Recruitment Mafia IV: Dawn of the Clans (End Game)

#5101

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Ricochet wrote:We can't lynch him today. Well, I did give some "planet-aligning-like" multi-role scenario in which we might have a chance, but it's not muh to hope for. Doesn't mean we couldn't target him (remember the 'outing' angle?). Doesn't mean we can't talk about who he might be (wink wink nudge nudge).
Precisely.
So let's lynch Azura?
Great idea. Do you have any leads on who Azura is?
Negative. It sounds like you don't either?

Correct. But there were a few people I remember thinking could be team Azura members based on finding them suspicious but not being able to connect them to Bubbles.

#5102

Pinning baddies on Uzcamp is easier right now (wink wink nudge nudge), meanwhile we should just focus on any other vibe as well, even if we can't pin on Azucamp so well.

What's the count for teams right now? Aapje, could you perhaps double-check? Notwithstanding Night Kills we have no info on, my figures are Caelia @ 4 (1 leader + 4 recruited - 1 mislynch), Ahriman @ 4 (but really not sure about this one), Uzbekistan @ 3 (1 leader + 3 recruited - 1 lynched), Azura @ 4), unrecruited 8.

#5103

bad vibe*, that is

#5104

Rico, who are you planning on voting for today?

#5105

Since I have a read on Ubziltoid, but it's highly unlikely he can get hurt today, I'm trying to get a second big bad read or vibe from reading overall and vote there. I don't have a final view on Syn today either, his last reply was the only genuine-ish thing I sensed from him, but not the stuff before.

#5106

Ricochet wrote:Since I have a read on Ubziltoid, but it's highly unlikely he can get hurt today, I'm trying to get a second big bad read or vibe from reading overall and vote there. I don't have a final view on Syn today either, his last reply was the only genuine-ish thing I sensed from him, but not the stuff before.

Are you still thinking Ubz is BWT?

Because if so...doesn't that make Syn's vote for him look uber suspicious? I mean, he would know Ubz can't die today.

#5107

Scotty wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Since I have a read on Ubziltoid, but it's highly unlikely he can get hurt today, I'm trying to get a second big bad read or vibe from reading overall and vote there. I don't have a final view on Syn today either, his last reply was the only genuine-ish thing I sensed from him, but not the stuff before.
Are you still thinking Ubz is BWT?

Because if so...doesn't that make Syn's vote for him look uber suspicious? I mean, he would know Ubz can't die today.

I'm waiting for Syn to clarify. You can find earlier my questioning of his explanation for voting BWT.

And yes, so far I haven't found a better profile of Ubzar.

#5108

Is nutella more of a busser or a defender?

#5109

Ricochet wrote:Is nutella more of a busser or a defender?

I don't know Nutella enough to make a qualification.

I am going to work now. Maybe I'll get a minute to check in the bathroom before deadline, maybe not. I don't feel like changing my Syn vote as of now. My only qualm is how fast that Syn train came yesterday. If Syn is lynched today and flips bad, I think it looks good for those people that voted on that train yesterday. I don't know what SVS affiliation is, but it will be telling either way.

Good luck guys.

Oh and Sorsha, i would sleep easier than a freshman in a 14th century naval history lecture if you came back to the thread and responded to me.

Love,

Scotty

#5110

aapje's post here stands out to me:

aapje wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Hmm. I missed sending a PM the Night I was killed. I think the Hosts made confusing posts about N5 missed PMs, though. LC said one, then "not as many as he thought" (??), BR hinted at several.

So if you are telling the truth about not sending in your PM that night that would mean Synonym is lying.

It's also a funny post as on Day 7 he states he suspects Ricochet based on his rezz.
aapje, if both of them claim to tell the truth, which one would you trust?

#5111

Rico: why do you keep saying wink wink nudge nudge?

#5112

Because I've touched down upon Uzbekistan toDay and nobody's really looking over it or simply chiming in. Think only Scotty did, so far.

#5113

Voting Synonym.

#5114

Ricochet wrote:Because I've touched down upon Uzbekistan toDay and nobody's really looking over it or simply chiming in. Think only Scotty did, so far.

I liked your case. I've suspected BWT on and off most of the game. He's gone from chatty-blendy to blendy-blendy, and his reaction to Bubbles felt like TMI to me. He never questioned his stance on her guilt after the lynch switch, he never considered the alternative, so maybe he knew she was bad and was trying to cut ties and make a clean break. He hasn't been around lately, I'd like to see his response to you. I don't really have a problem voting for him toDay, either... if he survives, we'd at least know you were probably right about him.

Then again, we've already tried lynching BWT during Position 1... it didn't take

#5115

Turnip Head wrote:
Then again, we've already tried lynching BWT during Position 1... it didn't take

Yeah, because he's one of the candidates for being immune due to the Position 1.

Do you see any of the D1 candidates as likely or more likely to be the D1 survivor, compared to BWT?

He could have been tied with many other people and then either the tie dice roll or some vote shenanigans made him the lynch target and he was the one who survived. It was all random, in this case (but also karma-levels of misfortune, if he's really our baddie).

Or he finished, through vote manipulation, ahead of all the other players with 1 vote each. Thinking especially of Thunder's potential +3 votes, in tandem with Lightning (Golden) picking the player. Here's the thing, reading back Golden, he sussed BWT a lot on D1. I find it possible he targeted BWT in time (meaning until the Judge put an end to the Day). If Thunder also sent his extra votes in time, then BWT is likely the lynch winner (and survivor) of D1. Hence our 50-50 odds of being Uzboosh.

#5116

I wonder if this will be related to our game.

#5117

I have five more players to look at and it's past midnight.

I need counseling.

#5118

@RIco:

Long Con wrote:
Seed of Paranoia

No one has been lynched. The lynch was ended early, at 5:46pm. If you wish to know exactly who wasn't lynched, then you'll have to do what we just had to do, and go through posts to see who voted when, and for whom, before that time.

Long Con wrote:
Terras' Judgment

DharmaHelper was not lynched. It is now Night 6.

I wonder if it's relevant that, with Day 1 ending early, we weren't told who survived the lynch. With the lynch switch used on DH, we were told specifically who survived.

BWT ended up with the most votes on Day 1, but didn't benefit from the Day ending early if he's Ubby. That's the Supreme Judge's power anyway, and based on other events, I think the Judge is on Caelia's team. There's also the Windscout's Pos. 1 ability to keep in mind, so really anyone at all could have survived that lynch.

I doubt we'll be able to make heads or tails of it to be honest. But I'm suspicious of BWT all the same.

#5119

Aha. I see what you're pointing out, but I don't understand the inconsistency in the Host announcements, in that case. DH wasn't lynched D6 due to likely immunity. Then why wasn't the D1 survivor announced as not being lynched, if it was also likely due to immunity, as well?

There has to be a survivor D1, right?

I doubt Windscout's number of votes randomly nullified can be that high, if D1 ended with 12 people having 1 vote each.

#5120

Ricochet wrote:LoRab, can you give a sample of your Tone Book as to why Syn's posts don't make sense coming from a baddie? Is it just his last reply or everything he said toDay or in general?

That being said, I'm gonna move him to "mull over" after his last response. Not so much his initial D8 one, that was unconvincing and slightly irking too. I'd still like a bit of evidence that, in his culture, mafia sometimes outs mafia, otherwise saying "I'm claiming to out so that mafia will be scared to recruit me" is still a bit of a bluff, if such outing will never likely to happen.

It's less tone and more that his whole threat of outing people doesn't really make logical, strategic sense from a baddie point of view. In light of day, however, I'm now second guessing myself and wondering if his whole defense is an experienced newbie card sort of thing.

Also, this makes my eyebrow raise:

Synonym wrote:
I haven't posted it publicly but I'm happy to explain it.

Did you post it privately in BTSC?

#5121

I don't know if I'll make it in time with the final five reads , so I took a breather to focus a bit on DrWilgy's possible legacy.

I'm looking over Wilgy's Day 5, because he had an alignment check on N4 (position 2), which I find his most important position of all. If there's any legacy to spot, I think it's either SVS or timmer. He made a late case on SVS that Day 5, influenced by some posts of hers that he suddenly found odd, then revisiting a lot of her game. That would be the "out in the open" legacy read. It would also match with Caelia including SVS in her gossip, one Day later. Of course, if SVS is the one, then by now Caelia already took care of it last Night, so the matter is finished.

Yet I must say, the timmer stuff, on the other hand, is totally out of the blue - I literally don't think Wilgy mentioned him before in the entire game. He votes timmer straight up on D5, he later comes with a [url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... dissection[/url] of some of tim's post, that mostly feels obstinate in picking on everything timmer said (calling it "triggers" over and over); yet it's so forced it could be a tactic: not sounding reasonable at all, but still being a legit chance to firmly plant the legacy there. Otherwise, it would mean he just went talking like a mad man about a player he never said a word before. Well, being DrWilgy, who knows...

Of course, this is only D5 stuff. I haven't gone over his possible reactions and hints after tracking on the other positions.

What does everyone think?

Also, omg I completely missed that he used "Uzbeethoven". First prize, end of thread.

#5122

I'm really unsure of who to vote for today. Never got round to doing those reads I wanted to do but I have a bit of time now I suppose. I'm not sure if I think Synonym is bad - leaning towards no. I also think that the case on BWT is decent but it hinges around him being a baddie we can't lynch today anyway, so I'd rather try it tomorrow when he's actually vulnerable. Other than that... Not got much to say!

#5123

I mean I guess Syn is fine.

#5124

Rico - I think Timmer is bad. He gets this tone in his posts when he is bad. When he posts they have a slippery quality to them that I cannot explain. Though he knows exactly what I mean - dontcha Timmer? (obv you have been working on getting the Snidley Whiplash quality out of your baddie game) I have played many, many games with Timmer and I think my record of reading him correctly speaks for itself. It stand at about 98%.

#5125

Rico -didn't mean to not respond to your theory about bwt. I think it's Interesting. I defiantly am curious to see how teefies responds. As we can't vote him today if he is uzbeck, hadn't really thought to comment. I know that's super annoying though when you think you are on to something and nobody comments so I'm sorry.

I have laundry to put away but I'm in and out.

My problem with voting is that I am so on the fence about so many peeps. My strongest civ vibe I feel like I should hold to my chest so as to not target paint and everyone else reads "i have no fracking idea" about. Case in point, lorab, whom I love. I can see where she could be civ, unrecruited or bad. Trying my best to look past my personal meta and my personal bias to see what is objective.

Linki rox - is there something missing from timmers posts that might help you explain it better than tone?

#5126

I also have been suspicious of Teeth since Day 1 but everyone kind of gave up on that bc he posted more Day 2 - now he is back to that early game style and I have never lost that niggling feeling in the back of head.

#5127

No bea - its a feeling I get when I read his posts - the tone the wording idk I cannot explain it. It just *is*.

#5128

Alright, so I'm caught up now. Although I really don't have much to say about other players because I feel I'm a bit lost at this point. I don't have any really strong suspicions I've developed on my own from anyone else.

It seems like I'm gathering some suspicion of possibly being Uzbargainer. From what I've gathered, it comes down to multiple things. I've seen some (can't remember which players specifically now) say it's because of the timing of my vote for Wilgy. The only thing I can think is the thread got locked to try and frame me, or that Uzi wanted to lock the thread when someone who wasn't a teammate wasn't under the threat of being lynched yesterday. I've seen others state (also can't remember who, so sorry) that because of me not getting lynched on Day 1 that could mean I'm possibly Uzi. Although IIRC, we potentially had a 16 or 17 way tie on Day 1 so I'm not really sure how we can draw definitive conclusions about who would have been lynched if no manipulation had occurred. If you really think I am bad though, I'd prefer people go ahead and vote for me. That way once I got lynched, it could help to start narrowing down who Uzi could possibly be.

All that being said, I need to vote at some point. So I need to reflect on that decision. I'll be here if anyone has any questions.

#5129

Voting TH, at least for the moment.

#5130

I understand rox, just thought if I posed the question different I might see it more clearly.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #5131

Still so many votes for Syn... I am really quite wary of this bandwagon and do not think Syn is bad. I think this could end up as another neutral lynch, which is not what we need. But I could be wrong.

Personally I think Lorab, Devin, and Reywas are bad and I will be looking into them more intensively for the next day. Along with BWT -- I liked Rico's case and could definitely see BWT being Ubzimbabwe.

#5132

birdwithteeth11 wrote:If you really think I am bad though, I'd prefer people go ahead and vote for me. That way once I got lynched, it could help to start narrowing down who Uzi could possibly be.

This works for me. *vote registered for BWT*

#5133

nutella wrote:Still so many votes for Syn... I am really quite wary of this bandwagon and do not think Syn is bad. I think this could end up as another neutral lynch, which is not what we need. But I could be wrong. Personally I think Lorab, Devin, and Reywas are bad and I will be looking into them more intensively for the next day. Along with BWT -- I liked Rico's case and could definitely see BWT being Ubzimbabwe.

Eye me all you want. I am not bad. But please, ask me anything. I have nothing to hide.

#5134

On reflection I am going to *vote for BWT today*. If he is Ubz and the lynch fails, at least we'll have more evidence on the case against him. Plus I'd rather see that than lynch someone who is probably still neutral.

#5135

nutella wrote:Yeah fuck it I'm growing increasingly wary of the Syn wagon. Switching my vote to Rey, who continues to refuse to participate and is lurking in the background in a way that is far from typical of him.

Yeah, I got caught up a few days ago and made some posts..felt like I was getting back into it. Then Labor Day I was away all day. I tried to catch up but couldn't. My apologies and I will be back in the game from now on.

#5136

Roxy wrote:Rico - I think Timmer is bad. He gets this tone in his posts when he is bad. When he posts they have a slippery quality to them that I cannot explain. Though he knows exactly what I mean - dontcha Timmer? (obv you have been working on getting the Snidley Whiplash quality out of your baddie game) I have played many, many games with Timmer and I think my record of reading him correctly speaks for itself. It stand at about 98%.

I agree with this. I've had my eye on timmer since just after bubbles lynch. I made a post about him back then so I'm not going to repeat everything. It should be easy enough to find.

After reading today's discussion I'm not feeling a syn vote.

I understand what's going on with bwt as well but I think I'll probably be putting a vote on timmer in hopes that he is on team azura.

Be back later.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #5137

LoRab wrote:
nutella wrote:Still so many votes for Syn... I am really quite wary of this bandwagon and do not think Syn is bad. I think this could end up as another neutral lynch, which is not what we need. But I could be wrong. Personally I think Lorab, Devin, and Reywas are bad and I will be looking into them more intensively for the next day. Along with BWT -- I liked Rico's case and could definitely see BWT being Ubzimbabwe.
Eye me all you want. I am not bad. But please, ask me anything. I have nothing to hide.

Why are there so many songs about Lorab
And what's on the other side?
Lorabs are visions
But only illusions
And Lorabs have nothing to hide

So we've been told
And some choose to believe it
I know they're wrong, wait and see
Some day we'll find it,
The Lorab connection
The baddies, the neutrals, and me

Who said that every post
Would be read and answered
When pinged on the scum radar
Somebody thought of that
And someone believed it
And look what it's done so far

What's so amazing
That keeps us thread-gazing
And what do we think we might see
Someday we'll find it
The Lorab connection
The baddies, the neutrals, and me

All of us under her spell, we know that she's probably mafia

Have you been half asleep?
And have you heard voices?
I've heard them calling my name
Is this the sweet sound
That called the young recruits?
The voice might be one in the same

I've heard it too many times to ignore it
It's something that I'm supposed to be
Someday we'll find it
The Lorab connection
The baddies, the neutrals and me

La da da di da da daaaa....

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #5138

Sorsha wrote: I understand what's going on with bwt as well but I think I'll probably be putting a vote on timmer in hopes that he is on team azura.

Be back later.

Why Azura specifically? Do you know he's not on team Ubz because you are? Also, wasn't your main reason for suspecting him based on his activity in the Bubbles lynch, if you think he's Bubbles' teammate that would be team Ubz.

#5139

I seriously love LA right now. Thanks for that.

#5140

No word yet from the hosts so I think I'll give Synonym a pass for now. I am going to replace my vote to Rico for his mysterious rez.

#5141

#5142

MovingPictures07 wrote:

#5143

Glad to see attention coming back to BWT. He was my original suspicion and I haven't forgotten about him. He fell off the radar after receiving majority vote way too easily for my liking. Sooo... Changing my vote to BWT.

#5144

nutella wrote:
LoRab wrote:
nutella wrote:Still so many votes for Syn... I am really quite wary of this bandwagon and do not think Syn is bad. I think this could end up as another neutral lynch, which is not what we need. But I could be wrong. Personally I think Lorab, Devin, and Reywas are bad and I will be looking into them more intensively for the next day. Along with BWT -- I liked Rico's case and could definitely see BWT being Ubzimbabwe.
Eye me all you want. I am not bad. But please, ask me anything. I have nothing to hide.
Why are there so many songs about Lorab
And what's on the other side?
Lorabs are visions
But only illusions
And Lorabs have nothing to hide

So we've been told
And some choose to believe it
I know they're wrong, wait and see
Some day we'll find it,
The Lorab connection
The baddies, the neutrals, and me

Who said that every post
Would be read and answered
When pinged on the scum radar
Somebody thought of that
And someone believed it
And look what it's done so far

What's so amazing
That keeps us thread-gazing
And what do we think we might see
Someday we'll find it
The Lorab connection
The baddies, the neutrals, and me

All of us under her spell, we know that she's probably mafia

Have you been half asleep?
And have you heard voices?
I've heard them calling my name
Is this the sweet sound
That called the young recruits?
The voice might be one in the same

I've heard it too many times to ignore it
It's something that I'm supposed to be
Someday we'll find it
The Lorab connection
The baddies, the neutrals and me

La da da di da da daaaa....

this wins the thread.

#5145

nutella wrote:
Sorsha wrote: I understand what's going on with bwt as well but I think I'll probably be putting a vote on timmer in hopes that he is on team azura.

Be back later.

Why Azura specifically? Do you know he's not on team Ubz because you are? Also, wasn't your main reason for suspecting him based on his activity in the Bubbles lynch, if you think he's Bubbles' teammate that would be team Ubz.

This is an interesting point.

I'm not really feeling the syn lynch right now either. And if BWT is uzbrothahellonwheels, I'm not quite comfy with the votes going to him as well, since he will live. Is it worth wasting a vote on BWT if he is uzbackstop?

#5146

Sorsha wrote:
Roxy wrote:Rico - I think Timmer is bad. He gets this tone in his posts when he is bad. When he posts they have a slippery quality to them that I cannot explain. Though he knows exactly what I mean - dontcha Timmer? (obv you have been working on getting the Snidley Whiplash quality out of your baddie game) I have played many, many games with Timmer and I think my record of reading him correctly speaks for itself. It stand at about 98%.
I agree with this. I've had my eye on timmer since just after bubbles lynch. I made a post about him back then so I'm not going to repeat everything. It should be easy enough to find.

After reading today's discussion I'm not feeling a syn vote.

I understand what's going on with bwt as well but I think I'll probably be putting a vote on timmer in hopes that he is on team azura.

Be back later.

Might as well put my two cents in. I don't think timmer is bad, having read him/the points on him over.

#5147

aapje wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Ah, so LC's first Host Post was edited after he rain-checked on how many PMs are missing? I'd need a confirmation of that.
Well I doubt he originally wrote one missing pm when he was missing several.

@Hosts:
How many missing PM's on night 5? (and maybe the other nights as well while you are at it :P )

Also Rico you are 100% sure you didn't send in a PM while you had a power that night?

DharmaHelper wrote:This seems like a shit reason to suspect someone.
Eh, I think it looks like it could be a classic slip up. That being said if the hosts don't come back in time I will probably look at someone else for today.

I thought that was listed at the bottom of the night post

#5148

thanks dh for the input. i know I was slacky on svs - but I do appreciate your opinion.

#5149

Public Announcement

Team Caelia and Team Ahriman have recruited.

#5150

still not me.

Game End!