[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[Tangrowth]

[Ricochet]

Stop spamming, MP, unless you want to join and help us catch the baddies.

[Tangrowth]

Stop spamming, MP, unless you want to join and help us catch the baddies.

[Marmot]

Stop spamming, MP, unless you want to join and help us catch the baddies.

Gonna catch 'em all.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The talk about sussing gameplay claims can be tinfoiled as distancing, sure. Let's not forget Wilgy went through with this, voting BWT, which LC wanted nothing to do with it. I'm open to tinfoiling this.

HOWEVER, we must review what Wilgy did to vote LC, eventually, which, according to my notes, was picking up on LC's bea case not sounding genuine. He didn't build the case right away, but returned with it later on. Is this a moment of hesitation and fine tuning from a baddie Wilgy or a genuine case making, nonetheless? JJJ, what do you think about this?

Let's take a look at how it started:

Ok, just now catching up. (I think I did alright on my exams) Voting LC for now, not reading the interactions with bea to be genuine. Still really far behind, though.

Doc was still "really far behind" in his effort to catch up early on Day 2, but he was still completely willing to drop a vote on LC for a very specific reason. He made a point of saying this as early as he could in the day phase. If there was a coordinated scum effort to throw LC under the bus (whether they actually vote for him or not), then this is the kind of thing I would expect to see from his team mates: deliberate anti-LC commentary regardless of other content. This is Doc's first mention of LC. He wasted no time.

We can't say he just wasn't there on Day 1 when this developed either. He made posts on Day 1 after LC's anti-bea maneuver had gotten into motion.

We can review the later expansion of his case against LC here and here. Does it look good? Certainly. Why am I less impressed than you might think I should be?

Because this case was already in the thread. I know it pretty well actually -- it's mine.

Moving on.

Mac spewing Wilgy's analysis efforts can be a possible #3 (discrediting someone by referencing a previous scummasterjob), but I remember not being satisfied with such analysis as well. That particular analysis by Wilgy simply didn't sound like anything grounded in opinions and also produced a worst result that proved, nonetheless, to flip civilian. If that analysis would be, alone in a vacuum, Wilgy's sole contribution, I'd suspect it very much myself - which would lead me to believe that MacBaddie took distance and threw shade. It doesn't make me lean on a conclusion, based on other facts, but this is my take on it, nonetheless.

Further spewing makes me wonder if Mac didn't just played the victim card, just like he did with Epig, Matt, me, etc. Slight lean in Wilgy's favor.

Mac can't have been playing the victim because DrWilgy did not victimize him. In this first analysis of Doc's, Mac was not included because his vote wasn't on either of the wagons being assessed. If Mac was not personally threatened by Doc's production (as he was personally threatened by you, Epi, and Matt), then this line of thinking cannot apply.

Mac cheerleading Fuzz suspecting Wilgy for "vague statements" and probably CEO hints makes me rather look back at Mac - Fuzz interactions with a certain eyeballin'. If Mac answered earnestly at Wilgy's questioning, why would he agree with Fuzz on Wilgy being suss for said questioning? It's different accusations (Mac accused Wilgy of bullsuit analysis, Fuzz of vague statements and hints), yet Mac feels the need to switch on to Fuzz's charge. Hmm. Feels like spew. JJJ, what do you think of this particular thing?

This would be another example of sloppiness on Mac's part (the second such example specifically as it pertains to Fuzz). Mac cheerlead (past tense) a few people in this game, especially me, and I don't think that's a reason to think worse of Fuzz -- whether the motivation for his cheerleading made sense or not. I really think Mac is more likely to be consistent in his "reads" on a team mate than to be all over the place. I have labeled Fuzz as a person of interest so I can understand your misgivings, but I also must say that he feels like a low-hanging fruit too. Even more than Bullzeye who seems to be just checking the boxes he needs to check to stay alive.

Unfortunately, the couple of posts you're interested in the most, JJJ, are the ones I don't have a clear viewpoint on. Mac pushing for Wilgy instead of Diiny, at the time of Diiny counterwagoning forming, could still have been Mac's way to seem genuine.

By genuine I mean that, should Diiny counterwagon have worked and Diiny would have flipped civ, Mac would have been able to say "don't look at me demanding any save through Diiny. I told you Wilgy, didn't I?"

Actually, wait, no, I think in theory he could have chosen either Diiny (he voted for him D5) and Wilgy (he had a long suss history)... Hmm, maybe this requires an analysis on whether Mac dropped the Diiny case visibly on D6, in order for his best shot at seeming genuine being push only for Wilgy, at least for the moment.

Mac's "ok I'll vote Diiny" shrug moment definitely makes me think Diiny is non-Mafia, at least, so Mac didn't gave a shit. However, the "Wilgy moment" still retains WIFOM inconclusive qualities.

I think you've sort of argued yourself into my perspective, or at least a less confident expression of it. I agree that this exchange makes Diiny look non-mafia, and it doesn't necessarily make Wilgy look non-mafia. That distinction is important. There are two schools of thought for why Mac bothered to do this at all, and each of us has focused on one:

1.) Mac is pretending to push DrWilgy's lynch knowing that it's bandwagon with no traction, as a last-ditch hard distance from the same team mate he'd been antagonistic with for much of the game (my theory).

2.) Mac is pretending to care about who his counterwagon is because that promotes a town-oriented appearance for him to help him survive (your proposition).

#2 is plausible enough, sure. Here's why I am not confident in it: Mac might be a chaos poster, but he is also calculated. For the entirety of Day 6, Mac was likely to be lynched. That wasn't in doubt until the EOD frenzy when the Diiny wagon mounted to fullness -- Mac's mindset had to be moving towards anti-spew (a scum's efforts to leave an errant trail in his wake pre-flip). This is why I think he was trying to make Diiny look bad by "protecting" him from becoming the counterwagon and that didn't work. He specifically called for Doc instead, a player he had suspicion on prior to support that notion sure, but he had suspicion on quite a few people. He picked DrWilgy.

I doubt he did so at random.

This all is slighty more complicated and less eloquent than you've put it, JJJ, and I agree it could be tinfoiled. Not sure I can put my finger on it, though.

I've stated that it's more theoretical than most of my cases tend to be -- but look at where we stand in this game. Someone who has a good case in their defense is bad.

I'd really like to know, JJJ, if you feel just as bad about Wilgy based on how Wilgy developed his LC and Mac cases. I have my doubts that we can work solely with one-way sussings. Maybe we can indeed get lucky and confirm a tinfoil this way, like you're attempting to suggest, but luck is not what we need to count on here.

I'm not playing to get lucky. I'm looking for a real connection, and I think it's ripe for the taking. I've stated above that his moves against LC do not inspire me and why they don't. Talk to me about that. Doc's work against Mac is probably the best case to be made in his favor, but it still is not hard at all to find the mafia angle -- he didn't move against Mac until the end of Day 4 (chaos posts had begun) when the climate of the thread in general turned against Mac. BR didn't give Mac crap here and neither did Floyd. Do you think his whole team left that alone, or did at least one of them try to blend with the rest of the players against him when it was a seriously noisy moment in the game? Doc "tried to get Mac lynched" on Day 4, but just like Mac against Doc on Day 6 -- that never had any traction. It's close to meaningless. That was the phase when Sorsha and Devin combined for like 95% of the votes, and Wilgy ended it with his vote on Devin.

Did Doc maintain his aggression against Mac into Day 5 and try to make a truly viable lynch candidate out of him?

I would vote for Mac, but bcornett needs to die first so... bcornett

He moved against Mac on Day 6 too by placing the first vote on him and he mostly maintained the beef while he was present (at one point he posted a rainbow with Epignosis ranked below Mac). He left his vote there which is lovely, but he was gone from the thread by the time the Diiny counterwagon was really moving -- and even if he'd been there, could he justify moving his vote as any alignment?

~~~

I also threw some poop at DrWilgy in this phase before I even mounted the case, and then I mounted the case. I know he has seen all this, but he has gone totally silent. You shook, Doc? You've been throwing shade at me all game long based on the vaguest things, well here's a dose of substantive shade for you.

[DrWilgy]

Just voted MM so I can see the poll.

Linki: not shook, just busy again. I've had Halloween junk and abunch of driving. Gotta drive back to houston again later today D:

[DrWilgy]

Also, can I have an example of the vague things I've thrown at you?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, can I have an example of the vague things I've thrown at you?

Well this will be easy.

Day 5:

JJJ is probably scum. Only 55% sure though.

Day 7:

I'm suspicious of JJJ, but between bcornett and JJJ, I'd rather have JJJ. Bcornett is the worse of two evils.

*Wilgy presses the big red button*

We're to Day 7 at this point and this is all you've said against me. You'd also vaguely defended me and vaguely nulled me prior to/after/between these. The read is not developing in any logical direction.

Day 9:

Anyone willing to lynch JJJ today? I do not want Fuzz to be lynched at this point, and will save him if needed.

I think I now understand why JJJ didn't chime in on my thoughts from previous on the SK.

???

Day 9:

JJJ there's a relationship between you, and several other players. Some are dead now, but I'm pretty sure you established that relationship. I want to know from you why those players.

What in the bloody hell are you talking about?

His declaration, that made me put him back in most likely townie territory is that he responded to a previous question of "Who do you think the SK is" with JJJ, and I can believe that.

This makes no sense. Someone thinks I'm the SK (which you've again vaguely supported for reasons I can't know) and that gives you town vibes? Mafia aren't looking for the SK too?

Day 10:

I think I finally figured out what Doc was trying to convey to me with the whole "why they have in common" and not "what" thing. Was that meant to be a rhetorical point Doc, one that I cannot expound upon publicly but still mull over privately? Is that what you intended of me?

Not really, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on why they had things in common.

Night 10:

JJJ, how are you so sure mafia are in the lead?

This is the only time you've even half-accused me of something that I can actually see in the thread in your posts. And what is it? An assertion that I scumslipped in my five billionth post on Night 10.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This might be a pretty good time for a post.

[DrWilgy]

Oh yeah, forgot about some of that.

I'll address it later. I'm runnin on 3 hours of sleep and still have to drive 3 hours to houston again.

A question in the meantime though. Chou stated the chance me being SK was high. What does everyone else think about my chances of being SK?

[motel room]

I live.

[motel room]

Weird that there's no votes on Bullzeye today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I live.

You should do things.

[motel room]

I live.

You should do things.

Im reading. I had a fierce drinking weekend and am hungover at work but praise Phar Lap tomorrow is a public holiday.

[motel room]

A question in the meantime though. Chou stated the chance me being SK was high. What does everyone else think about my chances of being SK?

One-in-however-many-of-us-are-left-minus-me. Are people pushing for you being scum and you're asking about SK odds? (i haven't fully caught up but that "question in the meantime" feels like ducking and weaving)

[motel room]

What's your goal here Jay?

Why on earth would I broadcast that? You've seen how I play this game, make an educated guess. I've given you a fair request, could you please reference the post you mentioned?

I'm looking for it, and asking you meantime.

I know you're perfectly capable of painting someone bad by making them case themselves, and I'm checking to see if that is the case here. I have every right to ask you a question, so don't sound so aghast.

I also know you're probably probing for reactions. I'd rather it be this possibility.

Metalmarsh defence turned up to 11 on page 186.

[Diiny]

Oh yeah, forgot about some of that.

I'll address it later. I'm runnin on 3 hours of sleep and still have to drive 3 hours to houston again.

A question in the meantime though. Chou stated the chance me being SK was high. What does everyone else think about my chances of being SK?

This is a bad post. I agree with Motel here. I'm very interested in what you have to say, and I think I'm gonna give you a little ISO.

Whilst the pressure's on, I'd like to remind everyone that Wilgy's day 1 consisted of him voting BWT for day 0 reasons and nothing else, barely engaging with the scumhunting efforts of the other days. I'll have more once I start my ISO.

Motel: top suspect; top townie

[Diiny]

And I hope you all had a Halloween!

[motel room]

Motel: top suspect; top townie

Top suspect is still Bullzeye or Russ. In fact I'm gonna pop a vote on Bullzeye right after I click submit. And I really doubt we're seeing a scum jjj, his hunger is second to none last few days. Ricochet is second top town.

By "town" I guess I mean not scum cos I can see anybody here being SK potentially. The quieter ones more likely.

[motel room]

Who's yours btw Diiny?

[Diiny]

Feeling good about you and J, I don't agree w/ you about rico.

Rad is bad in my book, but I'm looking at wilgy due to the current happenings.

[Diiny]

And talking of wilgy I have a point I'd like to discuss after wilgy's had his time to shine.

[Diiny]

I see, I didn't think about [reasons for bwt to play differently] . Normally players stating that they will be doing something different after roles have been delivered is a scum flag for me. If a player has the intention to change their style and it's not mid game yet, why not declare it in the signup page pre-role distribution?

I'd like to hear BWT's thoughts on what I have said.

This is the final stance Wilgy had on BWT, with a vote registered for BWT that he could've changed at any time. And the only reasoning provided for the vote was that he doesn't like post-signup thread deceleration of gameplay styles.

[Diiny]

Also looks like Wilgy was very keen for that extra voting power on d1... wonder why :0

[Ricochet]

Also looks like Wilgy was very keen for that extra voting power on d1... wonder why :0

What extra voting power?

[Diiny]

Also looks like Wilgy was very keen for that extra voting power on d1... wonder why :0

What extra voting power?

It was d0. My bad.

[Diiny]

Yeah, looking back wilgy's vote for LC smells like a bus. The whole 'MAN I'M GONNA REVIEW A BUNCH OF PEOPLE WHOOPS RAN OUT OF TIME AND THE ONE GUY I DID REVIEW AND VOTED FOR (DESPITE ME SAYING I WAS GOING TO REVIEW A BUNCH OF PEOPLE) WAS SCUM? HOW HANDY! thing is bad.

So now that a continuation of my writing has been made irrelevant (In the best way possible), I'm going to bed! See y'all tomorrow!

Wilgy, why does one guy flipping scum excuse all your other suspects?

[Ricochet]

Also looks like Wilgy was very keen for that extra voting power on d1... wonder why :0

What extra voting power?

It was d0. My bad.

Still confused, I must say.

[Marmot]

Also looks like Wilgy was very keen for that extra voting power on d1... wonder why :0

What extra voting power?

It was d0. My bad.

Still confused, I must say.

Did he vote for extra-voting power in the Day 0 thread?

[Diiny]

My frankly inspiringly stupid misinterpretation of:

Also, I will give my 2 votes to the first 2 people to vote for me.

*Wilgy's head pokes out above his cubical. He runs over to BWT, his hair and clothing are now looking spiffy once again.*

Vote registered for BWT

But Wilgy was really after that ACEO.

[Diiny]

I would vote for Mac, but bcornett needs to die first so... bcornett

lol

[Ricochet]

Also looks like Wilgy was very keen for that extra voting power on d1... wonder why :0

What extra voting power?

It was d0. My bad.

Still confused, I must say.

Did he vote for extra-voting power in the Day 0 thread?

The one that didn't exist?

Option 1: A player of your choice may ask the host whether a certain player is a certain role. That player will be told yes or no.
Option 2: All female players gain temporary BTSC for one cycle. Info-dumping and role outing is not permitted.
Option 3: Every player picks a city. Players will live in that city during the subsequent cycle.
Option 4: A player of your choice is consumed by insanity, the effects of which are unknown.
Option 5: Five players of your choice receive a rock. These rocks can be thrown at another player to block them.
Option 6: A player of your choice can use their night power twice during the subsequent Night.
Option 7: A player of your choice can track another player. During the subsequent Day, the player tracked may send a message to the tracker.
Option 8: A fake account can post and cast a vote the subsequent Day.

[Ricochet]

Be back tomorrow.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Diiny, what do you think about the point in pink text? It's the most significant hangup for me in calling Fuzz a mafia read.

[Diiny]

Do you have the right pink thing or am I missing what relevance this has to fuzz

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Motel: top suspect; top townie

Top suspect is still Bullzeye or Russ. In fact I'm gonna pop a vote on Bullzeye right after I click submit. And I really doubt we're seeing a scum jjj, his hunger is second to none last few days. Ricochet is second top town.

By "town" I guess I mean not scum cos I can see anybody here being SK potentially. The quieter ones more likely.

If Bullzeye is mafia, how do you think his recent content would look as a townie?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do you have the right pink thing or am I missing what relevance this has to fuzz

Yeah wrong spew review.

This one.

[Diiny]

It was possible Mac was on the way out there, right? He had to self pres and everything. He may have been wifoming it up on a teammate; it's certainly nothing read-changing to any significant degree imo.

[Diiny]

JJJ, did you ever answer the third of the three questions you posed to the thread?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It was possible Mac was on the way out there, right? He had to self pres and everything. He may have been wifoming it up on a teammate; it's certainly nothing read-changing to any significant degree imo.

The possibility exists, but I don't much care about what is possible. I care about what is likely. I think the posts by both players in that exchange are indicative of a non-team mate relationship, at least enough so that it casts doubt over the evidence that does work against Fuzz.

This lynch absolutely must go right. I am doing everything in my power to ensure there is no tunneling and that there is no stubbornness.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ, did you ever answer the third of the three questions you posed to the thread?

Yes, before I asked the questions. That post was what inspired me to ask everyone else.

Clicky

[Diiny]

I agree about likelihood rather than possibilities, but if there's a townie post in a sea of scummy stuff you don't call someone townie because of the strength of one post unless it's very, very townie. The townie possibilities are less likely not because of the post itself but because of his other posts. It is more likely for that post to be made by scumrades (which is less likely only in isolation) than it is for all of the other posts to be made by townie teammates.

[Diiny]

I think wilgy has a lot to answer for, and whether I vote for him is going to be based on how he responds to the veritable mound of shit waiting for him. Certainly a possibility, though. Keeping my vote on the Radster for now.

[Russtifinko]

Note that despite extending this Day phase to 72 hours, I am not extending any nonparticipation standards.

Anyone who fails the nonparticipation standards is still eligible to be modkilled, in addition to those who break the rules. However, as expressed last Day period, I will no longer be modkilling players by request.

If you know you have obligations and are afraid you're going to mess up any of the nonparticipation standards, as always, you must PM me and Sloonei to avoid my wrath.

Happy Halloween!

Saw this as I'm reading to catch up...idk how long it's been, but just in case, I am here!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I agree about likelihood rather than possibilities, but if there's a townie post in a sea of scummy stuff you don't call someone townie because of the strength of one post unless it's very, very townie. The townie possibilities are less likely not because of the post itself but because of his other posts. It is more likely for that post to be made by scumrades (which is less likely only in isolation) than it is for all of the other posts to be made by townie teammates.

There isn't just one townie post in Fuzz's history. There are a ton of them that bear a town appearance at least which is why he was a consensus town read until Floyd flipped mafia. What do you feel Fuzz's responses to accusations have lacked? I'm not implying they didn't lack anything, I am just peering deep into your mind.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It's crucial that we all maintain a consistent dialogue until this phase ends. We need a final tally that is safe from any and all shenanigans. The current spread is worrisome for that reason, but only if it persists the whole phase. I encourage everyone to use your votes however you feel is prudent for now, but keep in mind at EOD that we can't afford to be this spread out.

[Diiny]

I feel like wrt to responses to accusations there's been a reliance on wifom. I'm not sure what you mean by 'what they lack', but they've failed to make me feel any townier about him. Especially his responses to the floyd thing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I feel like wrt to responses to accusations there's been a reliance on wifom. I'm not sure what you mean by 'what they lack', but they've failed to make me feel any townier about him. Especially his responses to the floyd thing.

I think this conversation has highlighted an important point: you've asked me if one townie post in a sea of scummy posts should equal a town read.

Is Fuzz's handling of the Floyd scumslip the only scum point in a sea of town points?

[Russtifinko]

Ok, very quick hits before I get into responding to things:

1) RIP Straw.
2) Thanks for the extra 24 hours, benevolent hosts!
3) Looks like I need to read Wilgy. Will do that after responses, if he doesn't have a million bajillion posts. I have also been planning on rereading Fuzz and haven't done it yet. I know he has a lot of content, but I'll skim at the very least.

Also, looks like both Bullz and Wilgy are putting off producing requested content? Wilgy at least seems to have specific real life things do to, but still not a terrific look. Bullz just seems a bit overwhelmed by the game, which is understandable from a real life perspective but looks very bad from a mafia game perspective, when one of the major points against him is that he isn't producing valuable content.

[Diiny]

That was an example on how I treat reads, though I do think there's more than one scum point in fuzz's history. There's no townie sea. see: Faux arguments with mac to distance themselves and eventually voting wilgy over mac. His total scumminess outweighs the total towniness to the point that, with regards to a specific post, the less likely explanation for it becomes more likely when you look at the whole picture.