[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[Diiny]

Rad for now, big rereading emphasis on choutas rico and straw

But I really don't want to reread rico.

[Diiny]

RAD, rather. My bad.

[Ricochet]

Rico, I see your point here. If you think this is such a big deal, though, why are you bringing it up 8 days later? I agree that not posting a case is a faux pas, but I think the statute of limitations has run out, there.

It may look like I brought it up or insisting on it only now, but I'm actually re-assessing Choutas (and everyone else, hopefully) based on reads that I made in the past. I don't see anything wrong with continuing to find someone suspicious for a reason.

[Ricochet]

Rad for now, big rereading emphasis on choutas rico and straw

But I really don't want to reread rico.

Re-read JJJ, then.

[Russtifinko]

b) Long Con, as others had stated, has an incredibly complex game that he is hosting right now that he needs to look after. Also, his plan on Day 1 appeared to backfire. So going into Day 2, he had plenty of reason to want out of this game, and for other people to want his head. Still, it's a bit hypothetical, and we've already seen that 3 of his 8 voters are not mafia. On the other hand, let's take a look at the numbers. There were 30 players alive at the time of his lynch, and 11 alive now (36.6 %). There were 8 players that voted in the Long Con lynch, and 5 of them are still alive now (62.5 %). I'd argue that offers a decent likelihood that there is at least one mafia on the Long Con lynch with there being such a drastic difference in survival percentages.

c) MacDougall was a very vocal, and also a well-vouched for player in the thread. His lynch was extremely close, and he had several vocal supporters in his defense, and he's a damn good mafia player. If he was bussed, it certainly wasn't planned, and is more likely to have been a late attempt. Let's look at numbers here too. 21 players were alive when MacDougall was lynched, and 11 are alive now (52.4 %). 7 players voted for Mac on his lynch, and 4 are still alive (57.1 %). Those numbers are significantly closer together, and suggest that MacDougall was not bussed.[/list]

Science!

So has anyone done or seen an analysis of survival rates among a player's voters before? This is totally new to me.

The idea appeals, since baddies have an NK. If they bus a teammate, they can't kill themselves, so statistically they're less likely to die than everyone else (although that's somewhat mitigated with an SK in the game). Is there actually an effect we can observe where bussed baddies' voters have a higher survival rate than non-bussed ones'? Or could this also be attributable to early game vs. late game or some other factor?

Oh yeah, and oh yeah Bullzeye was sanmateo.

Bullzeye is sanmateo????

Linki: Yeah,I agree on rereading, I'm doing the same.

I guess I'm just surprised we made it to Day 10 without discussing it. I missed it on D2, (I started real slow this game) but usually people are all over that.

[Choutas]

Choutas, why did you vote LC without a vote post? I think your vote came after the last post you made on D2, so why did you not return till the end of that phase (apologies if I don't remember any specifics about this absence)? Why did you return and took a "oh look I caught a scum" stance, considering you've said nothing about hunt LC - so, de facto, you haven't done any real hunting?

I get your suspicion about that frankly I didn't think much about it at the time. It's my first Syndicate game after all. Living in Europe I voted in case the day ended without my vote(on rym you get modkilled for missing two day votes). Regrettably I didn't post it in the thread and I need to take the blame for that for sure, however in the end it wasn't a damning vote for a townie lynch but rather a pretty deciding vote for a scum lynch. I was lucky, I skimmed through most cases and for some reason I don't even remember tbh LC stood out as the most suss. To answer the last sentence I read other player's reads, I didn't make my own case but the final judgement was mine so you have to take my word for it.

An "I agree with others on LC" or something like that would have sufficed, for the stuff you say in the second half. I can't take your word for something not posted in-thread.

Also, I can relate myself to 3-4-5am deadlines being a total bitch, but really? That's your justification for always voting early? Your D2 departure didn't even happen on the EoD day, but with more than 24 hours before! Judging by the posts, you voted around that time as well.

Nah I've said why I believed Floyd was scum. I made my case on different days also. You compare two completely different things. Just because I voted LC early without my own case doesn't mean I voted the subsequent days without a case. Today haven't I put forth reasons to vote for Bullzeye? The comparison is dangerous and misleading. I vote early to create my own wagons on people I consider scum. I don't like to hop on other player's reads unless I am completely AWOL all day or clueless on reads.

Either we misunderstand each other a bit, or huh? I've asked you questions specifically about LC's lynch Day and you now claim you've given me an answer that related to Floyd and to your game in general?

Yes, I pushed a bit too much the voting mentality you mentioned into questioning if it's your tactic at any time, sorry about that. Nonetheless: How can "Living in Europe I voted in case the day ended without my vote(on rym you get modkilled for missing two day votes)." apply to D2? That's my dillemma. You voted and vanished with more than a day to go. That's hardly danger of missing an EoD.

I don't really have time for Mafia. I was dragged into playing this game because I am permabanned on rym. Some people thought I might never play a RYM game again and it was a really good idea to play Mafia again with some old friends(Joe, Matt, Jay). I don't have time to play mafia. It took me a lot of time to understand how you do things over here and if it wasn't Day 0 I would have done even graver mistakes than not posting a vote. The funny thing is that you are right not posting my vote was a bad and suspicious move but this is my first game here and tbh if I were scum I would have been coached by the other members to not do such shit. As for not contributing more I really have been having trouble contributing the whole game. I'm the kind of guy who would have felt bad getting myself modkilled like RDW. Dunno maybe I should have stopped playing on Day 3 if I couldn't keep up with your pace.
I get what you mean but what do you expect me to say? I'm a busy man.
MM was right I can't ball.

PS: MM I still think you're rogue.

[Diiny]

Rad for now, big rereading emphasis on choutas rico and straw

But I really don't want to reread rico.

Re-read JJJ, then.

don't even joke

[Diiny]

@Choutas, that stuff about playing better if you were scum is both wifommy and not that true when you consider how floyd was doing some pretty nooby stuff despite having the scum team on his side to help him.

[Ricochet]

Rad for now, big rereading emphasis on choutas rico and straw

But I really don't want to reread rico.

Re-read JJJ, then.

don't even joke

What did one omelette say to the other?

Re-read JJJ.

(tfw Eloh's not here anymore to laugh )

[Choutas]

@Choutas, that stuff about playing better if you were scum is both wifommy and not that true when you consider how floyd was doing some pretty nooby stuff despite having the scum team on his side to help him.

You're right it's WIFOM. It doesn't matter much since I've taken responsibility for that action anyway.

[Ricochet]

Ok, Choutas, I understand your answer better now.

Speaking of not having time, gotta go to bed. Duty calls tomorrow morning.

[Diiny]

Order of operations:

Lynch Metalmarsh
Lynch Choutas
Celebrate a town victory

I thought there were three scum unaccounted for and an SK still to find?

Tinfoil hat says one of the SK victims is scum and straw just slipped.

[DrWilgy]

Just a trend I've noticed. Thought I should share.

Choutas, why did you vote LC without a vote post? I think your vote came after the last post you made on D2, so why did you not return till the end of that phase (apologies if I don't remember any specifics about this absence)? Why did you return and took a "oh look I caught a scum" stance, considering you've said nothing about hunt LC - so, de facto, you haven't done any real hunting?

I get your suspicion about that frankly I didn't think much about it at the time. It's my first Syndicate game after all. Living in Europe I voted in case the day ended without my vote(on rym you get modkilled for missing two day votes). Regrettably I didn't post it in the thread and I need to take the blame for that for sure, however in the end it wasn't a damning vote for a townie lynch but rather a pretty deciding vote for a scum lynch. I was lucky, I skimmed through most cases and for some reason I don't even remember tbh LC stood out as the most suss. To answer the last sentence I read other player's reads, I didn't make my own case but the final judgement was mine so you have to take my word for it.

Nah the other post is the same post where you quote yourself. It isn't another person. My response covers both since it's the same post with one additional post. You seriously need to start using logic and not accuse me why I quoted one post and not the other when my response covers both since it's the same quote pyramid with one additional quote with the same goddamn question. You must be horrible playing this game. I can't attribute it to any other reason.
I told you I thought I was targeted. You ask me why. You want proof. Do you want me to give you my role pm? Seriously do you want me to screenshot and post? Do you? I don't use another's material to make that point, I use mine. You have to take my word for it. But you clearly won't. Until apparently I break into MP's mod and uncover all the pms regarding the case and post them online I'll forever be your suspect. Again you're really bad at playing this game. You can't call a bullshit when someone says he knows something that can not be proved by any lawful means.

Seriously if you're scum golden raspberry of the year.

and...

Choutas, you're telling me that we've been reading and going back and rereading and making cases all day today, and 5 minutes before the deadline, you're going to "put your neck out" with an obscure comment that looks borderline OB?

What?

JUST TRUST ME. Seaside is town. This lynch will end up killing a townie.

You either trust me or you don't. Seriously I am fuckin' putting my neck right now.

There may be more, but I lack the energy to go through and find them currently.

[Diiny]

Also, no one has answered me this entire game about why some people are so sure that the SK has only killed townies. Why the [censored]ing [censored] are some people so certain of this? Answer me dammit. What are the odds that...

Also, does straw bring this up because he's realised he's just slipped and wants to make his post less suspicious?

[Diiny]

Are there any players you think should be off the table for this lynch, Straw?

At this point, no. I think y'all are scum. Every last one of you.

Nah, but really, everyone has given me reason to think they're anti-town. Maybe Russti the least so, but that's based on a gut read I had about six, seven years ago.

I've never liked posts that seem to assert that everyone's as bad as everyone else with no particular baddies highlighted. Granted he's got his Metal tunneling thing going but still. I'd like to see something that isn't Metalmarsh>everyone else>russti at this point in the game

[Choutas]

Wilgy don't use yellow when you colour sentences it hurts my eyes. Go for blue or orange.
Also Wilgy would you catch me if I fall?

[Diiny]

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

[Russtifinko]

Also, no one has answered me this entire game about why some people are so sure that the SK has only killed townies. Why the [censored]ing [censored] are some people so certain of this? Answer me dammit. What are the odds that...

I've seen this pretty commonly in games, just reflecting a worst-case scenario mindset. The idea being that it puts the most pressure on us to get baddies immediately, and if the assumption is wrong, so much the better. I didn't read much into it.

Diiny, who do you suspect today? The last thing I saw from you was thinking bcornett was bad. Still looking at Fuzz, or elsewhere?

[Diiny]

Fuzz is only looking worse after the sig result, probably my scummiest read. I'm also looking at rico as hard as I can without ruining my quality of life significantly. Still looking at straw pretty hard, too, my tinfoil companion is enjoying itself there.

Choutas is difficult as fuck for me, becuase I really don't know how to feel about his infodumping thing. But as I was typing this, something occured to me: it would be really, really easy for scum to fake knowing that someone was town because of infodumping because scum know exactly who scum is by default, sans the possibility of sk-ness. I really want to ask more about the infodumping lark but I don't want to get modkilled. How far can I go?

[Diiny]

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

this should read 'suspecting' tbh.

Also marshy and wilgy I want answers

[Diiny]

@Choutas, that stuff about playing better if you were scum is both wifommy and not that true when you consider how floyd was doing some pretty nooby stuff despite having the scum team on his side to help him.

You're right it's WIFOM. It doesn't matter much since I've taken responsibility for that action anyway.

That doesn't make me feel better about it, though.

[Marmot]

Spoiler: show

Also CHOUTAS.

His vote record looks bad. Yes he voted Long Con on Day 1 and Floyd on Day 8, but in both cases, his vote was the first on the wagon. Otherwise, he has shown the tendency to vote early and not alter his vote (except for the case I noted previously).

So I found this post interesting. I think it was JJJ that said yesterday he thinks people who vote early look more civ. You're saying here they look less so, and in another post you cited some of my late votes as a reason your mind has changed somewhat on me.

I'm personally inclined to view a patter of vote times as mainly situation-specific. Choutas lives in Europe; I get off work 2-3 hours before lynches. I do think baddies can occasionally be found voting in the middle of packs, to avoid looking like they have too much influence over a lynch, but generally I only use vote timing as a supplement to more substantial cases. I'm interested in what others think about the vote timing issue.

Linki: So I feel like I get what you're driving at with Strawhenge's role, MM, but if I'm reading this in relation to your other posts, I don't see how he could be convinced you are one of those two (or any two) roles. Is that the point you're trying to make, that he couldn't know? Or is it just that I'm missing something?

--- Russtifinko ---

I don't have anything against voting early. But in Choutas's case, he's placed his vote early consistently, and left it the rest of the day. It looks like he has his mind made up going into the day phase that he wants to vote so-and-so, but never strays. If something else comes up during a day phase, he doesn't act on it, with the one exception I pointed out.

And I understand he lives in Europe. But these are 48 hour day phases, and he consistently votes early in the first 24 hours. The one time he did change his vote recently, he did it within an hour of the deadline.

Spoiler: show

Question to anyone. Why would Strawhenge be so convinced that I am Psycho Killer (and at one point Psycho Killer or Life during Wartime)?

More specifically, what role do you think he would have that could give him this knowledge?

I think whatever he has on you is not stemming for the thread, so I doubt I can say what I think that Straw did outside the thread to get the impression that you are a killer.

Also, this request is by itself fishy. Either you're bad and want assistance in pinning down Straw, or, in case you are not a killer, such discussion could lead to the mafia and the SK paying more attention.

--- Ricochet ---

I've already told you who I think he is, and I've already told you that I have a townread on him.

But my suggestions disagrees with the idea that Strawhenge would have information on me. So I'm asking what everyone else thinks and why he still managed to convince three players to follow his vote on Day 8. I already have an idea in mind, but I'm still going to ask.

Spoiler: show

But hey, I did learn some things from skimming through players' posts looking for all of their votes cast. Here are quick thoughts I have on players.



Bullzeye - There's that MacDougall interaction that Epignosis. But everything else feels less... bad. Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think. After browsing through 6 other players after Bullzeye, my thoughts are all over the place now.

Choutas - I commented on the votes already. He's often voted early without changing his vote beyond that. The only exception was seemingly to try and save a lynched mafia. He has dropped in my rainbow list.

Diiny - His contributions have not been great. Like Bullzeye, I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by the other players I've looked at since, but I do recall him being very go-along in his demeanor.

DrWilgy - His case on Day 2 against Long Con looks really good (barring at strategic bussing attempt). He's still been pretty solid since then. He helped lynch MacDougall on Day 6, and his votes outside of just seemed solid. Also, like Strawhenge, there was a point where he was trying to push an idea that relied on info, before he realized the error in his ways. Like Strawhenge, I think this is a good look for the doctor.

RadicalFuzz - Voting record doesn't look good. His attitude is solid and consistent, but he's done a good job at not committing to any reads on players that happened to flip mafia, specifically MacDougall and Floyd. Each of his votes has not resulted in a lynch with two exceptions. 1) espers on Day 5. Espers did lead the lynch 8-6 over Devin, but Devin was lynched instead due to vote manipulations. 2) Fuzz voted sig on Day 9, but that was a self-preservation vote. Thus, both of these exceptions get stars next to them, and don't make his vote record very solid.

Russtifinko - My mind has been changed on Russti. I think I may have tunneled on him quite a bit this game. Russti has not been afraid of making a decisive vote, whether it be on a baddie or a civilian. This consistent aggressive strategy has more potential to come from a civilian than a mafia member, in my opinion. He's got balls, and his output has been consistent throughout this game. Yes he has said several things that seem waffly/weird, but he's generally been open-minded as well, not afraid to trust another player when he was not certain (which was the case in the Long Con lynch).

Strawhenge - I can't see him being mafia at all. I've got a role pegged for him right now, and I've seen strong flashes of a civilian playstyle that I've noticed in my RYM research of him. I also completely understand the effects of burnout.

So this is mainly a stylistic point, but I love this post (and not primarily because MM's read of me improved in it). I just find this kind of simple statement of opinion with reasoning very easy to follow, as opposed to some of the denser quote- and spoiler-heavy posts that go around. I figure, I can always look up vote records or posts to see if the opinions are based in real observations. I motion for more content like this - I know it helps me avoid burnout. Are others of the same mindset?

Linki: I committed to reread some people today, but I'm catching up on current topics first. I don't want to get locked into a mode of thinking from a prior day, so my vote will come out when I decide I'm confident in it's placement. Can't speak for others, though.

--- Russtifinko ---

Thanks.

Spoiler: show

I don't strongly believe Choutas to be civilian. On the contrary, I've made observations about some of his votes, and why I think they look bad. I even have my vote on him right now.

It is rarely a case in a game where info-dumping is not allowed, that someone can be cleared as civilian. I was emphasizing that despite his claim that he has never bussed a teammate as mafia, that doesn't mean he is not mafia.

I don't care about whether you think Choutas is town, scum, or a manhole cover. I am talking about your use of the word "dismiss." I believe that the word "dismiss" in that context provides insight that you would not be particularly thrilled to have a strong town read. The reasons for that town read are irrelevant to this conversation. I have difficulty seeing a civilian go "Oh, he's probably civilian, cool. I'll just leave him alone over there then," especially at this point in the game.

An unrelated question, MM: Did you change your vote to Choutas because you found suspicious things about him you didn't see yesterday, or because you changed your mind about the suspicions you held against me yesterday?

--- RadicalFuzz ---

If I'm understanding you correctly, your argument is that my verbage is not good? Perhaps this is why I feel like you're trying to undermine me, because I feel like you are addressing my language, rather than the ideas themselves. Let me see if I can illuminate you on my intention.

I acknowledged Choutas' statement. I think it's important to consider. But I will not mark him off as a civilian read and look at everyone else but him. I'll factor that into my read of him. I don't know why you're telling me I said "Oh, he's probably a civilian..." I said I can't just dismiss him as a civilian read. Did you misread my post?

I did not change my mind about you, as evidenced by my most recent rainbow reads. But anyway, the answer to the last question is the former of those two options.

Spoiler: show

b) Long Con, as others had stated, has an incredibly complex game that he is hosting right now that he needs to look after. Also, his plan on Day 1 appeared to backfire. So going into Day 2, he had plenty of reason to want out of this game, and for other people to want his head. Still, it's a bit hypothetical, and we've already seen that 3 of his 8 voters are not mafia. On the other hand, let's take a look at the numbers. There were 30 players alive at the time of his lynch, and 11 alive now (36.6 %). There were 8 players that voted in the Long Con lynch, and 5 of them are still alive now (62.5 %). I'd argue that offers a decent likelihood that there is at least one mafia on the Long Con lynch with there being such a drastic difference in survival percentages.

c) MacDougall was a very vocal, and also a well-vouched for player in the thread. His lynch was extremely close, and he had several vocal supporters in his defense, and he's a damn good mafia player. If he was bussed, it certainly wasn't planned, and is more likely to have been a late attempt. Let's look at numbers here too. 21 players were alive when MacDougall was lynched, and 11 are alive now (52.4 %). 7 players voted for Mac on his lynch, and 4 are still alive (57.1 %). Those numbers are significantly closer together, and suggest that MacDougall was not bussed.[/list]

Science!

So has anyone done or seen an analysis of survival rates among a player's voters before? This is totally new to me.

The idea appeals, since baddies have an NK. If they bus a teammate, they can't kill themselves, so statistically they're less likely to die than everyone else (although that's somewhat mitigated with an SK in the game). Is there actually an effect we can observe where bussed baddies' voters have a higher survival rate than non-bussed ones'? Or could this also be attributable to early game vs. late game or some other factor.

--- Russtifinko ---

I've never seen nor heard of this sort of number-crunching before. It just occured to me that there were a lot of players left that voted Long Con on Day 2, and so I just decided to compare numbers.

Feedback is very welcome to this idea.

Also, Bullzeye is not actually sanmateo. He just replaced him in this game, so Bullzeye from RYM for the sake of this game.

MM was right I can't ball.

No, please tell me I'm wrong.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Finally home. I'm going to jump right back into my project here, but if y'all have pressing concerns for me just stick 'em in my face and I'll try to maintain dialogue as a I go. My focus will be on ISOmania though.

[Diiny]

Straw, why didn't you vote MM on day 7? I thought you had a certainty of him that was so certain it can't be discussed legally?

[Marmot]

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

I've never heard of this before.

I recall the craziness at the end of the Day 8 phase though, in which he pleaded us to switch off of seaside.

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

this should read 'suspecting' tbh.

Also marshy and wilgy I want answers

What's your beef Diiny?

[Diiny]

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

I've never heard of this before.

I recall the craziness at the end of the Day 8 phase though, in which he pleaded us to switch off of seaside.

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

this should read 'suspecting' tbh.

Also marshy and wilgy I want answers

What's your beef Diiny?

He was pleading us to vote seaside, but couldn't say why because it'd be illegal or some shit. Lemme get the quotes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

He was pleading us to NOT vote seaside, but couldn't say why because it'd be illegal or some shit. Lemme get the quotes

Fixed.

[Marmot]

I thought he was pleading us to not vote seaside.

Linki: That's better.

[Diiny]

Fwiw I am not down for a seaside lynch. I am putting this now cause there is a strong wind to that direction.

Neat, why not?

Infodumping.

and you responded to it lol

Linki: what Choutas?

[Diiny]

(twice)

Isn't using 'infodumping' as an answer just infodumping?

Yes, and so is lying about having info, or fake-infodumping.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quick note: had we appealed to Choutas's cries for us to not lynch seaside, we'd have probably lynched TheFloyd73 instead. Let that settle in your little tummies.

[Diiny]

He was pleading us to NOT vote seaside, but couldn't say why because it'd be illegal or some shit. Lemme get the quotes

Fixed.

I'm an idiot.

[Diiny]

As in, that's what I meant to type, not that I misremembered. this website needs editing!!

[Marmot]

I know, that's what I said in my response to you before, Diiny.

But what I did not notice was that it was a recurring pattern.

[Diiny]

Quick note: had we appealed to Choutas's cries for us to not lynch seaside, we'd have probably lynched TheFloyd73 instead. Let that settle in your little tummies.

Too close to call between floyd and yourself that day, but good shout.

Surely this guy looks terribad from your perspective?

[Diiny]

I don't give green skittles (read: defend) to my teammates, if I happen to be mafia with them. This is my 10th mafia game on this site, if you think I'm that much of a dumbass to do that, then you clearly don't know a single thing about me.

Looking through the first set of rico's posts that set me off and realised that this post is even more hilarious now that Mac flipped scum and he was also a green skittle

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quick note: had we appealed to Choutas's cries for us to not lynch seaside, we'd have probably lynched TheFloyd73 instead. Let that settle in your little tummies.

Too close to call between floyd and yourself that day, but good shout.

Surely this guy looks terribad from your perspective?

We wouldn't have been likely to lynch me because my self-preservation vote would have gone to Floyd instead of seaside. I don't have any immediate feelings of terribad. We'll see what my review turns up.

[Russtifinko]

--- Russtifinko ---

I don't have anything against voting early. But in Choutas's case, he's placed his vote early consistently, and left it the rest of the day. It looks like he has his mind made up going into the day phase that he wants to vote so-and-so, but never strays. If something else comes up during a day phase, he doesn't act on it, with the one exception I pointed out.

And I understand he lives in Europe. But these are 48 hour day phases, and he consistently votes early in the first 24 hours. The one time he did change his vote recently, he did it within an hour of the deadline.


But my suggestions disagrees with the idea that Strawhenge would have information on me. So I'm asking what everyone else thinks and why he still managed to convince three players to follow his vote on Day 8. I already have an idea in mind, but I'm still going to ask.

Spoiler: show

b) Long Con, as others had stated, has an incredibly complex game that he is hosting right now that he needs to look after. Also, his plan on Day 1 appeared to backfire. So going into Day 2, he had plenty of reason to want out of this game, and for other people to want his head. Still, it's a bit hypothetical, and we've already seen that 3 of his 8 voters are not mafia. On the other hand, let's take a look at the numbers. There were 30 players alive at the time of his lynch, and 11 alive now (36.6 %). There were 8 players that voted in the Long Con lynch, and 5 of them are still alive now (62.5 %). I'd argue that offers a decent likelihood that there is at least one mafia on the Long Con lynch with there being such a drastic difference in survival percentages.

c) MacDougall was a very vocal, and also a well-vouched for player in the thread. His lynch was extremely close, and he had several vocal supporters in his defense, and he's a damn good mafia player. If he was bussed, it certainly wasn't planned, and is more likely to have been a late attempt. Let's look at numbers here too. 21 players were alive when MacDougall was lynched, and 11 are alive now (52.4 %). 7 players voted for Mac on his lynch, and 4 are still alive (57.1 %). Those numbers are significantly closer together, and suggest that MacDougall was not bussed.[/list]

Science!

So has anyone done or seen an analysis of survival rates among a player's voters before? This is totally new to me.

The idea appeals, since baddies have an NK. If they bus a teammate, they can't kill themselves, so statistically they're less likely to die than everyone else (although that's somewhat mitigated with an SK in the game). Is there actually an effect we can observe where bussed baddies' voters have a higher survival rate than non-bussed ones'? Or could this also be attributable to early game vs. late game or some other factor.

--- Russtifinko ---

I've never seen nor heard of this sort of number-crunching before. It just occured to me that there were a lot of players left that voted Long Con on Day 2, and so I just decided to compare numbers.

Feedback is very welcome to this idea.

Also, Bullzeye is not actually sanmateo. He just replaced him in this game, so Bullzeye from RYM for the sake of this game.

Thanks MM. I understand your point about Choutas a lot better now. I agree with you that refusing to change your mind during the course of days is at best a suboptimal way to play as a civ.

You confirmed that you were thinking what I thought you were on Straw. Without any evidence to the contrary, I'm inclined to agree with you. I don't see how he could know if he's the role I suspect. The Bullzeye thing also makes WAY more sense after your explanation, and after reading Bullz's posts.

As for the LC analysis, it pains me to say it since I voted LC, but I find the point compelling. His voters are probably worth looking harder into.

I'd love to look back at past games to see if this applies generally, but I'm already spending 2-3 hours a day just doing what I'm doing in this game, so it ain't happening.

[Russtifinko]

Fuzz is only looking worse after the sig result, probably my scummiest read. I'm also looking at rico as hard as I can without ruining my quality of life significantly. Still looking at straw pretty hard, too, my tinfoil companion is enjoying itself there.

Choutas is difficult as fuck for me, becuase I really don't know how to feel about his infodumping thing. But as I was typing this, something occured to me: it would be really, really easy for scum to fake knowing that someone was town because of infodumping because scum know exactly who scum is by default, sans the possibility of sk-ness. I really want to ask more about the infodumping lark but I don't want to get modkilled. How far can I go?

I think MP said to PM him if you're ever not sure. I obviously can't speak for him, but the rule of thumb I use is: If it's game related, and it is something I know or was presented to me as fact (like those role checks that can be wrong), then I don't reference it or even reference the fact that I know it in thread. I know others are a little looser about this, but I'm a hardliner against info dumping so I've never pushed it.

[Diiny]

Fuzz is only looking worse after the sig result, probably my scummiest read. I'm also looking at rico as hard as I can without ruining my quality of life significantly. Still looking at straw pretty hard, too, my tinfoil companion is enjoying itself there.

Choutas is difficult as fuck for me, becuase I really don't know how to feel about his infodumping thing. But as I was typing this, something occured to me: it would be really, really easy for scum to fake knowing that someone was town because of infodumping because scum know exactly who scum is by default, sans the possibility of sk-ness. I really want to ask more about the infodumping lark but I don't want to get modkilled. How far can I go?

I think MP said to PM him if you're ever not sure. I obviously can't speak for him, but the rule of thumb I use is: If it's game related, and it is something I know or was presented to me as fact (like those role checks that can be wrong), then I don't reference it or even reference the fact that I know it in thread. I know others are a little looser about this, but I'm a hardliner against info dumping so I've never pushed it.

How do you feel about those shenanigans?

[DrWilgy]

Wilgy don't use yellow when you colour sentences it hurts my eyes. Go for blue or orange.
Also Wilgy would you catch me if I fall?

Sure thing, and you know I would.

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

I don't think that it's genuine, you have to take my word for it though.

[DrWilgy]

Lol, JK.

I have reason, let me find it and write afew proper sentences about it.

[Russtifinko]

Finally home. I'm going to jump right back into my project here, but if y'all have pressing concerns for me just stick 'em in my face and I'll try to maintain dialogue as a I go. My focus will be on ISOmania though.

Wait, JJJ is going to post MORE of those enormous cases?? Lord ha' mercy.

So, my reread of Bullz:

He's a hard guy to get a read on, and that's largely because he's interacted with very few players during the game. He basically votes me as a default option ever since he joined, based on a case FZ. made on Day 2. He hasn't really added anything to his suspicion of me since. He started out thinking Sorsha was bad, but came around to thinking she was good and ended up defending her by voting Devin (though he never expressed an opinion about Devin). He was accused of trying to discredit Golden, but insisted that he was only disagreeing with him. He did talk with Matt F and JJJ some, and in the past 2 days he's been interacting more with people because a number of cases have come out against him.

So not counting responses to recent cases, I count what I'd consider significant interactions with 5 players. (Of course that is subjective.) Reading through his content, it feel like, even more than Choutas, he's content to develop a read and then stick to it, without seeming to really update much. To be fair, he has posted a number of times about being super duper busy, which I sympathize with. To me his behavior looks potentially SK-ish, because he doesn't put a huge amount of effort into developing reads. (Not trying to say this in a mean way at all. I feel a little bad about how I worded my thoughts on his baddie play style yesterday. Again, Bullz, I mean no insult at all, yesterday or today, and I always love playing with you, sincerely. I just perceive you as scum hunting to a lesser degree than most this game, and think it might be indicative of a role that doesn't care who is or isn't scum.)

Linki: Diiny, which shenanigans? Info dumps? I'm always against them, categorically. When info dumps have happened in previous games, I've decided to play as closely as I could to pretending they never happened. (See Mikhail Rasputin in the X-Men game for an example of me doing that and people hating it. Luckily I was immune to lynches!)

Did you see my post asking you for your current suspicions? Any definitive ideas on specific players?

[Russtifinko]

Dear God, I have (again) spent far too much of my evening on this game. I am out for the night, and will be back tomorrow to do more reads, catch up, and vote.

[Russtifinko]

Oh! But before I go, a strangely (I think, anyway) noncommittal thing from Bullz:

Bullz is here! Bullz, look at my case on Rico. A lot different then my "wild theories", am I right?

It certainly isn't wild. Or crazy. Some of it is even reasonable. I dunno how I feel about it personally though, I like and dislike it. I would have to think on it more to reach a satisfactory conclusion.

You're killin' me smalls.

Well, I mean, I know Crazy Matt very well. Sane Matt I'm not as familiar with. The fact I think your case isn't Crazy must mean something right? I expected you'd be happy that I don't think you're insane for a change.

So I think he doesn't want to offer tons of opinions so he can't be held to task for them later. Doesn't speak super well in my book.

[Diiny]

Linki: Diiny, which shenanigans? Info dumps? I'm always against them, categorically. When info dumps have happened in previous games, I've decided to play as closely as I could to pretending they never happened. (See Mikhail Rasputin in the X-Men game for an example of me doing that and people hating it. Luckily I was immune to lynches!)

Did you see my post asking you for your current suspicions? Any definitive ideas on specific players?

I mean, when it happened this game. Do you think choutas's belief of seaside's scumminess, apparently due to infodumpy factors, is legitimate? Or is he scum playing a ruse? Because as far as I'm aware those are the only two possibilities his ph allows

I answered the other thing

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wait, JJJ is going to post MORE of those enormous cases?? Lord ha' mercy.

Everyone is getting one and you're next.

[Marmot]

Everyone voting for choutas, are you assuming his infodumping thing was a gambit/lies? How are you handling that part of his history?

I don't think that it's genuine, you have to take my word for it though.

Lol, I see what you did there.

[Strawhenge]

Black screen.

SOUND CUE: 'Inception' noise.

TITLE: 'Once in a lifetime...'

CHOUTAS (V.O.)
Do you believe in hell, Straw?

SOUND CUE: 'Inception' noise.

TITLE: '...you get something once.'

SHOT: Quick-cut montage of gritty, shaky-cam action that we can't really make out.

CHOUTAS (V.O.)
I do.

SOUND CUE: 'Inception' noise.

TITLE: 'But this time...'

SHOT: More quick-cut stuff. Longer cut of something ALIEN. A kind of ARTIFACT, small enough to be held in a human hand. It's covered in thick, loamy soil and we see a thumb wipe away some grime to reveal a strange INSIGNIA.

CHOUTAS (V.O.)
It's a place of fire.

SOUND CUE: 'Inception' noise. Then all goes silent.

TITLE: '...you get it twice.'

CHOUTAS (V.O.)
Would you like me to show you?

SHOT: Longer quick-cut of more stuff, we start seeing familiar characters: DRWILGY laughs into the darkness; JAY jumps from atop a jet as it takes off into a bitchin' thunderstorm; CHOUTAS picks up a sword; MARSH is behind a mounted machine gun, firing round after round from a helicopter; RICO is surrounded by scantily clad demons.

The theme, like the THX music, rises out of discordance to hit the main four notes of the main theme.

TITLE: 'CHOUTAS

TITLE: 'EPISODE 2'

TITLE: 'Coming this Christmas.'

STRAWHENGE (V.O.)
(through shallow, fearful breaths)
What are you?

SOUND: Creepy sound of a child singing some kind of nursery school chant at 1/4 speed.

[Marmot]

Who are you gonna vote today Strawhenge?