Recruitment Mafia IV: Dawn of the Clans (End Game)

[DharmaHelper]

I believe Syn when he says if he was recruited he would have outted his team already.

[DharmaHelper]

Especially because he'd never asked if that was ok :P

[Ricochet]

Well, I tried to check on JTM, but most games he played are barely updated with reveals and links to lynches/kills, so blech. Until some proof, I doubt he'd genuinely do that.

[DharmaHelper]

SVS aint on the poll I dont know who to vote for.

[timmer]

After me, please lynch SVS, Llama, possibly Tranq and bea. I still believe I wasn't wrong about my day 5 recruitment theory, but I suppose that's my ego at work. Also, I'm still confused about Sorsha. I wanted to but didn't have time to look into Rico's death. It'd be sly as hell though, if a baddie killed his own teammate and then used another teammate to rez him and somewhat clear him.

Considering Wilgy's role, and this post before he died, I'd say a lynch of the llama, Tranq or Bea would be wise to look at. I'll examine the status of those three.

[Scotty]

I believe Syn when he says if he was recruited he would have outted his team already.

He hasn't been outed yet.

But I also agree that he would have taken out his hoop earrings if he were getting down to the wire, hence asking before hand, since it might be headed that way.

In re: Rico- I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment on BWT and had in my notes as such as well, knowing full well that saying so would probably get me killed too since we can't lynch him today.

Linki- def timmer

[Marmot]

Catch up time!

Voting TH while I do some reading.

[timmer]

Been up since 9 on 4 hours sleep. Store is burning down yet again. 5 call offs in 2 days and now the phones are broke. Voting wily again because I'm not sure if I will make it back and because silence after not being lynched seems too convinent.

So a quick read back through Bea's posts shows some possible baddieness, I'd say. She was passively supportive of SVS all game, saying things like "yeah, always gotta watch her" but never quite agreeing with anyone's case against her enough to vote for her. Also, the above post? I searched all of Bea's posts from previous games, and there are times in the past when she has said she hates voting for silenced people, but she sure had no problem voting DrWilgy.

It's enough to make her a main suspect, I'll move onto Tranq.

[timmer]

Tranq's posts don't really cry out baddie to me. He seems to not be posting as much as I remember posting back in the day, but he hasn't gone after anyone good or supported anyone bad.

[timmer]

llama has a lot of posts, and I id a quick skim. I see baddie hunting, I see a breakdown of Bubbles' interactions. It'd be pretty ballsy if llama has on that team, but it doesn't mean he isn't on Azuna's squad.

I don't know, none of them are a slam dunk, but I agree with DH that Synonym seems honest about recruitment.

I also need to revisit my stance on TH in a bit.

[Scotty]

Yo Ahriman. If you're watching the thread, I think it might be a good idea to redirect Ubz's kill tonight..

[Ricochet]

After me, please lynch SVS, Llama, possibly Tranq and bea. I still believe I wasn't wrong about my day 5 recruitment theory, but I suppose that's my ego at work. Also, I'm still confused about Sorsha. I wanted to but didn't have time to look into Rico's death. It'd be sly as hell though, if a baddie killed his own teammate and then used another teammate to rez him and somewhat clear him.

Considering Wilgy's role, and this post before he died, I'd say a lynch of the llama, Tranq or Bea would be wise to look at. I'll examine the status of those three.

I'm trying to revisit everyone (that's right, folks, a Rico Re-Read), but so far, I have bea as unlikely on Uzzbb camp, because that was one hell of a long bussing of Bubbles, if so. In fact, almost fed-to-the-lions kind o' bussing. I couldn't read too well if she may be on Azura's side, but Wilgy's post could add more perspective, sure.

linki: Timmer, can you link to bea's silencing stance from previous games, that you found? I think that's a pretty frequent stance from most players, in general, so it could technically come back to hurt anyone who said it, on the long term, whenever they do the opposite.

[Ricochet]

Yo Ahriman. If you're watching the thread, I think it might be a good idea to redirect Ubz's kill tonight..

Warden nullifies Ubzy's immunity / Chaos switches his role, Ahriman direct Uzby's kill back to him.

WHAMMY

[Marmot]

DrWilgy is dead? I feel very alone in the world. Someone console me

[timmer]

Scotty, go to Bea's posts, use "search user's posts" and type in the word "silenced". Skim down, you'll see some posts where she mentions things like "is this one of those few times where voting for someone is silenced is okay? I don't usually like doing that" etc.

LMK if you can't find it, I'll go find it for you later.

@MM

[aapje]

Updated my vote graphs:
Day 1 short
Day 1 full
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5: Lost my list of switched votes. Does anyone have the full voting record?
Day 6
Day 7

[Scotty]

Scotty, go to Bea's posts, use "search user's posts" and type in the word "silenced". Skim down, you'll see some posts where she mentions things like "is this one of those few times where voting for someone is silenced is okay? I don't usually like doing that" etc.

LMK if you can't find it, I'll go find it for you later.

@MM

I'll look when I get home later tonight.

I haven't really harped on bea much this game because I've been trying to focus my main attention on one or two people at a time. But she has been in my soft focus for the similar reason Sorsha was there- cutesy, apologetic excuse posts, not really raising any hairs or being too divisive over specific issues. When someone is too nice or non committal, either they are a) me in a romantic relationship or b) trying to appear a certain way in the game.

[Roxy]

llama has a lot of posts, and I id a quick skim. I see baddie hunting, I see a breakdown of Bubbles' interactions. It'd be pretty ballsy if llama has on that team, but it doesn't mean he isn't on Azuna's squad.

I don't know, none of them are a slam dunk, but I agree with DH that Synonym seems honest about recruitment.

I also need to revisit my stance on TH in a bit.

What up Timmerbad?

Hi everyone sorry to have been away but as you may or may not know I have a game I am trying to get ready.

I am honestly not sure about anyone aorn. There is only a handful of players I would trust to help me find my way to a vote.

I will read back a few pages and bbialb to chat.

[Roxy]

SVS aint on the poll I dont know who to vote for.

What do you think of llama? Or Timmerbad?

[Scotty]

SVS aint on the poll I dont know who to vote for.

What do you think of llama? Or Timmerbad?

Welcome back, Roxy!

So are you saying you trust DH for advice?

[Roxy]

SVS aint on the poll I dont know who to vote for.

What do you think of llama? Or Timmerbad?

Welcome back, Roxy!

So are you saying you trust DH for advice?

uh---no. Where do you get that from?

[aapje]

So who did Wilgy vote for?
Day 1:
Unfurl (unrecruited)
Rico
BWT
Pretty meaningless since no night actions had taken place yet.

Day 2:
llama
MP
Bass1.0 (unrecruited)
Has tracked someone during Night 1. Votes for Bass because he is uncomfortable voting for Golden.

Day 3:
Himself
SVS
Boomslang
This night he has tracked btsc. Notably the first time he voted for SVS. Did he maybe check her and find out she has btsc? Moves his vote late in the lynch to Boomslang, the runner up to Golden. Second day in a row he has protected Golden.

Vote registered for SVS

Out of everything I've observed, I'm uncomfortable with how hard both SVS and Rey went in on Golden. I still think Golden is neutral, he's posting too much without doing anything that makes me think he's any worse than neutral. SVS is also one of the players that received a vote day 1, meaning there's a chance for her to be Azura. I'll change my vote to save Golden if needed, but only if he doesn't self vote.

Also, don't strafe too far away from the players that avoided lynch day 1 (this includes me... I know...).

Day 4:
Sorsha: Thinks she may have framed Golden.
Boom: comfortable placeholder
SVS: Hardly mentions her all day.
Night 3 ended early so probably no new info. If he did get his PM in on time he tracked another person.

Day 5: (Lost my notes so going by what he posted)
Timmer:

Spoiler: show

Okay, so I'm likely only going to skim the game up to this point, I just never have time for Day 0's, it seems. I arbitrarily chose Position 2 in the poll.

Something being done "arbitrarily" Is a trigger.

It's actually quite unlikely. An unrecruit is most likely. Aren't about 3/4 of us neutral at this time?

Obsessing over neutrality is a trigger, this isn't the only quote where he does this.

^I like Epig's thinking so far. Golden's chatter about recruiting felt a bit phoney-chatty.

Not explaining what is actually phony is a trigger (if by phoney-chatty you meant phony).

Furthur to this, why does someone being a recruiter mean anything? If they are one, they might be a civ recruiter, which means eliminating them will hurt the civ cause. There are equal numbers of bad and good recruiters. And once you are eventually recruited to a team, that's your team, so why gun for a potential recruiter when that may end up your own team down the road?

This right here is also my trigger.

It's more of a sense than anything, but Epig kind of nailed it with his colour coding.

Here's a trigger, I noticed an obsession with Epi before he died.

All of this to say that the odds of me sussing out a baddie recruiter today, with such a mess of acting and lying going on is low. And I don't have the time to try to find minutiae that would suggest it.

So I'm going to stick to the idea of voting for someone who is not around, for today. And I will be at work later and so will not be posting too much today.

Not wanting to catch baddies is my trigger.

So as I'm reading along, the endless back and forths regarding Golden and MP truck along. They haven't play out yet and I've got a lot of pages to go, but for now I will say that I don't see a problem with MP's game, I'm a fan of his thinking in this game. Golden's playing a sort of similar game, but he seems to be shying away from admitting that his stance on Epig was odd, even for this game. SVS keeps mentioning it, but he isn't directly addressing it, even as he says he is. I'm liking MP more than Golden. And SVS' game is topnotch.

JJJ pointed this out, but I would also like to address how bullshit this is.

Fourth, the few people who are actually trying to make normal cases all get my thumbs up, and my appreciation, as doing as much as proven to be beyond me so far this game. I note SVS' and rye's thoughts on Golden (while I don't put as much weight on the "never seen this Golden before" stuff {see point #1}, I do appreciate her thoughts on his evasiveness, etc.), also Canuckle's point on Tiny Bubbles.

Fifth, where I'm still at a conundrum is that (and take this with whatever grain of salt you want, I recommend Kosher personally) I still have no team and thus I'm not sure which kind of case to get behind, as any of them could affect my future employer. For instance, Canuckle makes a very good point about TinyBubbles. She seems like she's recruited and unsure of how to act. But what if that's true but Tiny's team will be my team?

Still being obsessed with teams is my trigger, hopping on the TinyBubbles boat so quickly without providing anything that hasn't been said already is also my trigger (especially since I'm pretty sure TinyBubbles is neutral).
Sidenote: Timmer seems to be loving SVS during the Golden debates... Don't forget this.

voted for tinybubbles.

I agree with the basic thrust of the case against tiny bubbles, her posts have been the epitome of both wishy and washy. But moreso, I'm liking the gameplay of the people voting her, so I'm willing to follow their lead on this.

Not providing anything ever, but constantly bandwagoning is my final trigger.

JJJ I agree with everything you said, you noticed some things I did. Thank you for confirming my suspicion. I won't be changing my vote from Timmer.

Not sure good Turnip, I collected the data though and thought I should share. See if anyone smarter than I noticed a pattern or something. Wilgy, staring into the eyes of TurnipHead, remembers times of old and smiles. Wilgy thinks back on his schooldays and old usernames. He remembers that he used to be a turnip as well. GoldenTurnip to be exact.

Timmer seems to be loving SVS during the Golden debates... Don't forget this.

This part caught my eye.
SVS, again.
Night 4 he had an alignment check. The day he defended TB. Seems plausible he checked TB after her failed lynch and found her to be unrecruited. This would point to TB being the Day 5 recruit.

Spoiler: show

Public Announcement

Ubzargan has recruited!

Found what I needed! <3 The most recent recruit was at 7:59 on the 31st.

Ok, some theorems as to what happened:
1. Bubbles was bad from before day 4. This means that bubbles took some heat, was saved by a teammate, took part in killing someone who suspected her, received more heat, failed in a defense, and then gave up. Possibly because she ran out of things to defend herself with.
2. Bubbles was recruited during day 5. This means that bubbles took heat, was saved by a non-teammate, was framed for killing someone who suspected her, received more heat, failed in a defense, submitted for a contest to be recruited, was recruited, took a fall for the team.

So, it should be clear that I don't believe in theory 1. If theory 1 is true, then I was completely played a fool. It doesn't make sense to me for Ubooboo to kill Unfurl if Bubbles was a team mate before day 5, due to that implicating Bubbles even more so.

Theory 2 is what I propose actually happened. If you pay attention to the timing of the recruitment day 5 it makes sense. It would also explain why Bubbles didn't respond all day, she was just added to a team. Hence she appeared and spoke to us from beyond the grave the moment the day resolved. this would make sense if Bubbles didn't want to spew that she was recruited, so she chose silence over anything worse. This is reflective of her later more emotional posts, and how they were much more volatile... And her being recruited at 7:59 also explains why she would let me take the fall defending her, instead of her defending herself. I posted her defense 6 min before the day 5 recruitment (and that's not including the time it took to write it). I actively gave her no reason to respond... I'm sorry everyone I almost screwed everything up.

Now, something here that's interesting that I noticed trying to piece this puzzle together.

I held my vote until I was sure I would not need it to defend. I am not as sure about Bubbles as are some, Wilgys extreme desire to save her almost made me vote for her, but i will stick to my own suspicion and vote Sorsha.

I would like to point out that it contradicts this previous post,

I read some of Bubbles posts in other games, and I was like *meh* about her being bad. Anything is possible, but she sounds about the same in those games as she does here. Although i disagree with him on Timmer, I do tend to agree with Wilgy on Bubbles.

If anyone is trying to tread lightly around Bubbles, It was SVS.

Maybe I'm stretching here, but maybe the real reason SVS held her vote was to see if my defense on her teammate would work or not. It kinda makes sense, considering she had to wait to see who her teammate was as well as following my defense.

Last thing to point out, SVS, why did you ignore this?

Spoiler: show

So you think BR made me a baddie recruiter becasue I would like it? Whether I have a "thing" for being a baddie has no bearing on role assignment. One & Three don't go together.

You're just stringing stuff together, when your attempt to save Bubbles with your Timmer suspicions did not fly, you jumped onto DHs post.

SVS, that doesn't make sense, I've been voting for you for awhile now. I didn't list 1 and 3 as cause and effect, I listed it as possibilities. Your pursuit of Golden is what throws me for aloop the most. I agree with what Rico said.

Day one there was a 12 or 13 player tie I think.

Oh that?

Wilgy, so your case is three points, one of which is that SVS likes being bad (WTF?) and one of which is that she is one of a ton of people who didn't die from a hugely tied lynch? And this is because you assume one of them was Ubby? What about Terras protecting all Guardians that day?

If that's your case, I'm moving' on, sorry dude.

Uggg... Timmer, I have stated previous the conditions for my vote and didn't want to go through it again. Her pursuit of Golden didn't feel genuine when I read it. I didn't have time to quote everything at the time, due to working on house renovations. Your WTF would be understandable if I hadn't already spoken about SVS being SK in a open role choice environment. I don't assume one of them is Ububudoo, but the possibility is there and we shouldn't forget that. Statistic wise, if we go after a Golden hounder, she's our best choice.

I'm currently packing for the move tomorrow, so I don't have alot of time left for mafia today, nor will I tomorrow. I'll chime in when I get the chance.

More suspicion of SVS.
This post seems to confirm Wilgy checked TB on Night 4.

Day 6:
SVS: Yet again.
First day Wilgy received most votes.

After me, please lynch SVS, Llama, possibly Tranq and bea.

Night 5 he was able to track the amount of votes each player ended up with.

Day 7:
SVS
LR
LA
Tranq
Synonym
I may have missed some since Wilgy was silenced that day. Night 6 he got to track btsc again.

TL;DR: I think Wilgy knew SVS had btsc and that when he checked TB when she was still neutral.

[nutella]

Yeah fuck it I'm growing increasingly wary of the Syn wagon. Switching my vote to Rey, who continues to refuse to participate and is lurking in the background in a way that is far from typical of him.

[Roxy]

All I am feeling right now is that Timmer is bad - going with my gut on this. *votes*

[Roxy]

to me the votes on Synonym seem easy even after their explanation and saying that they would out their entire team if bad - why would Synonym even say this if bad? Especially after subbing in?

[DharmaHelper]

I'm gonna vote aapje

[Spacedaisy]

I think aapje is the one making sense here, and I think it gives creedance to the idea that Bubbles was recruited by Uz later, which would line up with llama's change in how he treated her if he is on that team, which I still believe he is.

I'm considering a vote for SVS myself. Despite not trusting llama, I think more solid evidence after the wilgy lynch points to SVS.

[DharmaHelper]

I think aapje is the one making sense here, and I think it gives creedance to the idea that Bubbles was recruited by Uz later, which would line up with llama's change in how he treated her if he is on that team, which I still believe he is.

I'm considering a vote for SVS myself. Despite not trusting llama, I think more solid evidence after the wilgy lynch points to SVS.

Wait for itttttttttttt......

[Spacedaisy]

Wait for what?

[DharmaHelper]

Wait for what?

Are you dead set on voting for SVS?

[Spacedaisy]

Yes. I would say yes.

[DharmaHelper]

Yes. I would say yes.

I mean, are you *dead* Set on voting SVS?

[aapje]

I'm gonna vote aapje

Really? I think you should be able to tell I'm not bad

I think aapje is the one making sense here, and I think it gives creedance to the idea that Bubbles was recruited by Uz later, which would line up with llama's change in how he treated her if he is on that team, which I still believe he is.

I'm considering a vote for SVS myself. Despite not trusting llama, I think more solid evidence after the wilgy lynch points to SVS.

SVS was NK'd by Caelia

[Spacedaisy]

Lol, I'm an idiot. I had read it before too, I just forgot. Well good, lol

[DharmaHelper]

I'm gonna vote aapje

Really? I think you should be able to tell I'm not bad

I think aapje is the one making sense here, and I think it gives creedance to the idea that Bubbles was recruited by Uz later, which would line up with llama's change in how he treated her if he is on that team, which I still believe he is.

I'm considering a vote for SVS myself. Despite not trusting llama, I think more solid evidence after the wilgy lynch points to SVS.

SVS was NK'd by Caelia

Nobody follows my votes anyway.

[aapje]

I'm gonna vote aapje

Really? I think you should be able to tell I'm not bad

I think aapje is the one making sense here, and I think it gives creedance to the idea that Bubbles was recruited by Uz later, which would line up with llama's change in how he treated her if he is on that team, which I still believe he is.

I'm considering a vote for SVS myself. Despite not trusting llama, I think more solid evidence after the wilgy lynch points to SVS.

SVS was NK'd by Caelia

Nobody follows my votes anyway.

Nonetheless you should know better :P

[DharmaHelper]

Well a Syn vote is off the table, so.

[Synonym]

I'm not entirely certain how this is still an issue but I'd honestly like to see a better case then "I don't like that he wants to break the rules".

At least SVS was suspicious of my predecessor.

And let's clear this up. 1. It wasn't a rule when I said I'd out and this is my first game here so I didn't know it was a taboo. I've used it as a shield from recruitment on other sites to great effect, mafia won't recruit someone they know will out them. 2. When it was clarified that it's more a spirit of the game consideration rather than a hard rule I conceded that I wouldn't do it and I'll abide by that. I'm not going to try and argue semantics that it wasn't a rule to begin with and that it's unfair. I see the validity and accepted it so aapje can get off his high horse. 3. I work 16 hour days and have no phone during those hours. I play for approximately two hours a day across a number of sites. I lose track of which phase we're in, especially with these early phase-end abilities.

So once again, I'm not mafia and I have played the best game I can under these circumstances. I do not want to be recruited and am quite happy to keep reading and voting as I have been. If the town agrees that I'm the best lynch choice then it won't hurt their final quota but it won't get them any closer to eradicating any other mafia.

[Spacedaisy]

Well a Syn vote is off the table, so.

Did I miss why?

[aapje]

I have also been having a running discussion with LC over night actions. I have missed every single deadline thus far due to time differences. I have subsequently learned that I'm allowed to submit actions in advance of the phase change.

Checking back I noticed there was only 1 missing pm on both N4 and N5. So basically if anyone knows they missed a pm on any of those nights they will know for certain Synonym is lying and likely a baddie. If not then it's very unlikely he is bad.

Which reminds me:
@Hosts:
How many missing for Night 6?

Also high horse? You threatened to ruin the game for 30+ players. That's a dick move and I stand by what I said about it.

[DharmaHelper]

Well a Syn vote is off the table, so.

Did I miss why?

I just don't want to vote for Syn.

[Sorsha]

Well I missed the lunch yesterday because of the thread lock but I was planning on voting synonym. I might still today but I'm hoping to be able to do some re-reads on a few players before I make up my mind.

[Golden]

Thread lock is no reason to miss an important meal. Proper nutrition helps prevent physical and mental health issues.

[Tangrowth]

Thread lock is no reason to miss an important meal. Proper nutrition helps prevent physical and mental health issues.

[DrWilgy]

Thread lock is no reason to miss an important meal. Proper nutrition helps prevent physical and mental health issues.

3 proper meals a day keeps the Wilgys (doctors) away!

[bea]

I'm very sorry I was wrong about you wilgy.
I hope that Celia was right about SVS.

I appologize to everyone for my long absence. I know my participation has dropped significantly and hopefully I can try to make up for that. Please know that my dipping out was all RL and not because I have been recruited. I remain an unrecruited player. I do not hold anyone but myself accountable for my bad vote for wilgy. I jumped right on that train with no thought to anything but "fuck I have to vote right the fuck now!" Timmer is correct, I normally do not care to vote silenced players. I probably would not have voted for bubbles the day I missed that lynch following the same logic and I was wrong about bubbles.

You guys! srrsly! RL has moved from trying to kick my ass to flat out trying to make me suffer a heart attack. In the past week I've had a power outage which involved unpaid time transferring food too and fro to keep it from spoiling, a futile trek through the city of PHX trying to find dry ice, working my normal 50 hours, crazy business because apparently a day and a half without being able to order pizza threw my entire neighborhood into a frenzy plus long weekend, being called in early more than not, 6 call offs bause of illness in half as many days, broken phones, a broken walk in and computer issues because all of my tech at the store has been systematically breaking since we got power back up. Blah. This is the first day in about 3 weeks I've been able to sit down and catch my breath.

I pulled this list from aapje's post about wilgy's voteing patterns. Here's what was down for day 7.

SVS
LR
LA
Tranq
Synonym

I thought that at some point I'd read that he eventually went back to voting SVS at the time, but I guess I'm mistaking that.

Anyway - I am wondering, does anyone think he might have been signaling who he thinks SVS's potential teammates are with that vote? I could see him trying to say something with the way he was moving his vote around, but also he could have just been signaling he was silenced. Anyway, that's something that's been in the back of my mind for a bit during my catch up.

[Draconus]

Uuuhh. voting syn again now before anymore day/night flippity shit happens.

I think I need a wilgy. :cough:

[Marmot]

Thread lock is no reason to miss an important meal. Proper nutrition helps prevent physical and mental health issues.

3 proper meals a day keeps the Wilgys (doctors) away!

I'd not mind if this doctor came back.

[LoRab]

At this point, I doubt Synonym is bad. His posts just don't make sense as a bad player. And I don't like the bandwagon I see going on. He's an easy player to vote for at this point, and I think a lot of his voters are taking the easy vote, knowing he's not on their team.

So once again, I'm not mafia and I have played the best game I can under these circumstances. I do not want to be recruited and am quite happy to keep reading and voting as I have been. If the town agrees that I'm the best lynch choice then it won't hurt their final quota but it won't get them any closer to eradicating any other mafia.

To be fair, while I do not suspect you for this, I will say that the point of the game is to be recruited. Hence the name Recruitment Mafia. And there will be very few, if any, players that are not recruited by the end of the game. Whether by baddies or by civies.

And this is part gut, but I could see Bea being bad. I hadn't thought of it until it was brought up. But reading her posts now, they do resonate with Bea's baddie style. Sort of general, not taking strong stands, putting thoughts out there that add to the discussion enough to not be too blendy, but don't really add a lot (for example, her positing thoughts on the wigly votes as possible folks he suspected). She is not at the top of my suspicious list at this point, but I am definitely starting to eyeball her.

Thoughts on TH and Rico haven't changed.

[bea]

Gee. I thought that was bringing up something new and specific lorab.