there is pretty decent evidence that there isn't another recruit out there.

We know they were recruited by LC, who died after only three nights and could recruit on odd nights only - giving him exactly two opportunities. He also could only recruit three specific roles. I calculate the odds of him successfully hitting would be 0.08%. Add to that, we had specific evidence in the night post of LC recruiting BR (the two hooded figures shaking hands on night three).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think LC could only recruit one player, but there were three roles who were recruitable.

[Sloonei]

SVS, I think this probably an agree to disagree in terms of whether it would be role hinting, but putting that aside I would note that there is pretty decent evidence that there isn't another recruit out there.

We know they were recruited by LC, who died after only three nights and could recruit on odd nights only - giving him exactly two opportunities. He also could only recruit three specific roles. I calculate the odds of him successfully hitting would be 0.08%. Add to that, we had specific evidence in the night post of LC recruiting BR (the two hooded figures shaking hands on night three).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think LC could only recruit one player, but there were three roles who were recruitable.

Are we allowed to name those three roles in the thread?

[S~V~S]

That is very possible re which team can recruit. But I am still finding this whole thing hard to swallow. I am looking to brainstorm possibilities (admittedly almost impossible in a game with most roles basically secret).

I am not a fan of unequivocally ruling things out when all possibilities are necessarily unknown via vague/secret roles. I am also going to read up on what the case on Faraday is other than blendiness. If it is only blendiness, I won't be voting for him.