[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

linki: Motel Room is one of strongest town reads all game. As good as JJJ imo.

Why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, Choutas: if you're serious about considering a modkill and are town... PLEASE DON'T DO THAT TO ME.

[Choutas]

I have two more to read, but of the wagons so far, which incidentally include Bullzeye and Choutas, in this very moment, no re-evaluation of a re-evaluation of a re-evaluation, I'd say slight lean on Choutas. Bullzeye's time issues in playing are documented. Meanwhile, not sure what to opinion to formulate on Choutas' burn out; could be just as genuine, for all we know. It's not like I'm feeling fresh as a daisy or anything...I just happen to be mad...and that's a fact.

However, I'd trump so far all these wagons with a motel vote, I feel. So again, what have you all on motel (except Choutas, whom I already asked) or feel on him atm?

Yeah cause playing a game for a month is a normal thing to do.

Hey Rico want us to go play some ball?
Sure, I love playing ball.
Oh and lest I forget it you need to spend 90 minutes every day. And even if you do it people will still bitch for doing it half-assed. And if you complain that it's starting to mess up with your schedule and routine people will automatically call you feigning a burn out. Just play it from morning until sundown and you'll be cool.


linki: I liked his case against me earlier in the game. Despite not contributing as much as other players I like his other cases as well.

linki@JJJ: If it means scarring you for life then it's a real possibility. I've always been a sadist.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

But my question to you is, what is your read on Choutas?

He's been brash, but he has an evidence-based case to back him up. I don't think it's a problem that he has voted early in phases, or early in scum lynches. I can understand a mafia angle being theorized on that front, but not really such a theory being inherently favored. I think his behavior during the seaside lynch is hard to reconcile if he's mafia because if we'd have listened to his cries then Floyd would have probably been lynched instead of seaside. He may have gone over the boundary in terms of breaking the rules, but that's still a relevant component of reading his alignment.

I have seen a number of people suggest he's a quality SK candidate. I don't understand what makes him more likely than the average player on that front, but I also never had a chance to do a thorough review.

[Ricochet]

However, I'd trump so far all these wagons with a motel vote, I feel. So again, what have you all on motel (except Choutas, whom I already asked) or feel on him atm?

Hardest read of the game for me because of The Mac Incident. One of the most important components of evidence against him is the same one that still has people terrified of me (defending Mac vocally and consistently). I grant the objective validity of that suspicion, but I struggle to adopt it because it would be so clearly hypocritical. Indeed to even get a fair gauge on motel room I feel like I have to completely remove the matter of MacDougall from my mindset.

I think his language has been agreeable in terms of meta, but on Day 10 I don't care about meta. His willingness to traverse the bandwagon spectrum with me on Day 6 from Diiny to Black Rock and back to Diiny is disconcerting. His recent content has been lacking. It's a case I think I can support.

Give a tell his vote for LC, then, if you really feel the need to detach from Mac (not that I fully understand: if you're genuine town and was just strong in your belief that Mac is town, why wouldn't you try to detect if others who were also more or less strong in their belief that Mac is town could have just replicated such stances and efforts, to the cause of their teammate). How do his suss material, timing, comeback vote that Day 2 look?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Choutas, when Epi accused you of lying about seaside because you had him yellow in your rainbow list, you insisted that nobody would believe you if you explained yourself.

Please explain yourself now. I am all ears. I want to believe you. Give me the chance.

[Ricochet]

I have two more to read, but of the wagons so far, which incidentally include Bullzeye and Choutas, in this very moment, no re-evaluation of a re-evaluation of a re-evaluation, I'd say slight lean on Choutas. Bullzeye's time issues in playing are documented. Meanwhile, not sure what to opinion to formulate on Choutas' burn out; could be just as genuine, for all we know. It's not like I'm feeling fresh as a daisy or anything...I just happen to be mad...and that's a fact.

However, I'd trump so far all these wagons with a motel vote, I feel. So again, what have you all on motel (except Choutas, whom I already asked) or feel on him atm?

Yeah cause playing a game for a month is a normal thing to do.

Hey Rico want us to go play some ball?
Sure, I love playing ball.
Oh and lest I forget it you need to spend 90 minutes every day. And even if you do it people will still bitch for doing it half-assed. And if you complain that it's starting to mess up with your schedule and routine people will automatically call you feigning a burn out. Just play it from morning until sundown and you'll be cool.

Yo what. Didn't you say you're burned out? I didn't call it feigning anything, if that's what you mean. I just can't include it in any interpretation. People react differently to their stamina or lack thereof.

I didn't call on your time/zone conflicts, either.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(not that I fully understand: if you're genuine town and was just strong in your belief that Mac is town, why wouldn't you try to detect if others who were also more or less strong in their belief that Mac is town could have just replicated such stances and efforts, to the cause of their teammate)

I have tried at various junctures of this game. I did a huge motel room analysis on Day 7 or 8 I think and came to the same "I am struggling with this read, please help me guys" result. I am only acknowledging that I face an inherent bias in this discussion that none of you face.

I'll review what you had to say about his LC vote and report back.

[Marmot]

(not that I fully understand: if you're genuine town and was just strong in your belief that Mac is town, why wouldn't you try to detect if others who were also more or less strong in their belief that Mac is town could have just replicated such stances and efforts, to the cause of their teammate)

I have tried at various junctures of this game. I did a huge motel room analysis on Day 7 or 8 I think and came to the same "I am struggling with this read, please help me guys" result. I am only acknowledging that I face an inherent bias in this discussion that none of you face.

I'll review what you had to say about his LC vote and report back.

Sorry, can't help you there. My response to his votes returned the same reaction.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Notes on motel room - he's only moved his vote around on two occasions, both during lynches of mafia. He voted Long Con originally on Day 2, moved off to Choutas, then back onto Long Con later on. Then on Day 6, he voted Diiny, then moved to Black Rock, then back to Diiny to save MacDougall.

I don't know what to make of this yet tbh.

Actually MM this would seem to be a valid reason to cast suspicion upon motel room. He was quite mobile with his votes during two very close lynches of mafia members and otherwise totally static. Is there a reason you doubt this as a point against him?

[Tangrowth]

Hey, all!

I have much, much more to say regarding this during the postgame discussions, but I wanted to once again thank all of you for playing this game, and playing it to a level that's absolutely unprecedented in mafia history here at The Syndicate. As MM and Rico noted earlier, the record for most posts in the game by one player has been broken, and it seems this game will quite possibly break the record for most posts in any game at The Syndicate. Even right now, it stands well beyond all other games except for Death Note and Recruitment IV in terms of post volume.

Not only that, but the sheer content that has been delivered throughout this game by so many players, dead and alive, has been outstanding. I couldn't have imagined it. You have made both me and Sloonei very proud of both the TS and RYM communities. Give yourselves a round of freaking applause here.

I understand this game has been long, especially for you RYMers who aren't used to this, and I appreciate those of you who have stuck the game out and not fallen to the modkill. Thanks for making this game happen. It will be ending in due time.

I will not be modkilling any players going forward unless they have broken the rules or nonparticipation standards. Please, if you don't feel like playing, do not purposefully break the rules or request to be modkilled. I will not be happy.

[Marmot]

Notes on motel room - he's only moved his vote around on two occasions, both during lynches of mafia. He voted Long Con originally on Day 2, moved off to Choutas, then back onto Long Con later on. Then on Day 6, he voted Diiny, then moved to Black Rock, then back to Diiny to save MacDougall.

I don't know what to make of this yet tbh.

Actually MM this would seem to be a valid reason to cast suspicion upon motel room. He was quite mobile with his votes during two very close lynches of mafia members and otherwise totally static. Is there a reason you doubt this as a point against him?

I can't remember why. And tbh, I'm starting to feel some effects of burnout right now.

I think you are correct about that, I just don't know if I could explain the reason for it.

[Marmot]

MP, I think you mean Dr. Who Mafia, not Recruitment IV.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So here's the deal, I'm currently at 1-1 in my "LC bussers" campaign and whilst catching Mac was sweet, sig hurt like hell and made my confidence in the angle drop a fair bit of amount. If I'm to insist on this path and one or two more candidates (motel, JJJ, Choutas even) would result in mislynch, it would basically mean driving the game into lylo. What if the rest of the teamies are actually more in the neutral camp of interaction; after all Mac, for all the antagonism, didn't vote to send LC to his. Black Rock and Floyd hardly reacted to much of anything about him. Then again, if we are to abandon the LC buss zone completely, what remains of the many LC voters remaining? Are they all civ? Did the rest of the mafia really go on completely different paths that Day?

My first thought is that it really shouldn't matter how any one angle of pursuit has performed in terms of successful lynches versus mislynches. Mafia cannot be solved purely by gauging what seems like the most appropriate percentages in [insert scenario] -- this is impossibly speculative. motel room should be assessed purely by his own content and the way it is reflected upon the confirmed dead mafia. If one performs that analysis and decides he is suspicious, then that should be the most important thing. Doubts cast based upon one failed read don't invalidate an entire concept or approach.

I think motel room's treatment of LC was antagonistic enough that it was a good look early in the game and probably not as good a look now simply by virtue of game progression. It should be noted that LC behaved differently in response to Mac's antagonism (by turning it back on Mac) than he did to motel room's antagonism (almost total ignorance).

While researching this question I again came upon one post of interest:

As for the "2 out of 7 BWT voters are bad" idea... it's arbitrary and unhelpful. Maybe none of them are bad, and the people trying to push this idea as if it's a real, supported theory are hoping to milk it for 1 to 7 Civvie lynches. Maybe 4 out of the 7 are bad, and the baddie team decided to save one of their own who was getting up there in votes.

A more reasonable theory is that (Nothing But) Flowers is an RYM person who wanted to hide their vote in the biggest bandwagon. That, at least, makes some sense. Talking about that makes me think of someone (McDougal? motel room?) who brought up that role. When I read that post, it felt suspicious to me, like the reason for bringing it up was because they were that role, or at least a teammate. I want to go back and read it again.

Linki: RIP you guys.

I fell for the WIFOMburger in this conversation regarding Mac's involvement. It's another level, perhaps another plane, of WIFOM that LC also mentioned motel room in this comment. Do you think he engaged two of his team mates at once here?

[Tangrowth]

MP, I think you mean Dr. Who Mafia, not Recruitment IV.

Recruitment IV is up there as well though. Somehow I forgot about Dr. Who being a postathon as well.

[Marmot]

Actually Jay, wert motel room, I think that I couldn't easily justify baddie behavior for him for those lynches, because in both cases, he voted a mafia member.

Linki: How'd you forget Dr. Who, you had the most posts of any player not currently banned. :P

[Tangrowth]

Actually Jay, wert motel room, I think that I couldn't easily justify baddie behavior for him for those lynches, because in both cases, he voted a mafia member.

Linki: How'd you forget Dr. Who, you had the most posts of any player not currently banned. :P

I don't know. :P

[Marmot]

Speaking of the Long Con lynch (or potential bus), what do you guys think of these numbers? Relevant? Illuminating?

On the other hand, looking at the three mafia we've lynched in this game. If I had to rank them in terms of "most likely to have been a busjob", I would list them as Floyd > Long Con > MacDougall, and with there being a large gap between Long Con and MacDougall. I know I said before we can't assume a bus did happen in any of these cases, but these are how I'd rank them in terms of likelihood. My justification:

• a) Floyd is a new player. He looks like he's having fun in this game, but a lot of the action still probably has gone over his head, and there are potentially multiple scumslips that came from him, chiefly RadicalFuzz and Strawhenge interactions. Being a new player, he was going to get lynched eventually, so why not make a profit out of it?
  
  b) Long Con, as others had stated, has an incredibly complex game that he is hosting right now that he needs to look after. Also, his plan on Day 1 appeared to backfire. So going into Day 2, he had plenty of reason to want out of this game, and for other people to want his head. Still, it's a bit hypothetical, and we've already seen that 3 of his 8 voters are not mafia. On the other hand, let's take a look at the numbers. There were 30 players alive at the time of his lynch, and 11 alive now (36.6 %). There were 8 players that voted in the Long Con lynch, and 5 of them are still alive now (62.5 %). I'd argue that offers a decent likelihood that there is at least one mafia on the Long Con lynch with there being such a drastic difference in survival percentages.
  
  c) MacDougall was a very vocal, and also a well-vouched for player in the thread. His lynch was extremely close, and he had several vocal supporters in his defense, and he's a damn good mafia player. If he was bussed, it certainly wasn't planned, and is more likely to have been a late attempt. Let's look at numbers here too. 21 players were alive when MacDougall was lynched, and 11 are alive now (52.4 %). 7 players voted for Mac on his lynch, and 4 are still alive (57.1 %). Those numbers are significantly closer together, and suggest that MacDougall was not bussed.

[Ricochet]

Russtifinko

Start up position in relation with LC

-	LC with others	others on LC
Russ	Positive	Positive

Wait, positive on LC? Yet voted him? Either I got something wrong here or...

Votes according to Marsh

Spoiler: show

Day 1 - Matt F (2nd of 2) (29th of 31)
Day 2 - Sorsha ---> Long Con (8th of 8) (26th of 29)
Day 3 - Sorsha (4th of 4) (22nd of 26)
Day 4 - Sorsha (10th of 10) (21st of 24)
Day 5 - espers (1st of 8) (9th of 23)
Day 6 - Black Rock ---> MacDougall (7th of 7) (16th of 19)
Day 7 - motel room ---> seaside (6h of 8) (16th of 18)
Day 8 - motel room (1st of 2) (2nd of 17)
Day 9 - motel room (2nd of 2) (11th of 16)

Russ - Black MacCon - Russ

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko

Interactions with LC
-- didn't find JJJ's case on LC compelling, but finds Matt's analysis of Sorsha defending LC meritous (fitting for how he'd imagine a teammate acting)
-- eyeballs LC on waffling to say something about Sorsha
-- feels better about LC given that Syndicateers are vouching for his behaviour
-- (post-lynch) D5 doubtful of LC being bussed (replies to a MacBaddie case on splints...?); retracts after misunderstandinb
-- (post-lynch) doubted Mac was bad based on his interactions with LC
-- (post-lynch) doubts JJJ would have bussed LC

Interactions with MacBaddie (goddammit, one page came with 110 results on "Mac" kill me now)
-- doubts voting Mac on D2 would be a good idea; reads him genuine
-- touches down upon a Mac rebuttal on lynching seaside D2 without saying much
-- suddenly sees Mac as bad for his Sorsha lynch policy
-- inquires JJJ on his D5 stance on Mac
-- dislikes Matt's theory on Matt entirely
-- feels better about him after rebuttals, logic reads him as civ despite his flusterings, gut reads him as bad
-- back to sussing him: for SK centered policy, for being criticised and suspected by him; would be completely down with a Mac lynch
-- questions Choutas on openly calling out Mac and Wilgy as mafia interacting
-- still needs convincing on Mac, upon voting BR
-- still reads Mac as scummy, but doubts himself, due to Choutas and JJJ "believing in him"
-- clarifies his views on Mac
-- feels worse about Mac for pushing contrived Epig SK theory
-- full case on Mac

Interactions with Black Rock
-- questions BR on how would LC play as baddie, in relation with his teammates
-- reads her bad N5
-- intended to vote her, but doesn't (after something posted by fingersplints?)
-- likes Matt's suss on Mac not seeing anything on BR; calls BR and Mac biggest suspects

LC interactions with Russ
-- supports Russ on catching up before deciding
-- replies to him that he has no read on Sorsha
-- tangentially agrees with fellow baddie McBaddie that a lurker lynch could be the way to go (which included Russ at that time)

MacBaddie interactions with Russ
-- D3 considers Russ wagon to be scum driven; critical of Llama, Bullzeye for this, only reasonable vote he sees is Epig's
-- points at Russ casting a deciding vote and soft casing him, rather dismissively
-- reads Russ "gud" N5...?
-- total bark at Russ on D6, plans analysis of him and BR
-- finds Russ making excuses for not lynching a teammate (BR)
-- finds Russ a possible teammate trying to avoid a mislynch, whilst at the same time not seeing anything wrong with BR
-- puts Russ in his final top 6 scumlist
-- dispirited after Russ votes him

Black Rock interactions with Russ
-- suss Russ for never making up his mind about LC
-- suss's Russ for his late D4 Mac suss without changing his vote

Votes
D1 votes Matt for pushing the BWT wagon
D2 votes Sorhsa for pushing LC to people who don't know LC, but it's a misunderstanding
votes LC afterwards, mild suspicion, but not wanting to risk a tie
D3-4 attachment to voting Sorsha; D4 late on starts suspecting Mac, but makes a statement that it's too late to change the vote
D5 votes espers; could be partial OMGUS; considers switching, but never does
D6 placehold vote on BR
D6 finally votes Mac - case, behaviour, everything
D7 motel room for pushing a JJJ lynch despite not reading him bad

Read
Jesus Christ, what chunky posts. Anyway, this has definitely piqued my interest. I think we're talking real extremes with Russ and any call on him being bad basically means he made very well prepared distancing and team-sussing. Seriously, this would be top class work - his suspicions always sound important and have gravity, but could also be only a bunch of reading and big posting done to constantly look like he's pressuring alongside town. The latter is of course the paranoia/tin-foil version of his activity, but you get the point. The LC interaction is barely made up of pokes, to which LC treated him kindly. The Mac and BR exchanges seem far more important, at this stage. He's the player with the most input on BR, so far, and the sussing seems to be mutual. Mac totally went sour on him on his last Day or so in this game. All of this could read as preparations for afterlynch cred. I'm not getting a clear sense if Mac and BR hissed at townRuss hunting them or cooked antagonism with him for posterity, but it's definitely the subject around which one would have to make up his mind.

Normally, Russ's LC and Mac vote would have me in disbelief that he is teamie material, especially given what I long said about Mac wagon not being a done deal, therefore enough so that the teammates would opt to salvage the situation, but it doesn't mean it's not tinfoilable: Russ did after all fix himself in a spot to lynch Mac based on elaborate case making, out of which it would have been rather hard to move away and do something that would look far worse in retrospect. Even in this section, however, the Sorsha two-Day long mislynch (with the old "LC defenders must be scum" that got us nothing during that interval), paired with refusing to switch to Mac at a late point in the D4 game, speak against him.

I'm considering it.

Vote record currently stands at two baddie lynches (crucial vote in both, incidentally) (LC, MacDougall) - curiously his D6 switch is between two baddies (BR, Mac), two mislynches (seaside, Sorsha), two drummings (motel), one vote on ultimately confirmed civilian (espers), one unconfirmed (Matt).

Timings and positions are quite wild: late and decisive on LC and Mac, as said, late and spready on Epig D3; decisive unfortunately on Russ. D5 to D9 is like zig-zag: late - early - late - early - late-ish.

Just like motel, he also shows up in a lot of company still present.

In reading back my reads, it seems my language was mostly the same as with JJJ - what if Russ is a good cooker and did the cook to quite some remarkable lengths (particularly in regards to LC); what if Russ got stuck on Mac, with any backsliding making it worse for his legacy, etc.

But if it comes down to my vibe, it still feels LC vote might have been too punitive for LC, if he's a teamie (even if LC would have half-unveiled him as Flowers, no matter how small the gap, so regardless of Russ' gesture to set the gap at 3) and even for Mac - not hard to imagine any teamie vote on him (early buss attaching attempt) could have been shaken off him, with some effort to make the gesture look genuine, if the hope was just as alive then to save Mac (and I still think it is; I'll probably end the game thinking LC had bussers and Mac had saviours, lol).

I didn't manage to make a Floyd interaction check and probably won't manage. Might re-read instead what others brought up.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The post I just dredged up by LC about motel room has inspired me toward a different analytic approach (not really different, but it wasn't the focus before). Something I learned in the champs tournament, especially as a member of the mafia team in the finale, is that a skilled group of townies is capable of dissecting scum spew very effectively and that can be enough to solve a game entirely. I'm going to focus on the ISOs of the dead confirmed mafia now and less on the content of those people still alive. The scummies may have told us everything we need to know already. :P

When I say "spew", I am referring to the Mafia slang meaning information puked into the thread by mafia members without their intention.

[Ricochet]

Linki: How'd you forget Dr. Who, you had the most posts of any player not currently banned. :P

banned players? on TS? :o

[Marmot]

I also tried looking at Elohcin's post history. I noticed she vouched strongly for a few players, but a couple times she backed off on those reads, so I didn't know what to make of it.

[Tangrowth]

Also, apologies for the multiple questions, but reading Rico's response to the 2 questions I asked earlier made me realize we could shorten Nights if you all are not opposed to that.

Like with Days, we will not be shortening Nights unless all players are in agreement.

Please respond to this post stating whether you would like to shorten Nights from 24 (with PM submission of 23 hours) hours on average and what you would like the shorter period to be (2 hours, 12 hours, whatever).

[Marmot]

Linki: How'd you forget Dr. Who, you had the most posts of any player not currently banned. :P

banned players? on TS? :o

Just the one. :P

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Speaking of the Long Con lynch (or potential bus), what do you guys think of these numbers? Relevant? Illuminating?

I think my interpretation differs from yours on the Mac lynch. I do think there was still potential for Mac to have been bussed, especially considering his wagon was decently large before the Diiny counterwagon developed late to give him a chance at survival. The Black Rock counterwagon sputtered in there as well, but also existed, and at that point mafia members were in a team mate versus team mate position. I think the context of that lynch promotes a busser.

I do agree with your reasoning though that there's good reason to think at least one of LC's living voters was on his team. I'd be pretty surprised if nobody is.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If nights are shortened, I would request that it not be less than 12 hours. That will also have an awkward effect on day phase deadlines. Just something for everyone to consider. My preference is more time on all fronts because anything else favors the bad guys.

[Ricochet]

I also tried looking at Elohcin's post history. I noticed she vouched strongly for a few players, but a couple times she backed off on those reads, so I didn't know what to make of it.

That she was laughing at us and trying to set a bad example?

linki: It would be shortened by more than a few hours. I was only joking about shortening it ourselves to 0, today.

[Ricochet]

It wouldn't*, gah

[Ricochet]

Also, apologies for the multiple questions, but reading Rico's response to the 2 questions I asked earlier made me realize we could shorten Nights if you all are not opposed to that.

Like with Days, we will not be shortening Nights unless all players are in agreement.

Please respond to this post stating whether you would like to shorten Nights from 24 (with PM submission of 23 hours) hours on average and what you would like the shorter period to be (2 hours, 12 hours, whatever).

A significant correction from the current deadline to say, two-three hours earlier, would be just for me personally.

[Tangrowth]

Nights won't be shortened to 0 hours. :P

[Tangrowth]

I'm fine with keeping Night periods 24 hours and pushing the deadline back a bit (though Jay supported leaving as is, so I'd like more input here); I just know this game has been running a while already and am curious what all of your thoughts are regarding these potential changes.

[Ricochet]

Nights won't be shortened to 0 hours. :P

Uhm, if we lynch a baddie...

[Golden]

I read MPs posts, and he just seems dead, that shade of red is different but it ain't a LOT different.

[Marmot]

I also tried looking at Elohcin's post history. I noticed she vouched strongly for a few players, but a couple times she backed off on those reads, so I didn't know what to make of it.

That she was laughing at us and trying to set a bad example?

linki: It would be shortened by more than a few hours. I was only joking about shortening it ourselves to 0, today.

No. With secrets around her role, I was trying to fit her behavior to a possible role-power.

[Tangrowth]

Nights won't be shortened to 0 hours. :P

Uhm, if we lynch a baddie...

Oh! I totally missed that you were joking / referencing Memories Can't Wait. Carry on. :P

[Tangrowth]

I read MPs posts, and he just seems dead, that shade of red is different but it ain't a LOT different.

I'm the color of The Syndicate.

[Tangrowth]

I'll stop posting now so you all can play the game. :P

See you at EoD!

[DrWilgy]

Any thoughts on Chou, asking "who was targeted" ignoring bcornett, then bcornett dying? Anyone?

Any thoughts on "you just have to take my word for it?"

@JJJ regarding Fuzz, It seems pretty Fuzzy to me. I mean, Floyd was barely playing the game, and Fuzz had his eyes set to me. It doesn't surprise me for his focus to not drift unless something within that focus changes. Floyd just may have not been on his mind at the time.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Any thoughts on Chou, asking "who was targeted" ignoring bcornett, then bcornett dying? Anyone?

Any thoughts on "you just have to take my word for it?"

I honestly don't have any thoughts about the bcornett thing. Why is that suspicious? I don't see "take my word for it" as inherently suspicious either. I'm willing to hear your case though.

@JJJ regarding Fuzz, It seems pretty Fuzzy to me. I mean, Floyd was barely playing the game, and Fuzz had his eyes set to me. It doesn't surprise me for his focus to not drift unless something within that focus changes. Floyd just may have not been on his mind at the time.

Fuzz specifically stated though that he did feel it was a slip by Floyd when it happened and consciously chose not to attack him for it as a gesture of niceness to the new guy. So Floyd had to be on his mind. What does this mean to you?

[DrWilgy]

Not on his mind may have been a wrong choice of words.

Better yet, not a priority in his head.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not on his mind may have been a wrong choice of words.

Better yet, not a priority in his head.

Talk to me more about the Choutas/bcornett connection. What about that exchange pings you?

[Marmot]

Speaking of the Long Con lynch (or potential bus), what do you guys think of these numbers? Relevant? Illuminating?

I think my interpretation differs from yours on the Mac lynch. I do think there was still potential for Mac to have been bussed, especially considering his wagon was decently large before the Diiny counterwagon developed late to give him a chance at survival. The Black Rock counterwagon sputtered in there as well, but also existed, and at that point mafia members were in a team mate versus team mate position. I think the context of that lynch promotes a busser.

I do agree with your reasoning though that there's good reason to think at least one of LC's living voters was on his team. I'd be pretty surprised if nobody is.

Jay, here is what the lynch looked like before the Black Rock bandwagon fell apart.

As I stated there, Epignosis and I moved from Black Rock to MacDougall in succession (I'll let you decide how that makes me look). DrWilgy had his vote there before anyone else had voted that day Ricochet followed DrWilgy later on. So after Epignosis and I moved to MacDougall, he led Black Rock 4-1, and Diiny had 0. Then Matt and Elohcin followed later on, somewhere around you moving your vote to Diiny.

So this actually looks worse for motel room now. He moved his vote to Black Rock when MacDougall had 6 votes, so his vote was kinda worthless. I think this makes your vote look bad too. With BR later getting modkilled, there's a very strong chance she didn't care about getting bussed.

Russ came in late with a vote for Mac. I've stated my recent view on Russ already though.


Addendum: I don't think MacDougall was bussed, and would be surprised if somebody on his wagon is mafia.

[DrWilgy]

How much time till EoD?

[Ricochet]

Strawhenge

Start up position in relation to LC

-	LC with others	others on LC
Straw	-	Negative

Votes according to Marsh

Spoiler: show

Day 1 - seaside (1st of 1) (25th of 31)
Day 2 - seaside (2nd of 2) (5th of 29)
Day 3 - Sorsha (2nd of 4) (7th of 26)
Day 4 - Sorsha (4th of 10) (6th of 24)
Day 5 - Metalmarsh89 (1st of 1) (2nd of 23)
Day 6 - Metalmarsh89 (1st of 1) (10th of 19)
Day 7 - TheFloyd73 (2nd of 4) (5th of 18)
Day 8 - Metalmarsh89 (1st of 4) (1st of 17)
Day 9 - Metalmarsh89 (1st of 1) (9th of 16)

Straw - Black MaCon - Straw

Spoiler: show

He still hasn't updated my rating LYNCH HIM LYNCH HIIIIIIM

Ahem...

Interactions with LC
-- Wary of his bea case and reasoning (players having town reads on D1 being pretty normal)
-- (post-lynch) analysis on LC's interactions, with the only result being that we need to figure if bea was a teammate or not
-- (post-lynch) defensive to JJJ about not having had interactions with LC and getting downgraded because of that

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- N1 inquires MacBaddie on thoughts
-- agrees with MacBaddie that Floyd townreads need to explain the townread
-- D5 asks why Mac's suddenly seen as bad; seems content with Mac's own clarification that he's hunted for role theory reasons
-- banter with Mac on Matt being an idiot
-- comes back feeling Matt's theory is only one missing piece away from being on point
-- D6 reads Mac "NOT SCUM; TO WIT, TOWN OR SK"
-- suddenly recalls Mac's plead for D5 to be dedicated to catching SK
-- then again, in reply to Russ, states that he has no reasons to think Mac is scum (alongside JJJ and Choutas); asks again for a case on Mac
-- when faced with voting Mac or Diiny, refuses to, because of not finding either of them scum
-- rates Mac two stars and a half
-- finds the wave of requests to save Mac strange
-- D7 breakdown of why he didn't voted Mac
-- (post-lynch) read on JJJ: finds him untrustworthy, also considers the possibility of him having been wrong about Mac

Interactions with Black Rock
-- reads her town D6; disagrees with JJJ's case
-- explanation on not finding BR case strong
-- questions JJJ on not rallying for BR's lynch on D6
-- reads BR town in GTH; yet gives her two stars and a half later

LC interactions with Strawhenge
Nada. (On D1, tangentially agrees, in conversation with fellow baddie McBaddie, that maybe he should have gone the "lurker lynch" way as well...a list which included Floyd)

MacBaddie interactions with Strawhenge
-- Includes Floyd in his "lynch a lurker" lottery
-- reads him good in D3 GTH
-- banter and facepalms in light of Strawhenge suddenly seeing a bit of sense in Matt's SK theory on him
-- reads him solid town D5
-- calls bullshit when again Strawhenge chimes in on a different theory about Mac being bad
-- engages with Strawhenge about moving his D6 vote where it matters, even saving him

Black Rock interactions with Strawhenge
Nada.

Votes
D1 placeholder vote on seaside
D2 seaside again for his repeated vouch for Floyd...I think?
D3 cases Sorsha on defending LC
D4 sticks with Sorsha
D5 MM for demeanor
D6 sticks with MM
D7 Floyd on several charges

Read
Hmm. Stats come slightly dirtier than I expected in his case, particularly concerning BR and some of the vote choices (like the "Sorsha as LC defender" angle, which can only make me suspicious, considering how much it has proven faulty in this game). Mac interactions are also very soft - and, in reverse, if we know MacBaddie spewed a lot of suss on plenty players before dying, shouldn't his townreads raise an eyebrow a bit? - but thing is, the D6 resistance to voting decisively in the Diiny - Mac wagon is pivotal. First of all, the "Straw, it's better that you vote something rather than nothing" happens to appear in Mac's posts, which doesn't make me feel good about any other players who also used it as persuasion. Hence, I can't be that suspicious of Straw for deciding to do "nothing". Second of all, Straw's explanation of why he didn't made the move sound pretty solid to me. Thirdly, I still believe the mafia team had faith in pulling it off, which makes it incomprehensible why Strawhenge, if teamie, would leave MacBaddie to die, only to preserve his status, because a) if there's scum on the Diiny persuasion, they may have damaged themselves already and b) saving Mac and getting an extra day together, at least, would have still been more beneficial than giving up, with one vote in sight.

If all this is an illusion and everything fits the other way around (MacBaddie townreading him for safe distance; Strawhenge leaving MacBaddie to die to gain possibly the most solid cred position in the team, etc.), I'll basically pluck my eyebrows out, but overall, smudgy reads and votes aside, I think the D6 drama is the best indicator that Strawhenge had simply good instincts and could not have been a teammate derailing a visibly intense counterwagon to save a mafioso.

I do not know, as of yet, how to interpret his non-info-dumping-info-dumping happening. The suss on MM for demeanor is rather old in his history posts, even if I still don't find it a solid angle put forth.

Vote currently stands at one mislynch (Sorsha), several drummings (seaside, MM) and a vote on a confirmed baddie not on his lynch Day (Floyd).

Timing and position wise quite early, never later than midway.

Entourage-wise (unconfirmed players)

-- D2 with MM on seaside
-- D3 with Chou on Sorsha
-- D4 in the Sorsha wagon, still populated
-- D5 solo on MM
-- D6 solo on MM
-- D7 with Choutas and Bullzeye on Floyd
-- D8 with Rico and Wilgy on MM
-- D9 with Choutas, motel, RF, Wilgy on sig

So recurrece is Choutas.

Back on that mafia interaction read, I notice I went quite wild with the speculation and the what-if-titis, but I don't feel as strongly after current events. I feel the same about his D6 stance on Mac-Diiny wagon as I feel about Diiny being involved in it - meaning that currently I don't have any impulse to doubt it for being, in Straw's case, anything but a genuine reluctance to give in to counterwagon pressure and a good call overall.

[Marmot]

How much time till EoD?

About 5 hours doctor.

[DrWilgy]

Ty MM. I'll talk about more stuff l8r if everyone is on. It's dinner time.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew about Bullzeye

Long Con

Long Con never mentioned sanmateo or Bullzeye.

MacDougall

- Day 3, Mac GTH read him bad.

Spoiler: show

Yeah I think FZ has raised a decent point about Russ, and I can't see any other explanations, so I will be *Voting Russti*

Can't see any other explanations for what? His behaviour? I don't like your choice of words here...

Soft prod/shade.

Spoiler: show

There is a lot of effort going into moving the lynch off golden/sorsha and onto someone else. Watch for llama/bullzeye like votes.

Throws shade at llama and Bullzeye for their votes separating from the golden and Sorsha lynches.

Spoiler: show

So can anyone else see the possible save attempt? Thinking we'll find baddies among the Sorsha voters for sure, especially if Devin was their endangered teammate. Probably going to vote Devin tomorrow. Espers and Russti also have my eye.

Yes Devin lynch was gaining speed and sorsha copped a slew of votes at the death. Me among them granted.

on MacDougall

Banter.

- Gives Bullzeye a pass in his quantitative SK hunt

Spoiler: show

Saw Epi pop into the thread then for a second ... Where'd you go mate?

Aww don't be that guy... This is why most people have themselves set to invisible.

Oh, sorry. I thought it was cool. Saw someone else doing it before? Also saw a guy noticing dead players reading the thread and using that as part of his case. Apologies though, won't do it again.

Mac apologized for giving someone crap about being online and not posting after Bullzeye scolded him for being "that guy".

Spoiler: show

Looking at the later votes on Devinwagon, and none came before any of these four so it doesn't look like the scum got desparate and tried to double down to ensure Devin got lynched, but it does make me more weary of sig, Bullzeye and Black Rock.

linki: So coupled with Epi's request, let's take a closer look at Black Rock.

Mac asserts that sig, Black Rock, and Bullzeye are all more suspicious because of their role in Devin's lynch. He then goes to investigate BR and doesn't return to the others.

Spoiler: show

I would like to see a bit more analysis on motel room and Choutas. Those two have been remarkably subdued and also remarkably teflon. Also Roxy, who I recall was getting quite a bit of interest early game has gone dark (understandably) and as a result has had all suspicion taken off her. Bullzeye also seems to have done similar.

This is another example of Mac throwing shade at Bullzeye alongside a townie (Roxy). He did it earlier in the game with llama. It feels like he is forcing this mention of Bullzeye into his post.

Spoiler: show

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

Bullzeye
Motel room
Sig
Metalmarsh
Wilgy
Russ

Arbitrary scumlists including Bullzeye.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

I can't wait for you to start making sense, Golden.

Stop making sense.

Forgot the poll ends earlier now. Will have to vote soon! Probably won't stick with Russ since he's unlikely to be lynched today. I still don't think Sorsha is bad. Will consider a Devin vote more strongly and see if I want to commit to that.

Shall we have a repeat of Recruitment IV old friend?
Only difference is, I'm not bad

No, surely not

Getting accused by Epignosis can certainly be a death knell.
I will most likely be voting for Devin today but I'm starting to think a Choutus lynch might be good. This is mainly based around his comments about the SK. I also would like to hear some more from Diiny he has gone off the radar completely.

Getting accused by anyone can be a death knell. The right accusation, the right time, nobody is ever safe in Mafia.

Agreed.

Four posts in a row? MovingPictures isn't gonna be happy with that

Did I miss something?

You got it, Fuzz.

Yeah, I think you missed MP's message about it.

Please show me, I ain't see nuffin' man.

Ah, sorry. MP sent me a message because I was still unsure about rules and so forth.
Can I call you Triple J now on?

I've called him that before and it didn't make him cry as far as I know, so I assume he'll be okay with it!

That makes me happy

I was agreeing on Bullzeye's statement that no one is safe on Mafia. A quick read through the thread proves that statement.

Floyd elected to banter and agree with Bullzeye more than other players, and that's a rather arbitrary pairing. I find myself wondering if Floyd was inherently more comfortable talking with Bullzeye because of their BTSC interactions.

Black Rock

Spoiler: show

Uh no, the night kills will probably be inherited by the other bad party.

Never heard of the mafia inheriting an SK's kill before.

I have, it's not crazy to believe if there is only one killing entity left that they would get to kill every night.

As a host I would wait until both the SK and civ ninja were dead though.

Only one meaningful mention, in a response during the SK hunt.

~~~~~

Conclusion

Nothing here precludes Bullzeye from being Mafia, and Mac's treatment of him makes him appear team mate compatible. One must decide whether it was Mac's intent to leave a false link or to ensure he was remaining attentive to the matter of distancing from his team mate. I'm still suspicious of Bullzeye.

[Ricochet]

And that's a wrap. Wow.

After all this, I'd say I feel this way

- Diiny
- Strawhenge

- Wilgy
- Fuzz
- Russ

- JJJ
- Bullzeye
- Choutas

- motel

Holding off on handing an official skittle to MM until tomorrow.

voting motel room based on reads and conviction. I'd say "for now", but honestly, I'm feeling a bit at the end of my time and stamina for today, so we'll see how long I can stay anymore. I expect even to crash into sleep at any point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think this makes your vote look bad too. With BR later getting modkilled, there's a very strong chance she didn't care about getting bussed.

I think this is the mindset people are using against me and it's frustrating to be honest. Yes, it's probable that BR did not care about getting lynched and could have even encouraged bussing -- but that doesn't inherently mean my vote for her should be a bad look. It should just detract from the beauty of that look. I don't expect people to town read me for my attempt to lynch BR, but I do think it's unfair to default to a bad read on the strength of this point.

I don't necessarily think you've done that here, I just felt the need to say that.

[Marmot]

I think this makes your vote look bad too. With BR later getting modkilled, there's a very strong chance she didn't care about getting bussed.

I think this is the mindset people are using against me and it's frustrating to be honest. Yes, it's probable that BR did not care about getting lynched and could have even encouraged bussing -- but that doesn't inherently mean my vote for her should be a bad look. It should just detract from the beauty of that look. I don't expect people to town read me for my attempt to lynch BR, but I do think it's unfair to default to a bad read on the strength of this point.

I don't necessarily think you've done that here, I just felt the need to say that.

I have no intention of voting for you today. I've already committed to going through your post history, so I don't think I could vote for you until I'm finished, not unless somebody else brings forward a solid case, and I don't think that's going to happen. And you are right, there are too many facets to your game here to read you based on one vote. I'm not doing that.

That said. I stand by what I said. It's something that just occurred to me, so I am commenting on it, the fact that BR was modkilled the next day. Your voting has consistently been all over the place, so you have that in your favor. Motel room does not, so his vote looks worse. Also, he followed your vote both ways, another part of the story.