[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

'sup. Catching up, seeing what's what. Anything you wanna shove in my face?

A few people are considering you as a possible serial killer. I'm among them. I think you've been just far away enough from the woodchipper discussions that you've never had to do anything dangerous. Your content is also drooping into drooptown lately. You also made no posts on Night 5 when the SK didn't show up in the host posts.

My content's dropped, yes.

But do you really think I'm playing it safe? I ended up voting alone yesterday. And look at the day 1 that nearly got me lynched by these syndicate heathens. I've agreed with cases as they've been presented both because they're good cases that have taken my eye and because I haven't had time to do many proper iso exercises, kinda thanks to the thread size.

Plus I've continued to shit on brian whilst nobody else did. I mean, that doesn't look great for me but I don't see how you can call that playing it safe.

I think you're just used to seeing me more abrasive/active.

Voting alone is the least dangerous thing you can do with a vote. You were more engaged on Day 1 I agree, but that's also when anti-town players are going to tend to push themselves into their metas before allowing their play to develop into whatever as the game progresses. DrWilgy went after Brian for days and days -- it was always a discussion with limited participation because I don't think most people saw the case as compelling. That limitation made it a less volatile discussion, and one that a serial killer can more easily play around with than the MacDougall debate for example.

DIINY

[Diiny]

Wilgy voted to break my tie and save me, so from a purely personal perspective I almost have to believe he's civilian at this point.

If this is referring to wilgy's d9 vote which went onto sig, who flipped civ, does this make any sense?

[Diiny]

My game declining is a product of not having enough time, what makes you think otherwise? Is taking almost 72 off a particularly good strategy to flow into after 'establishing my meta?' I've stuck to the core principles of my game: when I see something odd or that pings me, I quote it and demand explanation. that's how I play, and I've kept playing like that.

I'm not sure what you're saying about wilgy, do you think he's the sk or me?

Are you enjoying your day 1 on day 11?

[Marmot]

This is the post I am referring to.

I did not actually say I'd rather vote you. I thought I did, and I know at one point I considered the idea during the Day 6 phase.

Thanks. I'll think about it -- you've put into unique words the standard Mac/Jay link that I am sure it still a hangup for many people. Do you understand why I felt this was a discussion worth pursuing?

Yes.

What was your purpose for the three questions you asked at the end of the night phase?

[Diiny]

But the thought that came to my mind just now is whether we should consider if any player putting low effort into this debate might in fact be a baddie (mafia or SK) tricking us into turning things on all sides, whilst he just votes alongside us, if it suits him...

I know this is pretty much the opposite of how the Champs final lylo trick was done (by none other than grandmaster JJJ here)...actually, let's do the opposite scenario, as well! What if a big talker is the snakecharmer in this situation?

Anyway, these are just thoughts. I don't have much time and will left to process much tonight.

This is a whole lot of nothing to be posting this late into the game, if at all

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What was your purpose for the three questions you asked at the end of the night phase?

I'd prefer to get more answers to them before I talk about that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My game declining is a product of not having enough time, what makes you think otherwise? Is taking almost 72 off a particularly good strategy to flow into after 'establishing my meta?' I've stuck to the core principles of my game: when I see something odd or that pings me, I quote it and demand explanation. that's how I play, and I've kept playing like that.

Being away from the thread is irrelevant to anyone's meta if it can't be helped. I'm not saying you're off-meta, I'm saying you seemed like you were trying to stay on-meta on Day 1 (perhaps a reason for your hard aggression that got you into trouble), but since that point you've tailed off. When you've been present you've focused on backburner discussion more than I'd like. This is behavior I would associate with a SK who does not want to piss off the wrong people and end up dead.

I'm not sure what you're saying about wilgy, do you think he's the sk or me?

I'm just saying that Wilgy was also going after Brian since you claimed to be alone in that crusade. You were not.

Are you enjoying your day 1 on day 11?

That might be how it looks, but you can be certain that my mindset is much less forgiving than it'd ever be on Day 1. There's no time for bullshit anymore, bad guys need to die immediately and I will keep my vote on you if I think it prudent.

[Diiny]

You're simeltaneously saying I pissed off people on day one to replicate my meta, and that I'm not pissing anyone off so I'm the sk. Pick one. I had no pressure to go so hard but I did it anyway, just like I did in time travel (and that got me mislynched lol).

Even with TWO people on one guy in a massive thread I wouldn't say it's a safe card to play.

If bad guys need to die, I suggest you move your vote to a bad guy.

Also, who is it more prudent to lynch at this point in the game? SK or scum?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You're simeltaneously saying I pissed off people on day one to replicate my meta, and that I'm not pissing anyone off so I'm the sk. Pick one. I had no pressure to go so hard but I did it anyway, just like I did in time travel (and that got me mislynched lol).

I'm noting the stark difference between your Day 1 and every other Day from 2 through 10, and explaining why it can be seen as suspicious on both ends. Do you disagree that this difference exists?

Even with TWO people on one guy in a massive thread I wouldn't say it's a safe card to play.

Why not? How is that less safe than getting involved with a discussion that leads to a pressure lynch? I think that's the definition of safe.

Also, who is it more prudent to lynch at this point in the game? SK or scum?

I'd rather kill a mafia because the serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself. If we can't count on him to try to maintain numbers balance then we have to pursue it ourselves.

Killing either one is a win though if my math is right.

[Diiny]

a) Of course it exists. But it's from lack of time. I had and have much less time for this now that uni's started etc. As a game progresses it's harder to be aggressive; you've gotta have all the info at your disposal if you're gonna do it right or to town's advantage. The starkness works in my favour: I have nothing to hide, so I'm not gonna pretend to still be trying to be as agressive as I was on day 1, get me?

b) Firstly, I was involved in and voted in a bunch of main bandwagon switched. I changed my vote from sig, and I put my vote on seaside. Is that to your taste? I think the brian thing, or rather being vocal about an unfavourable (democratically speaking) lynch candidate means a player's not afraid to put themselves in the spotlight or stand out. There's a difference between defaulting to a random no-vote guy like floyd did and attempting to keep up a dialouge on a player.

c) The thing you said about hating the mafia viscerally. I feel like it's starting to apply to the SK.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew review for Russtifinko:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

Posting because the host tells me I will be a non-participant if I don't.

I will read up throughout today and try to say something intelligent.

Why are you going to put so much thought in what you post? Trying to hide something? Just post your gut reads whether they are intelligent or not.

I support his decision to read up before posting suspicions.

LC backs up Russ when RDW flings some Day 1 poop his way.

Spoiler: show

I wasn't convinced by JJJ's single read on Long Con. The Llama Gambit (saying you're suspicious of someone you're not to see who bandwagons it) is a fairly common Syndicate ploy. But this analysis by Matt F might have some merit. The posts you're highlighting show Sorsha acting how I'd imagine myself acting if I were on a baddie team with LC. Sorsha, you say you and LC have been playing together for years, but what made it obvious to you that LC's suspicion of bea was a ploy if you think she's the last person he'd use to pull a ploy?
LC, what are your thoughts on Sorsha at the moment?

Nothing too pingy at the moment. Sorsha's not always the easiest to read, but I haven't found her particularly suspicious yet.

LC answers to a request by Russ for thoughts on Sorsha with a cinnamon toast Eggo waffle. The question by Russ was a bit of a softball.

MacDougall

Spoiler: show

Posting because the host tells me I will be a non-participant if I don't.

I will read up throughout today and try to say something intelligent.

Well?

Mac made a point out of pushing Russ into action given his slow start. Mac also pushed reyFuzz, but to the tune of a vote. He justifies that vote here while calling Russ his second favorite lynch.

- MM asks Mac if he'll join him in a Russ vote. Mac says "sure, would you join me in a reywaS vote?" -- the latter vote is the one that happens

- LC gave Mac shit for pursuing a lurker lynch (reywaS vote, Russ shade) after the Day 1 flip, suggested Mac "might have known he was right"

- GTH reads Russ good on Day 3

- Matt F said Russ looked very anti-mafia for his LC vote, and Mac refuted this by saying "If Long Con's teammates were resigned to his lynching that would be a decent vote to make.". I believe you, Mac.

- Mac gives llama crap for voting Russ alongside FZ. This can technically be called an indirect defense of Russ, but Mac seems more interested in discrediting confirmed town llama here. That might be a point in Russ's favor, if Mac was trying to blame llama for contributing to a civ wagon. A bit speculative.

- Mac continues to piss in llama's cereal bowl over his Russ vote

Spoiler: show

Oh geez, the lynch time moved up. Thought I had until midnight. I've been on Sorsha since Day 2, seems silly not to vote her when she might actually be lynched.

Voting now so I don't miss, posting after. (It might be mega.) Sorsha.

Linki: espers agrees with me? Of all people?

Can you vote for Devin just so there's some tension?

Asks Russ to vote Devin to create "tension" on Day 4.

Here's Mac responding to an accusation with emoticons again. Part of me thinks Mac's sarcastic treatment of certain accusations (like from Golden) was a matter of ego which might suggest a non-team mate relationship. I'm hesitant to make an important read based on smilies though.

Talks to Russ about his suspicion of llama/fingersplints on Day 5. This is just Mac engaging Russ on a fake suspicion he was pushing without being specifically prompted. This can probably happen regardless of Russ's alignment.

Spoiler: show

I know that. Don't you find it weird that he would just have two browser tabs open on the home page of the site? Like, who does that?

Oh, I didn't see the other arrow until I opened the full image.

That tab also says "View Topic", meaning he is reading one of the many forum topics on this site, possibly even another page in this thread. But also note he has a mysterious second window open.

Fantasy football on Yahoo, if you must know.

Double Linki: hmmm, your llama point is an interesting one. I had been pretty much dismissing the bussing theory of LC, because it seems dumb to sacrifice a player AND give up a NK as a baddie, no matter how much cred you'd get. Your point actually makes me feel LESS sure she's bad, even though for you it apparently makes her look more bad.

No, that's not what I said. Splints and Llama have both pinged me individually. The fact that Llama was on the lynchwagon that day but LC got lynched does still make me feel likely Splints isn't a likely scum, but if Splints is scum, it does mean that LC was probably a bus job. I'm not saying that LC getting lynched makes Splints scummy and I'm not sure where you got that from.

Russ and Mac have a brief spat over interpretation/misinterpretation of Mac's read on llama/splints. I think this one is actually a decent look for Russ because when mafia players are misinterpreted by townies it drives them nuts and that's how I read Mac's language here.

Here's Mac criticizing Russ for his interpretation of a seaside post. This is a little less juicy than the previous one because it isn't about an interpretation of an actual Mac post, but it is still an effort to discredit. Mac is implying that Russ is either not paying attention or is twisting meanings, and either way that is usually more likely to be mafia shitting on a non-mafia than team mate interaction.

- On Night 5 Mac prods Russ to show him which of Mac's Day 4 posts were so suspicious to Russ

Spoiler: show

In fairness Russ's posts of late have been dripping with insincerity. He is as scummy as anyone in the game. I will do a good analysis of he and BR when I awake from my nap. I have a migraine.

Linki: I heart you epi.

Strong words against Russ by Mac. "as scummy as anyone in the game". Pledges to review Russ more closely.

Spoiler: show

Yeah, it looks like my read on BR converges somewhat with JJJ's. Thanks for pointing out her role in Devin's death; I hadn't thought much about it though it's obvious in hindsight.

I do think making reads and then backing off by saying she made them to get people in thread is suspicious at best, utter BS at worst.

I was going to vote BR now that espers is dead, but fingersplints has convinced me not to. I still might, if I find at day's end that my own reasons are good enough to. Until fingers does the 2 things I pointed out above, I will be ignoring anything she says. It seems to bother her, so maybe it'll induce her to play for real.

I agree with Epi. Both these posts read like Russ making excuses for not lynching a teammate.

linki: What does the second last sentence there mean Fuzz? I don't follow?

Mac draws a link between Russ and BR. We know BR was mafia, so we have to decide what Mac was trying to do here: was he drawing the classic false link between mafia and townie, or was he throwing shade at two team mates simultaneously? I don't think it's wise to decide based just on this post. It's worth having in mind, but the overall content in this review should help to decide. It's worth noting that soon after, Mac abandoned that Russ/BR link by claiming he wasn't seeing the case against BR and had her as a town read.

- When Russ half-agrees with Mac's suspicion of Epi as the serial killer on Day 6, he also calls Mac a baddie read. Mac's response is only to tell him it's bullshit despite the agreement on Epi.

- Mac includes Russ on a Day 6 scumlist

Spoiler: show

Wow, votes are moving around. Hmmm.

I'd still slightly prefer a BR vote, but I'm also less convinced than before that JJJ is right about Mac.

I imagine the mafia team views Mac as easily lynchable. Might have even drugged him.

I think some people are suspicious of him because of his [deliberately] volatile behavior, and are morphing the evidence to convince themselves it's more than a gut read.

I think other people are probably capitalizing on his style. Maybe Epi, since he seems to be interested in a contest of testicle mass as much as pursuing an actual case.

JJJ, you're partly correct. I'm suspicious because of his behavior, but not because of what He's been doing the past two D/N cycles. He was playing completely normal (compared to other players - not his meta, which I know nothing about) until the end of D4, at which point he said a number of things (will pull upon request) that read extremely scummy to me. Basically any of his posts at that time seem awful to me, so pick a few to read. I came after him, and he's been chaos posting since. It's not the chaos posting that gets me, it's the D4 posts and then the sudden style change when I brought it up.

You saying he always plays like this has been staying my hand on it, because I don't see any reason whatsoever for you to play how you have as a baddie. I'd really appreciate it if you could reread his stuff specifically at the end of that Day and let me know, isolated from the rest of his content, what you thoughts are on it.

I'm going to need you to show me these supposed posts that read extremely scummy to you. Basically any of my posts seems like a massive cop out and an extremely weak attempt at getting my lynch wagon back on track.

I don't even recall you coming after me. You have been the least of my concerns, so if you are trying to connect that you coming after me lead to me "chaos posting" I'd love to see your rationale there, because I don't even remember the post you came after me in.

My "sudden style change" coincided with me realising that I was going to get night killed if I didn't start acting like a crazy person and drawing attention to myself in the thread.

Russ maintained his beef with Mac's "chaos posting" circa Day 4 and eventually Mac's response is less sarcastic and more resigned.

- Mac clarifies to Russ his proposed theory against Epi as the SK when it went bonkers (suggesting Epi deliberately skipped the kill because he anticipated interference) when Russ called it the "most ridiculous theory of the game"

Spoiler: show

I think with the Russ vote there's not much point trying to save me motel room, though I appreciate the effort.

Mac literally credits Russ for preventing him from being saved while leaving his WIFOM crumbs about motel room. He might as well be shouting "everyone, give Russ townie points after I flip!!!" which is itself another pile of WIFOM.

Mac you drive me nuts.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

Floyd, I see you're in thread. Any thoughts on the events of recent days? You nearly got lynched but didn't; what do you think of your voters? JJJ? The last-minute seaside lynch?

Epi and Marsh's conversations with each other are fascinating to observe.
Who ever Life During Wartime and SK tried to kill, they most likely tried to attack Blind.
I originally thought that Triple J was the SK, but after reading this thread, I think he's probably Mafia scum.
I was shocked by seaside's last minute lynch, I'm still confused why he was voted for. We will probably need to investigate the people who voted for him.

I dressed up as Liam Gallagher for school. That was fun.

Linki: MattF, in what way?

Floyd produced one of his few decently thick posts in response to a prod by Russ for thoughts after he was almost lynched on Day 7. I do think Floyd spewed something here: that the mafia team thinks they targeted Blind on Night 7 along with the SK. I think so too.

Black Rock

Black Rock throws some vague shade at Russ for "not making up his mind" and then proceeds to fail to make up her mind about him.

Spoiler: show

I feel pretty darn bad about Mac now. Probably too late for today, but very worth a look tomorrow.

Black Rock gives Russ the stink eye for turning against Mac on Day 4.

~~~

Conclusion:



I think I had more good to say here about Russ than I expected. This is why I do this exercise, to be surprised. I'm a little troubled that the same thing happened when I spew-reviewed for motel room though -- I hope I'm not being too gullible. I would really appreciate it if folks could review this and tell me what they think of it. I need your feedback. I know my interpretations are not going to be flawless.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

a) Of course it exists. But it's from lack of time. I had and have much less time for this now that uni's started etc. As a game progresses it's harder to be aggressive; you've gotta have all the info at your disposal if you're gonna do it right or to town's advantage. The starkness works in my favour: I have nothing to hide, so I'm not gonna pretend to still be trying to be as agressive as I was on day 1, get me?

b) Firstly, I was involved in and voted in a bunch of main bandwagon switched. I changed my vote from sig, and I put my vote on seaside. Is that to your taste? I think the brian thing, or rather being vocal about an unfavourable (democratically speaking) lynch candidate means a player's not afraid to put themselves in the spotlight or stand out. There's a difference between defaulting to a random no-vote guy like floyd did and attempting to keep up a dialouge on a player.

c) The thing you said about hating the mafia viscerally. I feel like it's starting to apply to the SK.

Your responses are being processed.

Meanwhile, could you answer these three questions? I'll reveal your fortune.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

DRWILGY

I know why nobody has killed my ever-under-fire ass, but what about you my fellow assistant to the CEO? You've been a producer of quantitative data and your contributions have held sway in this thread too (from your charts earlier in the game all the way to your case against Choutas on Day 10).

Why do you think you're still here despite being given some sort of special, ominous authority from the word GO?

[Diiny]

Everybody: can you share your tinfoil reads?

If you're not sure what I mean by that, I mean pick the player who you're most concerned is mafia because he will be a very difficult lynch and/or is a consensus town read?

For me: Ricochet.

I've had a bad feel for rico since my gut frowned on his wifomburgers. Recent analysis is showing a pretty soft playstyle, and that non-post set me off a bit. I need to iso this guy, but 17 pages. Maybe in this 72 hour day I'll do what, deep down, I know I must.

Another general question to everyone: who do you think is the low-hanging fruit?

By that I mean: who is the player who seems the most damned in terms of evidence and/or play style but will end up flipping town?

For me: motel room.

I wish you didn't give answers because I'm annoyed that my answers are looking the same as yours. Keej.

Yet another general question:

What do you all personally feel is the thing that should best evidence that you are town? What can you boast about your post history that might be inspired?

I think I talked about these with you just now, but to rephrase I've listened to and taken part in the discussion that happened pre sig lynch and swapped to fuzz with a good amount of time to see a swap happen. Kept the pressure up outside of the predesignated bandwagons. I also take credit for latching onto the fact that floyd was using a case on seaside as his reasonings for not liking you, and coaxing it out of him. It took me like two days, I'm assuming because of timezones, but I did it.

[Diiny]

I'd like to lodge a complain with the question processing bureau, though. Last time you said you were processing my answers the JaggedJimmyJAI failed to give me a response. :'(

[Diiny]

That's enough defending myself, gonna hunt some scum over the weekend. For now, it's 3 am and I'm tired.

Also, we got a 72 hour day because I asked the Mafia Genie for it. You're welcome.

[RadicalFuzz]

You don't think there's anything inspiring in your own posts?

To be honest, not really. It sounds strange but other players have made better defenses for me than I have made for myself, in my opinion.

Diiny I hadn't considered that, actually. My brain is smart but my head is dumb. Knowing my allegiance is civilian, I think it makes him look a bit good regardless, since going out on a limb and taking a defensive stance on my behalf garners unnecessary attention for a scum at this point in the game. Not knowing my allegiance, it makes it likely that if one of us is scum both of us are, forms a distinct link.

J3 my impression of Mac is that he would sooner use the "Am I crediting my teammate or a civvie?" WIFOM with a scum teammate. I don't know him but I get that gut feeling from him for some reason.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Fuzz, who are your top three suspects as of right now and why? You've been in defense mode in recent memory and haven't seemed to have the chance to produce content of your own.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew review for RadicalFuzz

Long Con

- voted for reyFuzz on Dusk 0

Spoiler: show

Voting reywaS because their 1 post had less content than Russtifinko's did.

I guess you were right, we should have lynched someone who was not one of the top vote-getters. Should have gone for a lurker instead. Kind of makes me itch, though - maybe you knew you'd be right.

LC poked his team mate Mac for "maybe knowing he was right" when he pushed for a lurker lynch on Day 1 and voted for reyFuzz

MacDougall

Spoiler: show

hello

Sweet contribution to the thread so far reywaS.

Mac was inordinately harsh on the Day 1 lurkers, reyFuzz most of all. Russ was the other one treated this way.

- Voted for reyFuzz on Day 1 over Russ

- Marsh invited Mac to pursue a Russ lynch. Mac "agreed" sorta but called for MM to join a reyFuzz lynch instead

Spoiler: show

Did I not actually try to get people to vote for reywaS instead? Did I not also actually attract votes onto reywaS? Did I say, "guys we should lynch a lurker, but please don't cast your vote onto the same player as me?" So how does your argument stack up. What if I was able to get the town to lynch, or come within 3 votes of lynching reywaS if I was this scum player? I'm out on day 1 and I'm the worst scum player ever evidently.

Part of a larger response to LC in which the two mafia mates gave each other shit. This is a little awkward because Mac seems to be demanding credit for what he did to reyFuzz, which was essentially nothing beyond call him a lurker, and act like getting him "within 3 votes of a lynch" is actually even close to a lynch.

- GTH reads him good on Day 3

Spoiler: show

Where exactly did bcornett go?

Also Mac, if you're offering to step up your game if I state lynching intent then by all means you're my top suspect.

Haha I like you too

Playful response to Fuzz suspecting him.

Spoiler: show

If Mac was involved in the challenge, then he's definitely the SK, because Mac's (or whoever the SK is) challenger definitely DID NOT win the Day 4 challenge.

Ya all can do what you wish, but I'm tellin' ya, he's the SK and I think we should lynch him.

So you're saying that Sorsha, Found a Job, targeted Mac and someone else last night. The challenge was something related to "posters" or "memes." So the SK must've been targeted by Sorsha and won the challenge. The poster Mac made stood out to you as a likely challenge. That sounds pretty logical, actually.

It's all a little bit too likely isn't it. Almost like it was a plan all along by the actual serial killer.

Okay, back to lurking. I trust you idiots will make the right decision.

Sarcastic response to Fuzz semi-supporting Matt's SK theory for Mac. The sarcasm is a little less insulting than it was for motel room and Russ even though he did employ the word "idiots" -- not directly at Fuzz.

Spoiler: show

That's a good point MM. There's also something to keep in mind about several roles, there are secret clauses. We don't know every detail of the Psycho Killer's role, and while improbable, I don't think it impossible that there exists some way of "double killing" on a given night.

Mac, the phrase "I trust you idiots will make the right decision" would imply that you think we're right, but unintelligent. If you're going to take this in a joking manner the least you could do is not contradict yourself.

No, I wasn't contradicting myself. I was just calling you all idiots for amusement reasons.

I might make a big post before the end of the day giving a reason why each player in this game is an idiot. Would that be fun?

Mac makes a rather timid response to an accusation by Fuzz and then returns to playful mode.

Spoiler: show

If you're going to be an ass then I'll let you deal with your situation. You've convinced me, so you're doing swimmingly so far. Best of luck.

Convinced you of what?

Okay fine I will stop being hostile. I'm sorry.

Mac apologizes to Fuzz for "being hostile".

Spoiler: show

I don't see anything wrong with Black Rock actually. It would be easy for me to just agree here but nothing she is saying is pinging me at all.

I actually think Russ's posts are more likely to be a scum trying to avoid a town lynch.

Am I missing something about Black Rock?

linki: RadicalFuzz, asking weird questions is a really nice way for someone to design scum reads on townies and is a poor substitute for post analysis in my opinion.

RadicalFuzz answer me this. If you had a carton of beer and you could only share it with three players in the game, but one of the beers had my piss in it, who would you share it with?

Keep in mind that no matter what you say I will find a reason for your answer to make you scummy, and if you refuse to answer or fail to answer that makes you scummy too.

RadicalFuzz if you don't start doing actual post analysis I'm going to have no choice but to call you names. You have so few quotes, you have stuck your nose in so few scraps. You are just sitting around asking questions and playing a game totally your own. Get involved.

Mac gives Fuzz crap for asking his strange questions and suggests he isn't truly getting involved.

Spoiler: show

With the information that I believe you're trying to tell me with that, Wilgy, I don't see how that changes my conclusion. I don't have anything to work off of here, so rather than assume some hidden shenanigans I have to base my conclusions off of what I can see. You're not making me feel better by continually making vague statements that you can't or won't back up when that's a part of my suspicion against you. Until you can convince me otherwise, and I sincerely hope you do, my conclusion is that you're scum and my vote will stay on you.

Metalmarsh, I don't feel inclined to make a case that you're scum at this moment.

See, this guy gets it.

RadicalFuzz tell em all how town I am.

Mac supports Fuzz's criticism of DrWilgy and goes playful again.

Spoiler: show

MM, my logic is as follows. If Wilgy was town and I was wrongly pushing him, Mafia would want to help me push his mislynch, and there would be at least some mention of him. However, the opposite applies, it's very hard to get the ball rolling to lynch Mafia because a portion of the game is actively working to prevent that. It's a small thing, but enough to irk me. I'm not asking players to talk about Wilgy, everyone will naturally talk about their preferred topic, but I'm observing a disconcerting silence. Were you buddying with me on this topic because you wanted to push Wilgy or wanted to get me to look at you favorably?

Wilgy I'm asking J3 many questions because he's both around to answer them and I want him to answer them incorrectly. To my dismay he hasn't yet responded illogically. And if that's your roundabout way of asking me whether I think J3 is town or not, the answer is complicated. I would vote for him in lieu of concrete evidence for anybody else, but my suspicion of him is still extremely circumstantial.

So the inverse of this is that I am town right?

Mac asks this odd question which doesn't seem relevant to what Fuzz is saying as far as I can tell. I don't know why he even engaged this post.

Spoiler: show

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

Day 6 scumlist includes Fuzz, and then he makes another one in the very next post that does not include Fuzz.

Spoiler: show

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

You got me excited that you actually thought I was scum, but then you don't list me in your next post. I feel neglected. I also feel annoyed that you asked me to put in work on post analysis and then call the result of that post analysis a throwaway vote. Would you rather me ignore the conclusions I've come to?

You are correct, however, that the inverse is true for you. With so many players pushing your lynch that's a slight indication that you're not scum.

Well it is a throwaway vote in the sense that it was alone. I agree with your analysis of Wilgy though. I was just starting to just name people with few votes on them and then decided to look a bit closer. You town. He scum.

If there's anything that gives me pause it's this. Fuzz asked him what was up with the prior stated inconsistency in scumlists and Mac just said he changed his mind about Fuzz because of his analysis of Wilgy. If the last two items on this review are indicative of team mates, then this is very sloppy on Mac's part.

Black Rock

Spoiler: show

This is an extremely entertaining way of dealing with low participation.

TheFloyd73

- commits the "thread text" slip on Day 4 in a conversation with Fuzz

Spoiler: show

Ugh, today's too crap of a day to indulge my self upon wave upon of text.

Cheers, Fuzz, thanks.

BTW, what's with all the sudden load of votes for Mac?

Arbitrary gratitude at Fuzz, there are no Fuzz posts near enough to this to make the context easily discernible

~~~

Conclusion:

I think the Long Con and Black Rock spew are team mate compatible for Fuzz, but mostly because there's nearly nothing there. I think the Floyd spew is quite ugly for Fuzz as I've already stated in prior analyses. As with most of these spew reviews, the toughest read comes from the MacDougall spew. I think most of it is still quite compatible with a mafia-aligned Fuzz. There was one point though that made me halt in my thought process and reconsider -- I've highlighted it in pink. Overall I still think this looks bad for Fuzz but I would like to hear people's thoughts on the highlighted point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew review for Diiny:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

Bea has opinions about who is Civvie, but none about who is bad. A Mafia member knows every Civvie out there, so can proclaim their trust with confidence. I think bea is Mafia, and I'm going to put my vote on her for now.

*votes bea*

Hi,

what are your thoughts on the game so far outside of bea

Hmmm... well, there's been lots of activity since I went to bed last night. I just read through it all, what sticks out in my mind? The Roxy thing is funny to me (though I don't like her use of someone else's avatar because it confuses me). I feel a bit of a dissonance, Roxy is getting harassed for saying she was going to randomize, and at the same time people are saying that Random Voting on Day 1 is a sound strategy. So which is it? I'm not a big fan of random voting myself, I'd rather read through and see what my gut says on Day 1 than throw a dart. Which is why I have a vote on bea.

I don't think it's that likely that JJJ, Epig and the other person all voted as baddies together. Too risky. The votes for JJJ and Wilgy seemed pretty natural to me, as I recall.

More opinions about Day 1 so far will have to wait until I look back over things again. I read through it once, but it hasn't all sunk in yet - it's a little harder for me to get a handle on things with all the players that are new to me, the new people kind of blend together.

Diiny responded to LC's initial attack on bea with a prod to give thoughts on other matters. LC gives him mostly fluff stuff about Roxy's randomizing and the Dusk 0 voting. This is a bit of a softball from Diiny.

Spoiler: show

Here she defends Sorsha against Diiny's suspicion. Also defends Roxy. Continues that in her next post too... how "Rox and I" have "Civ reasons" for acting this way. How does bea know Rox has Civ reasons at all?

This was part of a larger post in which LC answered to my demand for examples of bea doing what he accused her of doing -- I think Diiny's name being here is circumstantial.

Spoiler: show

That actually makes me a little wary of Diiny, who pointed out that they are just voting for BWT to save himself. But I do doubt that he'd be so blatant if he was that scum role now that I think about it.

Ok... so why did you write these two sentences at all?

I love it when the LC/Mac interaction comes into the reviews, I feel like this is the juiciest stuff. Mac waffled hard in a soft accusation of Diiny and LC gave him shit for that. I'll return to this in the Mac section. LC's part in this doesn't really make me feel anything about Diiny -- I think he could criticize Mac for waffling on anyone.

MacDougall

Spoiler: show

I just finished reading the thread as you can probably tell by my scattered quotes.

It's hard not to focus on the RYM players since I know most of them better. Particularly the ones that have voted for me. It's like a double whammy of me wanting them to be scum.

I historically harbour suspicion of Jimmy so I always second guess my gut. That being said my gut here is telling me he's got something hidden behind that smiling good guy exterior.

Bea has opinions about who is Civvie, but none about who is bad. A Mafia member knows every Civvie out there, so can proclaim their trust with confidence. I think bea is Mafia, and I'm going to put my vote on her for now.

*votes bea*

This post set off scumdar pretty bad. It reads tactical, mindful ... I don't like it. No other posts in Long Con's ISO trouble me. It just seems like a nervous first major action.

Probably the worst so far though has been Diiny. Syndicate players please note that even though we're both RYMers I have no idea if Diiny is the different name of someone else or is someone who started playing since I last played, it has been ages since I played on RYM. So Diiny might as well be Syndicate to me.

Diiny has made a lot of noise and really said very little. Tunneled one player who has barely posted and at the time that he chose to target her had way fewer posts than many others guilty of exactly what he accused her of including JJJ who he has allowed to buddy up to him way too easily. For a townie to let a guy like Jimmy wormtongue him the way he has is very off putting. Contrarily if you're scum you love what Jimmy is saying to you and you'd encourage it.

My vote is Diiny.

Very important post. This the first moment Mac took a stand against his team mate in LC. It's very much worth noting that despite giving LC this criticism, he is even harder on Diiny. Mac used this post to fling poop at his team mate without committing to a vote. Instead he found a different place to put his vote, and I think it was his desire to use it on someone not on his team on Day 1 (while there was still time to mount a lynch on anyone and Diiny was already under a lot of pressure).

Not only did Mac throw down on the Diiny bandwagon party of Day 1, he even tried to shove this awkward link into the post that connects Diiny to me -- without calling us team mates. This post really reads to me like someone who wants to take advantage of a typical Day 1 low-hanging fruit, and his best choice was Diiny given the circumstances of the thread at the time.

I know he eventually moved his vote to reyFuzz, but that lynch never had any real chance of mobilizing. Diiny's wagon did. I said myself on Day 1 to Diiny that I thought he'd be lynched if he didn't take care with his behavior.

- Notes later that Diiny hasn't responded to accusations

- Mac tries to implicate Diiny in his Nothing but Flowers theorizing. This is obviously B/S given LC's role flip.

Spoiler: show

Sorry bit of my post got cut off. Diiny said he was voting for BWT to save himself. But I do doubt that he'd be so blatant if he was that scum role now that I think about it.

Lynch lurker plz.

I gotta work be back later.

Back to this from the LC interaction before: Mac waffles hard on Diiny. I think this is because the Diiny wagon started to lose traction as the BWT wagon got rolling. Mac decided to involve himself in neither and went for the throwaway vote on reyFuzz.

Spoiler: show

..and yet it suddenly feels like the birdswagon. This gives me pause.

This.

Mac supports Diiny's assertion that the Day 2 bcornett counterwagon to LC seemed like a bad development.

- GTH reads Diiny good on Day 3.

Spoiler: show

What are everyones reads of the following players? whether gut reads or based on evidence/proper reasons (though state which it is based on)

JaggedJimmyJay
Rbzmncaeaei
Diiny
espers

All four are scum. Especially the second one.

Mac sarcastically calls four players scum including Diiny. I say it was sarcasm because he was town reading the first two the whole game. 3 of the 4 are are confirmed town at least from my perspective.

Spoiler: show

Based on what? Dude why are you playing so weird? You are usually better than this.

Diiny early game was strange and since getting some suspicion thrown at him has dropped post count massively, which is a pretty good scum tell.

Will you join my MattF lynchparty? It's pretty fun. We have pie and punch.

Mac turns back to old Diiny suspicion on Day 4 because he'd gone quiet. Easy target.

Spoiler: show

lol, I'm really proud that I managed to somehow convince the thread I was silenced. One of my finer moments, no doubt.

Been super busy with uni plus work experience overlapping so I haven't really been posting. I've been skimming the thread on my phone when possible, but I'm not super caught up. Gonna have to realistically choose between sorsha and devin unless I hate both cases or something

Lol you won't really have time to do that.

Diiny laments about his struggles keeping up on Day 4 and says he wants to try to make an informed choice between Sorsha and Devin -- Mac jokingly dissuades the effort.

GTH "top 6 scum read" on Day 5

- votes for Diiny on Day 5 and leaves it there while much larger wagons develop

Spoiler: show

I just want to see a coin flip tbh, I'm with macdoug on this one.

Also macdoug I don't think I've ever played with you on RYM but I like your style.

This confuses me. My vote is on you?

Diiny makes a loose comment and Mac feigns confusion.

- For some reason the espers flip makes him soften his read on Diiny.

Spoiler: show

Diiny

No Wilgy.

Mac actively resisted Diiny being his Day 6 counterwagon and wanted Wilgy instead. This honestly makes me think about Wilgy as mafia and not Diiny, I'll return to that in his analysis. This might be a contentious point though so I welcome everyone to share their thoughts. Do you think Mac was openly resisting a counterwagon of his team mate?

I don't.

- Votes Diiny for self-preservation

- Encourages Strawhenge to vote Diiny

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

Whats with the Google not that keeps viewing the thread?

Triple J, what's your reason for voting for Black Rock?

Here's some reasons.

Here's some more reasons.

What's your reason for voting for me?

Ugh, can't be bothered looking through your posts. Plus, what MetalMarsh sums up my thinking.

Also, Triple J, what's the heck is your comment on my RYM page about?

Which metalmarsh post is this, Floyd?

The annoyingly long one with heaps of spoilers.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 80#p187680 This one?

Yep, that one

Diiny's self-proclaimed town award moment. I agree with him. Floyd completely made up a reason to vote for me and Diiny didn't let him get away with that -- indeed he was the only to notice it as far as I remember.

This should be a point strongly in my favor too for those who are paying attention. The man voted for me because he liked Marsh's case against someone else.

Black Rock

Nothing

~~~

Conclusion:

I think this is probably the most conclusive spew review yet, and it points to Diiny not being mafia aligned. I will not support his lynch unless a compelling case for him being the SK can be drawn up.

[RadicalFuzz]

Top three suspects:
-Metalmarsh
-Russ
-Bullzeye

Of those three I'm only confident on Metalmarsh. Russ and Bullz have seemed strange in their interactions with other players, but my suspicion of Metalmarsh is from my direct interactions with him.

I mentioned earlier how I feel like MM is using me. I have nothing I can point to that makes me feel like this, it's a gut thing, as if he's trying to get a specific action from me. This compounds the poor impression I have of him already due to the number of grating interactions he's had with others.



Also I think that Mac so immediately changing his opinion of me, flipping between me being scum and then town within 2 minutes, doesn't look bad for me. If I was his teammate I don't think he would've been so sloppy. This is, however, with the knowledge that I'm civilian, so I can't form a completely unbiased opinion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also I think that Mac so immediately changing his opinion of me, flipping between me being scum and then town within 2 minutes, doesn't look bad for me. If I was his teammate I don't think he would've been so sloppy. This is, however, with the knowledge that I'm civilian, so I can't form a completely unbiased opinion.

I might not think you're a top two suspect anymore, Fuzz. Just wait and see what's coming up next!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew review for DrWilgy:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

Congratulations, JJJ and Wilgy!

I don't think it's that likely that JJJ, Epig and the other person all voted as baddies together. Too risky. The votes for JJJ and Wilgy seemed pretty natural to me, as I recall.

Congratulates Doc and I for our Dusk 0 elections, and then says he thinks the votes for both of us seemed "pretty natural". For reference, these were Wilgy's voters on Dusk 0 (in order):

Metalmarsh89, Ricochet, Devin the Omniscient, motel room, and birdwithteeth11

Might be worth chewing on for later.

Spoiler: show

Before any quotes, I'd like to point out an initial suspicion. It never sits right with me when someone claims that they will be changing and/or playing with a different style after role cards have already been distributed. This applies to Rico, and BWT. I'm not going to go back and try to quote the comment because I'm pretty sure it was Day 0. Rico stated that he'd be more zany and BWT followed suit, almost immediately after Rico. I do not recall BWT's reasoning for claiming a more zany (zanier? zaniest? are those actual words? they don't sit right with me.) and would like to hear about this. Also, someone correct me if my memory of Day 0 events are failing me.

I believe a factor of the "zaniness" is the ongoing contest with the prize going to the person who uses the most Talking Heads in their posts. Zanier and zaniest sit fine with me, as the comparative and superlative forms of 'zany'.

Inconsequential banter about the zaniness of Talking Heads lyrics in posts.

MacDougall

- GTH reads him bad on Day 3, never mentioned him prior

Spoiler: show

I guess those who haven't caught up might need some more context on that image. It consists of a game JJJ championed where myself, JJJ, Mac, and Golden stated gun-to-head reads on every single player with only "Good" and "Bad" as the available options, no "Neutral". As you can see, it's a little disconcerting that there was not one player that more than two of us thought was bad.

it pretty much says that one of you guys is scum and doesn't want to agree with other players that scum players look scummy. You actually look the best for giving an enormous amount of scum players. Mac looks the worst for giving only six and two if his are two of my strongest town reads(DrWilgy and MattF).

I also adore how you find sig a consensus townie. Yeah someone in the quartet is deffo scum.

Sig hasn't really done anything that I've noted as overtly bad. Convince me otherwise please instead of just laughing about the fact that others disagree with you.

Explain how having more town reads than scum reads is scummy. Never heard that one before.

Tell me again why DrWilgy and MattF are big town reads for you? Please read my post on MattF before you do though.

Townies, please stop using wifom like it's actually more than just guessing. It makes it hard to scum hunt.

Demands that Choutas expand on his town read of DrWilgy and Matt F. This is Mac's first mention of Doc in the game other than that GTH read, so it's noteworthy that he thinks this is such a significant point to address.

Spoiler: show

linki: I recall one time getting lynched by town because scum Equus made a post that was a flow chart of probabilities that led to me being scum in the majority of cases. We lost the game because she got me lynched. If you are genuinely telling me that "colours and probabilities" are enough for you to say that DrWilgy is a strong town read and that's the towniest post in the game. I might as well just not bother posting actual cases and just make up wifom bullshit about people I have gut scum reads on.

Mac totally discredited DrWilgy's first voting chart from the LC lynch by repeatedly comparing it to a moment in RYM Mafia legend (the Equus Incident of RYM #35 in which she produced a big flow chart of possible endgame scenarios and convinced town to do her bidding as mafia). This isn't the first time Mac has seen a quantitative examination portrayed in a chart or graph in a mafia game, so it's probably significant that he saw fit to hate on DrWilgy's production so much. I think it is likely to mean one of three things:

1. Mac already knows DrWilgy is his team mate and he can thus validly draw the comparison to the Equus Incident and perhaps claim significant credibility later in the event of a DrWilgy lynch/flip

2. Mac feels threatened by Doc's work and pressed hard against it to lessen the danger it poses to his team coming from a genuine source (a town Doc).

3. Mac just sees an opportunity to give someone shit and gives them shit because that's what Mac does.

Here is a link to Mac drawing the comparison, and a visual on DrWilgy's original post.

I don't think it's #2. You can see in Doc's analysis that the three names he implicated as looking the "worst" were Golden, bea, and me. All three of those names are townies, and y'all can at least be sure of two of them. Mac has no reason to feel threatened by an analysis that points town in the wrong direction. #3 is possible enough, but it seems strategically pointless. Mac was pushing suspicion on Doc for much of the game, but it started at this point when Doc was just highly unlikely to be lynched -- especially when he received so much praise for producing this analysis in the first place.

So my thoughts do linger for a long while on #1. It's not hard to view this as preliminary distancing to set the table for bigger moves later -- and we'll see how that develops as I continue.

Spoiler: show

I think we really have to lynch sorsha. I feel like it's the key to breaking the game open today. She either flips scum and leaves behind a tasty breadcrumb trail, or flips town and leaves behind a tasty breadcrumb trail. Trusting Golden again seems like a nice way to get another townie killed. We've got a scum dead inside the first four days in a large game. We can afford a tactical lynch. Sorsha is a good lynch candidate for up front scum play as well as being the best possible lynch from a tactical perspective. Short of someone saying "I am scum" my vote won't be changing today.

Sorsha's play being scum is well documented, you only have to look at her recent posts to get a sense of posting nervously as scum playing poorly with a lynch on them tend to do.

DrWilgy... Are you tunneling me because I said you were scum in that Jimmy's game? Oh my God, u suck brah.

Pretty weak sauce response by Mac to suspicion cast by Doc. Brah.

Spoiler: show

So ummm... Mac, now that we know Sorsha was civ what is the play?

Probably lynch you tbh.

Snarky. Playful. Not at all likely to propel a DrWilgy lynch.

Spoiler: show

DrWilgy, Sig... Speak.

Prods Doc and others to talk more on Day 5.

Spoiler: show

DrWilgy, Sig... Speak.

Sup?

Thanks for the response MM. I'll note it down as soon as I'm home from work.

Just wanted to say hi.

lol

Spoiler: show

Did I mention that I need a replacement?

Look, this cannot happen. Replacements aren't coming.

We've already had to modkill rundontwalk and there may be others to follow. I beg that people do not voluntarily throw in the towel this game, regardless of alignment or RL circumstances, unless they absolutely feel they have to. In doing so, the balance of the game will not be upheld. I do not want to have to modkill more players if I don't have to.

I'm less busy than I was when the game started, irl. I know you're out of replacements

Are you doing that thing where you are just not defending yourself in the hope that town will view your apathy as a town read? Because I don't find that a very townie way of defending yourself.

linki: Does Wilgy just post graphs and stats in every game. I can think of three different effort posts he's made in this game alone but he's not done much with the content he's created on any of the three of them. Just drops it in the thread like a smoke bomb and pisses off.

Throws more shade at Doc for his graphs and charts.

Spoiler: show

It should be rather obvious who I would target Wilgy...

Gives Wilgy a frank answer during Infodumpgate.

Spoiler: show

I get the exact same willies from Wilgy. Probably because I have been victimised by this kind of bullshit before.

Again emphasizes his comparison to the Equus Incident.

Spoiler: show

How did missing your night kill make you feel?

Mac, how sure of this are you?

Floyd, Fuzz, or Matt, did epi miss a night kill?

I am very sure.

Mac gives a confident report to Wilgy implicating Epi as the SK.

Spoiler: show

With the information that I believe you're trying to tell me with that, Wilgy, I don't see how that changes my conclusion. I don't have anything to work off of here, so rather than assume some hidden shenanigans I have to base my conclusions off of what I can see. You're not making me feel better by continually making vague statements that you can't or won't back up when that's a part of my suspicion against you. Until you can convince me otherwise, and I sincerely hope you do, my conclusion is that you're scum and my vote will stay on you.

Metalmarsh, I don't feel inclined to make a case that you're scum at this moment.

See, this guy gets it.

RadicalFuzz tell em all how town I am.

Mac makes this weird post at Fuzz in response to Fuzz casting suspicion on Doc.

Spoiler: show

Gonna GTH the whole mafia team without thinking about it a ton (can't at work):

Black Rock
Diiny
Choutas
motel room
Metalmarsh89
Russtifinko (I know this contradicts my prior thing, oh well)

Are you going to say Mac is bad next?

@Epi, I'm back on phone now and don't have time to quote pull. The reason I believe is because role blocks exist in this game. Psycho killer, can't submit a night action if they don't have one.

Mac, stating that you are SK on a night were there is no psycho kill, and him being a scummy scummertston, fufill all the conditions for him to either be baddie roleblocker, or in btsc with baddie roleblocker. Matt's statement of Mac is bad and Epi is SK help confirm my thoughts, and russ stating that you are most likely SK may place him in the btsc with Mac.

The stench of scum is strong here.

DrWilgy makes an assertion that I don't understand linking Russ to Mac in BTSC, and Mac just gives this brief accusatory response. This continues to be a very distancing-compatible interaction IMO.

- Scumlist on Day 6 includes Doc

Spoiler: show

Self pres voting wilgy

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

You got me excited that you actually thought I was scum, but then you don't list me in your next post. I feel neglected. I also feel annoyed that you asked me to put in work on post analysis and then call the result of that post analysis a throwaway vote. Would you rather me ignore the conclusions I've come to?

You are correct, however, that the inverse is true for you. With so many players pushing your lynch that's a slight indication that you're not scum.

Well it is a throwaway vote in the sense that it was alone. I agree with your analysis of Wilgy though. I was just starting to just name people with few votes on them and then decided to look a bit closer. You town. He scum.

Mac tries to work up a DrWilgy counterwagon to his own -- or at least he provides the appearance that he's trying to do that (DrWilgy was never in real danger of being lynched on Day 6 -- he finished with only 1 vote on him).

Spoiler: show

Self pres voting wilgy

Hey look a dismissive reaction. He must be scum.

It was true about Mac. Shall we believe him at face value here?

Spoiler: show

Diiny

No Wilgy.

My favorite post in Mac's ISO if DrWilgy is mafia. Diiny was the odds-on counterwagon, and Mac "pushed" for Doc instead. This just looks completely bogus to me. Mac knew all along that Doc wasn't getting lynched, and with that in mind he had no reason to give a shit who got lynched in his place unless one of the following two things is true:

1. Diiny is mafia and Mac wanted to protect him.

2. DrWilgy is mafia and Mac wanted to create distance from him, maintaining the stance he'd espoused for much of the game.

I have my doubts about #1. If Mac wanted to specifically protect Diiny in this scenario, then he probably could have picked a more viable counterwagon to press than DrWilgy (it had no traction at all aside from RadicalFuzz). Moreover, we can project this move long-term in the event that it succeeds: we would suppose that Diiny is mafia and Doc is town: Mac successfully generates the Doc counterwagon to save himself at the cost of a townie -- and then everyone is even more suspicious of him than before. He gets lynched promptly, and that post right there is left sitting there waiting for everyone to pitchfork Diiny right after him. It's not just WIFOM, it's stupid.

#2 seems much more reasonable. DrWilgy wasn't getting lynched no matter how hard Mac pretended to push it. He had one supporter in this cause (Fuzz) while the Diiny and Mac wagons were all moving north of the 5-vote plateau. This reads to me like another attempt by Mac to play WIFOM, but it's more transparent than most of his other WIFOM. He wants Diiny to look bad here, but I think it's Doc that looks bad.

This is another potentially contentious point. I want to hear your thoughts everyone. Please don't leave me hanging.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

Browsing over posts right now, I have a bit to do after I complete my second job today.

Mafia to do list:

• In-depth analysis of devin the omniscient
• In-depth analysis of Mac
• Bullzeye post review
• Elo post review
• Espers post review

If I missed anything or somebody has some questions please let me know.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!


I just lost my shit. I actually screamed when I read this.

Someone cool me down! Im seeing red!!

*fans Wilgy* Does anyone else need my services?

OT banter action.

Black Rock

Nothing.

~~~

Conclusion:



Break out the tinfoil, I think we have a new big time suspect! Some of this demands I reach deeper into the realm of theory than I normally do, but at this point it's clear someone has played well enough to demand that kind of investigation anyway. I think this looks bad.

Please give me your feedback everyone.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Was Choutas a wizard?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

*RoboJJJ powers down for a while*

[RadicalFuzz]

Also I think that Mac so immediately changing his opinion of me, flipping between me being scum and then town within 2 minutes, doesn't look bad for me. If I was his teammate I don't think he would've been so sloppy. This is, however, with the knowledge that I'm civilian, so I can't form a completely unbiased opinion.

I might not think you're a top two suspect anymore, Fuzz. Just wait and see what's coming up next!

That's an interesting link you've found, J3, between Wilgy and Mac. Going through Mac's possible reasons for publicly appearing to want Wilgy dead, Wilgy being civ doesn't fit nicely into place in that scenario. I don't remember exactly how long I voted Wilgy for, but it got very little traction pretty much every day. One could argue that Mac was trying for a Wilgy lynch if it was the first day that a public call for Wilgy's head had been sounded, but even then Mac didn't so much as look at Wilgy. It feels like a practiced routine. Mac votes for player X who won't get lynched, then moves to player Y who may be lynched. Either player X or Mac look good when the other flips, if they're both Mafia. An extremely low commitment stance with potentially high rewards.

[Ricochet]

Hi hi hi hi hi

JJJ, MM and... well, probably just you two... would you be willing to indulge in an exercise? I'd really appreciate a double check on this.

Take the polls, look at all the close results (such as LC vs b24, Devin vs. Sorsha, Mac vs. Diiny etc.) and make some process of elimination type calculation on which players currently alive, should you take away their vote from any particular close tally, would have potentially changed the result of the poll completely. Eliminate those players from the current roster and tell me which players might that leave, in your calculations.

---

But the thought that came to my mind just now is whether we should consider if any player putting low effort into this debate might in fact be a baddie (mafia or SK) tricking us into turning things on all sides, whilst he just votes alongside us, if it suits him...

I know this is pretty much the opposite of how the Champs final lylo trick was done (by none other than grandmaster JJJ here)...actually, let's do the opposite scenario, as well! What if a big talker is the snakecharmer in this situation?

Anyway, these are just thoughts. I don't have much time and will left to process much tonight.

This is a whole lot of nothing to be posting this late into the game, if at all

Not really, JJJ just fried some WIFOM sausages by referencing how he went in the dark, as a mafioso, and let the civs rip each other to shreds, in the Championships final game.

I wasn't implying we should just dump logic and do some thought-provoking move, right now, anyway.

I've had a bad feel for rico since my gut frowned on his wifomburgers. Recent analysis is showing a pretty soft playstyle, and that non-post set me off a bit. I need to iso this guy, but 17 pages. Maybe in this 72 hour day I'll do what, deep down, I know I must.

If my recent stuff is soft playstyle, I wonder how can I produce a hard(er) playstyle without going into a comma.

And what WIFOMburgers? I thought I pinged you rather with caveaty cakes or something like that.

---

I'll look over your reads, JJJ, but I've also woke up this morning with yet another idea for some reads, so... . Fortunately, the 72-hour frame might favor it.

[Ricochet]

Diiny, did you already or can you clarify if your N5-D6 absence was total loss of contact with the game/forum and with everything that unfolded in the game during that period?

[Marmot]

Hi hi hi hi hi

JJJ, MM and... well, probably just you two... would you be willing to indulge in an exercise? I'd really appreciate a double check on this.

Take the polls, look at all the close results (such as LC vs b24, Devin vs. Sorsha, Mac vs. Diiny etc.) and make some process of elimination type calculation on which players currently alive, should you take away their vote from any particular close tally, would have potentially changed the result of the poll completely. Eliminate those players from the current roster and tell me which players might that leave, in your calculations.

I don't quite follow you here. Could you explain it again?

[Ricochet]

Not sure I can, any differently.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll see what I can do, Rico.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I understand what you're looking for Rico, here you go:

If you remove Bullzeye's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Remove Bullzeye from Dusk 0 -- no change (no vote)
from Day 1 -- no change (no vote)
from Day 2 -- no change (solo MM vote)
from Day 3 -- no change (Russ)
from Day 4 -- no change (Devin)
from Day 5 -- *possible change* (removing Devin vote increases lead of espers, potentially causing espers lynch that was supposed to happen anyway)
from Day 6 -- no change (solo bcornett vote)
from Day 7 -- no change (Floyd)
from Day 8 -- no change (Russ)
from Day 9 -- no change (Russ)
from Day 10 -- no change (no vote)

If you remove Diiny's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- *possible change* (leaves me tied with MM for Assistant to the CEO)
Day 1 -- no change (BWT's lead too large)
Day 2 -- no change (thellama73)
Day 3 -- no change (Ricochet)
Day 4 -- no change (solo Golden vote)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- no change (no vote)
Day 7 -- no change (seaside's lead too large)
Day 8 -- *possible change* (leaves Floyd tied with MM)
Day 9 -- no change (RadicalFuzz)
Day 10 -- no change (RadicalFuzz)

If you remove DrWilgy's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- no change (MM and BWT)
Day 1 -- no change (BWT's lead too large)
Day 2 -- *change* (Long Con's role allows bcornett wagon to overtake LC wagon)
Day 3 -- *possible change* (leaves Golden tied with Ricochet)
Day 4 -- no change (Devin)
Day 5 -- no change (bcornett)
Day 6 -- *possible change* (leaves Mac tied with Diiny)
Day 7 -- no change (bcornett)
Day 8 -- no change (MM)
Day 9 -- *possible change* (leaves sig tied with RadicalFuzz)
Day 10 -- *possible change* (leaves Choutas tied with Bullzeye)

If you remove JJJ's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- no change (Mac and Epignosis)
Day 1 -- no change (sig)
Day 2 -- *change* (Long Con's role allows bcornett wagon to overtake LC wagon)
Day 3 -- no change (Ricochet)
Day 4 -- no change (Devin)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- no change (Diiny)
Day 7 -- no change (seaside's lead too large)
Day 8 -- *possible change* (leaves Floyd tied with MM)
Day 9 -- no change (RadicalFuzz)
Day 10 -- no change (Bullzeye)

If you remove Metalmarsh89's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- *possible change* (leaves himself tied with JJJ)
Day 1 -- no change (Russ)
Day 2 -- no change (seaside)
Day 3 -- no change (no vote)
Day 4 -- no change (JJJ)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- *possible change* (leaves Mac tied with Diiny)
Day 7 -- no change (seaside's lead too large)
Day 8 -- no change (Russ)
Day 9 -- no change (RadicalFuzz)
Day 10 -- *possible change* (leaves Choutas tied with Bullzeye)

If you remove reywaS's / RadicalFuzz's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- no change (no votes)
Day 1 -- no change (no votes)
Day 2 -- no change (no votes)
Day 3 -- no change (no votes)
Day 4 -- no change (JJJ)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- no change (DrWilgy)
Day 7 -- no change (DrWilgy)
Day 8 -- no change (DrWilgy)
Day 9 -- *possible change* (leaves sig tied with MM)
Day 10 -- *possible change* (leaves Choutas tied with Bullzeye)

If you remove Ricochet's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- *possible change* (leaves JJJ tied with MM)
Day 1 -- no change (bea)
Day 2 -- no change (DrWilgy)
Day 3 -- *possible change* (leaves Golden tied with himself)
Day 4 -- no change (Devin)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- *possible change* (leaves Mac tied with Diiny)
Day 7 -- no change (Choutas)
Day 8 -- no change (MM)
Day 9 -- *possible change* (leaves sig tied with RadicalFuzz)
Day 10 -- no change (motel room)

If you remove Russtifinko's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- no change (no votes)
Day 1 -- no change (Matt F)
Day 2 -- *change* (Long Con's role allows bcornett wagon to overtake LC wagon)
Day 3 -- no change (Sorsha)
Day 4 -- *possible change* (leaves Sorsha tied with Devin)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- *possible change* (leaves Mac tied with Diiny)
Day 7 -- no change (seaside's lead too large)
Day 8 -- no change (motel room)
Day 9 -- no change (motel room)
Day 10 -- no change (motel room)

It's possible I made some error(s) along the way. Check yourself if you so desire.

[DrWilgy]

Happy Halloween everyone! Or at least to those who celebrate it! Happy Saturday to those that don't!

[Ricochet]

Thanks a lot for that, JJJ, the stats look about right. (Except lol, I doubt Dusk 0 votes count in any way).

One thing to keep in mind is that on Day 3, the vote range was back to 0, because of LC's flip, so no votes could have migrated.

My search didn't come with any conclusive results either. Who does that make you personally keep in mind as the certain someone?

Before anyone raises objections or expresses confusion, this is an exercise, in my view, not meant to create second doubting in the scum hunt, as much as helping one's perspective in hunting for a candidate that could prove to be a baddie with no other statistical or thread-/game-evidence-based interference, instead of candidate that could be a baddie, but could also fit the description of a certain someone. Lynching people in the latter category, with the risk of an accidental mislynch, can cost us the game at this stage.

Hope this is clear and yet ambiguous enough at the same time.

[Tangrowth]

Note that despite extending this Day phase to 72 hours, I am not extending any nonparticipation standards.

Anyone who fails the nonparticipation standards is still eligible to be modkilled, in addition to those who break the rules. However, as expressed last Day period, I will no longer be modkilling players by request.

If you know you have obligations and are afraid you're going to mess up any of the nonparticipation standards, as always, you must PM me and Sloonei to avoid my wrath.

Happy Halloween!

[Ricochet]

Note that despite extending this Day phase to 72 hours, I am not extending any nonparticipation standards.

Anyone who fails the nonparticipation standards is still eligible to be modkilled, in addition to those who break the rules. However, as expressed last Day period, I will no longer be modkilling players by request.

If you know you have obligations and are afraid you're going to mess up any of the nonparticipation standards, as always, you must PM me and Sloonei to avoid my wrath.

Happy Halloween!

Make me!

Happy Halloween to everyone halloweening!

There's been a big accident in the capital, with casualties after a fire broke out in a poorly-equipped club, so a lot of halloween enthusiasts around here are probably less in the mood now (or don't have clubs to go to, since they've been closed symbolically today). Truly grimm.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I forgot motel room since he isn't in the poll.

If you remove motel room's votes from the polls, these are the effects:

Spoiler: show

Dusk 0 -- no change (Mac and DrWilgy)
Day 1 -- no change (sig)
Day 2 -- *change* (bcornett wagon overtakes Long Con wagon)
Day 3 -- no change (Epignosis)
Day 4 -- *possible change* (leaves Sorsha tied with Devin)
Day 5 -- no change (espers)
Day 6 -- no change (Diiny)
Day 7 -- no change (seaside)
Day 8 -- no chaneg (Russ)
Day 9 -- *possible change* (leaves sig tied with RadicalFuzz)
Day 10 -- no change (Bullzeye)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Before anyone raises objections or expresses confusion, this is an exercise, in my view, not meant to create second doubting in the scum hunt, as much as helping one's perspective in hunting for a candidate that could prove to be a baddie with no other statistical or thread-/game-evidence-based interference, instead of candidate that could be a baddie, but could also fit the description of a certain someone. Lynching people in the latter category, with the risk of an accidental mislynch, can cost us the game at this stage.

I think I understand what you're trying to say. I would counter with this: our situation is potentially so dire (if it's 5 vs 3 vs 1, or even 6 vs 2 vs 1) that we can't afford to give anyone a free pass unless there is compelling evidence that they might be "a certain someone".

For example, entering this phase I'd have said the two most likely candidates for Love for Sale were Strawhenge and RadicalFuzz. I am not confident enough in assigning that role to Fuzz to keep him out of lynch candidacy though.

As of right now I really am feeling the best vibes about a DrWilgy lynch, so I really encourage people to review the case I put up. Bullzeye is also a good pick.

[Tangrowth]

What kind of spooky music are you all listening to today?

As has become tradition for me, Tangerine Dream (especially the early stuff) is already and will continue to be on heavy rotation for the evening.

[Ricochet]

Before anyone raises objections or expresses confusion, this is an exercise, in my view, not meant to create second doubting in the scum hunt, as much as helping one's perspective in hunting for a candidate that could prove to be a baddie with no other statistical or thread-/game-evidence-based interference, instead of candidate that could be a baddie, but could also fit the description of a certain someone. Lynching people in the latter category, with the risk of an accidental mislynch, can cost us the game at this stage.

I think I understand what you're trying to say. I would counter with this: our situation is potentially so dire (if it's 5 vs 3 vs 1, or even 6 vs 2 vs 1) that we can't afford to give anyone a free pass unless there is compelling evidence that they might be "a certain someone".

For example, entering this phase I'd have said the two most likely candidates for Love for Sale were Strawhenge and RadicalFuzz. I am not confident enough in assigning that role to Fuzz to keep him out of lynch candidacy though.

As of right now I really am feeling the best vibes about a DrWilgy lynch, so I really encourage people to review the case I put up. Bullzeye is also a good pick.

Well, as I've said, the compelling only goes as far as bringing it down to a few names. Nobody is a definitive match.

I feel Love for Sale can only be perceived through strictly personal deductation (i.e. if one feels his bid went through and noticed patterns how his vote being followed up by someone), so I don't think it can be discussed in collective, with good results.

I'll look over your cases, just gimme an hour or two to finish studying.

What kind of spooky music are you all listening to today?

As has become tradition for me, Tangerine Dream (especially the early stuff) is already and will continue to be on heavy rotation for the evening.

mmmmm. Stuff like Zeit never requires any particular occassion to be put on around here.

As for other music, I'd probably pick something in the ambient or psychedelic range. Or even some goofy, but trippy hipster music, like Foxygen. Or veer in the extreme with some experimental shit, like Keiji Haino or Ground Zero.

Did freakin' Ghost play at Colbert?

[Tangrowth]

What kind of spooky music are you all listening to today?

As has become tradition for me, Tangerine Dream (especially the early stuff) is already and will continue to be on heavy rotation for the evening.

mmmmm. Stuff like Zeit never requires any particular occassion to be put on around here.

As for other music, I'd probably pick something in the ambient or psychedelic range. Or even some goofy, but trippy hipster music, like Foxygen. Or veer in the extreme with some experimental shit, like Keiji Haino or Ground Zero.

Did freakin' Ghost play at Colbert?

Same here, I certainly listen to Tangerine Dream more often than once a year, but it's become mandatory every Halloween, when typically I'm inside just studying or chilling anyway.

Indeed, seems they did. I wasn't aware!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew review for Ricochet:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

As for rico - he seems fairly rico for me atm. I don't have a good feel for his civ vs his bad game as I've only played a few with him and tbh, I don't remember where he ended on any of them. (This is my fault not his) but his meta seems to be what I'd expect from him.

I snipped the quote for clarity. Here, bea defends Rico while not defending him at the same time. (This opinion of mine is new upon this reread, actually) If either bea or Rico turn up bad, then this kind of statement would make me look at the other.

I almost got Rico lynched for this on Day 3. My eyeball still twitches violently when I look at it. There is potential that LC intentionally planted this though. I just don't know him well enough to be a judge of his bad guy prowess, because it'd be a very good decoy.

Spoiler: show

Is banter early voting common habit on RYM? I'm oscillating between reading bcornett24's vote as such and wanting to hear more from him on why he desired to make such an early vote for no serious reasons.

this vote seems to be generating some content so it seems to have served its purpose

By some content do you mean how it made some of us wonder qu'est-ce que c'est with your vote and some of us even voting for you after your move? Is this the content you imply you intended to achieve?

This post made "qu'est-ce que c'est?" ring through my mind over and over, even as I read on. I would Like this post if we had that here.

Inconsequential Day 1 banter.

Spoiler: show

Roxy, I'm glad to see you took your vote off me, but you're not allowed to placehold.

Why not? You were my placeholder so far should I return my vote there?

When you allow changeable votes then expect people to vote in wonky ways until we get closer to lynch time.

Still reading and thinking.

Actually, I just mean voting for the non-player option, but this got stuck in my head, probably from Recruitement, as voting that as a placeholder.

6. No self-voting, even as a placeholder. This is considered an illegal move in this game as much as voting for the non-player option.

Good eye, Rico. Roxy must be punished!

Playfully tries to get Roxy in trouble in response to Rico telling her the rules.

Spoiler: show

Sorry to see you go, BWT. Now Rico will just run away with the contest.

Banter.

MacDougall

- GTH reads Rico good on Day 3, no mentions prior

Spoiler: show

Jimmy I don't agree with your case on Ricochet if it's based on the fact that he is using Talking Heads phrasings in his posts. Your difficulty following what he's posting is because of that.

Jimmy I don't agree with your case on Ricochet if it's based on the fact that he is using Talking Heads phrasings in his posts. Your difficulty following what he's posting is because of that.

That would be a dumb thing to case someone for, I agree. The biggest issue by far is the forced link LC attempted to draw between bea and Rico -- see the portion of my case with all the emoticons.

Tell me what you think.

Well, you did bring it up. If you think it's dumb then why have you brought it up?

I don't think that your linking idea is as huge as you do. It's something. But we have pages and pages of sorsha and golden related content. Not to mention we have an FZ case on Russ that's gathering momentum. Do you think your linking case is more of a valid reason to lynch than any of the other three cases? You are assuming that Long Con didn't just do this to get a townie lynched after he dies?

Mac resists my Day 3 case against Rico, first by countering a point that I never actually made (Talking Heads phrasings). He pooh-poohed my proposed false link implicated through LC and implied I wasn't considering the alternative (that LC did it on purpose to smear Rico). Part of me does think Mac is spewing Rico town here, because if my call to lynch Rico had succeeded and he'd flipped town, comments like this one were preliminary discredits. It's a tough call though.

Spoiler: show

Rico are you being intentionally disingenous? Jimmy's case on you revolves around Long Con having a scum team read on you and bea. Based on his obs of Long Con he thinks it more likely that you are is his scummate than bea.

I read the entire thing as Jimmy getting to the end of his analysis and not having good obs on anyone and forcing himself to have a scum read to validate the whole project in his mind tbh.

But your response to the pressure has got my interest piqued. You have two votes on you when there are three others with more and you are chucking a tanty. That has spooked scum written all over it. Especially since you seem to have misread Jimmy's entire point.

Mac throws a little vague shade at Rico on the same day while suggesting I was just forcing a scum read out to justify my workload.

Spoiler: show

Hmmm

I kind of want to lynch ricochet. The Talking Heads lyrics in every post looks like role responsibility and there is only one role in the game that isn't defined on page 1. Psycho Killer?

Still Day 3 and Mac starts talking like a Rico lynch would be acceptable, even associating him vaguely with the SK role. This is a good look for Rico -- I don't think Mac changes his mind about his team mate when Rico really could have been lynched here the day phase after he'd just lost Long Con. That's foolhardy even for him. Instead I see this as Mac finding any reason he could think of to take up with an ill-fated non-mafia wagon (perhaps even pursuing the SK who was a threat to his team too).

- During Mac's SK hunt on Day 5 he very mildly implicated Rico by referencing the conversation he had with Choutas about the SK

Spoiler: show

Perhaps you can try making a case against rico and getting the rest of us to comply with it rather than asking the serial killer to target them and playing a retirement gambit over it.

That would be the expected behaviour anyway.

linki: Possible MattF. Also possible that they've failed twice and are on their last chance saloon tomorrow night. So either we've lost our vig or our vig is in a bit of trouble.

This was in response to Choutas's Letter to the SK. Matt F referenced this too earlier in the game, suggesting it was odd that Mac gave Choutas shit about not casing Rico while ignoring the other names. Mac is the grandmaster of WIFOM so I refuse to read into this. Null.

Spoiler: show

Ricochet that's an interesting reaction to a player saying you did something you did not do (MattF). I would have expected more aggression than nervous backtracking. If he did that to me I'd have called him a dickless wonder.

Soft Night 5 attack on Rico.

Spoiler: show

Now that being said, Espers could be town and as things happened the lynch may not have mattered one way or the other to the scum and all of this could be meaningless. But I'm softened on Metalmarsh and Diiny and my town reads of Rico and MattF are strengthened because of this.

I still don't really understand the deduction Mac was making here, but whatever it ends in a "strengthened town read" on Rico.

Spoiler: show

It also makes JJJ extremely unlikely to be scum since he was pushing the shit out of it.

And 3J keeps stressing how civilian you are.

I noticed that, too.

I guess that makes you guys literate. Congrats.

Mac gives Epi and Rico a pile of sarcasm. I think when he treated Golden and Epi this way it was a matter of his ego getting the best of him against two other visibly confident competitors not on his team -- Rico might be another valid example.

Spoiler: show

epignosis

Answer to Rico's assessment or die.

It would be impossible for me to refute his post. His post is an explanation of things that occurred that concludes with him believing I am scum. It is still largely driven by a belief that LC requested to be bussed.

If a guy goes to lengths like that to come up with a scum read to validate his gut read then what can I do aside from say no to it?

I will point out that his post begins with a suggestion that we change where we are looking and then declares me scum. Pretty sure players have been looking at me for days.

My vote is epi. I am convinced that epi has a killing role. If you want to not look silly as per your earlier question to me then you should take him off your wont lynch list.

I will continue to make a mix of serious posts and joke posts until my demise. But don't let epi get near lylo.

I prompted Mac to answer to Rico's accusations on Day 6 when he was being dismissive and this was his response. He discredits Rico's case on the grounds that it's based on an unproven premise (LC was bussed) and was forced to validate a gut read. This is another instance where I think Mac might be spewing Rico town -- he isn't suspicious of Rico at all for "forcing" a case, he attributed it entirely to townie stubbornness (the same way he treated Matt F). I don't think this is how he handles a massive case thrown his way by a team mate.

TheFloyd73

Nothing

Black Rock

Spoiler: show

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 40#p184571

I decided to link to this post instead of quoting it since it's so damn long. I think a lot of thought has gone into this post. Two people that stand out to me is Epignosis and Russ.

I'm not used to Epi have a positive look at LC. He often thinks LC is bad and leaves him alone as neutral. With all the crap that was going on with LC I'm surprised he didn't jump on the lynch train himself. He has gone after him for less.

Russ didn't seem to want to make up his mind. Now I would have to go back and read Russ to make up my mind on him as well but if I recall his was a last minute vote changer as well.

After reading this particular post I have no suspicion of Sorsha. Sorsha and LC have been playing together for eons and they respect each other. LC has been really bad at reading her, she is a hard player to read. I believe that to be an honest assessment.

Sorsha
votes LC... for CEO spot (good leadership)
D1 implies she read something into LC's bait tactic, but later questions his choice for bea; finds his replies unrealistic
doesn't find LC to have backpedalled
===
> agreed with b24 on BWT's case, voted BWT

Just a copy and paste I didn't keep the fancy colouring.

This is not a new tactic LC has used and he often does try it as a civvie, not surprised she believed him. Hell I would have.

Anyways, I'm not voting for Sorsha today. I'd be surprised if she was bad.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 40#p184571

Still thinking about this post actually. I'm just loving it, it's very helpful for me. Thank you.

Negative
Matt
finding his ping "phony" in joining sig's wording case

MacDougall
suspicious of motel room for bringing up Flowers tactics (although this seems like self-aware fake sussing, imo, since LC was Flowers)
voting MacDougall D2

Can the green part of this be explained more? Is this Macs suspicion or LC's?

Uhh pretty sure that's in LC's section, so it's LC's suspicion on MacDougall.

Basically both Mac and motel brought up some interpretations of what Flowers might have done with his D1 vote and then LC sussed them both for talking about it. I already pointed out this suspicion looks fake, since LC was of course Flowers himself. But it still counts as LC putting heat on Mac for this.

I was confused on where motel room fit in under Mac, that's all.

BR heaped praise upon Rico for his first big compilation of interactive reads. Matt F read this as BR supporting a team mate, I don't. I read it as BR trying to get on the good side of a high-effort non-mafioso by interacting directly with his immense workload. I have a lot of experience personally with bad guys doing this in response to my hugemongous analyses in games, so this resonates with me quite a lot. Good look again.

~~~

Conclusion:

This is about as conclusive as the Diiny review was. I don't think Rico is likely a member of the mafia team, and this has even quelled my inner tinfoiling a little bit. He could still be a valid SK candidate just like anyone else I've reviewed, but I doubt he's mafia.

[Turnip Head]

[long ass post]

What's this I hear about you breaking my record?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[long ass post]

What's this I hear about you breaking my record?

This record makes me hate myself, but thanks a lot! :P

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia spew review for Metalmarsh89:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

All I did was go into offline mode and open up some pages from the previous day. I'm pretty sure anyone has the ability to do that.

Cheater!

I need to figure out a way to prevent this from working.

So I'm not really sure how to get around this, but I trust that everyone will not engage in this behavior, just as if I would hope that players do not break the "NO BTSC" rule.

The threads have been removed from viewing for a specific purpose, so please don't use backdoor ways to view them.

I appreciate that Metalmarsh89 was forthright about it and brought this to public attention, so despite engaging in it he will not be punished. However, going forward I would appreciate if both he and others did not do this.

Thanks!

What about taking screenshots of the polls and keeping them for reference, and saying in the thread, "As I recall, X had 4 votes and Y had 3" etc, effectively putting out the poll for public analysis?

This is really it, and it's only indirectly relevant to MM. Probably no insight to be found.

MacDougall

Spoiler: show

Would you join me in a vote for Russtifinko?

Sure, would you join me in a vote for reywaS?

Cute little exchange of people pursuing lurker lynches on Day 1.

- Eyerolls MM for calling Floyd a town read, MM did so immediately after Mac gave everyone shit for that. This might be somewhat insightful if you know MM well enough to gauge whether he might be the sort to put up a joke like this about his team mate in response to a different team mate. Eh.

- GTH reads MM good on Day 3.

Spoiler: show

If Mac was involved in the challenge, then he's definitely the SK, because Mac's (or whoever the SK is) challenger definitely DID NOT win the Day 4 challenge.

Ya all can do what you wish, but I'm tellin' ya, he's the SK and I think we should lynch him.

So you're saying that Sorsha, Found a Job, targeted Mac and someone else last night. The challenge was something related to "posters" or "memes." So the SK must've been targeted by Sorsha and won the challenge. The poster Mac made stood out to you as a likely challenge. That sounds pretty logical, actually.

It's all a little bit too likely isn't it. Almost like it was a plan all along by the actual serial killer.

Okay, back to lurking. I trust you idiots will make the right decision.

You can't be the serial killer if you're mafia right?

I'm pretty sure that's not possible but we'll need the mod to confirm because lol.

MP, Sloonei can the mafia also be the serial killer?

Mac responds to a soft, jokey accusation by MM with weird non-denying-his-mafia-alignment joke.

Spoiler: show

Matt F you should be mod killed for sucking at Mafia. When I flip your penis will shrivel up inside you from embarrassment and it will never come out again.

So here's a strange theory...

The kill that didn't work wasn't actually performed by Psycho Killer but by the vig who has a 50% chance of missing and it was just made to look like Psycho Killer because of some other role?

Seems legit. No need to thank me fellow townies.

Some other role = what?

I dunno. I'm sure in this crazy game someone has that ability. Let me see.

Mac makes a vague statement, MM prods him to expand, Mac fails to come through.

Spoiler: show

Alright peeps, I gotta go but I'll certainly be back later (yay!)

Metalmarsh - I'm real sorry, dude, I'm just super excited by finding the SK (I'm pretty sure of it), so sorry for being a dick with that last response.

Haha, no worries. I know I said I would read everything that I missed out on while I was gone. However, I know if I take the time to read everything at once, I definitely won't be able to process most of it, and I probably will have less motivation to participate.

I have a better theory for there being two kills.

Girlfriend Is Better – Because of its hypnotizing, persuasive big suit, it cannot be lynched. However, if it is targeted at night with a power, it has a 50% chance of affecting another randomly selected civilian as well.

SK targeted this character. It affected another random civ but one of them survived due to the fact that this role;

This Must Be the Place (Naive Melody) – Can protect one or two players from nightkills each night; if protecting two players, both players must be from the same forum. If it protects two players, then the subsequent night it can only protect one player from the same forum or two players from the opposite forum. It may choose to protect itself, but once it does so, all further protections have a 50% chance of failure.

Protected them.

Yes, my theory is a thousand times more likely than Matt's insane dumb shit.

Matt's theory was good, there was just one hole that we could thankfully see.

Your theory is good too. I didn't bother looking at why the second player survived, because I know there are at least a handful of roles that could have an impact there.

My theory is no theory. It is what you refer to as explanation.

Mac is dissatisfied with the language used by MM to half-support him against Matt F's Mac-as-SK theories. It might be interesting that Mac essentially took a little good press and demanded it become better press. I'm not sure he'd literally ask his team mate to support him even harder. Hard to say.

Spoiler: show

Theory ==> suggestion ==> explanation ==> _____

What comes next Macdougal? You got it figured out? You got it figured out?

MacDougall being the last townie standing while a whole bunch of dumb shits fall by the wayside due to playing like idiots is what comes next.

Turns into semi-jokey banter.

Spoiler: show

Cool now do me.

Your vote on Sorsha.

Your theory that you have taken as fact.

Your shift in playstyle from scumhunting to shit-flinging. Rather than defend yourself from Matt's theory, you came up with a new (albeit reasonable) theory to try to disprove him. You have pushed extremely hard back against Matt, but without having any interest in lynching Matt. I don't believe that sort of effort would come from a civvie mindset.

Hmm I feel like all these reasons are non genuine in nature. My vote on sorsha ... okay me and 9 others. My theory I have taken as fact? Care to elaborate? I've not legitimately taken it as fact?

My shift in playstyle? A result of boredom.

How can you say that "Rather than defend myself from Matt's theory, you came up with a new theory to disprove him."? If that's not a reasonable response what is? How does one defend themselves from an insane theory other than by telling the guy his theory makes no sense and then finding the more likely one? What exactly about that isn't logical?

I have pushed back against him hard because he is incorrigible. I have been on him all game for tunneling people and now he's started tunneling me for a bullshit reason. You will find that when I see people I think are townies playing poorly, they always cop my wrath.

But that second to last point worries me. You have added a perfectly reasonable response in as a reason to have a scum read on someone and for that you have really attracted my attention.

Mac takes some criticisms thrown at him by MM and turns them back at MM. The language here is an odd juxtaposition of soft and severe: he is only vaguely attacking Marsh but he's doing so with big language like "really attracted my attention". This isn't all that different from the way Mac treated criticism from Long Con. This interaction appears to be compatible with Mac and MM as team mates. The discussion continues here with each point being met with a counterpoint until eventually Mac produces a GTH top six scumlist which includes MM.

Spoiler: show

What does it mean to you that Macdougall now thinks that Epignosis is the PsK, and is still hunting for the PsK?

What?

You've called two different players SK's today.

I guess that's roughly equivalent to the 15-player mafia team you mentioned.

Cool, good to see that you aren't paying attention. I haven't called anyone else an SK since I realised that epignosis is 100% without a shadow of a doubt* the serial killer. Please don't say things that are actually not true and then tell others that they are, at least not about me. That'd be sweet.

*I'm not really 100% convinced (more like 97%), but I feel like I need to communicate that rather than let what I think is obvious exaggeration for humorous effect go unfettered into the scumosphere where the scum players (such as aforementioned Metalscum89) will pounce on the obvious joke and use it against me.

MM gives Mac more crap about his broad-spectrum SK hunting, and Mac responds with this explanation and namecalling "Metalscum89". The antagonism is mutual, but the language does make it appear a bit cooked at least on Mac's side.

Spoiler: show

Isn't it strange that nobody from motel room down has a vote on them? Almost like players started doing reads alphabetically and got hung up on what they saw from players early in the list and have given a pass to those at the bottom.

Upside down ISO analysis incoming.

I brought this up like 13 hours ago dude.

Spoiler: show

Now that being said, Espers could be town and as things happened the lynch may not have mattered one way or the other to the scum and all of this could be meaningless. But I'm softened on Metalmarsh and Diiny and my town reads of Rico and MattF are strengthened because of this.

This again. Still no idea what Mac is talking about. Says his read has "softened" on Marsh, which in this context I think means it got worse?

Spoiler: show

If you guys want to lynch me tomorrow I won't fight you as long as you promise me one thing.

After I flip town, MattF is not allowed to play mafia on this forum for 3 months.

linki: Oh no you said Occam's Razor. Here comes Epi.

Now you're intimidated.

If you say so.

Here's something to chew on. This relies on Occam's Razor quite a bit.

I looked back through the role list. Drugs appears to be the most likely impact on the lynch of Devin because it directly applies 2 votes to Devin's total if he was targeted. Also recall that Drugs will add 2 votes to each subsequent lynch of the targeted player, not just the following day. On Day 5, Devin was lynched even though he appeared to be behind in the lynch 8-6 to espers.

But on Day 4, Devin lost in the lynch to Sorsha 10-9. Again, if Devin was targeted by Drugs before Day 4, then he probably should have been lynched on this day, but Sorsha was lynched instead. This would suggest the Devin was targeted by Drugs on Night 4. But why would Devin be targeted by Drugs on the night after he gained 9 votes and almost won the lynch? What do y'all think? Why toss the two extra votes his way? Why use an every-other-night power on a player with a lot of suspicion around them instead of on another player who you expect to last longer in the game and also be an effective force?

Probably to ensure a townie lynch in case there was a scum player close to being lynched.

linki: Sick, Matt's a gambler! I like it. Let's do it. I'll fetch the rope.

Marsh gave Mac a pretty scathing diss here: "now you're intimidated". If this post had come from Epi or Golden, Mac's responses would have probably been laced with ego and sarcasm. In response to Marsh though he was very subdued.

- Here Mac references my Long Con interaction analysis of Mac to sell Marsh on his town credentials. Mac is clearly setting me up to take the blame when he flips scum. About Marsh though, I guess it's a decent look that Mac felt the need to produce something to influence MM's vote beyond just more back-and-forthing.

Spoiler: show

If Jay didn't have a meta-read on you, he wouldn't have said this and this.

Using meta to dismiss scum reads on me is one thing, but to reduce his town read of me down to that is non genuine.

MM discredits some of my defense of Mac which were meta-relevant and Mac asserts that meta wasn't the entirety of the defense. That was technically true, but that he had to push that point on MM is another decent look.

Spoiler: show

Don't you have a townread on MacDougall, Jay? Why is he not on that list?

Reads change. Fools stick to their day 2 reads. What a bizarre and naive question to ask.

Linki: would I not be info dumping?

Mac jumps in to white knight me when MM asks me a relevant question while I was running Mac through a failed reaction check. This probably says more about me than MM though.

- Mac again includes MM in a Day 6 scumlist

Spoiler: show

I would say the scum are just hiding their votes on non viable candidates and lying low mostly. I would say there are two scum at most voting for me, a serial killer, two OMGUS votes and elohcin.

I'm not a scum, serial killer, OMGUS, or Elohcin.

Nah you are one of those.

Pseudo-banter.

Spoiler: show

Mac, why would you self-preserve vote DrWilgy?

Reckon I can get the sucker lynched.

Mac tries to sell his self-preservation vote on DrWilgy when prompted by MM.

Spoiler: show

linki: Metalmarsh, if he sent in a PM saying he wouldn't kill, how does that explain anything? Who said that it was a definite missed PM?

Continues to expand on his batshit end-day case against Epi, again when prompted by MM.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

Whats with the Google not that keeps viewing the thread?

Triple J, what's your reason for voting for Black Rock?

Here's some reasons.

Here's some more reasons.

What's your reason for voting for me?

Ugh, can't be bothered looking through your posts. Plus, what MetalMarsh sums up my thinking.

Also, Triple J, what's the heck is your comment on my RYM page about?

Which metalmarsh post is this, Floyd?

The annoyingly long one with heaps of spoilers.

Floyd justified a vote for me by referencing a case made by MM... against seaside. There might be something to be said about Floyd specifically siding with any case proposed by MM when a ton of people were giving me shit at that point.

Spoiler: show

MetalMarsh

Day 8 vote for MM. This might be an important moment, because it came at a time when Floyd's lynch was not at all developed yet. In fact if the final tally is to be taken as it appears (always hard to say when non-final votes dropped), Floyd's vote was the 2nd final vote for MM and it came before any of the final votes for himself. It was also quite early in the phase (sixth vote overall). There's something to be said about Marsh being the primary counterwagon to Floyd on Day 8 and Floyd contributing to that counterwagon before it even had to be a self-preservatory vote. He never moved it, so he might not have been around the thread.

Actually scratch that, Floyd was present at EOD and did not move his vote. It should also be noted that there was a viable third wagon during this period for Russ. The wagons finished at 5 for Floyd, 4 for MM, and 3 for Russ.

Black Rock

Spoiler: show

This is an extremely entertaining way of dealing with low participation.

Black Rock and fingersplints, you two should just vote now for your top suspect just in case you might miss the vote again.

I haven't decided yet.

I deserve to die for not completing my punishment.

There, I remembered.

MM prompts BR (and splints) to place their votes, probably to avoid modkill dangers. BR hasn't decided on who to vote for.

~~~

Conclusion:

This one might be the least conclusive. It's kind of all over the place. If MM is mafia, then this was some of Mac's best work in this thread, making it very difficult to get a clear read on this interaction. There are a few moments that make me feel decent about MM and a few others that make me feel bad. He's the wild card in this game I think.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Summaries of how the spew reviews made me feel about everyone via rainbow (specifically pertaining to mafia-alignment candidacy):

Diiny
Ricochet

motel room
Russtifinko

Metalmarsh89

Radical Fuzz

DrWilgy
Bullzeye

[Strawhenge]

This post is in red.

[RadicalFuzz]

For what it's worth I think if there's any interactions that lack intentional WIFOM they'll be from Floyd. That makes MM look better to me. Still want him lynched though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For what it's worth I think if there's any interactions that lack intentional WIFOM they'll be from Floyd. That makes MM look better to me. Still want him lynched though.

Understandable perspective. Something about MM unnerves me thoroughly but I can't quite figure out what -- hard to even call him the SK as far as I can tell.

Do you have any significant misgivings about the people I ranked in the green/blueish areas of the rainbow? I don't want to make one crucially wrong read that ruins the game.

[Ricochet]

Ok, so one by one:

motel - I agree (of course, saying "I agree" comes with a perpetual disclaimer of never being at ease whether you are JaggedJimmyJay or ScummedScummyS..cay? at work; it must be said, your townread of motel is the strongest I can recall since...well, your townread of Mac; but enough of this, everything from now on will be interpreted for the sake of interpretation)

...as I was saying, I agree the spew and interest from the baddies in motel is pretty low and never sounding too deliberate in looking that way. I went back on my notes and I don't have much "mafia on motel" suspicions either; Mac came off very distant at that time, despite motel doing him a solid one with the townreading and such, which probably made me suspicious at that time; overall, however, if I'd have to lean between Mac leaving spew claims on civilians or rather on his teammates, I'd go with the first, especially since you say he is very wicked with the WIFOMeat.

Did you happen to revise the perspective of motel's take on baddies or motel's votes and reasonings in general? Do you feel good about those as well or worse? For me it's worse, but I can certainly consider whether he's just a sinner (aren't we all) instead of a mafioso caught with naughty moves.

Anyway, he's off the poll for toDay, for better and worse, so at best he'll be up for debate tomorrow again. Hopefully with another caught baddie in the mix.