Twin Peaks Mafia BLACK LODGE: {GAME OVER}

#101

thellama73 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
insertnamehere wrote:Waiting for the First Game lynch to be over.
It ended twenty minutes ago, according to the poll.
Yeah but he wants to write it up, make calculations etc..
Ah. Forgive my impatience, host.

Russ will be joining us.

#102

#103

Candy screen wrappers of silkscreen fantastic, requiring memories, both lovely and guiltfree, lurid and lovely with twilight of ages, luscious and lovely and filthy with laghter, laconic giggles, ennui fort the passions, in orderDOPPLEGANGER to justify most spurious desires, rectify moments, most serious and urgent, to hail upon the face of most odious time, requiring replies most facile and vacuous, with words nearly singed, with the heartbeat of passions, spew forth with the grace of a tart going under, subject of great concern, noble origin

Denigrate obtuse and active verbs pronouns, skewer the sieve of optical sewer, release the handle that holds all the gates up, puncture the eyeballls, that seep all the muck up, read all the books and he people worth reading and still see the muck on the sky of the ceiling

Please raise the flag rosy red carpet envy english used here is messenger is nervous it's no fun at all out here in the hall

Mister moonlight succulent smooth and gorgeous. Isn't it nice? We're number One and so forth. Isn't it sweet being unique?

For screeching and yelling and various offenses, lower the queen and bend her over the tub, against the state, the country, the committe, hold her head under the water please for an hour, for groveling and spewing and various offenses, puncture the bloat with the wing of a sparrow, the inverse, the obverse, the converse,the reverse, the sharpening wing of the edge of a sparrow, for suitable reckonings too numerous to mention, as the queen is fat she is devoured by rats there is one way to skin a cat or poison a rat it is hetero four hear to three forthirightly stated.

relent and obverse and inverse and perverse and reverse the inverse of perverse and reverse and reverse an reverse and reverse and reverse and chop it and pluck it and cut it and spit it and sew it to joy on the edge of a cyclop and spinet it to rage on the edge of a cylindrical minute.

Fire on the carpet set the house ablazing seize and bring it flaming gently to the ground ground Dizzy Bell Miss Fortune fat and full of love-juice drip it on the carpet down below the fire hose weep and whisky fortune sail me to the moon, dear drunken dungeon sailors headless Roman horsemen the king and queen are empty their heads are in the outhouse fish upon the water bowl upon the saviour tooothless wigged Laureate plain and full of fancy name upon a letterhead impressing all wheatgerm love you for a nickel ball you for a quarter set the casket flaming do not go gentle blazing

Tickle polyester sick within the parapet screwing for a dollar sucking on a fire-hose chewing on a rubber line tied to chairs and rare bits pay another player oh you're such a good lad here's another dollar tie him to the bedpost sick with witches' covens craving for a raw meat bones upon the metal sick upon the circle down upon the carpet down upon the carpet down below the parapet waiting for your bidding pig upon the carpet tumescent railroad neuro-anaesthesia analog ready for a good look drooling at the birches swinging from the birches succulent Nebraska

Vompatti has been killed by the mafia.

Russtifinko has joined the game.

It is now Day 2, you have 24 hours.

#104

So apparently there's a mafia..

#105

The mafia?

Well. That solves a problem.

Welcome Russ (to your doom)

#106

Nothing lasts forever.

#107

Well that changes the odds on everything I said above, unfortunately.

If there's a mafia, and they get a nightkill, then ending up in an endgame with the three of us (and one of us a mafia) would most likely result in a mafia win. We'll probably need to disband when there's one other person left instead, to keep that from happening.

That said, I think our best chance is still to stick together until we have no more incoming from the other game and one extra left in here.
I doubt mafianess now and mafianess before correlate, so I'm inclined to try to keep Russ around and get rid of BWT instead - we aren't in danger of being outnumbered, and having us three plus an absentee wouldn't be any better than just us three at the end.

#108

insertnamehere wrote:Nothing lasts forever.

Ominous..

#109

Well I am not mafia, and it's safe to assume that Vomp was not and it's safe to assume that BWT is not, so that leaves you two it seems.

Still, I am game for sticking together for now

#110

thellama73 wrote:Well I am not mafia, and it's safe to assume that Vomp was not and it's safe to assume that BWT is not, so that leaves you two it seems.

Still, I am game for sticking together for now

I'm not either, but I'm not sure that we can count BWT out. Declaring as inactive, and then making pms while not allowing others to see you as logged in is a solid approach to this particular type of game.

I also suspect that there's only one mafia member, and that they *are* in the group, so none of us can really say any better than "that leaves You and You"

But I also am game. At least as long as we're still with him, the mafia member probably won't kill *us*..

#111

Nevinera wrote: the mafia member probably won't kill *us*..

Not until the end, anyway. I am okay with a BWT lynch today. Russ is a fun guy to have around.

#112

thellama73 wrote:
Nevinera wrote: the mafia member probably won't kill *us*..
Not until the end, anyway. I am okay with a BWT lynch today. Russ is a fun guy to have around.

No lynch poll up yet. This "mafia" thing bugs me. How can it be so when Bob is in the main game? can he recruit here too?

#113

I think Russ is correct. If one of our trio is the killer then at least we are safe for now. I hope.

#114

EBWOP

I agree with Nev I mean.

#115

And that's assuming there's only one killer...

#116

thellama73 wrote:
Nevinera wrote: the mafia member probably won't kill *us*..
Not until the end, anyway. I am okay with a BWT lynch today. Russ is a fun guy to have around.

Thanks llama

And hi Snowie and Nev! As I mentioned in the other game, I'm on a short trip and will be back in full force tomorrow. So thanks for not lynching me just yet.

I thought I'd bring up one piece of food for thought: we know there's a mafia among the 4 players who were already here, and you don't know if I could even possibly be mafia. I'm not, despite my recruitment last game, but it's ok if you don't believe me. Anyway, I'm just saying that for the non-mafia members of the group, after BWT it makes sense to try to lynch the mafia because if we get them there's a chance the rest of us all win. I expect heated resistance from at least 1 of you on this, and I don't really think you'll go for it, but I wanted to at least say it. I expect I'll be NKed tonight anyway, though, honestly. However, if I survive, you don't go for my plan, and you decide you need a fourth, I'll be willing to join up with you. I think it's a likely mafia win scenario, but it's also my best personal chance at long-term survival

#117

Russtifinko wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Nevinera wrote: the mafia member probably won't kill *us*..
Not until the end, anyway. I am okay with a BWT lynch today. Russ is a fun guy to have around.
Thanks llama And hi Snowie and Nev! As I mentioned in the other game, I'm on a short trip and will be back in full force tomorrow. So thanks for not lynching me just yet.

I thought I'd bring up one piece of food for thought: we know there's a mafia among the 4 players who were already here, and you don't know if I could even possibly be mafia. I'm not, despite my recruitment last game, but it's ok if you don't believe me. Anyway, I'm just saying that for the non-mafia members of the group, after BWT it makes sense to try to lynch the mafia because if we get them there's a chance the rest of us all win. I expect heated resistance from at least 1 of you on this, and I don't really think you'll go for it, but I wanted to at least say it. I expect I'll be NKed tonight anyway, though, honestly. However, if I survive, you don't go for my plan, and you decide you need a fourth, I'll be willing to join up with you. I think it's a likely mafia win scenario, but it's also my best personal chance at long-term survival

Hi Russ and welcome to our little gathering. I have no reason to expect that your new life and character are still posessed by Bob so in that respect I trust you.

#118

It's certainly a valid concern, Russ. The problem is that we don't know which of us is the mafia (although I have a hunch), and as long as we stick together the mafia will be unlikely to kill us out of self preservation. If you have any other insight into this matter, I'd be glad to hear it.

#119

#120

Russtifinko wrote: Thanks llama And hi Snowie and Nev! As I mentioned in the other game, I'm on a short trip and will be back in full force tomorrow. So thanks for not lynching me just yet.

I thought I'd bring up one piece of food for thought: we know there's a mafia among the 4 players who were already here, and you don't know if I could even possibly be mafia. I'm not, despite my recruitment last game, but it's ok if you don't believe me. Anyway, I'm just saying that for the non-mafia members of the group, after BWT it makes sense to try to lynch the mafia because if we get them there's a chance the rest of us all win. I expect heated resistance from at least 1 of you on this, and I don't really think you'll go for it, but I wanted to at least say it. I expect I'll be NKed tonight anyway, though, honestly. However, if I survive, you don't go for my plan, and you decide you need a fourth, I'll be willing to join up with you. I think it's a likely mafia win scenario, but it's also my best personal chance at long-term survival

I definitely don't like that plan, since it discards our existing advantage before it's used up.
I'd rather take my chances at playing the four-player endgame than toss it back into a free-for-all.

I still think the 3-player block has more advantages than disadvantages for us, despite that one of us is most likely mafia.
I strongly doubt you are both mafia (since I picked you both), and the odds are low that there were two mafioso's already in the game when we started.

"you don't know if I could even possibly be mafia."

Don't be silly, of course you *could* be mafia. We know *that*.

linki vomps - sorry sir.

#121

Vompatti wrote:

Unlucky Vompatti. That's a tough break.

#122

Sorry to see you go, Vomps.

Um.. is anyone else nervous about there being no lynch poll yet? If we don't actually get to lynch people, the mafia will kill us all!

#123

thellama73 wrote:Sorry to see you go, Vomps.

Um.. is anyone else nervous about there being no lynch poll yet? If we don't actually get to lynch people, the mafia will kill us all!

I'm hoping it is just an oversight by our genial host.

#124

Snow Dog wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Sorry to see you go, Vomps.

Um.. is anyone else nervous about there being no lynch poll yet? If we don't actually get to lynch people, the mafia will kill us all!
I'm hoping it is just an oversight by our genial host.

Thanks.

#125

Yay!

*Votes BWT*

#126

Voted BWT

#127

Voted BWT

#128

thellama73 wrote:It's certainly a valid concern, Russ. The problem is that we don't know which of us is the mafia (although I have a hunch), and as long as we stick together the mafia will be unlikely to kill us out of self preservation. If you have any other insight into this matter, I'd be glad to hear it.

I have a hunch as to who the mafia is as well. I see no reason not to act on it at some point, honestly. When I said I expected strong resistance to my idea by one of you, I had the mafia member in mind.

Just a bit of math: if you do go to a 3-person endgame, a lone mafia has overwhelming odds of winning. If the endgame starts on a night phase, an NK makes it 1-1, which gives the mafia at least a 50% win chance. If the lynch goes to a tie the mafia also wins with a second NK. If it starts during a day phase you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting them, and if you're wrong they end it with their first NK. And all of this is assuming they don't get a teammate at some point and betray you, which to me seems a likely scenario in a theoretically 12-person game. (The original mafia party game is played with 7 civs and 2 baddies, I think because the odds are about even that way.)

#129

That's right, Russ, which is why we are not going to do a three person endgame. We are going to try to get the mafia member when there ar fou of us left, after clearing out the White Lodge. I see no reason to hurry.

#130

I still don't see how there can be a mafia member here. All the roles are civ roles.

#131

That's fair, llama, but according to my math 4 is even worse odds than 3. If it's a lynch you're at 25% chance of getting the mafia, then they win with an NK, tied lynch, and another NK. If it starts with a night period you're back to 33%. I'd argue for 5 instead of 4, then you're at least guaranteed 2 real chances at a correct lynch.

#132

Russtifinko wrote:That's fair, llama, but according to my math 4 is even worse odds than 3. If it's a lynch you're at 25% chance of getting the mafia, then they win with an NK, tied lynch, and another NK. If it starts with a night period you're back to 33%. I'd argue for 5 instead of 4, then you're at least guaranteed 2 real chances at a correct lynch.

Your math starts with the assumption that we gain no knowledge of or information about the other players, which is startlingly unlikely. It also assumes that there is never going to be a second mafia member, which also seems unreasonable (why call it the 'mafia' if it's only ever one person?).

But the plan was never to get to a lynch period with 4, it was to get to a night with 4 - we'd stop lynching when there were four, the mafia would kill the fourth, and then we'd have to figure out which of us three is the mafia. (The mafia would kill the fourth because otherwise our prior deduction that the mafia was in our group would allow whoever was left lying around to pick someone to die, as the two remaining of us three vote for each other). The logic I'm using to deduce that our group has only one mafia member doesn't work for you Russ - I can't be confident that you aren't a second one, which would basically guarantee our loss if you joined us.

I'm confident that I can gain data over time to skew the endgame odds well away from being random. If neither of you is similarly confident, then it would be in *your* best interest to follow Russ's plan (and I'm willing to follow along if both of you want to).

Whichever of you is mafia would probably prefer my plan, unless russ is also mafia.. to further complicate the intrigue :-)

#133

Snow Dog wrote:I still don't see how there can be a mafia member here. All the roles are civ roles.

I gave up trying to read the rules for answers. This game does not appear to be particularly .. structured. :-\

#134

Nevinera wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:I still don't see how there can be a mafia member here. All the roles are civ roles.
I gave up trying to read the rules for answers. This game does not appear to be particularly .. structured. :-\

What I am uncomfortable with is that we are all civs that know we are lynching a civ. Very unciv behaviour I would guess. A paradox even, as in normal games one tries to find the mafia to lynch.

OK let us presume one of our alliance is mafia as Vomps obviously wasn't and I presume BWT was just too busy and pretty much ruled himself out of playing.

Do we try to ferret him out or do we trust him to stand by the alliance? So far he has by getting rid of vomps and I presume the next target will be Russ. So we are safe for now you think?

#135

Snow Dog wrote: What I am uncomfortable with is that we are all civs that know we are lynching a civ. Very unciv behaviour I would guess. A paradox even, as in normal games one tries to find the mafia to lynch.

Well, I wouldn't say we 'know' that we are lynching a civ. It does seem likely though. But BWT isn't really a helpful civ, since he's not going to be around at all. If we had a strong reason to believe that Russ was a civ, then I'd be right there with you, but I have no reason to believe that as yet. I've also got a few logic traps lying around that I'm hoping will yield some results (those don't normally work well in mafia, but everyone here seems to be pretty analytical).

OK let us presume one of our alliance is mafia as Vomps obviously wasn't and I presume BWT was just too busy and pretty much ruled himself out of playing.
Do we try to ferret him out or do we trust him to stand by the alliance? So far he has by getting rid of vomps and I presume the next target will be Russ. So we are safe for now you think?

I am in favor of quietly figuring out who he is while directing attention and votes outward, heading for a big reveal later. As I've mentioned though, that might not be the best tactic for either of you who has a role that does not gain information over time by some mechanism or another. Or if you're mafia and so is Russ. In that case though, I'm rather anticipating a mafia kill on myself in the near future, so I'm gambling against it :-)

#136

Nevinera wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:I still don't see how there can be a mafia member here. All the roles are civ roles.
I gave up trying to read the rules for answers. This game does not appear to be particularly .. structured. :-\

I prefer intentionally vague.

#137

Snow Dog wrote: What I am uncomfortable with is that we are all civs that know we are lynching a civ. Very unciv behaviour I would guess. A paradox even, as in normal games one tries to find the mafia to lynch.

Just because there is a mafia member, doesn't mean that the rest of us are on the same team. I am still operating under the assumption that the goal is to be last man standing, in which case it makes perfect sense to lynch a civ.

Nevinera wrote: I'm confident that I can gain data over time to skew the endgame odds well away from being random. If neither of you is similarly confident, then it would be in *your* best interest to follow Russ's plan (and I'm willing to follow along if both of you want to).

I am similarly confident.

#138

Welp, I tried. Looks like I'm not long for this world, unless we get fresh meat from the White Lodge and some kind mafia soul sees fit to kill them instead. Fingers crossed

#139

insertnamehere wrote: I prefer intentionally vague.

That is a better way to put it. No insult intended, of course :-)

I find it very frustrating, but I found the show frustrating in a similar way.

#140

The Black Lodge reminds me of this.

#141

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birdwithteeth is dead. He was Ed Hurley.

Matahari has joined the game.

You have 24 hours to PM me your Night Actions.

#142

Yay! Welcome Mata.

I feel bad for Kate that she still thinks Roxy is on her team.

#143

^Is she not?

Welcome to the blacks Matahari.

#144

I am of the opinion that she's not. Of course I could be wrong.

#145

Hi! Nice to be here. I guess I should read up, because I havent been prying in here. Back soon

#146

You may not like what you read.

#147

Or you may really like it.

#148

thellama73 wrote:Yay! Welcome Mata.

I feel bad for Kate that she still thinks Roxy is on her team.

Shouldn't we refrain from commenting on matters related to the White Lodge? I mean, it's sort of the same game but also sort of not.

#149

#150

Why is Russti on night 1, but everyone else on night 2?

Who has been the mafia since the beginning?